Tariffs, Retail Sales, and Inflation

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Edward, your Denny needs no introduction.

He is clearly one of the most philosophical and acute bulls out there. He speaks of the Roaring twenties and has been dead and we're thrilled to doctor Yodnny could join us for an extended conversation this morning. John Murphy, the giant of technical analysis, and a guy named Ed Hymen all agree like you that you have to meld things together. Talk to our audience that has missed the Yard Denny bullmarket of how you use economics to have the confidence to invest.

Well, I think, first and foremost, you have to start with the data. I think a lot of economists and strategists sometimes start out with the conclusion of how they think things would fold, and then look for the data that will support it, especially the economists who tend to be on the pessimistic side about the US economy.

I think the important thing is to be observant.

And I've observed over the past three years that we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that never happened.

It was a no show.

And I think even now people aren't. It's kind of like Rodney Dangerfield. They're not giving the economy enough respect.

It's amazingly resientied.

And that's what percentage of the audience doesn't know who Rodney danger Fields, Right, you're taking himself un He was in Caddyshack. Believe it that Jar Denny, the economist James Kimmel, Jimmy Kimmel was going after Lawrence Cuddle over at Fox Biz last night. You and I i'mber Larry Cuddler at Paarsterns years ago, emphasizing the nominal statistic. Tell us what you glean right now from nominal GDP the idea of our real growth plus a very volatile inflation overlay.

Well, I think right now, you know, like when you go over to Grandma's house and it's a long drive and the kids are in the back asking are we there yet?

I think we're there.

In terms of the so called nirvana norm for the economy, the dual mandate has been accomplished. We've got the unemployment rate at four percent, we've got real GDP rising up around three percent, and we got the inflation rate not quite a two percent, but somewhere around two and a half to three percent. And so the Fed has accomplished what it wants to do, which leads me to conclude that there's really no reason for the Fed to lower

So, ed, we did get that a little bit hotter than expected CPI inflation data a couple of days ago. Did that alter your view of maybe how this FED should proceed?

Yeah?

Well, you know, the way sometimes the way I look at these numbers is when they support my story, they're good. When they don't support my story, they're bad, or they're going to be revised. And I don't know that the CPI is going to be revised. But I think there are some funky things that happen at the beginning of the year. A lot of companies raise their prices. I know the data seasonally adjusted, but I'm not troubled by

So what what's your view just in terms of taking risk here, ed we think about stocks, bonds, alternatives, Where do you see opportunities here given that economic backdrop, given that fedback drop.

Well, you know, we've been bullish on the stock market since October of twenty twenty two, and there are a lot of opportunities back then, and now things are obviously much more expensive. I think from here on, I think maybe it's more like I hope that the rally in stocks continues based on earnings rather than valuation. If it keeps going up on valuation, we're faced with sort of like a nineteen nineties model of the stock market melting up and then melting down.

But you know, that could just be a buying opportunity.

It doesn't have to be a long term bear market, and I don't think it would be.

Off the yard any over twenty two and good morning to the great technician Ralphia and Campora, Ralpha and Kompora who said the same thing. Up twenty one percent annualized since the your Denny call of October of two thousand and twenty two.

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Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast, growing each and every day, learning as much as I can about this digital madness. Good morning to all of you outside America on YouTube. Just humbled by the international reach A special good morning today to ninety two nine FM Paul.

I got to do this right now.

It is the tweet of the day, fred Lynn Red Sox saying that Bregman of the Houston Astros coming to the Red Sox reminds him of Rico Petrocelli.

That's almost as important as the next question to Ed yard.

Denning exactly so, Ed, we think about this equity market, and I guess that the FED is going to be more or less on the sidelines, maybe give us one or two cuts. Earnings have to be front and center. Yes, what's your view of this? Earning power of this market right here.

I think the power is there.

For the past three years, because we didn't think there would be an economy wide recession, we were among the highest forecasters for earnings, and indeed for this year, I think we're at the top with two hundred and eighty five dollars a share for the S and P five hundred, and then next year three hundred and twenty dollars a share, and then by twenty twenty nine four hundred dollars a year.

