Beating The Book: Paul Sporer, FanGraphs, on Fantasy Baseball Overvalued/Undervalued Starting Pitchers

We do it each and every year. His list of overvalued starting pitchers, undervalued starting pitchers, and some of his thoughts on some betting props as well, including Garrett Cole related ones, New York Yankees, a L and n L Rookie of the Year. Even have a tribute question in there as well. Paul Spore Fantasy Baseball, primarily on today's Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy Welcome back to a numbers game with Gil Alexander. Oh we get tweets at bet

in the book. Always appreciate the feedback when everything that PEPSI guy, I'd love to sit down and listen to what the value is around a wind total in MLB. I know it will never be a topic over the radio because it'll lose most but if I could ever sit down with Gil or Roxy, I would most certainly bring this up. Let's talk numbers, hashtag always taking notes. Thank you. First of all, let me just say I don't deserve to be coupled with Roxy. Anybody should be

able to hang out with Roxy. That is, that would be fabulous. What that refers to is we did on Twitter yesterday for anybody who was interested. We won't do it on the radio because it's too wonky, but anybody interested in discussion about the value of a win in a baseball season win total. Roxy answered it his way. I answered in mine um with a shout to Joe Peta helping out. So interesting discussion, but that's online there, so thank you for that. That pepsi guy, Uncle scratch off.

How did Warren lose Massachusetts in burning not get California? Big? The thing about Warren mass chooses Let me just say this, I would for all my by and bets that one. I would not have thought for one second to have bet Biden Massachusetts. There was no he was like the third shot. He was like plus twelve hundred or something like that. He had no, he didn't even go to the state. There were so many states that he conceded

that he ended up winning. It's just unbelievable. And by the way, Michael Bloomberg, as you said, suspending his candidacy and endorsing Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabber not suspending her candidacy yet. I just I just want to throw that out there. Uh, this is Lido seventy tried that predicted yesterday for Super Tuesday after you had them on pretty cool site. Was entertaining, made a few bucks, was like day trading. Basically, thanks for opening my eyes to a new market to bet on.

You're the best. Love the jokie, but point thank you leto seventy five and good shout out to uh predicted right there. Uh, this is Chris ge Hey, Gil, thanks for steering me towards the political market. I had no idea it existed. Made a killing on Biden last night. Do you know how long the typical book takes degrade these political bets. That's a great question. Um, it does not. Obviously, as you're noticing it, it is not an immediate thing. They want to be super sure that these things get

rat fied. And as you know, you know, voting inconsistencies and all kinds of voting. Shenanigan's happened, so they take their time. Um but I would imagine with some of the ones that were obvious yesterday, you should get those graded. Not so sure about say A, Texas, which might take a little while longer because there were some issues there yesterday. UM So, lots of tweets, We appreciate it all. Here's Tim Thompson and all Ron Burgundy my way through this one.

If you go back to the off season leading up to the midseason San Francisco, Jimmy G. Trade Lynch asked if Brady was available. Yes, he did, so the interest has been there also. TB twelve went to Sara High School and San Mateo. Thank you also Alma mater of Barry Bonds. Yes, not Menlo, San Mateo. Appreciate that both though Silicon Valley Way for those familiar with the with the South Bay over there in the Bay Area. Now a discussion that I've had for I don't know, maybe

nine ten years in a row with this gentleman. He's the best in the business when it comes to so many things baseball, but especially starting pitchers, where he had a starting Pitcher guide when he was oh fort in fifteen years old. I believe it was ladies and gentlemen from fan graphs. It's Paul Sport. Good morning to you, PAULI morning gal. How's it going. Weren't you like fourteen or fifteen when you first started that there? Oh, I was not not that young. I might have looked that young.

It's so hard for me to think of you as thirty eight man because it's been so all right, So Paul, this is what we do, and this is for this works out great for both a betting audience and for of course, the main thing is for a fantasy audience. But there's so many betting applications because it's starting pitchers. So we just do overvalued and undervalued. You have him on a tier system first of all. But then we

should stress. I guess the first thing we should stress here is you correct me if I'm wrong that even though you might think someone is overrated, that doesn't mean you think they suck. And even though you think someone is underrated doesn't and you think that the greatest thing that's ever existed just based on draft position, right? Average draft position? All about all about price? Right? I mean

it's the same thing in the handicapping market. You don't have like a team, but there's a certain price where you're gonna get in on that team. Uh. It's the same thing with with fantasy baseball players. You never want to write a guy off. I mean, I guess I shouldn't say never. There's injury factors, but you know, a healthy, capable player. They all have a certain price. So yeah, it all depends on what they're going for. Okay, so we're gonna have two things going on at the same time.

I just don't want to confuse people who happen to be watching us at Visa dot Com in the Visa nap. But on the screen, we'll have Paul's group the tears that he has, and there's about twelve groups of starting pitchers he rates. He rates all of these in Major League Baseball, so it's Tier one, are the greatest pitchers in baseball? Tier two, next, Tier three, so on and so forth, based on his numbers. But the ones that he'll mention here today are the ones where he really

feels are over and undervalued. Do you want to start with the Uh, let's start with undervalued, Paul. Let's go there Okay, let's let's do that. Um and so we'll start at the top with my my high guy. I've got Frankie Mantas all the way up at twenties and he's going around thirty starter off the board. In the market on using is the NFBC, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, a very well regarded market that's put in a lot of drafts. So there's a lot of data out there,

