Beating The Book: The 2019 NCAA Tournament Special with Seth Walder, ESPN, on Giant Killers; Adam Stanco and Greg Peterson on Round 1 ATS

on the job. That's how we do it. March Madness covered with props as well on today's Beating the Book Podcast enjoy by Seth Walter, ESPN Analytics writer does such a great job. Now, set The real reason that we're here with you today and the reason we wanted you on and thank you so much for coming on, is that you took over the Giant Killers man will over at ESPN dot Com. We had Peter keating on for so many years talking about it. I know his colleague

Jordan's Brenner had done it for while. You're on top of it as well, and we are here selection Sunday. Now we know where the brackets happened, and we know what was selected and what brackets yesterday. So let's give the giant Killers criteria first, if you would, and then delve into who are the best candidates. Absolutely, so we look at any team that is five seat lines below their opponent, that's a potential giant killer. That's what we're

looking at. Essentially, we're looking for upset teams, and so the idea of the column has always been a quantitative first look at which teams are most likely to pull off that upset. So when we redesigned this model year ago, basically we took b p I, which is our sort of standard ESPN prediction tool for college basketball. That's the kind of thing where you know, you turn on Sports Center it says Duke's got a chance to beat North Carolina.

That's coming from dp uh. We take that, and then my colleague Paul Saban put a sort of twist on it where he's essentially looking at the matchup of the individual team based on uh sort of opponent adjusted box score statistics and how those strengths and weaknesses interact, and so that ends up spinning out a number for us to look at the upset chance for all of these matchups.

And this could apply to a first round matchup, correct, but also could apply to a subsequent round if say at twelve seed advances, And it could happen down the road as well, not just the first round possibility for for sure. And of course second round you got built in you have those you know seven verse two's, you know nine verse ones. Those are all potential giant killers.

Um that will will head at some point. Okay, So as we look at the regions as they're currently constructed, then what leaps off the page for you based on all that, Well, a couple of things. Number one, the numbers are lower here for the upsets compared to last year, So just across the board, I think we're talking about maybe a less easy first round. Last year, we had our top upset pick was Loyola Chicago with a forty six percent chance to beat Miami. I bring it up

because I worked out well. But uh, this is this year, like our nomber one upset chance is th that's Murray State over Marquette h So that's a big difference. I think that would have read four or five last year. So I think we're talking about there's less obvious upset picks. Murray Stavers Marquette is a game. I think even if we didn't have it an upset pick, you gotta watch that one. I mean, John Moran Marcus Howard should be

an incredible game. I just think that what the model is seeing is that just Murray States two point offense from the floor with Morant both in terms as a scorer and and with his assists, makes them just an incredible threat. Obviously Marquete is the better team, but if it falls just right, Murray State definitely a real, real chance to win that one. What's interesting about that to me isn't you're right, John Morant is must is must viewing, and that that's a twelve five matchup in the West

by the way, between Murray State and Marquette. That's in Hartford on Thursday. UM, and we can flash up by the way the south point line on that game, if you guys would on the screen. But that is a UM.

What's interesting is I just went through my sort of the championship formula of these six criteria that sort of worked from year to year, and I was just saying, how unsexy the results are this year like, it's such a top heavy college basketball season that it was no surprise that it would be you know, the Virginia's and the Dukes and the Carolinas, Michigan, Michigan States of the world. That that that qualify what I was hoping, I guess is that we would have chaos at least in the

first two rounds. And maybe I don't want to read into just one comment from you, but if you're saying the top giant killer possibilities thirty four percent, oh no, maybe not. I think maybe not. And I you know, there are definitely some interesting matchups. I think, you know, Vermont over Florida State is one that looks really enticing to me. St. Mary's over Villano. But but in terms of these in terms of yeah, like, of course we're

gonna have upsets. But I agree with you that it may not be that it's a crazy year, uh in terms of the upsets. But I also do think that it's maybe, you know, maybe it will be a little bit more surprising towards the end. I know that our numbers are very off from Vegas in terms of in terms of duke relative to Virginia and Gonzagas, so maybe we get the surprise at the end of this tournament rather than the beginning. What did come after Murray State

in terms of percentage? Was it Villain, Was it Montana or St. Mary's. So we have Belmont against Maryland. That's not a that's not a guaranteed matchup. I like Vermont over Florida States subjectively because I think, you know, Vermont's pick strains offensively is shooting free throws. Uh, They're an excellent free throw shooting team in Florida State, that they have a really good defense. They put their opponents at

the line an awful lock. So that just seems like a sort of one of those situations where the matchup might make it just a little bit better. And that game, by the way, is also in Hartford, which is you know, you know, swort of a home game for Vermont, which I think was awfully kind of the committee to put the Catamounts in Hartford. Sure is Florida State. By the way, for those betting ten point favorites over Vermont at Hartford Marquette that we just spoke about four and a half

point favorites over Murray State. But you're saying Belmont if they get by Temple over Maryland is second to the Murray State in terms of giant killer percentage. Correct, we've got thirty two there for Belmont Temples on the list, but they're farther down at if they end up winning that first board matchup. Okay, what comes after Belmont? I'm just curious. It's interesting that's Vermont then at seven. So I think that's where one where we probably have a

pretty big difference with Vegas on that game. I think you said what you say ten ten point uh line? There? Yeah, ten point lines and not uh mark, excuse me? Su favored by ten? Yes, yeah, I have a few favor amount of ten. So that that sounds like to me a game where we would likely where the model is

probably more bullish on Vermont than the biggest line. Yeah, but it really is apples and oranges, right, Like, obviously this is a this is a market, and yours really is about sort of the volatility of results in some respects, right, it's sort of h if Vermont can get a certain pace going in their game against and so much of this is pacing, right absolutely, and so like the game and that's that's like a perfect The game after that st Mary's in Villanova. I think that that that really

is what comes into play. It's sort of the range of outcomes and we're looking at, well, you know, what's the range that St. Mary's wins. It seem like Villanova you mentioned right, second round giant killers. We had identified before the tournament. Villanova, it's a potential second round giant killer. We were thinking of them as a as a seventh seed because of the their style which is super slow and shooting a lot of three. So there's a ton

of variants in there. But that helps you as an underdog, but that hurts you when you're a favorite. And that's the that's the reason why we actually like St. Mary's quite a bit against Villanova in the first round, just because of that pasting. Like you mentioned talking to Seth Walder at Seth Walter. By the way, w A. L. D. E. R. From ESPN writes uh and does a great job with

analytics talking giant killers with him. So Murray State at thirty four percent over Marquette, that's a four and a half point spread, by the way, for betters out there, followed by Belmont if they get by Temple in the playing game in Jacksonville. Uh, they will or they will then advance to Jacksonville on Thursday take on University of Maryland. That'd be a six eleven game that is in the East region there and the other ones mentioned against St. Mary's, Vermont,

Montana's in there. What's it? What's a game seth that might surprise folks? That isn't it doesn't register really high in your formula. I would say maybe Oregon. Uh, you know, Oregon, Wisconsin. We only have a se I'm not sure if that. I'm not sure that goes contrary to what people but people would think, I mean different view. It does because the Oregon is at one point favorite based on the betting number. Oh my goodness, wow, I had no idea.

This is like one of those things like the bracket comes out and then I just burrow my head in my computer for like, uh for hours on. I just right of his matchups. I haven't even looked at the Vegans line. Um, so that's shocking to me. Just just off the top here. That's interesting, And I think it's particularly interesting because the one thing when I look at with Oregon is I consider our numbers. Do not explicitly consider in season injuries and so well, it's not a

huge effect. Bull Ball played nine games for Oregon this year, was obviously their best player, and so if anything, I would say we are overrating Oregon by a little bit because it the model is an accounting for the fact that it doesn't that Oregon doesn't have. So that's that's really interesting to me that we would be so down on them against Wisconsin, you know, really a defense of

course Wisconsin. Uh uh in just having that's interesting. I actually think it's interesting that you don't look at the betting because I think that makes this more valuable to us, because betting markets are very influenced by recency and your numbers not nearly as much. And I said, so, I

think that that's an interesting uh difference between them. I leave you with this, Seth, because I was making the point in the first segment of the show here today that I'm not one of these people likes to complain because I think the committee did relatively speaking, as long as Belmont was in there. Everything else was sort of like,

you know, quibbles to me. Um. But one of the things I did mention was their treatment of the net rankings and the fact that you had the n C States, NC State, Texas, Clemson Firm in memphisis of the world who were in the thirties or forties of net rankings didn't get in. But yet Minnesota at sixty one, Arizona State at sixty three, St. John's at seventy three, all

got in. I'm okay with that, but it was sort of that based on the methodology, a team's net rankings didn't seem to matter, but they were always quoting results against teams in net rankings quadrants? Did that bother you at all? It bothers me immensely. So you're you're better than the man than I. You said you don't like to complaining about it. I absolutely like to complain about it. The committee's logic here is and I wrote a story about this last week. Um, the committee's logic with net

ranking is, well, it's lacking. I think you know they made a big improvement with our from our p I sure, but it needs to sort out whether whether it wants NET to be a resume metric or a key quality metric. And it's using it for different reasons. Right, Like you said, they're always sorting, they're always quoting NET to about opponents rankings, but then they ignore it for for one team, but

then sometimes they maybe use it. It's inconsistent and we really there's no reason to mush all these numbers together in and almost in a really strange way. Uh, and then sometimes use it and then sometimes not. I find it there are frustrating when we have numbers. If it wor up to me, I would just it would just be the whole thing. All our large bids and seating would be done on a resume basis, you know, whether that's a strength of record like we have or something similar.

I think that's the right approach. I do think that they were very pick and choose where they want to use that and where they don't, and so, uh it does bother me. I think, yeah, it bothers me too. I think I was I was trying to be more involved than I actually am. Seth when I saying I don't like Greensboro. Greensboro is robbed, that's not that's not that one. But their strength of record is they really deserve to be in their Greensboro is the team up

that bothered me? Yeah, it should be mentioned like the n I t for me this year and I'm completely doing this just off the off the cuff here, Seth. But the n I T looks pretty stacked as far as N I T s go. I know. I was thinking that too last night. I was looking at it. I was like, Wow, maybe it's just because I'm paying attention to all these teams for Giant Killers that end up being like bubble teams or we'll miss out if

they don't win their conference tournament. But I was like, Wow, there's a lot of good teams in here, and uh, maybe a few of them should be in over St. John's or Minnesota. Yeah, and I T gets off tomorrow. I got Providence at a pretty big number there, So I have a I have never been this excited for an n I T as I am with some action on it. Seth Walder from ESPN writing for ESPN Analytics. Seth, thank you so much, man. We'll have you back on again if you're willing. Sounds great, Gil happy to come

on anytime. Thank you, sir, Seth Walder from ESPN dot com Sports analytics writer. Support for today's show has always comes from Bookmaker dot Eu, proud sponsor of this podcast. We're thrilled to have of them aboard and right now once again at Bookmaker dot EU slash gill that's gilt with two els you can join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now. Remember

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three hundred dollars. But here's the deal. Two Big n C double a March Madness bracket contest this year. The first is a sixty three team bracket with a one million dollar prize awarded to a perfect bracket, and then ten thousand dollars five thousand dollars twenty five hundred dollar prizes first, second, and third place. Every completed bracket will get a prize. But once again, it's ten K, five K twenty five hundred dollars for first, second, and third.

