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After my last lecture series with Sarah Paine ended, I still had so many questions . I knew we’d only scratched the surface of Sarah’s scholarship, so I immediately invited her back for another series: she graciously agreed, and we’ll be releasing the results online over the coming weeks and months! This first lecture is focused on the balance of power in East Asia at the turn of the 20th century. Specifically, how did Japan (population 47M) defeat China (400M) and Russia (130M) to become Asia's...
The Stephen Kotkin episode. Kotkin is arguably the world’s foremost expert on Joseph Stalin and has written a massive 2-volume biography on him (with a 3rd volume in the works). No other individual had more of a profound impact on the 20th century than Stalin. He held the power of life and death over every single person across 11 time zones, and he killed tens of millions of people, utterly consumed by an ideology aimed at building paradise on Earth. And, he was one half of the biggest and most ...
Dwarkesh Patel explains his skepticism about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) arriving in the very near future, citing key limitations of current large language models (LLMs), particularly their inability to learn continuously on the job like humans and challenges with reliable computer use agents. While acknowledging impressive current reasoning capabilities, he offers specific 50-50 predictions for capabilities like tax preparation (2028) and seamless on-the-job learning (2032), arguing that truly transformative AI is likely years away but holds immense long-term potential.
George Church is the godfather of modern synthetic biology and has been involved with basically every major biotech breakthrough in the last few decades. Professor Church thinks that these improvements (e.g., orders of magnitude decrease in sequencing & synthesis costs, precise gene editing tools like CRISPR, AlphaFold-type AIs, & the ability to conduct massively parallel multiplex experiments) have put us on the verge of some massive payoffs: de-aging, de-extinction, biobots that combin...
Arthur Kroeber, author of "China's Economy," explains how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance through state-backed subsidies, ruthless domestic competition, and strategic infrastructure investments like electrification. He contrasts China's approach with other economies like Japan and the US, arguing against a Cold War framing due to deep economic integration. Kroeber highlights the challenges posed by China's debt and supply-side focus, the critical need for open communication, and how both countries can manage their competitive relationship productively while avoiding extreme narratives.
Ken Rogoff, former chief economist at the IMF, discusses the state of global economies. He analyzes China's current crisis, its leadership changes under Xi Jinping, and its prospects compared to the US and Japan. Rogoff predicts a future inflation crisis for the US due to high debt and explores how financial crises cause long-lasting economic damage. The conversation also touches upon the role of the Federal Reserve, rising interest rates, the potential impact of AGI, and the future of the dollar's dominance.
Victor Shih joins the podcast to discuss China's complex political and economic landscape. The conversation covers the dynamics of the Politburo, Xi Jinping's leadership style and micromanagement, and the party's approach to advanced technology like AGI, including fears of it undermining authority. They also delve into China's massive local government debt crisis, financial repression, the drivers behind overbuilding, and potential solutions, alongside touching upon the probability of a Taiwan invasion and the uncertainty surrounding succession after Xi.
New episode with my good friends Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken . Sholto focuses on scaling RL and Trenton researches mechanistic interpretability, both at Anthropic. We talk through what’s changed in the last year of AI research; the new RL regime and how far it can scale; how to trace a model’s thoughts; and how countries, workers, and students should prepare for AGI. See you next year for v3. Here’s last year’s episode , btw. Enjoy! Watch on YouTube ; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify...
Based on my essay about AI firms. Huge thanks to Petr and his team for bringing this to life! Watch on YouTube . Thanks to Google for sponsoring. We used their Veo 2 model to make this entire video—it generated everything from the photorealistic humans to the claymation octopuses. If you’re a Gemini Advanced user, you can try Veo 2 now in the Gemini app. Just select Veo 2 in the dropdown, and type your video idea in the prompt bar. Get started today by going to gemini.google.com . To sponsor a f...
Mark Zuckerberg discusses Meta's plans for AGI, including Llama 4, benchmark gaming, intelligence explosion, and business models. He touches upon DeepSeek/China, export controls, and potential relationships with AI. The conversation also explores AI's role in productivity, creativity, and the future of work, along with the importance of open source and security in AI development.
Kyle Harper discusses the role of plagues, climate change, and slavery in the fall of Rome. He explores how environmental factors and disease outbreaks significantly impacted the Roman Empire's transformation. The conversation also covers the Roman economy's limitations, the lack of sustained technological innovation, and the potential dangers of future pandemics. Finally, Harper touches on the ethics of de-extinction and humanity's legacy on Earth's biodiversity.
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu discuss their views on AI timelines, the concept of an intelligence explosion, and the potential for explosive economic growth driven by AI. They explore the importance of complementary innovations, hardware scaling, and the broader economic context in achieving transformative AI advancements, while also addressing potential bottlenecks and regulatory challenges.
Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo discuss their AI 2027 scenario, forecasting AI progress month-by-month. They delve into topics such as the intelligence explosion, AI agents, misalignment risks, and the potential impact on society, touching on cultural evolution, economic transformations, and the balance of power between humans and AI. They also explore policy considerations and the importance of transparency in AI development.