and they're all money leagues. There's something on the line. Mock draft data is valuable, but there's there's definitely that extra bit when when it's leagues with with an entry fee there, because you know people are have skin in the game, if you will, as my as my my buddy christ List likes to say. So that's what we're going off of here when comparing to my rankings. So an eight spot difference doesn't seem to be that much, but when you get at the high end of the level,

that can be a big deal. You know that we're starting to talk about I really value Frankie Montas as uh premium picture. If it's top twenty, we're talking premium. I really believe in what he did last year. I know he had the p D suspension. P D S last I checked, don't give you a devastating splitter. They just don't do that. Yeah, not found the PV that gives you that. They can't help with velocity, But he's always had velocity, so I don't even believe that that

was part of it. Um. And the simple fact is, I don't really care about p d s. I mean, if they get caught service suspense. I'm not saying they shouldn't get in trouble if they break the rules, but I don't care about them going forward. In fact, a lot of guys kind of have a lasting effect with them. A lot of guys have returned and kind of carried on whatever effects they might have gotten. But he was excellent in those innings, including a nice six innings start

to finish the season. He did return for one last start, Montauze said to end the season with Oakland, but he couldn't play in the playoffs because of the suspension. But now he has three reliable pitches with fastball, slider, splitter, and premium velocity, a lot of swing and miss um. He's really evolved nicely over the last five years. Where he came out of the fireballer who could strike anybody

out but couldn't do anything else. Then he really committed to controlling the ball and and and cutting down his walks, but everything else kind of suffered a strikeout rate really plumbing in. He became a bit too hittable. It was really showing the difference between command and control. This past year, he had the command and control and everything was really working. The only thing that stunted the breakout was the suspension. I think this year we get a full plus inning

breakout on a Frankie Montas. Yeah, and two point six three e R a very nicely sort of confirmed if you will buy a three point zero zero field three point zero zero fielding independent three point four seven x vip uhs K rate was twenty six point one percent. Is walk rate was low five percent. Swinging strike rate also pretty nice eleven point five percent. Not elite, but

not bad. I guess there's a lot. There's a lot to like, basically absolutely, and there's a one point seven groundball to fly ball ratio for freaking Montas as well with an elite defense behind him, especially after the emergence of Marcus Simon over the last couple of years to go with Matt Chapman are giveably the best defender in baseball. Only Nolan Toronado really has a case that maybe Alton Simmons.

I don't want to, I don't want leave him out, but you're talking one of the top uh three four as far as Chapman goes, and Matt Olsen very underrated over at at first base, second base. We don't know exactly who's gonna be there yet with camp Barretto Mateo kind of playing that out. But even if they're mediocre to bad, you still have three of the four as premium guys, so they're gonna turn a lout of those groundballs into shirt fire out. I really like frankymon Toss.

Very interested to see how the betting market is going to price Montess out of a gate here when the season starts. All right, number two undervalued. You mixed up Max Freed of the Atlanta Braves. Now, this is a guy who was a big time prospect. Kind of started to fade off of that prospect, of that prospect sheen a little bit. It really wasn't working out the way

folks had planned. You know, he did some decent things, mostly out of the bullpen was his tiny sample though, and it's just like, what do we really got here? But it was only of going into last year, so no one should have fully written him off. I will admit, though, that I had kind of moved on. I was like, uh, you know, I I liked him as a prospect, I'm kind of moving on. I bought back in when he

added the slider. That's what really did it for me, because to that point he was basically a two pitch guy. He barely even had to show me change up. It was fastball, curveball, so it's like two pitch guy who's really kind of struggled to limit walks. He did show a little strikeout upside and eighteen, but last year a lot of stuff changed, and it was because of that slider being incorporated. It made the other pitches better. And I'm really excited to see what he can do this year.

The one thing he needs to do, Max Fred, is start limiting the hit He's carried a lot of high babbits, and at this point throughout his career, I'm starting to believe that he plays a role into that pictures and hitters can have effect on their own babbitt that doesn't automatically go to three hundred for everybody. So I think there's a little bit of something there where he's a

little bit too hittable at times. I'm hoping that, you know, messing with the slider of this past year, but now incorporating it in fully as a as a third weapon helps him cut into it hit rate and does bring down the babbit. He doesn't walk guys had a seven percent rate last year, amplified the strikeout rate uh over a full season he had the year before, but that was over thirty three innings, So I don't put as much stock into that. When I see a rate for

a full year auto Max Freed, that impresses me. So I think there could be a big, big step here. I'm talking something in the in the low threes with a one twenty something, with maybe even lower depending on how much he can cut into that hit rate. But two pitches now year old lefty throws pretty hard. Lots to like there with Max Freed, and I've got him, uh, I've got him right twenty five with thirty seven starter

off the board in the market right now. I love the thinking on Freed too, because what you said is very interesting. You know, the babbit was three thirty six last year, but it's not like he hasn't had the high unfortunate babbitts before, or you wonder, at some point is it in by the way, same thing with the home run the flat ball rate right on Freed twent

last year, year before. So at some point and we're not saying that point has come yet, but it is worth looking at with with Freed, where you're like, well, I think this stuff should probably come back down to earth to his benefit, but I don't know. We we shall see, you know, yeah, exactly, And it's something to keep an eye on. But it's where the growth can come from because those are some factors that are generally put into the the variability or luck bucket. I don't

like to use the luck too much on that. Sometimes I gets thrown around a little bit more often than it should, like, oh, he's been unlucky, not necessarily, we don't know that yet. Maybe it is on him and then this pick ends up becoming a little bit of a bust, or he's figuring some things out. He's still just twenty six going into this year. He only has two major league innings under his belt, so he's still

kind of learning. This year could be a big jump year for him where he cuts both the babbit and the homer fly ball and like I said, has a big breakout season. So I'm excited about Max Reed for sure, all right, montas Freed. Who's next on the Undervalued? Next up is Jake Goods, And I'll make this one pretty quick because he already broke out last year, and I think I'm I'm pretty surprised by the fact that a

lot of people don't seem to believe it. I've got them thirty four, the market has a fifty one, And I kind of have an idea of what most people are thinking because a few of my colleagues have thrown this at me at various times, discussing it with them on the podcast until I kind of, uh, you know, give them the four one one on it. Basically, the idea is that he had an amazing start and then kind of faded. D reason he had a one r

