Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Wild Card Round 2020

last few weeks. Yeah, we did. Happy New Year to you. Happy New Year, Todd. You good. Yes, life is beautiful. It's sunny out again. It's fantastic. I have a water here and I can take a shower. Oh that's excellent. And our rotating guest on the show is not just a rotating guest for the playoffs. We only bring in the all stars. It's his second appearance of the year.

Ladies and Gentlemen from esp In two's Daily Wager. And also, may I just say the host of Joe Lowan Dibbs in the Morning ninety five point seven The Game in San Francisco, Joe Fort and Ball Mega Pod staple, what's happening? I'm not a lot killed. It's great to be here. Happy New Year. I'm still trying to figure out if you're hustling me or not. I get this text mess New Year's Eve, Hey would love to have you on the Mega Pod. I'm thinking to myself, all right, this

guy is clearly desperate. Everyone's turned him down, and he's hit me up during dinner on New Year's Eve. But then I get the text that says, no, no, only the all stars for the playoff podcast. So now you're tickling my you know what a little bit. I'm thinking to myself, is he being true? Is he playing with me? But either way, it's always a pleasure to be here. Thank you for the in fight. I always welcome the conversation. You are welcome, sir, and it is actually the latter.

You're the first person I called. You are the first person I called. In fact, in my head, I was like, I'm doing fort and Ball wild Card and then I'm gonna have Lombardi for the divisional round. That was exactly the what was in my head. Then you're just lazy waiting. Then you're just lazy waiting that long the book yet, Yeah, that's that is more accurate that you know, that's what happens you. You probably know this too, right, because you

do like multiple things. And I don't know if you're the one booking on any of those platforms, but there's something that always gets where you're like, at the last minute, you're like, oh damn, I gotta do that. I forgot. Oh yeah, dude. When you're in this type of business, when you're when you're when you're lucky enough to be working on different platforms, you have your day to day routine.

You gotta you gotta be good with your time management and your organization, and even then there's always the one little thing you forgot to do it. It's ever major, but it's just like shoot, Holidays coming up. I totally see where you're coming from. And it's very much an honor to get to lead off before Lombardi next week. You know, me and him go way back. Oh yeah, I know you do, way back in the day. Lombardi is the best. All right, gentlemen, let's do it. Wild

Card weekend. There's four games. It's very straightforward. Let's start with them in chronological order. Very strange this year where we have the two A f C games on one day, and the two NFC games on the other that doesn't usually happen, but based on time zones, that's how it shakes out. And so we start with the a f C on Saturday. These are the games that are staggered later. They start later in the day. First game four thirty five pm Eastern, kick off one thirty five pm Pacific.

It's the five four game in the a f C between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Texans are favored now by two and a half. It was three when it first came out. It's off the key number of three. It's two and a half total at forty four. Buffalo already had this position clinched, so they didn't have anything to play for last week. Houston didn't have anything to play for either. Uh so they're coming off really what amounts to a de facto by in both cases

of all the four games. For me, this is the one that I would have guessed three when it came out three. We had we had a guessing lines this week. It's not the one that I love against. The spread is the most bettable. But I know we have some different opinions here. I know Todd, you like this game a lot. Let's start with our guest, Joe, what do you think about this game? Buffalo at Houston. Two plays on this game earlier in the week, um, I took the Bills plus three and I took the overre at

forty two and a half. Now, I didn't get the best of it on the over. I think forty one and a half was out there, but both have moved in the right directions for me since that happened. The one I like more is the over in this matchup. As soon as I saw that number at forty one and a half, I just started thinking, to myself, this feels this feels really low given the matchup, and I understand that the first thought would be to look at the Bills and to say, well, you know, they don't

score a lot of points, because they don't. They scored twenty one points a game at home, or they scored twenty one points a game on the road. They scored seventeen points per game at home. They're not exactly a quick strike offense. Josh Allen is the most consistent of quarterbacks. So you're gonna look at that and you're gonna realize Buffalo has got one of the better defenses in the league. And you're gonna think to yourself when it's all said and done, this is probably gonna be a grind amount

of fair. But I think the one disadvantage for Buffalo a quick strike offense, It's not gonna hurt them as much here. I think they're gonna be able to move the ball. Houston defense is absolutely dreadful, absolutely dreadful this season. They are dead last in the NFL and red zone defense, dead last, and opponent yards for play thirty one an opponent third down conversions and total defense. And if you keep in mind, like I said earlier, the Builds are

scoring more points on the road than they are at home. Now, I don't think that matters too much here, but they're not the type of team that goes on the road and completely struggles to move to football. Now, you look at Buffalo defense this year and you say to yourself, well, this is a great unit. If the offense is running slow and they're controlling tempo and you let the defense go out there and do their thing, this should be

an under And I can understand that. But in their sixteen games this year, eleven of them came against teams that ranked twenty one or worse in yards for play. They didn't exactly play the murderers row of NFL offense. They got a lot of good matchups that put the defense in a position to make a lot of key plays. And that's about to downgrade the defense. It's just to say, look at the competition, look at the people they played

this year. If we move away from the eleven games in which they played teams that ranked twenty one or worst in yards for play, that leaves us with five games. One of them was the Baltimore game, which they lost, although they played very well in that game. One of them was the Cleveland game, which they lost, and one of them was the Tennessee game, which they won, but that was with Marcus Mariotti at quarterback rather than Ryan Tannehill.

Point being, Houston ranks eleventh in the NFL and yards perform right, Excuse me when I've got a feeling they're gonna have a little bit more success. They've got playoff history, they they're hosting this game, so the crowd noises in their favor. I think they're gonna have a little bit more success against Buffalo's defense, and I think Buffalo's offense is gonna be able to find success against Houston defense, which is why my favorite play on this game is

the over. Now it's up to forty four, I don't like it as much right now, but I still think this game is gonna feature more scoring than anyone's anticipating early on. Alright, so I a strong play of the over from the always thorough Joe Ford and bought, Joe, whatever you're doing it, uh daily wager you're doing it right? That was very thorough. I like that it's it's avocado toast. I started my days with avocado toast. Of course, you do. You live in San Francisco, for God's six, um, not

to take a shot at San France ago. I lived there for twenty one years. I love the people. But you know what I mean. We're not at the teaser section of this show yet, but Buffalo is just screaming teaser to me. Mike your thoughts here on the first of the four wild Card round playoff games. I'm I'm with Todd in that I have a hard time, or maybe with you, Gil and that I have a hard time, um understanding this Houston Texan team. I just don't know

what team is going to show up on Saturday. Now, from a history standpoint, we've seen them struggle in this early Saturday wild Card game through the years. But I can't trust this team and I'd like to back Buffalo in this spot, but I don't know what Houston team is going to show up, So for me, this game has to be a hard pre flop pass and look for an in game opportunity. To Joe's point, Houston has allowed twenty eight touchdown passes in their last twelve games.

Their defense is just not good anyway. Slice that they will be getting J. J. Watt back for this game though, needs to be noted Todd, you do have a lot of conviction in this game, right. Well, I don't know if I want to say go with the word a lot, but I definitely like it. I like Buffalo, and uh here's the reason why I like Buffalo. Uh. If you look at the Houston Texans over the last seven well,

first of all, I don't like their coach. Let let it be said that Bill O'Brien is one of those John Foxian type of coaches that can get you to nine and seven, but is not anything spectacular. And when he gets in there against much better coaches. He struggles. That being said, their last seven games at Baltimore they lost forty one to seven. Indianapolis they won twenty to seventeen when Minitary kicked it right into the line, it was blocked and ran back for a touchdown. Game they

should have lost. They beat New England, but you know everyone beats New England nowadays, right, even even the Dolphins can. They got crushed against Denver. Then they beat Tennessee on the road. Okay, we'll give him a little credit for that. Then at Tampa Bay they needed Cameron break to drop a fourth and three pass to win that game. Then they got killed by Tennessee in a game Okay that didn't matter. So to me, I haven't seen anything in the last half of the season out of the Texans

that looks very promising. I think they're going the wrong way. They're not Peeking and Buffalo, on the other hand, I like what they've done. I think that New England game was life and death all for New England to win. They had to pull out every stop, every trick in the book that Belichick was running, trick play after trick play to barely win that game, and had Rex Burkehard not broken fourteen tackles at the one yard line, it would have been a three point game and it could

have gone anyway either way. They went into Pittsburgh and one Now, granted Pittsburgh has no quarterback, agreed, but still, I just like the Buffalo coach better. I like the Buffalo defense is stout, as Joe forton Ball has has showed us with the statistics. Why can't Buffalo keep this tight and either lose seventeen sixteen or win seventeen sixteen. Well, see, I'll go one step further, and I know I'm getting

ahead to our final two questions of the show. You will just apply to the four wild card games, but like, this is the one game of the four, and this is even more so than Seattle Philadelphi because I think most people, maybe maybe a lot of people will would gravitate towards that game for this. But of all the games where I could see such different, like completely different outcomes, and I would totally believe it beforehand. It's the Buffalo

Houston game. If you told me right now Houston wins this game by double digits, I wouldn't be that shocked. Home playoff game at all because Buffalo is they do struggle on offense. But if you told me the opposite as well, I'd be like, oh yeah, I could see that totally happening as well. And I'm not sure any of the other three games do I fathom those? Why those those big gap it outcomes like that, the large variance and outcomes. So this game for me, I'm with you, Mike.

