Beating The Book: Warren Sharp, 2019 NFL Strength of Schedule Analysis 2.0

today's Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy This is a Number Game with Kil Alexander and broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and Information Network and wabil gidiots will believe in analytics. Analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers and Gil has every number you need to catch your tickets now live from the Visa in studios in the South Point

Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of the Numbers Game right here in Visa Vegas Stats and Information Network, Serious X of Channel two of four, Visa dot Com, the Visa Boobo TV, Sling TV as well Skill Alexander. Jeff Parls is here. Let's do a little football a little more than twenty four hours away now from the NFL Draft. We'll get into that with Pete

Futech coming up momentarily his favorite draft props. First, though, the man himself, um not only uh, the guy who runs sharp football stats dot com, sharp football and elysis dot com and can be followed on Twitter at sharp football, but a gentleman who made his appearance in the action docuseries as well alongside our friend Bill Crackenburger is Warren Sharblay's gentlemen. Good morning to you, Warren, Hey, good morning Gil. How are you doing. I'm doing very well. How was

that experience for you? By the way, the action series, um, I mean the the experience itself of the filming itself up at U up in New Jersey was was a good experience. Obviously, let me see crack again in person. We do a lot of our working during the season and off season over the phone, so it was good to see him in person and talk to him for a little bit. But uh, yeah, you know, as you know, because you were on the show, they filmed for like

three hours and used like three minutes. But that's that's to be that's to be expected. Um So Yeah, a good overall experience sitting there with those guys Warren, that show biz. That's what they tell me. That's how that works. Apparently, before we get to uh, your strength of schedule comments, because I know you went on a on a torrent of strength of schedule tweets this morning, I want to talk to you about some interesting tweets you had. I

found them interesting anyway. And I always say about you, as good as you are on game by game analysis, one of the things you're underrated for is your analysis of roster construction. And I found this Chief's Seahawks trade to be a very interesting prison through which to look at that. So the Chiefs released Justin Houston this offseason.

They trade Dfour not because of ability, but because of money consideration and the fact that they are maybe saving up for some contracts they gotta they gotta worry about the future, most prominently perhaps Tyreek Hill. And we know how that goes now, uh. And then they're switching from a three four to a four three. And so with all of that sort of as a backdrop, yesterday the Chiefs um trade after trading d Fords in the Niners in the first round, they traded for a first round

pick yesterday for Seattle's Frank Clark. Not only that, but they give Clark a five year contract sixty three point five million dollars guaranteed, though that guarantee number could prove to be smaller once we get full details here. But essentially, when you look at Ford's contract, he cost San Francisco just thirty three and a half million guaranteed. So it's not that the Chiefs believe Clark is worth d Ford

plus the first round pick. They actually believe Clark is worth d Ford plus first round pick and thirty million dollars, basically what we're saying. But your prism here, I think is the smart one, which is looking at from the Seattle perspective with and here's your tweet, now, Warren with Russ under contract, Seattle gained four comp picks in next year's draft by letting guys walk, including a third and fourth.

They couldn't pay Clark hundred five million dollars, so instead of a messy holdout, they got a first and second in return. That's how you stack the deck in your favor with a big money quarterback. Now the next tweet, and this is where I want you to to to go off on here, Warren is, we've talked about this you and I before, that you win Super Bowls either with a Hall of Fame quarterback or the Seattle way,

the quarterback on a rookie contract. And you're suggesting here now that while Seattle sort of perfected that they may be perfecting a whole new thing here explained please, right, So there, they've got to figure out this brave new world for them, which is, how are we going to create a competitive roster with a quarterback that's taken up thirty million dollars of cap space a quarterback who we're paying was like a hundred sixty million over four years

something along those lines. So, uh, it's uncharted territ tory for them and for any team in the league. If you look around the league, nobody's paying a quarterback as much as they're paying Russell Wilson. So uh, you know, some people are coming up, well, the Patriots were able to do this, and that well, the Patriots, like Tom Brady hasn't been inside the top ten and cap hit in a long time. So the Patriots and Bill Belichick

don't have to worry about this problem. Seattle has to figure out, now, how are we going to win games with a quarterback taking up this much cap space? Because once CBA came along and they signed Russ and they all of a sudden, we're able to attack aggressively. They hit on a couple of drafts and they weren't paying their quarterback much so they could build the roster around him. Well, now you can't do that. You're in the exact obsituation situation.

