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What a week.
The highlight was the last thing we did. We went to New Orleans and Vanessa Perdomo, on site for Bloomberg in Radio Row, interviewed Joe Montana. She's like lights out, it's her sixth super Bowl. I looked around our studios and I said, let's count super bowls. Sweeneyo went to one a million years ago. I brought up Max McGhee and super Bowl one. Thank you, Vanessa Perdomo for joining us at your sixth super Bowl in New Orleans. We had a super Bowl today. We do it twelve times
a year. Job's day. What a set of guests, Claudia Sam thank you so much for spear heading all of our coverage. But right for the beginning with Jim Bianco and Priam Misra, just a wonderful, wonderful set of conversations onikon finance, investment, in a little bit of international relations. Today Allen Zenner joined us and we talked to Ellen Zenner about this labor economy, but something new, the stock market up, the wealth effect.
We have created a tremendous amount of wealth and so one are we spending the same amount out of that wealth that we normally do. It's just wealth. Is that high? That is one possibility? Or is the still some lingering effects of COVID which taught us we're all going to die tomorrow and so spend it if you got it?
Interesting?
So is it that the marginal propensit to consume? That's a great economist term, tom You like that marginal propense to consume out of wealth may just be higher. And so does that fade the further we get away from COVID further it's in the rear view mirror or does it just stay that high because now we've had some structural shift.
We've seen research on this. I mean, you're in a casperg seat to see research.
Over we have done this research.
Do you see to me it's an unspoken huge deal. Am I wrong?
Yeah? So what I see, what I believe I see in the numbers is that it's just the amount of wealth that has been created has just been that large. I think that we're seeing, we're in the midst of seeing the data is quite lagged on this, that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is returning back to normal but that the wealth we've created is just that high.
That was brilliant cardinal rule. When there's an algebraic function and one of the coefficients has three letters MPC, just move on to the next page. That's my rule on economic algebra. That was brilliant Ellen Zenner there on the marginal propensity to consume and the idea of the wealth effect. I think this is going to be a huge story into twenty twenty five if this bull market continues. We've
talked to Anna Wong. Without question the leading market economists around the world, huge influence on job labor economics, if you will. An along of Bloomberg Economics today and the key revision statistics.
Yes, I was quite surprised that the by how small they are. So in the benchmark period that covers April twenty twenty three to March of twenty twenty four, we only saw five hundred and eighty nine thousand downward revision. We had expected closer to seven hundred thousand, and I think part of it is because I think that BLS still has not entirely updated the birth and death projection.
So in the second half of twenty twenty four, we had expected about two hundred thousandward revisions, but instead of a total downward revision, we actually see a cumulative positive revision, all of which almost came from December of last year. So I think my bottom line is that number one BLS has not come played the updates on lowering the birth and death productions. And second, there is a real improvement towards the end of last year, particularly in December,
in terms of job growth. And I think it's possible that the labor market is in a mist of stabilizing right.
Now and one of Bloomberg economics, and once again the market looks forward and tries to anticipate with the market's wonderful bid and ask sensibility, and maybe a constructive January had something to do with that healing labor market that doctor Wang talked about chiefs or eagles. I don't really have a strong opinion. I mean, I think everyone knows. I'm not expert in any way, shape or form. But we thank Vanessa down in New Orleans for help today
on the commute across America. Thank you for being with us on YouTube as well. Subscribe to bloom podcast and out at the growing each and everyday YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea