Today we are examining the outlook for new North American liquefaction projects to be sanctioned in 2021 amid a virtual standstill in 2020. The recent runup in the Platts JKM has buoyed developers, but challenges remain. S&P Global Platts natural writer Harry Weber spoke with Charif Souki, co-founder and executive chairman of Tellurian, which is proposing to build an export facility in Louisiana. Souki also co-founded Cheniere Energy, the biggest LNG exporter in the US.
Jan 08, 2021•31 min
The 2020 US elections were arguably the most consequential of our time. Among the many issues that drove voters to choose one candidate over another was energy. Oil, natural gas and the energy transition all were at play, and now the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden will be expected to deliver on promises made. Jasmin Melvin and Maya Weber of S&P Global Platts and Ellie Potter of S&P Global Market Intelligence discuss the challenges and opportunities for Biden in his ...
Dec 18, 2020•22 min
Earlier this year the oil market suffered a historic price collapse as pandemic-blunted demand left the world awash in crude. Against this background, the OPEC+ group in April agreed to is deepest-ever production cuts. The agreement was largely successful in fostering a recovery in oil prices throughout the summer and fall, but oil demand outlooks have again come under pressure. The group reached a compromise agreement December 3 to scale back production quotas and to meet monthly to fine-tune o...
Dec 11, 2020•23 min
US crude output fell this year in response to low demand stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. Production has held at around 10.5 million b/d to 11 million b/d since late October, according to the US Energy Information Administration. But that is down roughly 2 million b/d on the year, and many analysts expect little change for 2021. However, some oil industry leaders are much more bearish on production. Adam Waterous is one of them. Waterous, managing partner and CEO of North American private...
Dec 04, 2020•26 min
The presidential election is over, and the results are being certified. President Donald Trump may keep contesting votes in court, but we’re expecting the beginning of the Biden administration come January. Today we look at the state of the midstream oil sector amid an ongoing pandemic and an upcoming Democratic White House that won’t be as friendly toward putting new pipe in the ground. The never-ending fight over the Keystone XL pipeline hangs in the balance, as does the fate of the 3-year-old...
Nov 30, 2020•29 min
California and its clean car ambitions had a lot riding on the US presidential election. The state's Air Resources Board spent the Trump presidency fighting with the US Environmental Protection Agency about its rollback of Obama-era tailpipe standards, which were set to increase average fuel economy of the US passenger vehicle fleet by 5% annually from 2021 to 2026. The Trump administration slashed these targets to a 1.5% annual increase. Trump's EPA also moved to revoke California's long-held w...
Nov 20, 2020•22 min
The US oil and gas sector is facing several huge transitions all at once: the immediate crisis brought on by the pandemic and a longer-term energy transition away from fossil fuels. Today we're looking at a third shift confronting the US upstream: digital transformation and the need for the oil and gas workforce to catch up in this area. A new survey by Ernst & Young found a major digital skills gap among the oil and gas workforce, and the pandemic is increasing the urgency to close it. Abou...
Nov 13, 2020•19 min
Joe Biden is now officially president-elect after securing a win in natural gas-rich Pennsylvania despite the fight over fracking we've heard so much about these last long weeks. S&P Global Platts Analytics predicts a muted production impact if Biden bans new federal drilling permits, putting up to 1.1 million b/d of oil output and 3.7 Bcf/d of gas output at risk by 2025. On this special episode, we take a look at the implications ahead for energy and climate policy with Washington analyst K...
Nov 07, 2020•21 min
Dozens of highly consequential energy issues are at play in this week’s US elections, ranging from who will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years, to who will fill the last open seat on the Texas Railroad Commission. But overhanging all of this is a US economy crippled by the ongoing pandemic. Beth Ann Bovino, US Chief Economist for S&P Global Ratings, helps explore this unique interplay.
Oct 30, 2020•19 min
It's Election Day in the US, and at a lot is at stake in the energy sector for the next four years. We're revisiting three key policy areas that could shift direction depending on today's vote: * US policy in the Middle East and Washington's relationship with OPEC, with Amy Myers Jaffe, research professor and managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University's Fletcher School. * US oil sanctions toward Venezuela and Washington's so-far failed attempts to remove the Maduro regime fr...
