Hello, everybody, is a been stunning twenty four hours or so with respect to Russia and Ukraine. It's about seven am here on the East coast. I'm going to break down for everybody of what we know. Here's the headline. The head of the Wagner Group, you have, Geny Brigosen, is currently in control of at least some part of the city of rosavon Don in Russia, after launching what is apparently a military coup against Vladimir Putin and his leadership.
Rosavon Don.
We talked about it actually here before, huge logistical hub for the Russian war in Ukraine. Let's back up, how did we get here to this genuinely stunning and crazy development. So Progozen some of you probably will know him. He was the Russian mercenary warrior, head of the Wagner Group. He actually took credit for the Russian victory in Bachma.
He's been probably one of the most serious fighters that's currently in the conflict, and he has always been a major and fierce critic of the Chief of the Russian
Armed Forces and of the Russian Defense Minister. His criticism has bainly been that the Wagner Group has not received enough ammunition from the Russians, not enough support, that the Russian military is just throwing troops into the meat grinder without any concern for their welfare, and is emerged as a major defender for Russian troop welfare inside of Ukraine. Well after he's got the city of Bakwen, he has this victory, he's actually gained stature in the Russian public.
About twenty four hours ago, he put out a video which stunned absolutely all of us, where he blasted the war in Ukraine, said that it was launched under false pretenses. He said that Russian oligarchs had gotten greedy after plundering the Dunboss region, which was already in an active conflict zone, and that they just wanted to pillage even more of Ukraine.
He even said that the war itself, the basis was complete bs Russia was not in danger at the time of the invasion, so obviously that was basically a redline, and chaos ensued. So he demanded the resident nation of the Defense Minister and then the chief of the Russian Armed Forces. Now in the middle of the night Moscow time is when this sal going down. So the immediate sign that the Russian authorities were absolutely not going to
let this stand. Is that the FSB, the main security agency, the successor to the KGB, opened a criminal investigation against him for quote armed mutiny.
So that's it.
That's like across the rubicon moment. Because you're a wanted man, you're not going to immerge from this unscathed. So at this point things get even crazier. He starts posting all these voice memos on telegram saying he's on his way to Rostov not to go after him. He claims he's
been attacked, he claims that they had bombed him. Nobody knows if any of this is true, right, But then right in the middle of daylight, we wake up and we can actually see Wagner and progoes in not only are in control at least of some parts of the city, but are even storming or not storming, but like going
into the Russian military headquarters there. They're posting videos they've been verified talking with the people around there quote unquote negotiating, And that means like, at the very least, this is stunningly successful in its own right, just because he's now gained control of a key part of a major logistical hub. Okay, So then what happens, because now we're a pretty crazy event. Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses the Russian nation. He gives
a full six minute address. He denounces Foregrozen, he denounces the mutiny. He calls on everybody to lay down their arms. He compares the rebellion currently to the nineteen seventeen Bolshevik Revolution and says that the Wagner group's efforts are just like that separate piece agreement that Lenin pursued which humiliated Russia.
In World War One.
The most important line from the full scale, basically declaration of war against the Wagoner Group is this quote. Any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It is a strike against our nation, our people. Our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.
Okay. So, like I said, it's about seven am. So here's what we know.
This is all that's really been confirmed so far. There are videos to coming out of Russia every which way. They show a Wagner column of troops and of equipment trying to make its way towards Moscow. Amongst one of the major roads. A decent portion of the way it has made there so far, not the majority like some parts of it.
We don't actually know the progress.
We know that there are videos coming out right now, helicopters can getting shot down or shot at, bombs being dropped on the convoys, total chaos inside of Russia, you know, to be clear, we don't know where this is all going to end up. We don't know if they're going to make it to Russia. People in Moscow are kind of freaking out. There's some security services. The Kremlin says Putin is in the Kremlin and he's working in his office, whatever that means. So look, some analysis just top line,
here's what I think, massive humiliation for Putin. You know, he praised Wagner has recently three weeks ago, he was given out metal cities guys, and now they're mounting a full scale coup against him, and you know they're not listening to him. They're going after his war effort, you know right now, I mean this group is only twenty five thousand people.