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Second Hyphen Chance Hyphen Bracket Hyphen Contest. So first the sixty three team bracket with the one million dollar Perfect Bracket prize and the ten k first place prize as well, that's the one you're looking at right now. But you've got to sign up at Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L that's an information network and LOBL gideots will believe in analytics and analytics, statistics and more are used to win waiters and Gil has every number you

need to catch your tickets. And now five from the vs In Studio is in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. This is gonna be fun. It is a numbers game right here at Visa, the Vegas Stats and Information Network, serious XM, Channel two, O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Fubo TV Skill Alexander. Jeff Parls is here day two for Jeff in the producer's chair. Good morning to Jeffrey, Good morning. I put my mike

on correctly this time. So good. That's all right. One at A two makes you a Hall of Famer in baseball. Well done? Uh today. Usually at this point in the show we say, oh, here's who's on the show today, and we give you a roster of just you know, murderers, Row seven Yankees. Not every day, but you know that's what we're trying to do. Not today today. It is

about college basketball, nothing but college basketball. And of course our guests are great guests, but they're gonna be with us for two hours, very generous with their time and their expertise. We're gonna do Brackett by Brackett a t S straight up for you. For those who don't even betted against the number, just want to fill out brackets, well we'll get some insight on that. Sometimes it'll just

be yeah, just a vance duke that'll that's all it'll take. Uh. And we'll do props, a lot of props that are out at the West Gate. We'll get Final four picks, Championship picks from everybody. Uh, nothing but march madness. Uh. We will have Adam Stankle on the phone momentarily to help us along in a studio. The Ladies and Gentlemen, a absolute encyclopedia of college basketball knowledge. Greg Hoops Peterson, good morning to you. Greg, good morning. If you typically

have the seven Yankees, does that make me the Miracle Mets? Yes, your the Miracle Mets. You would be the Miracle Mets. That's a good that's good analogy for you. So you name of your podcast once again, college Hoops College Betting Overtime. When you tell me what it is, College Hoops Overtime Betting Midnight Pacific three mm EA s turn every single day where I break down every single wide C B I C I T A I T n C double

A tournament. You name it, I'm breaking it down. And then also that's gold see heightener, because it is gold. Jerry it is, It's called Jerry. It's gold, all right. So you how long it was the average length of your podcast though, like it's a deep dive, isn't it? For the college basketball podcast US, we're gonna be probably doing I would say about twenty games a day, so it's gonna be a little bit over an hour a

day at this point. There were times when we had those ninety games slates on those Saturdays where it would sometimes get to be three and a half four hours. UH, since you're doing you know, people thirst for it now though they'll they'll take an hour for sure, I too. By the way, for those who don't who won't able, are not gonna be able to hear every bit of this two hour show, we will put it in podcast

form as well. We'll get Seth Walter from yesterday talking about giant killers we're thrown on with this bracket by bracket special and we'll put it in podcast for UH in form rather. But before we do that, you mentioned you do the n I T. Greg, I have a vested interest in Providence winning the n I T. They take on Arkansas tonight. Daniel Gafford, Arkansas's UH sophomore standout, says he's going pro. He's not gonna play in this game.

Why is this line only six in favor, not that I need to cover it, It just need Providence to advance. But why only six here without Gafford? That's very confusing to me. I think that maybe bookmakers haven't adjusted to Gafford being out. That's the only thing I can think of, because this said came come up a little bit suddenly, and we saw it in the n I T BIS you're with. I believe it was Tremezzi Matto sitting out

for USC. They really didn't adjust the line too much, and then USC just look completely awful in the n I T. You would have think that people would have learned their lesson from that. But it is really confusing that Providence is currently only laying five to six points. Now we'll see how that goes in I T starts tonight. I believe it's ten games if I'm not mistaken. In the n I T six tomorrow for the first round of the National Invitation Tournament, the Battle for sixty nine

as we like to call. Yeah, it used to be the national championship many years ago. But now, of course

that's about March Madness. Let's bring him in now. Also to help us along here, Adam Stanko, who is the host of the Catch and Shoot podcast available We're all podcasts are distributed and also doing this n C double a tournament quick Hitters thing at poor Pure hoops Media where he does a minute and a half minute to minute and a half little uh blurb on all sixty eight teams, including the playing teams, which we'll get to here off the top, which are great. Where can we

access that, Adam? And good morning to you by the way, Hey, Gil, can you hear me? Okay? We can now? Yeah on sky there you go. Okay, can we hear them? Okay? How are we doing all right? Adam? Where can we access the quick hitters? Well, you can access the quick hitters um on Apple podcasts or wherever podcasts are found. Um and uh just type in pure Hoops quick Hitters. You can find them there, every single team in the field. You you can be an expert on in one minute.

I mean, that's pretty much the plan. And then you can check them out online at pure hoops media dot com. Okay, there, by the way, your audio got good there in the last three seconds, so don't move. I think he finally correct it there at the end. So let's start with uh, let's start with just the overall futures for the for the n C Double A tournament. Let's start there. We'll do it region by region. We have props on those coming up. But as far as the big dance itself, uh,

no surprise at the top where the value is? Uh? Or excuse me? Where who's who's the shortest shot? Now? Where the bat value? As we'll determine that if there is any momentarily, but these are done MA. We do them by as seatings. Here. This is from the Westgate tournament. Teams one through four seeds per region. Duke is the short shot in the tournament among the number one seeds among anybody else there plus two twenty five right now

current odds to win it all um. And then you see Gonzaga second shortest shop this again at the west Gate always shop Virginia, North Carolina. The other two number one seeds in this tournament are at six to one. And then you see all on the screen and we do it by seating here two seeds, three season, four seeds.

You see how it goes down. It goes down pretty quickly, literally to the point where you can get into l s U still here at six two one which is always my point about pre flop futures, Greg, which is there's just no value before a season at any of these So many times you can wait till now. Like college basketball, you can get amazing numbers in February now here we are right before the Big Dance. And if you believe in a team like I don't know, Texas Tech has cut it down now at to and I

have them at uh to one. But a team like l s U, if you believe in them, nothing wrong with six one, I guess exactly. For the top two seeds, the teams on the one seed line and the two seed line, you want to try to fire as quickly as possible because Duke to open up the year nine to two, they haven't been anything below three to one and seemingly eons. But with that said, with just about any team that's outside the top eight, you really can

wait on these futures. And hey, if you're really liking one of these teams and you think that it's a long shot that they're gonna win the national championship, which obviously it's a long shot for any of these teams outside of that top eight to be able to win the national championship, you are able to get some very good prices on things like to win the Final four and everything like that as well. So you've got so many options in that regard. Let's start with the playing games.

And by the way, here we are some other five through eight seeds. Here are their future prices. So again, now they get very long, very quickly. There's a very top heavy year in college basketball. But take it seem like Buffalo, Buffalo, Adam, sixth seed, eight to one. Some people are filling out their brackets a lot of chalk when you look at people just anecdotally one one two,

one on one three. But if there is a seed that is longer than those, a lot of people throwing Buffalo in eighty two one to win at all any value there in your opinion, Adam, uh No, I mean I think I think we could see Buffalo. I mean, you know, win a couple of games in this tournament. But uh no, I mean I I think that your best bet, if if you are on Buffalo, would be you know, you're you're hopeful of a final four run, and then you start to hedge against the absolute miracle

that I can't do it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, But I do think that. I mean, look, I think Buffalo is is much better than the team they were last year, and and the team they were last year obviously knocked off Arizona and gave Kentucky a challenge in the first half. So certainly a team that could win at least two games in this tournament. Yeah, I have a Buffalo in Texas take get one and one fifteen to one UM,

not respectively, but the other way around. I think the Buffalo is the one fifteen to one in the Texas Techas one. But again, yeah, it's not about expecting them to win it all is expecting. It's hoping that they get into, say the Final four, and then using it as a vehicle to earn at that point play in games. We'll do the play in games here and we'll go to break and we'll start with the East Region after

the break. Playing games begin tonight. This in Dayton, Ohio Fairly Dickinson and Prairie View A and M. This is a fight for the sixteen seed and the rights to play Gonzaga UH in the first round of the Western Region. That game tonight though between Fairly Dickinson, Prairie View A, and M three forty pm Pacific six forty pm Eastern tip off. Fairly Dickinson two point favorite, Greg, What do

you think about that? Hey, last time Fairly Dickinson was in the n C Double A Tournament, they actually played Illinois very tough as a sixteen seed. How would that said? Prairie View A and um. This is a squad that they are one of the most frequent following teams out there in the country. I believe that there was a game this year in which they gave up a hundred and twenty points in Louisiana Lafayette. Meanwhile, Fairly Dickinson, I'm not sure why they got put into a playing game.

This is a team that choots over forty percent from three. They've got a point guard at Darnell Edge. It pours in sixteen and nine points per game. Their point guard Jenkins, he has an assistant turnover issio greater than two. I think the size of Max Holloway and company just gonna completely Prairie View A and M live. I think that this is a mismatch line. Fairly Dickinson lane two points

are very easy playing. Wow, Gregg coming out strong. You and you you've been high on fairly Dickinson on this show, I know pretty consistently. Yes, I have been. I've been very high and fairly Dickinson ever since Northeastern Play began. Adam Staggle on the phone the Nights Northeast Toney Champs, the Panthers of prayer View A and M Swack regular season Attorney Champs. Good coaching battle here again for the rights play in zag on Thursday night in Salt Lake City.

What do you think about this? Well? I agree with Greg that fairly Dickinson's the better team. But Perie View A and M on a roll right now. I mean one and one in their last twenty two games. They they actually have scored ninety points in five of their last twelve. This is a team that likes to just run. They play. It's sort of this uh frenetic pace if they can UH team made up of almost entirely junior college transfers. The issue with them though, is that, I mean,

both teams are bad defensively. In an n tournament, especially a playing game, it's going to be tough to get that kind of pace that you want. And and as soon as it goes somewhat to a half court game, I mean Greg said at Darnell Edge kalle bit of they're gonna cause issues. So I think fairly Dickinson with was this game. I think it's a little bit closer than Greg said. But I do think that um, I think prayer of viewing and him is unable to run, and so I think we're looking at a game that's

more five to ten points. But I don't think that we're seeing to blow out. I do think FDU wins this game, all right. Also tonight in Dayton, Ohio. Right after that game, Temple and Belmont much anticipated Belmont with their chance to get into the round of sixty four. If you will, this is a eleven verses eleven if you will, the chance to be the eleventh seed, to take all the University of Maryland, the six seeds out of the Big ten um and that will be on

I believe it's on Thursday. Yes, that will be on Thursday in Jacksonville. Belmont, the Bruins Ohio Valley regular season champs, got some Giant Killers love from Seth Walter yesterday on the show. Belmont a three and a half point favorite. Greg, I do like Bellmont in this spot. This is a team that ranks second among all teams in the field and regards to two point shooting percentage. They've got over seven guys they're able to shoot over thirty seven for

some from three. Their point guard Grace and Murphy gives out six and a half two point five turnovers. And then for Temple, they're just two reliant on their three guards Quentin Rose, Nate, Pierre Lewis and shes Alson, all very nice players. They combined the average forty nine and a half points per game. They could absolutely nothing down low, ernest the flock peoples and nine rebounds. But who else is gonna be able to step up for the team? If this badcourt is even the most remotely cold that

they can be, it's gonna be really tough. I think that Bellmont just has too many pieces. They've got too much depth, very able to roll in this one. This would be a real disappointment, Adam, if Belmont didn't get through here, won't it? Absolutely especially for all the people pushing for them. And I I I do, I do agree with Greggan's and same logic. I mean, when you talk about the fact that Belmont what what usually happens

with with mid majors. Where they struggle is is going up against size and depth the talent of of the of the high majors, and in this case I mean Belmont taking on Temple. They have the best player in the game and Dylan Windler, and uh, they don't have a disadvantage size wise. They're not going to be crushed down low by any scoring opportunities from from Temple. Obviously that backcourt strong. I love fran Dunfie, it's it's his

swan song. But I agree that Dylan Windler, who Seth Greenberg calls a poor man's Doug McDermott, is going to be introduced to to the nation. Uh, not in this game, but but in their next one. All right, tomorrow night. Continuing to play in games, and we'll get to the East Region to kick things off after the break. But North Carolina Central, the Eagles out of the Mid Eastern Athletic Conference, UH Turney amps in that conference take on North Dakota State the Bison or Summit League champs. UH

that is in Dayton tomorrow night as well. Sixteenth seed on the line here, a chance to play Duke on On at Columbia South Carolina on Friday. Let's throw up the line for this one. North Dakota State five point favorites here Greg online the points with North Dakota State, They've got They really did a great job of thinking some three points out there in the Summit League. There will bring in a couple of guys off the bench

are able to help out this team. Dangs You six ft seven combo player does a good job shooting in the mid thirties from three point range. Tason Ward a Night six ft six combo player, and Frenze Central. They actually do a good job of being able to rebound. They just don't have any backcourt play whatsoever. And that's where North Dakota State is going to have this game one adam especially on North North Carolina Central. This is seen the played in the tournament the last couple of years.

