Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best Idea and my Valentine gift from the team was a spectacular set of conversations. Today we have a new thing with our calendar and the timing and all the good messages from our wonderful sponsors, where we have a very long what we call a block to begin off each hour. We had an hour strong with Katain Kaminsky of Alpha Simplex, brilliant on trend research. Another good hour with Lindsey Piegsa of stef O, my Economist of the Year last year.
Doctor Piegsa has a stunning call, an outlier call on sub two percent real GDP out there with finally a diminished inflash and she gets nominal GDP top line animal spirit to the low four percent even under four percent region. I can't convey on Valentine's Day what a lonely call that is. But we were so lucky to start the show today with Edward Yard Denny. He is iconic, your Denny Research always in fevor to those of us older from CJ. Lawrence. He has called this the Roaring twenties.
People are saying, yeah, sure it's out there somewhere. Ed Yard Denny says, on this Valentine's Day, the roaring twenties is now, you know.
Like when you go over to Grandma's house and it's a long drive and the kids are in the back asking are we there yet? I think we're there. In terms of the so called nirvana norm for the economy, the dual mandate has been accomplished. We've got the unemployment rate at four percent, we've got real GDP rising up around three percent, and we got the inflation rate not quite a two percent, but some somewhere around two and
a half to three percent. And so the Fed has accomplished what it wants to do, which leads me to conclude that there's really no reason for the Fed to lower interest rates anymore. Indeed, I don't really think that there was much reason for them to lower it by one hundred basis points. And my friend, the Friends of the bond, Vigelan, you seem to agree with me, because the bonios rose one hundred basis points. Is the FED lowered the Fed funds rate by one hundred basis points, near.
All time highs ed Yard Denny and his Bullmarket to review. Yard Denny and the Great Technician rail fan, Kompora, a few others as well, calling for a bull market October, and I can't believe him saying this over two years ago, twenty twenty two, and we make note of Benjamin Laidler and then at HSBC and now in London, ben Laidler really calling a bullmarket on Christmas Eve of two thousand and eighteen, which is forever ago. Whatever it is, it's
a bullmarket. And we think Edyard Denny for that perspective. Of course, so much going on in internet national economics wrapped around tariffs and reciprocity, and your Denny on the tariffs.
I'm very happy that they're using the word reciprocal rather than retaliatory. Retaliatory is what the smooth Holly tariff was. In June of nineteen thirty, we raised our tariffs without any concerns about the impact in other countries, and other countries retaliated and we had a world depression. And then to get out of that, we passed the Congress passed the Reciprocal Tariff Act, which basically the basic theme of that was, please take this power out of our hands.
We're too dangerous with tariffs. Let the president do it well. You know, the president's doing it again right now. And I think the fact that they're calling it reciprocal, and the President said it yesterday, said look, we're just going to be fair and we're going to match their tariffs. But if they want to talk about it, lower it, we'll do that. So I think is all going to lead to lower tariffs, not higher tariffs. When all of a sudden done.
Ed Yar Dunny, there were a constructive thought on what we're all focused on. The news flow absolutely extraordinary on your commute on Apple CarPlay, Android Auto, Good Morning ninety nine one FM in Washington, up to ninety two nine FM in Boston. In our flagship station, Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York. We're on YouTube and on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea.