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He is absolutely unique as a president, president, former president, governor, vice chairman and chairman of the FED, and that no one in the multiple years I've been covering it synthesized Wall Street business.
And economics like Robert Kaplan. He was at the Dallas FED with a.
Real sense of the border political economics, the heritage of the Dallas Fed around Robert McTeer and the Georgia School, their research capabilities, and were thrilled he could join us this morning for an extended conversation. It's been way too long, Robert. Let me cut to the chase, the definitive series which Jerome Powell speaks of.
Is the Dallas trim mean?
You are expert on that with your research staff. Does the Dallas trim mean for Robert Kaplan? Does it indicate a vector of disinflation or a new worry back to the time of say Wayne Angel in a higher inflation rate.
It probably suggests inflation is a new word sticky, meaning it's kind of going sideways.
And we're not making improvement.
And I would guess that if prices edge up a little bit, it's going to be more supply side issues from here than demand side issues.
What I'm looking at, Robert Kaplan, is the ambiguity, the swirl, if you will, of American economics with our politics is a sum total of what our listeners and viewers understand on this Friday. Is it towards a depressed real GDP because of policy uncertainty?
Yeah, So there are five big structural changes going on that's very unusual and'll just tick off. We're restructuring the way we do fiscal spending and it's going to have some jarring effect, but we're going to have less fiscal spending. If they succeed, that would tend to lower growth. We're going to do a regulatory review in every industry to try to produce more productivity growth that actually might be helpful.
There's going to be an effort to control the workforce. Obviously, no more people coming in across the border entering the workforce, and we're going to deport that tends to lower growth unless we have an effort to revitalize legal immigration, and then we're going to try to restructured the energy ecosystem in this country to lower costs.
That's probably helpful.
And then the last thing is the tariffs, and the tariffs have a price effect. But I would guess these tariffs and the uncertainty with them on margin lower growth. So you've got a bunch of cross currents, and I would guess the net of it all is I would guess, yeah, growth is probably slowing a little bit right now. And the uncertainty as well as when you cut government spending and you reduce workforce growth or you reduce the growth
of it, you know, you you limit GDP growth. The effort is I don't know if that's that concerning, and that I think the effort of this administration is to try to create more organic, more private sector growth, less government led growth, so quote unquote healthier growth, but top line growth probably is going to be somewhat weaker, I would guess, so.
Robert, giving that back in the five big structural changes that you just outlined, if I'm the Federal Reserve, do I just sit on the sidelines and kind of let it all play out because the market is kind of suggesting that the Fed's not going to do a lot this year.
Yeah, yeah, I think the right thing.
Yeah, the FED is quietly drifting stage left, and that's okay. The center stage is structural changes, executive branch changes away from the FED, and in a period like this, I think the wisest thing the FED could do, yes is be comfortable standing pat be careful about what they say, because I think commenting too definitively on how these structural changes are going to play out, It's too early to do it.
Tariffs is a good example.
We don't even know what the tariffs are going to be, and so yeah, I think the FED will do less. I think that's fine, and I think Jay pals Can communication on that has been good recently, where he's made clear we're in no.
Hurry and people should be prepared.
Their focus should be more on what's going on at the executive branch. And second comment I'd make, if there's a rate I'm focused on, I'm much more focused on the ten year treasury rate than i am the FED funds rate.
It interesting. So, Robert, as we sit back here, and we think about the economic backdrop here, how do you view the consumer right here? I mean, we've heard about and talked about and noticed in the data this K shaped economy.
How do you think about the consumer? There's two big groups.
It's confusing because there's two big groups. Probably unlike maybe anything I've seen in my career.
There's one group.
That's sixty five that's rough numbers, sixty five seventy million workers that make fifty five grand a year or less, and they are struggling to make ends meet. They've lost at least twenty five percent purchasing power. They don't tend to own financial assets. That group is spending, but they're watching every dollar they're going to McDonald's and they're agonizing over even McDonald's trading down. That's sixty five to seventy
million workers and consumers. There's another sixty five to seventy million consumers fifty five and older, own their home, have a fixed rate mortgage, have financial assets, and this recent period has been pretty good. Yes, there's infliction, but their financial appreciation their financial assets is offset it.
And because their.