For pre flop purposes, I don't love it against the spread. I will put Buffalo in teasers, but I just I don't trust Houston. I don't trust Josh Allen to hit a pass when he needs to. I mean, they win that game against New England, buff Low does a couple of weeks ago if Josh Allen just hits a couple open receivers. So it's just it's a frustrating game. I'm glad it's the first of the bunch, so that we get this one out of the way, which brings us to the game that I think I have the most

conviction on against the spread pre flop. And here's what happens when you have a whole week to bat this around your head. I love Tennessee. Uh, they're getting five now, which is where I got it earlier in the week. Tennessee at New England. I don't think New England's a very good football team. I think Tennessee is gonna be really difficult out. But what I'm hearing now rumblings late in the week. And I try not to let this influence me, and I don't usually, but you still it

gets into your brain spaces. With the sharp money's on New England. Here comes all the sharp money New England with this lov a spread. A lot of wise guys love New England. I'm very curious to see how you guys feel about this. Mike will start with you here New England five point favorites, like the first game. This totals at forty four. Also like the first game up from forty two. I'm with you here, gil Uh. This is probably my August player of the week. And then

I like the five points with the dog here. Um. I think that Tennessee will be able to move the ball on the ground against New England. Um. And I'm concerned about how New England is going to move the ball against Tennessee. I I am going to put um probably close to what I bet on this game on the money line as well. Gil, I I just think that right now, right now, I mean, if the line is five, we're saying that New England's a point and a half, two points better than Tennessee on a neutral field.

I'm not sure about that. Um, I'm not sure that you can say New England's a better team than Tennessee. The only thing that gives me pause in this game is that I'm gonna have to bet on Ryan Tannehill. Now we still have the lens of Ryan Tannehill in Miami, and um, you know all the pick six as he threw down there in the struggles he had. But you know, he wasn't that bad against New England. I believe he

was four and seven and that might surprise people. Four and seven in the eleven games he started, he played against the Dolphins, where against New England, where he played a full game as the Dolphins quarterback, Travis Henry very difficult to tackle. Um, he's a workhorse. They gave him the week off in Week sixteen so they would be ready for weeks seventeen against Houston. I think you're gonna see a lot of carries by him. I think that Tennessee gets the lead in this game, and I think

that they go wire to wire here. I'll take the five points and I'll take the money line with the Titans. Is that an official sprinkle on the money line? Is that what you Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I'm probably gonna bet between eight hundred and a thousand on this game, so it might be seven hundred on plus five three hundred on the money line, but I've definitely

got the money line. I actually have a a parlay live with Oregon the money line plus one forty five from yesterday, uh to to to Tennessee on the money line. So I got a wrong side winner. And to start that off, yes, he did good for you on that. That was I was due for a right side loser. I finally got, by the way, of course, Mike meant Derrick Henry, not Travis. Sorry, Travis henryho was busy taking

care of his multitude of children. I don't know if you're aware of this with Travis Henry, lots of kids, lots of them. Todd Tennessee, New England. I think you feel the same. Yes, it scares me, but I do Usually when we all like one side it can be dangerous. But I just think that, uh, this is not the same New England. You know, a lot of people like, well,

you can't Bill Belichick. I'll have him ready. Well, in the past when this kind of thing happened, it happened early in the season, and they righted the ship and by the end of the year they were peaking again. Especially like last year, this year, it's not the same thing. There is no one open. There is no one to throw the ball too. If I don't, youn't and Edelman gets taken out of the game, there's no tight end to throw too. There's no wide receiver's wide open like

usual and Patriots game, and they they go to Rex Burkhardt. Now, I mean, Rex Burkhardt's a nice little player, but he's not exactly you know somebody who you know, he's not Randy Moss, you know, he's he's a he's a nice little running back out of the backfield. There's nobody to throw the ball too. And I think that New England's really struggling on offense, and it's and it's leaking into their defense because their their defense is under you know,

the rest because the offense is playing so poorly. Uh tennis, five points is a lot of points in in an NFL game. And uh, you know, I think Lombardi and you guys, and you were talking on on this on your show Gil on Tuesday about how one of the coordinators obviously variable played for Um Belichick, but also one of the coordinators coached for Um Belichick, so they've had some success against him the people who have coached with him before. I just think five is too many points. Yeah.

The rate at which former assist and again you're right, rabel is not a former assistant but a former player, but he does have former assistant on his staff. The rate at which they beat Belichick for exceeds the rate at which non former assistance and players beat Bill Belichick.

And you're right. I mean, the one thing about this is as we're saying this, like in the back of all of our minds, I would imagine certainly in mind as I'm saying this the whole time, there's this little voice going and you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England. And you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England, you idiot. But that is quickly countered by what you just said.

Todd which is, you know, at some point they just don't have the bodies right, so like everything that even Bill Belichick can't overcome something like that. At least that's the bet Joe tell us if we're all idiotic. All right, this is one of the tougher ones on the card for me. So probably the way you felt about the last one with Buffalo and Houston is how I feel here.

I don't disagree with anything I've heard, and I think one of the most important things heading into this game is to find a way to not let the previous eighteen years of Belichick and Brady cloud your judgment, right, Like, that's what a lot of people are gonna do. If you were the alien and you were just coming down to Earth in and this is the only season you watched to think the Patriots are good. You don't think

the Patriots are great as we know them. So how much of what we've seen in the past is going to cloud our judgment? For example, last year, how many people I'm not saying everyone, but how many people like the Chargers after they steamrolled Baltimore to go into New England and get them The Patriots score on the opening drive, the Chargers answer at seven seven, and then after that it was a complete blowout point being I don't know how much of that I want to let cloud my judgment.

The one thing I've tried to boil this down to is how good is Tennessee? How good is Tennessee? Because we've got plenty of examples of watching them this year. I don't know if you need to go into the past with New England. I don't need to go into the past with Tennessee. But if I look at the Titans this year specifically under Ryan Tannehill, there seven and three, and during those ten games, they went six, three and one against the spread, So they've been very profit bowl,

they scored a lot of points. They've been very good. But let's ask ourselves who have they played? Who have they beaten up on? Of those seven wins that they have, six came against teams with a losing record. Right six came against teams with a losing record. All six of those teams right four teeth are worse in scoring defense. Most of them were bottom ten scoring defenses, so they weren't exactly beating up on the cream of the crop.

The one game that they want in those seven that wasn't against the bat football team, was against the Kansas City Chiefs, and there's nothing to take away from that victory. But you do have to note the fact that that game came in Nashville, it didn't come on the road. Tannehill's played four road games with the Titans. One was a loss at Carolina, one was last week at Houston against the B squad, and the other two were victories over a really lousy Oakland team and a lousy Indianapolis team.

So I'm wondering, now, how did New England stack up against what Tannehill's beaaten this year. That's the one thing that has me hesitated about playing Tennessee. It doesn't mean up playing New England, it just has he hesitant about playing Tennessee because I'm going back that to Week seven PM when they lost to Miami. I'm gonna go back

to Week seven team, that Saturday game against Buffalo. The Patriots in the game plan in that game was almost exactly what I think they're gonna try to deploy here and throughout the playoffs. They're gonna run the clock all the way down, They're gonna try to establish the run. They're gonna go dank and dunk and they're gonna try to put together eight nine minute drives. And they did it against Buffalo, who's a very familiar team. Buffalo knows

them well. Buffalo played them tight early in the year. Buffalo is a better defense than Tennessee, and they were able to pull that off. And if we're talking about covering five to get that lead like they did in that game, and then you add one late, see you later, it's a point spread cover for the Patriots and come Monday, we're all going, why do we bet against the Patriots in the playoffs at home against Tennessee. That's what worries me about it, because I think that's gonna be the

game plan. And I think Mike Rabel, while he's got the experience of having played for Belichick, I questioned his game management. I've seen him in a lot of games where he's been late to the draw on situations where he should have said the field goals unit out kicked and then gone on side. He doesn't know those sort of things. He doesn't act that way. He's a he's the he's the old football motivator. He's gonna get you

fired up. He's gonna put you in a position where you're motivating, ready to play, but I don't know if he's gonna have the tactics to get by Belichick. We're talking about five points in a tight game where I could see Brady and New England's finding a way to cut out of field goal at the end of the first half and then finding out a way to make one more played than the Titans of the second half. So it's a little bit hesitant for me. It's probably

a very small lean to New England. But right now, I I just I can't find myself on Tennessee just yet. I don't disagree with anything anybody's saying about the Titans. It's just tough seeing how they've had all this success, but against the competition and with which it's come, it's not overly impressive to me. Yeah, and I feel I feel the same way about what you just said, Like as as much conviction as I have on Tennessee, and it is the most I have of any of these

four games. Could I see myself Monday morning, very first thing on a numbers game at Visa in serious X channel too for going yep, I bet against Bill Belichick I'm an idiot. The first words out of my mouth absolutely, like totally, it's it's so possible. I will say this though, if in fact this is the end of the New England dynasty, we will point back to last week against the Dolphins as ground zero for it, because that's a game as a seventeen point favorite. And ESPN even put

this up. That's the second worst loss visa via the betting market, through the lens of the betting markets, the second worst loss by defending Super Bowl champion ever by seventeen point favorite. I think there was a game in nineteen sixty seven that was worse. But that's it. I mean that you don't lose a game like that, and you certainly don't lose a game like that if you're the Patriots and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They could not stop him and they couldn't guard. They couldn't you know, Von Gilmore,

as great as he was, couldn't check Davante Parker. Everything you say, I feel the same way, like there's nothing wrong about it. I'm gonna bet my conviction here. I think this is the end for New England. I really do. In Tennessee, I do this off the grid thing this sort of school stock market thing that rarely talk about. But I'm buying on Tennessee here moving forward in the postseason because I think they are a sneaky little team moving forward can make some noise. Not gonna win at all,

but could make some noise in the a f C playoffs. Sunday, gentlemen, we switch to the NFC again. Really weird this year that both conference games for each conference are on their own individual days, So two games from the a f C on Saturday, then the NFC starts. Remember this is early now on Sunday. The games start later on Saturday, but early on Sunday as per tradition. One oh five pm Eastern, ten o five am Pacific for Minnesota at New Orleans. That's the sixth three game in the NFC.

Minnesota was already locked into the number six position, so like Buffalo, for instance, in the a f C, they had nothing to play for last week. They started Shawn Mannon, Kirk Cousins got arrest and by the way, Dalvin cooked by injury as well an extra week New Orleans, Uh. They come off a just ay, absolutely hammering of their opponent. They had seeding to play for in Week seventeen didn't work out for them, so they're stuck with a first round game. But what a team to be playing a

game wild card weekend. New Orleans eight point favorites now consensus. You'll you'll see some seven and a half's out there, but they're eight point favorites against the Vikings total forty nine and a half, teetering on fifty forty nine and a half extra juice. Todd start with you, I don't love this against the spread pre flap. Yeah, I don't either.

I mean I would probably put it. I would be comfortable putting New Orleans in a teaser down to two, but I don't really trust them to to win by eight. That's a lot of points against the quality team. Now, granted, they're going against Kirk Cousins, and as we know, Mr Cousins struggles a bit on the road and especially in big spots. UH Minnesota. To me, UH is the kind of team that they can at home, they can look very good, although they haven't even looked at great at

home lately. But on the road they struggle a lot. I mean, they lost that Packer game. They looked horrendous and that was that was even at home. But I just don't really have a lot of faith in Minnesota. At the same time, I don't have a lot of faith in the Saints that they're just gonna blow people out, you know, at home. So you know, to me, this is kind of either a stay away or tease it down to two, you know, in this game. Although maybe

I would lean to the under in this game. I would I would maybe lean to the under just because you know, you gotta think Minnesota is gonna try to run the ball and slow the game down a bit on the road against against the Saints, So that's where I would probably lean there on the under. New Orleans with a thirteen and three record without a first round by the NFC just filled with teams with gaudy records.

Not only New Orleans at thirteen and three. Obviously, San Francisco is the number one seed throughout the NFC playoffs there at thirteen and three. Green Bay somehow at thirteen and three as well, they're the other team with the buy. So New Orleans stuck with the extra game. Joe, your thoughts here, I'm going to be over in this one, and I think Todd's right. If you're Minnesota you're absolutely gonna want to run Dalvin Cook, and you're gonna want to try to grind the clock and keep the ball

away from breeze. The problem is if you aren't able to do that early and you fall behind, you've got to abandon that plan, and you're gonna have to abandon it quick because New Orleans has been scoring in bunches as of late. Go back to that loss against Atlanta and get ten when the Falcons came into the Voodoo Doome and beat the Saint Nine. Since then, they have played seven games. They're averaging thirty six points per game during those seven games, scoring thirty four or more in

six of those games. The offense has been absolutely fantastic, but the defense hasn't. And I'll get to that in a second. You look at Minnesota. You know them for defense, but they're a very different team on the road than they are in the Dome when they play at home and they've got the benefit of the crowd noise twenty

eight sacks. You look at their red zone defense, their third down defense, points allowed, They're only given up sixteen points per game at home, yards per play five All the way across the board, they're one of the best in the business when they're at home, but when they go on the road, they become average to below average.

They given up about twenty two points per game, five point four yards per play, forty five percent third down conversions only twenty stacks, and the red zone conversion of all red zone trips result the touchdown versus thirty six percent when it's in Minnesota. That's gonna be a really tall order for this group, led by a corner in Xavier Roads who has been victimized all season long. That guy went from being one of the premier corners in the league to being someone you absolutely pick on every

opportunity you get. And the States are gonna want to get Michael Thomas on via Roads as often as possible. So with the way the States have been playing, with the urgency, with the the they're bringing in Antonio Brown, they're putting in the waiver claim ont Noris Jenkins. They know this is the end of the line for the Peyton Breeze era. I'm not saying Breeze retires after this year, but this might be their last best chance. They're they're gonna they're going falls to the wall here now in

terms of covering eight. No, I'm probably not going that far, but I think they're to get theirs, which means Minnesota is gonna be in faith mode for most of the game, and I think they're gonna be throwing the ball a lot with Kirk Cousins. I'm not sure how much I trust that, but I do know that New Orleans defense, whether they're at home or on the road, no matter what the scenario, they're not all that great. They're giving up about twenty three points per game at home this season.

If you're Minnesota, you've got to study some of the San Francisco tape of what the Niners were doing a few weeks ago, because the Saints aren't aren't bulletproof at home like they were in the past. We're doing this podcast five six, eight years ago. We're talking about there's no way get bet against the Saints and MS home. There's no way you even consider it in the playoffs, but now you will. Atlanta went in there and gotta win. Uh.

San Francisco went in there and gotta win. They struggled early in the season against Houston, seek that one out. They're vulnerable and it's because of the defense. So I'm gonna play over here over forty nine another play there on the over for Joe Um the other one Buffalo Houston has gotten away from his bet at forty one and a half, but it's at forty four, this one forty nine and a half currently, So you uh that price? You would make the overplay at forty nine and a

half still Joe in this one? Yeah? Yes? I would? Yeah? Could I? I It was forty two and a half where I had to build forty two and a half. I'm sorry, okay, um it open and a half. I did not get that. Unfortunately. I said this before the l s U Oklahoma game, and I was all over L s U as so many people were. But one of the comments I made on the show was that I don't know any single person that thought Oklahoma could

win that game out right cover. Yes, I knew a couple of people, but to win it out right, there wasn't a single person that I know, And as it turned out, everyone was right not to have that thought with this game. I get it, it's a different animal. It's the NFL, but it's not the largest spread in the world. I don't know one person who thinks Minnesota wins this football game out right cover, maybe, but I

haven't run into one yet. And as a guy who grew up on the Redskins and watched every snep that Kirk Cousins had there in Washington, if Minnesota loses here, that's two thirds of Minnesota's eighty four million dollar contract to Kirk Cousins. That is over with. Two thirds of the Kirk Cousins experience will be in your rear view.

And I'm wondering, if Minnesota loses here, and let's say they lose in spectacular fashion, do the Vikings make a change at head coach, Like there's always one surprise in the NFL. I'm wondering if Mike Zimmer might be out and Kevin Somnaski might be on his way up. That's something to think about here as well. But I don't know one person who thinks Minnesota win is out right. Maybe Mike, you will tell me different. I certainly won't.

I'll lay the eight here. I'm also going to tease him down, but because I think it's a good tease, play again him under three. But I think they're goodness. Game is not competitive. Um, if there was any team mid season. I was more wrong about this year. It's

the Minnesota Vikings. I I really thought that because of their balance, and by that I mean the ability to run the ball, targets at wide receiver and tight end, and a top ten defense, uh that they could even go on the road with Kirk Cousins because it looked like they were gonna have trouble winning the division and get to the super Bowl. I just don't think that their secondary is an elite secondary. I think it's a below average secondary. And I don't think their offensive line

is as good as I thought. I don't know that they can run the ball. Kirk Cousins is only effective if they can run the ball. Look at his numbers on play action versus his numbers where he just goes to a seventh step or a five step drop. He he is a below average quarterback when he just drops back and you know he's throwing the ball. I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball in New Orleans. I'm with Joe. I think they get behind,

and I think this game gets out ahead. If you're gonna rely on Kirk Cousins to lead you on three touchdown drives, in the second half to cover this game. That's not a spot I want to be and I think this is a route, So I'll lay eight and I agree with Joe. I think it's probably gets over because the Saints will build a lead and they will give up give up some points in the second half when Minesota gets a chase mode and by Kevin Stefanski. Of course I met Kevin Stefanski. Let me just point

that out as well. I will speak to that. I don't think they get rid of zimmer Gil, even if they get run out in this game. I just don't. I think they might make some other organizational changes. I even might take that they might. I know they paid Kirk Cousins all this money, um, but I think because it's more likely that Cousins is not there than Ben zimmer I do not think they're going away from zimmer

And in some strange way. I mean, I keep getting back to this point on the show this year, but in some strange way, it's it's it gets always gets back in the NFL economy to this point in these quarterbacks careers, which is a pretty recent development where it's

like Kirk Cousins is up for a contract. Jared Goff is now Jamis Winston is and these teams are forced probably prematurely, right before they really have all the evidence they need to throw eighty two a hundred hundred twenty million dollars at these guys to know if these are really guys that will get him to the Promised Land. And again it gets back check it down man now down Man. Thatursday Morning, January second tent Wow, The Beating

the Book Podcast. The playoffs are here, wild Card Weekend Megapod. Gil Alexander with the staples of the show on my right from Circus Sports, the vice president of Operations, the Great Mike Palm. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Gil, Good morning Todd. It's nice to see back on the pod after a couple of weeks off. But hopefully everybody got the best bets the last few weeks. Yeah we did. Happy New Year to you. Happy new Year, Todd. You good. Yes,

life is beautiful. It's sunny out again. It's fantastic. I have a water here and I can take a shower. Oh that's excellent. And our rotating guest on the show is not just a rotating guest for the playoffs. We only bring in the All Stars. It's his second appearance of the year, lays gentleman from ESPN two's Daily Wager and also, may I just say the host of Joe Lowan Dibbs in the Morning ninety five point seven the Game in San Francisco, Joe fort and Ball Mega Pod staple,

what's happening? Not a lot kill, It's great to be here. Happy New Year. I'm still trying to figure out if you're hustling me or not. I get this text mess New Year's Eve. Hey would love to have you on the megapod, and I'm thinking to myself, all right, this guy is clearly desperate. Everyone's turned him down and he's hit me up during dinner on New Year's Eve. But then I get the text that says, no, no, only the All Stars for the playoff podcast. So now you're

tickling my you know what a little bit. I'm thinking to myself, is he being true? Is he playing with me? But either way, it's always a pleasure to be here. Thank you for the in fight. I always welcome the conversation. You are a welcome, sir, and it is actually the latter. You're the first person I called. You are the first person I called. In fact, in my head, I was like, I'm doing fort and Ball wild Card and then I'm gonna have Lombardi for the divisional round. That was exactly

the what was in my head. Then you're just lazy waiting that. Then you're just lazy waiting that long the book it. Yeah, that's that is more accurate that you know. That's what happens you. You probably know this too, right, because you do like multiple things, and I don't know if you're the one booking on any of those platforms, but there's something that always gets where you're like, at the last minute, you're like, oh damn, I gotta do that.

I forgot. Oh yeah, dude. When you're in this type of business, when you're when you're when you're lucky enough to be working on different platforms, you have your day to day routine. You gotta you gotta be good with your time management and your organization, and even then there's always the one little thing you forgot to do. It. It's never major, but it's just like shoot holidays coming up. I totally see where you're coming from. And it's very much an honor to get to lead off before Lombardi

next week. You know me and him go way back. Oh yeah, I know you do, way back in the day. Lombardi is the best. All right, gentlemen, let's do it. Wild Card weekend. There's four games. It's very straightforward. Let's start with them in chronological order. Very strange this year where we have the two a f C games on one day and the two NFC games on the other. That doesn't usually happen, but based on time zones, that's how it shakes out. And so we start with the

a f C on Saturday. These are the games that are staggered later. They start later in the day. First game four thirty five pm Eastern, kick off one thirty five pm Pacific. It's the five four game in the a f C between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Texans are favored now by two and a half. It was three when it first came out. It's off the key number of three. It's two and a half total at forty four. Buffalo already had this position clinched, so

they didn't have anything to play for last week. Houston didn't have anything to play for either. Uh so they're coming off really what amounts to a de facto by in both cases of all the four games, for me, this is the one that I would have guessed three when it came out three. We had we had a guessing lines this week. It's not the one that I love against. The spread is the most bettable. But I know we have some different opinions here. I know Todd

you like this game a lot. Let's start with our guest, Joe. What do you think about this game? Buffalo at Houston? Two plays on this game earlier in the week. Um, I took the Bills plus and I took the over at forty two and a half. Now, I didn't get the best of it on the over. I think forty one and a half was out there, but both have moved in the right the rest. For me since that happened, the one I like more is the over in this matchup.

As soon as I saw that number at forty one and a half, I just started thinking to myself, this feels this feels really low given the matchup, and I understand that the first thought would be to look at the Bills and to say, well, you know, they don't score a lot of points, because they don't. They scored twenty one points a game at home, or they scored twenty one points a game on the road. They scored seventeenth points per game at home. They're not exactly a

quick stripe offense. Josh Allen is the most consistent of quarterbacks. So you're gonna look at that and you're gonna realize Buffalo has got one of the better defenses in the league, and you're gonna think to yourself, when it's all said and done, this is probably gonna be a grind amount of fair. But I think the one disadvantage for Bustalo a quick strike offense, it's not gonna hurt them as much here. I think they're gonna be able to move

the ball. Houston defense is absolutely dreadful, absolutely dreadful this season. They are dead last in the NFL and red zone defense and dead last and opponent yards for play thirty one and opponent third down conversions twenty eight and total defense. And if you keep in mind, like I said earlier, the Builds are scoring more points on the road than

they are at home. Now, I don't think that matters too much here, but they're not the type of team that goes on the road and completely struggles to move the football. Now you look at Buffalo defense this year and you say to yourself, well, this is a great unit. If the offense is running slow and they're controlling tempo and you let the defense go out there and do their thing, this should be an under And I can

understand that. But in their sixteen games this year, eleven of them came against teams that ranked twenty one or worse in yards for play. They didn't exactly play the murderers row of NFL offense. They got a lot of good matchups that put the defense in a position to make a lot of key plays. And that's about to downgrade the defense. It's just to say, look at the competition,

look at the people they played this year. If we move away from the eleven games in which they played teams that ranked twenty one or worst in yards for play, that leads us with five games. One of them was the Baltimore game, which they lost, all they played very well in that game. One of them was the Cleveland game which they lost, and one of them was the Tennessee game, which they won, but that was with Marcus

Mariota at quarterback rather than Ryan Tannehill. Point being, Houston ranks eleven in the NFL and yards perform right, excuse me when I've got a feeling they're gonna have a little bit more success. They've got playoff history, they they're hosting this game, so the crowd noises in their favor. I think they're gonna have a little bit more success

against Buffalo's defense. And I think Buffalo's offense is gonna be able to find success against Houston defense, which is why my favorite play on this game is the over. Now it's up to forty four, I don't like it as much right now, but I still think this game is gonna feature more scoring than anyone's anticipating early on. Alright, so I a strong play of the over from the always thorough Joe Ford and bought, Joe, whatever you're doing it,

uh daily wager you're doing it right? That was very thorough. I like that. It's it's avocado toast. I started my days with avocado toast. Of course, you do. You live in San Francisco, for God's six um not to take a shot at San Francisco. I live there for twenty one years. I love the people, but you know what I mean, We're not at the teaser section of the show yet, but Buffalo is just screaming teaser to me. Mike, your thoughts here on the first of the four wild

Card Round playoff games. I'm I'm with Todd in that I have a hard time or maybe with you, Gil and that I have a hard time um understanding this Houston Texan team. I just don't know what team is going to show up on Saturday. Now. From a history standpoint, we've seen them struggle in this early Saturday wild Card game through the years. But I can't trust this team and I'd like to back Buffalo in this spot, but I don't know what Houston team is going to show up.

So for me, this game has to be a hard pre flop pass and look for an in game opportunity. To Joe's point, Houston has allowed twenty eight touchdown passes in their last twelve games. Their defense is just not good anyway. Slice that they will be getting J. J. Watt back for this game though, needs to be noted. Dodd, you do have a lot of conviction on this game, right Well, I don't know if I want to say go with the word a lot, but I definitely like it.

I like Buffalo, And uh, here's the reason why I like Buffalo. Uh. If you look at the Houston Texans over the last seven well, first of all, I don't like their coach. Let let it be said that Bill O'Brien is one of those John Foxian type of coaches that can get you to nine and seven, but is not anything spectacular, and when he gets in there against much better coaches, he struggles. That being said, their last seven games at Baltimore they lost forty one to seven.

Indianapolis they won twenty to seventeen when Minitary kicked it right into the line, it was blocked and ran back for a touchdown. Game they should have lost. They beat New England, but you know everyone beats New England nowadays, right, even even the Dolphins can. They got crushed against Denver. Then they beat Tennessee on the road. Okay, well give him a little credit for that. Then at Tampa Bay they needed Cameron Break to drop a fourth and three

pad us to win that game. Then they got killed by Tennessee in a game Okay that didn't matter. So to me, I haven't seen anything in the last half of the season. Out of the Texans. That looks very promising. I think they're going the wrong way. They're not peeking. And Buffalo, on the other hand, I like what they've done. I think that New England game was life and death

all for New England to win. They had to pull out every stop, every trick in the book that Belichick was running, trick play after trick play to barely win that game. And had Rex Burkehard not broken fourteen tackles at the one yard line, it would have been a three point game and it could have gone anyway either way. They went into Pittsburgh and one Now, granted Pittsburgh has no quarterback, agreed, but still, I just like the Buffalo

coach better. I like the Buffalo defense is stout, as Joe Forton Ball has has showed us with the statistics. Why can't Buffalo keep this tight and either lose seventeen sixteen or win seventeen sixteen. Well, see, I'll go one step further, and I know I'm getting ahead to our final two questions of the show, which will just apply

to the four wild card games. But like, this is the one game of the four, and this is even more so than Seattle, Philadelphi because I think most people, maybe maybe a lot of people will would gravitate towards that game for this But of all the games where I could see such different, like completely different outcomes, and I would totally believe it beforehand, it's the Buffalo Houston game.

If you told me right now Houston wins this game by double digits, I wouldn't be that shocked home playoff game at all, because Buffalo is they do struggle on offense. But if you told me the opposite as well, I'd be like, oh yeah, I could see that totally happening as well. And I'm not sure any of the other three games do I fathom those? Why those those big gap it outcomes like that, the large variance and outcomes.

So this game, for me, I'm with you, Mike. For pre flop purposes, I don't love it against the spread. I will put Buffalo in teasers, but I just I don't trust Houston. I don't trust Josh Allen to hit a pass when he needs to. I mean, they win that game him against New England. Buffalo does a couple of weeks ago. If Josh Allen just hits a couple

open receivers. So it's just it's a frustrating game. I'm glad it's the first of the bunch so that we get this one out of the way, which brings us to the game that I think I have the most conviction on against the spread pre flop. And here's what happens when you have a whole week to bat this around your head. I love Tennessee. Uh they're getting five now, which is where I got it earlier in the week, Tennessee at New England. I don't think New England's a

very good football team. I think Tennessee is gonna be really difficult out. But what I'm hearing now rumblings late in the week. And I try not to let this influence me, and I don't usually, but you still it gets into your brain spaces. With the sharp money's on New England. Here comes all the sharp money New England with this LoVa spread. A lot of wise guys love New England. I'm very curious to see how you guys feel about this. Mike will start with you here. New

England five point favorites. Like the first game, This totals at forty four. Also like the first game up from forty two I'm with you here, gil Uh. This is probably my strongest play of the week. And then I like the five points with the dog here. Um, I think that Tennessee will be able to move the ball on the ground against New England. Um, And I'm concerned about how New England is going to move the ball

against Tennessee. I I am going to put um probably close to of what I bet on this game on the money line as well, Gil, I, I just think that right now, right now, I mean, if the line is five, we're saying that New England's a point and a half, two points better than Tennessee on a neutral field. I'm not sure about that. Um, I'm not sure that you can say New England's a better team than Tennessee. The only thing that gives me pause in this game is that I'm gonna have to bet on Ryan Tannehill.

