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All right, Let's go and move on to this Epstein story, of which there has been notably no commentary in the Republican media, which is previously very interested in any Epstein type story. So Michael Wolfe will call him controversial.
I think the journalist part of the reason why is because it's Michael.
No, it's because it's about Trump and not about a Democrat. But anyway, Michael wolf who wrote Fire and Fury, released a bunch of audio recordings that he had with the late Jeffrey Epstein, specifically talking about his relationship with Donald Trump. Notably, in one he talks about how close friends he was with Donald Trump four ten years, and he also seems to have some inside information about the Trump White House.
After Trump wins in twenty sixteen, which would also indicate, you know, he had not been excised from Trump's circle to the extent that Trump had previously claimed. Let's take a listen to that.
So how do you notice that's closes right?
I think we have a snippet from one of the conversations that I recorded with Epstein, and I think this was in a restaurant in twenty seventeen.
His people fight each other, right, and then outside is he sort of poisons the well? Outside he will tell ten people bands of scumbag and priest is not doing a good job. And Kelly has a big mouth. What do you think? Jamie diamond says a year of proud and I shouldn't keep you, and I spoke to Paul
and call things. I need a new spokespression. So Kelly, even though I hired Kelly as Kelly and is just too much about wild worker and that he tells bat and here, I really want to keep you, but Kelly and hates you.
I have more than dozens. I probably have one hundred hours of Epstein talking about the inner workings of the Trump White House and about his long standing, deep relationship with Donald Trump.
We can put the tear sheet up on the screen here. This is from the Daily Beast that recorded reported on the contents of this audio. They say they did an audio analysis and matched Epstein's voice to you know, previous depositions that he had given. In addition to the comments we played, he also claimed lots of intimate knowledge of Trump's sexual preferences, including liking to cuck other married men, claimed that he had sex with Millennia for the first time on the Lolita Express.
Make of it whatever you will.
I'll just say that, you know, if this was about any Democrat, if it was about Bill Clinton, joh Biden, whoever, you would endlessly hear about it from Republicans. And you know, Jeffrey Epstein, the king of like global elite pedophilia, having a close relationship with Donald Trump, which again some of this is already in the public, and they just completely ignore it.
You know.
It says a lot about their consistency and their principle when it comes to this and literally anything else.
I get.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, obviously, I don't know. It's just one of those like, oh, you're telling me that people who are obsessed with pedophilia on the internet or weird partisan and don't have consistent standards.
Yeah, I mean, I don't know what else to say.
Definitely true in terms of the Fire and Fury author Michael wall The weird thing about Michael.
Wolfe is it had these tapes for like years.
Yeah, because I remembered I think I did a whole mologue about it back in twenty twenty. If I recall also Wolf, I mean, if he didn't have the audio, I.
Straight up just wouldn't believe it.
Basically, if it's not on tape, I don't believe it because wolf made up so much stuff, particularly in his second book, the one that came out after Fire and Fury, which he was paid like millions of dollars for, So you know, it's a certain extent unless you literally have it basically on tape, I don't believe it. In terms of whether Epstein's telling the truth, I mean, you know, in terms of like he lied a lot about a lot of different people.
This is running for cover for Trump. This is basically for all.
The people who are around him, and most of the people who had connections with him are definitely sketchy. In terms of Trump's own comments, the one you can nail him dead to rights?
Was that comedy made in like nineteen ninety two where he's.
Like Jeffrey, he likes him young, where you're like, oh, it's like, well, what knowledge exactly.
Did we have here in terms of the other.
Man again, and we know he was on the plane a bunch of times.
Yeah, he was on the plane. I mean, you know, I'm not running cover Donald Trump or whatever. If you want to call out the pedophilia people online, sure, but you know they have a whole world view well in terms of the pedophilia.
This has been a big.
Narrative on the right sure for years, and it's just very convenient that when you have Jeffrey Epstein on tape being like, yeah, he was my bestie, and you know plenty of documentary evidence that suggest that that was in fact the case. Nothing total signs Well.