Um So, I believe what they are doing is letting their big money guys walk out the door instead of spending a bunch to resign these guys. You know, we'll see they don't have any very many draft picks this upcoming draft, so getting a couple of draft picks they got a first this year, they got a second next year, is valuable. So that's what this trade accomplished in part.

Now they have two first round draft picks. The total first round draft picks the Seattle Seahawks had from two thousand thirteen to two eighteen was too that six years they had two first round draft picks in they have to now will they take one of those in trade down and try to bring in a few more players? Um As a result, possibly because they only had I

think entering the trade four picks. But the end result is they need to build up their roster, which lost I means everybody defensively that was a well known household name, all the legion of Boom obviously has gone. They need to build up that roster. And you're not going to be able to build up a roster with fifth and sixth and seventh round draft picks and expect to hit on those. You need those top three to four round

draft picks that have a much higher hit rate. Uh. And now they are going to have those with the first this year, with at next year, with a third and a fourth from comp Pics next year. So they have this arsenal, this incoming war chest of higher value draft picks that they're going to be able to turn into players. And all those players under the current c

BA will have very cheap rookie deals. It will get them four years of of a cheaper salary that they can get excellent play out of them, presuming that they hit on these guys and that their higher round draft picks, which is what they've what they've accomplished in this trade. So from a chief's perspective Warren. And this is where I a full disclosure. I said to my producer Jeff before before the show, I said, here's where Warren, who is much smarter than me on these kinds of things,

might disagree with me. But I texted my buddy yesterday who's also a keen football observer, and I said, from a Chief's perspective, I go, they got rid of Houston, they trade forward, and then they trade for Clark. They give up, They give up first, and they have to pay him all this money. I get it, they're going to a four three. I get it they're changing. But when you look at it like sort of big picture, doesn't this look like just poor gm NG. What am

I missing here? Well, you know, the the Chiefs are in the same position that the Seahawks were several years ago when Russ was in his rookie deal. So they're in this position where much like the Philadelphia Eagles did and much like the l A. Rams did, they can bring on key impactful players because their quarterbacks not occupying a lot of the cap space and because they need

those different makers. I think what they what they envisioned is with with Ford, for example, he can't play the end like their new defensive coordinator needs him to play, and they're switching schemes, and he's not going to be able to play with his hand in the ground, so they needed somebody who was going to be able to do that. And the run defense was terrible last year, and Ford is an upgrade on the run defensive perspective, So I I sort of understand why they made a

move like this. UM I don't love spending a huge contract dollars, but if this guy is going to produce on the field and prove worthy of it, that's to be determined. So I can't say they're spending too much on him right now because I don't know what he's going to actually produce. He may very well earn all

of that money. With the cap continuing to rise. With a quarterback on a rookie deal, it's not the end of the world to make a move like this, especially with the guys that have left your building, um and and the scheme that you want to implement. This guy is a great fit for it, So I don't think

it's the worst thing in the world. I just think it's a it's a bigger win for the Seattle Seahawks with their projected future because they have the big money quarterbacks, how the hell were they going to build around and Will Boom. Here's a great way to do that. Avoid the messy hold out. Get these draft picks in there and be able to spend them. Hopefully they don't trade down too much. Hopefully they get a couple of good guys towards the top of the draft that will make

an impact form. So I think it's a bigger win for where the Seahawks. I think it makes some sense for the Chiefs. The time will tell more than anything whether or not Clark earns that money. Yeah, all right, well Warren, let's uh. And by the way, of course, that doesn't even get into a whole discussion of you know, they they let Hunt go and they decided to believe in Hill, and that's a whole another discussion for another day.