A through his first thirteen starts last year. It's absolutely brilliant, got an all star bid all of that. He had a four seventies seven the rest of the year, right, so oh wow, you know, I got a great start

and then faded. That's very misleading though, because they're grouping all those starts together when really it was only a seven start run where he had a seven r A and even that was really three awful starts, three mediocre ones, and even one good one at Cleveland in in that mix there including a nine earned run outing against the Yankees of all teams. Now, I'm not saying none of that doesn't count. It all counts, but it's a seven start can find run as opposed to his final seven

team start. If you then take the ten after the nine earned at the yank home against the Yankees, he had a two nine, so he was great fort bad for seven, great for ten. Um. They know how to use this guy too. They realized in Minnesota this guy does not need to go the third time through the order. It's just not something that he can do more often than not. He's a five and dive maybe six innings on on some of his good days. But just limit

him and you can maximize him. Less is more, as the old cliche goes, and that's definitely the case with Eco to Rizzy, and I think he's gonna put up a year very similar to what he did in nineteen. So I'm very much buying back in on this while others are expecting a big regression that I just don't see. Game logs are so important with starting pitchers because you're

so right a lot of these guys. Yeah, it's just if you look at the game log, you're like, oh, well, that doesn't you know, it just looks like he had just a couple of implosions or a few in in this case, three really big ones for to Rezy. Um. And we've seen examples of that, you and I and everybody's following baseball and fan grass for years and years, where guys are generally good, but then there's the you know, the implosion that just alters all the numbers. So again,

by the way, these are the undervalued pictures. We had it wrong on the screen Divisa dot Com. These are the undervalued guys. Frankie Motas, Max Freed, jac to Rezy give me a couple more here. So then we've got Joe Musco. This is the guy was big on last year. I'm really just not deterred by last year, kind of not really coming through. He was still pretty good. He added innings, he was still a whip asset. The r A was still a little bit high up over four.

But I still fully believe in Joe Musco and I still think there's a big breakout there. So again, I don't want to be labor this one as has gone longer on on a couple of the others. I just really love this guy. He's gonna be twenty seven. I still think he's kind of rounding into form and coming into his own. I still think there's that that mid to low three's e r A season to go with the quality whips he's already put up and their strikeout upside.

With Joe Musgrove too, He's still kind of figuring everything out. I'm excited to see a new regime in Pittsburgh too. I was never really a big fan of race Seeredge, and I think the game kind of passed him by a little bit with all the two steamer groundball stuff that he was looking at. I think more high fastballs and maximizing the arsenal that Joe Musgrove has could yield a big strikeout total too. All right, well, must Grove

in there? Should we call montas freed ODORESI and must Grove the main events and then the rest of your honorable mentions. Uh yeah, well I do want to I do want to hype Aaron Savali real, yea, let's do him. Um. They they've been they've been going off with pictures like they they've become kind of a picture factory. And what I've been saying my tagline for him is that I don't think he's quite Shane Bieber, but he's definitely better

than like the Adam put Coo Josh Tomlin. So he's like, you know, he's a couple of cuts above those type of guys that they've been developing, but maybe not quite to the Beaver level yet. He's got a full arsenal um. He missed a lot of bats in the minors too. We didn't quite see that at the major legally level last year, but I really like what he's able to do. Home run suppression has been a big part of his

game as well. So if if I'm ranking it, montas freed on the reason are definitely the main event Savali right there, must Grove is a returner, and then two quick lottery tickets and I'm not even gonna give much on because I don't love them. I just like them more than the market. Jeff some Marja and Homewer Bailey. I got him at seventy and seventy one. The market haste, I think that's just biased toward trust the old vets,

and they're not even that old. But it's it's just that that that fantasy has always been agist, and guys that are kind of boring le solid. The market just hours on them. They want to take the shiny new toys, and to a degree, I get that, but you can't have only shiny new toys at the back end of your rotation. You have to get some stabilizers. I think Bailey is gonna be good in Minnesota. Uh, he was really good with Oakland after his first couple of starts,

and then so Marja returned pretty nicely last year. At the very least, you can use them in against all all of his home starts because of San Francisco's ballpark. So I like those two has lottery tickets late. Yeah, home Aer Bailey good with the A's, so Marja a bit more of an evil kinevil one from you, But yeah, I understand the thinking for sure. So the main events there Montas Freed, Odor Reesi, uh, Savali and Musgrove right after that, and then the long shots, so Marja and

Bailey on the underrated starting pitchers. And again from a betting standpoint, Uh, this will be fascinating to see how those guys are priced. Um, because someone like Montas Freed might be a different story. I think he'll be priced accordingly. But someone like Montas and Odo Recy and really all the other names you gave, I think you probably get favorable prices on those in the betting markets. From a day to day standpoint, at least early in the season.

