Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Wild Card Round 2019

Good morning, Marco, Ama donna too. I was introducing Marco to our esteemed guest today as a prima donna, and uh that was completely accurate of me, if I if I may just say so, so, uh no, it's the one day of the year that I we had to rebook on a Wednesday, and so Marco has busy Wednesday. So apparently Marco has to get out of here at a certain time. On my left, out of the sports betting diaspora. Still looking for the Kansas City Chiefs to fall flat on their face. It's a alright, yeah, they've

already fallen. Every time they stepped up in competition, they got slapped back down. I don't understand this say they three times they stepped up, all three times they got slapped New England Rams. May I remind you, I think you beat up on the Raiders a couple of times. You would look at that schedule that they've had come on. I granted now they have a road. Hopefully they make it to the super Bowl. So they run into the New Orleans Saints or a team like that. We know

what happens when they faced the elite. We've already seen it happened throughout the season. So please let's be our best behavior today. Gentlemen. It is a special show because today the winner of our year long score X Beating the Book podcast pool contest is on the show. Uh. He ended up with forty point one percent profit. Forty one percent profit went by the tag profitable, not spelled et but profitable, sort of a melding of profit and profit if you will, profit as in the seer and

profit as in money being made. Beat His next closest competitor, Liam Converse, who we've interacted with on Twitter for many years. Liam Converse thirty five point nine percent, So quite a gap in the end between profitablest percent and Liam Conversus thirty five point nine percent. Shout out to Jay Bags or Jay Biggs. It is I don't know how you pronounced that. Thirty five point six percent. He thought he

might be able to get the crown. Those are the top three tops left MeV kids, fourth and fifth, but it is profitable. His name is Gregg Deeter from Rochester, New York. And what's your Twitter? Greg Tweeter underscore Deeter one correct, Welcome to the show. Really appreciate you doing this in congratulations. Thanks seeing Marco a spill. Thanks for me on the show today. It is a huge pleasure. Big fan of the podcast, been listening for quite some time.

I think it's the best sports scambling podcast out there. So really just throw down the opportunity to be here and talk about some wild card games with you guys. You're very kind to say that we appreciate it. Let me just ask you before we get into the games. Forty one percent profit. This is the stock market thing that I've been talking about for years on the show. What would you say if you could distill it into I don't know, just a brief sort of synopsis. What

was your strategy? Was there any general strategy that you could even fall back on or was it just the fact that you ended up picking good teams to get in on and get out of at the right times. Uh? Yeah, I mean there were definitely a couple of things that I consistently reminded myself throughout the season to remain disciplines. Uh, basically looking at markets from a value standpoint, understanding that the one thing that we do know about the market

is that this gonna fluctuate. And kind of maybe this is a markoism that I've learned over the years from following you guys. Are there no teams ever gonna look as good as they do with their best and no teams really as bad as they look at their worst

unless you're talking about the Jaguars this year. But really just trying to make profitable trades rather than necessarily looking at it teams for the whole season, and kind of balancing the cash balance or the buying power with the amount of teams that I'm invested in so that I could be flexible. Marco, he won the score X podcast pool by employing some of your marco is ms. How does that make you feel? That makes me warm and fuzzy for sure, Mark Marco might even stick around for

an extra five minutes because of that. Today, that's how good that feels. That's great. Um, were you worried at all? Greg? Towards the end, I noticed that with about three weeks left, two weeks left, your gap, your your margin in terms of the distance between you and the second place player, shrunk a little bit. Did you get worried at any point there? Yeah, it was a little worried. I felt the pressure coming, you know, when you were updating the

standings weekly, So I felt a little pressure there. But actually with a few weeks left, I was moving a lot into cash, So I was selling out of a lot of my positions because this was the big prize here, getting on the podcast with you guys. So I wanted to make sure that I held the regular season lead. And I was almost at about se and just free cash, not invest in any teams at that point, so kind of rebalancing. Do you have a Wall Street background at all? No?

