Exploring what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like. - podcast episode cover

Exploring what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like.

Nov 07, 202414 min
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In just over 70 days, Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States will become the 47th, and he'll begin implementing his vision of an all powerful chief executive.

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Hey, a quick word before the show. The 2024 presidential election is over. Maybe you're taking a break from election stuff for a while. Maybe you cannot stop scrolling. Either way, don't stress about where to go for reliable information in the next few months and beyond. Across the NPR network, we will be working to examine the biggest stories and to fact check so you can keep a group on what's happening. If that sounds valuable to you, please help make

it possible. Go to donate.npr.org to get started. If you're already a supporter, let me take this moment to say thank you. And if you're not, the link again is donate.npr.org. Thank you. And now to the show. Well, I want to thank you all very much. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald Trump took the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, thanked his supporters and walked through some of what he plans to do when he gets back to the White House.

America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. We have taken back control of the Senate while that's good. That mandate he referred to is part of what he'll lean on as he implements his vision for America. I will govern by a simple motto. Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promise over his nearly two year campaign. Trump made a lot of promises. One of them an immigration crackdown. We want to have borders. We want to have security. We want to have

things be good, safe. We want for a second Trump administration being safe is defined by mass deportations and closing the border. We have the greatest people also. Maybe that's the most important thing. This has already identified tech billionaire Elon Musk for a high profile role in government. Another name at the top of the list, the controversial Robert of Kennedy, Jr. He's going to help make America healthy again.

And now he's a great guy and he really means that he wants to do some things and we're going to let him go to it. Consider this in just over 70 days, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States will become the 47th and he'll begin implementing his vision of an all-powerful chief executive. Coming up, we explore what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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Product services, pricing and hours of operation may vary. See center for details. The UPS store can be unstoppable. This message comes from NPR sponsor, SOTVA. Founder and CEO Ron Rutsen shares why SOTVA sales associates are focused on finding the perfect mattress for their customers. It's SOTVA, we have a 365 day home trial. Why would we want to rush you or try to push you into something that's not right for you? We want to

make sure that we guide you to the right mattress. Our team is always available to be helpful to make sure you make the right choice. To learn more, go to SWATVA.com slash NPR. It's consider this from NPR. Through the months and months of stump speeches, Donald Trump has given in his quest to return to the White House, he's made a lot of promises, especially promises about what he will do on day one. Day one of Trump's second term

is coming up quickly in a little more than two months. Do you hear more about what day one might look like and what he might do in the early days of his administration? I spoke to NPR political correspondent Daniel Kurtz-Lavin. So day one, what's his plan? Well, we don't have a specific plan plan, but like you alluded to there, we do know what he has said will be his priorities based on what he would do on quote day one. This is a thing he said

a lot in his campaign speeches. On day one, I will do X. In fact, here he was this fall at a town hall in Flint, Michigan. You're going to hear Arkansas governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders here asking Trump a question. Tell us what you will do on day one to protect protection. So we're going to be day one. We're doing two things closing the border and drill baby drill. And this was common for him. Border security and drilling came up over

and over for him as day one priorities. Yeah. And as I've listened to him say that over and over, I have wondered what that actually means. The first piece closing the border. What does that actually look like? You know, it's unclear what this means as with many Trump policies, it's a simple slogan that gets applause, but it has few to no details attached to it. Now I've asked the campaign what this would look like, but they did not

explain in response either. So it could be a few things. There's title 42, which is the shorthand for the policy by which he and later the Biden administration used to stop and deport migrants. But that was a public health measure. And the COVID emergency is over. So it's not clear if or how Trump could use that again. He might also try to end the Biden policy of allowing people to make appointments for a asylum using something called CBP

one. Trump has railed against this, but also it's not clear. That's what he means either by quote, close the border. So that's something we're still unclear on. He has said over and over and seems to mean that he wants mass deportations. He's made that promise with Central on his campaign. Yes, very central. He has said this is also something he would start immediately. And he has said he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to do those

deportations of undocumented people. But there could be some really big hurdles to that. One is legal. You will have groups like the ACLU come together to fight deportation to say, for example, that it's unconstitutional. And even if Trump did have a legal way to do it, there are also logistical problems. There just aren't enough ICE personnel to deport millions upon millions of people. And even beyond that, you would need some place to hold

all of those detainees at some point. There are diplomatic hurdles. You can't just put undocumented people on a plane and send them to Mexico City. You would need to work it out with the Mexican government and say, Hey, we are sending X number of people to you. I could go on. There's economic issues. Even if he did do all of this, the economic fallout could be massive. Now, I say all of that. None of it is to say that deportations

won't happen. I'm not saying that at all. This has, as you pointed out, been the central promise of his campaign. Really what I'm saying here is that those deportations might not be as rapid as easy or as big as he and his supporters hope. But you can bet he'll do something. This was central for him. It's just unclear what he'll be able to do. Circle back to Danielle to the other thing. We just heard him say he would do on day one

drill, baby drill. What's he going to be able to do there? Well, all the time in his stump speech, he said he would quote unleash US energy. But the thing is it's been unleashed. Oil production is at him all time high in the US. Now, the administration can issue more oil and gas permits, but it doesn't have power over private industry. It doesn't have power

over global markets. So yeah, Trump can make it easier to drill that might bring prices down in the short term, but that doesn't mean anything for what's going to happen in the long term. That was NPR's Daniel Kurtzlapen on how Trump might approach immigration and energy in a second term. The Trump transition team is also focused on how they'll handle the defense department and the state department to learn more about that, how they may be reshaped

when Trump takes office. I spoke with NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman. What are you hearing about? What may be in store for state? Well, what we know so far is that Trump's former point person on a Ron Bryan hook is going to lead the transition team over here in the office is ready for his team. As for who's going to be Secretary of State, there are kind of a few names in the mix. One is

