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The Conversation of the Day, Amy with Silverman, joins us from the Royal Bank of Canada RBC Capital Markets. Amy, you take the four cross moments and you bringing it into the dispersion in the market, the huge variance of opinions. How does one navigate the markets with such wide dispersion?
Hi, Tom, Yeah, it's a great question. It's one that folks have been noodling on because when you do have high dispersion in the market, so meaning some stocks are going one way, others are going the other way, you do have this effect of it kind of canceling out on the index level and making signals like the VIX
look lower than I think we feel it ought to be. Right, you have closed the closed VIX hasn't even surpassed that twenty, but we all feel the whiplash of those headlines and part of the culprit for why it feels lower from a volatility perspective, is that dispersion is so high, we don't have this big correlated co move particularly during earning.
And now as we go into February, we have our Hobbsey and double negative moment with Amy Woo Silverman. Amy, is it what I do do in the market or is what matter now? What I avoid, what I do not choose to do.
You know, when you have these high dispersion environments, it really really matters what you what you do do. And you know, my favorite stat about this is you could have the same level of vix tom, you could have the same level s and P draw down, but in a high dispersion environment, if you made the right stock pick versus the wrong stock pick, you know, that outperformance differential could really be huge. It really matters if you're
in the right sector. Is it really matters if you're in the right stocks versus a high correlation environment where it's all macro, we're all riding one wave.
She's like the Queen of active management. I mean, that's what we're talking about here. Amy.
There seems to be you know, now we have a President Trump back in office. Here, the the headline risk seems to be back into this market. How do you suggest that investors hedge that? Should they hedge that, should they not worry about it? Should they look through it?
What do you say?
You know, look, I, first of all, I don't drive, but for some reason, I really like driving analogies and my volatility outlook was called watch out for potholes. And that's exactly what we're going to get. You know, when you have someone like Trump in power, it's we're just talking. There are these potholes you're going to get. It could be like in August fifth, it could be like a February twenty eighteen. You know, we got our fingers and
toes cross. But because of that, you know, I do think hedging makes sense, and simply because the positioning has gotten a lot more long after two consecutive twenty plus percent s a p years, right, there's just more to hedge. And we do see that starting to climb up in the skw in Tom's favorite word, the Kurtross, you are seeing that hedging demand rise much more than it has in the past two years.
So I guess maybe one of the more recent headlines risk has just been terrorists. Do your clients care about that? Do they think it's a risk. Do they kind of look through that and say, hey, it's just a negotiating tool. We're not going to worry about the economic impacts.
You know, it's so funny when we have these kind of macro client round tables. The most surprising kind of anecdote I can tell you is clients just say that they believe Trump will manage the stock market. And obviously there's no sort of fundamental analysis there. But I can't tell you how many times I've heard that that they just think the stock market will be okay, that this
is all just part of a negotiation tactic. And that's another reason why I think you don't see these volatiley potholes kind of priced out to these fat or left tails that you feel like they ought to be given the headlines that you know, that is anecdotally what investors keep telling me.
I'm reading Roger Altman as I try to get into the baseball season, one of his classic books from Here's Ago, It's a Tigers in nineteen sixty eight. Norm cash ol Kline amys Woo doesn't know what this is, but the answer is the baseball analogy, Amy Wood. It sort of like a batting average, thirty percent of the stocks go up in seventy percent don't really participate. Which way are we in that direction? Are we talking about fewer winners in more malaise or the other way around?
You know, I really think investors hope it's the other way around. And we've seen fits and starts of that, right So, you particularly after the deep seek news, there was this question of if Megacaptec's going to keep holding us up? And when you saw that rotation, when that Monday that news came out, where did we go to? We went to all the breadth widening trades that have had fits and starts since last year. But I do you think that's what investors still believe is their keystone
for this market being healthy. Of course, make a captech has to be, okay, Tom, it's just too much of a concentration not to be. But you know, small mid cap or what breadth widening traits that that's still what investors are really hoping for this market to be bowied up to this year.
Amy, where do you see value in this market? I think some people, you know, they're trying to get away a little bit from maybe the mag seven kind of concentration risk into this market looking for maybe some value outside of that.
