All the News is Out? |Nvidia Earnings Breakdown | Implied Volatility and Earnings for Nvidia | Is the Long Bond Trade Getting Crowded?
Episode description
Derek Moore is back to break down Nvidia’s beat, but not beat (whisper number), their growth year over year, their profit margins, and percent they beat on the top and bottom line. Then, looking at the implied volatility and expected move post earnings in Nvidia and how to calculate it. Understanding why sometimes a long straddle option position before earnings makes money and other times it doesn’t. Later, peeking in at the implied Fed Funds rate cut probabilities for the September meeting. Finally, “everyone” seems to be saying its time to buy longer maturity bonds. Is that view getting crowded and why will or won’t long rates move lower because the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate.
Nvidia earning beat but misses the “whisper” number
After hours trading reaction to Nvidia earnings
Difference between Gross profit and Net profit
Nvidia’s massive profit margins compared to grocery stores
Earning growth year over year
Implied volatility pre-earnings to compute the implied expected stock move
Why option premiums and volatility rise before earnings announcements
How implied volatility gets sucked out of markets post earnings
Long Straddles at the money before earnings characteristics and risks
The Fed is expected to lower the front part of the interest rate curve
What does that mean for the back half of the longer duration bond maturities?
The spread between the 10-year treasury bond and the 30-year mortgage rate
Hindenburg Research negative piece on Super Micro Computer SMCI
Mentioned in this Episode
Hindenburg negative research on Super Micro Computer https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/
Jay Powell & The “Good Ship Transitory” | Price Caps Proposed by Politicians | Huge Employment Revisions | US Dollar Breaking Down?
https://open.spotify.com/episode/09SZBfu7OSlh5ygHONqY1s?si=SwTdDLMUQS67KHvCjNkZMA
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com