Rick Grinnell. He was Trump's ambassador to Germany and then acting director of national intelligence. He's been a fixture on the campaign trail very close to the Trump family and has some business deals in the Balkans, for instance, with Trump son and law Jared Kushner. He's known to be quite caustic, Grinnell, and he dresses down his critics, especially

in the media. Now, Trump could decide to keep him closer to him in the White House as national security advisor, which is a job that doesn't need Senate confirmation, but with the Senate held by Republicans getting Grinnell confirmed probably won't be a problem. But there are some senators who do want the job. There's Bill Haggert of Tennessee. He's a former businessman who was Trump's ambassador to Japan. So he knows the State Department

well. And there's Marker Rubio of Florida who appears to be in the running. And I've seen him a lot on Fox News. That's kind of the way that folks auditioned for Trump in the past. Tom Bowman, what about it? The Pentagon? Well, one of the big names we're hearing, Mary Louise is Senator Tom Kot of Arkansas. He's a former army officer with combat time in Iraq and Afghanistan well respected. He's advocated however, using the military in a support role against protesters in American

cities of some of controversial. Now, Axios is reporting cotton would prefer to stay in the Senate where Republicans have taken control and try for a leadership post. Now, if not cotton, another member of Congress for the Pentagon chief could be Congressman Mike Walts of Florida, who also served multiple tours in Afghanistan as a Green Beret, worked for Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates at the Pentagon as well. Right. And Walts

actually was on and here this morning. They talked to him on morning edition. I want to play a little bit of what he said because he weighed in on Pentagon spending and personnel. There is a whole slew of new technologies from Silicon Valley and elsewhere that are really chomping at the bit to help with our defense and security issues. And they can't break through the bureaucracy. So I think we do need a new leadership. We need a culture

change. We need to focus the defense department on being the meritocracy that it has always been. Well, you know, he raises a good point, Mary Louise, on high tech gear. I was at an army training exercise in Louisiana recently in this brigade of 101st was using small drones, electronic decoys, cyber capabilities and army officials want to quickly get this gear into the hands of soldiers. The Pentagon purchasing rules, however, just take too long.

I heard something else in that tape that I want you to go back to when he talked about focusing the defense department on being a meritocracy. What's he getting at? Yeah, that was interesting. The military has always prided itself on being a meritocracy, but there have been complaints from the Trump camp that the Pentagon is too focused on diversity, too woke, as they say. So it seems Congressman Walts is picking up on that by mentioning

meritocracy. So what does that mean in practical terms? Do you remove certain high level military officers and replace them? Last time in the waning days of the first Trump administration, they tried to remove certain officers and replace them with quote, their officers, but time ran out. Okay, Michelle back to you. The incoming Trump administration obviously is going to be walking right into two major wars underway, Ukraine, the Middle East. At the State Department,

what plans are being led for how those conflicts will be handled? Yeah, I mean, Ukraine is the big concern for the Biden team. They're trying to get as much aid out the door as possible before they leave office and get the Europeans to take more of a lead. Trump has said he would end the war quickly, but it's not clear, you know, what kind of deal Ukrainian President Folladimir Zalensky can take at the moment since Russian President Vladimir Putin will feel emboldened by Trump's victory.

So there's just a lot of nervousness around Ukraine right now. In the Middle East, the Biden administration has just seen its influence kind of evaporate overnight. They had been pushing the Israelis to get more aid into Gaza, even holding out the possibility of withholding US military aid. They're also pushing for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might, you know, just want to wait them out at this point. What about closer to home?

Because another thing Trump has talked about during the campaign is using the National Guard using active duty military to round up and deport undocumented immigrants. Can he do that? What do we know? Well, all we know is what Trump has said. He says on day one, he will begin removing millions of undocumented migrants. He's talked about using the National Guard for such an effort, maybe active duty military. People I talk would say the military could be used in a support role to help

local authorities. Now, this could be disruptive for the military as far as planning, costs, some troops may decide, Mary Louise, not to take part. Michelle, last word to you, I always hesitate to ask about the mood of a whole department because it's big. And I'm sure there are a lot of competing views. But what is the mood at the State Department? How other rank and file

reacting to the week's news? Well, I mean, I think there's a lot of nervousness. The last time the Trump administration came to office, Trump named a former ex on CEO Rex Tillerson, a secretary of state. And it was pretty chaotic. The department was hollowed out. Tillerson himself was pushed out, after a year for not being loyal enough. This time around, the Trump team seems to be more ready.

I mean, the chapter on the State Department in Project 2025 was written by a former Trump appointee, who said that the State Department has too many people who are left-wing and who disagree with the conservative president's policy. So the goal is to get as many political appointees in office on day one. So there's just a feeling that a lot of people are going to be pushed out very quickly. That was NPR's Michelle Kellerman and Tom Bowman.

This episode was produced by Lena Muhammad. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Megan Pratt's, Andrew Sussman and John Ketchum. Our executive producer is Samoyenigan. It's considered this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. But what policy changes should investors be watching?

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