As far as strength of schedule goes, you and I talked a few weeks ago when we when season win totals first came out at CG Technology. It was the first time we could look through that prism at your way of analyzing strength of schedule for the upcoming NFL season. Now, we know who's playing who when we have the week by week schedule, and so this produces a whole another sort of torrent of comments from you. Where would you like to start on this, Well, I think the first

place to start. You know, a lot of people question the usefulness and the utility of analyzing strength of schedule this time of year because they have heard me in the past say that using last year's win lass record is moronic, but they haven't fully bought into using future forecast and strength of schedule at this time in April.

What what's the point? These teams are different than they were last year, and I think that's a great place to start, because yes, they are different, but there is a correlation element here that we can utilize and gain some utility from looking back at last year's schedule and examining what the team is going to face this upcoming here.

One of the interesting things that obviously the way that I look at strength of schedule first and foremost if you're looking at total schedule, is I like to look at uh season win totals of their opponents, so we can get a better understanding of the overall quality of this opponents schedule. In twenty nineteen based on what we think these teams are going to be like in There's another way you can look at it, which is kind of like looking at all the efficiency metrics from eighteen

and pushing them into twenty nineteen. And by that, I mean you can look at what a team is going to face in terms of past defenses in just by looking at first cut, what do they face in two? What are the defenses rank in that they're playing in. Now, it's not a perfect world, but there is a correlation. There's zero point three. Three is the correlation factor that it correlates from year over year over the last five years.

And uh net and net takeaway on all of this is that when I look at strength of schedule based on wind totals, which is kind of the thing I came up with six seven years ago, whatever it was, and you look at the strength of schedule based on efficiency of these opponents, what I found is that twenty of the thirty two teams actually have a forecast twenty nineteen strength of schedule by the two different methods that

are within three position ranks. For instance, the New England Patriots based on wind totals, I showed them having the easiest schedule this upcoming year based on opponent efficiency, I showed them having a thirty the easiest schedule. That's a comparison there too. It changes between from one to three at the variants of two. Most of these teams in the league are within three ranking spots, which tells me that these two methods that I'm using are very consistent

and interchangeable for the most part. The key with strength of schedules always looking at those extremes. So there are some teams like the Cleveland Browns of the Pittsburgh Steelers who based on wind totals have a much easier schedule than what efficiency ends up forecasting for them. And there's a team in particular, Carolina Panthers, who based on wind totals has a much more difficult schedule than what they do.

But when you look at their schedule based on efficiency, So I think the underlying thing is just looking at is their utility in discussing strength of schedule And the

answer is yes. And there's multiple methods to use strength of schedule where you're looking at efficiency or wind totals, But what you definitely don't want to do is look at win loss and look at those six team games just from a win loss binomial perspective, and then forecast strength of schedule from this, because that is lazy if

nothing else, that's for sure. And you point out in your tweet here the first one of your strength of schedule tweets that based on total efficiency comparing strength of schedule faced in versus last year, the schedules that ease the most would be UH Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Philly, Pittsburgh. And the schedules to get the hardest the Texans, the Bears, the Colts, the Packers, and the Falcons all there at Sharp Football from Warren Sharp Warren, let's take a brief

break here. I want to come back and want to talk to you about because I'm involved in something that is dynamic, a sort of stock market of NFL teams where you can buy and sell as a as a year goes on. So I'm always very curious as to what schedules get hard at the end, what may start out easier. We'll get into that next with Warren right

