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There's two kinds of charts technical analysis. First, like literally the second day I'm at Bloomberg, Peter has me in the office and he says, tell me about technical analysis because he thinks it's voodoo and smoke and mirrors. There's two types. There's trend based, which is what I do, and then there's more momentum stubcastics, the dynamics of the immediate market. Jeff de Graph and I promise we're going to do more to graph this twenty twenty five. Jeff
de Graph own this at Lehman Brothers years ago. He's now technical research co founder Renaissance Macro. And this is well timed because yesterday on the Scott Wapner Marathon at the Death Star, I mean Wapner's on for like six hours straight. There's somebody on the show going after Jeff de Graf. Believe on exuberance, So folks for Global Wall Street Degraph has the exuberance meter in hand. Jeff, I was I was amazed yesterday how Wapner had to defend
you on the Death Star, Jeff de Grath. Are we overly exuberant right now?
I don't think so, Tom, and I do appreciate Scott sticking up for us. I'll have to send him a bottle of wine at Christmas.
Give him some of the empty twenty Wapner deserves an MD twenty twenty, give him that. Are we overly exuberant?
So?
I don't think so? And let me explain why we measure the spread between high momentum names and low momentum names. And it's really nothing more, you know, complicated than saying what you know, if we rank names over the last year, what names are at the top twenty percent, what names are at bottom twenty percent? And then how are those
two buckets doing? And when we look at the sixty five day rolling return of that spread, which I know this is a snoozer, but right now it's at the eighty second percentile, when it gets to the ninetieth percentile, and we play momentum, we just like you, we play trend. We believe in those things because that's the right thing
to do. Through time, we can tell you that when it gets to the plus ninetieth percentile, we'll take a step back and say, look, too many people are playing this and this is way too dangerous for a reversion. And so while you know, there are a few anecdotes that got thrown out there with the Metas and the Plantas and et cetera, but you know, those are anecdotes, and when we really look at the meat of it, even just the top one hundred names and the Russell
one thousand, we're not in that ninetieth percentile. And why that's important, Tome is the risk is that you say, okay, it's over bottom, going to sell them today, and the next thing you know, your app love and is up thirty percent. And you know we all know this. The market generally can be so seductive that it brings you
back in it's exactly the wrong time. So to be too early to fade the momentum trade really is dangerous and requires a lot of mental fortitude, if you will, and I don't think most people have that.
Jeff, I did everything I could to be sure Damien Sasso is with me today.
Damien, Jeff, I mean Tom mentioned it early. You weret Lehman Brothers from ninety eight to two thousand and seven, and I'm sure you remember that a young aspiring emerging market strategist came into your office in two thousand and two. His name was Damien, by the way, and he didn't ask about oscillators. He didn't ask about bowl in your bands. He was asking about the Ichimoku cloud. I mean, do you remember this conversation. Probably not, but here's my question
for you. You look at performance here to date, and you're absolutely right. Equity momentum is the leader. It's of something on the order of four percent year to date. Trend trend is sucking wind here. Talk to us about he's trend following saturagy strategies. Talk to us about that nice upward sloping risk adjusted return that you're supposed to get from trend and why the strategy is not delivering.
Well, it's a fair point, and look, it's not going to deliver all the time, and so we have to be careful of that. And I do remember because there aren't many people that talk about those clouds, which I can't even pronounce, so I won't try, so you did hit the nail on the head when they say be unique, be unique, that certainly was it. I'm looking for the technical analysis dictionary trying to look up what the heck
you were talking about. The bottom line is trends work, and we actually are seeing trends intra market work, right. In other words, we're seeing trends within the sector's work, we're seeing trends within the industry group's work, we're seeing trends within the actual stocks work. The difference is what we have today is more of a trend market than
a momentum market. And what I mean by that is, even though we're within what less than two percent of a new high, we have less than fifty percent of the names within the S and P five hundred above their own twenty day moving average. Now that's not a high bar, right. The twenty day moving averages is obviously just the average over the last month. So it really
is this rotational market that we're seeing. And that's why I think it's so frustrating for people that we've got the market very close to a new high and yet fifty percent or only half the names are above their own twenty day moving average. And that gets really frustrating
for portfolio managers. It is though at the same time a very good market for long short I mean that that is kind of the definition of what you want, which is I have the ability to add value through what I'm seeing on a long short basis.