And if we get a boom like that, and you're pretty lonely on that, I mean, the character of going out to twenty twenty seven, eight and nine is a lonely stance right now.

A lot of people's long term is one year.

And if we get this ed Yard Denny, do business practices get sloppy. I had a wonderful talk once with Robert crandall the giant of American airlines. Do people get goofy and misspend capex et cetera, et cetera as we go up the yard Denny Bull Market, Well, that's the beauty of American capitalism, right.

There's a tremendous amount of money available for venture capital for startups, and it's kind of like throwing spaghetti on the wall. And I think a lot of these venture funds that's exactly what they do. They invest in a lot of these startups. They provide the capital they need to come up with their innovations, and some succeed, some fail. We always hear about the ones that succeed. We never hear about the ones that fail. But that's the nature of.

You know, the the that's the nature of capitalism.

Can tariffs, reciprocal tariffs trump economics can derail the Ardny Bull market?

Well, you know a lot of people think so. But I'm very happy that they're using the word reciprocal rather than retaliatory. Retaliatory is what the Smooth Holly tariff was. In June of nineteen thirty, we raised our tariffs without any concerns about the impact in other countries and other

Done, and it could be pretty quick.

I mean, you see how more leaders are coming to the White House to say, let's talk about these things before you slap them on.

Yeah, let's switch gears a little bit to the fixed income space here. Where do you see opportunities? I mean, you know a lot of folks that can be pretty happy with a two year treasury at four point three percent. Is that kind of where they should be or should they take some credit risk?

How do you think that fixed.

That's yeah, that's our view is that the ten years should be four and a half percent plus minus twenty five basis points.

As you mentioned.

Before, that's normal and it's normal, and since it's where bond yields were before the Great Financial Crisis, before the Central Bank started to rig manipulate the bond yield and bring it close to zero, I think it's great that the US economy is demonstrated that it can live with these interest rates because they're fair. They're fair to investors who don't want to take a lot of risk and want to have something that's safe but getting a decent return.

Edgiar Denny.

Next week, folks, and this is anticipated around Robert Shiftman's schedule, we are going to have Robert Schiffman of Bloomberg Intelligence in for an extended conversation on the lack of debt of the mag seven I.

Mean, Edgiar Denny. You know, forget about Madigliani and the rest.

The bottom line here is there is ample room to use debt for whatever cap.

X or to diminish equity.

I mean, we can issue a lot of debt out there in this American juggernaut economy, can't we.

Well, the US government certainly has done that, and everybody, including the bomb vigilantis, are hoping that the Doge boys are successful.

Do I detect a new phrase from thernetty continue, Well, it's it's the shootout in Doge City, right, So I can play with this one for a while.

But yeah, I think where there is a capacity to borrow more but there's no need to borrow more is in the household sector. In the business sector, it's the government that's on the wrong course. And if the government kind of gets rained in, that crowds out less private sector and investments. But look at the Magnificent seven. They

And this is a great way to start a Friday here into a weekend of a bull market. Edwards, your Denny of your Denny research. I can't say enough about it. We protect the copyright of all. I guess get is wonderful readable research at Yard Denny. I can't say enough about the value of that.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US live on YouTube.

Jay Hatfield with US right now with the Infrastructure Capital Management, will go to Lisa for the retail report and then talk retail sales the state of the economy with mister Hatfield.

I gotta go Jay to what you're looking at now.

It's something Paul's alluded to because he keeps watching for West Texas Intermediate with a sixty nine print. We're not there yet, but nobody's modeling out not to be dramatic a collapse in hydrocarbons, but just the bid falls away. When and how does that happen?

Well, I guess one point where we have superior data is that the notion that Trump is going to be able to get the US producer to produce dramatically more is probably incorrect. They continue to be focused on capital return, return on invested CAPITALI saw Chevron laying people off.

More than that CUGE. We're just doing a huge.

Reason, right, So it wasn't really surprisingly partly because they're just ineffective managers. Wasn't really constraining that Biden wasn't really constraining US production. Is constraining US exports of natural gas, but not oil. And we gather water in the Permian and our indication is not like they're not going to produce more. They're just going to follow their normal paths. So that's not really a good bear case for oil.

