In 2023, the stock market, led by major tech companies, saw significant gains with the S&P 500 up by 26%, while the fixed income market experienced unexpected fluctuations in interest rates. Looking ahead to 2024, the stock market is considered more expensive, with expectations of continued growth and margin expansion, especially in tech sectors influenced by AI, while the fixed income market faces challenges with debt rollovers and potential for strong yields in high-rated areas. The U.S. e...
Jan 17, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 80
Our expectations of a stock market yearend rally were modest due to waning retail sales and consumer confidence reported in October. As it turned out, the yearend rally exceeded our and most expectations as institutional investors added stocks to their portfolios that rallied the S&P 500 by 17% and NASDAQ by 23% since the October 27 bottom. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the year and potential new buying opportunities in 2024.
Jan 10, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 79
Yesterday was Christmas and already it seems like it was yesterday. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all day activities with kids and adults that concluded with an amazing Christmas dinner with my wife as head chef. Read more about our day in this Weekly Brief. We are hopeful that you had a wonderful Christmas day with friends and family. At Up Capital Management are thankful for the opportunity to serve you with this W...
Dec 27, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 78
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the slow continual decline in job openings that remains at historic high levels. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at multi-decade low levels. How can businesses have record job openings while those collecting unemployment are at record low levels? Where are the workers and how are they paying their bills? Finally, what does this mean for the US economy and stock markets? In this Weekly Brief we unpack these reports and explain where people are working...
Dec 06, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 77
With Thanksgiving quickly approaching (along with friends and families), we take a look at how inflation is impacting the country and especially the cost of Thanksgiving dinner. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of several economic indicators to determine if the economy is slowing or growing as we enter the last four weeks of the year. Let us know how we can assist you with your financial planning and investing goals.
Nov 22, 2023•12 min•Season 1Ep. 76
Explore the market's triumphant week with our latest financial briefing. Discover how small and mid-cap indices like the SP600 and SP400 outshone their larger counterparts, signaling a strategic shift as investors hunt for value in underperformers. Unpack the surprising three-year lag of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and its historical cycle of dominance and downturns. Dive into the charts illustrating NASDAQ's impressive rallies over the past five and ten years. We dissect what this rotation in market ...
Nov 08, 2023•14 min•Season 1Ep. 75
The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks are rarely held as prices fluctuate above and below the actual value. The key to building wealth is achieving sustainable and consistent yearly gains of your accounts. In this Weekly Brief, we review the wild ride of the past couple years, what we can learn from it, and most importantly, what longer trend has been in place....
Nov 01, 2023•14 min•Season 1Ep. 74
Is good news really bad news for investors? The media would like you to think so. Today, the US Census Bureau released their report indicating that consumer spending increased month over month higher than projected. The media interprets this as bad news as it raises the risk the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates. Read in this Weekly Brief how we interpret this data and whether good news is really bad news.
Oct 18, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 73
The small and mid-cap indices continue to trail their large cap and NASDAQ peers. Is it time to consider investing in these trailing sectors or wait for more confirmation of a positive trend? Speaking of positive trend, the SP 500 has bounced off of a low on October 2 and has rallied above its 20, 50, and 200 Day Moving Averages. Is this the uptrend we have been waiting for? Read in this Weekly Brief our views of the current market and this recent reversal.
Oct 10, 2023•19 min•Season 1Ep. 72
In this Weekly Brief we review many of the scams our clients have experienced in hopes of preventing you from getting scammed. Scammers are getting extremely sophisticated as they can duplicate major banking emails and even show up on your caller ID when they call. AI is introducing all new ways to duplicate voices and write emails. Be aware anytime you get a call from a financial institution and especially if they want you to make changes or transfer funds from your account.
Oct 04, 2023•26 min•Season 1Ep. 71
The S&P 500 has declined 8% since it peaked on July 31 the year high and now at its 200 Day Moving Average. Is this a time to sell or buy and what will the institutional investors that represent the majority of stock market trading, be doing? Read in this Weekly Brief our views and what strategies one must consider to consistently build wealth.
Sep 27, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 70
Consumer sentiment has declined for the third consecutive month. Is this a precursor to another mild holiday season? In this Weekly Brief we review the recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report along with other reports to determine the trend of the economy and stock market.
Sep 20, 2023•15 min•Season 1Ep. 69
Anton shares in this Weekly Brief his experience of a near death plane crash one year ago and the emotional recovery process since the crash. Not everyone will be involved in a near death accident, but recovering from personal challenges are similar with perseverance to work through the situation and emotions that come with the experience.
Sep 13, 2023•20 min•Season 1Ep. 68
Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%. Consumer spending represents 66% of the US GDP and the future of the economy is dependent on consumers continuing to spend even with higher interest rates. Listen in this Weekly Brief our full analysis of consumer spending and other economic indicators.
Sep 06, 2023•22 min•Season 1Ep. 67
Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver’s seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market? Call us if you are not as we welcome the opportunity to assist you and your family.
