It's never over with Trump...Dmitri Alperovich of the Silverado Policy Accelerator comes on to discuss Trump's decision to allow the export of H200s to china. outtro music, a fan song to Jameison Greer: https://suno.com/s/yTi5R7xDRcM7p2ho Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
First half on the national security strategy you can read here https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf 26:18 we get into the second strike Tony's Taiwan baseball podcast rec: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6s26btM3CFq7FgUUmdECST?si=gMIOtaZxSPKYzk5qCNMePQ Kimi said I should set the song to veggietales, so I did. https://suno.com/s/P4XaZR6f1mphSrkP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices...
It's think tank director week at ChinaTalk! Helen Toner of CSET kicks us off to talk through where she's planning on taking the storied organization. her speech about jagged progress: https://helentoner.substack.com/p/taking-jaggedness-seriously Outtro music: https://suno.com/s/HcdTS6W1OmHh8ZYz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In the wake of Salt Typhoon, what does the future of secure telecom look like? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed John Doyle, a former Green Beret who spent a decade building Palantir’s national security practice before founding Cape , which calls itself “America’s privacy-first mobile carrier”. Also joining the conversation is Dmitri Alperovitch, chairman and co-founder of Silverado Policy Accelerator, founder of CrowdStrike, and an angel investor into Cape. Thank you to Cape for sponsoring the...
Doug, Dylan, and Wei of SemiAnalysis join me (Jon was sleeping at 5AM taiwan time...) for a pre-holiday get together. 01:00 AI Mandate--OpenAI slipping 19:03 Dylan sells TSMC on AI better than sama 24:17 Doug teaches a lesson on railroad bubbles and ai 32:30 Sarah Friar fails up 35:17 Zohran-Trump Suno slop: Moody's man came down from New York City https://suno.com/s/5DGCTgqam8dQMkZf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices...
Eric Robinson, Justin Mc, Tony Stark and I talk China's sushi ban, Witkoff's peace plan, Jake Sullivan, William Manchester's absurd memoir Here's the full text of the peace plan: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia Chapters 00:00 China bans pufferfish sperm 02:14 Peace Deal Drama 11:12 How the Trump Court explains everything 20:11 The Future of Russian Military Power 30:34 Lessons from Syria and chemical weapons 39:02 Where's Europe though 49:32 Lessons fro...
Zixuan Li is Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai (also known as Zhipu 智谱 AI). The release of their benchmark-topping flagship model, GLM 4.5, was akin to “another DeepSeek moment,” in the words of Nathan Lambert. Our conversation today covers… What sets Z.ai apart from other Chinese models, including coding, role-playing capabilities, and translations of cryptic Chinese internet content, Why Chinese AI companies chase recognition from Silicon Valley thought leaders, The role of open s...
After five long years since his last ChinaTalk appearance , Jake Sullivan returns to the show! We discuss… Sullivan’s experience managing crises, implementing grand strategy, and cultivating leadership skills during the Biden administration, The art of crafting aggressive industrial policy, from chips to rare earths to infrastructure, The risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait, and whether Pelosi’s Taipei visit was a mistake, Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship and the development of Biden’s po...
Justin and Eric cohost with Pete Modigliani and Matt McGregor, coauthors of the Defense Tech and Acquisition substack (https://defenseacquisition.substack.com/). Chapters 16:24 The Future of Defense Technology and Startups 33:37 Cultural Shifts in Acquisition Practices 44:57 Taskers and Bureaucratic Inefficiencies 55:06 Vendor Lock and Software Solutions Outtro music: more suno slop https://suno.com/s/FVtn90DmV8xuLcfp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices...
Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/), Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), and special guest Afra Wang (https://afraw.substack.com/). Our article on 'China makes AI girlfriends and America makes AI boyfriends' https://www.chinatalk.media/p/why-america-builds-ai-girlfriends More on the Hefei model: https://hellochinatech.substack.com/p/china-hefei-model 05:53 ai 12:46 remorseful AI models 29:43 AI in porn 32:17 ai voice generation uncanny valley 34:55 good Chinese AI models and the hefei ...
we cooked better than cafe milano 00:00 Colby's trainwreck of a hearing + right wing DC food 16:42 Countering Drones 35:32 How to train seriously Guests include: Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/ Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/ Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC Outtro music: more suno https://suno.com/s/hpZX8pdjirTsM5je Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoi...