Pro tip here and this of course part of Jeff degraph I studied the clouds years ago. I had like a two week looking at Ken Jusen and Sengku span A, and I just said, I don't get it. And folks, one of the big advantages of the Bloomberg is you can study the different technical theories to decide critically what you do like and as far more important as Jeff knows what you don't like as well. I went down at flames on the.
Air and you get back test them BTST on the terminal. Guys, you have to check it out.
But you know, a NDMAC weekly Survival.
Guide is must read. It is a must read for anybody in the financial markets. And that is all you up the graft.
Talk to us about what's going on with copper, I.
Mean copper hangsaying correlations over bought in a week trend.
I mean I'm catching this it's up eight percent year today. What is going on.
Copper, Well, it certainly is has started to fire up, and that's reassuring because we are seeing some signs in you know, the overall market that the cyclical part of the market is coming under pressure. So getting a little bit of a boost out of copper is certainly helpful and you hit the nail on the head at least in our opinion, which is we think, and we've been in this camp for probably six or nine months now,
that China is in the bottoming process. We had trend change last year, we had a momentum surge, and there's a very good relationship there between the price of copper and both the Hangsang and the Shanghai three hundred. So, you know, really our biggest most bullish call, and we've said this and i'll say it here, we think China is in the eighth nine stage where the US was. We think that it is in that moment that you had.
One of the things that we measure is alpha through time, and you can do this with markets, you can do it with sectors. You can't do it with stocks, or you can, but it's not going to give you any information the alpha generation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, the negative alpha generation was as extreme as anything we'd seen in forty years. And unless you think that that is just going to evaporate and they're no longer going to be a global player, that just isn't sustainable. And so
that can be early and we certainly recognized that. But it was the momentum and the trend change that really said, hey, these two things combined are pretty powerful. And I think that's the residual of what you're seeing Copper for all.
Of you acrassination in your morning commute, particularly for Global Wall Street on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's our new television. Thrilled with what we see on YouTube. Jeffrey de Graph with us for an extended conversation here from Runmack as we look at technicals and fold that into just as much not losing money is making money, Jeff
to Graph. The big change here going back to the fossil tum I think a chart craft up in Larchmond and Wells Wilder and ADXDMI and all the trend based stuff to Damian Lehman years ago with you with you at Marilyn Lehman Jeff to graph. What's so different now is the financial media, and there's this frenzy, particularly on Fridays, of trying to market time by not participating in the market. Basically,
it's one big media frenzy, go to cash. How should our listeners and viewers use your skills to participate in the market even if they're hit with a frenzy.
Well, that's a really really good point, Tom, and I mean this gets very philosophical, but let's start with the buy and hold right or at twelve let's just say a twelve month time horizon, even a six month time horizon. Your probability over the last one hundred years of having a positive return over six or twelve month time horizon is above sixty percent. It's right around sixty five percent, frankly,
So let's call it two thirds of the time. So if you think about that, you know, if you had a coin and you flip that coin and you had that advantage of being right two thirds of the time, you're gonna win a lot of money. Right, So there's an extraordinarily high bar, and I think this is what people miss. There's an extraordinarily high bar to be bearish, right,
Just your default position should be bullish. And as I always you know, quip when people ask me, you know, how am I thinking about the world, I'm like, I'm a fully invested bear. That's the way I think about the world. I'm always looking over my shoulder. But I know that the default position should be bullish. That's not to say we're always bullish, because we're not. But again, the bar is so high to be bearish, and I
think that's what people need to recognize. And one of the ways that we do that is through trend following, and we just say, look, if the trends are not on our side, then we have cleared that bar, at least one portion of that bar that we need to
think about. And certainly we think about the FED, we think about money supply, we think about some other things, valuation, All those things are important in that mixture, but really the one that stands out to us spend the most consistent through time, because you know, the circumstances change as to why there's a bear market. The market itself does not.
The market will tell you that it's in a bear market simply by the trend, and so that ends up being our kind of final arbiter if you will, of our market.
Calls, Jeff, you know, a lot of strategist myself included, we kind of make that mistake of equating technical analysis really with the equity market. But let's be clear, a lot of other markets, specifically rates and FX trade on technicals, you know, talk to us about those markets or your indicators picking up movement, picking up direction, and for example the US treasury market.
Yeah, that one's a tough one. I mean, I will say we've been both Neil Dutta, who's our economists in our shop, and myself, we've been more optimistic on You don't tell him that we've been more optimistic on bonds frankly than you know then what the outcome has been.
And part of that is because the trend has been mixed, and our underlying data says, look, even though we had this inflation print, it looks to us if we look at the really key root causes of inflation historically and where we are with a FED fund, a two year yield, and a bunch of other factors, it says to us that bonds are actually probably a pretty decent buy right here if we're to look at it out the next twelve to eighteen months. I know there's a lot of
uncertainty around that, but that's always the case. So the kind of gold standard, if you will, of some of the indications that we look are still saying that bonds look attractive. So we haven't had a strong call on that, or a good call, i should say, over the last three to six months. So certainly our tails between our
legs a little bit on that one. But I think one of the best things for a technical is in FX because you do get these policy shifts that don't tend I know that the new administration may be an outlier here, but they don't tend to be that volatile to kind of set a trajectory and they go. And so you know, one of the things that we're actually
seeing right now, which I think is interesting. We're not getting the trends yet, but we are seeing some setups is just the outright bearishness of four x right Canadian dollar, their hero dollar. I mean, these things are really really washed out. So even though the trends aren't in place, we have a couple setups in those that suggests that we probably get some relief in those currencies.
Jeff de Graff just set up Damien Sassa there for our last question.
Well, I mean he took the words right out of my mouth.
I mean, really, the reality is when you're looking at rates and you're looking at fixed income, the reason a technical analysis, in my opinion, doesn't work as well is.
Because of Carrie, right.
I mean, you've got this coupon income that kind of smooths your turns out over time. But let's talk about BBDX y. Let's talk about the dollar here. We've seen a one hundred and sixty basis point reversal in the last month, Jeff, I mean it's choppy this year, man, So talk to us a little bit about what your indicators are telling you about the future direction of king dollar.
Well, I think the overall trends for the dollar are still firm. I think it's in this long consolidation zone right. In other words, overbought momentum is fading. That usually results in a consolidation that takes you back into the longer term trend if you will kind of think about it
les a regression. I think the biggest uh uh weakness for the dollar here, the vulnerability is probably a better word, is where what we see in that sentiment set up right there, it's become such a one sided trade that anything that kind of shakes that is going to have people clamoring to get right sided again. And that's the that's the challenge.
Jeff forgetting get that was very Luisia Mauda. By the way, Jeff de grafh just simply what is the best way to express long China.
Well, there's there's e t F, there's the f x I, there's the m c H I believe it is the k web. There's there's a lot of ETFs that you can you can have exposure uh h e w h is Hong Kong. So there's there's plenty of opportunities there to to get exposure.
Jeff, thank you so much. Don't be a stranger, mister de graph works of mister Dutta Renaissance Macro. I should point out mister dud was my Economist of the Year, I think two years ago.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business Up, or watch us live on YouTube professor A.
Schiller, whether it's Wendy Schiller or Brown University Angela's stint in the nine o'clock hour, Who is mister Putin going to speak to Professor Schiller?
Is that your question? Okay? Can you elaborate on that question please?
We got Putin's gonna talk to Trump, and I guess he's not going to talk to Ukraine. But is it just the bilet meet in greet or do you actually see some Ukraine negotiation here?
No, we've talked about this before. I think there's no question Trump wants to be the guy that ends this conference. Yes, you know what, and so he you know, so far he is not pressuring the Republican Control Congress to cut off future aid to Ukraine, but that's clearly in his sort of basket of negotiating tools with Ukraine. He's willing to give away pieces of Ukraine on Ukraine's behalf. But he also, we'll basically tell Putin, I'll stay in this as long as we have to do right. So that's
that's when you say, who's he talking to? You know, that's what Trump wants, and I actually think there's a pretty good chance he'll get it because Ultimately he's willing to walk away from Ukraine. And I think Zelenski.
Knows that the pivot point on his folks is, I believe two thousand and eight Kundalisa, Rice and Robert Gates in Belgrade and sort of when we decided to extend NATO, et cetera, et cetera. Professor Schiller, how far is President Trump in his Oval office foreign policy from traditional American foreign policy?
Tom, This is like a mind meld. It's just thinking, this is exactly the opposite of the George Herbert Walker Bush and the George W. Bush Republican Party, which was, you know, engage, exert influence, send troops where you need to. So this is a complete sea change. This is going back to the nineteen forties. This is sort of Southern
Conservative Democratic Party isolationism. This is we will exert power when we need to, when it's in our interest, but otherwise we are not going to come to the rescue of democracy. We're not going to promote it. Clearly shutting down usaid, you know, we're not going to do this anymore.
And John Quincy Adams said this, you know, in the eighteen twenties, you know we'll be with you, but we don't have to go in search of monsters to destroy That's what he put how he put it, it's taking the United States into a completely different realm on foreign policy. But it's not sought power. Trump is willing to use the power. He just used it in his interest and the United States interest.
Professor Schuller, I want to pay it back to Ukraine here. I mean, if we have a snap election coming up in Germany in the next two weeks, there's a lot of polling going on, and my question for you is if Professor if Zelenski gets you know, if he had the opportunity to vote in Munich, who would he be voting for?
Would it be.
DSDP, would it be the CDU, would it be the AFG. I mean, talk to us about what's coming up in Germany.
Well, the Germans are facing sort of like multiple problems at once.
Right.
We know, in the economy they have a very sort of heavily socialized, heavy tax state. They've always done well in this manufacturing sector, they've always done well internationally. That's slipping that edge, and the capacity to support their internal welfare state is also slipping. There's also been tremendous immigration and migration to Germany. That changes in society. So you're doing the two things at once. And we know that
in the United States we're having the same themes. So you know, the instability in Germany could be solved by going right right right wing, and that will you know, how that bodes for Russia German relations, I think is unclear for us at the moment, but certainly when you think about this trend all over Europe and in the United States, you know it doesn't bode well for those people who think we should go out and champion democracy.
But sovereignty is something different. Ukraine is about sovereignty, and that's another question that you start to wonder about with you know, especially with President Trump saying he wants Panama, I wants Greenland, he wants Gaza. You know, then you think about sort of nation states sovereignty and it gets very, very competible when they get one.
More question in here. We got talent in the studio. Here we got to get to or is agent's going to go mental? When doy Schiller Navarro wants reciprocal trade, are we bombing ourselves? Back to Section three three eight of the Terror fact of nineteen thirty.
Well, we don't nobody wants to go back to nineteen thirty trade policy, I think, right, Tom, I mean, you know, you exacerbate him then cause a worldwide global depression that lasts until World War two. So I don't think anybody really wants to go back there. But we haven't seen the impact on the American industries, particularly farm particularly export industries. A lot of these have not hit yet. We saw on the first Trump administration that they're expensive. When they hit,
things go south. So you know, his po poll numbers are very high. Now, wait a couple of months till these things really hit and see how the economy is doing. And I do think the administration will have to modify, but probably not for a couple of months.
Wendy, thank you so much, Professor Schuler, The Tubmin Center, Brown At University.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Julia Pollock right, now of zip recruiter do PPI then come back to the wonderful economist at zip recruiter, Julia, Good morning to you. You kel Irvine has a really, really staunch history in computer science. I saw a chart today of the death of technology jobs witness metalane off, etc. Zip recruiter advised people to go into computer science type programs. Now what do you see it, Zip recruiter.