Where do you guys see that?
So one thing that we've talked about as one of our pillars for hedging is because you have this index suppression, you know SMP hedging may not necessarily be your best bet. We have a lot of thematic baskets where we think that hedging differential makes a lot of sense. So you know, if you believe in I versus you don't believe in an A actually using those thematic basket differentials and hedges versus using your traditional tools.
Like we keep us out of suspense, I understand the New York Mets are the attic basket, particularly after bringing Alonzo on board. Give us an example, Amy with Silverman of a thematic basket.
So we have a lot of them, and it's it's sort of you know, it's very driven by clients. But a good example is what stocks would benefit from AI continuing. They don't necessarily have to be AI specific names. They could be AI adjacent names like utilities. And then we have the opposite, right, we have your traditional cyclical baskets. When you look at that differential TOM in the weighted average applied volatilities. To me, that gives you a much better sense of where risk is right now than just
purely using something like the SMP index. And we look at those differentials really closely because it gives us a sense much more of skew nowadays than just looking at the index level.
Okay, well, where's the value trap right now? On a quantitative basis when you look at the harmful you got to hedge? And if you want to avoid a value trap, how do you study that? And what do you avoid?
You know, I think what you avoid right now is getting trapped in the dispersion on that index level. So for instance, you know, if you are thinking about a hedge right now, you may actually be better off with idiosyncratic hedges because of where dispersion is than using something like S and P or something that is much more going to benefit if you get a pickup in correlation. To me, that's the difference right now in this market
that wasn't true in a higher correlation environment. To me, that's the trick right now when you're thinking about hedging your reports.
I mean, that's just what she just said there.
Let me translated, folks, She said, use the Boston Red Sox as an age.
That's what she said.
Amy, You know what, the stock markets adder near all time highs. Here are you seeing downside protection? Are folks hedging some of their gains?
Here?
They are? They? And you know, to me, it's really interesting, right because if you look the past two years, we were in this fomo yolo market, one was buying call options. But you know, the one distinction I'll tell you is it's really a dichotomy between what institutional investors are doing and what retail is doing. We're actually still continuing to see that fits to the right tail on the retail side, it's mostly the institutional investors that are now thinking more
about protecting their portfolio. And then that goes back to what I had said earlier about well, how do we protect our portfolios right now in a high dispersion environment. You know, do we use our traditional indices or do we think much more sector and stock specific, use those
thematic baskets. I don't know baseball at all, but I guess they're like the Boston Red Sox, but you know, be much more specific about that in an environment where you know, some things are going one way and some things are going the other way.
When you see the ten year yield come in, I mean it's more like a Francis Donald question. But when you see the yield space come in in the somewhat exuberance within the cacophony of political news, including in Canada any with Silverman, is this a bull market? And the answer is, I'm sorry, we're printing higher at seeames.
We certainly are. And you know, to me, it's one of those like it's going to be great until you get that volatility potfule, right, it's going to be great till you get that August fifth or that February twenty eighteen. But you know, the one thing I'll say about what Besson said about targeting that yield versus marketing rates is we have to really be careful Tom about watching the rates versus equity wall correlations changing, because that's a relationship
we've been counting on, just like bond equity correlations. But you know, when people start to kind of say we're thinking about this, then you have to watch that relationship because if that breaks, we see a lot of other things breaking to I.
Mean, nobody cares. All they want to know is skylt Caruso over People Magazine has Jason confirming Taylor Swift will be at the Super Bowl to support Travis. Okay, great, we have to remind everyone, Amy Wu Silverman dragged I say, dragged her daughter to see Taylor. So they said they're looking and screaming like Row six or something. I mean, Taylor,
Adam and all that. Give us a Taylor Swift update, Amy Wo Silverman, I mean, do you go with the Chiefs just because she's going to darken the door in New Orleans?
I guess.
Look, I know so little about football, like it's worse than what I know about baseball. But if that's where tem Taylor is, I guess that's where we are too, So go chief.
Okay, Amy Wo Silverman, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
RBC Capital Markets.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
David Rosenberg leads his note this morning with comments on the Secretary of Treasury. David just to begin with, can the Secretary of Treasury single handedly lower the ten year yield.