Lavell Moton Night Stars in the in the coaching ranks and um both teams are are are pretty slow, but actually North Carolina the Central likes to muck it up offensively. They they opponents have really struggled over the last ten games to even reach seventy points. And so even though North Carolina Central is brutal shooting all right, we're having trouble with Adam. We'll move on in there. Yeah, Adam,

we'll get your audios straightened out. Last playing game tomorrow, Greg, Arizona State and St. John's eleven seeds, if you will trying to be the eleven seed to take on number six Buffalo UH in their region, the Red Storm and the Sun Devils. Sun Devil's come in as one and a half point favorites in this one chance to play Buffalo in Tulsa on Friday. Well, need let's say, if Chris Mallens and Bobby Hurley we're playing one on one, this line would probably be a reverse. But literally, we

don't have that here. But that said, I'm gonna go with the Arizona stat in this spot. St. John's came neck back to earth a little bit with regards to the other three point shooting and St. John's one of the worst teams with regards the rebound rate in this entire field. You take a look at Arizona State. They've got a guy in Sailand cheat him at averages twelve points over ten rebounds per game, shoots over from three.

We saw Remy Martin really come out late at the point guard spot assists to turn over ratio greater than two. I like what he does. Lu Dorc gets a little bit loose with the ball, but I think he's going to be the most physically imposing team player out there on this floor, and with St. John's he just won't really have a lot of size shmar Ponds and his player. He doesn't necessarily light it up from three. I'm gonna go with the ariz on a state laying the point

in half. Um, Greg, My only wish for you is that you would have been able to see Chris Mullen Bobby Hurley in college, Bobby Hurley on those dude teams. They Bobby Hurley playing four Final four's. I think he might have. I believe he did. Yeah and uh and then uh Chris Mullen with a St. John's team that got to the Final four with Walter Barry and Mark Jackson, just unbelievable teams and never got there because they always had to go up against Georgetown and other juggernauts in

the Big East. We'll get with Adam back. Will start with the Eastern Region. Now that we have the play ins decided here or at least analyzed, we will start with the East Region and Duke next Bracket by bracket March madness all morning long on a Numbers game at Visa. Back to a Numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. Breaking news has a way of happening right after we get off the air here on a Numbers game. Not

this morning. Jeff Passon reporting that Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels are finalizing a record breaking get ready for this, Oh and Bryce Harper Scott boards didn't do any good. A record breaking This is for Trout now twelve year contract worth more than four hundred and thirty million dollars. Let me say that again. Twelve year, four hundred and thirty million dollars. The first number there was four. That's an average of thirty five point eight three million

dollars a year. That would be not only the biggest contract ever shattering in terms of full amount of money four hundred thirty million, a hundred million more than Bryce basically right there, but per year average fual salary the largest of all time in sports, not just baseball. So there it is. Mike Trout a lot of money that is a lot of money. Greg Peterson, one day you too, we'll have that kind of money. I think by Rayford appearing on the show just went up a little bit.

Let me just say this, if you're Bryce Harper, Seriously, if you're Bryce Harper and you waited and waited in the way, you're like, I don't care many years I'm in Philly. I just want the biggest number. Well, go away, thirteen years in Philly for a paltry a pittance of three. All right, let's start this East region. Here we go. Listen, we don't know who Duke's playing yet, so there's no line here. It's Duke against the winner of that n C Central North Dakota State game we were just talking

about in the play in game. This will be in Columbia, South Carolina on Friday. But I'm assuming Duke advances. In your brackets, Yes, if you take the sixteen seed in this spot, do you really have some cones and you're gonna go down? Do you think, by the way, this is the hardest bracket, the East second hardest. That's a little bit of a tough one. I think it's all real, TIV. I think that the East Innergards the two seed, probably the toughest in Michigan State, though you can make a

case for Kentucky as well. Okay, um the winner of the Duke North Carolina Central North Dakota State game, and let's just assume it's Duke, and I assume Adam Stanka will advance Duke in his bracket as well. We'll take on the winner of the eight nine game between VCU Virginia Commonwealth the RAMS seven eight regular season champs this year and Central Florida the nine seed and eight this year to extremely dangerous mid majors who get pitted against

each other Friday night in Columbia, South Carolina. Again. The winner then gets to play Duke. Probably Greg. We start with you u c F a one point favorite, and it sounds like Marcus Sevans who got hurt in that eight ten tournament. I was talking to an injury expert. He said, and I quote, no chance he plays in

this game. And if that is the case, that's gonna hurt for VCU, who already it's the second world three point shooting team out there in this tournament, the worst three point shooting team all by the way, Duke, you University of Central Florida. You've got seven foots taco fall down. Though they've got a guy in Tarrell Ellen that's running the point guard assisted turnover issio near three shoots early for three. B J. Taylor one of the top five players in regards to being able to get to the

free throw line in this tournament. VCU second best defensive efficiency in the country. But I will say this with regards to Central Florida, when they covered eight out of nine games towards that late half stretch of the season, they were shooting right around thirty eight to thirty nine percent from three of themselves. I think that Central Florida has too much firepower, especially with mark AND's Evans at the very best being heard. If not out, I gotta

takes Central Florida. Okay, you've got to. You don't have to. What I'm saying here is if if it's not a strong play for you, let's make sure we mentioned that as well, not as strong as this is a pretty strong I do like Central Florida a lot. I've been on them for quite a while, all right, that's the kind of language I like right there. So it's a Taco Zion second round game is what you're looking at here.

That'll be fun, all right, So this is one point sat Greg's got them advancing both straight up and a T S in this case. Adam, your thoughts here, Yeah, I think Central Florida is a much better team than uh the v c U is. I mean both are strong defensively, Aubrey Dawkins, Johnny Dawkins kids a really good player, uh six six junior guard who can who can shoot it? B J Taylor obviously, as as Gregg mentioned, so Central

Florida has offensive pieces. The VCU doesn't. Even if Marcus Evans does play, I don't think VCU has the weapons. They're also much smaller, and it's not just in comparison to Taco Fall who's seven six for those that haven't seen him, but you know, Marcus Santa Silva is a six seven, two hundred and fifty pound forward from RECU, an unusual player who blocked shots and does a lot of different things. But size wise, they have no chance. And I think UCF is is really confident right now.

I think I think if this game is now even closed, it should even being eight nine much of them, Wow, not even close. He says all right, five twelve in the East Mississippi State. The five ten this year straight up eight quad one wins for the Bulldogs. The number twelve seated Liberty Fla names twenty eight and six straight

up on the year their Atlantic Suntorney champs. They had to share the regular season title in the Atlantic Sun. First season in the Atlantic Sun for the Liberty Flames after twenty seven in the Big South Um which I believe they won that tournam in. This is a Friday night game in San Jose, Mississippi State. Seven point favorites. Great and if you remember that two thousand thirteen Liberty team won the worst ever make the n C Double

A tournament, not so much a case here. Liberty, a team that really likes slow, slow games down plays out one of the slowest tempos out there in the country. Mississippi State. They've got a bunch of explosive guards. Lamar peters Porson twelve point shoots over forty some from three. They're currently without Nick Wetherspoon, but Quinn Dairy has been absolutely sinsational since his brother got suspended. He has been

doing a great job down low. Now they're not getting the versatility out of Eric Coletman, he got moved to the bench. Ever since then he has been a completely lost cause. In this one, I actually advanced Mississippi State, But if I were to play this game on the spread, I would take Liberty. They have a gout by the name of Georgio Pacheco or t Is. He only averages right round eight points per game, but he shoots nearly forty eight percent from three when the best three point

shooters out there in this entire field. And then you've got a couple other guys for Liberty that they just do a good job of being able to know their role, playing sound defense. So I think they're gonna be able to hang in this one. I think Mississippi State pulls on something like a three four point win. Alright, so Mississippi State to advance in your bracket. But Liberty, if you played it, would you play it against the number? Oh? Absolutely?

I actually grabbed the opening number because Liberty was catching a lot of points and then that got steamed down. Who am I asking would you play it? It's Greg Peterson, for God's sakes, Adam. Adam Stanko is here, Adam, your thoughts on this game. Uh yeah, I agree once again. I mean, in this case, I think we're talking about two teams that play well on defensive end, and and as Greig points out for Liberty, For Liberty, they like to slow you down. They like to move the ball,

and they're perfectly comfortable playing playing that pace. But those Mississippi State, they're fine with playing a game that slowed down. Ben how Land is the coach. I mean, from people that have forgotten that Ben Holland is at Mississippi State. When Mary Witherspoon's an awesome guard will take it over. Missisippi they much more talented in the non conference. They beat Clemson, they beat Sinsey, they'd be Watford. This is

a team that's that's really talented. They've been strong all year long on the defensive end, and plus they're one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. The Mississippi State comfortable playing that so because we won't see it necessarily a high score. Missisipi States just too talented. Even though Liberty does have Scottie James, a fun, a

fund major guy to watch. But but I do like Mississippi State in this game, although I do think it'll be close just because I don't think we're gonna see some runaway score here. All right, winner in Mississippi State Liberty will take on the winner in San Jose Friday night. Also a game between Votech and St. Louis. That's the fourth thirteen game winner that takes on the Mississippi State Liberty winner. That is vo Tech is live here, Greg.

There's a good basketball team twenty four and eight this year, uh St. Louis. The Billikins were a ten turney champs twenty three and twelve votech double digit favorite ten and a half points here, and it's gonna be interesting to see if Justin Robinson plays in this game or not. I think that a lot of hinges on that. From what I've been hearing, Justin Robinson should be a go

for the n c Double A tournament. And with since St. Louis, you've got the second worst free throw shooting team in the country, only to Manhattan, who we all know to college basketball back to the Dark Ages, that is a wolf for them. St. Louis has a good job on the offensive glass, but I think they carry blacks here could be better than Hassan French down low. And then

when you take a look at Virginia Tech. They're getting some good production out of the guards like Nikkia Walker, Alexander You've got tie Outlaw being able to ride around three. This is a spot where I'm not just laying the

points with Virginia Tech. I'm gonna advance them in my bracket as well, number eleven team in regards to offensive efficiency in the country votech Adam not only advancing here, I would imagine from you, but also you think might uh might give Duke some trouble down the road here in the tournament. They could, but I think that in order to do so they as great points out They're

gonna need Justin Robinson. It's unlikely that we're going to see him, uh from from the reports that I've seen, but if he does play, I mean that that backcourt alone between Robinson and Alexander Walker is difficult. And obviously

black Sheet has been playing at a high level. So certainly Virginia Tech I think defensively they're terrific, But in order to go deep in this turning in and as I always point out, you're going to need uh premier point guard and Justin Robinson certainly is that so in order for them to hang with with any of the big dogs, they're gonna have to get Justin Robertson back. But meanwhile, on this game, I mean St. Louis is just brutal offensively, a strong defensive team, but just a

shocking team that even you know made the field. I mean, they came into the eight ten tournament losing five of their last seven and one four and four days and they were even down the same fun Events who by fifteen in the first half. So for St. Louis to win this game would would be an absolute stunner, or to even hang with them, I think. I think Virginia

Tech on a whole another level than St. Louis. The other half of the East bracket, Maryland gonna take on the winner of that Belmont Temple game we talked about. That's the play in game. Uh So we'll weight on

that because obviously no line for that one. But the winner of Maryland versus Belmont or Temple will take on the three four winner L s U and Yale that's Jacksonville that's in Jacksonville on Thursday night, as well as well as the Maryland game L s U. Out of the SEC the eleventh seeded team here overall in the tournament by the Committee against the IVY League champ Yale Bulldogs.

