Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back on the big 300 th episode to discuss whether Michael Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin Yield’ makes sense and looking at why people are buying MicroStrategy vs just buying Bitcoin. Then they talk Nvidia earnings and how it is getting cheaper on a forward 12-month PE ratio basis even as the price has moved higher. Plus, they look at the options action on Nvidia right before earnings. Speaking of semiconductors, they look at a potentially bearish pattern in the SOX Index,...
Nov 25, 2024•54 min•Ep. 300
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk through the latest market action including the forward PE ratio looking frothy, yields continue rising, probability of rate cuts dropping, and when and if the US Dollar strength will be a problem. Plus, talking about Barron’s article comparing the market cap of MicroStrategy vs the value of their Bitcoin holdings. S&P 500 Index earnings yield vs the 10-year Treasury yield. Then, they discuss why people are saying we are going to have a coming second surg...
Nov 18, 2024•49 min•Ep. 299
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli decide who got the S&P 500 Index 6000 prediction right. Then they talk about Bitcoin running to new highs and some theories about a Bitcoin strategic reserve now that Trump is the President Elect. Later, they review some data pointing to bond yields remaining high (or going higher). Then discussing how investment banks S&P targets rise to follow the markets. All that plus a listener email. Small Cap fund flows into IWM TLT ETF bond flows Bitcoin makes new...
Nov 11, 2024•59 min•Ep. 298
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported. Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the 10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market c...
Nov 03, 2024•1 hr 33 min
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&...
Oct 27, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 296
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are discussing what segments of the market are now working on in October plus whether new auto loan delinquencies are something to worry about. Then, reacting to Barron’s headline saying Warren Buffett selling Apple shares may have resulted in leaving $25 billion on the table. Later, they get into whether the comparisons of Nvidia today to Cisco in the late nineties is a fare comparison and if Nvidia is as overvalued as Cisco was in retrospect. Finally, they delv...
Oct 21, 2024•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 295
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss whether the level of the VIX Index at all-time market highs is a predictor of future market moves. Then, with earnings season kicking off in earnest, reviewing the analyst lofty estimates including some very surprising numbers for Russell 2000 Index companies. Later, Derek goes through some data that basically says the CPI YoY % change isn’t around 2% too often despite the Feds “mandate” of 2% inflation target. Finally, they discuss NFLX...
Oct 14, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 294
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli ask whether the VIX is too high given markets are at all-time highs and compare today to some previous periods. Then, they delve into the employment report which surprised in a positive way. Was good news good news for once? What this means for probabilities of future rate cuts by the Fed, the port strike that wrapped up, and a look at some individual tickers and markets from a technical analysis standpoint. Resistance, support, wedges and more on this week’s epi...
Oct 06, 2024•49 min•Ep. 293
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli this week answer some audience questions plus comparing 1995 first Fed rate cut to today’s market and asking if the next year can be a repeat of the 1995-96 period. They also dispel the myth that the Fed has never cut rates when markets are at all-time highs. Later, they look at the China and Emerging markets surge after the Chinese government does a bunch of things to juice markets. In the questions Derek and Jay dispel some myths between NAV erosion and NAV dec...
Sep 29, 2024•55 min
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to do a post Fed 50 basis point cut analysis. What typically happens a year later in markets after the first interest rate cut? Maybe there isn’t election volatility priced into the VIX and it’s all to do with interest rates. Plus, looking back at the S&P 500 year end 2024 predictions top investment banks made in December of 2023. Hint, it didn’t go the way they expected. How many new all-time highs have we had this year and how does that compare wit...
Sep 22, 2024•51 min•Ep. 291
Derek Moore covers what you need to know going into the fed meeting. Plus, reviewing whether the Fed has ever cut rates with a forward price to earnings ratios this high? Then looking at potential technical analysis outcomes on the S&P 500 Index include a cup with handle, triple top, and more. Historical Forward PE ratios at Fed cuts VIX Index doesn’t go berserk during Wednesday’s CPI selloff and recovery Is the market pricing in too many future fed cuts Comparing CPI Supercore, CPI Core, an...