Now we still have the lens of Ryan Tannehill in Miami, and um, you know all the pick six as he threw down there in the struggles. He yet but you know, he wasn't that bad against New England. I believe he was four and seven and that might surprise people. Four and seven in the eleven games he started. He played against the Dolphins, where against New England, where he played a full game as the Dolphins quarterback Travis Henry very

difficult to tackle. Um he's a workhorse. They gave him the week off in Week sixteen so they would be ready for Week seventeen against Houston. I think you're gonna see a lot of carries by him. I think that Tennessee gets the lead in this game, and I think that they go wire to wire here. I'll take the five points and I'll take the money line with the Titans. Is that an official sprinkle on the money line? Is

that what? You? Is that? What? Yeah? I'm probably gonna bet between eight hundred and a thousand on this game, so it might be seven hundred on plus five three hundred on on the money line. But I've definitely got the money line. I actually have a a parlay live with Oregon on the money line plus one forty five from yesterday, uh to to to Tennessee on the money line. So I got a wrong side winner. And to start that off, yes, he did good for you on that. That was I was due for a right side loser.

I finally got by the way of course, Mike meant Derrick Henry, not Travis. Sorry Travis Henry, who's busy taking care of his multitude of children. I don't know if you're aware of this with Travis Henry, lots of kids, lots of them. Todd Tennessee, New England, I think you feel the same. Yes, it scares me, but I do usually when we all like one side, it can be dangerous. But I just think that, uh, this is not the same New England. You know, a lot of people like, well,

you can't have Bill Belichick, I'll have him ready. Well, in the past when this kind of thing happened, it happened early in the season, and they righted the ship and by the end of the year they were peaking again. Especially like last year, this year, it's not the same thing. There is no one open. There is no one to throw the ball to if Edelman, Edelman gets taken out of the game, there's no tight end to throw too. There's no wide receiver's wide open like usual and Patriots

game and they go to Rex Burkhardt. Now, I mean, Rex Burkhardt's a nice little player, but he's not exactly you know somebody who you know he's not Randy Moss. You know, he's he's a he's a nice little running back out of the backfield. There's nobody to throw the ball too. And I think that New England's really struggling on offense and it's and it's leaking into their defense because their their defense is under you know, the rest,

because the offense is playing so poorly. Uh, tennis, five points is a lot of points in in an NFL game, And uh, you know, I think Lombardi and you guys and you were talking on on this on your show Gil on Tuesday about how one of the coordinators obviously variable played for Um Belichick, but also one of the coordinators coach for Um Belichick, so they've had some success against him the people who have coached with him before.

I just think five is too many points. Which former assistance and again you're right, Rabel's not a former assistant but a former player, but he does have former assistant on staff. The rate at which they beat Belichick far exceeds the rate at which non former assistance and players beat Bill Belichick. And you're right. I mean, the one thing about this is, as we're saying this, like in

the back of all of our minds. I would imagine, certainly in mind as I'm saying this the whole time, there's this little voice going and you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England. And you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England, you idiot. But that is quickly countered by what you just said, Todd, which is, you know, at some point they just don't have the bodies, right, So like everything that even Bill Belichick can't overcome something

like that. At least that's the bet Joe tell us if we're all idiotic, all right, this is one of the tougher ones on the card for me. So probably the way you felt about the last one with Buffalo and Houston is how I feel here. I don't disagree with anything I've heard, and I think one of the most important things heading into this game is to find a way to not let the previous eighteen years of Belichick and Brady cloud your judgment, right, Like that's what

a lot of people are gonna do. If you were the alien and you were just coming down to Earth in and this is the only season you watched to think the Patriots are good, you don't think the Patriots are great as we know them, so how much of what we've seen in the past is going to cloud

our judgment? For example, last year, how many people I'm not saying everyone, but how many people like the Chargers after they steamrolled Baltimore to go into New England and GenAm the Patriots score on the opening drive, the Chargers answer at seven seven, and then after that it was a complete but blowout. Point being, I don't know how much of that I want to let cloud my judgment. The one thing I've tried to boil this down to

is how good is Tennessee? How good is Tennessee? Because we've got plenty of examples of watching them this year. I don't know if you need to go into the past with New England. I don't need to go into the past with Tennessee. But if I look at the Titans this year specifically under Ryan Tannehill, there seven and three and during those ten games they went six three and one against the spread. So they've been very profitable, They've scored a lot of points. They've been very good.

But let's ask ourselves who have they played, who have they beaten up on? Of those seven wins that they have six came against teams with a losing record. Right six came against teams with a losing record. All six of those teams right four teeth are worse in scoring defense. Most of them were bottom ten scoring defenses, so they weren't exactly beating up on the cream of the crop.

The one game that they want in those seven that wasn't against the bat Football team was against the Kansas City Chiefs, and there's nothing to take away from that victory. But you do have to note the fact that that game came in Nashville. It didn't come on the road. Tannehill's played four road games with the Titans. One was a loss at Carolina, one was last week at Houston against the B squad, and the other two were victories over a really lousy Oakland team and a lousy Indianapolis team.

So I'm wondering, now, how did New England stack up against what Tannehill's beatn this year. That's the one thing that has me hesitant about playing Tennessee. It doesn't mean I'm playing New Wayland. It just has me hesitant about playing Tennessee because I'm going back that to Week seven tea when they lost to Miami. I'm gonna go back

to Week sevent team, that Saturday game against Buffalo. The Patriots in the game plan in that game was almost exactly what I think they're gonna try to deploy here and throughout the playoffs. They're gonna run the clock all the way down, They're gonna try to establish the run. They're gonna go dank and dunk, and they're gonna try to put together eight nine minute drives. And they did it against Buffalo, who's a very familiar team. Buffalo knows

them well. Buffalo played them tight early in the year. Buffalo is a better defense than Tennessee, and they were able to pull that off. And if we're talking about covering five to get that lead like they did in that game, and then you add one late, see you later, it's a point spread cover for the Patriots. And come Monday, we're all going, why do we bet against the Patriots in the playoffs at home against Tennessee. That's what worries me about it, because I think that's gonna be the

game plan. And I think Mike Rabel, while he's got the experience of having played for Belichick, I questioned his game management. I've seen him in a lot of games where he's been late to the draw on six wations where he should have set the field goals unit out kicked and then gone on side. He doesn't know those sort of things. He doesn't act that way. He's a he's the he's the old football motivator. He's gonna get you fired up. He's gonna put you in a position

where you're motivating, ready to play. But I don't know if he's gonna have the tactics to get by Belichick. We're talking about five points in a tight game where I could see Brady and New England's finding a way to cut out of field goal at the end of the first half and then finding out a way to make one more played than the Titans of the second half. So it's a little bit hesitant for me. It's probably

a very small lean to New England. But right now, I I just I can't find myself on Tennessee just yet. I don't disagree with anything anybody's saying about the Titans. It's just tough seeing how they've had all this success, but against the competition and with which it's come. It's not overly impressive to me. Yeah, and I feel I feel the same way about what you just said, like as as much conviction as I have on Tennessee, and it is the most I have of any of these

four games. Could I see myself Monday morning, very first thing on a numbers game at Vicence erious X Channel two or four going yep, I bet against Bill Belichick. I'm an idiot. The first words out of my mouth absolutely, like totally, it's it's so possible. I will say this though, if in fact this is the end of the New England dynasty, we will point back to last week against the Dolphins as ground zero for it, because that's a

game as a seventeen point favorite. And ESPN even put this up, that's the second worst loss visa via the betting market, through the lens of the betting markets, the second worst loss by defending Super Bowl champion ever by seventeen point favorite. I think there was a game in nineteen sixty seven that was worse. But that's it. I mean that you don't lose a game like that, and you certainly don't lose a game like that if you're the Patriots and Ryan Fitzpatrick, they could not stop him,

and they couldn't guard. They couldn't. You know, Stevon Gilmore, as great as he was, couldn't check Davante Parker. Everything you say, I feel the same way, like there's nothing wrong about it. I'm gonna bet my conviction here. I think this is the end for New England. I really do in Tennessee. I do this off the grid thing, this sort of school stock market thing that I rarely talk about. But I'm buying on Tennessee here moving forward in the postseason, because I think they are a sneaky

little team moving forward can make some noise. Not gonna win at all, but could make some noise in the a f C playoffs. Sunday, gentlemen, we switch to the NFC again. Really weird this year that both conference games for each conference are on their own individual days. So two games from the a f C on Saturday, then the NFC starts. Remember this is early now on Sunday. The games start later on Saturday, but early on Sunday as per tradition. One oh five pm Eastern, ten o

five am Pacific for Minnesota at New Orleans. That's the sixth three game in the NFC. Minnesota was already locked into the number six position, so like Buffalo for instance, in the a f C, they had nothing to play for last week they started, Shawn Mann and Kirk Cousins got arrest and by the way, Dalvin cooked by injury as well. An extra week. New Orleans, Uh, they come

off a just a absolutely hammering of their opponent. They had seeding to play for in week seventeen didn't work out for them, so they're stuck with a stround game. But what a team to be playing a game wild card weekend. New Orleans eight point favorites now consensus. You'll you'll see some seven and a half's out there, but they're eight point favorites against the Vikings total forty nine and a half, teetering on fifty forty nine and a half extra juice. Todd start with you, I don't love

this against the spread pre flap. Yeah, I don't either. I mean I would probably put it. I would be comfortable putting New Orleans in a teaser down to two, but I don't really trust them to to win by eight. That's a lot of points against the quality team. Now, granted they're going against Kirk Cousins and as we know Mr Cousins struggles a bit on the road and especially

in big spots. UH. Minnesota, to me, UH is the kind of team that they can at home, they can look very good, although they haven't even looked at great at home lately. But on the road they struggle a lot. I mean, they lost that Packer game. They looked horrendous and that was that was even at home. But I just don't really have a lot of faith in Minnesota. At the same time, I don't have a lot of faith in the Saints that that they're just gonna blow

people out, you know, at home. So you know, to me, this is kind of either a stay away or tease it down to two, you know, in this game. Although maybe I would lean to the under in this game, I would I would maybe lean to the under just because you know, you gotta think Minnesota is gonna try to run the ball and slow the game down a bit on the road against against the Saints, So that's