Seven and a half now is the number on l s U. This is way down from its open I still like the seven and a half greg at seven and a half, I still would take Yale, but I think that the value is starting to get dried up here. I think that LSU was able to win this game because they do have that front court. You've got nos Reed, a seven footer or with some good versatility, pulls and rebound shoots threes. Darius Days same way, a little bit smaller, but he's able to do a lot of Cavell Bigbie

Williams as a manned out low. You've got Javant, a smart guy that does a great job out there at the guard spot, is able to generate steals. Along with Traymont Waters. Water is one of the top five players in this fielding guards to generating steals. He shot from three point range speeder after the first seven games of the season. And then for Yale, you've got a guy that's gonna play in the NBA. In my only Blake

Reynolds pours in eleven points shooting really forty three. I think that Yale is gonna be able to hang in this one. This is something I see being more or less of five to six point game. I would take Yale on the spread, but I would take ls Hug to advance Adam safe for you. Yeah, yeah, I I feel the exact same way. I think this l SU team is in obviously in somewhat disarray. I mean when you've got a head coaching situation like they're going with on with will Wade and trying to figure out what's

going on with their head coach. I mean that always becomes confusing. The talent wise, you know again, point guard play is is critical and Tamonta Waters is fantastic. He's an NBA player, uh As Gregg points out no as reads a fellow NBA players huge recruit um and then cavelled Big Bi Williams. I think is an X factor, just that size and defensive ability that they have down low. The one interesting thing for Yale is that obviously a couple of years ago we did see them win a game,

you know, uh, win a game in the tournament. Um, But that's back when they have a Kai Mason. You now on Baylor. Lake Reynolds are only player that played in that in that game, uh Mi Aoni is a fantastic player and he's going to be in the NBA, so he's gonna be fun to watch for Yale. And George Brunners as a first little guy who's six eight point guard in high school. But still Yale is much better and different and more athletic than people expect the

Yale team to be. But they're not as good as l s U. So as long as the l s U feel somewhat confident in at least their interim head coach, Um, I would I would expect that L s U wins this game, but but it could be a little uglier than they're typically used to me when I took over that semifinal game against Princeton late in Yale's win on Saturday, on their way after beating Harvard to the IVY League title, Louisville is at Minnesota's the seven ten game in the

East Final two brackets here, uh does Minnissan des Moines? On Thursday? Does Minnesota belong in this tournament? Greig? I do feel like they did. I think the fact that they were able to make a run in the Big Ten tournament really allowed them to be in the n C Double A Tournament. Then getting that win late in the season their home floor against Perduell, so help with that. Said, Minnesota, what are you going to get from three point range? A mere coffee? Was a little bit better towards the

end of the year. Gabe Causcher, though he's a hit or miss player. I still remember watching a game when he played against North Florida and was like, oh, of ten from distance. Meanwhile, Louisville, you've got Jordan Awara. He's a very good stretch player for this team. Average seventeen points, shoots in the mid thirties from three point rains, Christian Cunningham assisted turnover ratio of two and a half. He

does sensational work. Louisville's defense improved throughout the season. I think it will be too much in the Battle of Patino's. I'm gonna take Louisville with Chris mac as a head coach, Louisville five point favorites here on the number. What did you say, Greg, and you like on the number? I like Louisville on the spread, and I like Louisville to advance. All right, Rich Petino probably get some help from his dad maybe here going up against Louisville. We shall see,

Adam your thoughts on this one. Yeah, I actually like Minnesota and this one. Um. I like the I like the front line of Minnesota. Jordan Murphy's one of the best players, and you know, best front core players in Minnesota's had quite some time. The six sixth senior forward is double double machine, so that's automatic. I just don't love the offensive firepower of Louisville. Certainly, I love all

of Chris Max teams. They play so hard, tremendous, defensively, efficient on the offensive, and they play at a slow pace. And I just think that down low Minnesota is tougher. And I think so if this game is the rock fight, I'm trusting that the Minnesota front line more than I am. Louisville war is a good player, He's expanded his game. But I like Minnesota and this one in Louisville, Minnesota seven ten game plays the winner of Michigan State and Bradley.

That's the two fifteen game in the East Bradley the Braves Missouri Valley Turney champions Um. This game is in Des Moines on Thursday, and of course Michigan State. They beat Michigan three times. This has been the biggest quibble of the selection committee. They get stuck in a bracket with Duke while Michigan gets the Zags. Two out of the last three years, Greg Michigan State has lost to a double digit seed. Is this a game where they do that again? Last time they were do see they

lost in the first round. I don't think that'll happen. I am taking Bradley with the eighteen and half points. You've got a guy in Darnell Brown that runs a point in average third team points, shoots nearly forty five pp for three. Elijah Child's Olmo is actually quite decent, but Nick Word is gonna eat them alive. You've got Matt McQuaid shooting over forty percent for three. Cash Is Winston one of the most spectacular point guards out there

in college basketball. So take the points. If you're gonna bet this game with Bradley, but advanced Michigan State and your bracket, you're advancing Michigan State. I gather, Adam, would you take the points here? Yeah? I think Michigan State is going to destroy Bradley in this in this game, I mean, yeah, as uh as great points out, I mean, nick Lord underneath is just going to be a huge

problem for Bradley. But it's not just him. I mean we know that you know, Kenny Goens is a top level defensive uh standout, defends almost every position on the floor. They've your kill and the athletes they have guys um with who are angry right now. You know, I think about about their seat and the fact that they're with Duke and not only that, but you know, if Minnesota advances like I expect, they also have to play a big team in the second round. You talk about State

struggling with double digit seeds. So I mean, I think that this team is angry. They've they've had a bad paste in their mouth since since is sort of attaching tobacco last year against Syracuse. And I think that Michigan State rules. I think they're hungry to play and castus. Winston of course, will control Temple tempo of the entire game, so I expect this game to be twenty five or

more from Michigan State. Winner of the East bracket will take on the winner of the West will get to that next right here in March Madness special on the Numbers Game at Visa. Now back to a Numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. By the way, if you're looking for help with your office bracket beyond what we're giving to you here today with Greg Peterson and Adam Stanko. Um,

maybe you're heading a Vegas for March Madness. Whatever the case, Visas College Basketball Tournament Betting Guide will be packed with all the stats and analysis you need to be a winner. Bracket advice from Brent Musburger, Matt Human's, Dave Toulie, Steve McKinnon, and this gentleman to my right, Greg oops Peterson, along with other Visa experts. There's Zion on the cover. If the shoe fits, look at Zion. Zion is the greatest

basketball college basketball player I've seen since Patrick Ewing. I know Patrick Ewing wasn't beloved, but in terms of buzz for the game, uh. It's a ninety page digital magazine by the way, with Zion on the cover, will be ready for download today and is designed to be used as a reference throughout the three week Big Dance. It's four nine nine. You can order your copy at Visa

dot com slash subscribe. While you're there, check out our best price to get the Guy plus fifty two weeks and point Spread weekly in a chance to win ten thousand dollars and visas Beat the Spread challenge, Stay at the South Point, hang out with Brent Musburger on set. Can't beat that. All the details at Visa dot com slash subscribe. Let's get to the West Region with Great Peterson at Adam Stanko. It's Gill Alexander Gonzaga against the winner of Fairleigh Dickinson Prairie View, A and m SO

will pass on that. Obviously no line for that game in Salt Lake City on Thursday night, but the winner of that we'll take on the winner of the eight nine game between Syracuse and Baylor, also in Salt Lake City on Thursday night. We flashed that up on the screen. Gregg, your thoughts on this one. Now, Baylor is a team that actually plays a little bit of zone themselves, so they're gonna be a little bit better prepared than most teams For Syracuse. I do think that highest battle is

going to be back in this game. Even if he's not, though, I think that Syracuse should be able to roll because Baylor has her injury issues themselves. McKay mason, you can tell it was not right at the end of the year. King McClure has been dealing with some injuries as well. This is a team that has fallen act Earth ever since getting off to that great running late January early February. Out there in the Big ten or out there in

the Big twelve. Because Baylor comes into the n C Double A Tournament having lost each of the last four games, and I actually do like the way that Buddy Beaheim has been able to come off the bench and given Syracuse from scoring as well. So I do think that Syracuse starting to get some offense outside there. I guess you could call it big three, and that is gonna be enough to be able with them to victory and

cover this game, alright. So like Ques two point favorites here against Baylor, I think I think everybody has the same reaction to Buddy Beheim when he comes in and does well, Everyone's like, oh, yeah, there you go. People feel good about that. Adam, you want cues here as well. Yeah, I like Syracuse. I mean, I think Syracuse has learned a little bit to play out without Tais battle, so even if they don't have him, uh, that won't be too significant. And you guys are dead on him and

Buddy Beehi, I'm shooting threes. Um, you know, like he's Kevin her Um. It's pretty fun to watch there, so uh yeah, and Baylor that I think that you cannot discount the fact that they lost four straight heading into the tournament as great points out Kevin Herder, the winner of the Steve Blake never thought this guy would be great out of the University of Maryland Award uh for the current currently uh the Steve Lake Memorial Award for

Maryland Turms fans. Alright. Also in the West bracket here, this is the game that seth Walder from ESPN Analytics yesterday on the show called the biggest percentage of his Giant Killers win probability for him for Murray State the Racers, which I find a little low by the way. For the Racers, who are the twelfth seed here the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament champions, of course, led by John Morant, who folks A projecting as the number two pick in

the draft. Now in some mock drafts, they're taking on number five Markette Golden Eagles. This game is in Hartford on Thursday night. Marquette Gregg a four and a half point favorite, and these are the only two players in the n c Double A tournament that average over twenty four and a half points per game. It's gonna be a fun one. But what sets me over the top of the Murray State is the fact that they played

such sound defense. They're in among the top ten teams in the country with the guards to two point shooting percentage on offense, but then on defense, they were one of the best teams that being able to guard the arc out there in college basketball. You've obviously got John Morane. Parson Overtown says he does get loose with the ball.

He has five turnovers per game. But we saw Marcus Howard he was affected by his risks a little bit in that game against St. John's a couple of days ago, So I do think that that's a little bit of an issue John Morane. I think he's coming into this game healthy. He's had a lot of time to rest up after that Ohio Valley Conference tournament, and I think that Murray State wins this game, alright, So taking them on the spread and I'm taking them to advance in

the five twelves. I'm with you. I got Murray State advancing. John Moran will be the best player on the court period this game. Adam Stanko from the Catta Shoot podcast. You aboard Murray State here, I'm onboard Murray State. It's crazy to think that we're talking about two teams that you have to love what the committee did here putting up guys that can both, you know, go for forty points in a game against each other. Just incredible individual

talents and Howard and and Moran. But Moran is on another level, the only guy in in college basketball history and ten um. I like Murray State a lot in this game. And outside of Marcus Howard, there's just not a lot there for Marquette other than the Houser brothers. But I'm all over Murray State in this game. The only thing I worry about is that everybody's on Murray State anecdotally, right, Like, there's certain games here where I just worry that everybody is on somebody, you know how

that usually goes winner of Marquette Murray stayed. By the way, we'll take on the winner of the fourth thirteen game in the West between Florida State and Vermont. We have a Greg Peterson special alert here at Ladies and Gentlemen. Florida State seven and seven on the season straight up there ten and a half point favorites in this game against the Catamounts of Vermont. Vermont the American East regular season and tourney champions. This game also in Hartford on

Thursday night, Vermont was seven and six. They beat U NBC in the Americans Championship on Sunday morning. Was a Saturday morning, I believe it was. But you've got Leonard Hamilton's versus Vermont, Greg in Hartford. Your thoughts, sir, This is a classic game where Florida is gonna win the game out right, but they're not going to cover this bread. That just seems to be the way that Leonard Hamilton's operates, right. Florida State has so much size out there guarding the forever.