All right, I don't want to stay on that topic. You have in your notes here which is very clear inflation is always caused by excessive money supply growth as occurred during the pandemic, and never by tariffs and deportation. Talk to us about that, because I think a lot of the concern about tariffs and about deportations is that they will effect be inflation.

Well, the first thing that it's strange that nobody's really pointed out is it's almost like we had the perfect experiment to prove monetary theory. Seventy five percent increase in the money spy, which netted down to sixty thirty eight percent nominal GDP twenty two percent inflation. So it worked perfectly. So the excess monetary growth translated inflation basically got Biden fired. So thank you, Chair Powell. But that worked perfectly. But

Is Chair Paul going to get Trump fired? Yeh possibly? Yes? How what will be that problem?

We have ultra tight monetary policy right now. The thing to look at is monetary supply. Money supplied growth. It's negative three so that implies deflation. In fact, we'll see about retail sales is a lagging indicator. But we think the economy is slowing.

This morning with a blistering note on tightening off the Fed balance sheet as well.

Right, so the key dynamics everybody debates is monetary policy tight. When you're shrinking that I supply three percent, that's extremely tight.

Okay, let's do this, Cha Hatfield with us. We're going to come back. He's with infrastructure at Capital Management. We're going to stagger to retail sales report out of Friday with Valentine, one hundred and fourteen percent are work from home today future is a negative seven to features in negative one oh five. The vics fifteen point two three. Don't really know what to make of it all other than here we are with the yields where they are

So let's look at that.

And this is for January month over month retail sales.

The survey was for.

A decrease of two tens of percent. Came in a decrease of nine tenths of a percent. So you see the difference there. When you take autos and gas out of the picture, it goes down to about down a half a percent. And then we want to hit import prices because we've been talking about that so much with tariffs. The expectation was for an increase of four tens percent increase about three tenths of a percent. Now let's see the reaction on Wall Street, a little bit of a dip.

Tom, Lisa, thanks so much.

Shield's come in, as Lisa mentioned, and the ten year really yield two point zero five percent is in a little bit nowhere near the ninety nine level. That's really my demarcation, but to four digits two point zero four seven zero and a ten year real yield dollars showing further weakness and dx y one O eight one oh seven now one oh six point seventy four, So sort of quiescent field.

There, although the revisions went up. So it's sort of a soup to say.

The least our economic indicators and all that Lisa Matteo does on economics, it's brought to you by Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer focuses the power of their thinking on you, creating customized plans to help achieve their goals. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking into you're investing, wealth management, capital markets, investment banking.

Paul so Jay looking at the retail sales again, weaker than expected. Here, talk to us about your.

View of the FED here.

I mean there's a concern that the FED is chronically behind the curve because they look at historical data helping of a problem is is that for you?

That's an enormous problem the FED, Well, they really have three problems, but that's the biggest.

Okay, so as.

You know, because I was I believe leading to charge on this, but you and okay, so in early twenty one, because we of course do look at oil that matters, and we look at other indicators of housing costs like housing prices, but now we use just market rents. Because there's this thing called the Internet and you can see it. Maybe the BLS should start using that. But so the FED seems to know this, but then they're so slavishly focused on this two percent like it's some it came

When you were at you Kill Davis, did they teach the biblical fed they was said about tablets.

Well, they actually did.

And I think that's the big advantage because it was forty five short years ago, and monitorism used to be more popular now Keynesianism. You know, it's obviously most universities are liberal and if you're knsy and it's wonderful because all government spending is great. So I don't even hear any monitorisms.

So what my monitorism is out of vogue? What is the part of monitorism that our listeners and viewers should pay attention to.

Well, I've looked at the monetary base every week. That's a M. I learned that from you. Actually, I used to think it's better to call M zero or MO, so it comes out every weeks. That's an advantage over one M one. And if you just follow that indicator, you'll never miss a big cycle except the pandemic. Things like the pandemic. So in other words, you know, we were on saying, well it might spy went up seventy five percent. Do we need to be geniuses that that

We could be weak.

Well, this is really weak negative point eight, and nobody cares about. The last GDP print was only two point three.