where I would probably lean there on the under. New Orleans with a thirteen and three record without a first round by the NFC just filled with teams with gaudy records. Not only New Orleans at thirteen and three. Obviously, San Francisco is the number one seed throughout the NFC playoffs there at thirteen and three. Green Bay somehow at thirteen and three as well. They're the other team with the buy. So New Orleans stuck with the extra game. Joe, your

thoughts here. I'm going to be over in this one, and I think Todd's right. If you're Minnesota, you're absolutely gonna want to run Dalvin Cook and you're gonna want to try to grind the clock and keep the ball away from breeze. The problem is if you aren't able to do that early and you fall behind, you've got to abandon that plan, and you're gonna have to abandon it quick because New Orleans has been scoring in bunches

as of late. Go back to that loss against Atlanta in Week ten, when the Falcons came into the Voodoo Doome and beat the Saint Nine. Since then, they have played seven games. They're averaging thirty six points per game during those seven games, scoring thirty four or more in six of those games. The offense has been absolutely fantastic, but the defense hasn't. And I'll get to that in

a second. You look at Minnesota. You know them for defense, but they're a very different team on the road than they are in the dome when they play at home and they've got the benefit of the crowd noise, twenty eight sacks. You look at their red zone defense, their third down defense, points allowed, They're only given up sixteen points per game at home, yards per play, five all the way across the board. They're one of the best in business when they're at home, but when they go

on the road, they become average to below average. They given up about twenty two points per game, five point four yards per play, forty five percent third down conversions, only twenty stacks, and the red zone conversion of all red zone trips result the touchdown versus thirty six percent when it's in Minnesota. That's gonna be a really tall order for this group led by a corner and Xavier Road,

who has been victimized all season long. That guy went from being one of the premier corners in the league to being someone you absolutely pick on every opportunity you get. And the States are gonna want to get Michael Thomas on via roads as often as possible. So with the way the States have been playing, with the urgency with the they're bringing in Antonio Brown, they're putting in the waiver claim Ontreneurs Jenkins. They know this is the end

of the line for the Peyton Breeze era. I'm not saying Breeze retires after this year, but this might be their last best chance. They're they're gonna they're going falls to the wall here now in terms of covering eight, No, I'm probably not going that far, but I think they're gonna get there's which means Minnesota is gonna be in faith mode for most of the game, and I think they're gonna be throwing the ball a lot with Kirk Cousins.

I'm not sure how much I trust that, but I do know that New Orleans defense, whether they're at home or on the road, no matter what the scenario, they're not all that great. They're giving up about twenty three points per game at home this season. If you're Minnesota, you've got to study some of the San Francisco tape of what the Niners were doing a few weeks ago, because the States aren't aren't bulletproof at home like they were in the past. We're doing this podcast five, six,

eight years ago we're talking about. There's no way get bet against the Saints and MS home. There's no way you even consider it in the playoffs, but now you will. Atlanta went in there and gotta win. Uh. San Francisco went in there and gotta win. They struggled early in the season against Houston. Seek that one out. They're vulnerable

and it's because of the defense. So I'm gonna play over here over forty nine another play there on the over for Joe Um the other one Buffalo Houston has gotten away from his bet at forty one and a half, but it's at forty four, this one forty nine and a half currently, So you uh that price, You would make the overplay at forty nine and a half still Joe in this one? Yeah? Yes I would? Yeah? Could I? I it was forty two and a half where I had the build forty two and a half. I'm sorry, okay,

um it opened one and a half. I did not get that. Unfortunately. I said this before the L s U Oklahoma game, and I was all over L s U as so many people were. But one of the comments I made on the show was that I don't know any single person that thought Oklahoma could win that game out right cover. Yes, I knew a couple of people, but to win it out right there wasn't a single person that I know, And as it turned out, everyone was right not to have that thought with this game.

I get it, it's a different animal. It's the NFL, but it's not the largest spread in the world. I don't know one person who thinks Minnesota wins this football game out right cover. Maybe, but I haven't run into one yet. And as a guy who grew up on the Redskins and watched every step that Kirk Cousins had there in Washington, if Minnesota loses here, that's two thirds of Minnesota's eighty four million dollar contract to Kirk Cousins. That is over with. Two thirds of the Kirk Cousins

experience will be in your rear view. And I'm wondering, if Minnesota loses here, and let's say they lose in spectacular fashion, do the Vikings make a change at head coach? Like there's always one surprise in the NFL. I'm wondering if Mike Zimmer might be out and Kevin Somnaski might be on his way up. That's something to think about here as well. But I don't know one person who thinks Minnesota was is out right. Maybe Mike will tell me different. I certainly won't. I'll lay the eight here.

I'm also going to tease him down, but because I think it's a good tease, play again him under three. But I think they're goodness. Game is not competitive. Um. If there was any team mid season I was more

wrong about this year, it's the Minnesota Vikings. I I really thought that because of their balance, and by that I mean the ability to run the ball, targets at wide receiver and tight end, and a top ten defense, uh, that they could even go on the road with Kirk Cousins because it looked like they were going to have trouble winning the division and get to the super Bowl. I just don't think that their secondary is an elite secondary.

I think it's a below average secondary. And I don't think their offensive line is as good as I thought. I don't know that they can run the ball. Kirk Cousins is only effective if they can run the ball. Look at his numbers on play action versus his numbers where he just goes to a seventh step or a five step drop. He he is a below average quarterback when he just drops back and you know he's throwing the ball. I don't think they're gonna be able to

run the ball in New Orleans. I'm with Joe. I think they get behind, and I think this game gets out ahead. If you're gonna rely on Kirk Cousins to lead you on three touchdown drives in the second half to cover this game, that's not a spot I want to be. And I think this is a route. So I'll lay eight, and I agree with Joe. I think it's probably gets over because the Saints will build a lead and they will give up give up some points in the set in half when Minnesota gets a chase

mode and by Kevin Stefanski. Of course I met to Kevin Stefanski. Let me just point that out as well. I will speak to that. I don't think they get rid of zimmer Gil even if they get run out in this game. I just don't. I think they might make some other organizational changes. I even might take that they might. I know they paid Kirk Cousins all this money, um, but I think because it's more likely that Cousins is not there than than Zimmer. I do not think they're

going away from Zimmer. And in some strange way, I mean, I keep getting back to this point on the show this year, but in some strange way, it's it's it gets always gets back in the NFL economy to this point in these quarterbacks careers, which is a pretty recent development where it's like Kirk Cousins is up for a contract, Jared Goff is now Jamis Winston is and these teams are forced, probably prematurely, right before they really have all the evidence they need to throw eighty two a hundred

a hundred twenty million dollars at these guys to know if these are really guys that will get them to promised Land. And again it gets back, are you a Hall of Fame quarterback or are you on a rookie contract where you can pay everybody else? Ala Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. And I just like the Kirk Cousins thing, does it validate the Redskins for not having given him a long term contract? Well then you look at the

Redskins and they've got Dwayne Haskins. So I don't know, you know, it's like, Okay, well we didn't do that. But this is what we have here, and maybe it didn't work out for them, but you know, were the Rams right for paying Jared Golf all that money? What are the Buccaneers gonna do with Jamis Winston. I guess what I'm saying is I just don't think. I think the kirk Cousins things shows you where it's like, okay, you pay Tom maybe four million, but what did you

really get out of that. You've got flashes of kirk Cousins being great, and then you've got kirk Cousins, you know, sort of whiffing on big stages. We'll see what happens on Saturday or on Sunday. Rather, he could uh change the whole narrative here, I suppose Can I just say something real quick please? UM? I think something very important UM for gamblers to note is this Mike All did something that mark gamblers do, which is realize their wrongness.

Sometimes malleability in opinions is very important if you're gonna be a sucestical gambler. Because a lot of us, I'm sure everybody has had this experience. Get on the team because the team is either good or very bad, and we want to write it, and then all of a sudden things shift and they're really not as good or not as bad as we thought, and it's hard sometimes

to get off that that initial mindset. Now, Mikey, if me and Mike actually hosted your show UH numbers game when you were out a little bit, and I remember saying to Mike, Mike, I love everything you have to say usually, but I do not like your take on this Minnesota Vikings team back then. Um, and he was still high on the team at that point, but as you you heard him say, he doesn't like it anymore. And I think it's something important for all of us to note, or for for the new Gambler to note.

Don't get stuck on a team or stuck on a team being very bad or being very good. You have to be malleable in your opinion. Basically, don't be Ryan paid with the Bears. Don't be Ryan paced with the Bears. That's right. And by the way, Mr r Biskey given the endorsement for next year he's gonna be their starting

quarterback or Jerry Jones with the coach. Don't be Jared Jones. Well, by the way, Todd, let me just say this that sounded like a compliment towards Mike Palm, but quickly ended with you saying that you were right back then when you first brought it up one second. But I'm wrong all the time, and you've heard me say I'm wrong on the show, on the Megapod and and a numbers game. But it was a compliment to Mike. I do love to take shots at Mike and he loves to take

shots at me because we both like each other. But I had to give him credit there, because you know a lot of people would just, you know, go down with the ship and just say, hey, you know, no, Minnesota is great, and Minnesota is great, and even even when confronted with the obvious, you know, they they'll they'll stick to their guns. And I think too, And that's

why Mike is a successful gambler. Probably one of the reasons is he's willing to, you know, examine his thought process as I hope I am, and I hope both of you and Joe r as well. Well. I still believe r G three will lead the Redskins to a Super Bowl? So am I wrong about that? And I should like let go of that notion? Yet is that bad? I still think that r J three. R J three is one, and oh I believe lately he's pretty pretty

darned solid r G three as well. Yeah. No, we we used to have a megapodh staple that the year the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, he went to the end saying that they were a fraud team. It was just like it was so it was so ridiculous. As the year went on, You're like, yeah, I think you're He's like, maybe I'm missing something, and be like, yep, no, I think you are. I think you are missing something on the Seahawks. So you're right that Jil Jil. You

know this, this this Minnesota team. People don't think about this game as much, but the game that they beat David Blow seven at home, which should have really been a lot of red flags to people. I mean, in that game, David Blow couldn't throw the ball from from you to Todd in the studio there uh and and people cardy this dismissed that because they won by thirteen, and but it showed a lot of signs about their offensive line. They couldn't run the ball, Cousins had no rhythm.