You've got so many guys are like six ft seven, six ft eight out there. Phil co For seems to be coming into his own after you get that three to send that Virginia Tech game to overtime, and then you have to like what Cross christ Maji is able to do downlow. He's obviously got some great size. Terrence Man shoots from three. But Vermont, you've got a guy and Anthony Lamb. He pours in twenty one points for

a game. He's able to shoot some threes. And you've got a trio of Duncan brothers out there in the starting lineup for Vermont. They're not gonna beat themselves. They're probably gonna slow this game down. I think Vermont probably loses this game by like seven eight points. So I'm gonna take Vermont on this bread and I'm gonna take Flarida State to advance. It's kind of registered on the

Giant Killers. Uh on the Giant Killers meter yesterday for Seth Walter as well Chance by his numbers for a month. I don't see it happening either. Um, But I totally I'm on board with what you're saying, Greg Uh. A win for f s U, but not a cover. Adam. Yeah, this one's tricky because, on one hand, um, I don't think that Florida State has the offensive weapons to really put up a lot of points in this game. That said, Vermont is going to have a ton of issues trying

to score. I mean, Anthony Lamb is a talented score but he does it all as a six six post player. Uh, you know, playing against America East competition. Great footwork, some good moves in the post. That's not gonna work against this largest state front line and Kavin Gilly and company. So I just think Flarda States loaded US. I think they're extremely confident after the Virginia win. So I think Florida State rolls through this even though they have some

shooting lows, offensive putbacks all that. So I would expect them to actually win by you know twelve. All right, let's sneak in a break here. Mike Trout's gonna count his money and during the break again, four hundred thirty million dollars twelve years. See you later, Bryce Harbor with all your short lived records. We'll get to the second part of the West bracket here as we continue going through all of them. Will do some props as well from the West Gate, whole bunch of that before we

get to the second half of March Madness. It's all on a numbers game. Stick around right here at Visa down back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. By the way, if you're coming down to Las Vegas and the South Point Visas, Brent Musburger will be hosting

Betting and Buds with Brent. It's Wednesday. It's tomorrow night, thirty pm right here at the South Point Hotel Casino with Christie Andrews, Vinnie Molly Hullo plus NASCAR driver and former Georgetown Hoys basketball player Brendan Gone will be there as well. Mike Palm from the d Las Vegas Visas team of experts breaking down the teams, the lines, the bracket, will take questions. Take the show for broadcast on Visa

and that tomorrow night. It is free, by the way, and there will be one dollar bud wise of brands available. I should mention that from five to eight pm in the South Points Grand View Lounge. That's tomorrow evening right by the Racing Book five thirty pm. Hope to see you their final half of the UH or the second half I should say, of the West bracket. Buffalo is gonna play the winner of that a s U St.

John's playing game, which we've already covered. The winner of that Buffalo game will take on the winner of the three four team game, which takes place in Telsa on Friday. This is Texas Tech, the number ten overall seed, by the way, in this entire bracket, they're the number three seed here in the West. They are two touchdown favorites over the north of Northern Kentucky, who are the Horizon League Tourney champs. I got a future on Texas Tech.

I'm hoping they advanced you. Bullish on Texas Tech. I do like Texas Tech. They've got the number one defensive efficiency out there in the country, one of the best teams in in guarding the three plane arc as well. I am gonna take the two touch shots on this rout Northern Kentucky. They've got good six ft eight big man Andrew McDonald that shoot from three averages nineteen points

nine and a free bounce per game. You've got sharp that table shoot some threes for this team as well, So you've got some good guard play out there for Northern Kentucky. They like to really be able to get out there. They like to be able to score a lot of points, which is a little bit unlike nor normal Northern Kentucky teams. But I do like the way that Texas techas stepping up. David Moretti has been shooting over three, one of the best free throw shooters out

there in this entire tournament. You've got John Mooney being able to step up out there in the back court, and then Dreko is a very good job blocker as well. I got Texas Tech going all the way to the final four. We'll get your guys final four picks coming up later on the show. Adam, your thoughts here. The Texas Tech's been fantastic. Jared Culver is a lottery pick, uh, David Amoretty, as as Greig Gets pointed out, one of the best shotters in the country. Matt Mooney is a

tough kid. This team playing terrific on the defensive and and they're rolling offensively, extremely confident and for Northern Kentucky, I mean, I just don't love them. They're okay as an offense, but really against high level compety and it's gonna be no question. So I think we see a runaway law runaway victory here for for Texas Day All right,

Final two first round games in the West. Number seven Nevada the Wolfpack darlings in the pre flop futures market this year, where they were gotten down a ten to one, maybe even single digits the one at one point. Uh They're the number seven seed in the West. There two point favorites here over the Gators in Florida of the SEC. Gators were nineteen and fifteen wolf Pack Mountain West Conference regular season champs. This is in Des Moines on Thursday.

Every Gators game, Gregg seems to go down to the final position. It seems like it lead does and I do think that Florida is gonna be able to win this game. Jen has really been emerging for this team. I like the way that they're playing. They rely a little bit too much on the three point shop, but no a lot coming off the bench being able to give it this team some production. I like that Cavon Allen one of the best players in the free throw line in the country. And Nevada they're just not a

good three point shooting team. They do a great job of not training the ball over, but this is a team that they just settled for shots too much. They could get to the rim whenever they wanted for a layup, but they just choose too. I remember they had that run last year. They have the two big comebacks right in the first and second round. Nevada. But this is a this is a deeper Nevada team this year. Right, Uh, They're only about seven deep. This is not a deep

Nevada team. Well it was five or six last year, wasn't it. It was about six deep, I would say so relatively speaking anyway, Adam, Yeah, I'm all over Nevada and this one. I think the mat has been sort of underrated. I almost even think I think underseated. I think we sort of forgot about them as teams lost four games all year. They they're efficient somehow on the offensive end. But I think the biggest strength for Nevada is the Musselman squad. Just play so loose and yet

they have all of this leadership. They're one of the oldest teams in the country. The Martin, the Martin brothers both seniors. Then Jordan Caroline Jazz Johnson is the JR. I just think this team has so much experience and they play so loose and free, and that's what enables them to to have both success latent games and also not to be worried when they're down big. And we saw it last year, and I think Florida is just average offensively, good defensive team. Different team than we're not

used to for Florida. But I'm all over and about in this one, alright, So difference of opinion there. And finally, the winner of the Nevada Florida game will take on the two fifteen game. Michigan and the Wolverine is the eighth overall seed, two seed here in this region against Montana, the Grizzlies Big Sky regular season attorney champs. They were twenty six and eight. So rematch up a first round

game from last year? Is is that right? It was a three four team matchup, and I don't think that Montana is gonna be able to play the upsite here, but they've got a guy, and say you Bridget that shoots over fifty, that shoots over from three. Mod Rory has really been plugging things up for this team. Divin Dorsey, a transfer from Washington's able to hit some threes. So I'll take Montana to cover the spread, but I'll take Michigan to advance. Alright, twenty seconds here Adam Michigan to advance.

I'm assuming if you played this, would you play this fifteen and a half? Would you stay away? I'd stay away. Travis Secure is no outstanding coach at Montana, at mard Rury's at Oregon Transfer. But they can't win this game because Jamarroico one of their best players. Uh, he was injured after hardfall mr his last twelve games the year. Just just not as good as a team after a co went down. All right, we'll do props from the

west Gate. We'll take a break on the brackets. Will resume with the Midwest and South or South and Midwest in that order coming up. But props from the West Gate Seatings Conference props. Some interesting stuff. Greg Peterson, Adam Stanko. It's Brackett Pealoza right here on a numbers game at Visa and stick around right here now live from the Visa in studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander Brackett Pellousa this morning on a numbers

game here at Visa. Nothing but college basketball bracket by Brackett, straight up a t s. Greg Peterson, Adams Stanko got two more regions to get to we'll get their final four picks as well. Greg and I were just talking off air. We're saying earlier I have Providence in the n I T. By the way, at serious x UP Channel two or four, Visa dot Com, Visa have fu O TV probably mentioned that, um, we have the playing games tonight, but the n I T and in some

respects is more interesting. I was mentioning, how uh with that Providence Arkansas game today, there's no Daniel Gafford. He is going pro so he's done so probably in still only a six point favorite. Curious. But then we were also talking Hofster is like a ten point favorite against and excuse me, NC State is a ten point favorite against Hofstra, doesn't NC State And it's funny because you

you countered with Hofstra. We agree like NC States the type of team that doesn't show for this, and Hofsted the type of team that this means everything to them exactly. And then you got Hofter who actually opened up at eleven point underdog in far away places. It's just absolutely confusing. You got justin ripe form and I have it pours in twenty six points per game. Eli Pemberton shot from three and with NC State, what are you going to

get out of this team? After they were talking about oh, we don't know what net rankings means and everything like that, three or whatever, they ended up in net rankings NC State they did so well and it didn't get in the big dance net rankings Greg. Again, the committee didn't end up really adhering to them in terms of who they let in and who they let out. Yet when they assessed teams, they brought up with net rankings and they said, oh, well, these are the team as you

beat in Quadrant one based on net rankings. So it was this weird thing where where you ended up didn't seem to meet as didn't seem to mean as much as the results of games against net rankings teams. Total inconsistency. Yeah, it was just a jumbled up mess. I'm glad I wasn't doing as much pray echetology this year because it's like, what do you make out of this? Yeah? I think they listen overall. Again, I think they did a great

job once they put Belmont in. I think everything else became sort of a secondary, uh nitpicky type of thing. But that would be the one inconsistency from an analytic standpoint, let us do some props here before we get back to the business at hands South and Midwest regions. These are from the West Gate. These came out yesterday, and I'm curious just obviously you don't have to play all these, but if there's anything that sticks out, First of all,

they did things by conference here over at the West Gate. Uh, you see it on the screen right now at Visa dot Com Vica. Happened Foobo TV. Uh, every conference pretty much A C, A C C, Atlantic ten, Big East, Big ten, Big twelve, and Mountain West on your screen right now. But on your screen right now. But basically, what they did was take um a group of teams from or I guess, all the teams from each of those conferences that are in the tournament, and they put

a wind total on them. So the A C C most prominently with seven teams, their wind total here is fifteen. Obviously they got Duke and Caroline and Virginia among those seven teams. Greg, But is anything there on that screen anyway that leaps off the page for you. I would go under a half a win for the Atlantic Town. I don't think the VC is going to be able to pull off the upset against Central Florida. I guess you wouldn't call it an upset centsor of the eight seat.

It just feels like an upset to me because I think Central Florida is a better team, and then St. Louis has absolutely no shot against Virginia Tech in my opinion. Adam Stako, who of course also authored not only the Catch and Shoot podcast which is the host of, but has these hoop quick hitters that are available at pure hoops media dot com if you need more information needed, sixty eight different videos about a minute minute half long

on all these teams. Anything on this screen that leads off the page for you, Adam, uh No, I think fifteen for for the a sec seems a bit much. Um. I just think when you add them up in in total, obviously, I don't think we're going to see, you know, final four runs from from all of these uh ACC teams. So I think that's one that that stands out. And uh The other one to me is UH is Big East. I'm not necessarily in love with the Big East this year. St.

John's I don't expect to win there. They're playing game Marquette. We talked about could lose, which would lead Seton halland Villanova to come up with four wins in total. And uh, I don't see that happening. So those are the two that I would say stand out. Yeah, A C. C. Obviously you're you're counting on big runs there to get over fifteen if you want. The over for for Duke and Carolina and Virginia could happen, but that's what you're

banking on. Obviously. In that case, let's leif the screen because there's more conferences and they do these by seatings as well over there at the Westgate. Great job, here's some more conferences. Ohio Valley Pack, twelve sec West Coast Conference. Um, we got uh, then we have then we have seedings after that. So they do it by seeds. They also put together the win totals for the four number one seeds, number two seeds, number three seeds on down the line.

For number one it's thirteen by the way, for Duken, Zaga, Carolina, and Virginia. Greg anything here with the remainder of the conferences or the first three seeds. I think in regards to the seeds, I think that I would go over town on the number two seeds. I think that the two Seeds are gonna have a very good run of things.

The one night Sea getting knocked off Earlies Michigan, I don't think they make it past the first weekend, but past that, I do think that we're going to see a lot of two seeds be able to make the Sweet sixth scene and Elite eight. Two Seeds by the way, Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee. So you go over on that, Greg at ten, Yes, Sir Adam anything here. Yeah, I like

the two seeds as well. But I also I'll tell you that the Pact twelve except Origin alone to uh to win a couple of games and in this tournament. So plus your figure, Arizona State is gonna have a really good shot against St. John's. I know everybody's been down on the PAC twel, but right now it's it's not Washington that the team to look out for. It's it's it's Oregan. So I think one and a half

is certainly doable for the PAC twelve. Westgate also has the remainder of the Seeds here on the next screen, Seeds four through ten. Anything there, Greg taking a look at this one. I think that the number nine seeds have a chance to be able to do a little bit of something. I've got Washington winning a game, and then I also have Central Florida I mentioned a little bit earlier, so I would have that as a little bit of a push at two. So that means I

would go under on the number eight seeds. So under on eight, push on nine, under on eight, which is said at two and a half, that's Mississippi, Syracuse, Utah State VCU. Over on the nine seeds too, is the number there Baylor, Central Florida, Oklahoma and Washington stanko anything? Uh No, I think number seven seeds I I liked about a actually know now that I think about it about it is probably the only one out of that

out of that grouping. Um no, there's nothing that I'm I'm in love with when we go through some of these, uh, some of these all right, let's go to the next one. Here again these props from the West Gate, every shop putting out props. Now here's where they get pretty interesting that these these are all over the place. Total number one seeds to reach the final four. Uh, you have a will and number one seed win the tournament. Will any a C C team? Then they go conference by conference?