No US, there you go.
So what do you expect to hear from our secretary of the treasure What would you like to hear from the secretary?
Well, you know, I mean the assumption is that Besson has any real influence on the president. I think that we don't really know the answer to that. But we know that Donald Trump is going to do what he wants to do. So it really comes down to you know, what he says and ultimately what he does and what you think his objectives are. But to me, you know, the most important voice, by far is what the President
has to say. I don't think Scott Besson has the same degree of influence on Trump say that Bob Rubin may have had on.
Bill Clinton back in the day.
So, you know, tremendous respect for the Treasury secretary, but I question just how much influence he really has.
We're going to get to this with David Rosenberg. I did a panel with him up in Toronto. It was like riveting on the politics of Canada and the I've been reading the Globe and mail, David Shreeman and others up there.
I want to get to that in a moment.
You have a headline David Rosenberg's classic David, and it's the bond bullion barbell outpaces the equity market.
To me, that's fascinating.
Describe the bond bullion barbell.
Well, it's the barbell or the blended return between the two save havens, which are treasuries and gold, which combined have generated a total return of around six percent so far this year, the SMB one hundred total returns four
and a half percent. Just a reminder to people out there who have ice in their veins and the risk on momentum trade that's dominating the headlines that actually, when you look risk for reward, combined bonds and gold have actually been a better strategy year to date, still early on,
than the equity market's been. So that was basically the message is that if you're looking for alternatives, that particular strategy is actually a great stabilizer, not just a stabilizer, but also is adding alpha to your total portfolio.
David Tomorrow, here in the United States, we're going to get the non farm payrolls here.
What are you looking for?
Him?
How do you think the Fed's gonna kind of look at this data?
Well, it's a great question. I mean, the question is not just about non farm payrolls, but about just the data right now in general. How much influence are they going to have because the Fed is already lead down the gauntlet that nothing is happening in the first half of the year. And you remember, you go back a few months ago, we had a ton of rate cuts being priced in immediately, and that's not happening because of
all the Trump uncertainty. So I'm not so sure that tomorrow's number is going to have a big influence on the Fed. Of course, you know, the markets trade around it. We just had back to back months. You know the new Powell inflation indicators no longer you know the super core, you know the CPI X energy X shelter. It's the market based core pc the flavor, which he's discussed several times, and that metric has come in at zero point one
percent each of the past two months. And I think without all the Trump uncertainty, especially regarding tariffs, and you could argue also a fiscal policy, although right now fiscal policy is tightening on the spending side, so it's really mostly about tariffs. The FED would still be talking about cutting rates right now. When you're talking about what the trend in the market based core PC to flavor, you know, it's running now on a three and six month basis
right of the two percent target. And this has become Powell's favorite indicator. But they're actually signaling that they're on hold in definitely, and that's because of all the policy uncertainty that we have in front of us, and we have to wait for that clarity to come to the fore whenever it does come to the fore. But the Fed right now is signaling nothing's going on rate wise
until the summer. So tomorrow's number, I don't think is going to bear a lot unless you know, we're going to get revisions to the household survey and the payroll survey.
They'll probably show some convergence.
We're going to get, you know, the numbers coming off that new population count based on the immigration file or the previous boom and immigration. So the question for me is going to be the big number tomorrow Actually after we all look at the non farm payroll headline and the visions is what how did this affect the unemployment rate?
And so so far as that nudge is the unemployment rate up tells the fad, there's more slack than they thought, and that could you know, maybe bring marginally the date forward for when they might start cutting interest rates again.
But to me, nothing much beyond that.
David, I know in your note this morning, you talk about the US trade deficit and the big dent to US growth coming from the widening trade deficit. You're focused on the trade deficit, but I don't think the folks in Congress are How do you think about the US trade deficit?
Well, I'm looking more at at the components, Like we've had a big decline in exports in December and they're down precipitously through the past four months. And what that's telling me is one thing is about the impact of the super strong US dollar. People, I don't think you're recognizing just how much financial conditions in the US of
titan over the course of the past few months. And on top of that, it's also telling me that this how weak the global economy is right now that we're seeing the exports side really starting to not just accelerate but now contract, So of course it's going to lead to fourth quarter GDP downward revisions to what we already
saw from the commerce Department. But it's telling us something about the state of the global economy, both in Asia and Europe, that it's coming back to hit home in terms of the reduction and exports, and exports have a very powerful multiplier impact on the rest of the industrial sector. And you're right, nobody else is talking about it. So I thought, Okay, I guess I'll order that.