And then that performance against the Packers I mean they got six first downs at home on a Monday night game where they still had the shot to get the five seat and put pressure on the Packers to maybe even win the division in a game at Detroit the next week that nobody thought would be close. But with life in depth, so um, their whole last quarter of the season has been abysmal. They made the Packers defense, who we were killing right week after week, looked like

the five Bears that night. Couldn't couldn't blog at all. Um. By the way, Dalvin Cook says he's at full strength for this game. Just want to update that. Uh, as far as these games, if I had had a guessing lines, I don't do guessing lines to beyond the regular season, but if I had guessing lines this week, I would have guessed Houston minus three versus Buffalo, because I don't think you could have made that anything else. That's where it open. It's minus two and a half. Now I

had New England minus four and a half. It's right around five. Now it's hovering. There has been hovering. I had New Orleans minus seven. I was low there, so it was it was a tick higher than seven. This is the game, right, here the fourth and final game where I had the wrong team favored. Initially I had Seattle favored. It came out Philadelphia minus one and a half. I believe it's now Seattle minus one and a half.

I actually it's it's probably consensus to now still consensus one and a half, but it's teetering on two now. Both of these teams are mash units. The biggest thing in this game is to to look at the injury report to see who's going to play. It looks like Davian Clowney is in for the Seahawks, so is Ziggy Anza on defense. Those are big for the Seahawks. We'll see if Philadelphia gets any of these guys back. DeShawn

Jackson is out. He will not play this week. He will play in a divisional round game if Philadelphia is fortunate enough to get by Seattle. But this is the one that I had the most wrong based on the initial line. Joe, your thoughts here on a five four game in the NFC, All right, so let's start with this. I'm a born and raised Philadelphia Eagles fans. I've got to get that out there, and I'm gonna come right

out and give you the pick um. I'm playing Seattle, and I gotta be honest about that, because I don't know if this is my internal my subconscious trying to tell me to emotionally head this so I come away with something in some regards, right, Like, I'm so twisted up by this game. Shouldn't listen to much of what I have to say. Here's here's what I'll tell you. I see a lot of people coming around on the Eagles, and I wonder why. I wonder why I love this team.

I'm happy they're in the playoffs. I'm so thrilled at the prospect that if they win this game, they'll play the Niners and will be right in my backyard. But I mean, honestly, they didn't beat shipped down the stretch. They didn't eat anybody. They won these four games that

everyone's talking about all it's four game winning streak. They beat the Giants twice, the Redskins, and the Cowboys, And as soon as Jerry Jones pulls the trigger, they'll have beaten three teams in four games that all fired their head coaches to end the season. Right, Like, It's not like they went out there and they went through and beat anyone great. They beat really bad teams and in the process they made it look really tough. And at

least two of those games the first two outs. Now you mentioned the injuries, but the ones you didn't mention. Brandon Brooks, the All Pro or the Pro Bowl offensive guard. He injured his shoulder last week. He's out for this game. Miles Sanders is battling and ankle injury. And zach Ertz may not play. And I know he's around in practice, he's getting what they're calling mental reps. But he's got

a lacerated kidney and a fractured riff. So sure, maybe he's gonna go out there and play, but he's not gonna be the zach Ertz that led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. And that's a huge blow because these guys don't have any receivers. They didn't have a single receiver record more than four nine receiving yards this year. That's all Sean Jeffrey. He's not playing in this game either. So Carson Wentz has done an amazing job. But the

old lines banged up. Most of your running backs are hurt. You've got no receivers, your top pass catching options hurt. And what people will say as well, you know, Seattle hurt who they are, they are at the running back position. But you're not gonna run against Philly anyway. They're a top five run defense. If Seattle's plan was to come into Philadelphia and run the ball with anyone other than Russell Wilson, I got news for you. You're gonna lose

that game. This comes down the Russell Wilson. He's got healthy wide receivers and while Seattle's defense is questionable, Um, this is just such a messy game. I'm really just betting on one guy. I'm looking at Russell Wilson. The fact that there's seven and one on the road this season, I think they're what five one and one against the spread on the road this season, They've done really well. They've made five. This is gonna be their sixth trip to the Eastern time zone this year. Six trips the

previous five they played Philly, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Carolina, Atlanta. They want all of them. Um. And here's another note, and I'm gonna throw this out there because I find it fascinating, But it's a trend that I'm sure a lot of people say it doesn't matter, and I'm not saying it

does matter. I just find this fascinating. Teams coming off the game this year against the Niners, right, play the Niners and then play the next week, No boys, those teams are a elevan one and one against the spread, eleven one and one. I got a feeling that the Niners are the Niners came into this season and no one thought of them as much better than eight and eight or nine and seven, and because they took the

league by storm. When they're hammering these teams, it's giving us the perception that the teams they're beating up aren't as good. But it turns out those teams, it's not like those teams are bad teams. They're just getting beat by a team we don't think it is good. And I think maybe that perception is having an effect the

way people bet the following week. And then for some reason, these teams are having an advantage because they're eleven one and one against the spread the week after playing the Niners this year. So again, not a game I love, And there's a lot of bias and a lot of mental mumbo jumbo going on in my head to this game, but I would play Seattle. Seattle is the play on making. Yeah, I I bet the Niners by the way to win

the NFC and plus money the other day. Uh, hammered that one because I really do like the Niners to get out of the NFC. I agree with pretty much everything you just said, Joe, and I don't you know, your Philadelphia Eagles defeatism reminds me of my Washington Redskins defeatism, although your team is actually pretty good. Um, but we don't put those two in the same category. Don't ever do that again. Yeah, I'm sorry. Lane Johnson another one

we didn't mention. He took a few plays yesterday and walked through not sure of his status for the Eagles. And it deserves to be mentioned that the last time these two teams played, although the score was only Seattle seventeen and nine, Seattle kind of dominated them. So I'm with you there, Mike gil This is uh, this is a game that I have to go back to the first game, and um, you know, both teams are less healthy than they were the first game offensively for sure,

especially with Seattle. I mean, remember this was Richard Penny's breakout game in the NFL. Yes, this is where he exploded. I mean he had two long runs that were essentially the only offense in the whole game for either side. With two minutes to go, Seattle just dropped their their dvs twenty yards off the line and played Nickel and let Philly have a touchdown drive that ended the game. And it finished seventeen to nine. Now the total comes

back forty six. Now, I may have made more money on this game than any other in the NFL all year. I never stopped in gaming the under um and in this game from the first quarter on, and I could not believe it comes back forty six. I really thought this game would be right around forty maybe forty and a half. I have to play the under here as far as the side goes, I can't pull the trigger on Seattle. Yes, I agree with you, Joe, who has Philadelphia beaten the least of the East right that this

whole home stretch. But I'm still I still have to give credit to Wins and to Peterson for his banged up they were and playing guys like Boston Scott that we don't know anything about. That they have been relatively effective on offense enough at least to win these games. I thought their defensive performance against the Cowboys, I mean, scoring ten points in the first quarter, basically that game was over. Yes, was Dak hurt? Was he was? He banged up a little bit. Uh, we taught. They talked

about it all going into the game. But still to hold the Cowboys to to to you know, without a touchdown for four quarters was impressive to me. So it's really hard to choose a side. I just I'm not with everybody that's that this should be a Seattle game, so I have to go with just strictly the under. I always remember what Troy Aikman said after that Eagles Cowboys game where he was just gushing over the Eagles,

you know, in a mass unit winning that game. He said, quote maybe the best team win I've ever seen given the stakes unquote, which I thought was certainly hyperbole like that was he was, he was impressed. But to your point, not only you know, even in that victory they scored seventeen total points. But as Todd, I'm sure we'll tell you here momentarily, and Todd, forgive me for stealing your thunder if you were going with this, that four game

winning streak. Think just as easily lost two of those, right, like the Redskins were driving or the Redskins probably should have won that game. I know they lost by two scores and lost against the spread because that Dwayne Askins nonsense on the final play. But that game was nip and tuck and the Giants. The first Giants game, they were down two touchdowns at halftime. Todd apologize if I still thunder with that, I no, I mean that everything everybody has said here I agree with. I'm in total

agreement with Joe that they did not beat anyone. The Philadelphia Eagles are not a good football team. They lost a two touchdown lead on the road at Miami. Okay, Um, the Eagles have done again everything. They're pulling out every stop to squeak by these teams they have, you know, that are not good. The Redskins are obviously not good. The Giants they're down two touchdowns in the second half too, and even last week they were life and death in the third quarter in a tie game against the Giants.

So I am not at all, uh, you know, impressed with the Eagles. Maybe it's because they're all injured. Maybe it's whatever. The bottom line is, they're not a good football team now. Seattle, I I like, I got. I started to get concerned with them when they got beaten up by Arizona two games ago, and in the first half against San Francisco when they were just horrendous and

it was thirteen nothing at the half. But the second half by Russell Wilson in last week's game, you know, makes me think, okay, all is right with the world again. And if you watch the first Seattle Philadelphia game, as I did intently, as I had the Eagles plus ten on one of my ten point teasers, I was so lucky that the final score was seventeen to nine in that game, because it was seventeen to three the entire game, which twenty seconds left. The Eagles got a touchdown at

the way end. But and Seattle literally could have won that game thirty four to three easily, easily. So to me, you know, the Eagles have had a tough year. It's been it hasn't been a typical you know Eagles from the last couple of years. A year, and they're just not a good team. And Seattle, to me, you've got Russell Wilson. You just have to win the game. That's all they gotta do. Just win the game. I think

they're gonna win the game. I think you're right, and and it is taking nothing away from the Eagles who have you know, Sprawls Jackson, Jeffrey Malik Jackson, Jordan how Nelson, aguilor Lane Johnson. I mean, I'm forgetting guys that are you know, that have been knocked out this year, and Carson Wentz has been spectacular down the stretch, So there's you're taking nothing away from them. But in the end,

I don't think they have enough either. Support for today's beating the Book podcast comes as always from our friends at bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu, as an industry leader for close to thirty years, you should know that by now pro players consider them a must because their first to post outs, they take the highest limits and most importantly, pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player. That is huge in this day and age.

