Beating The Book: Roxy Roxborough and Jason Weingarten on MLB Season Win Totals

there's going to be some applicable value to this. But in case the season is truncated, maybe there's an equivalent win percentage that could inform some of our wagers. We shall see. Nonetheless, always interesting, always informative, always insightful from these two on the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy with Jill Alexander that Chicago bullstat that we gave out one and twenty one against win Team's courtesy of want to

give him credit. Casey Johnson, Bulls Insider f NBC Chicago twenty nine years of the Tribune, You know him Bill twenty nine years of the Tribune and Casey Johnson. Thank you for that. Let's bring him in, ladies and gentlemen, from somewhere under a cloud of smoke in southern California. It's his time a year. Also writes for Points Spread Weekly, talking Major League Baseball. It's Jason Weingar and good morning, Jason, Good morning Gil. How's it going? Just going well? Man,

great to hear you. Let me just ask you this off the top. What was your favorite part and my favorite I'll put that in quotes. What was your favorite part of Rob Rob Manfred's uh interview yesterday with Karl Ravitt regarding the Astros scandal. You know, I didn't actually watch it. I just saw the clip in the news, So yeah, it wasn't anything new. Really, It's just kind of disappointing that that nothing's really gonna happen and he

wants to fall to just move on. He looked first of all, he looked awful, and I couldn't believe of a couple of a couple of responses, you know, hey, are you gonna are you gonna strip them of the title? And I'm not a strip of title, strip of title kind of guy, vacate title kind of guy. But I believe there was ever a title to be vacated. It's that one in and Rob Manfred was like, no, I don't believe in that kind of all right, well, what

about the players being punished? I don't know MLB, you know the players those Asians though, it was just sort of this horrific They're just like, oh god, this is getting worse. As if you didn't think the the Jim Crane interview could be any worse, Rob Manfred doubling down. Anyway, Um,

let's talk unders, and let's start there. I'm guessing that perhaps of all of these, because a couple of these are are not gonna be bettable yet at the number that you got them at, did you bet the Houston Astros under, because that would be one of them, I'm guessing that would not be there. I did under ninety six and a half, ninety four and a half, so it's you got it at ninety six and a half, but it is at ninety four and a half now,

so that's one. So that's two games off, So that's it's one that's not quite Would you still bet it at ninety four and a half, Yeah, I bet it. I also bet it at ninety four and a half. You okay, give us your now beyond beyond the scandal, beyond the the sign stealing. What is your reasoning, what is your baseball reasoning? They lost Garrett Cole, they they hired Dusty Dusty Baker to manage the team. Uh, you know, I I totally understand why you would still want to

play the over It's it's a really good lineup. Um, there's nothing wrong with the lineup. I'm just gonna kind of go out on a little bit of a narrative limb and say that they're gonna have a tough season. They're gonna have a lot of distractions, you know. And I don't have anything against Dusty Baker. I just don't think he's gonna lead them to ninety wins. I just don't. Here's what I love about that, because you, you and I are very much based on numbers, and we adhere

to them pretty strongly. But I do agree with what you said. I actually think that the narrative matters here, and I think there is a sense of and I'm not talking about oh, they're gonna get thrown at and the media is gonna be on Maybe that's part of it too, But I just don't know, Jason, how good they were, you know what I mean. Like, so all

of this cast doubt on everything. For me, I'm not going to bet a team over that number when I'm not convinced there is good based on everything we've learned as our eyes told us they were back in the day, because we don't know anything anymore about this team. I do also think the division has gotten better. So the Dusty Baker thing is interesting though, because I always say this about Usty Weather's in San Francisco, d C, Chicago,

wherever he's been Cincinnati. Not only not the best in game decision maker, but he also seems to get unlucky a lot too when he does when he does make good decisions. Um, I'm with you, And you also point out, what if this team starts slow? Is he the guy to get them out of that? I don't think so. I'm not sure. I mean, I feel and I don't like to to talk a lot of trash on Dusty because he's he's actually a good manager and he's a good guy. But they didn't hire him to win games.

They they hired him to to stand at the podium. You know this week Will the team was speaking and basically be a credibility shield. That was the best way I heard it described in an article is that he was hired to shield them from criticism and make them more credible that they're you know, they're changing the organization, which I don't really believe a credibility shield. That's interesting. Yeah,

all right, give me a couple other unders. Rockies under seventy four and a half, Pirates under seventy one and a half, uh, Philly's under eighties five and a half, and the Braves under ninety and a half. All right, so let's let's drill down on some of those. Let's start with the Rockies, because I've had a a pretty good relationship over the last three years bidding Rockies. Was

right about them on the over one year. I think I was wrong a couple of years ago, and then I was right again on the under easily last year. What is your thought on the Rockies under it's bad team? And I bet at early sort of anticipating that Nolan Ronado might get traded. He hasn't yet, but but I still think he's he's probably closer to the end of his Colorado careers and you know, it's probably time for him to move to a team that came put together

a winner. So yeah, I think you lose Eronado. That's gonna drop a couple of games. And I just I don't like the team. I don't like there, you know, I don't like them in comparison to everybody else in the division. And I don't like the stadium. Other than other than that, I can't think of anything I don't I don't like about them, and I don't like their stadium.

It's just so tough that that is one of those teams that perennially if you take an over on the Rockies, it's just such a frustrating experience to live through that bet. We don't often talk about that, right Jason, like the experience of actually dealing with that bet for the course of a season. But Rockies overs are particularly frustrating just because that ballpark. Do as I said, many times, do you last year you may have said it as well, I don't know what they're doing in there, but it

certainly isn't baseball in that stadium. Something else. Yeah, Um, all right, let's talk about did you did you mention the Marlins on that list? As well. Marlins, Oh, Marlin's was it over? We'll talk about them tomorrow. I'm sorry, Phillies and Braves, and at least because those are related, So Phillies and Braves. You like the under on both the Phillies and the Braves. What numbers did you get them? An? We'll flash those up on the screen at Visa dot

Com and the Visa app. But talk to me about those two teams in the n L least Braves ninety and a half, Phillies five and a half. It's it's not so much an indictment on either team not being really good as much as the their division being competitive. And I just don't see either one of those teams really running away and and you know, especially don't see

the Braves winning over ninety games this year. And I like the Brave, So I'm I'm happy to take the hunders on those numbers and pair it with a with a very low over on the Marlins. Let you talk about tomorrow. We'll talk about them tomorrow. They were there. They are on the screen right here at Visa dot Com. These are all courtesy of the South Point Hotel Casino, Atlanta.

Currently at ninety one was Philly currently at right there, Jeff six currently in those numbers, those are both both good numbers, so both genders both better than the ones you got them at correct. Yeah, okay, um, I could have stopped by south Point. You should have stopped by this point, all right, um? And then you said also for the others, you you have the Pirates under as well. Yeah,

I think they're probably the worst team in baseball. Worse than the Giants, worse than the Orioles, worse than the Tigers. I don't think the Yeah. Actually I have overs on two of those three teams you mentioned. Pittsburgh's at seventy currently, So why why the worst in your opinion? Just comprehensive horrific baseball team. The same reason I say for most

teams is the division issue. They have four other teams in their division that are all much better other than them, so they don't really get any time, offer any any easy games. They're constantly gonna be getting the asses kicked. Ah. I don't like the the rebuilding sort of attitude they have, and they're they're they're admitting and you know, look, we're we hired a new GM, we're rebuilding, and you know they traded Starlin Marte. They're they're not really doing a

ton to add to the team. It's it's they exist. It's nice, but they're not spending money. They're you know, they're not going to make any moves at the trade deadline to be competitive. Just what's there to like? On the over with the Pirates, I I can't find find an upside. I just sit downside, all right? So unders therefore unders on the Astros, under on the Pirates, under on the Braves, under on the Phillies, under on the Rockies. Jason's got one more under. It's in the NL Central.

We'll get to that momentarily, and Jason, I might ask you a question about political markets. Will do that? Coming back Jason Wygarden at spread A PDA hang out one second, coming back on a numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Back on the numbers game. Indeed, it is Gill Alexander right here Visa the Sports Betting Network series XM, channel two oh four. Jason wine Garten is with us at

spread a pedia. All right, as far as your final under in baseball and again let's review Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, and you say they're the worst team in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates. One last under, sir, and it's from the NL Central and Central the St. Louis Cardinals under eight and a half eight seven. Now, you still obviously don't like it as much at eighty seven,

But would you still bet it at eighty seven? Close? Again, A lot of these will go over and tomorrow I pair a lot of overs with an under, so I would probably still better if you could find a competitive number on the other side that I'm looking for. Um Okay, I guess I can kind of kind of get into it real quick and just say my my division bet for the NL Central is my one sort of upset change different team this year, it's the Cincinnati Reds to win the division. So I think I think the Cardinals

take a step back. I think the Cubs take a step back. I think I think a lot of a lot of teams will have games to pick up playing the Pirates so often. So well, you again, for those of who missed the nuances of that, Jason has sort of hinted in both cases, Phillies and Braves. Under is in some way correlated with the Maralins over, which we'll talk about tomorrow, as is the unders in the NL Central Pirates and Cardinals with the over on the red So you do you have a division bet on them?

I don't. I don't have a division bet on the Reds. I took I took their winds all over because I could still see situations where they're second in division and a wild card team. You know, So I'm I'm not in love with a lot of the early numbers. I

looked at pen and futures divisions. I really believe you're probably gonna get better numbers on a lot of this stuff in season, because it's not like anybody's going to run away with a division or be a prohibitive pennant favorite other than the Dodges of the Yankees after the

first month. So you know, why invest in in February or March or even April when I could put that money to work in Mayorge own totally, And as we've I've said this on this show so many times, pre flop futures betting markets some of the worst value you will find in anything season win totals still some of the greatest. Because you have a hundred sixty two games, you can overcome negative variants, you know, even if you

don't have credit somewhere. You know, if you're if you have to live through that for six month, I get if there's an opportunity to cause but at least it's a very cerebral bet. At least you're getting, um, you know, it's it's a very well thought out thing. Futures, you're just not getting the bang for your buck, even with something like the Reds. It is not sexy enough at this point. It's hard not to like that rotation though,

with Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo. By the way, Trevor Bauer shout out to Trevor Bauer for being among the most vocal against the Astros. Love hearing from Trevor Bauer. Jason will do this tomorrow. We'll we'll come back with the overs tomorrow. Okay, same time, same time. I'll be here, my man. Thank you so much. Jason Weingarten, Professional Sports Better Rights for Points Brand Weekly on Baseball and beyond.

We look forward to all the thoughts that he has about baseball season win totals in written for him as well. He'll be back on the show tomorrow to talk about overs. My baseball season win totals manifesto coming up at some point too. Whenever I get off my lazy button, start to write three and oh last year, So three and oh. I was three and old last year on the show. Jason, I think was about two and oh or three and o with his season win totals. Maybe I'm shure changing

and I can't remember how many he had. And Roxy was about eight and one and then had the Nationals mid season win it all had Tampa Bay. I think to get into the playoffs. Roxy had a dream season. Roxy will be on the show here within a couple of weeks. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander. Back on the Numbers game, jeff Parlay putting up the number sign on me. Oh, I see what you're saying now, little signals from behind the glass from Parlay. Jason Weingar

was on with us yesterday. He gave us his favorite Major League Baseball season win total unders. Help me out here, Jeffrey. These were the I think he gave out six. Uh one was the Houston Astros. That's where we started. Uh. Then we had the Braves and the Phillies from the n L East. We also had the Cardinals and the Pirates from the yed L Central who He described the Pirates as the worst team in Major League Baseball, and I believe it was under on the Rockies as well.

One of his reasons was, I hate everything about them, including their stage. Muh So those are the six h unders in Major League Baseball, the Astros and then that quintetive teams from the National League. Today we talked about his favorite Major League Baseball season win total overs from somewhere under a cloud of smoking southern California. So, Buddy, Jason Weingar, and good morning Jason, Good morning Gil. How's it going. All right, let's talk about overs. You have

a handful of these. You mentioned a couple yesterday, and Uh, usually when we use the word correlated, we're talking about parlays and betting. But I guess there is some correlation here because you have the unders with the Braves and the Phillies. It is somewhat correlated. As we mentioned yesterday that you have the over on the Marlins. What number did you get the Miami Marlins at sixty three and a half currently here at the South Point Hotel Casino.

That's what I got, sixty three and a half. I wouldn't I wouldn't chase that number very much higher for for action. So sixty and a half good number what you're thinking there. I mean, obviously it's not a very high bar, too clear, That's that's pretty much exactly. It's it's a very low bar. And you know, a moderately competent team should be able to get sixty five wins. So they have a nice pitching staff. I don't hate any of their starting pitchers really, all right, doesn't hate

any of the starting pitchers. The other one that had a a loose correlation with was the Cincinnati Reds. You were, we were under on the Cardinals. You run around the Pirates. We talked about the Reds. The Reds, in many ways among baseball circles, are sort of the flavor of the month right there. There's a lot to like with the Reds. We talked about their starting staff yesterday, uh Sonny Gray and uh and Trevor Bauer and Louis Castillo obviously headlining

that group. You do not have a pick on them to win the division. We talked about the fact that we don't love the bank for your buck on future's odds there, but you do have them over. Their number at the south point right now is eighty four. Where do you have them? I got eighty three and a half, So eighty eighty four and still be playable. I've seen up to eighty five and a half. Wasn't dying to play all the way up to eighty five and a half. But I like them. I think they made some good

moves this offseason. They got Nick Castilianos, they signed the guy from Japan, Akayama. Uh, there's just a lot to like, a lot of a lot of positives, a lot of positive momentum for them. And what's it called we talked. I mentioned to you yesterday the nl Central odds. They're like two and a half to one to win the NFL Central. Just you know, they've They've made a nice, nice improvement year over year and I'm I'm interested to watch them and you know, see how they play all

right now? Now? If I know Jason wine Garden and I do. By the way, you can follow Jason at spread Apia on Twitter. Always a fascinating Twitter follow you are all about Listen, you're in southern California. We watched the Dodgers very closely. Are we over on the do Dgers again? This year? I did. I did bet over on the Dodgers. But let me practace this by saying, UM, a lot of what I bet and and the ways I've got. If I'm sitting in front of the computer

and news breaks, I can pick off numbers. So when the initial Mookie Betts trade went through, and remember it took a week or so to UH to actually finalize, But but when it when it went through and and all the reporters broke the news, I bet over ninety eight and a half wins and you know, minus one thirty or something because I knew. I knew that number wasn't gonna last. And unfortunately I didn't also bet the Red Sox under at the same time. I probably should have.

But yes, I did bet the Dodgers over. I do expect them to walk easily walk into a hundred winds. I wouldn't I wouldn't rush to bet over a hundred two wins, But honestly, I don't see how they don't hit the over on any of these members with with the team they have and the ammunition they have to continue to add more players this year. I mean, it's it's not out of the question that they still they still get not Fernando Francisco lind Or if if the Indian to move them, so you imagine, God, I could,

I think. And that's the thing is that I think the Dodgers sort of are gonna be playing this season with with sort of a little anger. And it might it might not translate to hit by pitches or anger on the field, but I could see the front office being more aggressive this year and saying, you want to you want to see what we're gonna do when we're angry, Well, let's add lind Or to this lineup and and see how you beat us. Now it's at one o one now at the south point one a one and a

half over the west coast. You would probably stay off that at this point. If if you were really looking for action, I tell you, Dodgers over a pass, I wouldn't. I wouldn't really try to to you know, get the dodge is on an under there, but you know it's just so high when you're when you're taking it over a hundred. That's amazing total on any team. Just what are you what are you betting that nothing's gonna go wrong, everything was gonna be great that you know, there's better

best than that. That's that's what I'm saying. Well, for those who have who have followed you followed me for

many years. I mean, one of the things I always say about baseball season win totals is there is a I mean, this is a case for everything, but with baseball season win totals in a hundred and sixty two games, again where you can overcome negative variants, it also means more when you say this is the this is the bet where there really is a spectrum of possibilities things go completely your way during a season, you know, or the other way that you get a complete you know,

rash of injuries or whatever it is, or things just don't work out in the parts that are you know, or hit or miss, and of course there's a spectrum in between that, and so yeah, that's exactly right. It's we've gotten to the point now with the Dodgers and the Yankees specifically where the number is so high. The Yankees are also above to check it down. Man now down Now it's the Beating the Book Podcast, still Alegnon

and Thomas, the whole bunch of podcasts. This is one of them that is from a little earlier, a few weeks back. It's season win totals in Major League Baseball from both Roxy Roxborrow, the legendary Roxy Roxborrow and Jason Weingarten, who have been so good on season win tolls for so many years on the show Roxy with just a remarkable year last year. This is obviously a question Marcus, to whether or not there's going to be some applicable

value to this. But in case the season is truncated, maybe there's an equivalent win percentage that could inform some of our wagers. We shall see. Nonetheless, always interesting, always informative, always insightful from these two on the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy with Jill Alexander that Chicago bullstat that we gave out one twenty one against winning teams courtesy of want to give him credit, Casey Johnson, bulls Insider f NBC Chicago,

twenty nine years of the Tribune. You know him Bill, twenty nine years of the Tribune. Casey Johnson, thank you for that. Let's bring him in, Ladies and gentlemen, from somewhere under a cloud of smoke in southern California. It's his time a year. Also writes for Point Spread Weekly, talking Major League Baseball. It's Jason Weingarten. Good morning, Jason, Good morning cal how's it going? Just going well? Man?

Great to hear you. Let me just ask you this off the top, what was your favorite part and my favorite I'll put that in quotes. What was your favorite part of Rob Rob Manfred's uh interview yesterday with Karl Ravit regarding the Astros scandal. You know, I didn't actually watch it. I just saw the clip in the news, So yeah, it wasn't anything new. Really, It's just kind of disappointing that that nothing's really gonna happen, and he

wants to fall to just move on. He looked, first of all, he looked awful, and I couldn't believe a couple of a couple of responses, you know, hey, are you gonna are you gonna strip them of the title? And I'm not a strip of title, strip of title kind of guy, vacate title kind of guy, But I believe there was ever a title to be vacated. It's that one in and Rob Manfred was like, no, no, I don't believe in that kind of all right, well,

what about the players being punished? I don't know MLB, you know the players those Asians though, it was just sort of this horrific. They're just like, oh god, this is getting worse. As if you didn't think the the Jim Crane interview could be any worse, Rob Manfred doubling down. Anyway, Um,

let's talk unders, and let's start there. I'm guessing that perhaps of all of these, because a couple of these are are not gonna be bettable yet at the number that you got them at, did you bet the Houston Astros under, because that would be one of them, I'm guessing that would not be there. I did under ninety six and a half, ninety four and a half, so it's you got it at ninety six and a half, but it is at ninety four and a half now,

so that's one. So that's two games off. So that's that's one that's not quite Would you still bet it at ninety four and a half, Yeah, I bet it. I also bet it at ninety four and a half. Did Okay, give us your now beyond beyond the scandal, beyond the signs stealing. What is your reasoning, what is your baseball reasoning? They lost Garrett Cole, they they hired Dusty Dusty Baker to manage the team. Uh, you know, I I totally understand why you would still want to

play the over It's it's a really good lineup. Um, there's nothing wrong with the lineup. I'm just gonna kind of go out on a little bit of a narrative limb and say that they're gonna have a tough season. They're gonna have a lot of distractions, you know. And I don't have anything against Dusty Baker. I just don't think he's going to lead them to ninety wins. I I just don't. Here's what I love about that, because you, you you and I are very much based on numbers,

and we adhere to them pretty strongly. But I do agree with what you said. I actually think that the narrative matters here, and I think there is a sense of and I'm not talking about oh, they're gonna get thrown at and the media is gonna be on Maybe that's part of it too, But I just don't know Jason, how good they were, you know what I mean? Like,

so all of this cast doubt on everything. For me, I'm not going to bet a team over that number when I'm not convinced there is good based on everything we've learned as our eyes told us they were back in the day, because we don't know anything anymore about this team. I do also think that division has gotten better. So all the Dusty Baker thing is interesting though, because I always say this about Dusty Weathers in San Francisco,

d C, Chicago, wherever he's been Cincinnati. Not only not the best in game decision maker, but he also seems to get unlucky a lot too when he does when he does make good decisions. Um, I'm with you, And you also point out, what if this team starts slow, is he the guy to get them out of that? I don't think so. I'm not sure. I mean, I feel and I don't like to to talk a lot of trash on Dusty because he's he's actually a good manager and he's a good guy. But they didn't hire

him to win games. They they hired him to to stand at the podium. You know. This week, while the team was speaking and basically be a credibility shield. That was the best way I heard it described in an article is that he was hired to shield them from criticism and make them more credible that they're you know, they're changing the organization, which I don't really believe a credibility shield. That's an interesting thing. All right. Give me

a couple other unders. Rockies under seventy four and a half, Pirates under seventy one and a half, uh, Philly's under eighties five and a half, and the Braves under ninety and a half. All right, so let's let's drill down on some of those. Let's start with the Rockies, because I've had a a pretty good relationship over the last three years bidding Rockies. Was right about them on the over one year. I think I was wrong a couple of years ago, and then I was right again on

the under easily last year. What is your thought on the Rockies under it's bad team? And I bet at early sort of anticipating that Nolan Ronado might get traded. He hasn't yet, but I still think he's he's probably closer to the end of his Colorado careers, and you know, it's probably time for him to move to the team that comes put together winner. So yeah, I think you lose Eronado. That's gonna drop a couple of games. And

I just I don't like the team. I don't like there, you know, I don't like them in comparison to everybody else in the division. And I don't like the stadium. Other than other than that, I can't think of anything I don't I don't like about them, and I don't like their stadium. It's just so tough that that is one of those teams that perennially if you take an over on the Rockies, it's just such a frustrating experience

to live through that bet. We don't often talk about that, right Jason, like the experience of actually dealing with that bet for the course of a season. But Rockies overs are particularly frustrated just because that ballpark. As I said many times, do you last year you may have said it as well, I don't know what they're doing in there, but it certainly isn't baseball in that stadium. Something else. Yeah, Um, all right, let's talk about did you did you mention

the Marlins on that list as well? Marlin's over Marlin's was it over. We'll talk about them tomorrow. I'm sorry, Phillies and Braves, and at least because those are related, So Phillies and Braves. You like the under on both the Phillies and the Braves. What numbers did you get them? An? We'll flash those up on the screen at Visa dot Com and the Visa app. But talk to me about those two teams in the NL least Braves ninety and

a half, Phillies eighty five and a half. It's it's not so much an indictment on either team not being really good as much as the division, their division being competitive, and I just don't see either one of those teams really running away and and you know, especially don't see the Braves winning over ninety games this year. And I like the Brave, So I'm I'm happy to take the unders on those numbers and pair it with a with a very low over on the Marlins, which we'll talk

about tomorrow. We'll talk about them tomorrow. There were there. They are on the screen right here at Visa dot Com. These are all courtesy of the South Point Hotel Casino Atlanta. Currently at ninety one. Was Philly currently at right there Jeff six currently in those numbers, those are both both good numbers, so boths both better than the ones you got them at correct. Yeah, okay, um, I could have stopped by South Point. You should have stopped by this point,

all right, um? And then you said also for the others, you you have the Pirates under as well. Yeah. I think they're probably the worst team in baseball. Worse than the Giants, worse than the Orioles, worse than the Tigers. I don't think the Yeah, actually I I have overs on two of those three teams you mentioned. Wow, Pittsburgh's at seventy currently, So why why the worst in your opinion, just comprehensive horrific baseball team. The same reason I say

for most teams is the division issue. They have four other teams in their division that are all all much better than them, so they don't really get any time, offer any any easy games. They're constantly gonna be getting the asses kicked. Ah. I don't like the the rebuilding sort of attitude they have, and they're they're they're admitting and you know, look, we're we hired a new GM,

we're rebuilding, and you know they traded Starlin Marte. They're they're not really doing a ton to add to the team. It's it's they exist. It's nice, but they're not spending money. They're you know, they're not going to make any moves at the trade deadline to be competitive. Just what's they're like on the over with the Pirates. I I can't

find find an upside. I just sit downside. Alright, So unders therefore unders on the Astros, under on the Pirates, under on the Braves, under on the Phillies, there on the Rockies. Jason's got one more under. It's in the NL Central. We'll get to that momentarily, and Jason, I might ask you a question about political markets. Will do that. Coming back Jason Wigarden at spread A PDA hang out one second, coming back on a numbers game at Visa

the Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Back on the numbers game. Indeed, it is Gil Alexander right here, Visa the Sports Betting Network, serious XM channel two O four. Jason wine Garden is with us at spread A Pedia. Alright, as far as your final under in baseball again, let's review Houston Astros Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, and you say they're

the worst team in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates. One last under, sir, and it's from the NL Central and Central the St. Louis Cardinals under eight and a half eight seven. Now you still obviously you don't like it as much at eighty seven, But would you still bet it at eighty seven? Close? Um? Again, a lot of these will go over and tomorrow I pair a lot of overs with an under, so I would probably still bet it if you could find a

competitive number on the other side that I'm looking for. Um, Okay, I guess I can kind of kind of get into it real quick and just say my my division bet for the NL Central is my one sort of upset change different team this year. It's the Cincinnati Reds to win the division. So I think I think the Cardinals take a step back. I think the Cubs take a step back. I think I think a lot of a lot of teams will have games to pick up playing

the Pirates so often. So well you again, for those of who missed the nuances that Jason has sort of hinted in both cases Phillies and Braves under is in some way correlated with the Maralins over, which we'll talk about tomorrow, as is the unders in the NL Central Pirates and Cardinals with the over on the red So you do you have a division bet on them? I don't.

I don't have a division bet on the Reds. I took I took their winds all over because I can still see situations where they're second in the division and a wild card team. You know, So I'm I'm not in love with a lot of the early numbers. I

looked at pen and futures divisions. I really believe you're probably gonna get better numbers on a lot of this stuff in season, because it's not like anybody's going to run away with a division or be a prohibitive pennant favorite other than the Dodges of the Yankees after the

first month. So you know, why invest in in February or March or even April when I could put that money to work in mayage own totally, And as we've I've said this on this show so many times, pre flop futures betting markets some of the worst value you will find in anything. Season win totals still some of the greatest. Because you have a hundred sixty two games, you can overcome negative variants, you know, even if you

don't have credit somewhere. You know, if you're if you have lived through that for six months, I get if there's an opportunity to cost. But at least it's a very cerebral bet. At least you're getting, um, you know, it's it's a very well thought out thing. Futures, you're just not getting a bang for your buck, even with something like the Reds not sexy enough at this point, it's hard not to like that rotation, though, with Trevor Bauer,

Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo. By the way, Trevor Bauer shout out to Trevor Bauer for being among the most vocal against the Astros. Love hearing from Trevor Bauer. Jason will do this tomorrow. We'll we'll come back with the overs tomorrow. Okay, same time, same time. I'll be here, my man. Thank you so much. Jason wein gartan Professional Sports Better Rights for Points brand Weekly on Baseball and beyond. We look forward to all the thoughts that he has

about baseball season win totals. In written for him as well. He'll be back on the show tomorrow to talk about overs. My baseball season win totals manifesto coming up at some point too. Whenever I get off my lazy button, start to write three and oh last year, So three and oh. I was three and old last year on the show. Jason, I think was about two and oh or three and o with his season win totals. Maybe I'm short changing,

and I can't remember how many he had. And Roxy was about eight and one and then had the Nationals mid season win it all had Tampa Bay. I think to get into the playoffs. Roxy had a dream season. Roxy will be on the show here within a couple of weeks. Welcome back to a numbers game with Gill Alexander. Back on the Numbers game, Jeff Parlay putting up the number sign on me. Oh, I see what you're saying now, little signals from behind the glass from Parlay. Jason Winegar

was on with us yesterday. He gave us his favorite Major League Baseball season win total unders. Help me out here, Jeffrey. These were the I think he gave out six. Uh one was the Houston Astros. That's where we started. Uh then we had the Braves in the Phillies from the n L East. We also had the Cardinals and the Pirates from the yat L Central who He described the Pirates as the worst team in Major League Baseball, and I believe it was under on the Rockies as well.