That is a great question. So tech was the place to be in twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen, huge job growth, wage growth, and as a result, people responded to those market signals, government economics. Those were some of the big concentrations when I was a student in college. Now overwhelming. The computer science is the biggest major at top schools, and those students are struggling. Tech has not just stayed
flat the last two years. It has lost jobs for two years, and we learned that with the last jobs report, with those benchmark revisions. All those curves were sort of flat before and they've actually kind of swiveled around rotated downwards since then. So we know tech is having a pretty gloomy season, and the announcement of further tech layoffs suggests those just continued pressure to optimize and become more efficient. Tech companies aren't really looking to grow at.
The moment, Julie.
We've got claims coming up in just a few here, But I really want to ask you about the noise in the US job market. By noise, I mean if I just look back, we look at you know, weather related incidents like hurricanes, the LA wildfires.
But now we've got these government buyouts.
I'm curious to hear your thought on what if any impact that's going to have on these figures.
I think it's going to have a huge impact in the aggregate. So first of all, these workers are going to stay on payrolls for the next seven months, even the ones who've accepted the buyouts, and then when they do, they probably won't go into unemployment. Most will go from pay roll to payroll. Seven months is a long time to find a job. Most people even today find a job with it about two and a half months. That's
the media unemployment rate unemployment duration. So you're not probably going to see it much in the agregate.
Statistics, you know.
I'm also curious about, you know, this whole concept of hybrid work. Right, We've seen a lot of people returning to the oppice. I mean, Jamie Diamond wants everyone back in the office. Is they want me back on Sundays? I want to ask you what you're seeing in the numbers in terms of, you know, remote work, I mean, does it still exist? Is it turning in the other direction? Are we sort of flatlining here?
Let me to find out for Julia here, what is talking about is work from golf simulator? No?
No, no, I know what's aid that? No?
No.
So we did a major employer survey recently at Zippergruter. Thirty one percent of employers have pulled back on remote work and imposed some kind of return to the office mandate. But wait, thirty three percent have actually expanded remote work. So you have an interesting situation where in the aggregate,
remote work is actually flat as a pancake. To quote Nick Bloom, the big scholar of remote work, and especially if you look at Fortune five hundred companies, more than eighty percent of their corporate employees allowed to work remote or hybrid. Among companies founded in just last ten years, young new companies, it's more than more like ninety something percent. So remote work is here to stay. But the big stodgy older companies. And you know Amazon fits that bill
these days. JP Morgan fits the Bilbows these days. That these are older companies, these are not the new scrappy startups. Yes, you do see leadership.
Yeah, like the office, Julia Pollock with us, she will stay with us after we see the data. I'm glad Damian brings up will also get claims her initial claims that statistic and Survey two hundred and sixteen thousand. I can't say enough, folks about Julia's observation there on Professor Bloom of Stanford, his ambiguity over the last ninety days. I mean, even the guy who's smartest on this and has put the most data work into it, is unsure which way hybrid is cutting, you know. I mean it's
just that simple as do this. We're going to get to the PPI report right now. I've got red and green on the screen, the Vicks sixteen point one.
Two and the news just coming out. So yesterday CPI came in hotter than expected. Today PPI for January hotter than expected too, up three point three percent. That was the expectation. Came in a three point five percent. That's year over year. We take food and energy energy out of the picture. Three point three percent that was expected came in three point six percent. Want to go to initial Jabalis claims the expectation was for two hundred and
sixteen thousand came in a bit lower. Two hundred than thirteen thousand applications were filed last week. Now we see the difference in the markets just a bit. Right now we have NAZEC futures up about a ten percent, twenty five points. We have down futures. Still little change does in be future, still little change. The two year yield four point three four percent, that's little change, and the yield on the ten year four point six zero percent,
that's down about one basis point. But I heard a couple wows from you, Tom, I did.
It, did revisions, Lisa, she didn't have I didn't have it either. Just moments ago the revisions set higher as well. The annual revisions, which are critical here, will be part of it. But these are wow statistics and that they confirm what we saw yesterday in CPI with this set of business inflation statistics, final demand and the other mix of it different from twenty thirty years ago. The way it's measured show a sense of inflation, a little bit of green in the screen. The red and the green
go out as well. But in the yield space, I'm going to call it confusion initially lower yields. I really need to see where that settles out over the next ten fifteen minutes as you digest this data and damian the ten year really youal two point one five percent. It's beginning to pull up a little bit.