Mortgage is fixed, they're really not that sensitive to higher rates, and they are spending much more aggressive. I guess aggressively on services and other products. And that's why when you see corporate earnings reports, it's confusing. Which of these two groups are you serving. If you're serving that first group, you're likely seeing a much more challenging business. If you're serving the second group, you know business looks better to you.
Robert Kaplan with us, of course, the vice chairman of Goldman Sachs, with farm Wearer's relationship with the Dallas Fed. All sorts of academics through the year at his Harvard were thrill these with us, and we said good morning to you on YouTube in your home, at your office, all of Golden Sacks tuned in on YouTube. I mean, you know that's happening right now. Robert Caplan, I got in the New Foreign Affairs last night. It's a very
strong issue, folks in these tumultuous times. Marianna Mazakata, who Robert Caplan is not on the same page with the esteemed left economist, huge economic history student Marianna Mazacato with a wonderful essay on where we need to go. And Robert Caplan, I'm sure you don't agree with all that
Professor Mazacata wrote up in The New Foreign Affairs. But the one thing she talked about, you're the most qualified person I know, is the financialization that we've seen in the last ten, twenty, even thirty years, even before the Great Financial Crisis. How do you explain the financialization of the American culture and the winners you just described in the millions of losers out there that are a reality.
Well, so I'll put it. I'll put it this way. And you've heard me talk about this before.
I listen.
I work on an a firm now, and we run a business, and I've run other businesses. Human capital is the most important asset you have. And that's true for the United States. It's true for the state of Texas and so on. And early childhood literacy, secondary education, skills training, a digital divide, allowing people to be more productive. That is key to a growing middle class in building the economy.
And what we're seeing a little bit in the last numberumber of years is a divergence financially between that I just mentioned those two groups. Working people that don't take government money have probably been employed, done everything right their whole career, but they don't have a lot of savings.
They may not own their home, and they're reading in the newspaper about another group of people out there who are rising by bounds in terms of their financial wealth and financial assets, and it seems like capitalism isn't quite working for them. And I think education is one of the vehicles to try to address this. But one of the issues with decelerating workforce growth is education tends to be paid for at the state level and city level.
If you're a growing city or state, you got the money to spend on the getting affordable childcare, full day versus half day, pre.
K, all these critical things.
But if you're in a state which is probably forty plus states whose populations.
Are flat to down, you may not have the money.
And then philanthropy, which I'm actively involved in, can help pick up the slack. But I think we should be focusing more on our human capital and a little less on financial end and.
Paul, that's the common ground between Mazocato and Kapitlin, no question about that.
The individual education effort. Robert.
I know in your role as vice chairman of Golden Sacks, who speak to CEOs around the world, what is their view of I don't know the ability to take risk to maybe think about M and A as a growth scenario. Where are they in terms of how they feel about their business and their ability to take risk over the next couple of years.
Okay, So on the positive side, I think the prospect of a more balanced regulatory environment, more cost benefit analysis, more in their words, more sensible regulation.
They're okay with tough regulation.
But there has to be a rationale for it. I think they're excited about that. On the other hand, they're dealing with another They're dealing with the trade uncertainty. And if you're going to domicile more manufacturing, for example in the United States, you really need the corridor of Mexico
and Canada for integrated supply chains and logistics. And when they see threat of tariffs on for example Mexico, which they hope doesn't happen, which could undermine logistics and supply chains, it gives them pause and makes them want to just slow down a little bit and be more careful. And the other big thing is AI and technology. Now, we've had technology innovation for years, but if you're a CEO right now, you've got to spend on AI in your business.
You're not sure which use cases will work and which won't,
but you got to do it. And so I think you're going to see though a lot of merger activity by companies who feel that, boy, if we're going to take share in the years ahead, if we're going to grow in the years ahead, we're more likely to have to take share, and we're gonna have to size and scale, and the ability to ford AI investment is more important than its ever and I think you're going to see a desire for many companies bigger to try to deal with that.
I gotta squeeze this in too important.
There seems to be another threat happens every two, three, five years. It's not specific to mister Trump on FED independence. How does the institution of the Fed, mister Kaplan protect itself and stay independent versus the McChesney Martin challenges decades ago.
Yeah.
So the thing that's always challenging at the FED, and this isn't new, is regulatory provisory policy at the FED is not politically independent and has not been politic independent. The tilt of it changes, whether it's Obama to Trump, then back to Biden, now back to Trump, and that you'll see on setting the FED funds rate, though, and the stance of monetary policy. I think it's critical of this country that stay politically independent. Now the president can
jawbone and pressure and that's not new. May be more intense right now, and the FED will do its job and should to try to extent. They can't ignore that make decisions only. The biggest threat to the FED, I actually think sometimes is not from outside. Then you have to be careful as a governor or a president. Don't try to say things publicly you think might go over better, or worry about the pressure.
Just do what you think is right.
And as long as they manage themselves, I think they'll through this in an independent way.
Out of time. Robert Kaplan. Next time you're on, We're doing a complete hour on do we need the docks?
Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed, always in forever and now vice chairman of his Goldman Sacks.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube right.
Now on oil.
It has been too long, and she is definitive on Saudi inc. As we have the joy in the honor of speaking with Edward Morris a few days ago, now in honor to speak with Ellen Wald. Ellen, what does the Saudi royalty want besides one hundred dollars barrel oil? What's their desire? Given the new hydrocarbon politics of Washington.
You know, it's interesting right now it seems like they really want to broker peace between Russia, Ukraine and the US or Europe. They're really pushing themselves as these you know, kind of neutral peace brokers. Of course, it isn't all so altruistic here, because with an end to Russia Ukraine hostilities could come some very interesting developments from the oil market, and you can be sure that the Saudis are all about that.
Ellen, Just give us with some hindsight here, with three years into this wark where and the sanctions associated with that? Where does the Russian oil? Where has it gone? How does it get into the marketplace these days?
Yeah, that's that's a really great question, because it used to go all over the place, and it's.
Still it still goes.
It just really mostly goes to two places. Now goes to China and goes to India. India is just open this massive, huge market for Russian crude oil. And what's so fascinating about it is their refineries have been benefiting immensely from cheap Russian crude. They buy a lot of it, and they process it and they make a lot of diesel, and then they go ahead and they sell it to Europe.
And Europe is more than happy to buy this. I kind of like call it laundered Russian crude because they know where it comes from.
They know that it's Russian crude. But as long as you know the origin of the diesel.
That they're using, says India and not Russia, they're more than happy to buy it and keep their their you know, supplies up and from this cheap Russian oil.
I took out a chart in Bloomberg today Ellen Wild It's an inflation adjusted Saudi light and essentially on an inflation basis is a generalization the price of a barrel of oils where.
It was forty years ago.
Do we overplay in the media, Do we overplay in our own minds, all of us, the listeners and viewers, the importanttons of oil. Has it become inconsequential to the public because of its cheapness.
So that's that's a really good, good question.
I think that we do overplay the importance of oil in some respects. I know, we overplay it in when we look at say the Saudi budget. So you know, every year the IMF comes out with these these you know stats and say, oh, the Saudis need x price or a barrel of oil to cover their budget. And the fact is that that is a meaningless statement because
that's not how it works in Saudi Arabia. You know, a ramco sells oil and then a ramco you know, makes money, and then they the Saudi government gets uh you know, they get royalties, they get rents, they get dividends. Now they get you know, it's not just that they don't just get the money from the barrel. There's a lot more that goes into it, and so things are a lot more complicated now.
Of course, if you look even farther back than forty years ago, you know, when oil was like to to you know, something.
A barrel, and you realize that in you know, what what Opek was fighting for in the nineteen seventies was like to increase it to you know, a price of like six something, and that was considered obscene.
You know, the request was considered absolutely obscene, you know, and we.
Think about that now and it seems rather ridiculous. But you know, when you do consider inflation and you do consider what we're using oil now, I mean, look, natural gas is becoming more expensive such that we're seeing a lot of switching over to gas oil interesting from natural gas right now, which is not good for the environment to begin with.
But it's you know, so oil is still very very much a very important and I would.
Probably say maybe the key role in uh, you know, in terms of the hydrocarbrid spectrum.
Today, I get ten seconds. When do we get a new book? It's all anybody?
Oh, that's a good question.
Not not anytime soon, you know, thinking maybe I should write a TV script considering how successful Land went.
There you go. Would you like to weigh in on this? Joe Tucker can wait?
Oh, I know everything about bring the land, man. I'll tell you what that Getting oil out of a ground that is serious business.
That's not an easy job. That's my deal.
Idiots like Paul Sweeney and Tom Kane. The closest I've done is a gas station.