We're going to get you.

On before the next FED made in to talk about this. It's a thing from a different time and place.

As well.

On Monitorism, Jay Hatfield is with infrastructure and we thank him for the infracap as well.

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Now, let me explain why this is important.

Lindsay Pigson was my Economist of the Year last year. There's other people that have got it right. Forget about disinflation. There's going to be a sticky inflation. L Aeran out front of this. Jim Bianco was out front of this, but no one wrote week after week after week intelligently about this, like doctor Pigs and she dark as the door of the studio.

Today she is with STIFA Financial.

Lindsey again, congratulations because the data that we saw this week clearly alludes.

To your tone.

And I got Richard Clarita in the ft saying disinflation tendency is placed Edward Yardenny into seven o'clock hours, Is a disinflationary tendency is in place? Is it's a disinflationary tendency in place?

Well, the data doesn't seem to suggest that. The data suggests that we did have strong disinflation, but as of last year, that trend now remains increasingly uncertain, with many of these key metrics moving to the sideways, and more recently we've seen an acceleration right with the PPI the CPI accelerating for the past three four months, some of these underlying key metrics more than double the FEDS intended target.

Yeah, I saw audit insurance up eleven percent. You're in the wheelhouse of this. In the Midwest, there's a cottage industry Dallas, Chicago, Cleveland of taking the seventy eight things or whatever that make up inflation.

I want to pick up this, I want to pick up that. I want to pick up this other thing as well.

Our Paul and my viewers and listeners hate that because they're paying the bills.

Correct.

What are people feeling away from the contrived CPIS series, Well, if we.

Look at this morning's retail sales numbers, we know exactly how consumers are feeling. Even if we parse out some of the weather effects or some of the effects from the fires that we saw in the recent times, what we're seeing is consumers responding to the ongoing burden of elevated prices, and that's forcing somewhat of a pullback in expenditures. Now, again,

So if I'm of the Federal Reserve, do I stick with A I mean, you could argue this data suggest that maybe they should in fact be thinking about cutting rates, and maybe that whole discussion of maybe lifting rates that's completely off the table. How do you think the FED is going to interpret this retail SALESPAP.

I think the Fed is looking at the data coupled with the hotter than expected reads on CPI and PPI saying we need to be firmly positioned on the sideline to allow the data to further evolve. Give us time to assess the data and assess the impact of the incoming fiscal policies that are coming down the pipeline. So the FED wants to take its time, be patient, and as Chair Paul has said, they are in no rush to move policy at this point. Remember they've already made

And I'll let you pick six months, twelve months, whatever your duration is real GDP a nominal GDP and does that allow central Banker to the world, Donald Trump to get his low rate regime.

I mean, where are you on real and nominal No.

I think it's going to be very difficult for the administration to see a realized reduction in rates as they would like to see. Now that that's nothing against the current.

Ministers buoyant, solid real GDP.

I think real GDP is sub one percent for the next twelve to eighteen months. I think that's going to be very difficult to get above when we look at these still elevated inflation levels and we see this loss of momentum, a clear loss of momentum under I've never.

Said this, Paul, nominal under four.

Percent, nominal under four you're killing me. It's not necessarily a rosy outlook, but I think it's a realistic outlook that we have to contend with.

Can the Red Sox win this year? Can they take the pennant?

I wouldn't be able to speak intelligently about that.

You weren't talking sub forenomenal.

I think it's a realistic one, Tom. That's why I'm so concerned about stagflation. This FED is so concerned about avoiding negative growth that they're willing to tolerate above target inflation for a prolonged period of time, eventually choking offside potential extreme plate.

I mean, we're just nobody's listening today. It's Valentine's Day. You work clubs blue, Thank you, Lindsey. If you get that scenario, what does that do to non farm payrolls the unemployment rate.

Well, we've already seen non farm payrolls lose momentum over the past couple of years. We're talking about an average pace of one sixty six since the start of last year. So if we continue to see this erosion in the upside potential of the economy, I think we get closer to one twenty one thirty on a monthly basis. That drives the unemployment rate up into that range of full employment as the FED has been looking at for quite some time, and that gives them somewhat of a more

Yeah, I don't agree, Vice Chairman Trump, Paul's going to go mental. That's what's going to happen.

