Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of June had increased to 322.56 points or 0.3%. On an annual basis, the annual inflation rate has increased to 2.7% which is the highest annualized rate since February’s low reading of 2.4% annualized rate. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our analysis of this report and the status of the US economy and stock market.
Jul 15, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 141
The rapid rise of interest rates causes significant changes in lending activity and especially in the housing mortgage market. According to CNBC , the sale of previously owned homes in April declined 0.5% from March to an annualized rate of 4 million units. This is the slowest April pace since 2009. Read in this issue our view of the future of interest rates and inflation and the possible impact on the stock market....
Jun 17, 2025•19 min•Season 1Ep. 140
In the complex and extensive ecosystem of the US economy, the fundamental core of its sustainability and continued growth all depends on the consumer. That’s you and me and how we spend and save our money. As investors we monitor consumer spending of both staples as the largest portion of household budgets and the more profitable discretionary spending such as vacations, hospitality, dining, jewelry, and luxury items. Discretionary budgets can fluctuate dramatically that are influenced by variou...
Jun 04, 2025•24 min•Season 1Ep. 139
For many of our retired clients, they had successful careers and are now enjoying their retirement years. Stock market volatility is difficult to navigate for investors and even more challenging for those already retired. The difference between those retired from their careers is the ability or time to make up account losses. It is more difficult to ride out stock market volatility without the confidence of additional income to make up the losses. In this UPdate, we discuss one key investment st...
May 28, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 138
The first four months of 2024 have been a wild ride for Wall Street. Investors don’t respond well to change, and their typical response is to sell and ask questions later. In this issue we analyze the past two months market volatility and review what investors can learn about institutional investors in their response to potentially disruptive economic events.
May 21, 2025•18 min•Season 1Ep. 137
This year investors have been challenged to navigate market volatility that so far has been based more on speculation than facts on the economy. Since President Trump’s inaugurated, he has rolled out more policies these past 113 days than any president I can remember. Listen in this UPdate the status of market conditions and how investors can benefit from studying President Trump’s previous term.
May 14, 2025•14 min•Season 1Ep. 136
Since the inauguration of President Trump, investors have been very nervous about his administration’s aggressive policy changes and process. He and his administration seem to be keeping Wall Street and Main Street on a “need to know” basis that is hard for business owners to plan their future. How investors are responding to the uncertainty and the prospects for the US stock market.
May 06, 2025•20 min•Season 1Ep. 135
Institutional investors have once again become headline driven. Institutional traders seem to base their daily trading strategy on Trump tweets panicking on this announcement or another. Most interesting is their little regard to actual economic data. They obviously haven’t learned much from President Trump’s first term and his modus operandi. Listen in this UPdate on assessment of the economy and our suggestions on navigating through this market volatility.
Apr 30, 2025•21 min•Season 1Ep. 134
The stock market is currently selling off over concerns of pending tariffs, similar to the investor fears that led to the 2022 selloff. In 2022, investors sold stocks in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign to combat soaring inflation. Despite corporate profits continuing to rise throughout 2022, stock prices declined until the market began a strong rally in early 2023. The current market correction in 2025 mirrors 2022, but key differences remain—mainly the uncertainty surro...
Apr 02, 2025•21 min•Season 1Ep. 133
George Foreman affectionately known as “Big George” died this week on March 21 at the young age of 76. He has many accolades to be remembered by that include his boxing career, business successes, father, minister, and philanthropic causes. After winning Gold at the 1968 Summer Olympics, he entered professional boxing and over the next 20 years he fought 76 professional fights that he ended 68 with a KO. The US is another rising star in its early years compared to countries around the world that...
Mar 26, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 132
For the past week, major media outlets have opined on the stock market volatility speculating whether this is the beginning of a significant stock market selloff and if the US economy is entering a deep recession cycle like 2008 or 1929. However, the media is overstating the damage to investor accounts. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down -5.26% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the darling of the media because of the point fluctuation, is down YTD -2.61%. Listen in this UPdate our ...
Mar 12, 2025•15 min•Season 1Ep. 131
Since December 6, 2024, the US stock market has been trading in a flat range up to February 19. However, the flat trading range weakened on January 27 when DeepSeek announced it had developed AI learning database using outdated Nvidia GPU for less than $6M. Investors panicked selling top AI company stocks with some share prices plummeting 15% - 20% that day. Even though the selloff was short lived, and nearly all the losses of that day were recovered within three weeks, investor confidence in th...
Mar 05, 2025•15 min•Season 1Ep. 130
The University of Michigan released on Friday their Surveys of Consumers reports. The February report indicated that consumers’ concerns are building after January’s index decline that has continued into February. From the February surveys, consumers cited mounting worry about rising inflation due to tariffs. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 13.5% to 64.7 in February from December’s 74.0 index level. Listen in this UPdate our analysis of these reports and our stock market projections for 20...
