The global oil demand shock is accelerating what was already coming to US shale, argues Adam Waterous, CEO of Waterous Energy Fund. Waterous argued in January on Capitol Crude that US unconventional production had peaked, and the industry's unstable financial footing set it up for massive capital flight and a prolonged downturn. Now Waterous predicts US shale output will sink by 3 million-4 million b/d from the peak of 13 million b/d if oil prices eventually return to $55/b. He thinks sustained ...
Jun 01, 2020•20 min
The US House of Representatives has passed the $3 trillion HEROES stimulus package with barely a mention of the energy sector. The legislation is going nowhere in its current form after Senate Republicans dismissed it out of hand and President Trump promised to veto it. So where is the financial aid that the White House promised the oil and gas sector? Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, tells us how Republicans and Democrats might find energy-sector tradeoffs to include ...
May 18, 2020•23 min
Plunging demand, collapsing prices and a reeling global economy are creating an extremely tough climate for the US upstream oil and gas sector. US Senator Dan Sullivan, Republican-Alaska, argues another factor is basically kicking the sector while it's down. Sullivan says some of the largest US banks are no longer willing to lend the sector money -- not because of these economic concerns -- but because of their environmental impact. He and 15 other US senators asked the White House to investigat...
May 11, 2020•20 min
US President Donald Trump has promised relief to the ailing oil and gas sector, and it's not yet clear if the recently expanded Federal Reserve lending program is the full extent of that aid. Democrats easily blocked the administration's first attempt to help drillers in the form of buying US crude at low prices to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The incident underscored just how hard it would be to get any kind of fossil fuel relief through Congress. A recent survey by the Brunswick Group...
May 04, 2020•15 min
A surge of Saudi crude is heading for US ports, the result of the OPEC heavyweight slashing its April selling prices during the thick of its price war with Russia last month. Oil-state senators are calling on the White House to impose tariffs or other trade barriers to stop the deliveries. So far President Trump has not addressed the looming imports, but Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette called it a case of free-market trade that happens to benefit US refiners. We spoke with two officials from AF...
Apr 27, 2020•17 min
With the world locked down for the coronavirus, global oil demand is seeing its sharpest plunge on record. Current estimates have 2020 oil demand contracting by as little as 6.8 million b/d, as predicted by OPEC, to as much as 9.3 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency. Still further downgrades are possible based on when economic activity starts to return. But so much is unknown about that timeline all across the globe. So how does an oil analyst predict future demand in the f...
Apr 20, 2020•16 min
President Donald Trump once saw gasoline prices below $1/gallon one of his greatest assets in his re-election campaign, but low oil prices have pushed US shale and American energy dominance to the brink of collapse and his views have changed. On this week’s podcast, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, talks about the new OPEC+ agreement, the damage the price war may have had on US-Saudi relations, and where the “new normal” for global oil demand might be after global coronavirus rest...
Apr 13, 2020•19 min
OPEC, primarily Saudi Arabia, has found blame for the recent price collapse, with calls from the US Congress for tariffs, import bans and sanctions. To start this week’s Capitol Crude, Senator Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican, talks about his views on how the Saudis are trying to crater prices and destroy the US shale industry. But how much can OPEC really do to stem the recent oil price collapse? Why was OPEC’s role as a swing producer unable to offset the demand impacts of the spread of...
Apr 06, 2020•15 min
US lawmakers from oil-producing states are trying to increase pressure on the White House to do something to help drillers getting hammered by plummeting prices -- from aggressive diplomacy to banning crude imports. We spoke with US Senator Lisa Murkowski, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. She expects producers in her home state of Alaska to take an immediate hit from current prices. Additionally, she said operations could be scaled back significantly after a case of...
Apr 01, 2020•18 min
The consequences of this will likely last years. In the midst of a price war, global oil demand is in a free fall. The spread of the coronavirus has left 3 billion people worldwide unable to get on a plane, drive to work or go anywhere, really, at all. In response, global oil demand is plummeting. The International Energy Agency says as much as 20 million b/d of oil demand may be lost this year. On today’s Capitol Crude podcast, Sarah Ladislaw, senior vice president and director and senior fello...