They can quan on themselves into I mean, I remember during Q times there was a manage to throwback. But there's this whole theory about how he was actually in with him so he could get inside knowledge to imprison them all. So you know, Christ, you just haven't been exposed enough to the conspiratorial mind. I guess not how they can justify.
It's also funny too, whenever Trump gets asked about Epstein or Gallaine Maxwell or whatever gets very case. I remember when he got asked about Gallaine Maxwell and he was.
Like, I wish it best.
Well, yeah, he got asked again recently.
I think during this campaign, will you release you know, the JFK files and the UFO files and the Epstein files and basically the JFK and the UFO Once he was like, yeah, no problem.
He was like.
Epstein, I don't know, I don't want you know, personal people and their reputations.
Like he was very.
Hedging around the release of the Epstein files, which again would be you know, used as an indictment if it was against any Democrat that's out there. But you know, for Republicans who are just interested in the story if it happens to go against their own political adversaries, not a word. They're busy running with the like you know, the Diddy List now with regards to Democrats, so you know they've shifted their attention also ignoring you know, plenty of photos out there too.
Domald Trump picture.
With one of my great life regrets is I sat next to Alex Acosta on a plane and I did not accost him about the Epstein stuff.
It was late. It was we were coming from Miami. It was like a midnight flight.
But remind people who he was the.
Secretary of Labor under Donald Trump. He was the prosecutor who gave Epstein's sweetheart deal. They cut him loose in Florida and allowed him to go to the Palm Beach County jail and continue to victimize people. But I still am angry at myself for not having the courage to cause a scene on the plane and to stick a camera in his face and be like, why did you do it, mister Acosta.
But you and I was the only person who obviously even knew who he was. The funny thing. But there you go.
Our identity politics over. It's a big question being asked by the New York Times. Thought we would talk about it. I don't know something our audience cares a lot about. Let's put it up there on the screen. From Jeremy Peters in a shift from twenty twenty quote, identity politics loses its grip on the country. He says, the last time Kamala Harris ran for president, people were losing jobs or friends because of something they said or posted online came off as insensitive.
Not sure much has changed.
There, he goes, but a new, unfamiliar, new language around an identity was catching on. Terms like LATINX and bipock. The homeless were now unhoused. There were pregnant people not women. Back then, the progressive movement tried to establish itself as a bulwark to the Trump White House on considerations of race, gender,
and sexual orientation. But now, what he notes is that there has been a reversion to the mean amongst the Harris campaign, amongst a lot of people like Reuben Diego, who has mounted like his own personal crusade against LATINX, which is funny because the data backs him up hundred percent on why there's been such a big shift with that. And then in general what was clearly an electoral backlash
in twenty twenty against BLM and anti racism style rhetoric. Now, I guess the big question inside of this thing is we were just talking before. It's kind of confused in the way that it tries to shoehorn its conclusions, But in general, if you put the stuff he's putting.
Out of Hollywood and all that shit Aside is not wrong about a basic fact.
Racial depolarization has been the story of the twenty twenties, as in, people are not voting more along with their other racial groups as they had before. They are much more likely to vote along educational lines, which break down amongst culture. Now, that's not always a case specifically in the black community. There's still very lot of you know, black people who still vote for the Democratic Party, but it's
not less than ever before. Latinos big splits that have happened there, But the big splits I think, you know, if it's twenty thirty and someone will be like, what are the biggest changes that happen, I'd be like, education and gender gap. Those are like the two things which have nothing to do with race. And I mean I think that's a you know, a nice story.
Uh.
It's a little confused though, because to say identity politic is over, it's like there's actually a lot of gender politics, which is a problem. So anyways, it was an interesting theory I thought we would discuss.
Yeah, there's something there, but also I mean, okay, a few things to say about it. First of all, Matt carp tweeted this morning that the New York Times put the oh bit for progressive identity politics on a one while literally the article next door he describes as committing top tier racecraft, which says the headline for that one is white women ask their own.
To back hair. That is true, identity politics is not totally dead.
Identity politics for whites has actually come back on the left side. I think I credit the white dudes for white straight white dude.
Look at this entire Twitter feed. The dude is like straight white guys for Harris. I'm like, okay, I mean, you know, I don't love this language, but okay.