Yeah, yeah, it with a two two just a few weeks back.
I mean, look, now this puts the onus on tomorrow's import price index because that should come in pretty hot as well. And if this inflation narrative that things are kind of getting up here starts to get hold of the markets, that whole asymmetric risk return profile in terms of the cutting before it hikes goes out the door set.
Yeah, I agree totally. And let's go to Julia Pollock. Here was it recruited. Julia, I got CPI up. I got PPI up. If I get a nominal retail sales to which has some energy to it, do I get to a nominal GDP that that sets us up for a hung fed where they can't move?
That is quite possible I mean, this is some of the January figures could be seasonal noise. We know then the past January reports coming hotter than others. But there's a choppy path head. Employers are going to hold back because of these high interest rates until those are a greater clarity and consumers and businesses base continued cost pressures, and then this is a big problem for the economy. I think everyone had hoped by now that we would
be heading forwards a three point five percent. Ten, you're not a four point five percent.
Well, the biggest DV is PPI, core X Food and Energy year over year three point three was a survey. The revision is higher three point seven, and the statistic today is three point six. I mean, you fold this into Trump tariffs, like where are we, Damien? Fourth of July.
Well, I'll tell you where I am.
I'm fifty one years old, and you know, I want to go back, Julie's to what you said before the break when you were talking about these dodgy old companies and you mentioned JP Morgan, and I mean, maybe I'm getting a little bit old here, but that doesn't.
Seem st dodgy to me.
And I guess the question I have for you is within what you're seeing at Supercruder, the demographics beneath the surface. What about guys my age, like are they finding jobs? I mean, I mean, I'm just curious. You know, it's an AI world, it's young, it's tech driven. Where are the job's coming from?
So a healthcare is the big exception, It remains month after months after months, the one bride spot where they're it's leads. The one industry where hiring rate has gone.
Up, biotech, life science is not just kidding. I'm kidding. I'm kidding now, but I take your points on that. So healthcare is won.
I mean, but that can't possibly support the market the way you know we're seeing here.
I mean, where are these pay it? Is it immigration, But.
Every other sector it's a major decline in the hiring rate or it's flat and job growth has been flat to negative in most vectors. Just a few areas where where new jobs.
Are being well. Please come back. Julia Pollock with us a ZIP recruiter. We love to speak to her about the incredible digital driven granularity of ZIP recruiter.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
This is my book of the year. I don't really care what comes the next eight, nine, ten months. Angela's Stents definitive Putin's world, Russia against the West and with the rest is brilliant on mister Putin. We're honored that Angela Stent would join us today, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Angela, in the last chapter of your acclaim book, what kind of engagement with Russia? How should the President of the United States engage with mister Putin here in the coming days and weeks.
It's a great question. Glad to be on your show again. What's interesting is that you know, mister Putin, having been in the wilderness in terms of what contacts with Western leaders for the past three years now, has this offer from President Trump to meet in Saudi Arabia and then
probably in Washington and in Moscow. What I find curious about all of this is that if you read the book The Art of the Deal right, you don't give away your maximum position before you start negotiating, and so mister Hegseith and echoed by President Trump, have essentially conceded to the Russians most of what they want. So I would think that this would probably be when they do meet, you know, a rather positive engagement, because they're only the same page.
Give us an update on the weight of the past as you begin your book, the weight of the past of President Trump hearkening to tariffs of the nineteen thirties, and the weight of the past of Vladimir Putin harkening back to Elizabeth or Catherine Rather or Alexander the Great. I mean, the weight of the past here in these discussions.
Is huge, right, Yeah, I think that's a terrific point. I mean, obviously, this fascination with tariffs making the US stronger again is also you know, mister Trump's understanding of history.
But with Putin, he now sees an opportunity to sit down with the American president, you know, without the Ukrainians, without the Europeans who are supposed to once the deal is done, and you know, make sure that it's enforced, sitting down with the American president and essentially agreeing let's go back, you know, to that nice day in Yalta in February of nineteen forty five, when the US and Russia and the Soviet Union at that point essentially divided
the world between them, with Great Britain sitting there this time. In the end, probably China will be let in. But for the moment, that's what Putin wants, that's what he's looking back to, and he may well get.