Dwarkesh and friends discuss his new book on AI, career advice in the age of AGI, podcast growth strategies, and preparing for accelerated timelines. They explore the nuances of AI development, content creation, and how to best position oneself in a rapidly changing technological landscape. The episode also covers guest selection criteria, distribution tactics, and the importance of mentorship.
Joseph Henrich discusses cultural evolution, the importance of collective intelligence, and how human societies have developed unique cognitive abilities over time. He explores the factors behind Europe's Industrial Revolution, the role of institutions like the Catholic Church, and the implications of AI on the future of knowledge accumulation and problem-solving. Henrich emphasizes the interplay between genetics, culture, and environment in shaping human success and societal progress.
I’m so excited with how this visualization of Notes on China turned out. Petr , thank you for such beautiful watercolor artwork. More to come! Watch on YouTube . ---------- Timestamps (0:00:00) - Intro (0:00:32) - Scale (0:05:50) - Vibes (0:11:14) - Youngsters (0:14:27) - Tech & AI (0:15:47) - Hearts & Minds (0:17:07) - On Travel Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe...
Satya Nadella discusses Microsoft's approach to AI, focusing on economic growth, the importance of infrastructure, and the balance between innovation and real-world application. He also covers Microsoft's quantum computing breakthrough, gaming world models, and the legal and societal implications of AI. Nadella emphasizes the need for trust, alignment, and responsible deployment of AI technologies.
Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer discuss their 25 years at Google, from PageRank to Gemini, delving into the evolution of AI, hardware, and the future of computing. They explore topics like Moore's Law, TPUs, language models, the potential for an intelligence explosion, and the ethical considerations of advanced AI, with a focus on continual learning and modularity. They also imagine a future where AI is seamlessly integrated into every aspect of life, transforming how we work and interact with the world.
Third and final episode in the Paine trilogy! Chinese history is full of warlords constantly challenging the capital. How could Mao not only stay in power for decades, but not even face any insurgency? And how did Mao go from military genius to peacetime disaster - the patriotic hero who inflicted history’s worst human catastrophe on China? How can someone shrewd enough to win a civil war outnumbered 5 to 1 decide "let's have peasants make iron in their backyards" and "let's kill all the birds"?...
This is the second episode in the trilogy of a lectures by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College. In this second episode, Prof Paine dissects the ideas and economics behind Japanese imperialism before and during WWII. We get into the oil shortage which caused the war; the unique culture of honor and death; the surprisingly chaotic chain of command. This is followed by a Q&A with me. Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this event! Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify...
I’m thrilled to launch a new trilogy of double episodes: a lecture series by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College, each followed by a deep Q&A. In this first episode, Prof Paine talks about key decisions by Khrushchev, Mao, Nehru, Bhutto, & Lyndon Johnson that shaped the whole dynamic of South Asia today. This is followed by a Q&A. Come for the spy bases, shoestring nukes, and insight about how great power politics impacts every region. Huge thanks to Substack for hosting t...
I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff. We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode. Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thank...
Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift with is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford. We discuss: destroying the light cone with vacuum decay, holographic principle, mining black holes, & what it would take to train LLMs that can make Einstein level conceptual breakthroughs. Stupefying, entertaining, & terrifying. Enjoy! Watch on YouTube , read the transcript , listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or your favorite platform. Sponsor...
Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog , you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive. In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed. After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go ...
A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade. Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis , the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs Asianometry , the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history. * What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled * $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Foll...
Unless you understand the history of oil, you cannot understand the rise of America, WW1, WW2, secular stagnation, the Middle East, Ukraine, how Xi and Putin think, and basically anything else that's happened since 1860. It was a great honor to interview Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Prize - the best history of oil ever written (which makes it the best history of the 20th century ever written). Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast...
I had no idea how wild human history was before chatting with the geneticist of ancient DNA David Reich . Human history has been again and again a story of one group figuring ‘something’ out, and then basically wiping everyone else out. From the tribe of 1k-10k modern humans who killed off all the other human species 70,000 years ago; to the Yamnaya horse nomads 5,000 years ago who killed off 90+% of (then) Europeans and also destroyed the Indus Valley. So much of what we thought we knew about h...
Chatted with Joe Carlsmith about whether we can trust power/techno-capital, how to not end up like Stalin in our urge to control the future, gentleness towards the artificial Other, and much more. Check out Joe's sequence on Otherness and Control in the Age of AGI here . Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Sponsors: - Bland.ai is an AI agent that automates phone...
I talked with Patrick McKenzie (known online as patio11) about how a small team he ran over a Discord server got vaccines into Americans' arms: A story of broken incentives, outrageous incompetence, and how a few individuals with high agency saved 1000s of lives. Enjoy! Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Sponsor This episode is brought to you by Stripe , financ...
I chatted with Tony Blair about: - What he learned from Lee Kuan Yew - Intelligence agencies track record on Iraq & Ukraine - What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him - How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing - What will AI’s July 1914 moment look like from inside the Cabinet? Enjoy! Watch the video on YouTube . Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Sponsors - Prelude Security is the world’s leading cyb...