Oct 27, 2020•24 min
A victory by Joe Biden in the US presidential election could have a big impact on the US-Mexico relationship and might even force the Mexican administration to change course on its energy goals. Mexico's energy policy is currently focused on fossil fuels, despite having international commitments to move toward green sources of energy and the legal framework to do so. We spoke with Guillermo Zuniga about how a Biden White House would change this dynamic and how he sees Mexico's path forward on cl...
Oct 26, 2020•17 min
US oil and gas producers were already facing a tough investment climate by the time this spring's price crash and demand plunge decimated capital spending plans. Layered on top of this near-term crisis is a much bigger, longer-term threat: climate change. A recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission report argues climate change could pose a major risk to the stability of the US financial system. It backs an economy-wide carbon price and recommends that banks pilot the use of stress tests -- bot...
Oct 19, 2020•19 min
For the global oil market, one of the biggest wildcards of the US presidential election is Iran sanctions relief under a Biden administration. This would return more than 2 million b/d to an already very oversupplied oil market. Today we have two predictions for how this would play out and how quickly. Nareeka Ahir, geopolitical analyst for S&P Global Platts Analytics, argues that Biden will want to strike a quick interim deal with Tehran. She sees Iranian crude exports growing annually by 7...
Oct 12, 2020•21 min
The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly accelerated the digitization of US energy companies, moving operational technology and corporate networks into workers' homes. Leo Simonovich, vice president and global head of industrial cyber and digital security at Siemens Energy, says this has heightened the need for oil, gas and power companies to increase their cyber defenses. With more point-to-point connections as a result of remote working, energy companies face the potential for more cyberattacks. W...
Oct 05, 2020•16 min
The US presidential election could have far-reaching implications for the global oil market. Chris Midgley, global head of analytics for S&P Global Platts, takes us through the biggest potential impacts for supply, demand and price. He covers Iran sanctions relief scenarios, the outlook for OPEC+ cohesion, the US upstream forecast under Biden drilling restrictions and the future of US trade relations after a chaotic four years. Stick around after the interview for the Market Minute, a look a...
Sep 28, 2020•19 min
In Part 2 of our look at the US presidential candidates' evolving energy platforms, we examine how progressive Democrats have pushed former Vice President Joe Biden further left on climate and environmental policies. Glenn Schwartz, director of Rapidan Energy Group's Energy Policy Service, shares his latest prediction for how far Biden will go in restricting oil and gas drilling, and why running mate Kamala Harris' views on fracking and climate remain important in predicting the future of the De...
Sep 22, 2020•7 min
In this two-part episode, we look at how both US presidential candidates' energy platforms have evolved since the start of campaigning. They have had to respond to massive market shifts, a string of natural disasters signaling a changing climate, and waning poll numbers in key states. In Part 1, we look at President Donald Trump's platform with Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor and CEO of Canary, a Denver-based drilling services company. We ask Eberhart about Trump's recent actions to ban drillin...
Sep 21, 2020•15 min
How much will November's presidential election actually influence the outlook for US oil and gas production? Artem Abramov, head of shale research for Rystad Energy, makes the somewhat contrarian case that whoever is in the White House come next year will not greatly sway US production either way. Rystad predicts a federal drilling ban, as proposed by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, would have hardly any impact on oil and gas production in the medium term, given drillers' ability to s...
Sep 14, 2020•19 min
The November presidential election adds to risks for natural gas pipelines, which link production to demand centers but increasingly face opposition from those seeking to phase out fossil fuels. For interstate gas pipelines, the federal government remains an important gatekeeper for permitting. If Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president, a change in leadership at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission raises questions about whether federal approvals would still be as predictable. In ...
Aug 31, 2020•18 min
A victory in November for former Vice President Joe Biden in November could influence oil and gas companies' decarbonization plans, given Biden's climate and clean energy proposals. European oil majors tend to outpace their US counterparts in terms of climate goals, likely due to the European Green Deal, but could a Democratic victory this fall encourage companies to adopt stricter emission reduction targets? We spoke with John Thieroff, senior analyst with Moody's Investors Service, to help us ...