Will a team from each particular conference win the title? Will they reach the final four? Um? Then you have will any Yeah, there's pretty much all over the place, your conference by conference both to win the championship GREG, and then you have some other specialty props as well. Anything on this screen. I think the prop of oil in a CC team win the national championship is so interesting because you do have three number one seeds. You've

got you, You've got Virginia, you've got North Carolina. I do think that somewhere a lot of value there with the A C C, which it's almost sort of like the south Point versus a Field sort of prop, only you've now got a prop of those three number one seeds versus the field. Well, you seized on one that. I like, will any a SEC team win the national Championship? We have it right there. It opens at minus one ten. I would assume someone would have banged that already on

the S, and in fact that's the case. That's at minus one fifty now in the S. I still think that's value though at minus one fifty. I like that as well. Um, anything there Adam. Yeah, I'm the same way. And in terms of the SEC, I think you have to look at the idea that not only two, but North Carolina has has the weapons to to make a push. And of course we've talked about Virginia people sleeping on them and the idea that I really believe that we're

gonna see Duke Virginia Gonzaga win this thing. And if you go with that logic, then you know, hey, it's a two and three chance um that you're getting you a national champion there. And then I would also say for a Big ten team to win the title of the no side of that. I I just want to see a situation in which we see a Big ten national champion this year. So funny that you two hit on the ones that I liked about the yes on the a SEC and then no on the Big Ten.

What's that? What does that minus? What's that minus four fifty? Does that say there? Minus four fifty? That's that's huge? Right? I still think that's a play. And you know, the last team that won the title from the Big Ten, the Flintstones of Michigan State in two thousand. It's been a whild kids, some Mateen Cleaves. All right, we got another another page here, another page Mateen Cleaves, one of the great names ever. Okay, so this is by specific teams.

Now Sweet sixteen propositions will certain team, lots of them offered here. Get to the sweet sixteen. These are yes or no propositions. And then there's a first round proposition there at the bottom, which is the largest margin of victory in the first round, and that is set. What's the number of there, Jeff alf thirty seven and a half. So you're betting against the Gonzaga or a Duke or ever Virginia. Maybe none of the two seeds just blow it out their opponent thirty seven and a half? Would

you would you bet that one over runner? If I had to play it, I actually would go over. Because every year in one of these n C Double A Tournament games, we say, oh, thirty seven and a half is a lot. You've got a couple of up tempo teams. Are sixteen seeds Iona, they don't play a whole lot of defense. Theyve be playing a little bit better recently.

But then the winner of Prairie View an M versus F to you, that is going to be a game in which you get gott Zag the number one team and regards the offensive efficiency in the country, that could turn into just a blood bath. Well, you make a good point, because those spreads could be like the look ahead spreads on those I think our thirty or thirty five, respectively, So thirty seven and a half not that much more obviously.

Then Oh, if fairly Dickinson winds up listening to Prairie View A and M, I'd be all about that over okay, anything on the individual teams here, Adam or on that profitself. Well, it's funny that hoops Peederson says that about about get Zag at Prairie View A and M. I would I would drive to go catch that game because I'd love to see just how tired guys on Gazaga would be for having, you know, wide open, fast break layups. They say, exhaust themselves with the opportunities they'd get. Um. I think

that Auburn is going to make the Sweet sixteen. I'm I'm all about that. Jared Harper is one of the premier point guards, so quick, almost impossible to stop. Um and the way that Kansas played second half of the year, I I just not that impressed. Auburn, to me, um is a team that we could certainly see in the in the sweet sixteen. What's the yes on that, Jeff, right now? For Auburn making the sweet sixteen, that is plus one oh five plus money for you. At least

that was the opener. We'll see if that moved at all in Auburn plus one oh five. One more page of this, one more page. Let's do one more again. He's from the west Gate Tournament wins, and they're all kinds of different variations of this tournament wins by teams On the left hand side of the screen at Fubo TV, Visa appen uh, Visa dot com. You got Gonzaga, Kentucky, Carolina, Virginia, Duke, Michigan,

Michigan State, and Tennessee. Each of those teams individually, they set a number three and a half in the case of Gonzaga, for instance, in their region three and a half of Virginia where you see, and by the way, three and a half for Duke as well everybody else. There on the left side, two and a half is where it's set the numbers for those teams respectively. And then on the right side, by the way, no parlays

on all this. They stipulate, Uh, these are teams pitted against each other, who's going to have the most wins, So you have matchups that are created. Duke Virginia, Duke Gonzaga on down the line, anything here, Greg, I do think that Kentucky will be able to win their matchup against Tennessee. I think that Kentucky makes a deeper run. And then I do like over two and a half wins from Michigan State. I think that this is a team that can certainly, at the very least be able

to make the Elite Eight. I know that they didn't get the World's Greatest Job, but it's not like they're having to go through murders Row in order to get the Elite eight either. So I like Michigan State excellent use of murders Row. By the way, Greg, I appreciate that. Hey you, Jeff, you liked one hear on the right to Buffalo. Yes, I love Buffalo on plus money and against Maryland right now that still sits at Buffalo plus one ten and Maryland minus one thirty. The Bulls are

really good. The Bulls are gonna have a favorable matchup in that round. Of sixty four and you know what, C J. Massenburg and that offense is gonna have a real chance to give Texas Texas good defense fits. I think Buffalo is a solid bet to get not only past around one, but into the sweet sixteen. And Maryland Bell Belmont Temple. I'd like the eleven regardless of who wins tonight. I still love you Terps, but Belmont could beat you, you know, eleven six games, assuming Belmont gets

past Temple. Adam last thing anything here, well, I really like Virginia and Goza, you know, is chalk into into the final four. And so that to me is what what stands out. Florida State seems to be the only team that would terrify me if I was Gonzaga. But um, I still think they get by Florida State. But Keen Dagen Virginia, I really like their alright South region on deck right here, bracket by bracket, Greg Peterson, Adam Stango, It's Gill Alexander. It's a numbers game right here at Visa.

Back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. Off Twitter. This from J t ds A one Gilden, you get the memo to wear a jacket for the show g Unit Underscore eighty one. That's Greg's Twitter handed looking like as though he's going to seal a deal. Sharp. I wonder if the afternoon guys will dress up. I do not follow fashion trends. I set them, Greg. I'm not following you guys with the jackets doing what I

want to do. But you look great. Man beats the wrinkle shirt last week. Yeah, it certainly does. And we've got a lot of hair product in right now. I like it. A lot of hair products all right. By the way, whenever the mic you whenever a big contract in baseball happens, people throughout Bobby Bonilla, Um, Bobby Bania getting one point one nine million dollars UH still per

year here and so um. Basically, what you're seeing is that after after the length of Mike Trout's contract, which is still just ridiculous again fourred thirty million dollars twelve years. And again, if you're Bryce Harper, you should be so angry at Scott Boris right now. But Bobby Benia will get a million plus per year four years after the Trout contract completes. So Bobby Benia is still with this

greatest deferred payment contract ever. Good for him, Jeff, you want to say something, No, that's that's that's just my my New York Mets doing it in New York Met fashion. That's right, well done, Mets. Good for Bobby Benia. Let's start with the South region. Now, I think you can debate which the toughest region is. I'm gonna go ahead and Greg and Adam and say that the South is

probably the easiest of the regions. I don't think Virginia has much of an excuse here there the number one seed there, twenty nine and three on the year, number two overall seed. But under Tony Bennett, we're gonna throw out the game against you, NBC. We're gonna throw out all the games against non fifteen, any game against any team that's not fifteen or sixteen UM non fifteen sixteen games.

Tony Bennett four and five straight up in the tournament held his teams under sixty points in four of them. They're taking on Gardner Webb, the Running Bulldogs. The Big South Turney Champs is in Columbia, South Carolina on Friday, uh and here are the odds by the way to win the South region. We've been throwing those up for every region. Here they are Virginia plus one five, Tennessee plus two, seventy five, and on down the line per two the only other team in single digits here at

four to one in this region. But Virginia Gardner Webb is the matchup the one sixteen. I assume you have Virginia. I shouldn't assume it's Virginia, right, can't do that anymore. I guess you have them advancing, do you have them covering? I have them advancing. But if you saw the opener, Gardner Web was catching twenty seven points. That was too many. Even at twenty three and a half, it's still a couple too many. Gardner Web a decent team at the free throw line. They've got a lot of guys are

able to shoot from three. Now they're gonna be completely outdown on Luke glass. You've got guys like Jack Selt, Brax and Key. They're gonna be able to eat up the glasses. But Gardner Web was the team that's able to hit some shots. So I feel like twenty three and a half points couple too many. Year Adam, I'll stick stay by what I told you today. Any four minute stretch, any media time outstretch where Virginia does something poorly, I get text for people like, here we go, it's

Virginia all over again. Uh, this is they have no excuses here in this region. None I hear from. I hear from the same maybe the same people. I think gil we might be on the same text. But I think I mean, Gardner Webb, third best team even in the Big South, had to run in their tournament. But I think Virginia, much like Michigan State, I think they've got a bad taste in the amount of course it's

all they've been thinking about. And the way Tony Bennett handled it last year, I think has just really been an underrated storyline. So much class and really respect and I just thought that was awesome. And you people forget DeAndre hundred eedn't play in that game. Braxton Key Alabama transfer. They're much more athletic, much better team in terms of their offense that if they hit the eighties quite a

bit this season. So um, I mean not just Virginia for this game, but I love Virginia in this tournament. I think they just need to get through the hitters and the nervousness about the opening round game, and they'll be in great shop. I was gonna say, don't let this stay close long, because then no, Boydan the sphincter tightening as they say. I don't know if they say maybe I just said it. Winner of Virginia, Gardner Webb takes on the winner of the eight nine game in

the South Old Miss greg against Oklahoma. Oklahoma nineteen and thirteen on the year, one of these sub five hundred teams in their conference record. This is also in Colombia on Friday night. Oh Miss favored by two. Do you think Oklahoma belongs a? And do you think Ole Miss is actually an underrated live sort of UH team against the Virginia if they advance. I feel like Oklahoma is the most over a overseated team out there in this field. And I do like Gold Miss in this spot. They've

got guys in Brie and Tyree and Terence Davis. They both do a sensational job of being able to shoot from three. Now, the one thing I will say about Old Miss, they are one of the worst teams in this field in regards to Guardian three point line. I actually think they are the worst. But with that said, who from Oklahoma is gonna be able to hit threes? Brady Mannick is a little bit of an night stretch player, but I don't have faith in that bad court of

Christian James and Jamal b and Emi. I'm gonna be taking Old Miss in the spot. I take them to win and cover, win, end, cover two points spread. Again, it's not necessarily weakness if in this particular matchup that three point arc defense. Adam your thoughts here, Yeah, I'm completely in agreement with Gregg's analysis there. I mean, Oklahoma won eight and eleven in the last nine team games. This isn't a team that's just frankly very good. They

haven't been good for quite some time. Great stretch in the non conference, but um, you know they stood around a lot last year watching Trey Young and those same guys that were standing around, that's their team this year. And and meanwhile Old Miss has a terrific backcourt as as Greg points out, Tyree's a Jersey kit who can really light it up Terence Steves DeVante Schuler. So I think I'm all about Old Miss in this game. In fact,

I think they blow him out. Adam. I'm gonna let you start with this game because I know how much you're in the tank for Oregon right now. This is the five twelve game in the South Wisconsin and Oregon. It's in San Jose on Friday, Wisconsin. Of course, out of the big ten, ethan half leading the way there one and a half point favorites. And again I always say this in any close Wisconsin game, just foul happy. Really, that's the strategy. But you love Oregon. You are so

bullish on them right now, aren't you, Adam? Yeah, I think people have totally. They look they were they wrote off the pack twelve and and for good reason because of of the start of the year and obviously how bad things were in December and non conference play. That said, Daneelman always figures it out late. He had Bowl Bowl who uh was injured just fairly early in the season. Lewis King didn't play the first part of the season.