But actually so uh, I work in real estate, so familiar with the real estate market. In the last two years, I've actually gotten super interested in the financial markets. So I've spent some time trying to do my best to learn about that. Crazy world. Um see, definitely a lot of carry over from the different markets. UH used to to gamble a little bit, you know, as an amateur on sports, and it really is interesting to carry over that you see between the different markets. So bringing a

market perspective to the NFL season was pretty awesome. I'm glad it was a great experience for you. Really impressive. Again, that's at the score X. The score X is an app. It's this secret stock market thing that I've been talking about for years on the show, our first foray into

making it into a public thing. What was the team that was the most profitable for you, would you say, during the season, And what was the team or teams And maybe maybe this is not even the proper question, but what was the team that threatened to sort of

derail you at any point? It's hard to say who I made, you know, the most headway with, because really each team I was kind of in and out of probably throughout the season, almost every team, but I'd say the Eagles teams that you saw some of those ups and downs, trying to stay level headed and by when the price was right and so when when I saw things getting a little overvalued and certainly in terms of getting derailed early on. I lost quite a bit of

money on the Jaguars. Uh. And something to maybe learned from that is kind of your first loss can be your best loss. So really getting out of them when they were just sliding down, not waiting for it to possibly bounce back, because apparently things did just get worse for them. It's fascinating. The first year I did it, I lost. You know. The first year I won a little,

and then the second year I lost. And I remember telling those who ran it, I was like, you know what, I learned more losing than I did my winning year. And the third year I made out like gangbusters and I was the number one player. Good for you, congratulations. Let's talk some wild Card games, Greg, and let's begin

with the first game chronologically on Saturday. I'm not sure we've ever seen a better five six combination than the Chargers and the Colts in the a f C. Let's started that with the number six seeded Colts against the number three seeded Houston Texans. These two teams finished one game apart in the a f C. South Texans win the division. Colts, though a tremendous well both of these

teams really a tremendous trajectory to their season. The Texas won the a f C South after winning eleven of thirteen. They started out oh and three. They end up winning eleven of thirteen. The Colts start one in five, win nine of ten. The line here is one now in favor of the Houston in Texans. It did open at three. It's interesting in both of these Saturday games. And we'll get to the Seahawks and Cowboys in a bit, but

both of these started at three. There's a lot of love here for the road teams, almost to the point now. And I did tease all the road teams that are three point dogs are in that in that neighborhood, the Chargers being the other one on Sunday. But it just seems to me that in these Saturday games, Houston and Dallas getting so little love, just anecdotally from people around me. In fact, I haven't heard one person that I know

say they like the Texans in this game. I'm curious if you think the pendulum has swung too much on this game. How do you feel? Total here now the highest on the board of forty nine. This got up to forty nine at Pinnacle this morning. Colts and Texans. Greg, we start with you, sir, all right, well, thanks for having me to start off. And really this is the game where I kind of had the weakest feel for. I feel like these two teams, as you said, they're trajectories.

I was looking at Indie winning nine of their last time, Houston winning love and of the last thirteen after starting going three. So really two teams who have been getting it done in the win lost column recently. But looking back at their seasons, there are two games that they played earlier, both decided by three points, and for that reason, I actually am on the Houston team, UM, and I

saw the total at forty seven and a half. It must have been a little earlier in the week, so I was looking at over that total, UM, but taking the home team just based on the value there and understanding that this game could really go either way. Interesting in the sense that the Colts got here Sunday night they knew they couldn't win the division at that point when and they were in the playoffs. They knew that much.

Marcus Mariotta, by the way, just side note for the Titans ends up not having surgery on neck or foot issues. It almost to me, seems like he's getting a free pass, like we'd kill other quarterbacks for not having played in that game. Mike Vrabel, Titans head coach, looked a little uncomfortable talking about it afterwards. Looks like he was a little annoyed. Nonetheless, Colts get it done. Sort of kept the Titans in the game with a signature Andrew Luck pick.

