Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news long bond yields are rising sharply again. But first, US factory orders rose in May by the same rate as in April, but that disappointed analysts who were expecting a better improvement. But at least it was a rise, countering the PMI signals. Orders for aircraft and ele...
Jul 05, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1056
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the earth hit a heat record yesterday. But first, it’s a public holiday in the US, so financial markets will notice much lower volumes. Second, there was another dairy auction this morning and lower price levels are setting in again. Prices fell a sharpish -3.3%, much...
Jul 04, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1055
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news commodity prices are weak today as global factory activity slows. And some banks have run out of places to invest their excess cash holdings. But first in the US there were two factory PMIs out for June today and this sector is back at its lowest level since May 2020. T...
Jul 03, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1054
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news climate changes are making the reading of recent economic signals harder because the whole context is changing. In the week ahead, the non-farm payrolls report and FOMC Minutes will be taking the headlines in the United States. This will be followed by the release of ISM...
Jul 02, 2023•9 min•Ep. 1053
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news bad-news bears can't catch a break at present. Overnight US data was quite good again, and is seen underpinning more US Fed rate hikes with the next one on July 27 NZT and just before their summer holidays. US jobless claims came in lower than expected with a decrease of...
Jun 29, 2023•7 min•Ep. 1052
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world is waiting to see what direction inflation will take from here and how fast it will move. But first, American mortgage applications rose again as another indication the US housing market is coming back to life. The rise from the prior week was minor, and this...
Jun 29, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1051
The world needs to move to a new economic system where growth is replaced as the ultimate goal by meeting human needs within ecological limits, argues Gaya Herrington. Speaking in the Of Interest podcast Herrington explains how working at the Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, during the Global Financial Crisis led to her realising how interconnected things were. When subsequently studying sustainability at Harvard University, she decided to revisit the famous 1972 book by a group of Mas...
Jun 28, 2023•41 min•Ep. 1050
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a raft of strong first-tier US data. Their expansion cycle isn't done yet. New orders for American factory durable goods jumped +1.7% month-on-month in May, following an upwardly revised +1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a -1% decline. T...
Jun 27, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1049
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is struggling to regain its economic momentum. And perhaps the US is as well. Although not as weak as the May result, the June factory survey by the Dallas Fed in America's oil patch remains weak. Shrinking new orders are the key feature. Loan demand is weak . Fac...
Jun 26, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1048
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news events in Russia are something of a gawkish sideline for us. It is China we should be watching. But first this week, in the US the spotlight will be on the Fed's big bank stress test results out Thursday, NZT. There will also be data released on May personal income and s...
Jun 25, 2023•8 min•Ep. 1047
If we were building Auckland from a blank canvas with the knowledge we have today there are lots of places where you wouldn't build, says Martin Brook, Associate Professor of Applied Geology at the University of Auckland. Speaking in the Of Interest podcast , Brook says this year's spate of extreme weather events means we are talking more about the dangers of floods, slips and landslides, but there's a lot of work to do to better prepare ourselves for future such events. "Generally if we were pl...
Jun 24, 2023•26 min•Ep. 1046
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news bond markets are coming around to believing the US Fed signals, reversing their view that their call for high rates was 'just talk'. But first, US jobless claims stayed up at 250,000 last week at about the level expected. There are 1.67 mln people still on these benefits...
Jun 22, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1045
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets seem to have decided China isn't doing anywhere near enough to reverse their economic challenges. But first, Fed boss Powell has been presenting the central bank's Semi Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress today and in testimony he said "Nearly all FOMC pa...
Jun 21, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1044
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news global demand worries kneecapped many commodity prices overnight. The NZD suffered from the trend. The overnight dairy auction came in better than expected, but expectations were pretty negative. Overall prices were unchanged in USD terms when a -2.4% drop was anticip...
Jun 20, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1043
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of some truly huge industrial orders being announced in Paris. But first we should note that the US is on a Federal holiday today and most financial markets are closed there. However there was some interesting data out overnight. Their home builder confidence index rose...