Mart David Rosenberg wh this week continue with Rosenberg Research, Toronto. Thrilled he's with us this morning. Futures up sixteen. They advance across the arc of the morning here nineteen minutes away from a market open. We welcome all of you on a commute across the nation, across Canada as well, and of course on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Paul and I really humbled by the statistics for January. They
let us into the statistics. I have to buy lunch, you know, yep, they forced me to buy lunch.
But you know that's fine, thods just fine.
There we were, David Rosenberg, you and I did this panel up in Toronto. I was shocked at what I perceived is the struggle of the Canadian spirit in Toronto. And I want you to explain the power right now, I've got CBC here with the Conservatives with forty three percent of the vote, the Liberals, whoever's going to replace Trudeau with twenty three percent of the vote. Is it like France where they get together in a coalition or is it just in our translation Republicans versus Democrats.
Well, another great question.
You know, it's a parliamentary system here, but it's not as it's not as fragmented as it.
Is over in Europe.
There's really three main parties and actually, for the past several years, because the Liberals didn't have a majority, the justin Trudeau Liberals had to team up with the Socialist and DP party to be able to well not have a majority, but have a coalition so that they wouldn't.
Be a non confidence vote.
A few months ago that coalition broke and now of course we're in a leadership race and Parliament is closed right now, and then we'll have it probably to life sometime I would expect during the spring.
So it's not as fragmented.
I don't think that unless we have a minority government, we're not going to have a coalition. If the polls are accurate right now, I'm not so sure that they are, because we don't know who's going to be leading a Liberal party. Mark Carney, being an outsider and being hailed of course, is having all these tremendous global economic and financial credentials, and he's not going to be tainted by the past number of years of failed Liberal policies. He'll
be a fresh face. I would expect that if we have this conversation a couple of months from now, Tom, that those polls are going to narrow win. If Carney wins the Liberal leadership race, which I think he probably will at this point. But if the election was held today based on those polls, it would be it would be a Brian mulroney like landslide majority of the Conservatives. But I wouldn't extrapolate that because Carney. If Carney emerges victorious, he's going to pack a very powerful punch.
Do you or anyone have any idea what happens? What is it twenty seven days? Like David, do you have any idea what happens in twenty seven days?
Well, I don't think the tariffs are going to be coming. I'm notwithstanding the quotes thirty day reprieve because we have to look at the facts that are presented in front of us, you know, Friday, last Friday at the White House, when asked if there was any chance that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be averted, he said, no, not a chance. They're a done deal. And then one phone call on Monday with Mexico and two in Canada. Next thing, you know, well, no, we've got a thirty
day reprieve. Remember he changed his mind as to when he was going to level the tariffs. He still has the power to do that. And so the question comes why, because what Mexico. Let's talk about Canada. What did Canada really do? Like, what did we do?
What?
Like fentadelts are like, what is that We'll have a few helicopters and drones looking over the border. The one point three billion dollars of more border security and enforcement justin Trude already pledged that quite a while ago. So you know what really changed, What really changed is that Canada Mexico moved a little bit. And now Donald Trump can once again claim a win to the US general public.
He got a win from Canada. It went from Mexico got you know, got a win from Colombia got a win from Panama, So he's just collecting all these wins. Of course, I think that they're inflated. But I think that the bottom light here is that it comes back to the initial question about about Scott Besson about you know, they want to get inflation down, they want to get the So answer the question, can he directly get the
ten year note yield down? Well, not directly, win directly, you know, forego all the tax stimulus and keep your focus on on the spending restraint right now, Well that's the help and anything you can.
Do to reduce inflation.