One of the things that I always get irritated with in this these types of analyzes is I think it misplaces where the identity politics moment, Like I'm talking about the like very hollow representation only identity politics came from. And it really did come from the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Back in twenty sixteen. You had Bernie Sanders running this very class first type of campaign that was about universal values, universal programs, and Hillary Clinton came out and framed him as a racist because he wasn't using this type of language and catering specifically to slicing and dicing every different demographic group in twenty twenty, he actually embraced some of that terminology to try to robut this allegation from Hillary Clinton and her acolytes and the you know, mainstream of
the Democratic Party that he was racist and sexist because he didn't talk about LATINX or you know, use bipoc or use whatever you know, stupid academic language is completely off putting to literally every normal voter out there that he talked in this class first, universalist type of language. So, first of all, I just want to point out that
that's where this moment specifically came from. And second of all, I guess I would say that I do think there's something to the fact that, you know, the sort of like peak of the cancel culture, PC word policing, all that bullshit. I think the peak of that has subsided, but it has also in some ways just been relocated.
Like now there's an attempt on the right and among you know, Zionist Democrats to do just as extensive, if not more aggressive cancelation, shaming, word policing around anyone who would oppose, you know, Israel's genocidal assault on Palestine. So it's sort of just shifted this location in terms of where the cancelation, where all of the like word policing is located. And there's been a huge uptick in terms of policing around ZI in particular.
Yeah, I mean that's Look, they like trotting out.
College students to talk about their microaggressions and how they feel unsafe.
Blah blah blah blaha.
It is very interesting to track the rise of people who rose up literally preaching against identity politics the way that they use them, and there definitely is a Zionist exception I think to all of that. I mean, look, it tracks air interesting theory and actually white women for Harris is the apotheosis of this. There's a whole theory called the Great Awokening, which is that there was a
divergent shift on racial attitude starting in twenty fourteen. We had a nice little debate about it about Tanahasi Coats, who I still blame for his essay is igniting a lot of that that was igniting right around the same time as Michael Brown. Trayvon Martin actually was the original that was like the first time that this became like
a big thing. Ferguson poured gasoline on the fire white women in particular, shifted attitudes on race dramatically divergent from the left, are diverging on the left, even more so away from black voters. And that is exactly the time of the twenty fourteen I think twenty fourteen, late twenty fourteen is when Hillary announces, and that's where it crests in twenty sixteen for her campaign. Then Trump wins the presidency and it goes wild. This is where you get
the ACLU abandoning all their foreign principles. They raise a billion dollars. Then you've you know, everything comes to head at BLM. It gets tested, you know, electorally, some of it has died down, the whole Dei machine and all that has definitely been dealt significant number of blows, and a lot of Democrats have moved past it. But institutionally, I feel think it is there and the whole whit white women for Harris or even this is whole like
who gets most offended over what which. Jeremy Peters tries to tries to get at it in his article.
I wouldn't say we're.
Anywhere like near away from it yet, and so and the fights have also changed, you know now it's a lost about race. Gender is the big one, like I said, right now, and it really got.
A lot of bro identity politics.
Sure, you know, why not?
Actually why shouldn't we To be honest with me, I actually think the.
Trump campaign has been more identity politics than Kamala Harris has because she is very sensitive. First of all, Democrats learned that like just talking in language about specific racial grievances will not to diminish those you know, those racial issues like that was not the key to unlocking massive performance among black voters or massive performance among brown voters. So just from like a cynical political calculation, they realized, like, Okay,
this really isn't it. And number two, I think, as she's very sensitive to the failures of the Hillary Clinton campaign and the fact that she leaned so much into her personal trailblazing identity, that Kamala has really tried to distance herself from that approach and has also really tried to, you know, consistently put out there at the message, sometimes undercut by some of her most prominent surrogates, that she is not taking any voter for granted, regardless of their demographics.
So I actually think, like I said that that Trump has leaned more into the identity politics. We were joking about how some staffer is going through like the list of every every like different racial and ethnic group in America and putting specific message to them, having the you know, the Muslim American endorsers on stage with them and they're like religious guards.