Well, are you concerned about these inflation risks that may or may not come from tariffs and from changing immigration policy. We had a guest on earlier Tennis say, that's not the problem. The problems always is money supply. Don't worry about the tariff and things like that.

Do you worry about the ten I'm concerned about the already ingrained level of inflation in the economy. That's my primary concern. The implementation or the use of tariffs to negotiate better trade deals, to negotiate cooperation and international conflicts, or to cooperate in terms of more stringent immigration rules. That's where I think the administration is ultimately headed. So I think the most dire scenario of forty sixty percent

So what you're not doing a fixed income ballet? But what's your fixed income regime?

Here?

Do you see a ten year real yield peaking out two point two zero comes down to one ninety nine right now two oh three? Are you looking for the real yielded you completely break down to like a one seventy.

Not entirely, because remember the things that are going to keep the longer end of the curve elevated. Is this wake up call that investors have been having for exactly about thirty four trillion dollars in debt, a deficit pushing up to seven percent, double the historic normal. So I do think that investors they have pushed that to the wayside, and they pushed it to the wayside last year amid

So when we see in retail sales data points like today that are significantly weaker than expected, does that call?

Is that a one off fires? Winter weather?

Which I hate using the weather, but a lot of people do, including every retail analyst out there. Is that a one off or is that something that we should really be concerned about?

Do you think well, I think we can explain away a lot of the weakness because of the weather, because of the fires. But I think it's also reflective of this underlying pressure as we talked about, because of this rising and elevated rate environment, cost environment for consumers. I think it's also a reflection of consumers uncertainty about what is coming down the pipeline. And we saw that reflective and consumer confidence taking a sizable dip at the start

Forget about the pigs of theater of a sub one percent real GDP.

Let's go halfway there.

We get to one point seven percent real GDP for some quarter. It's out there somewhere. When do they cut rates? That's got to be almost not a force measure, but it's almost a right now, I would say, in the framework of people, almost a crisis. Well to get a one seven statistics.

But It's important to understand the motivation behind the rate cuts because I think at this point when we look at the FEDS motivation. Early on, it was to counteract the fear of emerging weakness in the labor market which failed to materialize, as well as a desire to pass through as much relief as possible before the uncertainty of

So what are we going to do with a one point seven percent real GDP and the mortgage rates seven percent down?

Tell me what the housing market does.

Yeah, that's going to be a challenge right there. Lindsay, talk to us about inflation and when the consumers, When do we stop complaining about inflation? When do we say, my pressure of coin flakes down, but my presce of cornflakes is twenty five percent higher than it was before the pandemic, but it's been there for three four years now, When do I stop saying complaining about that jump in my precious cornflakes and say, oh, it's only up two percent year?

Every year.

Well, I think we actually did see that over the past couple of years, this expectation of consistent monthly increases of point two point three, even point four to your point. But I do think at this turn of the of the road, consumers have reached a precipice where they're going to be increasingly unable to continue to foot that consistent price increase. And that's where it's starting to weigh now

This is really profound. I mean, this is really really a good conversation, folks. To summarize, Lindsay Piggs is looking for real GDP really to come, inflation to be a little slower stagflation in order. Good morning, Professor Summers. If we start with any central bank as ex post and you've nailed this. How ex post is your own Powell, particularly given White House pressures.

Well, remember, I'm looking for a rate cut call. Can I get one? It's Valentine's Day? Can we again?

Right now?

The Fed still is desperately trying to provide additional relief, but they're only going to be able to do that if they see inflation arrest this upward trend. They don't even need to see inflation resume the disinflationary trend. They just need to be convinced that we're going to continue to move sideways with no further upward pressure. And or we see sizeable indications of emerging weakness in the labor market. But we need one or both of those scenarios in

Likely?

No one, at most two. But again that is further justified as policy remains in firm territory and we want to get back towards neutral.

All right, Lindsay, it's pictures and catchers, baseball seasons back. Can I ask you a Chicago question. You're Chicago native, absolutely Cubs, white Sox. What determines whether you're a Cubs fan or White Sox. And it's as simply geography.

