Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news consumer hesitations are showing up the world's largest economies. But first, our week ahead will be dominated by Wednesday's RBNZ OCR rate review, one that is widely expected, by both analysts and financial markets, to deliver a -25 bps cut. That will flow though to flo...
Aug 17, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1627
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news tariff-costs seem to be having much more impact on US prices than on global trade. But first, US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 199,000 but that was slightly lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now just over 2 mln people on ...
Aug 14, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1626
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of a rare drop in bank lending in China from weak demand. But first up today, we need to report that "due to a technical issue", yesterday's GDT Pulse Auction was cancelled prior to its completion. Meanwhile in the US, and boosted by a very sharp surge in refinance act...
Aug 13, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1625
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation is staying high in the US but retreating in India and Australia. The US CPI inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Still it is worth noting that June's level caused Trump to fire the bearer of that news. But...
Aug 12, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1624
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay. However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in Jun...
Aug 11, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1623
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news geopolitics will suck up all the headlines this week, but we will focus on how the world's economies are faring. This coming week will have a focus on Australia, and the RBA's Tuesday cash rate target review. "Everyone" expects them to cut by -25 bps to 3.60% - the more ...
Aug 10, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1622
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with we are ending the week with Wall Street not finding much to like about future trade prospects, especially as policy shifts seem to be highly chaotic and involve personal retributions. US initial jobless claims rose last week to +195,000 when seasonal factors indicated it woul...
Aug 07, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1621
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news in search of short-term riches, the Cook Islands is establishing itself as a haven base for deep sea mining, it be used by both great powers. But first, American mortgage applications rose last week with a modest +3.1% gain from the prior week attributed to a small fal...
Aug 06, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1620
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction. ...
Aug 05, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1619
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere. First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, ...
Aug 04, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1618
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy. But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobl...
Aug 03, 2025•8 min•Ep. 1617
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extensi...
Jul 31, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1616
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news a no-change Fed has brought sharp market reactions, bolstered by an odd tariff twist. As expected, the US central bank left its key policy rates unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting. They see the data pointing to 'a moderation in ec...
Jul 30, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1615
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook . This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in ...
Jul 29, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1614
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high. And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals ...
Jul 28, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1613
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on. But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like ...
Jul 27, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1612
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style. In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914...
Jul 24, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1611
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates. But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose. Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% f...
Jul 23, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1610
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the v...
Jul 22, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1609
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China is having second thoughts about how some industries are operating with their super-competitive impulses. But first, a widely followed American leading index tracker weakened in June. The US Conference Board's LEI continued its fall which started in mid 2022 and ha...
Jul 21, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1608
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with US tariff news probably dominating this week as many countries get letters from Trump. That will likely include Australia and New Zealand. While the direct effect on us will probably be as expected, we will be more vulnerable to secondary impacts - although Canada, Japan, Chi...
Jul 20, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1607
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand. But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on...
Jul 17, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1606
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements. In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lo...
Jul 16, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1605
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame. But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2....
Jul 15, 2025•6 min•Ep. 1604
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there may be trade policy chaos, and it may get worse, but you wouldn't know it from today's data, especially June data from China. But first, India said its CPI inflation is falling, and quite quickly now, taken lower by falling food prices. Their CPI fell for the eigh...
Jul 14, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1603
Kia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news August 1 is the new deadline for tariff negotiations with the US. It’s an endlessly moving 'deadline' bourne out of frustration at being unable to make any meaningful deals. This week will feature a first peek at June inflation components with the selected price data due...
Jul 13, 2025•7 min•Ep. 1602
Kia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; ' greed is good ' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps tha...
Jul 10, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1601
Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news of more tariff threats, but markets are over that drama, shoving its impact to the background. If there is news on a US-EU deal, then that will likely change. First in the US, even though the benchmark 30 year home loan interest rate was little-changed, mortgage applic...
Jul 09, 2025•4 min•Ep. 1600
Kia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news US tariff threats are shifting from being aimed at trading 'partners' to a focus on commodities, today especially copper. Protection of favoured US business interests is the goal, cloaked in the labels of 'national security'. But first up today, the overnight dairy Pu...
Jul 08, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1599
Kia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news financial markets have turned cautious, unsure of what to make of the set of 'tariff letters'. In Washington, because they couldn't complete tariff deals in the "90 deals in 90 days" to July 9, they have moved the 'deadline' to August 1. The shambles extends. And the ca...
Jul 07, 2025•5 min•Ep. 1598