He put out a statement for Indians. He was like, he's like Indian American Hindus, we will stop the violence against Hindus in Bangladesh. I was like, wow, man, this guy's going deep in terms of what the Hindu community, not even the Hindu community I'm talking about, like Hindus in India, what they're all jazzed.
But yeah, the vibe to me of that is like what Democrats were doing in twenty sixty.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean maybe it'll work, right.
So I look, it's one of those where I don't like this type of stuff. I don't even think it matters that much, to be honest with you, I think almost all of it is just comes down to education. Education specifically, attitudes around race, gender, and sex are all baked in as to whether you have a four year college degree or not. I'm talking about on average, that means and manifests very differently in terms of racial politics.
For because the vast majority right of working class photos, you're gonna have a lot more people of color quote unquote you know in that and are going to have very different attitudes on this. And there's women in different ecosism, stuff, their media, their jokes, they like, where they go to eat everything, where go on vacation. Your whole life is totally different, how much money you make, and so that determines almost all of how it plays out for the election.
But yeah, if anything, I think that there has been a new identity politics.
You're not wrong about Zionism. I think the gender politics of.
It of all, especially if the podcast thing plays out, or even if it doesn't. Let's say that the Iowa Seltzer poll is correct and you have this crazy split of women and men. It's like, okay, we're not talking to each other right, Like there's been a full on different ecosystem about how we all understand what's really going on here.
And I would love to see poem. But who do you listen to?
You?
What do you what are you listening to all day?
Like?
What's your media diet?
What are you you know what type of news are you reading, Like what exactly has caused this master divergence from you and your husband?
Like how's that working out?
You know?
In terms of also like what's he doing?
You know, how is he not picking up on this for what's happening inside of his house or you know, it's like what is going on for what that split would look like? And then same with the podcast bro stuff. I mean a lot of that. I've talked about this
in terms of the whole like forgotten mail theory. A lot of this also stems from the twenty fourteen Great Awakening and the whole like gender pay gap freak out, which is totally reversed by the way since twenty fourteen, and that has also left a lot of men very angry online, and that itself would also play out for identity politics if they do come through for Trump and vote for him in a big way, which I hope would cause actually media to say same thing of like
oh my god, like what's going on here?
Are all our prior is wrong?
Regardless of what happens that that is going to have to cost some reassessment.
Yeah, all right, Well, with all of that being said Sager, Okay, let's see your map.
What do you got? My friends?
All right, everybody, it is my time for the prediction of the electoral map. I want to start very at the top and just say this, I have much less confidence in this one that I did the last one. The last one where I correctly called every state in the electoral college. So with the caveats out there, let's put it up there on the screen. So this is going to be a little bit of a contrarian map, and I'm going to walk you through all of my thinking.
So in terms of the swing states, and let's keep it up there so I can just read from it. I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes, literally just one over what he needs to win two hundred and sixty seven there for Kamala Harris. In terms of the swings, I've got Wisconsin and Michigan going blue for Kamala.
I've got Pennsylvania going red. I've got North Carolina glowing blue, and then I've got Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all going red, which gives him exactly two hundred and seventy one electoral votes So let's get to some of my thinking and why.
First.
