Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are entering the shadow period before the next US Fed review on Thursday (NZT) and activity is restrained. The Bank of Japan is also doing its regular review and expectations of changes driven by its new governor are uncertain now. But we can first report that the NA...
Sep 18, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1116
The Chinese people are very concerned about their country's tense relationship with the United States and it's a factor in weak consumer confidence, says Beijing-based David Mahon. Mahon, a New Zealander who has lived in China since 1984, is Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management. He spoke to interest.co.nz in the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast . Mahon says during a recent visit to a mountain village in Yunnan Province, one of the more remote places in China, he had di...
Sep 18, 2023•58 min•Ep. 1115
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is showing signs of struggle, and yet the Wall Street-anticipated signs the US would slow in 2023 are yet to emerge . But first, this coming week will be dominated by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday (NZT). Also on Thursday, Fonterra will...
Sep 17, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1114
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central banks in both China in the EU have been active overnight, both dovishly. But first up, initial American US jobless claims last week came in little-changed at +220,000 so there are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, also very little-changed. Their long-awaited...
Sep 14, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1113
New Zealand ought to change its political party funding system so it encourages politicians to connect with as many ordinary New Zealanders as possible, Max Rashbrooke argues, whilst noting it's not in political parties' interests to do so meaning such a change probably won't happen anytime soon. Rashbrooke, a senior research fellow in the school of government at Victoria University, spoke about political donations in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast as the October 14 electi...
Sep 14, 2023•36 min•Ep. 1112
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes are in the latest inflation updates. But first, mortgage applications in the US fell -0.8% last week, following a -2.9% drop in the previous week and hitting a new 27 year low, since December 1996. This was even after adjusting for their Labor Day holiday week...
Sep 13, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1111
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Australian business and consumer sentiment remains stunted. But first, American retail sales last week as monitored for bricks & mortar stores on a same store basis, rose +4.6% from the same week a year ago, the best gain of the year and indicating demand is back ...
Sep 12, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1110
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news both China and Japan are making background moves to raise the value of their currencies after long weak periods. But first, American inflation expectations for the year ahead were little-changed at 3.6% in August from 3.5% in July, but it was the first increase in five ...
Sep 11, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1109
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a bit of price stabilisation is returning to the Chinese economy. Chinese consumer price inflation came in little-changed for August. It was up +0.3% from July, and up only +0.1% from a year ago. Milk and lamb prices fell in the month, beef prices were unchanged from Jul...
Sep 10, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1108
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more of the same - continuing American economic strength, worries about China's prospects. The number of American filing for new jobless claims fell to +190,000 last week which is their lowest since February. A rise to +234,000 was expected so this is a much better-th...
Sep 07, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1107
The Commerce Commission should be looking closely at banks' overall interest margins in its market study into personal banking services, says David Cunningham. Cunningham is CEO of Squirrel Group, a mortgage broker that also offers lending and investing products and services, and a former CEO of The Co-operative Bank and manager at Westpac New Zealand. In the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Cunningham talks in detail about how interest rates are set for borrowers and sav...
Sep 07, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1106
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world's largest economy keeps on throwing up unexpected positive surprises. First up today, there was a very strong August services ISM PMI out for the giant American economy. It is a widely-watched and influential metric and it rose unexpectedly with its strongest...
Sep 06, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1105
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the return of Wall Street from their long weekend holiday has been a quiet one, although Saudi Arabia greeted them back with a move that raised oil prices. But first up, the overnight dairy auction delivered a +2.7% rise in overall prices, headlined by the +5.3% rise ...
Sep 05, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1104
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it will be worth keeping an eye on Chinese housing sales in September. But first we should note that the rest of the world has basically had its feet up overnight, and there is little new data, or events to report. China has nothing to say (because it won't say anything...
Sep 04, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1103
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a slight easing of labour market pressure in the US, but the long predicted recession still seems far away. But first in the week ahead, it will get started slowly with the US currently on its long end-of-summer Labor Day weekend. We won't see them back in internation...