Jun 19, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1042
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the realities of the post-pandemic bounce are showing it isn't being sustained on a global basis. This week won't be as busy on the economic data front as last week. It will be mainly Fed-watching in the US, plus PMIs and some key housing sector data there. China will re...
Jun 18, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1041
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news hard data on the coming economic retreat is only marginally easier to find. Equities and commodities are up today. But US jobless claims rose by +249,000 last week, about the expected seasonal rise. There are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, the first actual rise s...
Jun 15, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1040
If you're looking for profit-led inflation you should probe consumer facing industries rather than look across the whole economy, says UBS chief economist Paul Donovan. Speaking in the Of Interest podcast , the London-based Donovan says profit-led inflation, whereby companies are able to expand profit margins and convince customers it's fair to do so, is the third wave of inflation experienced in developed economies since the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows a demand shock as developed country econ...
Jun 15, 2023•31 min•Ep. 1039
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets are choppy after the Fed decision. As widely expected, the US Fed did hold its policy rates unchanged at today's meeting. But it added the phrase "in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate ..." signaling the more hikes are p...
Jun 14, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1038
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation seems to be in retreat in all major economies. The closely-watched American CPI inflation result for May got the benefit of falling petrol prices. The headline level came in +4.0% ahead of year-ago levels, which was marginally better than the expected 4.1% a...
Jun 13, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1037
Following the spate of extreme, damaging and costly weather events in the North Island this year we shouldn't let a big disaster go to waste, Tower Insurance CEO Blair Turnbull argues. Speaking in the latest episode of the Of Interest podcast , Turnbull says the realisation from frequent and extreme weather such as the Auckland anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle is that we are seeing climate change, and we need to understand it better and adapt. "We're starting to rethink how to respond to...
Jun 13, 2023•36 min•Ep. 1036
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets are on tenterhooks for the Thursday US Fed rate decision. In the meantime, US consumer inflation expectations over the next year eased in May, down to 4.1% and the lowest since March 2021 more than two years ago. Expectations for inflation for longer t...
Jun 12, 2023•4 min•Ep. 1035
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news upbeat economic signals are harder to find. But first, let's take a look at what economic signals we can expect in the next few days. It will be a busy week in the US, with the Fed interest rate decision on Thursday (NZT) and no change is expected by financial market pri...
Jun 11, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1034
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global economic impulse seems to be weakening further. US jobless claims rose last week to +219,000. When seasonal factors are added, this rise was significant. Seasonally, there should have been a decrease. Perhaps we are now getting the American labour market react...
Jun 08, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1033
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central banks seem to have called time on their brief interest rate pause signals. Just like the RBA on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada did the unexpected and hiked their policy interest rate by +25 bps to 4.75%, saying their monetary policy was not sufficiently tight enou...
Jun 07, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1032
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the 'surprise' rise in the official Australian interest rate benchmark comes as the Chinese yuan weakens sharply past 4.1 to the USD. A weaker Chinese economy and higher regional interest rates will cause inevitable ripples in New Zealand. But first today, there was a...
Jun 06, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1031
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global service sector is expanding faster and keeping the long-awaited economic retreat at bay. First in the US, there were two PMIs out for their services sector. The widely-watched ISM one retreated from a modest expansion to a minor expansion in May. This wasn't ...
Jun 05, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1030
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets want to move on from the US debt-ceiling debate but there are details to deal with. In Washington DC, the House of Representative has approved the Biden-McCarthy debt deal compromise. It is unlikely to fail in a Senate vote soon. The Biden Budget is largely intac...
Jun 01, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1029
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that mixed US data that doesn't show their labour market retreating, along with weak Chinese data, has the greenback rising but bond yields falling. Commodities are out of favour. US mortgage applications fell last week to a three month low (and approaching only half t...
May 31, 2023•6 min•Ep. 1028
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are in the shadow period until the US House votes on the debt deal. The chatter accentuates the risks of failure, so markets are holding their breath. But they also assume it will get passed. Meanwhile, the data being released is all quite bland, and will be until ...
May 30, 2023•5 min•Ep. 1027