The Iowa Seltzer poll had a big impact on my thinking, but not necessarily in a Kamala landslide way. It made me check my assumptions in terms of the blue wall. Can we put the next tear sheet up please on
the screen? Here's a key line from Nate Silver and how you should think about the Iowa poll for the rest of the states who Iowa is far better than the other bluewell states in our forty thousand simulations, in cases where Harris won Iowa, her average margin of victory or defeat in Wisconsin was six point seven, in Michigan was five point nine, and in Pennsylvania was three point eight. If the Seltzer pole is right, she'd be heavily favored
in all of them. In other words, but Pennsylvania is the least safe of the trio, in part because about two thirds of its population is what we consider the Northeast, not the Midwest, like Iowa. So the reason why I used the Seltzer pole to push those two states of Michigan in Wisconsin blue was because the Seltzer pole showed what I think will show somewhat movement towards Kamala Harris amongst that critical senior women demographic and amongst women who
are worried about abortion. But because Pennsylvania is so distinct in its population, it's got more people of color and other places in the northeastern population that have different concerns and are culturally pretty distinct from those other two states. I thought that was enough considering where things lie right now. Let's go to the next element, police, and this will
explain a little bit more. The other thing is that in Nate Cone in the New York Times Siena poll analysis, they talked specifically about non response polling bias, as in Democratic response rates ticked up in their survey, White Democratic responses outpaced Republicans by some fifteen percent. That was more
than twenty twenty. So what that means is that the response rate amongst Democrats, and this was a whole theory in twenty twenty as to why the polls were wrong for the Democrats in their direction was because of polling response biased and there was overperformance amongst Ems. So if Nate Cone is flagging that in a poll of Pennsylvania which they have tied again, tiede that they have a
non response bias there for Democrats. I think that underestimates Donald Trump's strength and that means he could win that state.
Now we'll continue in the map.
Let's put the next one, please up on the screen that shows you exactly what I was talking about, where they have. If you factor in a non response bias, you have basically Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. I'm giving Harris Michigan just be because of that Iowa poll. But in Pennsylvania, I think with a distinct enough population, Trump can pull it out, either thin or frankly, it could even win a little bit bigger than the rest.
And if we continue down, let's go to the next element, please, what we'll find is Arizona has had a pretty significant response in terms of early ballot returns for Republicans, significantly more than they had last time around. From everything I have seen, both in terms of the polling and in terms of the early vote, there has been enough of a Republican surge that I feel pretty confident calling Arizona
for Donald Trump. Another reason is that there was recently a migration analysis that showed that a lot of the inflow that's coming into Arizona are Republican Californians who are fed up with governance from there, and the state has become a little bit more red from last time around. If I'm wrong here, the main reason will be because of the Arizona abortion ballot referendum, and that will be one that was just simply not caught at all.
So let me get that caveat for right there. Let's move to the next one. Please.
This also shows another some of my calls is that is racking with his rally is going every single day in North Carolina. Now, the reason why that I'm paying attention to this and where the candidates are spending their time, is that spending all this time in North Carolina, a state that you won twice, is not good and it tells us that that's time that you should be spending. Theoretically in the blue wall that they are seeing internally
that they have a problem. I think that problem is called Mark Robinson, and he is a major reason why I think Kamala is going to win. Let's go to the next one. Next slide, please for the real clear politics. If you take a look at this, even New York Times Sienna. All the quote unquote garbage Republican polls. Every single poll out of the state of North Carolina and their gubernatorial race has Mark Robinson down by a minimum of nine The average the spread is Mark Robinson down
by fourteen point three points. Some of them have Mark Robinson losing by twenty points. So the reason that I think Kamala's going to win in North Carolina is I just simply don't believe in an electorate that has some between nineteen to ten points split tickets swing that is going to vote for the gubernatorial candidate as a Democrat
and then split their ticket for Donald Trump. I think Trump had a good chance of winning North Carolina, and I think Mark Robinson absolutely sunk it for him the amount of time that he's spending there in the state. I think that's what it is. Let's go to the next part and I can continue here. This is from John Rawlston from his early voting blog.
This one. I'm a little bit less confident about.
I'll be honest, but there has been significant overperformance for Republicans in Clark County, sorry in Nevada. Unless there's some major movement in Clark County in Nevada, which does not see huge Democratic performance on election day tomorrow. Specifically, John Rawlston and other watchers of Nevada are pretty confident that
there's a major GOP upset happening there. The only way that I'm wrong here is again because of abortion, and also because of the independent vote specifically, which is categorized as other disportionately skews younger. And if that all goes disportionately Democrat, then the Republicans are going to have a problem.
But right now they're up by I think it's like forty thousand votes or so in terms of the last time that I looked at it, and people in Nevada, Republicans and others pretty confident that they're going to win that state. It would make sense to in terms of the Latino realignment and others. So that's Do I have any other other elements? Let's see here one more. Let's put that last one up there on freestyling. This is George, That's right, I forgot. So this is from my friend Edisante.