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three hundred dollars. Once again, that's Bookmaker dot eu slash gill g I l L. To join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars right now, don't miss out as we go at at these games. Now the final questions, guys, well, let's start with the teaser first, the teaser question. If you had to play one two team six point teaser, what two teams would you play? Joe min New Orleans, without question knocked that one from eight down to two. I agree with a

lot of what what Mike said earlier. If I just had to make a play on the side in this game, I'd be more inclined to play the Saints then I would the Vikings. And obviously this move puts you through seven, it puts you through four, it puts you through three down to two, So I think that's a relatively safe side. And then I'd matched that up with Buffalo going the

other way. So even at two and a half, you're going through three, four, seven, and you get it up to eight and a half, what many of your saying is gonna be a lower scoring game. I lean up to the over obviously in that game, but I would say my tease would be Buffalo in New Orleans. I think that's the obvious one, but that's the one I feel stage just with Yep. I think that's mine to

Buffalo New Orleans. If I was getting frisky, I might even do a three teamer and put Tennessee in there, But Buffalo New Orleans would be my answer for the two teamer. Mike, I'm gonna go with the Saints and the and the Titans. I'll take the Saints down to two, and I'll tell I just don't know, maybe Houston will play very well in that game against Buffalo. UM. So if I had to choose, I'd rather take Tennessee up to eleven and then take Buffalo up to eight and

a half. I don't hate it, Todd, I'm gonna go with the the one. U. It seems like we're all very interested in which is the Buffalo up to eight and the Saints down to two. Uh, to me, it just seems too too good. Okay, real quick, obviously that's the normal question that I that I asked here. Which of the big favorites is the most likely to lose?

Out right is not exactly applicable, So I'll just make it into which of the dogs do you think is the most likely or which of the favorites, Just to put it in the same sort of terms, which of the favorites of any kind here of the four games do you think it's the most likely to lose outright? Houston, New England, New war Lands or Seattle? Joe. Uh, that's Oh, that's a good one. That's a good one. I guess my first lean there was to go with, um, was

to go with I don't losing that game. But to tell you the truth, that is Houston, I would say Houston. I think Buffalo is gonna be a formidable challenge. I think it was Todd that was talking about it earlier. When it comes to gill Obrian, this Houston team. There's a reason the a f C South always gets the first wild card games. It's because nobody has any faith in those teams and quite frankly, no one wants to watch them. Every year the first wild card game, and

it's almost always the Texans. In fact, one year was actually Houston Indianapolis. You've got two a f D teams a FC South teams in the first game. But they do this for a reason. And Buffalo is not sexy. But Buffalo does a couple of things that you need to do to be able to win on the road, and that's play defense and run the ball. They can play some really good defense and they can run the football. Josh Allen worries me, but that's I'm gonna be the

least bit surprised if Houston ends up losing that game. Yeah, I think it's Houston for me too. And you're right about the a f C South thing. Indianapolis just destroyed Houston last year. Houston has success in these games when Cincinnati's on the other side of the field. That's who they love to put in these games. Mike, same question. I think it's Seattle. Um, I can't do. You know what I can't get out of my head the fact that in the second half in Week sixteen, Brett Hunley

moved the ball and scored points against that defense. Brett Hunley let couldn't win a game when Rogers was out for years. He couldn't cover a game. They were never competitive. The guy was awful. I kept saying, why does he getting these backup jobs? He went up and down the field against the Seahawks. I think Philly can win this game. Wow, Todd, you know what, I'm gonna say something crazy. I'm going against Bill Bellichick. I really think, I really that this

is not the same story. This reminds me of the year they they and it's even worse, actually, but it reminds me a little bit of the year they went to Enver with Peyton Manning couldn't even throw the ball and they lost twenty to fifteen in the playoffs. But I think it's even worse now. I don't think that losing the game to Miami at home when you're a seventeen point favorite, and the way they had to beat

the Bills that Bill's game. He was doing everything he could to come up with a way to figure out how to beat the Bills. I think he can lose the game out right. I know it's it's a crazy thing to think that that Bill Belichick could lose a playoff game at home. And you know, I'll the first one to say Bill Beltchick is amazing. But I mean you put a guy with no talent at the receiver position. I mean they were startgling on offense against the Dolphins.

Cincinnati Bengal scored two touchdown forty seconds against the Dolphins. I mean, give me a break. They might lose this game. Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying it, but I really think they could lose it. No, I'm I'm betting Tennessee on the money line as well, in a condition to a t S. But then you know I always I wait a beat and then I go cut to a shot of us Monday morning. You know, just like we're assholes we bet against Bell and Jake. But I'm with you.

I'm with you. I I New England. I'm I'm betting against New England against the spread. But I still would say Houston against Buffalo. I still would say Houston. But I don't disagree with your opinion either. On that final question here, let's say you had to bet a side on three out of the four of these you were forced to. What's the game you want no part of? Joe on the side. That would be that would probably that'd be Tennessee New England. As I'm confident with Buffalo.

I'm confident with Buffalo, I go ahead and play Seattle like I talked about earlier, and if it comes down to the other two, I probably Like with Mike earlier, he laid out a lot of great points. I just I'd lay the eight with New Orleans knowing that they're playing really well. And I've seen Kirk Cousins just I tried to defend Kirk Cousins at Nauseam this year. I tried to play him in that game at Seattle and

he played well, but we ended up losing. And then I played him in the game against Green Day on Monday night and he played terrible. It's like, if he can't get it done, someone around him lets him down, and if if everyone else around him is playing well,

he can't handle it. Like whatever it is, you're going into New Orleans, like of all places, if they were going and I know this can't possibly have him, but like they were going to Houston, like that would be the type of situation where I'd say, all right, I could see Minnesota finding a way to look sharp in this game. But New Orleans they get behind early, then

it's on Cousins. So there's a moment with Kirk Cousins that I cannot get out of my mind, and it makes you wonder why I continue to bet on him after this moment. It was in the game against Kansas City when they went against Matt Moore and they lost that game. At the end of the first half, the Vikings drove the ball down the field. They got inside

the twenty. They were up against the clock, and they basically had it figured out where they had three plays at the end zone and then they'd have to kick. They had enough time, and on all three plays Cousins airmailed that ball out of the end zone. If you if you were watching this game and you were betting this game in any capacity on Minnesota, you were staring at Cousins, you could tell he wanted no part in possibly throwing an interception at the end of the half.

He was going out of his way to play for the field goal. There were that were open, there were pro throws that could have been made, but he wanted nothing to do with the scenario. There's something about that guy that when the moment calls upon him, he just isn't there. It's too much for him to handle. And New Orleans is the wrong place to be if that's the scenario. So I would say, if there was one game to stay away from, sidewise, I'm probably staying away

from New England. Tennessee. These are all my Kirk Cousins talking points when he was a member of the Redskins. He can get stats, but in crunch time, when the decisions are the most important, he is not your guy. So Tennessee, New England is the one that Joe would steer claar of Mike. Uh. For me, it's the Buffalo Houston game, because I just I still think Houston can be really good. I still think they have so much talent. I'm with Todd, I don't I don't love Bill O'Brien. Um,

but I can't bet that game pre flop. I can bet bet the other three. I'll just add this, Joe. You know, the last time Kirk Cousins made a pass to win a game was the Hail Mary against Russell Wilson in East Lansing. In East Lansing, I remember it like it was anything but yet, um my answer to both of these questions is the same. The favorite I think is most likely to lose that right is is

Houston just do an avoid favorite and the game. I would want no part of his Buffalo Houston because, as I said at the beginning, I could see such a disparate outcomes in this game, Todd, I think that New Orleans I don't want to get I was when Joe's city like the over and I said I was leaning

to the under. I'm thinking that Minnesota cannot afford to get behind in this game and play from the chase mode, and that the thing was in the back of my head was, well, what if they get behind and have to play from chase mode, which is exactly what Joe said,

and that would be dangerous. The only thing is, the reason I still kind of leaned to the under on that game was because I could see Minnesota just laying a complete egg and like they did against the Packers and not being able to score more than thirteen points, and then it could still go under even if New

Orleans explodeste or something like that. So I don't want any part of this game because there's still a part of me that thinks that um Zimmer might just do everything in his power to slow this game down, trying to keep it tight, and so that's why I don't really want to play this game at all. All right, boys, we've done all we can do. Mikey Todd, thank you as always. We'll do the division round next week. Joe foreign Baugh Joe my man. Uh. The longest tenured Megapod

guests there ever was Um. We appreciate it as always. Thank you, man. I appreciate you doing it. It It was not at a desperation, it was because you were the guy I wanted. Congratulations on everything with Joe Low and Dims and of course at daily Wager Man, thank you for doing this. The pleasures, oh my Gil, it's it's the one thing I love the most about coming on with all these years, whether it was the earlier version of this version. I'm learning so much. I'm literally and

I'm not lying when I say this. I take notes when I'm listening to everyone, but you, I don't really care what you have to say. Like the other guys. I'm always taking notes because I know I'm gonna learn something and I'm gonna pick up some buggets. So thank you to you guys. And kill as well. You're you're a real men's thank keep rabbing me on. Thank you Joe, and thank you for going Yiddish for Joe, for Mike, for Todd, kill alexand thank you so much for listening.

Good luck with all your bets this wild card we get at the NFL