Peter Harrell and Oren Cass join the show to talk IEEPA at the Supreme Court and broader US grand strategy towards China. 03:01 IEPA Tariffs and Their Implications 17:27 Reciprocity and Trade Agreements 20:13 USMCA and Fortress North America 39:01 Decoupling from China: A Strategic Perspective 43:41 Trump's Economic Approach to China 47:48 The Chips Debate: National Security and Economic Interests 01:05:24 Reflections on Political Discourse and Legal Arguments 01:16:17 a ridiculous suno song We ...
Why do leaders with vast expert bureaucracies at their fingertips make devastating foreign policy decisions? Tyler Jost , professor at Brown, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his first book, Bureaucracies at War , a fascinating analysis of miscalculation in international conflicts. As we travel from Mao’s role in border conflicts, to Deng’s blunder in Vietnam, to LBJ’s own Vietnam error, a tragic pattern emerges — leaders gradually isolating themselves from their own information gathering systems with...
Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself Chapters 02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling 05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did? 08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations 24:12 Blockades 28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology 43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections 44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights Out...
Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack. We discuss… Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones, The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles, Institutional friction withi...
Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy. Chapters: 00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama 07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style 24:27 National Defense and International Relations 40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government ...
Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack. We discuss… Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones, The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles, Institutional friction withi...
Bryan, Eric, and Justin join the fun. 00:00 Venezuela 16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations 34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters 46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy 48:44 Sledge Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden’s National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We discuss what Xi’s fourth-term means for China’s top leadership and military, Taiwan, and the US. We cover: How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao. Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy. Tari...
Guests today include Michael Horowitz (Penn now, in the Biden years was DAS for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities + Director of the Emerging Capabilities Policy Office) and Lauren Kahn (worked with Michael in the DoD, now at CSET). The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy 00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process 06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Mili...
Tarun Chhabra is Head of National Security Policy at Anthropic, and previously served as the Deputy Assistant to the President and Coordinator for Technology and National Security on Biden’s NSC. Today, our conversation covers… Why the US needs to maintain an advantage in the race for AI development against China, Whether the US’s AI industry is prepared for future competition from China, The lawyers vs. engineers debate, and what the US needs to build AI supply chains, How government and indust...
Chrisian Brose is the Chief Strategy Officer at Anduril Industries. He’s been at the forefront of the debate about how America needs to change in order to win a future war against a high-tech adversary like China. He’s the former staff director for the Senate Armed Services Committee and the author of the essential book, The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare . We discuss: Why the U.S remains dangerously vulnerable to low-cost drone attacks and what it would take to...
Chris Miller (chip wars), Chris McGuire (10 year State Dpt vet, check out the past episode on the feed) and I discuss a big move by MOFCOM to squeeze Trump in advance of their APEC summit. Outtro Music: Paul Simon, Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAb2Mu0CRk4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Last week, Jensen Huang said that China is “nanoseconds behind” the US in chipmaking. Is he right? Today, Chris McGuire joins ChinaTalk for a US-China AI hardware net assessment. Chris spent a decade as a civil servant in the State Department, serving as Deputy Senior Director for Technology and National Security on the NSC during the Biden administration and back at State for the initial months of Trump 2.0. Today, our conversation covers: Huawei vs Nvidia, and whether China can compete with US...
Bryan Clark, a former submariner now with the Hudson Institute, joins the show! Outtro speech: George C. Scott's rendition of Patton's speech Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At long last, Jeff Alstott, the fairy godfather of DC AI policy, joins the show. He’s the founding director for RAND’s center for technology and security policy, TASP, worked at NSC, NSF and IARPA, and has a PhD in complex networks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
for better or worse, the first ep on chinatalk feed I had to put an explicit tag on... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Anthony Vinci, former CTO of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and author of the upcoming book The Fourth Intelligence Revolution , joins as Second Breakfast's first ever guest. Outtro Music: Otis Redding, Something is Worrying Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ughAT80R8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices...
Jasmine Sun of https://jasmi.news/ and Nathan Lambert of https://www.interconnects.ai/ discuss a wide variety of topics of interest around AI and culture. Outtro Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujC4p7mf0XE&ab_channel=Release-Topic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
back at it again Outtro Music: Boys of the Old Brigade, Wolf Tones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoQBXgbVVT4&ab_channel=rebelsongs Book: https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/child-soldiers-in-the-western-imagination/9780813563701/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