It was forty four cents a gallon, and I worked at a gas station, so it's not easy.
I'm ready to be a Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. Now that's how smart I am.
Paul Sweeney, oil expert Ellen wald D, thank you, senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, the author of Saudi That Life.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty out of the.
University of Michigan, he has crafted out the most important job in tech journalism.
Lukas Shaw, I mean it's sort of close. I mean, you know, I mean loses if they're on fire. Mark Kerman joins us in studio here in New York on his ownership of the Apple story.
Mark where I am on this going back to like I was one of the first people to see Lisa and the failure of Lisa and a lot of the early Max stuff is to me always in forever, what the media misses and you don't miss it is chips. I don't want to hear about Tim Cook. I don't want to hear about stupid videos, launch and stuff.
I'm gonna butcher the name. Who is Johnny Shrugie?
Who's going to give us the A eighteen A nineteen chip this fall in the new Apple iPhone.
Well, first of all, Tim, you did not butcher the name? That is right?
I can't close.
No, no, you got it right. It's Johnny Srugie.
Okay, nice, you were spot on as always once a year. Sugie is probably the most important executive at Apple other than Tim Cook. I agree about why at this point, with so much commoditization in the technology industry, Apple's unique differentiator that makes their products better.
Than the rest is their chips.
Thank you.
It allows them to differentiate the designs. They can have thinner form factors, better power efficiency, unique components that all enable new features. For instance, the artificial intelligence capabilities that everyone is talking about today. That support started to be built into their chips in twenty seventeen.
Okay, I know you're not in speaking terms of say Uber bowl like dan ives, but if you add a cup of coffee with Dan Eves at Webbush and with your journalistic abilities. Is the chip is there a constraint or a limit to it on a mathematical basis? Is Johnny Strujie and the rest are they going to get to a limit where they can't get better in the stock levels or goes down?
Well, I think in terms of performance you've seen drop. There was a time ten eleven years ago where you were getting one hundred percent, seventy five percent, fifty percent, even twenty five percent year over year performance agains. That's not the case anymore. At most you're getting ten to
fifteen percent performance gains. And that's due to a combination of the engineering and Apple, but also their secret sauce, which is their deep partnership with TSMC, which year after year is able to improve their both production capacity and their production technology.
And Bok.
My book of the year was Chipwark. It's fabulous book about the history semiconductors. If you're at three nanometers, don't you have a constraint towards two nanimeters.
Well, you're going to get to two nanimeters. Eventually you're going to get to one nanometer, half a nanometer and then even smaller than that. These production technologies are only going to improve. The bottleneck, however, is that they need to do two things at once. Right now they need to walk and chew gum. They need to improve that production technology. But at the same time, they're in the middle of a move from bringing chip production out of time one to other places.
Soon you're going to.
See Apple at full steam at a plant in Arizona. They're going to eventually work on some plants in Europe. So you're talking about having to do two things at once, make your production technology better and move it outside of Taiwan because they need the additional production capacity. But there are real concerns geopolitically in terms of world affairs, in terms of potential world disasters. Why would we put all
of our chips in one location. If Taiwan goes down, Apple goes down so to speak, for a long time.
So that needs to be resolved.
And our knew digital distribution on YouTube.
Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts with us an extended conversation our chief correspondent Apple and Technology Mark German Paul Hey Mark.
A lot of folks feel like with China, maybe not the growth story for Apple that it used to be that the company really needs to look to India in a bigger way and they need a lower cost phone arguably to do that.
Is this sixteen E?
Is that the phone that they introduced this week, Is that maybe something that could be really competitive in a market like India.
First of all, I want to add to what you said about China. So China, You're right, it's no longer a growth story, but it's I would say a decline story at this point. Right we saw sales fall eleven percent on an annual basis. They're about eight billion dollars less a quarter in revenue than they were just a couple of years ago.
Wow, in that region.
And this when Tim Cook became CEO, replacing Steve Jobs in twenty eleven, that was really the number one priority was making things work in China. In his first few years there, there was some real innovation when it came
to the iPhone. They brought the bigger iPhone six and six plus to China just a few years after he became CEO, and at the same time he himself struck a deal with China Mobile, biggest carrier in China, so they had the twofold they had that fablet sized device that everyone loves, right in addition to access to more consumers than they ever had before, and so that was like a lightning bowl for them. But since then they've sort of petered out of little bit there. India is
very important. They believe they have very small market share there, it's sub five percent. The way they see it is, they have ninety five percent left to go after, right, and I think they're slowly growing there, but they are going to gain some steam there. Unfortunately, to your point the iPhone sixteen e. With that device, they've abandoned the budget market, but there are some little tricks and levers they can pull. So you're going to have that six
hundred dollars starting price for the iPhone sixteen eight. But what I think you're going to see is a bigger push into clearance phones, so the older phones, refurbished phones, and some of the older models that they don't advertise on their website that they're going to keep pushing through resellers in India. We may not hear about it here in the States or in Europe, but in India they're going to be selling those things through resellers.
So how does the company view China. Is this a they're managing a declining business or is this something that they think they can salvage bird Potentially.
I think the optimists in the company believe that they can salvag it.
It's a real problem for them.
You have the slowed sales in China, you have the current tariffs situations, you have the geopolitical concerns, and oh, by the way, at the same time that thirty years we spent building up the world's biggest supply chain, the most intricate supply chain, entirely based or not entirely based, heavily based in China, by the way, we're in the middle of moving that to more places US, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia.
What's the timeframe for that for exact Like again, you said thirty years to build up that supply chain that really was centered around China. Is it a similar timeframe to try to decouple itself from China?
Yes, I mean that took a long time to build, and so they've been working on decoupling themselves from China, starting already, you know, six seven years ago, right even eight years ago, towards the beginning of the Trump administration, COVID gave it increased prominence in importance, but this is going to take a while. They've really moved the needle in terms of moving out of China, and by the way, I don't expect them to fully move out of China.
This is about augmenting and growing. So if they think they're going to double their user base in thirty years, you need more capacity. They've probably filled up what they can do in China and they need other places to build.
The rest when the release comes out. You've been very good about this, but the rest of the streets touchy feely soft questions about product I go log the growth of services and iPhone revenue and services is growing so steady and so large, it's literally back to just pre pandemic iPhone revenue. Do you in your reporting see a true persistency of services growth to justify the bulk case?
Yes, you have to ask yourself, Tom, what would the case be for Apple? How it investors feel about Apple? What would be saying about Apple if it wasn't for the service's story?
Right now? They knew about a decade ago.
That they needed to augment their device sales with a new growth story, and that is services Apple TV Plus. I think there's an opportunity as early as next year or the year after to release an ad supported version. And I'm not saying I'm the biggest span of the content on Apple tv Plus, but they have a lot of fans, and they have some absolutely terrific shows, and I think they're making some money on the ten dollars
per month subscription. But once they do an advertising model and get people hooked to more great shows, I think that's going to be the real money maker for them, and that's ads. I think ads is sort of the secret lever they can pull.
I actually wrote a few days.
Ago that they're seriously considering bringing ads to Apple Maps. Apple Maps is one of the most used apps on the iPhone ecosystem. Don't forget two billion plus device is strong there, So I think there's opportunities putting ads in some places that could be a nice little growth story for them.
Have we moved past the period where if you're an investor, you're just an Apple observer, it's about the next product launch, what's going to changing, what's be the next new thing. Have we kind of moved past that? Is that we are kind of where we are, and now we need to think about other areas of growth.
I think investors need to move past that. I'm not moved past it because I always will still see Apple as the company that brings out major new products and revolutionizes things. But I think with the Vision pro and the AI push has showed us that they're not able right now, or they don't have that magic formula to bring out that major hit that is a game changer, like the iPhone was, the iPad was, the Apple Watch.
Was to some extent.
And so this is a company that instead of coming out with a new hundred billion dollars a year device, they need to come out with a bunch of smaller bets that add up to the revenue that would come from a bigger bet.
So let me give you a few of those, give me a few.
Okay, Robotics, that's going to be a big endeavor. Tabletop robot.
Right, it's a top robot.
Yes, So it's a smart home hub, a big iPad like display on a robotic arm that moves around on your desk and has a personality. Right, it's like a companion in your works.
Can you get the seventeen year old to empty the dishwasher.
Okay, well you may not be able to get your seventeen year old tempty the dishwasher, but you may one day be able to get an Apple humanoid robot tempty or dishwasher. And the humanoid is so interesting. I know it sounds ridiculous, but this is where the industry is going. Meta is starting a multi billion dollar division as of last week to develop humanoid technology. They want to be the Intel Qualcom Android of the robotics industry. I'm telling you this is the next big thing.