That was a pick six that kept the Titans in after the Colts had taken a fourteen and nothing lead. But really, if you look at that game, utter domination in fact at one point and I'm trying to find the exact number here. By the way, the the the Achilles for the Colts, they were flagged twelve times for

ninety six yards in that game. They got to clean that up, but Luck ended up shredding a Tennessee defense that came in as the NFL's number two scoring defense gave up just eighteen points a game and six against the past, but they were without a couple of defensive players Drell Casey Brian Racbo, who subsequently retired. That more than made up for the Colts loss of their center Ryan Kelly. So the Colts are in they are a live dog, and they are a team, the proverbial team

that no one wants to face. Well, you know, I agree nobody wants to face them because Andrew Luck's having a sensational season. We didn't know what to expect from Andrew Luck, coming in off of missing an entire season, a new coaching regime, everything going there. Nobody figured the Colts would be as good as they were. And as you pointed out nine and one to finish the season out,

what's been the bigger surprise to me? One? You know, in any other season, the numbers that Lux put up this year, he would be, you know, considered an m v P type season. But you've got a season where you got my homes and breathe what they've done and then throw in rivers and you know, you forget about him. But this has been an incredible year for him. But what I'm surprised about with the Colts is the biggest surprises the defense. This is a team that you know,

come in never known for their defense. Number ten this season in points allowed at twenty one point five, in number thirteen in yards per play. Uh, that has been the biggest improvement I've seen on this team and makes you wonder just really how bad you know the previous coach with Pegano really was Houston on the flip side, guys eleven and two. As you said, those two losses both were by three and two points, we're kind of

hard to ignore them. I agree with you Gil that the uh teaser here on Indianapolis looks like the only way to go. I see this as a tight game. The total's gone up from forty seven to forty nine. I think there's value in the ender because as surprising as Indianapolis's defense has been, Houston has a good defense as well. They're number four and points allowed at nineteen point seven and number nine at yards per play. Given this is a playoff game, both of the first two

games were close. UH you had you know the first game, uh if you remember that when that was the overtime game and the crazy decision by Frank Wright to uh go in the you know give basically give us in that game. I think the enders the play I will have teasers on Indie, but I think the safer bet in this game is under forty nine. I think you're just see a little more conservative of the game plan. UH in this one, that playoff atmosphere, and I just

think forty nine is too high. The public's looking to the two scores, and you know, you say, Andrew Luck, you automatically think offense. I think the values in the under Yeah, Warren sharp on numbers game on Visa this morning with me leaned under on this game as it was rising during the show to Pinnacle. You bring up

a great point. I am contractually obligated to mention that that first game, obviously, if frank Reich doesn't go for it there and they end up with a tie, frank Wich going for it in their own territory against the Texans, Texans then stopping the play, needing only one play to get themselves in the field goal position to win that game in overtime. But if there's a tie in that game, the Colts win the division and not the Texans. Obviously,

that's a lot of ifs between then and now. But if you just change that one outcome, that's what happens, and those of us who have eight to one Colts winning the a f C South tickets would have cashed. No bitterness there. But that brings up a point about Houston the Ways, which is It wasn't only that game.

Phrase that I've used for the texts is all year long is that they had Jedi mind tricked other coaches, Frank Reich into going forward in his own territory, and over time the next week getting Jason Garrett to punt in overtime in Texans territory. There was a game against the Bills which they had no business winning, which they gotta pick six on late and then a subsequent pick uh. There was the Vance Joseph game where Vance Joseph decided to kick a sixties some yard field goal late in

the first half. Again, the Texans turned that right into a field goal of their own. They ended up winning the game by less than a field goal. There were so many instances of that for the Texans this year, and I'm leaving out a couple where it was as if the other coach was under a spell the opposing coach. So it's been a magical year in that respect for the Texans. It does, then, though, follow that you would say to yourself, all right, playoff game. They are facing

a team like the Colts. These are obviously the teams, as we mentioned, that have come in on the biggest runs into the playoffs. What are you buying here? Or is this a game that if it were in the middle of a regular Sunday you would You're clear of entirely real quickly, I just want to throw out there, I have not placed a single bet on any of these NFL wild Card games, and where four days away from the Sunday game. So I just don't want to hear all you you like Dallas and you gave alt

