Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China's woes are affecting us, devaluing our currency to a nine month low. And the AUD is suffering similarly. But first today, we can report that American inflation expectations continue to retreat, falling to their lowest since April 2021 and are now at 3.5% in July f...
Aug 14, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1086
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news this week, all eyes will be on the Wednesday RBNZ Monetary Policy Review, and especially the regulator's forecasts (even if no change in the OCR is anticipated). Elsewhere, potential market moving data might come from the US Fed's release of the minutes of is July meetin...
Aug 13, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1085
New Zealand survived a tight electricity supply situation on Friday morning - the 12th so far this year. It happened after Transpower warned the residual quantum of electricity available for use was sinking towards the 200 megawatt danger mark between 7 am and 9 am. In the end, the 200 megawatt level was not breached, and even if it reached zero, unused reserves would still be available. But it is a predicament that keeps Transpower on constant alert, which it warned about in May and again a mon...
Aug 11, 2023•41 min•Ep. 1084
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news market chatter is building for a Fed rate pause. First up today, the American consumer inflation rate came in at 3.2% in July , almost exactly as expected (3.3%). Base effects and rising rents were behind the tick up, and it marks a halt in the 12 consecutive months of d...
Aug 10, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1083
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news it may be the summer holidays in the northern hemisphere, but that isn't making the economic news quiet. While they are holidaying the commercial world seems to be bleeding a bit. Mortgage interest rates jumped in the US last week, taking the 30 year benchmark to 7.09%...
Aug 09, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1082
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that China's recovery has stalled, and that is affected many trading partners linked closely to it. But first, Moody's has cut the credit ratings of ten mid-sized American banks and said it may yet downgrade some of the US's largest lenders. It said it is concerned ab...
Aug 08, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1081
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are upbeat, positioning that the economic threats will mostly be diffused. First up today, a look at the US Q2 corporate earnings being reported . So far Q2 earnings for the S&P 500, are down sharply from the same period a year ago. But both the number of ...
Aug 07, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1080
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news necessity is moderating China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy - even though the original 'wolf warrior' is back as the Chinese foreign minister. Late last week China announced that they will drop its tariffs on Australian barley imports that have been in place for three years...
Aug 06, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1079
Like it or not banks are a cornerstone of our economy, meaning they'll need to be a key influence in the push to decarbonise. One of the ways BNZ is trying to do this is through membership of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA). Speaking in interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast Rebekah Cain, BNZ's Chief Sustainability Officer, describes the NZBA as "a group of banks committed to transition the finance sector to net-zero." Finance, she notes, is "a key lever to pull in order to shift the real eco...
Aug 04, 2023•32 min•Ep. 1078
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the down-graded Fitch rating is costing the US higher wholesales interest rates. But to be fair, the benchmark UST 10 year yield is only back to what it was in late October, but that was a post GFC high. And perhaps we should note a comment by Warren Buffet overnight: "T...
Aug 03, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1077
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Fitch downgrade has cast a pall over financial markets today, trumping any data. Equity markets are grumpy, bond yields are rising and the US dollar is rising. But first in the US, we get their July labour market details on Saturday NZT and today the precursor ADP ...
Aug 02, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1076
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Australians look like they have finished their rate-hiking cycle. But first up today there was another dairy auction overnight and it wasn't a good one. Overall prices fell -4.3% in USD terms, although they were down a much lesser -2.1% in NZD terms. It was the do...
Aug 01, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1075
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a quiet end to July as the northern hemisphere holidays in the heat, has brought out some tame second tier data. And China chipped in with an underwhelming announcement of how they will deal with their slowdown. First, although it improved in July from June, the Chicago...
Jul 31, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1074
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today the fizzling Chinese economy is looking for a big policy boost from Beijing. In Beijing, they said that at 4pm today (NZT) a senior official will announce new measures "to restore and expand consumption" in the government’s latest effort to engineer a revival in their economy. There have ...
Jul 30, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1073
At the heart of suggestions the so-called BRICS countries may develop a new international currency system based on gold that's separate from the US dollar are some simple necessities, according to Nathan Lewis. The United States-based Lewis spoke about this issue in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast . Lewis runs New World Economics , is an author, a former analyst and money manager for institutional investors, and a fellow of the wealth and poverty programme at the Discovery ...