We'll come back with Paulie Will Do the Overvalued Paul Sport, who can be followed on Twitter at Sporer And of course the podcast is the Sleeper and the Bust podcast, best deep dive into baseball you could ever hope to listen to. We'll come Back, We'll Do Overvalued with Paul Nicks on a numbers game at Visa in the Sports Betting Network. Keep it right here for more of a numbers Staying with Pie, Alexander, don't forget to sign up for a Visa subscription designed to make sure you're ready

for basketball tournament action. Do you do pools or any kind of brackets, any sort of you know. Uh, I will call him the general office pools for n C Double as absolutely. I I stream on Twitch, Twitch dot tv s last four um and we are we'll be having We'll be having a March Madness for sure. And one of my buddies from when I worked at del always runs great pools for stuff, whether it's Super Bowls, squares or March Madness pools, and I get in on

that as well. In this particular case, these days, I know literally nothing about the n C Double A so and I still am going to do a bracket because it's that fun. I mean, I have general ideas and I know where to go study and cram a little bit. I'm always gonna put a twelve over a five on there because there's usually gonna be one that wins. So absolutely there, as much as I love baseball, there's still a few things that match or top the first weekend

of the tournament. It's so true, by the way, you were two things before they were cool. You were Corey Klueber before Corey Kluber was cool, and you were Twitch before Twitch was cool as well. Like you're you're ahead of the curve on so much. All right, let's race through these. These are the overvalued and I am I am interested in this first one primarily, what's the first one?

Jack Flaherty. Okay, So now I just recently released those tops pictures that I pointed you to yesterday on February twenty, very fresh rankings. He moved up. I actually had a decent bit lower, but some attrition and some further offseason study, I moved him up a little bit. I was I think I was underrating Hisen a little bit, pretending that it was just a half season that people were going

off of from last year and boosting him up. That said, I do still think there's some helium from that half season, which is it was great, but it's it's not super meaningful to me in that it's unsustainable. And I would say that if it was Jack Flaherty, if it was my favorite picture ever justin Verlander, if it was Max Scherzer a point ninety one, e R a in point seventy two, WHI, it's just it's the best you can pitch. Ever,

So it doesn't mean a lot to me. Now I don't think he's a four sixty four e r A the way he was in the first half, But I I just I want to be careful to not overrate that, and I think he is being overrated a bit. I have him twelve, the market has him six, So that's a big jump for me, and I'm just pulling back a little bit. I think he's more of his three thirty four r A one eleven, which is still very good,

with a boatload of stry kout. I don't quite see six right now, and so I'm just not paying full freight on Jack Flaherty. Yeah to forty two babb eight three brand rate. You know, you don't usually sustain both of those good fortune things as well, so yeah, throw those in the mix as well. All right, it was number two overvalue. This one was easiest. Trevor Bauer. I knew the market would still be very high on right handed Robbie Ray with more innings. To be fair, he's

he's he's a higher volume right handed Robbie Ray. But go look at their careers and tell me where the lie is, because it's just not there. They both have one great season or the sub three e r A that was awesome. They get a boatload of strikeouts. They walk the world um and and they're madly infuriating, I imagine in both handicapping and fantasy. And so until I see something else to really buy in on Bauer four, I'm not paying the twenty four starter. I'm not giving

him a top twenty five average draft position. I've got him thirty one. I moved him up a little bit again due to some attrition and the fact that the strikeouts are still valuable. But I'm just not I'm just not a big fan of what he does. And a lot of my colleagues even have him higher, pushing him up near near the market, and so again, I just it's been one good season, and it was a great season, and he has a lot of talent, but he over tinkers, and he did exactly what I worried about last year,

which was tinker himself out of success. It's so Trueen was just as stellar as could be to two point two one r a two point four four fielding independent, and then he tinkers. He tinkered when he was like a young kid in Arizona, like wouldn't take coaching. He was just let me tinker this my way, don't anybody tell me anything. Um, I like that pick. Actually, that's

way overdrafted things, seems to me. Alright, number three, you're going back to Oakland, I think, yes, Sean Mania And this is one of those where it's like, I'm cautious. I am sixty one versus fifty three in the market. I like him, but I think again, the markup has come off of a tiny sample that I don't find to be very sustainable at all. Um, he had twenty nine and two thirds last year. He spiked the strikeout rate big time without his swinging strike rate really going up.

In concert with that, he had an insane oneaban and then even more insane strand rate obviously is not going to last. So um. You know, I'm not saying that the market is is believing that he's gonna throw a one r A or else he'd be like the fifth pitcher off the board. But I do think he's been a little bit overrated there. He's not a big strikeout guy. Health has been a concern throughout his entire career, including

last year. That's why only pitchy and two thirds. So I'm just playing it a bit more cautiously than the draft market right now. And as much as I do like Mania as a picture, I got to back off on him a bit, all right, So flaity Bauer in Mania and you're right there. I mean the two full seasons of Maniah were you know, fours ree right, like average pitcher kind of thing. Um, So I can get with that one. So flirty Bauer and Mania topping the overvalued.

I gotta sneak in one break here, Paul, if you would hang out just for one more and we'll get the other three overvalue from you, because I know you have a bit of a I don't call them longer shots, but let's put it this way, they're not in the top group of overvalued. Gotta give a few more names. We'll come back. We'll get that from PAULI next fantasy betting starting pitchers with Paul Sport right here on a numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network. Welcome back

to a numbers game with you, Alexander again. Will be so fascinating to see how the starting pitchers, both are the good and the bad, are priced in the betting market, and see if we can't exploit that early in the season. Of course, not everything manifests Game one, but we'll be interesting to see, all right. So back with Paul Spore. We have Jack Flaherty, Trevor Bauer, Seawan Mania as three on the overvalued list based on their average draft position.

