Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news the single best idea. Shout out to Robin Wigglesworth. Bloomberg does a great job as this as well, but Robin's the one at the FT that sort of codified it, which is the comedy act of keeping track of the annual outlooks. Here's the
way it works, folks, in the vicinity of October. If you have the same marketing staff within investment research, you go through the exitd you go to the ballet again, and you have some meetings, and you get your outlook, and you write a draft and fourteen people look at it. Usually et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Maybe it's a PowerPoint virginny masin if today had a brilliant PowerPoint very
valuable from Alion's. And then you can have a seven page outlook or dare I say a thirty seven page outlook.
The nightmare is when you get a new marketing team on Wall Street, because they have to prove themselves, and so in October the new marketing team at any given firm is going mental about they got to have the one investment outlook to be all and end all, and Robin over at the ft keeps track of like I don't know twenty thirty forty of these outlooks is they go into the new year and everyone knows, including the
entire Bloomberg surveillance team, they're useless. I mean, basically, I'll be polite and say John Ferrell talks about the end of March. Maybe you get to the end of February and they seem ancient. What was written on December twentieth to take a to pick a date as well. What we try to do is move away from the outlooks more to the discussion. We begin with Jeffrey Rosenberg of Black Rock here talking about the nuances of the yield curve of if the two year moves, the ten year might not.
You guys will remember the old greens band cut undrum. Right then he was raising rates, but long term rates weren't going up. They were going down because back then China was rebalancing, not rebouncing, reinvesting all of his trade surpluses back into treasuries, and we couldn't understand why the Fed couldn't control long term interest rates. So I've talked about the possibility that we could see the new conundrum.
What's the new conundrum is here we're cutting interest rates in the short end, but the long end isn't responding. That's exactly what happened in August, right, we cut interest rates fifty basis points, the long end went up. And I think when you look into twenty twenty five, right, we've taken down the amount of cuts that the Fed is expected, but they're still expected to cut rates and if they do, and this is what yesterday's inflation print is kind of worrisome is we're kind of getting into
the consensus around this sticky inflation. Okay, so why are they cutting next month not next month, next week? Because they want to support the job market and the concerned
about the tightening. So they're showing their hand that there's a little bit of preference for the labor market over the inflaew Okay, Well that's a problem for the rate cutting cycle because you can cut the front end, but the back end may be more worried about that sticky inflation and worried about some of those longer term issues around debt and deficits in the fiscal policy side.
An extended conversation with Jeffrey Rosenberg of Blackrock program note for those of you listening to single Best Idea on this Thursday tomorrow, Gene Munster and Dan ives together on MAG seven. Really looking forward to that, and yes I usually don't, but I'm going to you gotta focus on Tesla right now as a moonshot. We'll probably lead off talking about Tesla with Munster and Eyes. We'll do that tomorrow.
On the equity markets, there's different characters, not of permables, but bulls writing with a certain force, a certain intelligence, and one of those clearly is Brian Belski of BEMO Capital. He was on Fired Today intercourse. Deserves to be within this great bull market. He talks about the factor. He's not a big fan. He's looking at fundamental things like earning's growth, free cash flow growth on momo momentum, Belski of Bemo.
One of the things that quite frankly drives us crazy is everyone talking about this momentum investing. But if you go back to nineteen ninety in the US DOC market, you look at rolling returns, the best five factors, which your almost talk about factors are fundamental. Number one is low price, but the rest of them are price to
free cash flow, enterprise. Valey toe, but earning's growth increasing over the next three months, so I think we're returning to that slowly, which again favors amazing assets here in the United States, and that's why we're overweight technology, financials, and consumer discretionary in a little bit in the communication services area, especially considering those are the growth areas. But really from a consistency of growth bases, Tommy, they're the most consistent growers.
I mean, Brian Belski, they're calling me Tommy. I mean my mother called me Tommy. Usually I was in trouble when I was Tommy. Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets on your commute across this station on Bloomberg Radio, Apple, CarPlay, Android, Atto, Sirius XM Channel one twenty one on the quarter. Let's start up at Mount Catada in Mount Washington on down
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