Mar 30, 2020•16 min
As oil prices dipped to levels not seen in nearly two decades, US shale operators slashed budgets and rig counts and braced for a hellish few months, if not years. Is even a modest price rebound possible in the near term? Will Saudi Arabia and Russia return to talks over a new supply cut? Has the price collapse forever altered US oil sanctions policy? On today's Capitol Crude Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, talks about the path forwar...
Mar 23, 2020•10 min
US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette joined Capitol Crude hours after his department announced it was seeking an initial 30 million barrels of US crude oil to store in the country's emergency stockpile. This is part of President Donald Trump's pledge to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right up to the top." We spoke with Brouillette about how this attempt to help US oil producers will work. We asked him about the fate of US production and exports and where he ultimately sees global oil deman...
Mar 19, 2020•12 min
The fallout from the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC+ supply cut agreement have dealt US shale producers a massive blow. How the sector ultimately fares might depend on where US oil exports are headed. US crude exports climbed above 4 million b/d in the last week of February, but will that represent a peak for this year and beyond? Port of Corpus Christi CEO Sean Strawbridge joined Platts senior editor Jordan Blum in Houston to talk about how US exporters are weathering this storm....
Mar 15, 2020•26 min
The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia is ... complicated. For decades, the US has depended on the Saudis for crude oil exports and the Saudis have depended on the US for military protection. But US shale oil growth has changed all that. On this week’s Capitol Crude, Ellen Wald talks about the state of US-Saudi relations, how that relationship may change further if there is a Democrat in the White House, and what low oil prices are doing to Saudi Aramco shares and the kingdom’s 2030 vi...
Mar 09, 2020•25 min
Seemingly long-term US sanctions on oil flows out of Iran and Venezuela, a blockade in Libya with no end in sight, and even more production cuts from the OPEC+ coalition expected this week are adding up to a loss of roughly 6% of global supply -- but prices are cratering. Demand, specifically weakening demand caused by the effects of the coronavirus, is far outweighing even unprecedented declines in supply. On this week’s podcast, Fernando Ferreira, Rapidan Energy Group’s director of geopolitica...
Mar 02, 2020•20 min
As investors and consumers demand more focus on sustainability, the oil industry is feeling the pressure. What will an energy transition mean for liquid fuel use, and will oil refiners be able to respond to radical shifts in demand in the coming decades? We spoke with Madhav Acharya, the technology to market adviser at the US Department of Energy's independent Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy.
Feb 24, 2020•18 min
Even with the Democratic candidate still uncertain, this November’s US presidential election presents two distinctly divergent paths forward for global oil policy, David Goldwyn says on today’s Platts Capitol Crude podcast. Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies and chair of the Atlantic Council’s energy advisory group, says a Trump victory will allow the Trump administration to fully implement its plans to expand US oil and gas production and cut environmental regulations. A Democrat v...
Feb 18, 2020•24 min
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney hopes to end his government's oil production curtailments this year as rail and pipeline capacity expand to handle the full supply. The province posted record-high oil production in December despite the curtailments, as exemptions for crude-by-rail shipments allowed producers to boost output. Curtailed operators have added 30 rigs year on year as they move capital back into growth projects. Kenney believes the cuts, which he inherited from the previous government, sa...
Feb 10, 2020•27 min
After more than a year of crippling US sanctions, Venezuela’s once-thriving oil sector is a shell of its former self: its output just a fraction of its peak, its state-run oil company toxic to international investors, its pipelines crumbling, its refineries closed. A new report from the Inter-American Dialogue argues that Western oil companies will be needed if Venezuela’s oil sector can be revived. The report details interviews with eight of the largest Western oil companies, some that have lef...
Feb 03, 2020•18 min
When it comes to total shareholder return, oil and gas companies have performed the worst of any industry over the past five years, according to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group. Oil price and geopolitical uncertainty, mistrust of management and the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels have all contributed to investor wariness, the report states. How can these companies, from supermajors to small E&Ps, rebuild investor confidence and improve shareholder returns? Rebecca Fit...