How Paul assess them? Give us three more that are a little more on the outside. By the way, I think the Bauer and Clarity could be really playing up Um in the betting market as well. So those those are the ones I'd be really eyeing in the betting market. Three others to Nelson Lament a guy that I want to like. I just can't get where my or my

colleagues and the market is right now. I've got him fifty one, the market has met thirty six, and they're falling in love with that strikeout right which is which is legit? The strikeouts are legit. But he's a two pitch guy who struggles greatly against lefties. Uh walks. The yard has a home run issue. I'm just not understanding where we're going here with the top thirty six starting pitcher pick here. I'm not even his worried about the fact that they only threw seventy three innings last year.

Um and has only has not thrown more than a hundred and fourteen as a major league I can I can see a world where he throws a hundred and seventy five to a hundred Navy this year as seven year old. But I just don't think it's gonna be with anything better than like a four E R A in a one wi a k A. What he's done in his career to this point, thus point or thus far, I should say, uh so, I'm just not in where

everybody else is. Fifty one for me, thirty six for the Market, with the Nelson lament of the Padres, and then two deeper guys that I actually like these guys. But I was surprised to find that I'm way off on the market. Adrian Houser, somebody that I just got done touting on my podcast as I love this guy, quote unquote, I said, I guess I don't if I'm this far off, though I have him eight three and

the Market has sixty five. And Brian Kenny when he does their top ten lists, he always calls out the himself and and the co host. Don't say you love a guy if you have them you know, off your list or or ninth on your list, you know you have to be consistent, so I can't really say I love Adrian Houser unless I move him up right now. But I do like him. I'm intrigued by what he did last year. I think he could do more this year. But I'm just way off compared to the market and

another guy. I don't love him quite as much as Houses, but I'm intrigued by the overall town is Josh James. I've got a maybe five, The market has the sixty eight. There's a spot for him in Houston, for sure, They've they've got openings. He's got the raw talent emphasis on raw though. That's why I'm not necessarily going to change this one as much as I'm gonna be open to changing the Houser one, because he is still very raw, and I'm worried that he's gonna walk the yard constantly.

I still worry that he is a reliever in starters clothing this year. But um, I would have considered myself somebody who likes him, But then to find out that I'm almost twenty spots off surprised me for sure. Yeah, Lament just getting back to Nelson Lament thirty three point six percent k rate, but as you said, he walks the yard nine point six percent walk rate last year.

And as far as Josh James, yes, as a reliever primarily one game started, but as a reliever, I mean wow, thirty seven point six percent k rate, thirteen point two percent walk rate. And uh so he is he is slated to start this year for the Astros right now. Yes, He've got under Green, Ky mccallers and then or Keti Jose r Keaty and Josh James um as the four five, especially with Brad Peacock getting hurt. Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts. But anyway, that's how he slated to

start here early in the season. All right, So those are the names. And on the again, on the downside here Flaherty, Bauermania lamtte Houser and James Paul always appreciated man, Thank you so much at sporer s p O r e Er on Twitter of course everything written at fan Graphs and the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. How often do you do that? Now we're gonna be doing that three times a week. We might actually have a couple of four packs um in the next couple of weeks.

Since it is Draft season right now, and my co host, Justin Mason's off of his day job, so we're gonna have some more time. In fact, we're gonna be recording shortly after you and I hang up here today. Very nice, Paul, I always appreciate it. Thank you so much, man Gil, thank you for having me on. Talk to you in the future, Spore. We will have him on during the baseball season, and uh we have. We've done a lot

of baseball here before this. It starts. Do you like which of those names on the Undervalued to the Overvalued resonated with you the most? There, Jeff, it feels like everybody loves Frankie Monta. Everybody on this show has come. Everybody loves Frankie Mantas and that scares me, of course, because we know how the unanimous fun usually goes. That's the first And again, it's not like Paul really slighted

Jack Flaherty. He just said he's not gonna be a top five pitcher in baseball and it's still gonna be a top fifteen, which is still really darn good. But we saw this last year with Flaherty were at least in the betting markets, he got really really overvalued on that hot streak in the in the second half of the season. Grantedy one, I believe the Cardinals won thirteen out of his last fifteen, but it was it was

that was one that stood out as well. Yeah, and again that's the first thing I said was, don't take this to mean when he says overvalue that he thinks they suck. Just overvalued based on their average draft position and fantasy But again, for us, better is to be very interesting to see Flaherty again with the very fortunate babit uh and uh home run the flatball. Right, see where that goes with him this year we'll come back.

Let's talk a little baseball. He is from fan grass, ladies and gentlemen, and wherever baseball is sold, it's PAULI Spoor. Good morning, Paul, Morning Gale. How's he going. I'm doing well, Paul. Did you see the fight at all? Do you have any interest in boxing at all? I did? And I actually I actually met Wilder last year. Really nice guy. Yeah, yeah, MLB the show event, and he smelled really good. I'm just gonna say it, he smelled really good. What was it.

I'm just telling like obvious, Yeah, yeah, it was. It was just it was just a pervasive cologne. He felled really good. His ear drum was intact. Yes, well that I see. That was the thing he had that working for him. You know, it was interesting. I don't know if you ever watched a boxing match with with girls who don't necessarily watch boxing on a full time basis.