That Angel is the part of any deal.
There's a word that they might have to freeze the borders here right given where we are, and my question for you is, talk to me about the Kursk region, the region that Ukraine invaded, the region that is currently under U Ukraine control. You think Putin would ever allow that region to be transferred over to the Ukrainians.
Oh, absolutely not. I mean, the Ukrainians were hoping that if they continue to occupy part of the Kursk region, they could use that as a bargaining leverage to get some of their territory back that Russia is now occupying. I would be very surprised if that was part of the deal. Again, I haven't heard that from any of the American negotiat potential negotiators.
On that Angel's stent. You're an expert witnessed with the president. President. I think of the gentleman from Exceun mister Tillerson exiting stage right at some point your observation of the first twenty five twenty six days of the reign of Marco Rubio at the State Department. Is he the Secretary of State or is he sitting on the Oval Office couch just taking notes.
That's also a good question. I note that Secretary Rubio has changed his position on a number of issues. You know when he said he was seven.
Angela, wait a minute, she is the politest guest.
Yeah, very nice, Angela.
Continue with the diplomacy that the Jurgen is it claim for right?
So President Trump named the main people yesterday who are going to be negotiating. He did have Secretary Rubio as part of that group. What's even more curious to me is he is General Kellogg appointed as the chief negotiator in Munich now with his ready to negotiate, President Trump
didn't even mention him. So I think this comes back to if you look at the people who were mentioned, it looks as if mister Witkova, right, who not too many of us knew before he apparently got the American teacher Mark Foger released that these and this was the pattern in the first Trump administration. It's often people you know, very close to President Trump, who don't necessarily have official positions, who seem to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
Now, this is why we have you on Angela's stent. Keith Kellogg has earned it. He's actually a throwback, folks, to the kind of military we had in the first weeks of the first Trump administration. What would you expect Angela's stent. General Kellogg can advise on to the Ukrainians and particularly mister Zelenski, or for that matter, to our European allies who feel left out.
So I think General Kellogg, as I know him, I've read he's much more suspicious and hawkish on Russia than apparently a number of the other people who are going to be involved in this. So I think if I were him, he clearly has to advise the Ukrainians, you know, to be as tough as they can and to try and retain whatever leverage they have. He has, however, said that they should be holding elections soon, which would be
very difficult as long as the war goes on. And by the way, even if Trump Whut meet and negotiations begin, the Russians aren't going to stop that war until they get, you know, what they want. And I think what he would be advising the Europeans is is that they remain involved and step up when this war is over, because both President Trump and mister Hexth it may be clear that US troops aren't going to be part of this deal.
And Jel, I have to ask you a question.
We don't have a lot of time for it, because I know we could talk about it for hours. But the Carcassus runs in and Georgia in specific, the Georgia Dream, you know, all of that, all of that Armenia. It just taught to us a little bit about what is going on in Ukraine and the spillover effect into some of these nations you're seeing that lie between the Asian step and Russia itself.
Yeah, well, in Georgia you now have a government in power that's much more pro Russian and if you look at opinion polls, George and said, you know, we don't want to happen to us what happened to Ukraine, and therefore we have to accept the fact we probably need a government that's more pro Russian. Our mean is going the other way. It's now distancing itself from Russia, trying to have a closer relationship with the US and with Europe.
So there's a lot of turmoil. But obviously the Russian war on Ukraine has made all of these countries sit up and think about how they negotiate their future.
Yet one final question quickly here, doctor sten In, this incredibly original meeting of Trump and Putin, what will you listen for?
So I'm going to listen for, you know, what they say when they come out. I mean, every other meeting he's had with President Putin, President Trump has praised him. President Putin has also praised Trump, but you know, less enthusiastically.
I'll be listening for that, and.
I'll be listening to see whether, in fact these two leaders are going to go on and negotiate something more than an enter the war in Ukraine, but in fact, whether the United States is going to see to Russia what it once, which is a restoration of the sphere of influence.