One of his reasons was I hate everything about them, including their stadium. So those are the six h unders in Major League Baseball, the Astros and then that quintetive teams from the National League. Today we talked about his favorite Major League Baseball season win total overs from somewhere under a cloud of smoking southern California. So, Buddy, Jason Weingar, and good morning Jason, Good morning Gil. How's it going. All right, let's talk about overs. You have a handful

of these. You mentioned a couple yesterday, and uh, usually when we use the word correlated, we're talking about parlays and betting, but I guess there is some correlation here because you have the unders with the Braves and the Phillies. It is somewhat correlated. As we mentioned yesterday that you have the over on the Marlins. What number did you get the Miami Marlins at sixty three and a half currently here at the South Point Hotel Casino. That's what

I got, sixty three and a half. I wouldn't I wouldn't chase that number very much higher for for action. So Alf, good number. What you're thinking there, I mean, obviously, it's not a very high bar to clear. That's that's pretty much exactly. It's it's a very low bar. And you know, a moderately competent team should be able to get sixty five wins. They have a nice pitching staff. I don't hate any of those starting pitchers, really, all right,

doesn't hate any of the starting pitchers. The other one that had a a loose correlation with was the Cincinnati Reds. You were you were under on the Cardinals, you under on the Pirates. We talked about the Reds. The Reds, in many ways among baseball circles, are sort of the flavor of the month right there. There's a lot to like with the Reds. We talked about their starting staff yesterday, uh Sonny Gray and uh and Trevor Bauer and Louis Castillo obviously headlining that group. You do not have a

pick on them to win the division. We talked about the fact that we don't love the bank for your buck on futures odds there, but you do have them over Their number at the south point right now is eighty four. Where do you have them? I got eighty three and a half, So eighty eight four and still be playable. I've seen up to eighty five and a half. Wasn't dying to play all the way up to eighty five and a half. But I like them. I think

they made some good moves this offseason. They got Nick Castilianos, they signed the guy from Japan, Akayama. Uh, there's just a lot to like, a lot of a lot of positives, a lot of positive momentum for them. And what's it called we talked to you. I mentioned to you yesterday the n L Central odds. They're like two and a

half to one to win the NFL Central. It's just, uh, you know, they've They've made a nice, nice improvement year over year and and I'm I'm interested to watch them and you know, see how they play alright now now if I know Jason win Garden and I do. By the way, you can follow Jason at spread a Pedia on Twitter. Always a fascinating Twitter follow. You are all about listen, you're in southern California. We watched the Dodgers very closely. Are we over all the Dodgers again this year?

I did. I did bet over on the Dodgers. But let me practice this by saying, um, a lot of what I bet and and the ways I've got. If I'm sitting in front of the computer and news breaks, I can pick off numbers. So when the initial Mookie Betts trade went through, and remember it took a week or so to UH to actually finalize. But but when it when it went through and and all the reporters broke the news, I bet over ninety eight and a half wins and you know, minus one thirty or something

because I knew. I knew that number wasn't gonna last. And unfortunately I didn't also bet the Red Sox under at the same time. I probably should have. But yes, I did bet the Dodgers over. I do expect them to walk easily walk into a hundred winds. I wouldn't I wouldn't rush to bet over a hundred two wins. But honestly, I don't see how they don't hit the overs on any of these members with with the team they have and the ammunition they have to continue to

add more players this year. I mean, it's it's not out of the question that they still they still get not Fernando Francisco Lindor if if the Indians move them, so you imagine, God, I could, I think. And that's the thing is that I think the Dodgers sort of are going to be playing this season with with sort

of a little anger. And it might it might not translate to hit my pitches or anger on the field, but I could see the front office being more aggressive this year and say, you want to you want to see what we're gonna do when we're angry, Well, let's add lind Or to this lineup and and see how you beat us. Now it's at one oh one now at the south point one a one and a half over the west gat you would probably stay off that at this point. If if you were really looking for action,

I tell you, Dodgers over a pass, I wouldn't. I wouldn't really try to get the Dodgers on and under there. But you know, it's just so high when you when you're taking it over a hundred, that's amazing on any team. Just what are you? What are you betting that nothing's gonna go wrong, everything was gonna be great. That you know, there's better bet than that. That's that's what I'm saying. Well for those who have who have followed you followed

me for many years. I mean, one of the things I always say about baseball season win totals is there is a I mean, this is a case for everything, but with baseball season win totals in a hundred and sixty two games, again where you can overcome negative variants.

It also means more when you say this is the this is the bet where there really is a spectrum of possibilities things go completely your way during a season, you know, or the other way that you get a complete you know, rash of injuries or whatever it is, or things just don't work out in the parts that are you know, or hit or miss, and of course there's a spectrum in between that, and so yeah, that's

exactly right. It's we've gotten to the point now with the Dodgers and the Yankee specifically where the number is so high and the Yankees are also above one here where to bet over on those as as bullish as we all are on those two teams and I've said it for two three years now. The chasm between the halves and the have nots in baseball just keeps getting

wider and wider. Well, the teams at the top, and you'll have some thoughts on the teams at the bottom momentarily, which might buck that, But the teams at the top, Yeah, it's just not the best bet out there. We love the over. We don't want to bet the under. But god, I mean, you still are betting when you bet over over one on one, you there still is this thing of life kind of gets in the way sometimes for lack of a better way of putting it. So the Dodgers are at one on one, what are the Yankees

at right here at the south point? Jeff? There one oh one and a half, isn't Yankees are one oh two? Even so the Yankees even still higher. Um, by the way that you alluded to the the hit by pitch prop. You didn't allude to that prop specifically, but you mentioned, uh that with the Dodgers and their anger against the Astros eighty three and a half was saying earlier, William Hill put this up hit by pitches. Uh, Astro's players

getting hit by pitch eighty three and a half. I was mentioning earlier, I don't I'm not playing it because I don't know how it's going to go. We were sort of speculating, Jeff Parl's my producer and I that if you did this April, May, June, July, August, that would be something we might be interested in. But as a season long bed, there's too many variables. We don't know how baseball is going to react. Any thoughts for

you on that problem. I saw eighties three and a half and I saw some off shows post eighty nine and a half, and my initial my initial thought was that the over, you know, just that the over blindly, and then I saw some people sort of break it down and say that would be, you know, one of the third or fourth highest hit by pitch totals in history or something, which which is to say it's not gonna happen. But why why walk up money in a

problem like that? That it's the value thing. I'm just you're not getting You're not getting sufficient value the way minus wasn't ten that prop. So I'm not super interested in that. It's it's a nice headline grabber for for the books. But yeah, you're just not getting value there totally how I feel about it, exactly, how I feel. Not gonna play it myself. We'll come back Jason, hang out through the break. We've got a couple more overs from Jason. Want to get his larger season thoughts as well.

So far on the overs, and again we recap the unders. The unders were the Astros, the Phillies, the Braves, the Rockies, the Cardinals and the Pirates. The overs thus far, uh, Dodgers, Marlins, Reds. Will get to a couple more. These may surprise you coming up on a numbers game right here at Visa the sports Betting netwhere welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander and So my buddy he is on vacation in Rio, and he says to me, He's like, Yo,

who's this Lizzo. There's somebody here named Lizzo that everybody's fawning all over. Who's Lizzo? You don't know who Lizzo is? So that's a myopic he is. It's the sports dating. I'm like, air down, check your nails, not nothing like that, juicy nothing. He's like, no, I never heard of her. It didn't know it. Liza was, Oh, I'm sorry, we're on there had no idea. I is Gil Alexander. We get our we get tweets at maybe the book. I always appreciate the feedback cover the damn line at b

K fund one explain the theory behind futures. To me, you play one unit and wait six months for a result, though you could pick up one unit any day in six months. Seriously, I don't understand not being a jerk here. No, no, no, it's you're not being a jerk. It's a very valid question. By few. I don't think you mean futures. I think you're talking about season win totals, which is what Jason and I are talking about right here. And we'll bring

Jason Weingarten back in at spread Apedia. Uh, understand where you're coming from. And this is one of the things that I always talk about with baseball season win totals. It is a lot. Listen, unless you've got a credit account somewhere. Let's be real, right where people are. Some people are privileged to have that. If you're a mere mortal betting season win totals and you are just betting, you know, minus one ten thing for and and half of the book holding your money for six months. I

get it. I understand. Uh, that's why we don't talk about it for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks. We just do a you know, a few segments on and get a few experts on it. We move on. But I will say this about baseball season win totals specifically, and this is why I do write a season a

yearly manifesto. In baseball season win totals, it is still, of all the season long season win totals and major American sports, to me, again, the most cerebral and the one that makes the most sense because and you just think about it very intuitively. Pro football, you have sixteen games, Uh, you have a bad month, Your season win total bet could be toast, a rash of injury or just the wrong injury to the wrong person. You can be toast.

College football, even shorter baseball is a hundred and sixty two points of data, and again you can overcome negative variants. You can figure out what teams will do at trade deadlines. So just in terms, hey, look, I get it. If you don't want to keep your money somewhere else for for six months, it's a very bad question. But if you're okay with doing that and you can gamble alongside, you know, with other funds, uh, it's about as smart

a bed, I think as you can make. But your your point well taken, and there is a caveat that people must make about that. Anyway, we're bringing Jason Weingarten, who may or may not agree with my assessment there. Um, I don't know, do you, Jason? You you you would agree with that general thought? Yeah, I mean you you pointed out it helps if you could bet the monk credit, so you know, as opposed to going up to the window and plugg him in a bunch of these It's

it's convenient. But I don't know. I just I find them fun. I just like I find most things to do with baseball fund so I would agree, I'll just do it. Um. Let's I just I saw some comments when we were at break. I just saw some comments from Nick Markekis. By the way, Yeah, Manfred should be embarrassed and everybody on the aspost deserves to get beat. Yeah, he said, everyone deserves not a beating, a beating beating, Yeah, which is not the prop By the way, again, at

William Hill. It's more about beatings. It's about beatings. But that's how how mad people are. And Jason, I am like, I am unabashed at how mad. I don't care if I sound like I'm a hundred and ninety years old. This to me is exponentially worse than steroids. It just is if I know what's coming, I've hacked the game. And those Astros non apologies just absolutely tick me off even more. The owner was awful. Manford's response is awful.

Everything about it is really really rouse me up and the players and Justin Turner crushed Manford with his comments to um so yeah, I mean I do agree with that one uh gentleman who tweeted about this in some weird way might be the best thing that's happened to baseball cynically speaking, because it really does raise interests like, oh, how is this gonna play out? The unions eventually gonna have to decide is it gonna stand with the Astros players or is it gonna stand with the rest of

the union that wants to see something's done. I wouldn't really want to be Tony Clark that now. No, I would not either, Tony Clark, who runs the baseball players unions ahead of it anyway, All right, Jason, let's get to your other two overs now. Jeff Parlay, my producer producing number five, and I were hanging out yesterday and I tipped him off on what the other overs were that you had here, and one of them particularly is like, I gotta hear this explanation. But let's start with the

one that's not the one that he's referring to. Let's start with the Baltimore Orioles, who I believe last year you and I were both on the under with the Orioles. You like the over on the Oriole lace explika me. I like over fifty six fifty six and a half specifically. I don't think there's a ton of variants that number. A lot of different numbers out there, but it's it's very hard to not win fifty seven games two years

in a row. And it's not to say that the Orioles are more talented this year than we were last year, or or even better. I'm not even sure they're they're that much better year over year. It's more just a numbers play, especially if you're laying one oh five or even if you can get plus one hundred on it. I've seen I've seen some books begging for action on that over. It's so low, you know, it's sort of the kind it's the kind of bet where you just

kind of close your eyes and press accept. You're not thrilled that you're betting it, you're not excited to watch the games, but it's it's just such a low number that I'm willing to take a shot on the over. The edge is clearly towards the over there and not the under. Yeah, and just do buttress what you're saying. And I talked about this with the Major League Baseball season win totals before one on vacation. I kind of

do this every year. I do it in Point Spread Weekly, which you also write for on baseball and other things. Orioles were fifty four and one oh eight in the actual standings last year. But when you do put them through the prism of such things as build James Patagory theorem base runs, which has to do with the sequencing, they were in earnest right. If you look through those prisons, probably about a fifty eight or fifty nine win team,

and you're like, oh, well, they still suck. Yes, I'm not saying they're any good, but they were all they already were supposed to be over the fifty six and a half that exist right now last year. So it's not that outlandish of a bet, is what Jason is uh sort of indicating there to go over on that.

And you know, again, fifty six and a half, just if you're betting, If you're betting and under fifty six and a half like I did last year, you're basically counting down the games all season, you know, and you're mar you're the same thing with the over. Is it

a hundred? Your margin of error on a fifty six and a half is so low that the last two weeks of the season you're gonna be sitting there saying, there's thirteen games left and I need them to go you know, six and seven or whatever, and you just have such little room for error it. I'm willing to take the side that that the book is is trying to get action on clearly, and you you hit it at something. Again, we mentioned this yesterday, the living through

the bed I had three last year. The Rockies under was a coaster, The Dodgers over was a bit of a Coast job too. The Orioles under and you pointed out very well it was kind of coasty, but it was the one that even late you were like, well, they're the Orioles, so I'm just gonna bank on them being the Orioles. But any real average club could totally

overcome this right now. So all it would have taken is one, you know, aberrational Orioles run, and we might have been toast too, So it's a it's well worth the point. So overall, care yeah, go ahead. You can't. You can't cash winners early in these markets. So let

me tell you. For the NFL, one of my biggest bat, I bet this, you know, on multiple accounts what I could when when the Dolphins traded laymy tunsil, I bet under five wins, under four and a half in and under four wins for Dolphins, And that was looking like one of the best bets I ever made. They were owing seven, ended up with five wins, and I look stupid.

So I mean, you just have no idea how these bets are gonna play out, And you know, like football, sixteen games is different than a hundred sixty two, But you know, you just can't cash a beat halfway through the season or two thirds of the way through the season. You just gotta watch them play out, and a lot of times, a lot of times they come very close

to the numbers. We do that the last week or a couple of weeks of the baseball season, where there's always a handful of teams right six or seven, they're still in the balance come the last week or even to the last series of the major league baseball season. Now here's the last one. We're talking to. Jason wine Garden Pro Sports Better Rights for point Spread Weekly can fall him on Twitter at spread Apedia. Parlay. This is the one that you were most curious about over on

the Tigers talk to us. Yep, what's the number you're get in the same thing. Fifty seven? I see fifty seven now south seven. Yeah, so fifty six and a half fifty seven? Still still all right? Uh? You know again, it's it's not not a bet that I have a huge conviction on that that I'm gonna tell you, Oh, this team's ten games better, or you know what, even five games better. I'm not sure they're that much better

than that number. But what I am sure about is the Indians aren't as good a team in that division. The White Sox are the A L Reds, for you know, to say that like that, they're they're very hyped. The Royals are not very good. There's a lot of wins available in that division for a team to get over fifty seven wins. And the one thing, the one thing the Tigers have going for them is they have three pitching prospects that don't suck, that that are far from

from sucking, are actually very good. Matt Manning, Katy mis and uh uh Screwball. I forgot the guy's first name, but those three pictures, and I don't expect all of them to be up this year, but I do expect at least one possibly to to get you know, a decent run on the rotation should help them a little bit,

should should maybe get them to sixty wins. I mean, like I said, to to lose hundred and eight games or a hundred and five games year over year, you have to be an incredibly bad organization that's not trying to get better. And again just to Butcher's that, they were forty seven and one fourteen last year, forty seven and winning percentage. But if you go through if you believe in such things which I subscribe to, such as

base runs. Again, sequencing has to do with your fortune or lack thereof in terms of the events printing, both offensively and defensively. So again, the hack that i'd like to just the example I like to give is if you had three singles, a home run, and three strikeouts in an inning, and they came in that order, three singles, let's say they were all on base. Then you hit the home run, whether they were on base or not. Um, you get four runs and the three strikeouts come at

the end. But if you have the exact same events. UM, and let's say the strike let's say you get a single single single, they're all still on basis bases are juice, then you know, um, but the home run precedes those and then the strikeouts come, you only get one run. So basically it's it's there's an expected run total per events in every half inning of baseball, both offensively and defensively.

And the Tigers got the worst of it last year, and through that prism, really, instead of being a forty seven win baseball team, they should have been a fifty four win baseball team. So as bad as they are, and they were bad, they weren't as bad as forty seven wins at least through that um, given that perspective, so not as much to improve on as a actual standings might reflect to the to the naked eye. If that makes any sense to folks, Jeffrey, are you uh?

Are you okay? Are comfortable with that explanation on the over of the Tigers? Are you satisfied? Of course? But again that roster is just so so so bad. But if my again, remember we we all had the Casey mis Rookie of the Year ticket last year. If if he ends up reaching his potential, look, they could steal a few games here and there, and it's such a low number that you could get over that by accident.

It really is an accidental six out of eight and all of a sudden, no wait a second, they just have to play three hundred and all they're they're they're there. So over for Jason, Dodgers, Tigers Orioles, um Red's and Marlins. Those are the five overs, now, Jason. If I asked you beyond these, if I just said, okay, um, look, we all know the Yankees are good. The Dodgers are good. I would assume the Astros would still be good. We'll see. Um,

there's the defending champion Washington Nationals. What's the team besides the more vious one's like the Dodgers and Yankees. Let's just throw those two teams out, Like, what's the team none of us are thinking about that you think might actually make a run? Here? Is it again? Like a team like the Athletics is is definitely on that list. Red Sox, White Box are pretty pretty high up on the list. I think the Angels not necessarily getting slept on,

but the Angels have improved, you know, significantly added. Adding Randon as a protection for Trout was a big move. They got Dylan Bunny, Julio Turan. I mean, I know those aren't names that to really move the meter for pitching, but those are those are guys that, hopefully, with with health, can give you a combined three hundred and almost four hundred endings of average to the slightly better than average pitching. You know, they got the best defense of shortstop in baseball.

