Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Jul 03, 2025•14 min
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Summary
Dwarkesh Patel explains his skepticism about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) arriving in the very near future, citing key limitations of current large language models (LLMs), particularly their inability to learn continuously on the job like humans and challenges with reliable computer use agents. While acknowledging impressive current reasoning capabilities, he offers specific 50-50 predictions for capabilities like tax preparation (2028) and seamless on-the-job learning (2032), arguing that truly transformative AI is likely years away but holds immense long-term potential.Episode description
I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years.
Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here.
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