Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie•www.complexsystemspodcast.com

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

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Episodes

The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and emerging fie...

Aug 29, 2024•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 8

Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine . They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud and its relevance to systems design, and the process of writing nonfiction books. The conversation touches on pathologies like what happens when organ...

Aug 22, 2024•1 hr 25 min•Ep. 7

Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fear of waste and rigid processes often stifle innovation and efficiency. The conversation then shifts to Terraform Industries' mission to create synthe...

Aug 15, 2024•1 hr 27 min•Ep. 6

Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futures

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons that resonate in more formal markets. They also explore the fallacies of rational decision-making in large organizations, the significance of obsession a...

Aug 08, 2024•1 hr 28 min•Ep. 5

Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets. – Full transcript available here : https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/ – Spo...

Aug 01, 2024•53 min•Ep. 4

Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/reporting-tech-kelsey-...

Jul 25, 2024•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 3

Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff , a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch. – Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time a...

Jul 18, 2024•52 min•Ep. 2

How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling strategies...

Jul 11, 2024•2 hr 42 min•Ep. 1

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