Not to not to generalize, but at least in my case, fashion stylist ever song she was watching alongside with me, and she points out things, not the cologne, but she points out things that perhaps a guy watching wouldn't for all. You know, So Fury is sort of knock need right, he's the you know this massive by the way, I stood next to Fury at the wind It's just a massive human being. But he's sort of knocked. His legs look awkward, wilder for his Adona's upper body, like his

legs are toothpicks. These guys ever do legwork. It is the funniest thing to look at. But I didn't know I used a solid cologny on top of that. Yeah, they just skipped leg data too busy shopping for good cologne. That's that's what they're doing. All right, Let's talk Baseball, Paul, you were here last week. We went through a whole bunch of stuff m VPS. We went through I think the most interesting prop markets the wild cards that are available to Westgate. Let's talk rookies of the year. I

don't believe these have been out for a long time. Um, someone will correct me if I'm wrong about that. But let's start in the American League and uh, well, actually Casey Mize at four to one, I thought he was the short shot. But I'm saying that that's not the case. Now how about that? Um, what do you think you're Casey mind? Not the reason I bring up Casey Miys because I bet Casey mis Jason Weingartner, Buddy, I was like, let's all bet Casey Miys two hundred to one last

year when he came out. Casey might never ended up getting called up by your Detroit Tigers. But as you look at this market, any names you're no one has locked in as you are to these things. Any names that leap off the page americanly, well, I gotta be honest, I'm really surprised that, uh Louise Robert isn't the short shot. That one really blows my mind, because he's got that deal. He's got that contract that is going to put him on the opening day roster from day one, I mean,

barring something crazy. So I would think that he would be the obvious guy there. So I probably wouldn't bet him because of that, just because if I'm going to do one of these, I'm gonna go a little bit longer on the odds just to try to spike something. But yeah, both co Peck at plus three hundred and mis at plus four hundred are high than Robert at plus seven. So there, Actually it is a little bit of equity with uh. With Blue Bob as they call him,

which is a great nickname for Luis Robert. You'd be looking at go ahead and Bob at seven to one for those who aren't watching at Visa Live or the Visa dot Com and the Visa app seven to one on lou Bob for the Chicago White Sox. What else are you looking at? Are you looking at both both of the A's pictures, Hey Secilzardo at ten to one and A J. Puck and Board one. I really really like Puck a lot, and the fact that he's that much further up than Loizardo. Um, I would probably take

the shot on him just because his odds. Puck's odds are so much better. Uh, you know, neither Listen, they came out and said neither is going to have a fixed innings limit. That doesn't mean that they're going two hundred innings. That just means that they're they that the A's are smartly not anchoring themselves to number that they can then have no flexibility from. I think this is a wise thing to do when you've got these young guys. It doesn't make sense to throw out a number because

then that's the only focus all years. You know, a hundred and twenty innings, and then if you do want to go above it, uh, you're at risk of being blamed for something if they get hurt. You know, stay you anchor at one twenty, but they you want to send them one forty because they can handle it, they're good. But then they get hurt, it's like, well, you shouldn't go in twenty innings over this number that you came

up with, which is just random anyway. So I like that they're coming out and they're not necessarily um anchoring themselves to a number with the innings limit, so I would go I would go with Puck as an interesting long shot there, and then uh it was I still like Lazarto two, but I would go with Puck with with his odds being that much better, and then a sneaky one who's odds I wish were a little bit better because of the team that he's on is Nate Pearson.

I really like Nate Pearson of the Blue Jays. He's eight team, the one I'm just intrigued by that Blue Jay's team, really intrigued by that offense. Of course, that young offense that they've got going, but they put some interesting pitching together. I don't think Pierson will be up

before May, maybe even June, but he's really interesting. I saw him Theirs on a follow you a couple of years ago, throwing a legit one oh three with a devastating slider, so he could be he could be pretty good, and I could see him making some noise for that too. He's at eighteen to one Nate Pierson. But yeah, I think Puck would be my go to at at forty one. All right, Puck Oakland Athletics. That's Puk for those who don't know. You spelled Puck forty one for the A's

and Pierson eighteen to one for the JS. On that list, he's Lazardo also with the A's ten to one, lu Bob Louis for Robert seven to one with the White Sox. Casey Mize not mentioned their four to one, but Michaelkopick from the White Sox three to one is the short shot. So Puck at forty one the sexiest of Then, by the way, we don't we don't necessarily care in this market if they come up in May. That might even be a sneaky way of playing it. You're Don Alvarez

being a example of such a thing. Let's go to the nationally talking to Paul Sport. You can follow him on Twitter at s p O R E er. These available at the Westgate. Nice job from them putting these up. National League Rookie of the Year, same sort of exercise sent those two. You uh, in advance where you're going this way? Gavin looks no surprise here the short shot at four to one. Yeah, the obvious shorty there at four to one with with good reason, good player, and

I do like him. But again, if I'm ever getting into into something like this with the rookie of the year. I'm gonna go a little bit longer, try to hit something a little bit bigger. Um. I like Mitch Keller at twelve to one. He's interesting. You know if you go look at his surface numbers last year and be like, this guy was terrible. What are you talking about, Paul? But you gotta dig a little deeper. You look at his his core skills from forty innings. He had a

seven thirteen r A but a three nineteen five. Those two numbers disagree big time about how he performed. It was this crazy thing. First off, forty innings is always just the tiny sample that you would never want to give too much credence to one way or the other. But he had this thing Keller did where he had five starts of five plus earned runs and then the rest of his starts were two or fewer. So he was either great or terrible, really nothing in between. It was.