It is geography. It's proximity. Yes, it's where you live. If you're on the north side versus the south side, and so how.

Does that work out for us? Your north side you're a wet fan.

If you're on the north side, you're you're typically a Cubs fan. On the south side you typically root for the White Sox.

Really, it's not like handed down like here's Yankees. I think it's kind of who your parents are.

And how there may be some of that over the generation card line is typically designated towards say, I.

Don't have a great feel for Chicago. I love Chicago. I don't have a good feel for what drives kind of those things. So I'm glad you cleared that for.

Us, Lindsay Pigs, So thank you so much.

Really thought provoking.

We can't say.

From it is as well.

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Look, it's the front pages. We're gonna do that right now. We're do that with Lisa Mateo. It's a special edition of our Front Pages report.

I'm so far behind. I'm like trying to get a fat X on the rock Valentine's Day card for Lisa. Oh, it's it's it's there.

He is.

I hope he gets a royalty on that, Lisa, what do you got? Thank you?

Well, it's been cold here right rain snow, it's been kind of miserable, but we are getting closer to outdoor dining season. April first is the day when you start to see everything come out. The problem is that there's a backlog of applications. So the Department of Transportation, they're the ones that approved the licenses for them to build the sheds and do all that.

This is the street, so we still do that.

We're still doing it because remember they took them down last year because some of them were an iore and that kind of Yeah, a lot of them. So the Department of Transportation has to approve the licenses. So about four thousand applications have been submitted, thirty nine have been approved out of four thousands.

I didn't know we were still doing that.

We're still doing it. So now they're kind of giving the restaurants the green light. If they put in the application, they can build the shed up April first if they apply by the certain rules.

But it's just OK, it's a pretty well, it's good for them.

It's a little bit of an just being in Paris.

I wish we had the sidewalks of Paris so the cafes were comfortable outside, right.

But our sidewalks are just too narrow.

Yeah, I mean they're dining was great during the pandemic. Thank goodness, it's saved.

I think a lot of.

Restaurants for consumers, but I don't know how much.

I don't want Dan doctor Off full disclosure. Folks used to work her huge support of mine, Thank you, Dan. Dan doctor Off provided leadership here on the safety issue of them. And what Lisa you're talking about is the now what.

Yeah, right, right? Interesting? What do you got We'll.

See what happens.

Okay, More adults are actually eating off of the kids menu. So there was a study that came out a number of kids meals placed by adults ro was twenty eight percent last year compared with twenty nineteen. The reason why the smaller portions right, lower calories because a lot more people on the weight loss drugs, so now they need the.

Smaller portion issue cue, so they go.

To the kids menu, cheaper prices to and hey, you get a toy you know to go with it, or price to come along.

I literally go Paul to a certain restaurant, pretty fancy in the Upper East Side because their portions are smaller. Yep, it's not what was the one one of the big chains, like their gimmick was you would go home with fans full of stuff.

Yeah, or even you go to like to a diner and your plate for like breakfast is enormous.

We split it.

We will split our dinner a lot do they do that? Or do and sometimes you get a charge and sometimes I just ordered the appetizer thing. But the exception is crack a barrel. You go in near full bore country boy breakfast, bring it on.

Yeah, but you're right all right, but there And the thing is there's an age limit, right, it's like twelve and under or something. A lot of restaurants, but.

There was.

Paul Sweeney at two am and Shay Waff you would see Carolina exactly. I got an exam and statistics. Please help me.

Next, okay, last one, the rise of the three pointer. Okay, they're saying it's kind of changing basketball. They don't know if it's for the good or for the you know, for the worst. Steph Curry, of course, a big thanks to this, because you established yourself the best long range shooter. So now these generations of basketball players who watch him and look up to him growing.

Up are now in the NBA.

So now you have more of these guys shooting from the outside. Even the taller guys, the over seven footers are shooting behind the three pointly, I know.

Just the evolution of the game, I mean, and all the If you can't shoot the three, I don't know how you get to a good college.

Come on, they should knock the thing backs three feet or four feet.

They could, they could, and then the players will adjust.

That, you know.

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