Feb 26, 2025•18 min•Season 1Ep. 129
Investors entered 2025 with cautious optimism as stocks continued their strong rally, led by tech and AI. Despite a brief selloff in January, momentum remains positive, and new buying opportunities are emerging. Market corrections may be more volatile, but economic growth is broadening beyond tech. Stay informed on trends and opportunities in this week’s update.
Feb 19, 2025•17 min•Season 1Ep. 128
The US economy continues to improve in many areas that would indicate continued positive momentum and continued growth. In this UPdate we will focus on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Turnover (JOLTS) report and Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (ISM). Both reports provide insight on how employers are doing that will ultimately result in how the stock market performs in 2025. Listen in this UPdate our analysis and projections for 2025....
Feb 04, 2025•17 min•Season 1Ep. 127
After two consecutive years of robust US stock market gains, investors are nervous about stock values and meeting high growth expectations, especially in the tech sector. For reference, the major indices’ two-year run has been tremendous with the S&P 500 gaining 53.19% and NASDAQ gaining a whopping 84.50%. Listen in this UPdate our view of yesterday's wild market swing and today’s rebound along with our forecast for 2025.
Jan 29, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 126
We have mentioned in past UPdates the importance of monitoring the financial and sentiment of US consumers. The primary reason is American spending represents a whopping 67.9% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) otherwise known as gross revenue from all transactions (illustrated below by JP Morgan). Imbedded in the matrix of consumer spending is the freedoms Americans have that has always been the foundation of the world dominate US economy. Read in this UPdate our analysis of core of the ...
Jan 22, 2025•13 min•Season 1Ep. 125
It may be just physiological, but I really enjoy January. Granted it’s just another 30-day period like any other month. But January is motivating to me because it’s the start of a new year to achieve new goals and experience new adventures. Read in this issue my personal hacks on how I venture into the new year with purpose and planning. More importantly, what you can learn from these hacks that may help you make 2025 your best year yet!
Jan 08, 2025•16 min•Season 1Ep. 123
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) index has been well below its 50-year average of 98 as respondents report challenges with labor, costs, inflation, and government policies. The index has not been this low for as long as it has since the Great Recession. However, in November the index jumped 8 points to 101.7 as business owners responded with robust optimism regarding the new administration. Read in this UPdate our view of the sudden change in small business owners optimis...
Dec 18, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 122
My daughter loves to shop. In fact, her two love languages are shopping and someone paying for it. Apparently at least the shopping part is also a lot of people’s love language. Adobe Analytics reported that between November 1 to 24 that US consumers spent a whopping $77.4 billion online, that is an increase of 9.6% over same time last year. In their report, Adobe Analytics reported that 21 of these 24 shopping days had over $3 billion in sales vs 16 days last year. Based on this early indicatio...
Dec 11, 2024•12 min•Season 1Ep. 121
Late Friday afternoon on November 29, 2024, Anton and 61 others traveled from San Antonio to Reynosa, Mexico to volunteer for Strategic Alliance to build three houses for three related families all living in small shacks. Read in this issue his experience with pictures of his trip and the houses they built.
Dec 04, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 120
The housing market is facing challenges with plummeting sales and high mortgage rates, but rising new home construction and potential rate declines in 2025 could improve affordability. Homeownership remains a powerful wealth-building tool, offering significantly higher net worth compared to renting. If you're considering entering the market or investing, now is the time to plan strategically—reach out to us for guidance.
Nov 19, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 119
Looking back at Trump’s first term offers insights into potential market impacts of his second. In 2016, markets rallied after his election, while 2024 has seen sustained growth and investor confidence regardless of the outcome. Key sectors—small caps, consumer discretionary, finance, and energy—are showing strong performance, with tech once again poised for growth.
Nov 13, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 118
I don’t know about you, but it seems costs for everything is getting crazy. My wife went to the grocery store and items that were $9 last week are $14 this week. You can’t tell me grocery store or supplier cost have jumped 56% in one week?!? Are prices really going up faster now than in the past? In this issue we analyze the changes in inflation and wages and compare the recent changes to historic averages.
Nov 06, 2024•17 min•Season 1Ep. 117
September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased. The 0.4% is substantially higher than August’s 0.1% monthly increase. Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years. Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects for the future of the economy and stock market.
Oct 23, 2024•19 min•Season 1Ep. 116
Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year. Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle’s impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport. It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-dollar warbird planes on display, three ship formation flight of North American T-6 Texans, and riveting...
Oct 16, 2024•10 min•Season 1Ep. 115
Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle. This seems contradictory and begs the questions: Ø Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country? Ø Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment rate remains at lowest level since 1954? Ø What is prompting investors to drive up the stock market to all-ti...
Oct 01, 2024•24 min•Season 1Ep. 114
The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025.
Sep 25, 2024•16 min•Season 1Ep. 113
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America.
Sep 11, 2024•18 min•Season 1Ep. 112
After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week’s Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reache...
Sep 04, 2024•15 min•Season 1Ep. 111