He says, quote, I honestly don't see how you can get to Harris plus two in Georgia based on the early vote. It feels mathematically impossible currently at fifty five percent turnout of registered voters. It was sixty six percent turnout in twenty twenty, and it was sixty percent turnout in two thousand and sixteen.
So because you.
Have lower turnout and you've seen blowout turnout for the rural counties for Donald Trump, you have Republicans there that are pretty confident. Biden only won it by some ten thousand votes or so last time around, which was a major upset. Even with the demographic turn you see major Republican enthusiasm. You don't have the same beef that they had last time with Brian Kemp. Kemp is out there stumping for Donald Trump. They seem relatively confident of victory,
and the math looks like it could be correct. The only way again I'm wrong here is if you see major white female overperformance, just like you said in Iowa abortion style upset, and if you see black turnout that skyrockets on election day. So I have lower confidence in this map, But in the scenario Donald Trump wins, it'll be narrow two seventy one to sixty seven.
But that's what I've got, crystal.
Very interesting, I mean, and if you want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue become a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot Com.
Well, that's probably a good Bristol. What do you got good place to queue up mine?
Let's go and put my map up on the screen. Minus a little simpler to explain, because I do have the Kamala landslide scenario, and by landslide, I mean that she wins some level of victory in all seven of the swing states. I'm not giving her Iowa, no, Ann Selzer says, but potentially that is in play because I'm
just not that bold. But my meta narrative you know, of the world that would lead to this map is effectively that the combination of January sixth, and in particular, the overturning of Roe versus Wade, has represented a political earthquake in American politics that pollsters have consistently failed to capture this newly shifted electorate and have openly rigged their results.
I mean, they admit to this to effectively closely match the outcome of twenty twenty, just out of terror that they will once again underestimate Donald Trump, and in doing so they have fundamentally missed a significant shift among women. On top of that, Kamala Harris is a fairly ideal candidate to champion this new pro choice, anti chaos majority. She has built her campaign around appealing to this heavily
female coalition. And Donald Trump, on the other side, has leaned into some of his most toxic traits here down the home stretch and is in some ways an ideal foil to motivate this coalition, especially since he is the individual who is responsible for putting the justices on the court to overturn Roe versus wad Okay. So now let me give you the data that backs up this theory of the world that would result in this map where every battleground state ultimately goes to Kamala Harris could put
this first up on the screen. So this is all under the category of pollsters are missing the post Row electorate. So even before the Sealser poll, you had when Biden was still the top of the ticket, Democrats in almost every instance outperforming their polls during special elections. So not only that, you also had, if we could put the next one up on the screen, polls consistently overestimating Trump.
Actually after Roe versus Wade and after January sixth, so when he was running in the Republican primary, surveys overestimated Trump's actual vote share in eight of the ten states where there was enough polling for five point thirty eight two produce in average. What's more, if we put the next one up on the screen, Nicki Haley his most significant adversary. Even after she dropped out of the race, she continued to rack up significant vote totals, and in
particular in some of those key suburban counties. So this is from a Politico article they write in late April, staffers at Joe Biden's headquarters fixated on votes for Nikki Haley rolling in during the Pennsylvania primary, as she pulled twenty to twenty five percent support in the largely upscale, suburban Coller counties around Philadelphia. Most remarkable, Haley had dropped out more than six weeks earlier, and this was not
the only time when this occurred. She continued to perform and rack up significant vote totals in states like Florida. I think she got seventeen percent of the vote even though she'd been out of the race for some significant amount of time. And again those votes came largely from women in suburban counties. In addition, Trump has done basically nothing to reach out to those voters who are at least disaffected with him enough to give their vote to
his primary opponent, even after she had exited the race. Now, Nikki Hilly herself has endorsed Trump, but he hasn't used her on the campaign trail. He has done very little to attempt to reach out to disaffected suburban women who may have been part of his coalition and may have voted for him in the past, leaving them open to what has been, you know, an overwhelming effort. This has been a key focus from the Kamala Harris campaign to try to persuade some percentage of those voters and try
to pull them into the Kamala Harris coalition. The next piece of evidence here that the pollsters are missing a new post Row electorate is the Anne Selzer poll. I mean, this has to be the most key piece of data. She finds in a shocking upset Kamala Harris beating Trump among likely Iowa voters forty seven to forty four. If you dig into these numbers, put the next one up on the screen. She finds independent women going to Kamala Harris by twenty eight points. She finds senior women going
to Kamala Harris by thirty five points. Now, on the one hand, you can say Selzer may be missing a lot of what's going on.