Jan 27, 2020•26 min
Record supply disruptions in an already well supplied market may have contributed to the departure of a true risk premium in the oil market, Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitical advisor with S&P Global Platts Analytics tells Platts Capitol Crude. On this week’s podcast, Sheldon says the risk premium could return following a major supply disruption or a flare up in military tensions between the US and Iran.
Jan 17, 2020•8 min
As rising US oil production allows the Trump administration to rewrite foreign policy, what if projections for its continued growth are wrong? Adam Waterous, CEO of Waterous Energy Fund, thinks North American oil and gas producers face severe capital flight risks in the coming years that could result in US crude output falling by 2 million b/d or more. He says the sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn unlike anything it as has seen before – not another typical boom/bust cycle of the past. ...
Jan 10, 2020•20 min
Crude prices have surged, Iran has vowed revenge and analysts expect another attack on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, potentially impacting global oil supply significantly in the near term. On this Platts Capitol Crude we talk to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an Iran expert, on the policy and market impacts of the US killing of Iran’s top military commander, General Qassim Soleimani, in airstrikes in Baghdad. Taleblu says Iran w...
Jan 03, 2020•18 min
Carbon-capture projects are economically unviable at the moment and will need a major increase in government spending for wide-scale deployment, says John Minge, former chairman and president of BP America. On today’s Platts Capitol Crude, Minge talks about the policy changes needed, including expansion of federal tax incentives, to build out the carbon-capture technology that many point to as one path to address the release of greenhouse gases from growing oil and natural gas development. Devel...
Dec 30, 2019•15 min
The oil market is closing out 2019 with a smaller geopolitical risk premium despite the September attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility exposing a staggering supply vulnerability. Greg Priddy, Stratfor's director of global energy and Middle East, argues the oil market can no longer hold onto a risk premium, between hedging and the responsiveness of US shale production. He said a sharp premium would only return in the event of a major and prolonged oil supply disruption. Priddy walked us throu...
Dec 23, 2019•24 min
US oil producers seem to be at an inflection point, where efficiency gains are waning, output growth is slowing and capital is drying up, Antoine Halff tells Platts Capitol Crude. On this week’s episode, Halff talks rig counts, well completions and flaring, the likely impact of deeper OPEC cuts, and he forecasts the path forward for US oil output. Halff also talks about why lagging government data may be selling a false narrative that the US is a swing producer and details his working theory on ...
Dec 16, 2019•19 min
OPEC, Russia and its nine other oil-producing allies have agreed to fresh supply cuts, but how much compliance will they achieve in the next three months? Former Capitol Crude host Herman Wang returns with details of the deal struck Friday in Vienna. The contentious talks featured a walkout by Angola and hardball by Iraq and Russia. Saudi Aramco’s massive initial public offering hung over the events, but US President Donald Trump’s oil tweets stayed home.
Dec 09, 2019•6 min
The US shale oil boom has been heralded as an economic windfall for small towns from New Mexico to North Dakota. But it has also strained local public services, putting a toll on education, infrastructure and housing, while leaving many communities moresusceptible to the boom and bust nature of oil prices. On this week’s Platts Capitol Crude podcast, we talk with Daniel Raimi, a senior research associate at Resources for the Future and a lecturer at the University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford Sc...
Dec 02, 2019•13 min
As US crude oil exports surge above 3 million b/d, is the US-China trade dispute inhibiting growth? Can US crude oil exporters survive without access to the world's biggest demand market? On today's Platts Capitol Crude, we talk to Jacques Rousseau, managing director with ClearView Energy Partners, about the impact of the trade dispute on exports and the state of US export infrastructure. Are tariffs impacting investment decisions on ports and pipelines?
Nov 25, 2019•7 min
On today’s Platts Capitol Crude, Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, says Bakken oil output will continue to break records into 2020, but enforcement of gas capture rules will hinder growth, potentially for years. Helms, North Dakota’s top oil and gas regulator, talks about why state regulators can no longer allow operators to exceed flaring limits and what is preventing growth of gas capture capacity in the state. Sami Yahya, a senior energy analyst with S&...
Nov 18, 2019•20 min