Sep 15, 2024•37 min•Ep. 290
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to talk employment, Fed cuts, recession (or not), forward earnings multiples, VIX, VVIX, crude oil recession sign, currencies, and more! Looking at 3 2024 stock market selloffs this year Crude oil as a recession indicator? Currencies and Commodities driving stocks right now? Why markets may be trading on technical VIX and VVIX goings on Why VIX is tough to trade S&P 500 Index forward earnings and multiples First rate cut isn’t always the biggest Resp...
Sep 09, 2024•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 289
Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia’s beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn’t. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Fin...
Aug 31, 2024•34 min•Ep. 288
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli once again are here to break down the Jay Powell Jackson Hole statement and the market reaction including latest interest rate projections. Then they comment on the idea proposed by politicians of price caps and whether companies are making record profits based on net profit margins. Later they discussed the huge revision lower in employment number in the establishment survey and whether it’s a big deal or now and why the difference between the monthly releases a...
Aug 25, 2024•43 min•Ep. 287
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to discuss the surge and record collapse back below 17.6 in the VIX Index. Plus, Reviewing the difference between the VIX Index (not tradable) and VIX Futures relative spike levels. Then, they go into the latest CPI numbers including CPI Supercore to see what is sticky and what is negative. Finally, they discuss whether Chairman Jerome Powel is going to disappoint markets with only a 25-bps cut when everyone seems to want more. All that and more includin...
Aug 18, 2024•50 min•Ep. 286
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli jumped on a special edition podcast to discuss whether the move in things like the VIX and VIX were warranted given the technical surroundings of the carry trade and where markets went. Looking back at previous VIX spikes and the high yield spread in times of crisis. Plus, discussing how some strategies held up and some insights into what went on. Finally, what a higher volatility regime would mean for strategies that sell options like covered calls or high proba...
Aug 09, 2024•47 min•Ep. 285
Derek Moore is back to talk through the latest market volatility as the VIX and VVIX both spiked this week. Markets had 2 greater than 2% pullbacks. Reading into the latest unemployment rate data. Plus, unpacking the unwinding of the carry trade involving the Japanese Yen and how this started before the recent market retracement. Finally, examining the high yield bond market as it has shown positive non-correlation with equities of late. What does a currency Carry Trade mean? What is the carry t...
Aug 04, 2024•39 min•Ep. 284
Derek Moore is back to take some listener questions on the political ramifications for the stock market, covered calls, and other general market and option questions. Also, he’ll cover the continued coverage of the market broadening out in its participation especially from small caps and the non-mag-7 companies. What about on the economic front? All this and more this week. What political party is better for the stock market? Does it matter who is in office? Google earnings announcement $1Billio...
Jul 29, 2024•27 min•Ep. 283
Derek Moore looks beyond mega cap tech by examining while this month the S&P 500 Index is relatively flat, equal weight and extended markets catch a bid. Plus, talk of a tight high yield spread but what does that mean? Later, looking at the upcoming earnings including Tesla and Google. Finally, reviewing typical VIX seasonality patterns. Earnings including Tesla and Google this week Performance of the S&P 500 Index against extended markets and equal weight S&P 500 Index Comparing the...
Jul 21, 2024•31 min•Ep. 282
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back together to discuss what happens after the Fed makes its first rate cut historically in markets. Plus, what if everyone is wrong about rate cuts? Then, they look at the historical spread between inflation and the Fed Funds rate plus how would investors take the other side of rate cuts? Finally, they discuss the idea of this being the 1990s all over again with AI as a technological revolution like the internet boom? Earnings season is in full bloom Fed Fu...
Jul 15, 2024•48 min•Ep. 281
Derek Moore is back to discuss the recent talk from the “talking heads on TV” that the economy is weakening. What are they looking at and are they right? Then Derek explains using Tesla as an example of implied volatility going higher while a stock runs higher. Reviewing the latest nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and initial jobless claims. Finally, Derek goes through what happens when markets go up from a fundamental standpoint including Forward PE multiples changing, earnings estimates, s...