Aug 24, 2020•24 min
Global oil supply far exceeds demand right now as the coronavirus pandemic keeps travel restrictions in place and commuters working from home. Commodities analysts Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg, managing partners of Goehring and Rozencwajg, argue that the pandemic and current oil market conditions will be a catalyst for a coming global energy crisis. They think we're not far from a global oil shortage because of the lack of investment happening today and the rapid depletion of the best US s...
Aug 17, 2020•20 min
Guyana is one of the most promising new sources for non-OPEC oil production growth, and the country just emerged from a chaotic five-month election drama. Opposition leader Mohamed Irfaan Ali was sworn into office as the country's new president last week. The small South American country is home to the biggest oil discovery in recent years. In January, ExxonMobil boosted its reserves estimate for the Stabroek Block to more than 8 billion barrels. Tristan Reilly of S&P Global Platts Analytics...
Aug 10, 2020•26 min
US oil producers have started bringing some shut-in wells back online since this spring's price crash. S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the nearly all the shut-in volumes to come back by October. But US oil output will continue to decline as a result of some $41 billion in capital expenditure cuts announced by drillers this year. Ash Singh, manager of non-OPEC supply at Platts Analytics, expects US production to decline around 500,000 b/d year on year in 2020 and more than 1.5 million b/d...
Aug 03, 2020•20 min
A massive regulatory shift could occur if US President Donald Trump loses the White House in November. Former Vice President Joe Biden has embraced energy and climate priorities that swing further left than many of the Obama administration’s, as evidenced by his recently announced four-year, $2 trillion climate plan focused on clean energy infrastructure and jobs. We spoke with David Livingston, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, to help us understand the potential shift that is in store. He s...
Jul 27, 2020•25 min
US President Donald Trump has used the phrase "take the oil" many times, both as a candidate to criticize previous administrations' strategies in Iraq and while in the White House when discussing Syria. The idea is rooted in the belief that countries have gone to war in the past to grab natural resources, especially oil. This week's guest scrutinized that idea in her new book, "The Oil Wars Myth." Emily Meierding, an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, analyzed more than 600 in...
Jul 20, 2020•14 min
Last week delivered some huge news on the pipeline front that highlights the challenges ahead for the US midstream sector and the fate of future efforts to build multi-state energy projects. First Duke Energy and Dominion Energy announced they were canceling the Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline after already spending more than $3 billion on it. Then a federal judge ordered Energy Transfer to shut down the Dakota Access crude pipeline and empty it of oil by August 5 while the Army Corps of Eng...
Jul 13, 2020•24 min
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a host of other global tensions and trade conflicts brewing in recent months have heightened geopolitical risks to energy trade. Harvard University professor Meghan O'Sullivan shares what she sees as the top geopolitical themes likely to persist beyond the pandemic. O'Sullivan is the director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. She was a special assistant to former US President George W. Bush and a deputy n...
Jun 29, 2020•33 min
US oil and gas drilling has slowed to a crawl since global oil demand crashed this spring and prices tumbled with it. Now that WTI has crept back up into the high $30s/b and potentially above $40/b, have we seen the worst of this drilling slowdown? Ted Hall, a vice president at Kayrros, shares his views on current activity, bolstered by satellite and other geo-tracking. We talk about what the drilled-but-uncompleted well count means for future production and whether the US will ever return to th...
Jun 22, 2020•15 min
Rapidan Energy Group predicts sweeping changes for the energy sector if former Vice President Joe Biden beats US President Donald Trump in November. Biden's policies would have global implications for energy trade, altering US/China relations, the pace of Iran's oil recovery, trans-Atlantic climate action and other factors. In the US, a Biden White House would likely sharply limit oil and gas production on federal lands and waters, impose new climate-focused financial regulations that could rest...
Jun 15, 2020•11 min
US oil producers have started announcing plans for putting shut wells back online. But just how sustainable are these plans at current prices and with the uncertain global demand outlook? And how are OPEC and its allies going to view this returning US shale production as they're deciding how long to keep their massive oil supply cuts in place? Jason Modglin, the new president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, tells us how drillers in the top US oil-producing state are weighing the marke...
Jun 08, 2020•10 min