Inflation expectations will tell me that's not going to bring down to ten year treasury no yields. So certainly, you know he can have an influence from a fiscal policy standpoint. But yeah, ask you of the question why did Trump change his mind? And why do I think he was never going to take him seriously or literally? He campaigned on a lot of things, but the biggest campaign message was he was going to unwind the rest of all the Biden inflation. He was going to bring ghastly and
the grocery prices down. Didn't you know, well, how are you going to do that and then put a tariff on Mexico, which applies sixty percent of US food imports or thirty percent. Canada supply sixty percent of oil imports. There would be a massive inflation shock, even temporarily, and that would work against his objectives. So as I think about it, and I wasted too much time on the weekend worrying and writing about it that it was never going.
To happen, it didn't happen.
And I still have Canadians here are still on tenor hooks about what's going to happen on March first.
I'm telling them, I mean, he's not gonna do it, I guess.
So maybe he'll get more concessions and show that I got more wins.
But it's a to me basically.
You know, Justin Trudeau had a chance to actually call Trump's bluff, but he didn't. But no, I don't think I think that if they didn't as close to zero percent probability, I do not think the tariffs are coming into your country because it's.
Going to work against it. Right, It's going to work against Trump's legacy.
I gotta squeeze this in a one minute.
David, one of the reasons. I'm a Montreal Canadians fan. Is a gunpoint I was for We had a family family that we knew called the Great Britains, and we would go up to the Thousand Islands of two lifetimes ago David Rosenberg, and there was this relationship between America and Canada wrapped around the Saint Lawrence Seenway and Gananaqua up to Montreal.
Is that gone, Well, it's it's I wouldn't say it's gone, but you know, it's it's been impaired, at least for now. I really I don't like the fact that you know, we're booing you know, national anthems. I mean, this is more about you know, half the US population voted against Trump, Like, what are you booing against? It's really h It's really about the president. So be the president. But the reality is that you know, politics will compulx will go.
I wouldn't, you know.
Extrapolate this into the future, but right now, right right now, I got to say Canadians generally speaking, and of course I live in Toronto, they're feeling really hurt by what's happened.
And the thing is that.
I don't think the tariffs are going through. But the die has been cast and the damage is done by the way Tom not just here but in the US too because of the uncertainty that's being implemented into not just the financial markets, but in the economy. I think you're going to find the one thing that's going to be shelved in bulcan United States because just because of the specter and the threat with the tariff, it's going to be shelving capital spending.
Clients say, I'm out of time, Michael Barsa's get out the hook. David Rosenberg. That was wonderful. Thank you so much, Thank you, Thank you. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on his Canada.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
This in the Washington Post.
This time the anti Trump resistance is in the courts, not in the streets. For both of you supporting the president and those upset at the president. Wendy Schiller with his now professor at Brown University. The subtitle Professor Schiller is a president issues orders that some say disregard the law. A hap hazard group of opponents is filing lawsuits. Where is the judiciary professor Schiller?
Well, good morning, Tom, Good morning, Paul and Lisa. You know, did you shary?
We have to wait and see which judiciary is We know venue shopping, which is the term that describes people who are interested in getting a particular ruling from the federal courts, find a plaintiff in particular jurisdictions to match what the ruling is that they want. So the ninth certain California, is thought to be somewhat liberal.
The fifth Circuit that deals.
With Texas, mostly in Oklahoma and Louisiana, is thought to be quite conservative.
So those are appeals court circuits.
You start in the district courts and you really venue shop to see can you get a judge.
We had a ruling from a Rhode Island judge that will.
Issue a ruling that at least will give an injunction or some time for you to mobilize other forces in the American political system.
So I got somebody in Bethesda listening to ninety ninety one FM. Good morning, Nathan Hager his food courts better than our Yeah, I don't know how that sounds.
Very good, Wendy.
That person in Bethesda now looking at Doze or you know, name the crisis. I guess they're going after the FAA tomorrow whatever, whatever the crisis is. How long do they wait for the judiciary, whether Texas or California to show up.
Well, they've already showed up, right, I mean, they've already been in junctions against the Birthright Executive Order for example, most recently the spending the freeze on the money that was spent. There already are temporary injunctions, but they're temporary. They have to really go to court and get them more firm if they want to do any stalling or blocking.
And so it's going to crawl through the courts.
And the question is does the trumpministration pay attention to the federal courts?
