As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were...
Aug 29, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 110
Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.
Aug 21, 2024•13 min•Season 1Ep. 104
The National Federation of Independent Businesses released today their Small Business Optimism report. In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI). Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, July’s index at 93.7 is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.0. Read in this issue our view of the Small Business Optimism ...
Aug 14, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 108
Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client’s portfolios as fast as they could. What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede. A jittery herd and then a sudden noise. Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legitimate or just nervous nellies.
Aug 07, 2024•23 min
A summer market correction is well under way after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced as three steps forward one step back. A consistent factor with investors and the stock market are the down cycles that are necessary to set up the next positive trend. Listen in this issue our analysis of the stock market and economy and predictions of when and how the stock mar...
Jul 31, 2024•13 min•Season 1Ep. 106
In today's market, interest rate trends, the recent S&P500 pullback, and presidential campaigns are key topics, influencing inflation, market volatility, and political dynamics
Jul 24, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 105
The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter are the changes in the company’s top line revenue (gross sales) and bottom line EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, amortization). The challenge for companies is increasing top revenue efficiently so their net income increases with rising sales. Read in this Update our analysis of a recent study by the Bu...
Jul 17, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 104
Since the stock market bottom on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly. During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by large cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%. The mid-cap S&P 400 index and small Cap S&P 600 trailed, rising 29.42% and 18.22% respectively. Is this a time to sell or buy more? Listen in this issue our analysis of identifying buying opportunities and when we believe it is time to sell.
Jul 10, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 103
We added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year. Since then, the stock price has soared. This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish forecasts the company’s chip and GPU (graphic processor units) will increase in demand. The stock is up 154.9% YTD through today. Listen in this Weekly Update our view on the future of NVDA and the AI industry.
Jun 26, 2024•11 min
The US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. Consumers are changing their spending in what economists refer to as a “soft landing” from former periods of stronger retails sales. Quick reversals from strong retail sales to no sales blindsides investors that typically results in greater stock market volatility as investors knee jerk reaction is to SELL! I...
Jun 20, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 101
In this podcast we identify that consumers are changing how they spend their money. It appears people are buying less fun stuff like vacations and home improvements and focusing more on boring stuff like food and clothes. Do consumers know something analysts don’t and are starting to adjust their budgets in preparation for a slowing economy? Listen in this Weekly Brief our observations of consumer spending and the changes we are making in our model portfolios.
Jun 12, 2024•14 min
The most recent economic tsunami was the 2020 pandemic that significantly disrupted all business and specifically manufacturing. Manufacturers were initially required to shut down operations and send their employees home. The obvious supply chain dysfunction that followed disrupted all businesses depending on manufactured products. Read in this Weekly Brief our observations of this week’s US and Global Manufacturing reports on production and output and the potential impact on businesses in 2024....
Jun 04, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 99
Last week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. For the May report, the mid-month results indicate a preliminary consumer sentiment index of 67.4 that was revised up to 69.1 for the final May reading. May is below the April’s final reading of 77.2. Listen in this issue our analysis of this report and the potential insight to the future of the economy and stock market....
May 29, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 98
The Federal Reserve raised the discount interest rate 11 times since March 2022. The last rate increase was in July 2023 as the CPI trended down from its peak and currently the CPI annualized rate for April was reported last week at 3.4% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. How will investors respond with their investment activity as we approach this year’s controversial Presidential election? Listen in this Weekly Brief our views on the interest rate market, the election, and the potential for th...
May 22, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 97
Today the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus. Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index. The optimism index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for the past 28 consecutive months. Read in this W...
May 15, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 96
Why do some investors build wealth consistently over time while many have little to show in growth after years of investing? In this Weekly Brief, we dive into the various practices and policies of investment advisors and why the guidance of some will result in years of underperformance of their client accounts.
May 08, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 95
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy. In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors.
May 01, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 94
The US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy.
Apr 24, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 93
Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working = people spending = economic activity In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.
Apr 17, 2024•21 min•Season 1Ep. 92
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.
Apr 10, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 91
One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indica...
Apr 03, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 90
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.
Mar 20, 2024•14 min•Season 1Ep. 89
Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs, the small business sector seems to be missing the party all together. For several years we have been writing about the lagging S&P 600 Small Cap Index to its peers of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and S&P 400 Mid Cap Indices. Today we review the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) release yesterday that indicated the 26th consecutive month the small business optimism index is below its...
Mar 13, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 88
A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and “High Cost of Living/Inflation”. In this Weekly Brief we review events of the 1960’s that led to historic hyperinflation of the 1970’s and what we can learn from this era. Most importantly, what were the risks and opportunities during the wild rides of these decades.
Mar 07, 2024•24 min•Season 1Ep. 87
Today the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February 2024. We need to monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us potential insight to the future of consumer spending which represents 66% of the nation’s financial activity as referenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means and our view of the stock market.
Feb 28, 2024•17 min•Season 1Ep. 86
This week's podcast dives into the disconnect between media-driven recession fears and the actual economic growth seen despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Contrary to dire predictions, the economy expanded, with significant stock market rallies and low unemployment rates defying expectations. We'll discuss the repercussions of basing investment strategies on speculative media narratives and highlight the stability and growth in consumer-focused economic indicators. The episode concludes wi...
Feb 21, 2024•17 min•Season 1Ep. 85
This year there are more people turning 65-year-old in America than in any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78 and they are turning the age of 65 at a rate of 11,300 per day. Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means for the American society and economy?
Feb 15, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 84
In last week's episode, we dove deep into the seismic news that shook Wall Street to its core – the latest January US Bureau of Labor Statistics job report. With analysts initially predicting a modest increase of 180,000 new jobs, the actual figures left us astounded as the economy surged with an additional 353,000 positions. This significant uptick isn't just a number; it's a beacon of bustling activity, signaling more paychecks, bolstered households, and invigorated consumer spending. Join us ...
Feb 07, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 83
Explore the 'Santa Claus Predictor' in our latest podcast episode. Learn how the S&P 500's performance during key December and January dates can signal its yearly direction. With mixed signals for 2024, we also delve into the robust end-of-year market rally in 2023 and discuss the promising economic outlook for the year ahead. Tune in for a concise and insightful analysis of market trends and predictions!
Jan 31, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 82
The American consumer sentiment, heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, has been recovering since hitting a low in July 2022, reaching a two-year high in January. Despite ongoing concerns like international conflicts and inflation, household financial conditions are strong, with low unemployment and favorable mortgage rates. This improvement in sentiment is critical as consumer spending drives 66% of the US GDP, and while holiday sales were r...
Jan 24, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 81