Okay, but you told you and others told us about the stupid Goggle thing that went down in flames.
What's what's a human robot?
I'm not saying it's not going to go down in flames.
I'm saying it's coming.
Okay, fair, fair, nice distinction.
Mark German continues with us, thrilled to have him in our New York studios, usually a sconced on the Left coast. Mark Herman, of course driving all of our Apple coverage and definitive around the world for his voice on Apple News. Of course, very quiet about his sources, as he should be. I want to go to what nobody ever talks about anymore. I remember, like you know, forget about the way back Max, but I remember being an absolute awe of sixteen megabytes RAM. We got M four. I guess I got M five
coming now. I got in my music thing at home. I got a big Mac Pro sixteen. You know, the thing's got bells and whistles on it. Do computers still matter to them and do they want to put out a cutting edge commuter computer still for Creative America, Creative Globe.
Oh absolutely. I think that they were more than think. They were teetering on the Mac about a decade ago. There was a multi year periodfare twenty fifteen twenty eighteen where they weren't really coming out with redesigned computers. They weren't doing frequent updates, and the problem was twofold one. They believed maybe too heavily in the iPad right, the iPad of the future. But then Intel they were really a laggard, not doing a great job with their chips,
not bringing the performance gains Apple wanted. And then you compared the performance of phones and tablets compared to what you're getting from the Mac. In terms of year of year efficiency improvements. They were in different worlds, but Apple moving to its own silicon. You mentioned Johnny's RUGI five years ago in the Mac that really changed everything for them.
It had sales skyrocket.
You know last quarter was n well, yes, well, in the last quarter it was about fifteen percent year of a year ago for the Mac. And so that was very significant. And so I think they now have the resources and the confidence to even double down on the Mac. So what I think you're going to see, Well, you're going to see new pro machines this year.
Creatives.
You talk about creatives, you'll get your new Mac Pro. You'll get in your new Mac studio with the M four, M five. They've now moved the MacBook program.
You're talking to missus Keane right now, keep it up.
Yeah, yeah, the MacPro.
Yes, Tom needs his new M five or M four Mac Pro. The iMac will get another update. They've moved the MacBook Pro, which is not their most popular machine, but a really hot seller and really importance. What I use, it's what I think a lot of people here use, a lot of people in college and schools use. They've moved that to an annual cycle every November, like clockwork. You're getting a new MacBook Pro, just like you get a new iPhone every year. So that is a really
big deal and I think is really important. MacBook Air that's the most popular mac Okay, last updated.
A year ago. Here's a scoop for your show.
Apple's preparing to put the new MacBook Air M four on sale in March, so next month, in just a few weeks from now. They've started preparations, they've started sending materials to their retail stores, they've ramped up production, and they're nearly ready to go on the M four thirteen inch and fifteen inch MacBook Air, your most popular machine, just in a few weeks from now.
One hundred and fifty thousand employees, Is this still the cool place to work?
If you're in this big question?
Well, good question.
I'll answer that in a second.
But I think the way that I would see it is you're working at a place where you're impacting two billion plus consumers.
Yeah, that's a good way to think about it.
Yeah, and you're influencing the products that you probably use on a daily basis. So I think that's at least what the company he sells to their employees in terms of like the cool stuff in order to keep engineers at a company who've been there twenty thirty years like still like interested, you need to give him some moonshot
since so the vision pro was a moonshot. Interesting self driving car was a moonshot, And so they probably kept around people at Apple who wanted to leave them quite a bit longer just by throwing them on these new projects and just pushing them from new moonshot to new moonshots, new special project group, the new special project group, instead of having him, you know, flee to Google or Meta.
Yeah.
Tim Cook Auburn, nineteen eighty two, just get that in there for Duke. Who's after Tim Cook? I mean we were fixated by Iiger in Disney. I don't see people fixated about who's after Tim Cook?
Should we?
You're seeing one person right now who's fixated on who's after Tim Cook? Because I think it's a fascinating story. He's been there around three decades at this point, he's been in the job since twenty eleven. He's going to be pushing sixty five next year. But then you look, you look at this, right, you have Jamie Diamond, he's in his late sixties.
Right, You've got Iiger, who's.