They're walting into.
A city of one million, effectively basically undefended, and are the very least advanced couple hundred miles into Russia with no resistance, I mean, with no resistance in that advance. You can say like at the very least the minuscule lack of defense is the Russian troops in that area. They either didn't care or they were sympathetic, and both are a total disaster for command and control of Putin. Now,
what does this mean for Ukraine? That is probably the most interesting question right now, because we could put it in a couple of different ways. Obviously, Zelenski and the army, you know, they put out messages saying they're celebrating, they're in the middle of their own counter offensive. We saw those some strikes against Kiev last night, so it's not like the air wars stopped, and you know, some Russian resistance is still there.
On the front line.
But you know, when you're literal logistics for the wars occupied by someone mounting a coup against you, but that's bad. So there is no question this is going to affect the Russian war effort. We just have no idea how much yet. Right now, the Ukrainians themselves doem to be in a weight and see mood and you know, see what happens. As for Putin, I mean, I don't know how he emerges unscaped from this, and I don't mean that he's going to be deposed, but this is a
humiliation of the highest level on a national scale. I mean, this is an armed mutiny against him, which challenging his legitimacy as the strong man of Russian Like when you need to bomb your own cities and your infrastructure to maintain control, you are not strong. And if he does, even if he does make it out of this, he's
going to make it a lot weaker. And you know that's not necessarily good news either, just so you know, because even if he does survive, there will be a lot of bloodshed, and the military has shown obviously no qualms of killing innocent civilians. A lot of people could die in some sort of arms stand off between the two And at the current moment, it really does seem like either Putin has got to die as a result of this. I don't see how it can get resolved.
This could all turn very ugly. Then the question of what the hell is Putin going to do. Let's say the thing is really successful and they make it to Moscow. What if people start turning on Putin?
What is he going to do?
He has total command and control of the Russian nuclear arsenal of don't forget the Russian nuclear doctrine basically says he's the one who gets to decide whenever they launch and what they do. So that's huge uncertainty. What will Putin do if is back against the wall? Will he escalate the war in Ukraine? You know that wouldn't be completely out outside the Roman possibility. Although logistically obvious, he's going to be a challenge. We don't know what he's
going to do. How is he going to be able to keep power at this point? You know, who will the oligarch's side with should note that most of the power centers inside of Russia have come out in back Putin. Kadirov and Chechnya has come out and issued statements of support. Others have all you know, oligarchs and leaders have all come out and denounced the coup. But you know, you can denounce, but are you really going to work that
hard against it? You know, that's the real question. Are we about to see an open, massive civil war inside of Russia. One of the most stunning images I saw was actually people Wagner guys inside of Rossov, laying on the ground, you know, in the middle of the city,
pointing guns at the Russian military. They had duct tape, you know, around their arms to distinguish themselves, and it's just like a scene out of the nineteen you know, nineteen seventeen to nineteen nineteen rebellion in civil war inside of Russia, of you know, the Whites and the Reds against each other. You have tens of thousands of people died in that conflict. So it's just stunning to be able to see this all in real time. So look, that's pretty much what we know right now.
We can come back.
We'll update everything everyone if anything else really big happens, and encourage everybody to maintain and just pay attention to to really like what is going on, you know, Before I sign off, I'm just making sure that nothing else major significant has happened that we wanted to update everyone.
But I think that's a pretty good background as to the current ku inside of Russia, as to kind of how it started, where the main contours of where things are going, and of what possible endgames and all of that will look like.
So all of us wait and see mode. But no question.
We're absolutely witnessing history right now. It's an absolutely stunning development. And just thank you to all the premium subscribers. They enable our ability to put these kind of snap videos out there and keep everybody updated and informed all of our premiums all across the nation and the world. So Breakingpoints dot com if you're able to help us out, but otherwise, I think I'll sign off for now and I'll continue to keep everybody updated if needed.