Clearly, this is a.
Very different portrait than you're seeing from effectively any other polster. Of all, tell you some other ones that somewhat line up with her in the same region. Unlike other posters, she does a lot less waiting, meaning she does a lot less going in and applying her own judgment about I think the electorate's going to be this, I think
the electorate is going to be that. Instead, she calls up registered voters and talks to them and asks them how likely they are to vote, and of course who they're going to vote for.
And so there's a lot less of her.
Own judgment and her own terror overestimating or underestimating this candidate or that candidate.
It's more directly what the voters say.
Now that comes with huge risks because in the past, of course, there has been a non response bias in terms of Trump's supporters, and that could be playing into the results that she is seeing here if they end
up being wildly off. But my bet, based on the fact that an Selzer has a better track record that basically literally any other Polster in the state of Iore or anywhere else, my bet is that she is directionally correct, that she is picking up on this post Row shift that other Polsters, out of terror and out of the fact that they are basically pegging their results to match the twenty twenty election because they don't want to be on over their skis and they don't want to get
it too wrong, have completely missed. I mean, for me, logically, it makes sense that if you are just trying to peg the results to twenty twenty, you are going to be missing something because the world is so different from how it was in twenty twenty. So I mentioned before, we had January sixth, we're out of COVID, we had Row being overturned, we had some of the population significant
population shifts that Sagre talked about across the country. And so if you are just trying to clude your result to match the way things were back in twenty twenty, it is undeniable to me that you're going to be missing some significant shifts. And to me, Anne Sellzer gives a window into what some of those shifts may have been. This is backed up by some other data. We could put the next piece up on the screen. Gear from Politico.
You know, the issue she finds with seniors. Sorry, we should have a Politico terachute, but issues she finds with seniors also appears to be showing up in other early voting data where Republicans are really worried that seniors are not turning.
Up for them.
And if we leave this one up on the screen, we also find that there are some other polls that look a little bit like what the Ann Sellzer poll looks like. So a Kansas poster that has a good reputation just last week found Trump up only by five in the state of Kansas. Now that would be an earthquake, only five in the state of Kansas. We've seen multiple polls of that Nebraska second congressional district, which is a swing district meaning it should be close, that has found Kamin Harris.
With a double digit lead.
That would represent a significant improvement over Biden's performance there. I believe Biden won that congressional district by somewhere around five points. We also saw a poll of Ohio that had Trump up by only three points. Again, that would be a significant shift away from Trump visa VI twenty twenty. So this person opines, and I think this is true. Taken together, Iowa looks like less of an outlier and
more like something real is happening here. So when you piece it together with all these poles and the saleser pole, which has so much credibility in such a track record behind it, I have to feel like the polsters are missing something that is truly happening with women here. In addition, we've seen a number of poles. I'll just highlight the New York Times one here, Guys, put this up on
the screen. So the New York Times Sienna Pole, for example, found that Kamala Harris was winning these late breaking voters by margin of fifty eight to forty two. That's not the only poll that has found similar results where those who were deciding late in the game are going for Kamala Harris's kind of the reverse of what we found in twenty sixteen, when after Comy and all of that happened, the late breakers significantly broke for Donald Trump and end
up handing him victory. We also found that early voters have been going for Kamala and this is noteworthy as well as go and put this up on the screen in terms of the numbers with early voters. So recent national ABC News IPSOS, New York Times, Santa College and CNN polls show Harris with an advantage of nineteen to twenty nine points among voters who say they've already cast ballots. Those margins range from a fifty nine to forty edge in the Times Ciena pulled to a sixty two to
thirty three edge in the ABC IPSOS one. This cuts against the grain of some of the early vote analysis that you've seen on the Republican side, where they look at the partisan breakdown and they say, okay, well, Republicans are holding up pretty well in the early vote, and in some places even have a lead in the early vote.