Will they actually abide by federal rulings?
You know, in the past, we've had state governors that said no to federal government. It's unusual to have the federal government, the executi branch say no to the federal courts. That's coming and I think that's something we haven't seen before, and the impact of all these or Tom, we just simply don't know. I mean, first of all the issues orders, then he takes it back or issues orders, and then
he qualifies. So in terms of the Trump administration, how much is real firing federal employees seems to be quite real. The impact that the average American will feel, that's gonna take a while.
So, Wendy the news flow. Not surprisingly, he continues to be pretty darn steady coming out of Washington, DC. What's the feeling about this Gaza news over the past a couple of days. Was it an off the cuff the remark? Was it a serious policy initiative? What are you hearing from your sources?
I can only, as I always do, speculate, But it is so in keeping with Donald Trump.
He sees a beautiful property. I mean, it's on the water, it's beautiful, the weather's great.
He literally, i think, perceives this as a good deal, A good deal for Palestinians, A good deal unless they are forcibly removed, obviously.
Which would not be a good deal.
But he's saying, nothing's ever stuck, and if you do, you don't have economic livelihood.
You can't survive, and that is true. So you know, not every single thing Donald Trump says is untrue.
We don't have any right to take it over at all, buyers, sell, or displace anybody. But when you think about his mindset, it's totally in keeping with Donald Trump's mindset to solve the problem through a business deal.
Was this the way Andrew Jackson was.
Andrew Jackson didn't have nearly as many layers of government despite Jefferson's effort to build a bureaucracy.
And he was a general. I mean, you know this story.
You know very well about Eisenhower, how frustrated he was as president of the United States because he had been, you know, the leader of the European theater in World War Two. He was a general and he would say things and they wouldn't get done. Trump has a general's mentality in that sense, and he wants things done. That's
why he's letting us run the way he is. But when you can't fly because that's not working, when your water is no longer clean because that's not working, then we have to see whether there's any public reaction.
So, Wendy, I guess one of the more nuts and bolts things coming out of Washington is they need to get a budget strategy going here. There's a lot of legislation that's kind of cueued up over the next several months. Do we have any idea how this will play out? Is a Trump administration, do they have a game plan for some of this legislation and some of this budgetary issues.
This is a jogging between the House and the Senate Visa v.
Trump.
The Senate promises reconciliation, which means that you don't get filibustered. That means you can guarantee that you will get a budget through and the tax cut bill through, just as Obama used it for the Affordable Care Act.
You can promise that to Trump.
So in the game of delivering, John Thune, the Senate majority leader Republican, can deliver, whereas Mike Johnson does not have the votes to deliver the same budget because the very far right fiscal hawks want deeper cuts that the.
Senate won't take. So Fune is saying, listen, side with.
Us, put pressure on the House because our people won't take those cuts, and then you've got a government that will shut down. Here's the thing to watch for. Democrat strategy maybe to shut down the government. We're just throwing it out there, but I'm just saying, if you're going to stop this juggernaut of firing people and shutting things down, shut the government down.
So under your quaffin launch at Tammany Hall Pub and Parlor in Providence, there's like four Republicans brown that's where they go to lunch. So, Professor Schiller, you're the Republicans the conservatives at Tammany Hall Pub and Parlor, and they ask you, when has mister Musk shown the door? How do you frame that discussion, that dialogue right now about this absolutely original thing that is doge.
Again, the same mantra over and over again.
When people who live in red leaning states feel the impact severely from some of the lack of government.
Oversight, the lack of government inspection.
We've got a bird flu that seems to be persistent, that's affecting now Nevada. You know, you need the federal to come in and have USDA, you need CDC, you need these entities.
And when they aren't there and nobody is picking up the phone and you can't get help, sooner or later you will turn on the federal government. In turn on Donald Trump.
And if that happens and his ratings go down, his full numbers have already gone down a little bit since he was elected, then he'll look to Musk and he'll conveniently probably blame Elon Musk and show them the door.
But for a lot of people, that may take too long for them.
To sort of escape any kind of injury or harm. So we'll have to see you can make the federal brok more efficient. I think there's a reasonable argument to make, but the way that they're doing it maybe too abrupt.
