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Single best idea, the last one of the year. We will revisit in January to reframe what seems to be an exceptional twenty twenty five. I just mentioned to Paul Sweeney, I've never seen a holiday season with less focus on how stores are doing. I don't know why that is. Maybe we'll pick up the pieces in January. One thing I heard two or three days ago which I do agree with, and I think it's important. We're setting ourselves up for an exceptionally important earning season. Look for that
January twenty five ish. I think Apple's January thirtieth and into early February with a frenzy JP Morgan I'm assuming is I don't have it in front of me January fifteenth, seventeenth, whatever. But the earning season I think this year, for the fourth quarter will really be something on this final single best idea for the year on what I watch most closely, which is the inflation adjusted rate tips piece tenure. Here's Brett Barker of TCW on the left coast. Brett Barker on higher real rates.
This is really reminiscent of fall of twenty twenty three. If you remember back then, there was a lot of talk of risk premium fiscal largess, right, and we had real rates in the thirty yearth sector close to two sixty. We're not too far from there now, and the ten year rates within twenty base points where we were there. So I think we look at that. I think real rates are restricted. So for us, I think you're getting close to these points. I think people are talking about
how we can go. It's like, well, I think at this point at time, you're basically back to almost PREGFC levels on real rates, and we don't think the economy is the same as it was in PGFC, so we think these are pretty restricted real rates.
That's really important statement Brett Barker TCW. Here, and this is this restrictive or accommodative goes to the heart of the matter. That's the debate that's engaged in economics, finance, investment, and indeed redounding over to international relations as well and the real rate. You know, but for those of you that don't follow this, from a one point nine zero ish out to two point twenty five ish is a really significant move. TCW cautious there as well on a
Christmas Eve, Benjamin Ladler then at HSBC. This is twenty eighteen twelve, twenty four eighteen. Ben Ladler said, get on board stocks. It's one of the great bullmarket calls of all time. It's been a six year run EBB and flow here COVID. I looked in two thousand and I think twenty three. Maybe we had a draw down a seven or eight percent. Whatever, the answer is, it's been a great bullmarket. And congratulations to strategists that have led on that. One who's led is from OpCo. His name
is John Stolfis. He writes a brilliant short accessible non Mathey notes, and they talk about participation in the market and participating with an optimism the corporations will adapt. He has a stunning call out the SPX seven thousand ish that gets you out near DOWBT forty nine thousand, Dow fifty thousand, maybe with some optimism and a cup of eggnag out to fifty one thousand on the doubt. John STOFISOVOPKO the view forward.
First thing, I've got to say that I think the bears got it wrong and that they thought the FED was going to blow up the economy. Push US into a recession with the with the Ray high cycle that they started in March twenty two. Instead, the Fed was very sensitive in exercising its dual mandate. Then the bear's been really bid wrong on the consumer. We always say,
don't bet against the American consumer. The consumer discretionary, by the way, is the best performing S and P five hundred index since August fit which was the summer low, which was when the market had that fullback of around eight percent.
Paul Sweeney told me to buy Walmart. I didn't. I guess that's consumer discretionary. John Stolphus of OpCo on your community across the nation on Apple car Play worldwide, on Apple car Play and Android Auto, on Serius XM channel one twenty one and from Nathan Hagars Washington in ninety nine one FM, Tamal Kataden and Boston in ninety two nine and on YouTube. All I can say is subscribe
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