What this could reflect is the fact that.
The Harris campaign may be eating into a few percentage points of the Republican electorate, where some of those Republicans who are turning up are actually voting for Kamala Harris, but more significantly, that they are winning a significant number of the independent votes who are not registered with any particular political party. This in particular is important in the state of Nevada, where Republicans have felt the best about
their early vote. And understandably so you've got John Rawlston out they're crunching the numbers, saying, hey, Republicans are.
Doing something really different here.
But if you look at this time Siena polling, they find okay, yeah, among those people in Nevada who have already voted, yes, the Republicans have a two point edge by party registration. However, they still found even among that two points edge Republican party registration electorate, they still found Kamala Harris up by five points because she has a
wide lead among unaffiliated voters who cast early ballots. So the New York Times Siena backing up here some of the analysis of what could be going on underneath the surface of even in that Nevada early vote, which, as I said before, is the area where Republicans have had the best numbers and have felt the best about their
early vote game. Finally, and this may end up being one of the key things that we look back on as we know, if my map comes to fruition, this may be one of the key early indicators that we look at in addition to the sales or poll.
Put this up on the screen.
There's a massive gender gap in terms of the early vote. You've got seventeen point two million people who've voted early in the seven swing states. You have one point six million more men who have voted women who have voted than men. The gender turnout gap is plus thirteen for women in Pennsylvania, plus twelve in Georgia, plus eleven in North Carolina, plus ten in Michigan, plus eight in Wisconsin, plus five in Arizona. And the best result for Republicans
is in Nevada, where it is only plus one. The whole Republican theory of the case is that the bros Are going to turn out. They have really bet the farm on the group of voters that, frankly, are the least likely to turn out, which is young men. And these early vote numbers with this large of a gender gap, indicate that it is not the men that are turning out for this election, that are excited to vote in
this election, It is women. And you know, the one thing that has really been consistent throughout this election, no matter what you look at, is the massive gender gap with women disproportionately going to Kamala Harris and men disproportionally going to Donald Trump. So when you look at which gender is showing up at this point, I think that has to be a positive indicator for Kamala Harris. And so, you know, obviously, if I'm right, Saga very clear what
happened to her polsters missed the post role electorate. If I'm wrong, I also think the reason is pretty simple, which is just Biden's really unpopular.
The economy is, people aren't happy with the economy. Right track, wrong track is a disaster.
Kamala Harris, you know, really obsessed over winning these Nikki Hayley voters who potentially were you know, a fantasy and you know, didn't show up, didn't end up moving towards her whatsoever. They were locked in for Donald Trump. They're just partisans at this point. And that's that.
And you know, I think that is also a very possible scenario.
And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com.
All right, so tomorrow we're going to have a morning show.
Guys, We're gonna be morning show is going to drop for everybody in the morning, and then we will also be live six thirty pm Eastern time here on the channel.
All four of us will be here at the desk.
We've got logan, we've got the software, and we will start making calls. We'll have live calls and all that. We'll have maps, graphics, et cetera. Everything is totally ready to go and we will be with you all week as long as we need to until this damn thing is over.
So there you go.
Buggle up.
It's gonna be into one way or another. Whatever happens gonna be vary.
It can't wait, can't wait to cover it. I love it. I love learning little things. There's always surprises.
The Latino surprise is one of my favorite moments from twenty twenty, just because I love the fact that you cannot take anything for granted in this country. Iowa blue state, red state now possibly up for grabs. Florida in my lifetime went from swing state to red state.
Ohio went from blue to red.
I mean, there's been so many of these where people are you know, you can't take people for granted. They shift all the time, that people move different state. North Carolina's up for grabs today. You told me that ten years agog. What the hell are you talking about. You know, it's like in this country people change their mind all the time, and I think that's a great, great thing. So we can all witness that in real time together, and we'll see you all tomorrow.