There's there's a lot of things to like about the Goals this year, and I don't like the Angels, so you know, it's it's it's it's a compliment coming from me that that they've put together a decent team, you know. And that's the thing, when or when I think about the A L. H A L. West, I could see a whole range of possibilities where the Astros aren't the first team in the division this year, they could easily

be a wild card team. Let me decipher that sentence for Jason for those who didn't get that, he likes the Angels um as a as a team to do perhaps better than the conventional wisdom suggests this year. He doesn't like them from a human from a human standpoint or for whatever reason, as an organism. As an organization, I'm not a fan of that. That's right, as I guess that's a compliment from Jason that he thinks that team is going to do well. All right, Jason will

have you back. We'll obviously talk more politics, but when you're when you're prepared to talk about some props like home runs and cy Young and that kind of stuff, we can talk about that as well. Before the sea. Yes, yeah, I'm I'm getting excited. So far, most books haven't put up. I've started list coming out. I thought Will Hill put him out. Westgate has them, but as soon as the sus books want to put up play A Futures, I'm excited to beat them. I am as well. Jason. We

appreciate it, man, Thank you so much. Thanks for having me. I'll talk to you guys later. I love it. Jason wein garden. He gets me excited for baseball. He does um hit by pitchers get me excited too, but Jason gets be excited for all the bets as well. Yes, Jeffrey, I will say the one tweeter that did say that it is the best thing to happened to baseball in the cynical way, it actually really is. That was my because because you're you're spot on, because this is the

most interested I've been in baseball in February. In February and maybe about I don't know, probably ten years at least. It's been a long time, and ten a long in ten years the February when we were all so interested in baseball. Um, baseball needs a spark. Not quite the spark they were looking for, but they got a weird sort of bizarro spark. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander. It was my guests the first ever

Numbers Game episode. When Beeson started back in February of seen been on the podcast before the beating of the book podcast, of course, a legendary founder of Las Vegas Sports Consultants here in Las Vegas, legend of Las Vegas. I'm trying to make him feel uncomfortable. Lady, ladies and gentleman Roxy Roxborrow in studio. How you doing, Roxy, always the best dressed man in the sports book. That's how you can tell rocks low bars. Well, it is a

low bar. Both things are true, though both things are No, you look great? How are you feeling feel good too? Yeah? Another year, another baseball season, just chugging along. Yeah, Is that the only thing you bet these days? Pretty much? In a soccer because really, yeah, it's a pretty efficient market. But um, there's no problem with limits, right, So I mean more or less you can bet, you know, unless

you're Warren bobbed. You can bet whatever you want. Um, and then baseball because I love it, but you know, there are limits on baseball. And but there are ways to get down for pretty big numbers if you had a different places and come up with a creative waste of creative waste of bit? What do you what is your We were talking a little bit all fair here before you came on. UM. So it used to be that mid February, somewhere around Valentine's Day, the Atlantis in

Reno would put out lines. They weren't widespread, they were just in one shop, and then Vegas would come out with him a couple of weeks later, and then was it CG that went a week earlier? I think one year at February seventh, and then last year was Caesar's in January, and then this year was William Hill in December. How do you like that? How that's go? Well? I like it because um, I don't need to see two

sets of numbers to bet. But it costs caught so off guard that we were only done with about um six teams. It takes us about three hours to do a team, right, So we're doing two teams a day, figuring the odds will come out maybe after January January, right, And it caught us off guard. So I was going in,

I was betting two games at a time. Come back, I was, you know, coming in every day and bet and stuff because we just didn't have the work done but usually when you go first, there's nobody else doing the work either. So it's not like people were beating us to numbers. I think maybe we lost one or two numbers, but you know most people weren't ready either.

Well that was very interesting when you said that. First of all, you said cut us, so it's not just you and your partners partners, okay, And you said it takes about three hours to do every team. So you have so you have a a tried and true process that you go through very mechanically every year on this stuff. Well what happens. We can automate it, but then we go back and double check it by hand because usually we just have so much time, why not double check it?

And when and when you double check all your work by hand, anyway, you get more familiar with it, you know it better. You're just not looking at a sheet of numbers, right right, But this year, uh yeah, it was totally different. So before before we get into your your actual baseball picks here, how how what is your because you're the guy to ask about something like this.

Remember I called you the Marshall McCluin of this soul racket reference to uh to Annie Hall where Woody Allen uh is annoyed by people arguing in a in a movie line back when there used to be lines headed into movie theaters and Uh. He looked into the camera and said, if filily there was someone I could talk to to tell these people, And then he brings up media critic Marshall mcluin tells them off and looks at the camera says, if only life were like this in

its very neurotic way. So you're the Marshall a clue to all this? So since legalization, Uh, any any sort of broad statements you can make in your reaction to how things have gone? Has anything surprised you? Has anything disappointed you? How have your worst fears come true? Roxy? Oh, I don't know. I never not really, I've always not my worst fears ever come true. I always knew there was some states that weren't. It was going to be small states who are political. Leg We're gonna go with

a lot of reason. We're gonna have a high take out because the nature of all gambling is is political. Um, you go back, horse racing is probably the most political game of all time. You know, they have monopoly for a long time. I don't see anything. You know, I thought New Jersey did it the best, and uh, and I thought it was important that they go first because others could emulate them. Well nobody else is so is that? Yeah, there's that, which I'm a little disappointed, and I guess

Colorado might be pretty good. Um. Also, it's not a it's not a godsend for for professional betters, which I sort of knew was coming because the market sports betting, the game is going to be to a lot of um many and micro bets and eventually it will be practically all in game. I haven't changed my mind on that it's going to be all in game betting that five G will facilitate with low latency and it will be just a series of micro bets. Uh, it'll have

to be algorithm generated. Not only the prices will have to be algorithm generated, the movement the line will have to be algorithms generated because you can't hire enough staff to be looking at five thousand things you're offering, right.

I really do think the bookmakers here now Nevad is in a unique situation and they still are taking large bets so with the counter, but eventually you won't be able to manage everything with guys looking at scueens over the counter a lot of if you're going to just keep offering bets and bets and props on every game, and props on every hockey game, and let's say you get up to a hundred props today on the NBA each individual NBA game, they won't be able to move

these by hand. You know, it's the end game thing. Though, I've been very honest with the audience about this, is it makes for when you do a show two hours on sports betting every day, every weekday, it will become increasingly more difficult as time goes on, because more the percentage of in game will so outweigh pre flop bets that this will be of slightly different endeavor because we can talk about you know, we can handicap and analyze for as long as we want, but it's a different

story to come back after the fact and be like, well, when I was in gaming yesterday, because you can't really do that while it's happening, and so people don't take again that as well as they do, you know, and understandably so pre flop analysis of stuff, that's that's a challenge, yes, because there's not enough time for a narrative on in game betting. Everywhere there's been in game betting at Dwarfed pregame betting, it's not even not it's not even close.

Once people realize that there's no sense of urgency, it's not imperative to bet before kickoff or tip off or face off. Um, it changes the game totally, Yeah, it does. And uh again. I had a gentleman on uh when I was first doing my podcast a decade ago from the UK. He was one of the lead developers of the MICUs algorithm over there at Candor Technology, and he told me at that time he was like, it's you know, it's the handle in the UK. It will be like

this in five years. I was like, easy on the five. But yes, I get the the overriding sentiment, do you want to brag about your baseball picks last last year? Can we start here? Well, I'll just say you keep plugging at this and uh, every year you have a

dream year. This was your dream year. Yeah. My eleven to ten bets were six and two, and then I had which I gave out in this show, and then I gave out the Rays to win the wild Card game that was eight to one, and I gave you two mid season future book plays, which were the Nats to win the division that lost, but the Nats to win the Pennant which was twenty one and also one. So I basically had just those Those were all my bets. So I just just had one of those years. I mean,

this is there, they are right there. Rox'll screen a piece of dot com the Visas. The only ones that didn't get there of the season win totals. Oh what this is? Uh? This is last year? Is the only ones that didn't get Rangers, the Mariners, and the Rangers. Right, Yeah, the Mariners over didn't get there. The Rangers under did not either. The Rangers really outperformed. Uh, they're they're underlying. But Diamondbacks, Phillies, Diamondbacks over, Phillies under, Blue Jays under