Aug 30, 2023•8 min•Season 1Ep. 66
Institutional investors’ biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign. Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed’s will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up. Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will be encouraged by reports that employers are slowing their hiring and wage increases. Listen in this Brief...
Aug 23, 2023•20 min•Season 1Ep. 65
The stock market has taken a pause since peaking its year high on July 31. Is this the beginning of a more protracted correction or a new buying opportunity? In this Brief we unpack what’s we believe investors are doing and a strategy for your portfolio.
Aug 16, 2023•13 min•Season 1Ep. 64
Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) release their report on the sentiment of small business owners. Although the index is still well below prior year highs, the trend has been positive for the last several months and recovering from lows reached earlier this year. Read in this issue our observation of this report and what it may indicate for the stock market.
Aug 09, 2023•20 min•Season 1Ep. 63
Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects of consumer spending based on their financial assessment of households. Financially stable consumers spend more and especially when consumers feel “wealthy” based on their view of the economy, equity in their home, and investment account values. We can learn a lot ab...
Aug 02, 2023•17 min•Season 1Ep. 62
President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 on December 29, 2022 that has improved in many ways the ability to save for retirement. However, it is important to monitor tax laws as it concerns your retirement account. The 401(k) retirement plan is not disappearing yet, but the potential of double taxation or worse on retirement distributions can impact your overall returns. Read in this Weekly Brief as we unpack the new laws as it concerns 401(k) and possible changes to your retirement contributions be...
Jul 19, 2023•22 min•Season 1Ep. 61
The Federal Reserve has recently announced its 10th rate hike in an effort to curb inflation, leading analysts to predict a potential recession in 2023. It's important to remember that recessions are a normal part of economic fluctuations, with the US having experienced 13 since World War II. Attempting to time recessions or markets is impossible, and making significant portfolio moves can be challenging even for professional investors. Jerome Powell's recent comments may suggest a pause in futu...
May 04, 2023•22 min•Season 1Ep. 60
In 2014 my wife gave me a gift certificate for an introductory flight. That 45-minute flight sparked a lifelong interest in flying that resulted in obtaining my pilot’s license and aviation experiences I had never thought possible. In this personal reflection on pursuing my aviation goals, are many life lessons that will hopefully encourage you to take the first steps in pursuit of your lifelong big audacious goals.
Apr 27, 2023•20 min•Season 1Ep. 59
Are the fears and worries in 2022 of a recession in 2023 coming to fruition? In this Weekly Brief we review the challenges the Federal Reserve faced in 2020 and 2021 and why they needed to raise rates as rapidly as possible in 2022. The concern among many analysts and commentators were the rate increases would stifle economic growth and spiral the economy into a recession. Read in this Week our observations of recent economic reports that don’t seem to be indication such dire outcomes....
Apr 19, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 58
Yesterday’s National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey on small businesses indicated many key aspects about the health of small businesses. As expected, hiring qualified employees and supply chain disruptions are still a factor for businesses. However, there are several positive indicators about small businesses that represent 99.9% of all businesses in America and have created 66% of all new jobs since 1996. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the report and what it may m...
Apr 12, 2023•18 min•Season 1Ep. 57
Recent economic reports on labor and manufacturing are indicating a slowing but growing economy. In this Weekly Brief we review several reports that together paint a picture of a soft landing of a sustainable and growing economy albeit at a slower pace. The scenario that Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, had hoped would be the case vs the doom and gloom crash landing many analysts predicted last year.
Apr 05, 2023•15 min•Season 1Ep. 56
Inventories are dropping for manufacturing and trade companies while rising for retail businesses. A mixed bag of information that may indicate that businesses are still growing while consumers are pinching pockets on their spending. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of these reports and the status of the US stock market.
Mar 30, 2023•9 min•Ep. 55
Consumer sentiment drops, but will it affect spending? Find out why tracking spending habits is a better predictor of the economy than consumer sentiment. Plus, a look at how stimulus dollars and wage increases have impacted household income in 2020 and 2021.
Mar 22, 2023•19 min•Season 1Ep. 54
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank may not be a systemic issue prevalent in the banking sector. However, there are challenges in the credit and lending industry due to the rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 and into 2023. Read in this article an in-depth analysis of the missteps of Silicon Valley Bank that lead to its ultimate demise and what we can learn from this situation.
Mar 15, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 53
Yesterday’s Factory Orders indicated that consumer spending remains in positive up trend and a good start of the year. The US economy remains in a positive trend and more favorable in contrast to Germany’s Factory Report also released yesterday.
Mar 08, 2023•17 min•Season 1Ep. 52
The doomsayers predicting a recession in late 2022 or in 2023 so far are thankfully incorrect. The US GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with positive overall gain. Read in this Weekly Brief more evidence we referenced why recession fears may have been overstated and what we see as a likely forecast for 2023.
Mar 01, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 51