It is a one volume, three hundred and sixty two pages. I can't say enough about it. Angela's Stent Putin's World my book of the year, I guess said three years ago. Thank you so much, doctor sent Honored to have you with us here this morning. Always with a Brookings Institution.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flag Tip New York station Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Now a look at the front Pages.
What's making news around the world, Your.
Daily roundup of today's headlines on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keane, Paul Sweeney and Lisa Matteo.
Damien Sasarry and for Paul Suoeney. It is the daily look at the front Pages. Lisa Matteo joins today.
All right, it is happening. Android phones now getting Apple TV for the first time, So if you look, it's on the Google Play Store. It's a free download. Before you can only get it on Apple's own operating system third party platforms like Roku. But they want to boost their streaming subscribers. I mean, they had the hits they had several they have ted lasso, huge hit, but it's just been lagging behind.
They're lagging behind, but they'll catch it up. Neil Lohan of YouTube, the leader at YouTube who you know, we owe so much too in terms of the successful experiment, put out a lengthy note yesterday and I was sort of thunderstruck. How Google's not resting on their laurel. They've got this project, that project to get the Lisa Mateo project.
Well, at least how much does it cost to a TV plus? Like what's.
Now?
They increased it?
Yeah, it used to be four ninety nine.
Oh that's cheap, right, huh?
I you know, Paul Studio will say how many people are actually watching ample TV plus?
And I don't know.
What I see at home is YouTube in Netflix? And that's that's my extensive summary. Yes you know, I mean it's it's six What do you got?
That's my good?
YouTube and Netflix? Okay, so this new side hustle is back in the spotlight. We're talking about the professional line standards, you know, the people who stand in line and people pay them to do it to get certain things on task. Grab it. They jumped eighteen percent in US and November and December. The reason why, though they're saying, is because retail brands are leaning into these luxury, real life experiences
that you have to stand in line for. So since more people are doing that, they need more people to stand in line for them. Also, restaurant reservations. I didn't realize this, but some of them you do have to stand in line for. You can't just call or go online and make a reservation. So they have that, like Lucali in Brooklyn, where like Taylor's and Kelsey you know went, so those places you have to stand in line.
Oh so she lost your calling them Kelsey now it used to be Travis.
Sorry.
So the restaurant thing is out of control. I mean, Damian, you have a real life.
I mean my question is, look, you know we need to make them in my household. You know, I've got three little kids. Can they stand in line? Can we pay them?
I mean, I mean, like, how old do you have to be to be a professional line stander?
You know, I don't know, but they can make up to twenty seven dollars an hour, That's what I'm saying.
The restaurant thing. I don't have the patience for the restaurant thing.
Yeah.
For I'm just like, is it.
Do you experience this?
I do some, but to have to stand in line take somebody restaurant.
Somebody the other day said they denied entrance because they didn't give them their phone number. They said, I'm not going to give you my phone number. In the restaurants I go. It was McDonald's.
Sorry, last one. Tariff fears are changing a lot of things, right, We've been talking about it, but the fears in Europe actually pushing dealers to fly gold bars by commercial plane from London to New York, so we all know, right, sparking the biggest trans atlantic movement and physical bars in years. This is from the Wall Street Journal. They're saying traders, major banks, they want to yank them from the vaults deep below London streets. Also Swiss gold refineries bar bring
them across. They're saying, JP Morgan HSBCS.
A size the size of the James Bond, like.
The size of a gold bar, would make the plane tip.
They're on commercial planes. If you're coming from London to hey, JFK, you might be on a pretty pricey plane.
What I think, what I think, Lisa is really onto you here is the fact that a gold bar costs a lot more Manhattan than it does in London, and so that has.
Everything to do with which with dollas sterling, I mean, with the.
Best I would just opine that if you're coming out of Milan, the old bar is called a Fendi bag. You know, you buy a Fendi bag at the Fendy store there in Roma or whatever, and that's like a gold bar equivalent.
You've never been at Bloomingdale's across the street when a senior kind of pulled a gold bar at the bet.
Lisa, how was Pantera in Berlin? It was you.
People are actually believing that when they see me.
This is great.
I mean, I'm glad you stood behind the speakers as well.
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