White Sox under Marlin's under they all got there. And then as Roxy was just talking about, you had the Rays to win the wild Card game at eight to one. Now, are we're giving you full eight units on that or are we what are we doing with that? Well, it's gonna only give me four units. Sign it if you want what I was looking for, is a bet on the Rays to make the playoffs. And the Rays were consensus around town to sixty or two seventy to make

the playoffs. So what I did is I made this bet instead because the only way they'd have to be in the wild card game. So I would chop that off for four units because it was a play for them to make the playoffs. So you can get creative, to get down more on what you want to get down. We'll talk about that a little later. And I believe I told you the Astros minus twenty four and a half against the Rangers as you couldn't possibly sweat it because but it would get there. They beat him by

twenty nine games. Yeah, so that that's one you know, you can't possibly win. And there's two weeks to go, you know, Yeah, and then you have the Nationals. What you said to win the division didn't work out, but to win the Pennant obviously did. And I don't know if you know this, roxy they are World Series champions. They are, and the the World Series bet eluded me

because um I didn't see the price. Now, one time they were sixty one in the irregular season, but it wasn't anything I saw and uh um when they were twenty to one to win the Pennant. I didn't I passed on forty to one to win the World Series because I didn't think if they got there they would have been favored. So yeah, hey, I'm not complaining. All right, so let's start. Roxy well says we have you here. Let's start. Obviously, people are like, all right, you got

for this year. Let's go. Oh yeah, we should always talked about this year. You know, we were like, that's great, thanks for that wasn't No, that was last year. That was last year. But for this year, you have seven that you like, let's do them. You like to do them division by division. Um, now you're taking a pass on the American League East. None of those teams interest you? Yeah, I'm I don't have anything in it. Nothing in the

reason I like to do it by divisions. By the way, you look, you're playing seventies six games inside your own UM division, right and so UM to me, it's correlator to mean when when you're doing that. So if you're going down and you your figures say, well you're like every team in or division over, uh, it's possible, but you're probably missing something somewhere. Not only that, the market is shaded to the over to begin with as well, So if you're the flurry of overs might not be

the greatest uh maybe not. I've always I've always thought that was a little bit if Yeah, if you bet every under, you'd have a really small percentage. But remember, you don't have to make all thirty bets. You just have to make the ones that makes sense for you. All right, Should I feed these two or you want to start ahead? Feed him to me? All right? So we go to the Ale Central. This is a very in vogue club Roxy everybody for the second straight year,

but especially this year. Everybody loves the Chicago White Sox. Not you, not you. I don't like the White Sox for a lot of reasons. Um, this has been a team that is probably been projected wrong by players and bookmakers for a long time. They've uh, they've gone under seven straight years, and there's only two teams that have ever had that streak of going under. That's not why I'm playing I'm under. I'm just because I don't believe so much in that historical uh numbers. But they've always

been overrated. I think let's say this they won seventy two games last year. Now you're asking them to win six. So they pick up a lot of players. But if you could buy your way to uh four games over five hundred from winning seventy two games, everybody would do it. That's very true. I mean the Phillies tried to do it last year. Two. Yeah, you just can't on paper.

If some of these players might add up to give you fourteen more games, and they do have some young players which will cut him a little slack for but I don't see it. This division also is better than last year. I have this division at about seven an average of seventy eight and a half winds were last year it was seventy five. So I also think divisions slightly better. It's not to push over it was last year. Well i'll tell you. I'll just sort of add on

to that. They were seventy to win team in the standings last year through pythag Pythagoran theorem base run sixty nine, So maybe it's slightly less negligible now, but less than seventy two. One of the things on their in their lineup, So there's always a note on the line up there always knowing the pitching staff. And I'm curious how much of this you even factor in or if you just it's not part of your calculus. But they had they had like a third of their lineup had unbelievable batting

averages on balls in play. So for those of us who love fan graphs, they had a real outlying thing with Johann Mulkata, Johann Mlcata, rather Tim Anderson and Lourie Garcia, who were all in like the top ten or fifteen of babbit guys, which is just a reflection of good fortune more than it is a skill set that you can repeat. Well, yes, and Fan actually Fan Graff isn't a team or a fan of this team either. This year. Um, what a way they have? Like, oh no, they haven't

right there four and a half. But I haven't like base runs. I think they're significant during the year two when you're looking at futures and you're looking to dig your way out and props as a year agoes on. But I know the White Soxes, and I also have an over in this division, which is Kansas City, who won fifty nine games last year, but our projections come out to them about a seventy win team. This has been This has always been a Darling's projection through the years,

either over or under. This is a very bold one for you, I thin a very bold Yeah, it is because I try to get away from making bad teams win. Usually it's true, not in the over nighters. I really believe that once the team starts to fall apart um, they just pack it in. I actually think this. You talk about rebuilds now, there's a difference between a rebuild

and just a Tanka Paloosa. I actually think the Royals think they're turning the corner with some players, and I just think this will be a different Royals team this year. I don't see them as a team that's just looking for draft choices. I think they're going to try to put a fairly competitive team on and so we're asking them to win more than sixties six games, which goes against my m O, which you have known me for years. Yeah,

I know you don't like doing that. It's because it's a it's a tough thing thing to live through on those bets. Like I remember once when I happened teams. I think with the Royals, what's interesting is and you always make this this assessment when you're talking about MLB season win totals is trade deadline. And with the Royals, if you look at their contracts, who would they trade

at the trade deadline? Based on contracts? Maybe they're they're closer Ian Kennedy, but it's not like they're gonna They're not like with Maryfield because he's locked into a cheap contract.

Uh so Layer is still locked in and so they probably will go with this group of players, you know, the White Sox and the Royals together when you go to the pictures, I think what's stark about both of these teams is you have to make the assessment, which you obviously know for many years before I have, is is their performance from one year sustainable to the next? In the case of the White Sox to the good.

Is Lucas Giolito more likely to have his nineteen season or his horrific In the case of the Royals, are those guys like Jake Judas and bred brad Keller are they Can they possibly be as bad as they were? And the answer probably is no, Well we're hoping it's yes, that's the hoping. Yes. Okay, they did have a good bullpen last year, though, the Royals did. That's that's obviously

something for for an over on the season winters. You want that to syve probably done bullpens better than anybody if you go back and look at the last ten years. Oh sure, the Royals, well they change the game when they won the World you know, that's the World Series they did. And they've also been good about um the acquisitions they've made for the pen, and I like the way they they moved their pen. I know new manager

this year, but I don't see anything. Basically they've set the way they've set the standard for the way everybody uses their pen anyway. Yeah, of course, the you need numbers fifteen. They went to Herrera, Davis, Holland seven eight nine, which was their way of sort of backfitting the game. And the Royals were everybody tried to copy of the Roads were like, hey, look if we had a bigger payroll, we wouldn't have done this, but this is how we

hacked the game. All right. More in the American League. We'll go to the American League West Texas Rangers. You have a call on there. I like them. Both under and the Astros are sort of an enigma. I think that the over under Rod would be higher than nine. But nobody knows what's gonna happen to the Astros this year. It's very true. I mean, we know they're gonna be under a lot of pressure. I mean, how much were they cheating last year is sort of important, sort of

two thousand seventeen doesn't or doesn't make any difference. Two thousand seventies gone. Um, how much they cheat last year is what we really need to know. I want to you know, all this stuff always is in the price all the time. So when during the regular season, if you're betting every game, right that that's you know, they're winning at home all the time. That's sort of gonna be comes out in the wash. I I never worried about that too much. But we just don't know what's

gonna happen with this team this year. The talent wise, oh, they're by far the best in division if you just add up the talent, so I think, but they're gonna they're they're team win anyway, Okay, and then the A's are the massive over for poor formers some years, right, Ny could easily win ninety games, and I think the Angels are a lot better team this year, they're gonna score.

If they can find solve any pitching, they could be in there for a wild card and maybe you know, they're like, could be a seventy eight shows team win. So somebody's gotta lose. And Texas is a tough one because Texas one seventy eight last year and we bet them under seventy one. And now they've gone out and

made good acquisitions. Their base runs worse seventy one last year, Yes they were, and I thought there's a regression factor for this year and they've they've done a good job of contracting that that regression with the players they they brought in. But somebody has to lose in that division. And New Ballpark or not. I think they're the ones that are going to go under seventy nine and a half,

which you can get here. And the new ballpark is always very interesting because obviously from a traditional hitters park, uh that was the previous Global Life Park. Now it's Global Life Field. You now they have a retractable roof, so you never know. It's a tough projection, right because you don't know, first of all, are they can manipulate roof according to opponent, and that sort of thing. But does it harm their hitters? Does it enhance their pitching?

I mean, because it works both ways. So it's very difficult to make that assessment. Well that's true. Um, you have the greatest minds and architects, steam arc texts in the world. I still can't figure out wind flows because it's a difficult business. You don't know what happened when wind flows get into certain buildings. You can see massive changes, like Yankee stadiums across the street. One was a launching

pad right field and one wasn't. I mean, you end up with, uh, well, Cincinnati was supposed to be the ultimate neutral ballparks, totally wrong. So you just you just can't tell. I mean, the cops put in the big scoreboard in the back and change the wind flows a lot. Again, so you don't know until they play there. It'll be interesting. If you like the bed Over n Unders, you know, you really need to be be clued into those games and

see early if there's something going on. And ROXY is being somewhat modest here because there is no one who figured out ballpark factor before you did. You were the guy who first exploited what we know today as ballpark factor. You as a better were the first one to be like, hey these things played differently. Yeah yeah, and so I then it figures then it follows that you have the Mariners under as well. I can't see any hope of

the Mariners. They won sixty eight games last year, and remember they had that ridiculously fast start two There was guys thought they could be the the what the Mariner team that one d sixteen games and all that stuff? Is it like a lot of nonsense around but the thing is nine two the rest of the way. Yeah, So I mean, you know, where are they going to go from here? I don't think they're young players are

that good. They have a lot of guys that should be better and aren't, and after a few years you just figure, okay, they're not going to be better. I just don't see where they go, you know. I mean, if they have anybody that somebody wants at the trade deadline, don't Well, people want Marco Gonzalez, but I don't. I don't think he's moving. He's there ace, let's put it that way. Yeah yeah, but I think he's a good picture to come out every you know, every fifth day.