Sep 03, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1102
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American inflation and consumer spending remain at levels above where the US Fed needs them to be. But first, actual American jobless claims came in at a low 192,000 last week, lower than expected and there are now under 1.8 mln people on these benefits. This is a good w...
Aug 31, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1101
New Zealand's anti-money laundering (AML) regime could be simplified and improved, although care would need to be taken to avoid jeopardising our good standing in the international community, not to stop information flow to the police, and to avoid creating loopholes criminals can exploit, says leading AML lawyer Gary Hughes. Hughes speaks about the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act, which has just notched up 10 years since taking effect, in a new episode of interes...
Aug 31, 2023•42 min•Ep. 1099
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there are worries the Aussie energy transition is falling short and they could face tough choices as early as this summer. But first, US mortgage applications rose +2.3% last week from the prior week and mortgage interest rates held steady at a very high 7.31% plus poi...
Aug 30, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1100
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news our credit rating has been held with a stable outlook, and WMP prices didn't fall further, as expected. But first in the US, job openings edged down in July and the number of people quitting their jobs fell. They declined by -338,000 from the previous month to 8.827 m...
Aug 29, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1098
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the pressure remains on the Chinese economy and Beijing seems committed to tough it out without its usual debt-inducing stimulus strategies. But mainland China equities as well as those in Hong Kong jumped more than +1% yesterday after Beijing announced new measures to ...
Aug 28, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1097
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the next 15 weeks will set the tone for 2023. So far in 2023 the benchmark equity market is up +15% (S&P500), benchmark bond yields are up +70 bps (UST10yr +20%), and the USD is unchanged. First we are now in the last week before the America's Labor Day holiday, sign...
Aug 27, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1096
Ten years from now Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich wants New Zealanders to be thinking about their big five, rather than big four, banks, with Kiwibank in there mixing it with the four Aussie owned banks and not the smallest among them. In the latest episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast , Jurkovich speaks about where the now 21 year-old Kiwibank has come from, where it's at, and where it's heading. This comes with the bank having just posted a 34% increase in annual profit to a record hi...
Aug 25, 2023•47 min•Ep. 1095
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that all the 'rich men north of Richmond' have now decamped to Jackson Hole WO, and are awaiting Fed boss Powell's speech. So today we are left with the granular details of the American economy - which is actually doing remarkably well for the non-rich men south of Richm...
Aug 24, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1094
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the northern summer data is full of variety today, some positive, others not so much. The early look at the American PMIs shows a small slip in August with their services sector expanding slower, and the contraction in their factory sector easing slightly. Both measure...
Aug 23, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1093
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global financial markets await signals from Jackson Hole at the weekend. In the meantime in the US, there was an unusual surge in retail sales at bricks & mortar stores last week, reporting their strongest week-on-week gain in four months (+2.9% from a year ago). ...
Aug 22, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1092
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the cost of money is ending its extended 'cheap' period. There is a whole generation unused it its 'normal' level where the benchmark is about 5% with lending costs above that. We start today noting that American bond yields are moving ever higher. The yield on the UST ...
Aug 21, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1091
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news questions are deepening about the Chinese economy, and how it will extract itself from the on-going funk - or whether it can. But first, we are now in the heart of the northern hemisphere annual vacation season. Anything happening now is reactive to the general inactivit...
Aug 20, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1090
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news UST yields are now near a 16-year high on fears American interest rates will stay higher for longer. And EU bonds yields are moving up too. Higher interest rates will weigh on asset valuations, especially real estate and commercial real estate in particular. But first, n...
Aug 17, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1089
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news tensions are spilling out in China over their struggling property development and shadow banking industries. But first, US mortgage applications slipped yet again last week, the fourth week in a row it has done that. And that was undoubtedly because mortgage interest r...
Aug 16, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1088
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the economic clouds are darkening for New Zealand. First up today, the overnight dairy auction was a terrible one . Prices fell -7.4% in USD terms and -4.8% in NZD terms, principally on an almost -11% dive in the dominant WMP price (-8.5% in NZD terms). Remember these...
Aug 15, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1087