And what you say, and there are more than four Republicans at Brown, I will.
Just tell you, thank you, we'll go We'll go wild today ten Wendy just on doge In, mister Musk, we get forty thousand people. I guess they's show on the door in September. I don't know what's your timeline on Elon Musk. Do you haven't your head like this guy's got through the weekend? Does this guy got through March? Does this guy got to the next test earnings? What's the shiller timeline on mister Musk?
Well, just one simple thing.
A lot of federal grants run on a January schedule and a July schedule, So now you're dealing with the people who did apply in January or we're going to and now you're thinking about July. And as that money freezes up, it's hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. People are going to feel it all over the country in their hospital systems in particular.
So I think that's I'm looking at JUNI or July in.
Terms of impact. You know, all these changes, what are the impact? And now you're gonna have Robert F. Kennedy most likely getting through at HHS. That's another huge feeder of money from the federal government to individuals and institutions. When that money gets blocked, you know, services may not be able to be provided, and then people are going to feel It's the same scenario as Nu Gingrid in nineteen ninety five. He was really run high January to July and then things fell off the.
Right huge insight.
That's what we love having Professor Schiller on.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
So daily look at the front pages that Lisa Matteo report. She's far beyond driven.
Lisa, what do you have?
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The Carls Junior hangover Burger.
Carl's Junior bringing the sexy advertising back bikinis and burgers. You remember Paris Hilton, right, Kim Kardashian, they started this whole commercial trend. Now it's influencer alex Earl. Okay, for those of you who are watching YouTube, you can see the commercial right now.
There you go.
But the experts are saying that it shows the shift. Yes, there it is. Remember remember Paris Hilt. Oh my, see, no one's paying attention to.
Lisa by the only planet that doesn't know is the rock and a commercial.
That's all I want, No, no.
But what they're saying is that they're showing. They're saying that it's kind of the country feeling the new feeling under the new administration. That's what they're saying. So the new administration is saying going back to old ways, and this carls Junior going back to old ways.
That you to commercial.
Can I just suggest maybe it will be a pleasant relief for all from what everybody's going through on a day to day basis. Okay, get the Sunday and it's actually like football.
A good football game.
You know who else is doing Open AI is actually debuting a commercial at the Super Bowl that's going to the Wall Street journals.
So stay tuned for that.
Sports books.
Okay, So they want to cash in on the Taylor Swift fever at the Super Bowl, but it's not that easy. So novelty prop bets you know what I'm talking about, right, super Bowl centering on Taylor Swift, like Will Travis Kelsey proposed to Taylor Swift on the field, like those kind of bets. Okay, but they're on unregulated sites so the real guys can't get to it. But they're doing something different. So Draft Kings is coming up, with a quick way.
They're called Swifty specials. So these kind of bets so prop bets that are named after Swift songs. So for example, you have the shake it Off bet right, okay, which has the Philadelphia Eagles scoring first and Chiefs to win. And then you have the Mine Bets, which is Swift's boyfriend Kelsey getting eighty seven or more receiving yards and scoring more one and more touchdowns.
You see.
So they're kind of using it that way in order to get it to be allowed either set.
So the answer is that the Eagles win. It's a Champagne problems betright.
That's one of her sons, exactly. Think I knew that.
Next, okay, Moms and dads, I know I'm having trouble keeping up with the lingo that the kids are coming up with. It's fast and furious. The journal saying it's because of social media. So for example, remember Riz that was like the hot word. It's old, it's old read yes, okay, So you have to get to the new words like betamaxing, giat, gigachad, battie. Have you heard any of these? Sigma?
Okay?
So Tom, if your daughter calls you omega like you're so Omega, that's a bad thing. That's just just letting you know.
So if it comes up at the dinner table, no.
Go try dell, don't look I co try deal and it didn't work.
Omega is like the lowest rate the.
Today.
Yes, yes, get squeeze one.
And that's also AM radio could get a second wind.
We're very excited about this.
Okay, objections from EV manufacturers, you remember that, right, but biparts in legislation, advancing again in the Senate, so it could come back and get a second wind again.
The newspaper is Lisa Matteo. Thank you so much.
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