Jul 28, 2023•32 min•Ep. 1072
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with a lot of "good news" on the economic front in the major economies. First, new orders for US durable goods jumped +4.7% in June from May, the most since July 2020, following an upwardly revised +2% rise in May. They are +9*.3% higher than year-ago levels, and handily exceeding...
Jul 27, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1071
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation is hard to beat and the US Fed is unsure it has done enough yet. First up today, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by +25 bps to 5.25%-5.5%, in line with market expectations. It was a unanimous decision. That takes them to their highe...
Jul 26, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1070
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more evidence and expectations that the "impending recession" might be avoided. First up today, the IMF has raised its global growth forecast . They say the world's economy is expected to expand by +3% in 2023, slightly higher than the 2.8% seen in their April fore...
Jul 25, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1069
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economic slowdown is coming but it might not be like every other slowdown. There is more evidence that the giant American economy isn't expanding as fast as previously. First, the National Activity Index released by the Chicago Fed delivered a weakish result ...
Jul 24, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1068
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is starting to roll out more industry support to bolster its flagging economy. But first, this coming week will be a busy one. And it will be dominated by the US Fed rate decision on Thursday (NZT). Analysts expect a +25 bps rise to 5.50%. The Americans will also r...
Jul 23, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1067
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Australia may be facing more rate hikes. But first, the tight American labour market is still showing its resilience. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell slightly last week to 258,000 when a seasonal rise was anticipated. However the number of people...
Jul 20, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1066
2023 has become the year of AI. Hype and doomsaying about AI, or artificial intelligence, is hard to avoid. A key catalyst was OpenAI's release of AI chatbox ChatGPT late last year. So should we be excited or fearful about the rise of AI, or both? I discussed this with Michael Timothy Bennett, an AI researcher at the Australian National University, in the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast . Bennett is recently returned from a major Artificial General Intelligence conference in Stockholm ...
Jul 20, 2023•29 min•Ep. 1065
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is struggling to attract new foreign direct investment. But first, American new housing starts were expected to be a bit soft in June, but they fell more than expected, down -8.0% from May and down -15.3% below the June 2022 level. It was weak all round with sing...
Jul 19, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1064
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central banks may be increasingly happy with the tame data released today. But first, today's dairy auction was a lame affair. Analysts had expected prices to rise +1.9% but in the event they fell -1.0%. Buyer demand is soft even as indications grow that the global mi...
Jul 18, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1063
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news those unlisted Aussie funds are going to get a hurry-up on proper valuations from their prudential regulator via their superannuation system. But first, in the US, the New York State manufacturing survey dipped in July from June but the shift was in fact minor and much ...
Jul 17, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1062
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are getting nervous about their exposure to office buildings in the commercial real estate sector. But first, after retreating over the past year, average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were unchanged year-on-year in June. There were rises, includin...
Jul 16, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1061
Central banks' use of monetary policy to fight inflation is working, but in New Zealand we need to look at evidence demand and prices are being impacted rather than current inflation data, says ANZ Banking Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga. Speaking in the Of Interest podcast , Yetsenga says news of an inflation fall in the United States suggests the Federal Reserve is close to an extended pause having increased its Federal Funds Rate to between 5% and 5.25% from 0% to 0.25% since March 202...
Jul 14, 2023•28 min•Ep. 1060
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news more rises to our OCR may be off the table now but that doesn't mean our interest rates will stop going up. This coming week, the big international focus will be on the US CPI change for June. We get that on Thursday, NZ time and an increase of 3.1% is expected, down fro...
Jul 09, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1059
Sam Bankman-Fried was a nerdy billionaire and rockstar of the crypto industry, living a lavish lifestyle in the Bahamas, with celebrities advertising his cryptocurrency exchange FTX as he gained influence in Washington DC. Then it all went wrong. FTX collapsed, leaving an US$8 billion hole and lots of angry customers. FTX was placed in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Worse for Bankman-Fried, he was charged with fraud and extradited to the United States. He's alleged to have used billions of do...
Jul 07, 2023•35 min•Ep. 1058
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that hotter-than-expected American jobs data raises the likelihood of higher interest rates for longer. But first, US jobless claims rose sharply and by +251,000 last week to leave 1.74 mln people on these benefits, the highest it has been since February. However America...
Jul 06, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1057