But now he made a change in his line up a guy that people do not know, Francis Akoro, who's a defensive freshman six nine guys, pretty athletic, and between him and Kenny Wooton, who had a broken jaw earlier this year. Uh, those guys. Everyone is now healthy except for bow Bowl. And defensively, you can't score on them there. They won their last eight games. Teams aren't scoring more than I think they're averaging eily seven points a game

against them. They're in that stretch. Oregon's phenomenal defensively, Peyton Pritchard, it's really stepped his game up at the point guard position. He played in the Final four. So I think Organ is a much better team than than the Wisconsin right now. End they're playing in San Jose where they're gonna have a lot of home hometown fans. So yes, I'm that is true. Those fans will travel to San Jose. Your

thoughts here. This is a really tough call here, because I do feel like Wisconsin has the best true low post player in this game. In ethan Half. He fills it up, leads a team and points, rebounds, assists, blocks, He does a tremendous job in all those aspects. And then you've got Oregon. You've got a couple of stretch players in Pault White and Louis King, who has mentioned a little bit earlier. Payton Pritchard, a guy that started

in the final four. I just think that guys like Dimetric Trice Brad Davison are gonna be able to hit enough threes in this game. I know that on the organ side, Victor Bailey Junior comes off the bench averages right around eight and ap point shoot from three. He's impressive. And you do have a little bit of trepidation with Wisconsin having to travel to the West Coast for this game. Wisconsin certainly did not get any favors there with the geography.

But I just feel like Ethan Half is gonna be able to do just enough to give Wisconsin the win and cover in this game. Winner of Wisconsin, Oregon will take on the winner of the fourth thirteen game, also in San Jose. Friday Night, Kansas State you see Irvine. By the way, it's not Friday night, it's Friday Day. Kansas State without Dean Wade here, share of the Big twelve regular season title for the Wildcats. You see Irvine. The ant Eaters were thirty and five this year greg

Big West Big West rather regular season attorney titles. Did the ant Eaters have a legit shot here? The spread is four and a half. They're ironically enough playing in their home state as well against Kansas State. It is a four seed, So certainly the people I made this practice did not do Kansas State any favors. But I like the way that Kansas State came on during the second half of the year when the top teams in the country guards to defensive efficiency. Barry Brown Junior trips

in fifteen and a half points. You've really got Davier Sneed being able to be a stretch player that's able to hit some three contier dr I'm pretty sure it's gonna be out for this game. I and kapped it as if he was not going to be playing. But you also still have over there at the point guard spot became mouse Stokes. He ever is a love and a half points. He's been doing a better job of shooting threes. I think the Kansas State is gonna be

a lockdown. And you see Irvine team that let's say that they like to play a little bit slower themselves, But I think the Kansas State just has a better athletes. I'm gonna take Kansas State to winn and cover. Adam att Nay Smith lives on Twitter. Give me an upset here, Adam outright, you see Irvine. Come on, I can't do if you told me for sure, team ways out which I think there's a good good shot A name for you though, and uh for history purposes. Comen Gentald is

the son of former Factul player the Christian Belt. You may remember Washington's all time leaving score. Um. You see, Irvine has set some guards that can really shoot. If they get hot, they're certainly going to give case stay to scare. I just think the defense that the Bruce Webber squad plays with is just gonna be too much. But look, having good guard play guards that can shoot it, he's always going to be uh, you know, and when your best player might be out, Um, that might be

the recipe for an upset. So I'm I'm considering it. I'm close, but something is just telling me that I don't think you's getting over the humps, despite the fact that they've been so hot as of late. All right, real quick here, now, let's do rapid fire. Rest of this region six, number six Villanova against the number eleven St. Mary's Gals. The Gals, of course upsetting Zaga. Zaga is not showing for that West Coast UH Conference Tourney title game.

This is in Hartford on Thursday. Villanova three straight Big Eastorney titles, regular season champs, Villanova five and a half point favorites. Greg Actually, I'm on Villanova to win and cover of this game because St. Mary's has to travel from the West coast the East coast. Villanova obviously did not end the year well, but you've still got a guy in Philip Booth I was able to win two

national championships for this team. Eric Pascal six foot seven, comboy player that shoot threes wake fits on the other side, gonna be doing a very good job of being able

to shoot threes for St. Mary's themselves. In St. Mary's a very slow team, but I think that could play to the advantage of Villanova because they also like to slow down their temple all right, And in the interest of time, the winner of that game will take on the winner of the number three four teen game between Perdue and Old Dominion the Monarch's Adam Conference USA regular season and Tourney Chaps, also in Hartford on Thursday. The

boiler Maker's thirteen point favorites. Yeah, I mean, here's the issue. Old Dominion cannot score. So meanwhile, you compare that to a guy in Carson Edwards, who has been someone in consistent second half of the year but explosive. He's an NBA player, Plus the guys who concuted Perdue Produce should run away with this one. Old Dominion loves a rock fight and Bryant's this son, ye is there is their star. In fact, Brian's an assistant coach. But uh, this team

just is in an offensive slump right now. Everyone's shooting poorly from the team and they already learned it on offense. I don't know where points are coming from. Promote to use. I'm all overdue, Brian Stiff former n i T champion Adam Let's never forget are you taking the points with Old Dominion. I'm taking Old Dominion to win this game out right. That was not the one to sever three and shoots over for three. Does your Dickens seven footer comes off the bed for Old Dominion? Where are you

gonna get out of Matt Harmes? He has been so wildly and cond this and and then Carson Edwards takes the most shot at jemps of any player out there in this entire tournament. We've seen him go like seven or thirty one from the floor at what Old Dominion does top ten team in regards to defensive efficiency. If they turn it into Carson Edwards having the thirty shots, it plays right into their hands. Greg Peterson calls his shot fourteen over three Monarchs over the boiler Makers, ODU

over per Due out in the South final. Two games in the South, number seven Cincinnati, the A. C. Turney title champs against Iowa out of the Big Ten. Honestly, I watched Iowa up this year. I'm like, how are the how are they in this tournament? Three and a half I'm sorry, three and a half point favorites? Uh, in favor of the Bearcats here in this one. Your thoughts here on this game. We're on Cincinnati, you're on Cumberland has been averaging rate right around eighteen and a

half points. Looked terrific against Houston a couple of days ago. Shoot three along with Justin Jennifer Trade Scott, a very nice combo player that's able to shoot some threes. Give this team some blocks. In Iowa, they have good three point shooters, but other than Tyler Cook, they're not doing a good job downma. All right, Adam Cincinnati as well, Yeah, I'm all over Cincinnati, same reasons you give. In terms of the the Iowa team, I don't know if there's

anything that I really love that they do well. They're they're fishing on offense. But but other than that, mccronin's team plays tough defensively. Cumberland's tough to stop, and they have senior point guards, including Kane Broom, who was top ten in the country and scoring when he played at Sacred Heart. He transferred has become more of a setup guy for this team. I I really like Cincinnati in this game, all right, win are of that seven ten between Cincinnati and I will take on the winner of

the two fifteen between Tennessee and Colgate. Colgate actually the top rated of the two seats, fifth overall, not in Michigan state in this bracket from the committee, Colgate the Patriot League Turney title champs. They want to eleven straight half the Raiders. This is in Columbus on Friday. Tennessee's favored by seven seed and a half. Tennessee's advancing. I assume you're taking points with Coga. You can't even take the points here. I'm taking the points. You got. His

revenue skis six ft ten player. He's able to shoot well from three for Colgate along with hy Raymond. These are two guys are six ft eight or taller, shoot over up for three. Jordan Burns very good point guard, assistant turnover ratio two For Tennessee. We all know that you've got Grant Williams, Jordan Bone, all those guys are very efficient. And I think that this could turn into an up tempo game, but I think that Colgate has an up three point shooting to be able to hang

in there. All right, Tennessee coming off that blowout loss to Auburn in the SEC championship game, and the attorney Adam, you take the points here with Colgate or nothing for you here, And I I Tennessee is I think shoots tough. That's I do. Like evanouscas Uh he is. He's a fun player to watch. People are gonna really enjoy seeing

him play. Matt lingle good coach. They challenge themselves in a non conference, but I mean up front, if you don't have someone that can get Grant Williams out on the low post and forget it, it's gonna be a long, long day for you. All right, South Winner will take on the Midwest winner will get to that final region. Next the numbers game, racketology, racket bolusa, whatever you wanna call it. Right here as now, back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our

Visa in Studios in Laws, Vegas. It's back on the Numbers game, Sports betting analytics, live actionable sports betting information. Again. We'll throw this in podcast for him if you miss part of this seth of Walder with his Giant Killers

analytics on March Madness as well. In there as well, I should say Visas All Access subscription package, we should mention where you can test your handicapping abilities against other subscribers in the third annual Visa Beat the Spread Challenge, where you pick all of D one men's basketball tournament games against the spread, round by round, beat at your fellow point Spread. Weekly subscribers win ten thousand dollars, two nights at the South Point Hotel Casino, and a guest

spot with Brett Musburger My guys in the desert. Once again, let me just say this again, he may read a man scaping read just while you're on set. No promises, but it could happen. Visa dot Com Slash Challenge for all the details. Crash Cash prizes of two or fifty dollars will be awarded to the top point getter in rounds one, two, and three, So not just the grand prize, Greg, but also round by round prizes. We like that as well.

One year subscription I should mention two d forty dollars includes our college basketball tournament betting guide that will help your handicap up the tournament. Adam Stanko is here, Greg Peterson is here. We're gonna try to get through the

Midwest in uh very efficient fashion. Here. Let us begin with the one sixteen game Carolina tar Heels, their seventeen number one seed of all time, the third overall seed in the tournament itself, by the way, plus one sixty to win the Midwest region here per the super book at the Westgate. Kentucky's at plus two seventy five, the

second short shot here in the region. But UNC takes on IONA the m A A C tourney titled the Gals uh M A A C Tourney Title Champs, I should say the Gals Columbus Friday Night between UNC and IONA one sixteen, Carolina by twenty four. Greg, Yeah, this is not gonna be a gayl for us. When here for the Iona Gayles they come in winning ten straight games. But with that said, North Carolina, I think it's gonna be able to roll on this one. I would take the points here with Iona, there's a lot of points.

But North Carolina has everything working. Cameron John institutes over three and this team such a good team in regards the rebound rate. See what you did there with a Gale Force wins Gray, See what you did there, um Adam anything to add here? Kobe White his first round pick in the NBA draft. He's turning himself into a lottery pick before it's all said and done. I love

North Carolina in this game. That said, it wouldn't be great to see if close and d J Crawford six six junior average of eighteen a game, if he turned into this year's Harold Arsono and really gave him a run, I'd be a lot of fun. Kobe White with the strange dribble to the side with five seconds left that last possession against un C and the a c C semis a guy who makes great decisions. That was an

odd one there on that final possession very much. So winner of that game will take on the winner of the eight nine game between Utass State the Midwest excuse me, the Mountain West Conference Attorney Title Attorney Champions against you dub Out of the Pack twelve regular season Pack twelve champs was Washington. No favors. In round two, whoever advances here obviously had to take on Carolina this in Columbia on Friday six fifty pm Eastern three fifty pm Acific

tip off for this one. Utah stayed by three. This is a tough one because Utah State is one of the top five teams in the country with rebound rate. Washington not necessarily great on the defensive glass, but what Washington has is a leader in steals in the country Matisibel. He averages over three point four per game. No other

player in the country averages three or more. And I think that that's gonna allow Washington to win, especially with Jayleen Nowell, guy that pours in sixteen points per game and shoots over from three. Don't wash it in here. Yeah, it's a little against the grain. Everybody's down on Washington,

Adam your thoughts. They're down in Washington because Pecto teams figured out this zone, but Mike Hopkins, I mean, think about what Syracuse does but their zone defense and how scary they are when they hit the tournament regardless of where they're seated. Washington sort of falls into the same camp the teams that saw him late in the year at a better shot against them. Title. Doesn't just block more than threak shouts the game is great points out.