Jul 07, 2024•36 min•Ep. 280
Derek Moore is back to discuss the WSJ article comparing Nvidia to Cisco and Jim Cramer’s response. Is Nvidia in a bubble? Wall Street Journal Article on Cisco 2000 vs Nvidia 2024 Forward PE multiples then and now Cisco vs Nvidia Data showing bull markets often continue the second half of the year When markets are up 10% first half of the year what happens next? Don’t give up on the bull market yet based on data? Implied Volatility spikes in France compared to Germany What does 100% Moneyness me...
Jun 30, 2024•31 min•Ep. 279
Derek Moore is back to go over some bullish and bearish economic and market items. Avocado prices are spiking while lumber prices are falling. Divergence between the Trucking Tonnage Index vs the S&P 500 Index. Later we discuss the lack of historical volatility in the market given we haven’t had a greater than 2.05% down day for over 375 days. Then taking listener questions around the probability a market goes up or down 9.8% and what goes into calculating option probabilities. Finally, Dere...
Jun 23, 2024•34 min•Ep. 278
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial are back with a Fed meeting day edition where they break down the new end of year interest rate dot plots and Jay Powell’s press conference. Plus, they riff on Harry Dent’s latest prediction saying Nvidia is going down 98% and why the doom and gloom crowd are harmful to investors. Later discussing Apple’s breakout after their AI announcement at WWDC conference and the reaction to the CPI inflation print. All this and more! Apple’s AI WWDC a...
Jun 14, 2024•33 min•Ep. 277
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial look at some what seem like crazy options trades in GameStop. Plus, examining Nvidia passing Apple as the second largest stock in the S&P 500, and can it pass Microsoft for #1? They also talk about whether it’s a problem the top 4 stocks in the S&P 500 make up such a large percentage of the weighting and comparing it to the last time it was this high. Later they take some listener questions including whether the data shows cracks in...
Jun 09, 2024•46 min•Ep. 276
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial review some interesting VIX option trades around the election and around inauguration day in 2025 compared to the next few months options action. When young people say home ownership dreams are dead is that true? Surprising numbers to compare inflation adjusted costs. Plus, on Friday the market swung from down over 1% to up almost 1% as we continue to be in a buy the dip regime. Later discussing the evolving Fed rate cut expectations and wh...
Jun 02, 2024•50 min•Ep. 275
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial talk about Nvidia’s earnings report and how they are catching up to Apple in total market cap. Will they cash Microsoft? Then they note the percentage of companies mentioning AI on earnings calls. What does that mean for CAPEX spending on semiconductor chips? Later they look at how housing prices after a small drop are now growing YoY despite higher interest rates and higher payment per median home price. The gold rally now one is noticing ...
May 27, 2024•58 min•Ep. 274
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial start by looking at GameStop’s (GME) call option open interest and activity in the days prior to Roaring Kitty tweeting . They notice the increase in options activity ahead of the surge in the stock’s price and volume spike and whether the options market led the stock market on GME. Then they comment on another new all-time high by the S&P 500 Index and how according to a BofA chart 90% of the time markets are not in a recession or in s...
May 19, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 273
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial discuss the idea that the stock market is in a Goldilocks period based on sustained higher margins and earnings growth. Then, they discuss how out of the headlines the Fed has already started easing by reducing their balance sheet runoff each month. Why reducing the Overnight Reverse Repo usage (RRP) isn’t restrictive but rather was a reaction to demand for short term treasuries by money markets. Later they talk about how interest rates are...
May 12, 2024•1 hr•Ep. 272
Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial this week to discuss the Jay Powell Fed decision and the latest in employment and inflation. Then, they do a deep dive into dividend reinvestment. Specifically, analyzing the idea of acquiring more shares and can dividends reduce or eventually pay down your initial cost? They then do a deep dive into how the time premium works on options. Lowest year over year wages since 2021 Unemployment ticks up. High dividend stocks and dividen...
May 05, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 271