It was really kind of bizarre. But I like I like Keller. I think he's pretty good. He's there with Pittsburgh. They're not a great ball club, but they should. They should turn him loose this year and give us some good innings twelve. The one isn't too bad. I like Mitch Keller there um. As far as the longer shots, a lot of them don't really stand out. Of course, you mentioned, you know, Jordan Alvarez. That's how Rookie of

the Year works. Though, You've got to kind of put your mind on some things that that don't necessarily jump out right away, and that's how you're gonna hit big because Alvrez was not the guy who was supposed to

come up. It was Cayle Tucker, you know, and he never even made it up until like September, despite dominating at Triple A. Jeff and Paul will throw this out of the audience as well from wards, So the decade past, who's the person that scored the most points in the NBA, who's the person that threw the most touchdown passes in the NFL, And who's the person who hit the most home runs in Major League Baseball the decade nineteen Jeff Any thoughts on the on the most points in the NBA. Yes,

but I'll hold them for now. I'll hold all my answers the next cause we're gonna we're gonna get to the MLB Homer's momentarily, which, by the way of the three is probably the hardest one to answer, And it's the only one I got right. It's the only one you got right, yes, which is just so that you know by the fact that you're saying that that's the only one you got right. That means my first first thought on the NBA is probably incorrect. That just means

that I didn't get the obvious ones in basketball. Maybe they're not so obvious in basketball and football, but I was able to get the obscure one in baseball. Anyway, let's do these props because we'll get to the home run one at the end. We bring back Paul Sport from fan Graphs, so I'm sure has a guests on these two. But let's talk about where do we start. We do wins in UH wins in Major League Baseball pitching this year, so we did last week with PAULI.

We did um who gets Cy Young's It's a little different calculus to come up with the most wins in Major League Baseball, but Garrett Cole of the New York Yankees, Oh, say that sense a few times. Seven to one is the short shot. Everybody else is in double digits, with Walker Bueller of the Dodgers and Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals being the next shortest at fourteen to one. Who you got here, PAULI do we lose pauls boor? Hell, hey there we go? Got your back? Who you got here? Paul?

Most pitching wins? Yeah, I lost your for a second there. Uh yeah, pitching wins of court was really difficult to assassin. So you knew, you knew that Cole and and and Berlander and guys like that would be up again. I'm really gonna want to jump out and try to do something a little bit different if I'm gonna go with this one, and I'm not even gonna go with the two times cy Young, but I'm gonna go with his teammate,

you know, a Synderguard at eight one. And I know the Mets they're not much for supporting their guys, as as mentioned with the gram, but um, I love Syndergard. I you know, I kind of have a weakness for him. He's really really good, and uh, I think he's gonna have some improvements this year. I think that's the quality team that they've got. In fact, a lot of the projection systems like them, although I will say the projection systems can accurately put in that little bit of Mets factor,

you know, how the Mets. They say the Mets are gonna met It's hard to that's hard to bake into a system where they you know, kind of generally shoot themselves in the feet and things like that. But there is a lot of talent in New York with the Mets. So I'm gonna go with with synder Guard there for one of them, and then um another one. I like, you know, I wish his odds were a little bit longer because I am thinking that Corey Kluber could have a real big bounce back here in Texas. He's thirty

to one. That still pretty good. But I'm surprised that that someone like Syndergard is so much longer than somebody like Klueber. I guess this market is acknowledging that, hey, Klueber is you know, a two time cy young He's coming off of a bad season, but he's still going to be a good pitcher. I think that Texas team could support him pretty well, at least offensively. Had more, i'd be worried. And if I was going to make a bet like this, you want to have both the

offense and the bullpen piece locked in. In fact, I might want the bullpen piece even more locked in. If I'm gonna make a wins bet, then the offense, just because there's nothing worse than than turning it over to the bullpen and watched them blow a couple of wins. But Klueber is thirty two one, you know, eighteen eighteen and twenty wins. The three years before this past season where he only went two and three in seven starts, had a disastrous season, got hurt, got hit by the

batted ball that broke his arm. Then I did get a strangel while he was returning and never came back. That Texas team has started to cultivate some interesting pitching. I wonder if we could, if I could make this bet and then ask that the Rangers please use Jeff Madness with Corey Kluber the framing god, and that way I can get some extra strikes and make sure that I'm getting the best coober that I can get there. But yeah, I'll go Kluber and uh Kuber and thor

As some some of the longer shot. All right, Paul, spoorer who was Corey Kluber before Corey Kluber was cool. He called it well in advance, back in the day Kluber thirty two. One also have to consider ballparks, of course, but yes, bullpens huge consideration in the most pitching wins market, and thor Noah synder Guard at eighty to one, perhaps the uh the number one pick their value wise for Pauli, speaking of Garrett Cole, who was seven to one here

and was the short shot in that category. The west Gate did put up a few Garrett Cole specific props, and I was curious if you had any thoughts on these total strikeouts total wins to throw a no hitter strikeouts The over under was two eighty and a half two eighty and a half, with the underjuiced over over plus one ten over two eighty and a half. For Pauli there total wins seventeen and a half. Um, I'd

probably go, uh, yeah, it's really tough. I'd probably go under, but I'd be so I wouldn't put in anything on that. I'd have a hard that's a really strong number. They're seventeen feels about right, all right? Any thoughts on either of these or any of these three to throw a no hitters twenty to one, to have a fifteen plus strikeout game minus one thirty five, to have a twenty plus strikeout game, They're only given you twenty to one.