I mean, doesn't steal to win the three balls game, but he also blocks two shots the game best defense player in the country by far, and he reads havoc on the top of that zone. If you haven't seen it, it's a nightmare. Sam Merrill is a good player. Utah State's great offensive team. So it's gonna be an awesome battle. Uh, Washington needs to find points from someone. But I do like Washington in this game. In a tight one, al right, so winner of Well, now we'll go to the next bracket.

Here it's Auburn in New Mexico State. It's a five twelve game here in the Midwest. Auburn just crushed in the SEC Attorney. They're the title winners, beating Tennessee big time in the title game against the New Mexico State Aggies. They are the whack regular season and Turney Champs. Aggies were thirty and four this year, Greg Tiger six and a half point favorites, and the Eggs are the number one team in regards the rebound right in the country.

And get this, they go thirteen players deep. Thirteen I've never seen a rotation that deep. A J. Harris, a transfer from Ohio State, is on a just Mascal drive at the point guard spot from New Mexico State. Auburn is a team that really likes to generate seals and they get points from the three point arc. But New Mexico a pretty good defensive team themselves, and without they go. I think that Auburn is gonna be the team that's

tired in this game. I'm gonna go with the New Mexico State Eggies to win outright and cover to win hours. So on the heels of a thirteen four outright cover on old Dominion, you go twelve five here with New Mexic that was actually a fourteen fourteen three. Pardon me, I don't want to mark coming. Don't worry, Okay, we do adam real quick on that one. I'm all over Auburn. I think New Mexico State's greatest strength, as as Greig

points out, is that backcourt. But I don't know that you're going to find a better backcourt in this tournament than Auburn's. Love Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, um o'keke is A is a talented player at the wing position, So I definitely best defensive player Bruce Pearls ever coached. I'm all over Auburn in this. You guys should totally fight on that one, all right. I have a feeling this is the one that Greg was was talking about right here, because he did have a fourteen over three and the

twelve over five. I am gonna guess that he's got a thirteen over four here. It's Kansas criminally overseated here. Thirty consecutive appearances in the Big Dance, the most all time for the Jayhawks. But they do take on number thirteen Northeastern Kansas seven point favorites here, Northeastern, the Huskies Colonial Attorney Champs. This is in Salt Lake on Thursday. You're taking Northeastern. ARGA, yes, sir, we're taking Northeastern outright. They've got so many guys there. But go bombs away

from three. Donald Gresham great player out there in the back court. I like what he's able to do. This team doesn't necessarily have great rebounding, but Alex Green is like six ft ten two and fifty pounds. He can do a good job down low. And Diedrich Lawson is having to do everything for Kansas right now, and I believe he's actually their top three point shooter. You're just getting nothing out of that Kansas backcourt. So correct me if I'm wrong your brackets. Then have a new Mexico

State Northeastern twelve thirteen game in round two. Yes, we do, which means we've got double digit seed in the sweet six scene. Yeah, so if you and by the way, if you're in an upset rewarded pool, that would be huge for you to get a twelve and a thirteen in there. Again, you get the extra points and an upset rewarded pool. Always know the rules of your pool for goodness sake, you know if people play pools. Just saying, Adam,

Kansas North Eastern, I'm not coming close to getting there. Uh. I think Vassa Pasica is a really good player out of Serbia. Six five kid at Northeastern. They do have some shooters, but this team UH mediocre Defensively, they play at a slow pace. I know they've been hot in their last seventeen. They've lost two games, and both of them more close. One was in overtime. That's diedrich Lass and I don't know who on on Northeastern is gonna have a shout of stopping the kid. Plus Stotson's a

draft pick as well, Quentin Grimes. I just think there's just too much talent, regardless of the fact that it took. I mean, Kansas really really struggled, but they struggle with injuries. I think they figured some of that out. Mitch Lightfoot has been a difference maker form. So I think that Kansas wins this game, and I don't. I don't even think it's that close. Even though I don't love Kansas,

I love them against Northeastern. Alright, disagreement here In the last couple of Kansas gets a four seed greg and they get absolutely murdered by Iowa State in the conference finals. They're the big twelve I always take gets a sixth seed here the Cyclones and eleven. This year they take on Ohio State, another one of these big ten teams. That is such a myth. The eleven seed buck Eyes Iowa stayed by five and a half and all I always say it looks better with cale what'son back in

the lineup. But with that said, you've got a pair of point guards in Nicholas bab And and Hella Burton that do a great job. Right was say both these guys haven't assisted turn over vertio grade then two Halli Burton is able to generate nearly two steals for game. He shoot from three like what he's able to do. Mariel Shayak, it's cooled down a little bit towards the end of the year, but he's a good three point shooter.

And then with the Ohio State, what where's the three point shooting gonna come from outside of C. J. Jackson. I just don't see it. Iowa State laying the points in advancing This isn't tell us on Friday, Adam, Yeah, I'm all about Iowa State right now. I mean they're they're one of the more talented teams in this whole field. Of the Shayaks, a Virginia transfer kid out of Ontario and Wig Wigginson who moved to the bench. Uh, fantastic kid. He's gonna be playing in the pros. Tail and Horton Tucker.

I mean Iowa State is loaded in in Ohio State, I mean great, points it out, I mean returning Caleb Western's great. But who else? Who else do you have on Ohio State? There's really nothing to be that excited about. So yeah, I'm all about Iowa stating this game. They've they've figured things out and when they're when they're right,

they're really good. Winner of that game takes on the three fourteen winner Houston, a c regular season champs, ninth overall seed in this tournament thirty one and three on the year. They take on number fourteen Georgia State, the Panthers Sunbelt regular season attorney champs. This is also in TELS on Friday. Houston favored by twelve. You some one of the best teams that being able to shut down the three so far this year. They've got a bunch

of guys with some versatility. They don't necessarily have ideal size though. On Georgia State's biggest kryptunited is that they don't do a good job on the glass. All but one of Georgia's State's rotation players shoot at least forty percent from three. That one guy, DeMarcus DeMarcus Simmons, that pours an eight teen points per game. You know what, we're gonna take the points where Georgia State, and I think Georgia State lights Houston up like a Christmas tree

for three. We're going to Georgia State. Oh well, right, stop it really Georgia State Panthers, baby, who let you in here? Really? Are you taking Georgia State out right in this game? I tell you, I will give you so much credit if this happens, because I think Houston's boys were for a run or think where the break people's arts. Jane Williams or point guard, he shoots nearly from three. They just have so many deadly shooters. Aston has not seen a team like this all year. Adam,

please back me up. You know what, I like hoops Feederson a lot in this game. I'm in agreement with him. I mean, look, there's some players on Georgia State that are transfers. Devan Mitchell's in Alabama transfer. You've got David Wilson, a pit transfer. They are not going to be scared to play. And by the way, you mentioned to Mark Simmons. I mean this is a kid that he's a future NBA player. I think, I mean get dunks with both hands. Sixth Street Jr. Really gets after. He's been struggling from

the field lately. But they have some other guys that could play, I mean the league. Ben Levy hit a game winning three against Alabama. He shot from three at the very least. Georgia State is going to challenge Houston, and I think Houston could crack and we could see Georgia State winning this games. So yeah, I might as well say it to Georgia State over Houston. Let's both go. Yeah, I will say this, Houston did so show a little, uh, little cracks in the armor, if you will this uh

this past weekend. They're not hitting the threes things the free throw line either. Oh my goodness, well that was their thing. That's how they lost the tournament last year too against Michigan. Couldn't hit free throws down the stretch. Um, still give me Houston for God's sakes. Alright, last to we'll do them together in an interest of time. Wafford Seaton Hall, Congratulations Terriers of Wafford Southern Conference champs. Shooting

over from three, Fletcher McGhee leading the way. But you get to play Seaton Hall, who's who's very hot right now going in the tournament, and then if you win, you get to blake Kentucky. So no favors here in the seven ten game for Wafford, who are three point favorites, and then Kentucky Abilene Christian. They'll play the winner of that greg I've offered in the spot They've got four guys that shoot over from three, including one of the best spot up shooters out there in this tournament, and

Fletcher McGhee, Seaton Hall. Other than Miles Kale and Miles Powell, nobody on this team shoots over thirty percent from three. That's a big wall. And then Kentucky Apble and Christian. Kentucky is gonna win this game. But Able and Christian a team now sub five indeed to play seven years ago now in the NT double A tournament. I actually think that they can cover the spread because they do

a good job of being able force turnovers. Wildcats, Sapling, Attorney Champs, Wafford, Seaton Hall and Kentucky Abilee and Christian close it out. Adam Well, I really like Watford as a team, It's gonna be fun to see what Offord seton Hall because of not just lect from age of Miles Powell is a confident player. So seeing two guys that shoot from deep love to to jack and and then both guys are extremely confident, It's gonna be fun to see that matchup between the game Powell. But I

like Watford. They're playing at high level right now, um and they really don't turn the ball over much, So I think because of that, I got the Watford and then Kentucky all over. Avlene Christian of Kentucky has the most future NBA players of any team in in this uh in this tournament, and it's really not even close. They have a ton of NBA talent and just their issue is which lineup works best for of them. I think they struggled to figure that out all right, both

of those games in Jacksonville. On Thursday, we will get Greg at Adams Final four Picks. Want to ask him about this prop It is a numbers game right here at Visa Down back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. Remember if you're in town for the week. Tomorrow Brent Musburger our own here at Visa and he'll

be hosting Betting and Buds with Brent. That's tomorrow from five thirty to six thirty pm at the South Point Hotel Casino with Chrissy Andrews, Vinny Moliulo, Nascars, Brendon Gone and Mike Palm from the d in Las Vegas, Visas team of experts gonna break down the team's lines of the bracket. They'll take questions, take the show for broadcast on Visa. Should be a whole lot of fun and it is free, don't cost you nothing. There'll be one

dollar Budweiser brands available. I should mention that from five to eight pm in the South Points Grand View Lounge. It's right by the Racing Book. Hope you'll join us Brent Musburger Betting in Buds with Brent tomorrow evening here at the south Point. Let me just stay for the record in that region in the Midwest, Greg has advancing from the first round. Man in New Mexico State the twelve seed, Northeastern the thirteen seed, and Georgia State the

fourteen seed. And you have Georgia State going to the sweet sixteen, which means you have to yes, I do. I have them advancing over Iowa stating my person over Reckon Wow, oh man, good stuff from you out of that last one. All right, Before we get to your final four picks, I bet a prop at MGM total uh some of seeds to make the final four. They set it at eleven and a half. I went under, which means, you know, if it's a one, one, three, three,

let's just say I'm eight. I win the bed. The only way I get torpedo is if a one of the higher seeds gets in there. Seven seeds six years in a row, a seven seed or higher has gotten into the final four. Tell me the team that is. If I'm going to lose that bed at eleven and a half, what's the team that's going to torpedo my bed? Maybe Florida. They're the one of the cheek teams I like because they're really doing a good job and being

able to hit threes. Both that said, I can see that street coming doing and I have all ones and twos in my personal final four. I do to see. I'm with you, not quite the chaos you have in the first two rounds, but chaos and then it normalizes exactly come the second weekend, I think in a big way. All right, Greg, your final for sir. We've got Virginia and they're in the final four, gonna be taking on Kentucky. And then on the other half you've got Gonzaga versus

Michigan State. Wow. So one to one two for you, exactly finals, and then you've got Virginia versus Gonzaga and Virginia cutting down the net. Virginia Cavillys wah. Who'd you hear that? Your national champions? According to Greg Hoops Peterson, let all the haters hate, it's over. According to Greg Adam, final four and give you your chance. I've got Duke Gonzaga, Virginia and Kentucky one one two. Who you got when you have the championship game, I've got Gonzaga over Virginia.

He says it with a sigh. He's so upset. And that is that is difficult. And the other teams, by the way, if I was to say a Texas Tech, I think could could possibly make a Final four running Auburn is another team that that also would would scare me so I'm not as confident on Gonzaga and Auburn as I am with with Virginia and Duke to reach the Mono four. Okay, I got a one one one in three. Texas Tech is my three getting into the final four. But I got Duke beating Carolina in the championship.

Greg Peterson at g UNIT underscore anyone, yes, sir? All right? And at Nay Smith Lives, Adam Stanko. Thank you both very much, two very generous hours, Gil, Alexander, Jeff, Pauls, everybody. Thank you.