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Additional terms and conditions apply. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler points Bet Stay Sharp speaking to Sharp Warren Sharp here on the show on a numbers game. Kind enough to join us uh this morning for a little strength of schedule two point oh talk and you can follow him at sharp Football on Twitter and Warren. Once folks go to Sharp Football, they can go to your Twitter to look at all this stuff, or they can

go to sharp football Stats for all the visuals. Yeah, everything's up at Sharp football stats interactive visuals that lets you choose up to thirty five different metrics that you can view a team's schedule like visually week by week looking at their opponents that are face based on what those rank UM. And you can find it if you go under the offensive menu down at strength of schedule

at the bottom of that. I also lifted for defensive strength of schedule as well, so in case you want to look at what do what offenses is a defense going to face? And a lot of people like to use this for fantasy football information, but as we both know, this type of information is obviously very important for sports betting as well. For sports betting as well for some

of the vehicles that I that I'm betting. In your your last couple of tweets, I want to get to because the second last one from this morning that is UM talking about just what you were just saying right there, which is about offensive strength of schedule weeks one through six. You just happen to put out that visual right here, and what you're saying is the Ravens run game could

smash early in the season. That's one of the headlines. Yeah, Yeah, there's definitely a way that you're going to be able to use this information to try to help forecast, um, you know, how how good a team could be based on different units of the ball early in the season. I think we both know getting out the gates early is something that a lot of teams is very important to get started on the right track. And you know, the Baltimore Ravens face a tremendously easy schedule of opposing defenses,

especially run defenses, to start the season. Based upon their rank in uh, they're gonna face in succession, the Miami Dolphins, the Arizona Cardinals, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cleveland Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Since that I Bengles, five of those six teams rank bottom ten last season in terms of run defensive ficiency. The Steelers were the only team that ranked above the bottom ten. So they're gonna

be in a very situation. Is going to help Lamar Jackson out because yeah, he does struggle to throw the football a little bit. Their passing game is not that dynamic, and so they'll be able to sort of ease into that probably a little bit in by the fact that they're going to be able to rely a lot on. They're very aggressive and difficult to defend run attacks, so that's something that they're going to happen at the edge four.

It's also interesting to note that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses in twent nineteen, and as we both know, we've got Bruce Arians moving down to Tampa Bay. Yes, they lost to Sean Jackson. The Bruce Arians running his offense down in Tampa Bay should be interesting for us when we're examining some of the past defenses that they're going to go

up against the start the upcoming season. The only one that's really difficult in that mix from last year at least was the l A Rams under Wade Phillips. They were a top ten past defense. But everybody else is I guess there's they're all borderline bottom ten. One is bottom eleven, but the rest are all bottom ten. Putting you on the spot here, Warren. So forgive me if we don't know the answer to this offhand, but I'm always fascinated by the team or teams that start out

with a gauntlet schedule. Remember last year it was the Giants, who even if you were bullish on the Giants. What I would keep saying is, look at look at these strength of schedule stats from Warren, like their first seven to nine games, I can't remember exactly it was seven or nine. They're lucky. I think it was seven. And I kept saying they're lucky to come out of this

two in five. Like, so even if they're even if they're better at football this year, like, they're dead in the water by mid season, no matter what it would seem by the schedule. Do you is there an equivalent to that this year? Uh? While the Open Raiders faced by far the most difficult schedule in the league to start the season, Um, if you look at who they play, they've got to go up against the demo Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, UH, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears.

Obviously the Denver Broncos, a team that is a decent team but not really playoff contention probably this upcoming season. But all of those other teams certainly are slated to make the playoffs this upcoming year, and three of the four made the playoffs last year, So no team faces a more difficult schedule over the first they have a bye week six, but over the first six weeks, nobody faces a more difficult schedule UM, but they overall have

a very difficult schedule. Difficult schedule to begin with UM, just if you're looking at their overall schedules, So they're not a team that's suddenly their schedule is going to get a lot easier, but they are a team that is going to get that whose schedule is going to get a lot UM is going to be difficult just off the jump. A team like the Houston Texas is another team who's got a very difficult overall schedule. They