But there's not much behind that and I think this. You know that one time there was seventy two and a half on this number, and uh, but I'm saying right now at sixty six and a half here at the south point, you can go. You go under that one. You still go with ye. You can't wonder about the numbers.

You've got a lot of people get prejudiced. So you go under an early number like seventy two and a half and seventy one and a half and seventy and a half, and then it's up sixty nine and a half and you say, I can't go under sixty nine a half. Already went under seventy two and a half. That's irrelevant. It is what it is the day you're

looking at it. And if you've never seen that seventy two and a half, you thought sixty nine and a half was a good bet under, you make that bet and you just keep betting it unto you don't think there's anything in it. Whereas a wisdom roxy Roxboro, So the American League picks White Sox under Royal's over, and then both the Rangers and the Mariners under in the American League West, we will do his three National League season win totals. Coming right back on a numbers game

at Visa these Sports Betting Network. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Okay, I'll try not to interrupt as much on this so we can, so we can get through all these You've got three more in the National League again, you're taking a pass on the n L East. Nothing there. Now, if you're a better um that wants a better division with the futures opinion, that would that was a good one to do it. But I just don't see anything in it. You have

a future's opinion in at least, actually you don't. The just saying thing. I'll just say the Marlins are a team that's going to be better this year. The problem is the four teams ahead of them are all trying to be better too, and uh, it's really tough for them. If if they won seventy games, it wouldn't surprise me. But basically the other it's an arms war in that division. So alright, and L Central, you're going a little bit against the grain here in terms of going against the

solid organization you like the Cardinals under. Now, this probably would be my best play um. The Cardinal Cardinals projected around two wins. I really don't like teams that don't do anything during the off season, and this team, not only have they not done anything, there's talk that uh Nolan will be on the block at the All Star break. I just don't see the pitching looks disastrous to me. Um, they won seventy one games last year. I don't see

how they get back to that. Uh. And then if you get the kicker, if Nolan leaves, UH, they're probably in free fall. Cardinals won games last year. Yeah, hold on, I'm getting confused with the team with the with the Rockies. No, but but the Rockies or team didn't make another change too. So basically my my theory here as teams that don't

make changes. I don't like them. Rockies didn't do anything. Really, Cardinals didn't do anything, So I don't I don't like teams that don't do anything, and I don't see how they can get better. I thought the number was too high.

It's competitive division. The Reds for the first time. The Reds are, by the way, a team that's also gone gone under seven years in a row, and and I've been trying to make them go over a few times if I passed, this time passed, Okay, so it clarifying Cardinals under Cardinals under, uh, that is your best play Cardinals under I would say so all right. And Rockies since we got to the n L West, we'll start to get the Rockies unders. For the same reason. They

do absolutely nothing. They have that problem with third baseman and um tried to trade Aeronauto this officer, I think you'll be on the block. Well, they've already said he'll be on the block before the trade deadline. I just don't see how they get better. And I think it's a hard, long season for them. They have a responsibility probably to make a better team because they have the fifth largest attendant, so they have people that come to the games, and they have spent a lot of money

through the years and they just haven't gotten anything from it. Really. Um So I see the bottom falling out on them. Such a tough ballpark. It's it's it's it's hard on them. The other thing is, um uh, outside of playing the Giants, they're gonna have a hard time. I think Arizona is a little better, in San Diego's better, and the Dodgers or the Dodgers probably the greatest hunder and sixty two

game team ever constructed. I would agree with that. Actually, yeah, all right, there's one more though, so under on the Cardinals, under on the Rockies. You do like the Padres over? Yes, this is um boy. I wish they weren't on TV out here because this is gonna be a hard one to sweat. This projection is a little different. As much as I like teams trying to buy their way to get better, this is the team that actually has the

players on the team right now to get better. I don't think we saw the best of them last year between a lot of injuries and a young a lot of young players trying to play the game. So I don't think we saw the best of them last year. This is gonna be a struggle to get over this eighty three. But my numbers came up seven, and that's that's a big gap between what you can bet over and what they are. I'm laughing because I can tell how much you hate you hate liking the over here.

I just don't. But it's a bat and I'm on it. And then as a bonus play, I'm gonna get out. Bonus play is because I like Kansas City. I don't like the Cardinals, so there's a matchup at Westgate where I'm taking Kansas City plus twenty games against the cards. So to me, that's also another way to get more money on the on the two teams. I like. There you go, creative ways of doing it, and you said you're gonna talk about that, So that's that's an example

of that. Find derivative markets, find other creative props where you can creatively figure out a way to essentially the same correlated handicap get more money down on your conviction. Yeah, because eventually you're gonna the numbers. You keep betting under a rover, and the numbers keep moving, and eventually you're gonna lose value on every bet where the line moves, you're gonna lose some value. And the question is when

is it time to stop? Okay, And then when you've decided you don't want to bet anymore, you have to look for some creative ways. Teams to make the playoffs, for example, might be one or you know, because you can bet against them to make the playoffs and and

the matchup bets or another. The problem with the futures now is the league so bifurcated that you just have all the low priced teams looked like they ought to be low priced teams, and there's not a high enough price on any of the long shots for be that

are compelling. Excellent use of bifurcated roxy. That's my favorite part, So Horrey, the haves and the have nots, and there really is like I used to in my manifesto Baseball manifesto, which I'll put out here in the next couple of weeks, uh three and oh last year over Dodgers, under Rockies, under Orioles, and they were pretty much all cruise jobs. But there were one of the things that I used to do in there was put up futures place. There's

just nothing to do anymore. Really, Yeah, yeah, it's not it's not nearly. Uh, there's there's no point to it before the season. Oftentimes you can get better rods on it as the season goes in, you can. I would say, if you had an opinion in the National League East, that would be the one you could attack for future books Division Pennant World Series, because there's four teams in there with a chance. You have to sort of think that the wild cards are coming out of that that division.

All right, See if I get any player thoughts, I'm gonna put Roxy on the spot here. Coming back after the break, we'll wrap it up, we'll recap all his plays. Roxy Roxborough, the legendary kind enough to join us right here at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Keep it right here for more of a numbers game with Bill Alexander. Her Welcome back to a numbers game with Gil Alexander. All Right, Roxy's season win totals and none of these currently are that far off from where you bet them.

You Actually we actually set aside ones that were far off the number that you got him at. Yes, I just give out the games and the prices that you can get. Now, it's truly dist genuine for people to come on these shows and say, well I got four and a half and it's seven and a half or something like that. I mean, you have to give out something that people can bet, right, Yes, it don't, we know it. The reason most of the armors are the way they are now is because I bet them into

that physician. So I mean I gave out the ones that if I woke up today I'd still bet them, and those are once again the White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Cardinals, and Rockies under the Royals and the Padres over you you were sharing a story off air for those who love baseball. I think it's a great story. Well it is. I have a Baseball Hall of Fame pen on today. And when it opened in Cooper's Town, my mother was there. She was thirteen years old. Um. She scored the game.

She got a scorecard and scored the exhibition game, which is a bunch of retired All stars against another bunch of retired All stars who went six innings. Uh. She snapped photos when she was there. She's still with us. The she sent the program to the Baseball Hall of Fame. They loved it, and they asked her what she liked to come for a V I P tour with some guests. So we had a family reunion last year in Cooperstown

and they treated us so well. And my mother's uh ninety three and a half now, and she's really sharp and um, and she loved baseball all her life and that's probably why the interest from me and my my two brothers UM. Plus her father was of course the one that uh took her and his chief bender was his favorite player. My mother's favorite player was Jimmy Fox. So her mom is four. They think she's one of

the only people from that ceremony that was alive. I mean, they could remember it right, And she has documentation because as photos she's going to donate. Also, how did she feel about the way your career went? Was? She was? She just ridiculously proud of you. Now that's why I ask. I mean, she's like, what are you doing? I mean, my dad went to Dart with the Harvard n b A. I don't think that they really thought going to Las

Vegas was the best use of my talents. They used to said they had their oldest son worked out West and I after it at that. Of course, then one night I got on with Dan Rather on the CBS Evening News for some type of interview, and then all of a sudden, her friends started calling her that was your son, that was your son. Oh yes, she's rather prominent figure in Las Vegas. That was a game changer, and the mother son relationship changed from that point. It's

very similar. You know. I always joke on the air too that my parents are immigrants. They always wanted a doctor and a lawyer, and my brother, my only sibling. He became a doctor and just like you just said that, they go and the other one we don't really understand what he does, really get it. I'm glad that worked out for your dad rather had you onto that that uh confirmed to your mom that you were doing something good or at least prominent. Anyway, Um, that's a great

that's awesome. That's a great story. So you you went to cover that. Do you attribute though, not only your fandom, but do you attribute You said, your mom's as sharp as ever. How you ended up so much of that is from your mom, you think, Oh, there's no question about it. We used to get an updated version of the Baseball Encyclopaedia every year when we were kids, and we used to have trivi your question to look up all the old players. Yeah, thank you, Roxy, I appreciate

it as always my pleasure. Uh. May your season win totals go as well. But we just thank you for being here. The great Roxy Rox Burrow on a numbers game at Vicent the Sports Betting Network