The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their monthly housing sales report this morning. The bad news is the report indicated a 12th consecutive monthly decline in home sales with the good news the decline may be slowing. In fact, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying that he forecast the potential bottoming of home sales with the potential to see increase activity going into the spring.
Analysts have been forecasting a hard landing for the economy in 2023 due to many concerns that include the aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. As it turned out, the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economy has proven to be more accurate than analyst’s projections. In this Brief we review the possibilities of either a soft landing or no landing at all.
Spring and summer always follow winter. No matter how cold or deep the snow, spring is only a few months away. If history is a guide to the future of the US economy, this period of world pandemic, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation, and war, will also fade away and lead into the next US bull market and economic growth trend. Read in this Weekly Brief or listen to our podcast as we review key similar challenging times in US history and how the economy not only survived but thrived in subseq...
The advantage of being at the bottom of market cycles is the potential for significant gains during the recovery can be terrific. In this issue we outline several stocks bouncing back big time – 30% to 40% - so far this year. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend or a “dead cat bounce” when stocks experience a short term rally only to reverse to new lows?
The Federal Reserve started a rate hike policy on March 17, 2022, that continued throughout the year, targeting to lower inflation based on several indicators. Investors are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a recession. Retail sales have declined in the past two months, which suggests that the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP will be lower than previously thought, with personal consumption expenditures less supportive of growth. Additionally, the housing ...
Another year over and a new year starting. If there is any time to get ahead of your schedule and plan and take proactive steps towards your goals, it is now. In this Brief, we discuss some real-life lessons learned on the SEC Football field that turned the tables on Alabama’s Nick Saban.
Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, wants to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. This is important to investors and affects industries like housing and energy. The Fed slowed its rate hike plan, recognizing the impact on inflation. A professor suggests that inflation may already be at the target rate.
With a new year is new hope for an improving stock market. In this Weekly Brief we review many of the anomalies that impacted almost all sectors of the economy that created unusual price swings. Most investors forget that the pandemic and subsequent government restrictions on society occurred during a strong economy that appears to still be in tack three years later. Most certainly, the US economy is recovering faster than most other countries. We look at how prices fluctuated during 2020 and 20...
DFTF or “Don’t Fight the Feds” has been the theme for investors this year. The steady decline of the stock market has been matched by the aggressive rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve. However, investors are slowly renewing their hope that on December 14 Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, will give the message investors have been waiting all year for. In this Weekly Brief we decipher the impact the Federal Reserve is having on the stock market and more importantly what other factors a...
Mixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. A...
In this week's episode, Anton shares some stories in his recent months and reasons he is thankful - also, why you might be too!
Over the past 30 years of managing investor portfolios, the theater of financial markets has produced some of the most interesting and sometimes comical characters of Wall Street. Most importantly is how we can learn from them and identify who we should listen to for advice and those simply to watch and listen. In this Weekly Brief, we feature the fun of this theater from the opening act early each morning and the willing participants of Wall Streeters, all of us investors. Its great entertainme...
The US continues to improve in nearly every industry sector and none better than the record 23 consecutive monthly gain in factory and manufacturing production. The Federal Reserve is causing a re-balance of economy with many long term benefits to investors. Listen in this Weekly Brief our positive analysis and forecast of the stock market and economy.
The next 60 days represent the “holiday season” and for us some of the most memorable times of the year. Read in this Brief the joys of this time of the year and what you can look forward to.
Life is like one long hike. Planning, preparation, and proper supplies will assure a successful hike as it will also in life. Listen to this issue, our experiences hiking in Maui, and the life lessons we learned along the way.
The holiday season is near and in this Weekly Brief we review projections for holiday sales this season. The stock market has started the fourth quarter with a bang and we discuss what will be needed to continue this rally.
History has many experiences of the Dow Jones Industrial Average selling off and entering new bear markets (down > 20%). However, the Dow Jones has always recovered from a selloff and in many situations rallied to new highs within 24 months. In 2020, the Dow Jones plummeted 37% in 40 days but was back to its previous high by November 13 or in 275 days. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of past stock market corrections and subsequent rallies that demonstrate the resilience of the US econo...
Is the housing market on track for another bust of declining home prices and high vacancies? Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of this week’s National Association of Housing Builders and our view of the future of the residential housing market.
This week I attended the Advisor Circle Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, CA. In this Brief I review comments from key speakers on the economy and stock market. Hint, they are not panicking.
The saying is the stock market rises like a staircase and drops like an elevator. Listen in this Weekly Brief why we remain optimistic and propose patience over panic as your investment strategy.
Jerome Powell gave his speech last week and Wall Street is having a fit. Federal Reserve is not giving them what they want! Can the Federal Reserve successfully tame the inflation challenges of the future of our economy? Listen in this Brief our view of Jerome Powell’s speech and most importantly his missed insights that evidence points to their policy is working.
Is housing about to experience another crash like 2008? Listen in this Brief our analysis of last week’s existing and new housing sales reports and projections for the residential market.
The stock market is in recovery, but the bond market is not. Why are stocks going up and bonds declining in value? Listen in this Weekly Brief as we unpack this divergence and reveal the long term risk with bonds.
There are more jobs available in the US than in recent history. Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over 528,000 new jobs were filled the previous year month and nearly 100% higher than expectations. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and the prospects for the stock market and holiday sales in the second half of this year.
More bad economic news is music to the ears of the Federal Reserve. Listen in this Weekly Brief why this is good news not only for the Federal Reserve but investors as well.
Again the market proves that it looks to where the economy is going and not where its been. Last month there was record setting bad economic data while the SP500 had its best month of the year. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this separation and what it might mean for your investments.
When is bad news good? (e.g. your distant uncle died and you have an inheritance) The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index dropped in July to the lowest level since 2020. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this report and why it is good news for investors going into 2023.
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it’s Consumer Price Index report that at high level appears to be on a torrid rise not seen since November 1981. But is there more to this report and is it possible a few bad apples have outsized influence on the index? Listen in this Brief as we break down this report and determine if there is a silver lining to be discovered
Now that fixed mortgage rates have ballooned 100% these past several months will housing continue to boom or bust? More importantly, what will be the impact on the future of the stock market? Listen in this Weekly Brief our analyst of housing and stock market as the Federal Reserve battles rising inflation.