That's come on. But the fifteen plus strikeout Yeah, the fifteen plus strikeout game minus one thirty five, that's interesting. I might take that, Yeah, would yeah, yeah, okay. Those are courtesy of fan duel, by the way, the Garrett cole One's um okay, and the Yankee specifically, since we'll just riff off this hundred seventeen wins, which obviously would be the the benchmark of modern baseball history. Uh, Yankees over under one hundred and seventeen wins, Yes, plus nine hundred,

the no minus sixteen hundred. You know, I think they got to give you better than nine to one to take that. I would agree. I would agree good ball club, for sure. I'd be more inclined to put the money on the Dodgers. You know what, what what can I get as far as the dog if I was going to do something like that, But there's no way you're gonna get me at nine to one on something, so lofty like that, no chance. So I mean, I would take to know if I'm going to do it with

the Yankees, but again I'm just not. I'm just not putting any units on something like that. And that's great advice because because that Yankees my seventeen plus wins prop the yes being nine to one, and that Garrett Cole no hitter with it only being twenty to one, that's just not the bang for your buck that you're looking for on these bets. Not good bets, all right. So then we get to harken back to my trivia question. PAULI.

We're talking to Paul Sport for fag Graphs. That sporer on Twitter s p O r e Er most regular season and home runs. We'll get to the trivia question after this. But Mike Trout and Pete Alonso, last year's home run king, both at ten to one. Then it's Stanton and Gallow. Of course Gallow contractually obligated to be a short shot in this market. They're at twelve to one.

This is courtesy of Fantel Aaron Judge thirteen to one, and Cody Bellinger and Nolan Eronado Bellinger who let us down those of us with tickets last year on this so badly they're at sixteen to one. Um, who do you like? Who's off the board? Alvarez by the way, twenty five to one. My eyes drift to him on Alvres That is pretty interesting. Yeah, again, just to reiterate for those that maybe didn't give me something like this, I'm rarely gonna go with the favorites. I acknowledge that

they're there for a reason. Um, and and these are you know, obvious favorites. But I'm gonna go a little bit further off the board on something like that. I'm probably gonna look at you said that Alvarez is your guy that you're looking at Maddio Matt Olson one. Um, love Matt Olson. I think he's an excellent hitter, and he's really started to, uh, you know, from day one,

he's really shown himself to be quite good. Remember last year he had the injury in Japan with the hammate bone, and we've always had this idea that like, oh, well, handmate surgery, there goes your power for the year. Yet it was it was a little bit uncertain how legit that was. That was just kind of an assumed thing. He comes back and pops thirty six homers in a hundred and twenty seven games, And then it sparked some people to do some more research and realize it's really

more of a coin toss. How much that handmate surgery if you're in season, power if you come back from it. So he he didn't show any sort of ill ill uh, you know, trouble there with Matt Olson hitting thirty six. So if he can at thirty six and one seven, he can lead the league. He cant plus homers. Give me Matt Olson at one there, That's that's my guy, for sure. I'll give him to one. That's what he

even says right there, to one on Matt Olson even better. Sorry, I was looking at the Yeah, I was looking at the app. So I guess they didn't update it because maybe one is updated. Maybe I didn't look at if you're looking at it right now, one would be the number. Then maybe these are a little bit outdated here on

the screen. So, by the way, and let me just say this on regular season home runs on on the n L m v P, which we discussed last last week, the best player we would watch baseball and sports books

every night. Obviously last week here in Vegas. Ronald Lacuna Jr. Was the best player more nights than anybody in the league last year, And I just wonder if I shouldn't take flyers on him and all kinds of categories because that's the one guy I don't think we've given quite enough juice too, because he that's a guy who could just add a you know, very easily pop off on all of these categories. So maybe he's an m v

P shot for me on the one. Yeah, the Palmer's I mean, you know, he can get anything going with like a forty forty maybe taking something like that and depending depending what kind of number they gave you on that. But yeah, Ronald Coonia Jr. Is so good it's unbelievable. He's gonna be just twenty two next year. I don't blame you anything that you can get down at least

have a little something tied to his excellence. You know, an MVP bet is perfectly tied to excellence, even more so than a home run bet, because he's got such a diverse skill set that I might be more inclined to take an MVP bet there, all right, real quick bit in wrapping up, because We started with a trivia question the decade. That was Jeff and Paul uh basketball, who scored the most points? Jeff, guess my first guest. Guest was little bron Ja. That was my first guest too.

That is incorrect. That's why once you said it that it was wrong. Paully, what would have been your guest? Your guest rather, I mean it would have been le Brons, So then that's wrong. I mean there's Derek playing of the of the decade to be the guy. James Harden is the answer, James Harden, most part Okay Football, most touchdown passes, Jeff, your guest would be My guess was I guess was going to be Brady. But I have a feeling that's wrong to incorrect. Paul. Your guest Rodgers

Drew Brees is your answer. So all three of us got those wrong. This one somehow I got right. Most home runs. This is where I was going with this, most home runs Jeff, no chads for me. Paul, I'm torn between two guys. I'm torn between Nelson crept and Edwin and Canarcione, Dan, Paul, those were those were exactly the two guys that I whiltled it down to two. That is why I love you and the answer is Nelson Cruz. Yes, well done, thirty five to one by the way this year to win the home run crowd.

Thank you, PAULI appreciate it as always. Thanks Gil, take care of you too. Paul's four bargraps Nelson cru