In his almost going to be in his mid seventies. You know, there's a universe that Tim Cook could stick around at Apple for a ball Biger like ten here. Now you know Iiger took a few Michael Jordan like breaks, you know, in between, so that's a little bit unique. I think Cook's got you know, three to seven years there left in the tank. Now you look at Apple's executive team. Here's the problem. They're all in their mid sixties, are going to be in their mid sixties, late sixties by the.
Time Cook retires.
Right, You've only got one person on that executive team who has the ability to step in there in five to seven years be CEO and stick in the role for a decade. That is mister John Turnas, the senior vice president hardware Engineering. He's in charge of the device's business, right, He's not an operations guy. Maybe he's not a business guy or design guy, but he's the one in charge of their money makers.
We're out of time. Are you going to come back to New York scent? We can do it. We can do it remote from Michaelson.
The LA office is phenomenal. It is Century City, extraordinary.
Shay German Mark germant On behalf of all of us on team Bloomberg Surveillance.
Thank you so much for your work.
It is definitive to be at midnight and there'll be some story out of Taipei or Singapore.
German says.
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Bloomberg Surveillance in our front pages at Lisa Mateo moment, Lisa, what do you got?
Okay, we all know Ferrari right hot brand. But the Wall Street Journal has this really interesting look into the crazy economics behind why it's dominating.
The luxury car market.
So it's worth about ninety billion, but it only delivered about thirteen thousand, seven hundred vehicles just over that. So they call this business model based on scarcity because sometimes they only offer like a few select vehicles to collectors, and the collectors love it because they're part of this elite club. And then while most cars lose value, some of these like select Ferraris.
They keep their value, they gain value.
Like the hypercar in twenty thirteen it was like one point four million dollars. It now fetches about three point eight million dollars and they show it. It's similar to like the air May's the Burke and bags. You know, everyone wants a Burke and Bags and that they they say, it's a similar kind of thing. You know, it has this thing that everybody just wants them, and that's what it is.
So here goes tom Thing. I've got something picked up for you, the twenty twenty five Ferrari F eighty Okay, list price three point seventy four million.
You got to be Sir Lewis's height to get into the things.
Yes, that's why they don't have the session.
They would get into the Ferrari and the Lamborghinis the world.
I don't know how many over the Martin store and Park Evan. Once they threw me out of the store, they nice try next.
Okay, this one. You pointed out this out to me, tom So, about how restaurants are charging like deposits or minimum amounts when you have to make a reservation.
Well, I found a story.
Actually London is starting to do this because higher number of cancelations, no shows. They're also saying it's because of those bots and resale websites that are taking up a lot of the reservations. Then they have the social media influencers who want the free meal in order to post a picture. So they're saying that they're charging like one hundred dollars like per person as a minimum, and you have to pay it when you book the reservation.
Reservation squatting.
Squatting, that's another thing. Yes, it's like multiple bookings and you don't you only go to one.
Wonderful restaurant to South Madison. Amiranth, good morning to Ammerth. We were talking to Libby Cantrell about the new Van Clea store and they set over Amreth, great food, great launch, blah blah blah, and Amorth told me it's the plague and they're they're battling what to do about.
Let's the old day the restaurant. Yeah, like a reservation two people.
Yeah, sometimes you have to wait in line. Actually you can't even call them one more. Okay, Big Sports Media News, Major League Baseball, Walt Disney's ESPN. They're ending the broadcast relationship at the end of twenty twenty five, so we talked about it. The league said, to the mutual agreement, ESPN kind of scale back their baseball coverage because they want to pay less. They did, so there's a lot of ways to watch baseball though.
End up, ESPN is looking at its costs and saying, hey, baseball is a regional sport, not a national sport or a national network. So the costs aren't worth it for us right now. So like everything else, Tom, it's going.
To streaming, Amazon, Netflix, whatever. Yeah, and you know you they spend over one billion on James Bond. What are they going to spend on the Boston Red Sox?
Anything they want. They can afford anything they want.
So yeah, so it's.
Gone to the regional streaming story.
Why are we sewing Yankee footage on YouTube?
Yes, there you go. What else would you show? Exactly? What else would you show?
You know you want to go work for Mark Kerman. Hurry, that's just too much. You don't want it. Thank you are that's the last Yankee imagery we do, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. The newspapers. I will put it out on Twitter and LinkedIn.
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