Seattle is your biggest beg. You're giving us both sides to scam us. I don't want to hear that ship. I'm just telling you now, I haven't placed a bet, but I can tell you what I like right now. And more importantly, I wanted to add be very very very cautious reading into line moves in the playoffs early on, because I can tell you this from experience over the last three or four seasons, every single group that I provide accounts for has never been a playoff game prior

to the weekend. Into the real accounts, and what I mean by that is when I get on screen accounts, if someone can to me an account that's a cris account, a Penny accounts, something like that that's on screen. I don't even take a percentage of those. I don't want anything to do with those. I hand those off because I know I ainty percent of the ship they put in there is all dummy plays, all little middles they

worked and everything to try to manipulate the market. Almost nothing real goes in those accounts, and I don't want to try to guess, so I don't even take a percentage of those. So be very cautious as far as line movements go. Granted, they get out ahead of the market on a lot of these moves, but with that said, the real positions, the strong ones that the sides they're really taking and not just taking picking off numbers come later, believe it or not. And it makes sense because a

lot of these lines get knocked down a rank. There's so much public money involved. Now with Indianapolis Houston, you're gonna get good two way action for the books. It's gonna be interesting to see if the Bettingston gets actually do get involved, because it does look like they took Indianapolis. But I can tell you I saw nothing to support that other than taking the right side of the plus three expecting this line to go down um and getting

out ahead of that move. That's all they did. And the reason for that is these two teams play very tight. If you look over the last six times, only one game was it, you know, by more than six points was the final outcome. They know each other well, they play each other extremely tight. It's usually a coin toss at the end um and so it kind of makes sense to get the best sign of the three. But I wouldn't to consider that a real position. But I

do agree there with Marco. Also, you know that line's going up as far as the over, but I would not conclude out that's they're just steaming that over, you know, and expect a lot of points. Finally, I made my line for this game Houston two and a half, so you know it's right at that number. I honestly don't really see much value either way. I would have to get information that to push me on one direction or another, So I don't want to take up you know, more

of the listeners times. I really know this game's a coin toss, man, and I think the numbers where it should be okay makes sense. I will tell people that the only thing that I did um so far is when the Seahawks and the Chargers were both at three re at bookmaker, I immediately seven point teased them both, so I got the Seahawks and the Chargers plus ten. I did make a bet on the Chargers as well

at plus three. That's what I've done so far. I usually start out the wild Card show every year, gentlemen, and I kind of buried this uh this year, but I'll mention it now, which is that typically during the regular season, not typically, but by the numbers since night, as far as the databases go back, the spread matters just seventeen percent of the time, so roughly eighty two point eight percent of the time, nearly eighty three percent of the time underdogs win outright or favorites win and

cover in the process, so only seventeen percent of the time do favorites win but not cover. In the playoffs, that number of seventeen percent where the spread actually matters decreases, and in wild card weekend it's at its lowest eighty nine point eight percent of the time, so almost nine percent of the time, nine out of ten times, the

spread does not matter. So if you pick a winner, in other words, you'll more than likely win anyway, So the spread becomes immaterial now as it so happens on Saturday. We have one spread that's down to as low as one in certain spots on the Colts and the Texans.

Same thing with the Seattle Dallas game. So, to use the French phrase, it's fatal complee that that wild card staff that I just gave is gonna manifest anyway on Saturday in both games might very well happen in the two and a half points read one on the Chargers in Baltimore as well. So it's already baked into it this week, if you will this game between Seattle and Dallas,

Marco will start with you here. Dallas inexplicably Jason Garrett, he does rest Zeke, and he does rest a couple offensive lineman, but Dak plays the whole game against the Giants, and they beat the Giants in dramatic fashion on a deck to Cole Beasley touchdown. What a catch by Beasley it was. I did wonder the watching that game, how curious of a decision that was It worked out for Dallas. Vander Esh got a shin bruise, could have been worse, could have really been an egg on the face of

the Cowboys. But it was very peculiar because the Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl. It was the weirdest thing in the world. Had no bearing on their number four seed here in the NFC. They get it done, by the way, it should be mentioned because no one else is. They also improved the Giants draft position and weakened there's in the process side note, but that was curious for sure. Seattle, on the other hand, they just have to beat Arizona. They're in the playoffs anyway, so

it's just a seeding situation for Seattle. They barely squeaked by the Cardinals. Now this is Seattle at Dallas. Parton barcel with what I was saying earlier about Indianapolis Houston. How I'm wondering if there's just a little too much love on these road dogs. Home road splits is something that I've talked about all year. Seattle's four and four on the road straight up. Dallas was seven and one straight up at home. By the way, Indianapolis same thing,