got a very difficult schedule to start the season. I think a team that's UH in the mix that is going to get a lot easier after the first early flight UM is the UH Detroit Lions. That's a team who starts off much more difficult, but whose schedule is going to increase tremendously down the stretch. UM. And a team like the Indianapolis Colts as well, UH their schedule. They don't have an easy schedule this year, but to start the season, they've got one of the I think

it's the fifth toughest schedule in the league. And then it does lighten up a little bit after that. This is such a great information for those of us who have some other types of gambling vehicles. We were betting teams dynamically through the season. It's good to know the ebbs and flows of those schedules. And we close here Warren with your your most recent tweet, which is isolating the final six weeks of the schedule. Let's sort of

reverse this now. And this is great for Pete, for people, among other things, who like to bet, say futures, you know, midway through the season. This is very helpful to know what are the schedules, at least for projected playoffs teams. Anyway, you have those isolated here. What are those of those projected playoff teams? Who has an easy stretch light, who

has a tougher stretch late? And you've got the Rams, Steelers, Eagles, Browns, Falcons, Packers, and Ravens among the uh the teams with the easy push and then uh no, no good news here for the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Niners, the Chargers, or the Panthers. Love this stuff. Yeah, and I think the Atlanta Falcons are an interesting team to discuss because they have the Overall,

their schedule is not an easy schedule. They've got a bottom tent schedule in terms of the most difficult schedule, but they do close the season at least over the last six weeks. They get the Bucks twice, they get the forty Niners, they get the Jaguars, we'll we'll see what the Jaguars look like with Nick foles um. And then they get the Panthers and the Saints, two divisional opponents, good decent opponents, but both of those games are in Atlanta.

During that stretch of six games, they also host three consecutive games. They play all of their division opponents in consecutive weeks in Atlanta Week twelve the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week thirteen, the New Orleans Saints, in Week fourteen the Carolina Panthers. They only have two road games. They also get to host that unfamiliar opponent in Jacksonville. Uh that

that unfamiliar opponent of Jacksonville in Atlanta. So those all are very beneficial for the Atlanta Falcons, and the first part of their schedule is one of the more difficult in the NFL. So that's a team to be aware of, especially if they start off slow, they're not doing well of a team that could catch up on those wind total bets later in the season, or could offer some type of in season value if you like what they're doing but they're just losing some close games. War and

I lied, I have one more question. I know you're not a NFL draft nick, where you're like, oh, this guy should go here, and this guy should go there, or you're doing mock drafts, but I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you on your way out here, just as a sort of general statement from from your vantage point, do you have a draft pet Peeve? Do you have something that you look for when you observe an NFL draft? What's like your big headline? Every year? It's difficult to

really say who wins and loses these things. I think it's very easy for people to come out and suggest that they know, but we really don't know how these players are going to turn out. What I don't like is teams that go and reach for players to fit a certain scheme, to fit a certain mold of what

they're looking for. Instead, I think they more teams should be going out and getting guys that are capable of winning in the rules that are constructed for the modern football and then adjusting the way that they build their team, call their plays, et cetera, around the strengths of who

they have on their roster. I'm not saying, go best player available every single pick that you're taking, but there's far too many teams that are going to reach in the first second round of the draft for certain players because of perceived needs or desires to fit certain mold, and they're really giving up value and passing up opportunity to take players. And they just need their coach to say, look,

I'll coach this guy slightly different. Now, call slightly different plays on this side of the ball, and then they would be able to incorporate better players on the field. Uh if they utilize that strategy. Imagine that Warren absolutely conforming your game plans to the strength of your own personnel. As a guy who grew up on Joe gibbson d C, I say a big amen to that who won three Super Bowls basically adjusting to the different personnel that he had.

Warren Sharp at sharp football on Twitter. That's where sort of acts as a gateway to all of his other stuff, Sharp football stats. Shart Football Analysis dot Com. Warren appreciated as always, will put it in podcast for and for those who didn't miss who weren't able to hear the whole thing. I appreciate it man. Thanks Jill Warren sharp best in a big bo