four and four on the road. Houston was six and two straight up at home. Home road splits have never been more relevant than they are this year. How do you see this game and let me just mention the total here is at forty three. Now this open at forty one a half, got all the way up to forty four. I had Crackenburger and Sharp on my show on Visa this morning. They are were all about the over and now it's come down to forty two and a half at Pinnacle, So it's a chance to bet

it over again. If you are so inclined. How do you feel about this game? Marco well um in different on the total, but the side here, I do think Seattle is getting too much love in this game. Uh, we know what Seattle and this has been an incredible job. And honestly, Pete Carroll should have consideration for a Coach of the Year with what he's done with the roster. You go back to week one and you look at the roster that they put out there to what they

had before. It was a skeleton of what they had. And for him to get this team to the playoffs, uh, credit him and credit Russell Wilson for putting this team on their back. But you look at what they're doing and what they've done is this is a team that you know is living with the ground game. They led league at a hundred and sixty yards per game. Uh, running the football, now what that do? Well? That improves their defense because their defense is not on the field

for as many plays. When you can control the clock in time of possession like that, also, you know it wears teams down. But I look at the competition at Seattle's played this year, and I really believe they have faced one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. These two met early in the season. You've got to completely throw that game out because Dallas was not the roster that they are now. And what was different were out one player and how one player changed everything on this

team on all sides of the football. When they added Amari Cooper, it increased the running game for z Kelliott because now they've got to respect the pass. They also it gives Dak somebody to throw to. It improved Dax game. Also improved the defense because now this offense was staying on the field longer. Teams were, you know, daring them to throw the football, and if they clogged it up and they had a three and out, that defense was right back out there. That's not the case anymore. I

like the Cowboys in this spot. Uh Dallas is the best defense that Seattle will have faced in the last eight weeks. Uh Dallas is good against the run. I think they can slow down this hundred and sixty yard per game offensive Seattle. And then Russell Wilson, which I'm not saying he can't because this guy is amazing, would have to carry the team with his arm and with his legs, and that's always a possibility. But I like Dallas and I think that moved by Jason Garrett last week.

I just think he wants to keep winning attitude going. Um. You saw what happened last year with the Rams, took the last week off and then they couldn't turn it back on in their first playoff game. I think the coaches, some of the you know guys are seeing that and staying with momentum. Because if you look and when we get to the Charger game, I was just pulling what little hair I had out left that the Chargers had their players in as late as they did when Kansas

City was you know, just blowing out the Raiders. So I'm on Dallas here. Uh. But I do think that you know, getting it to you know, over the touchdown as far as the teaser obviously is attractive based on the history of these two teams playing close games and the fact that we're looking at a very low total. Yeah, I mean, that's what I did. And you're right. The Patriots Bill Belichick, Tom Brady was in there against the Jets. They were up big in that game, kept him in.

I just, I'm just tired of this whole like Neanderthal CE defense, B defense, CE offense, stop offense. It's almost as if a scoreboard and a and a and a clock doesn't exist with some of these games, and there's no tactical thinking just to put in a college game the Ohio State you dubbed Rose Bowl yesterday, Ohio State wouldn't run the play clock below fifteen seconds and they were running plays yesterday within six minutes like six different times.

Like is there any thought of context, any thought of winning a football game? And then, by the way, Chris Peterson calls time out in punts, Ohio State comes back throws an incomplete pass just to stop the clock. Hey, in case you messed up yourself, we'll help you out anymore. Like, I just I can't take it anymore with coaches. I almost think we give everybody too much credit the way they coach these games. It's just a brain dads. Anyway, just meet ranting me. You're trying to tell me I

didn't have the right side with Washington yesterday. By the way I should measure, Cowboys won their seventh and eight games when they beat the Giants, so they're on a seven and one streak headed in the postseason. And the Seahawks, Uh, despite having trouble with the Cardinals, they win their six, the sixth and their final seven games they head into the postseason. Ace your thoughts here. Yeah, and I made Seattle. Actually I thought Seattle should go in favored in the Dallas.

You know, it's football favor maybe about a one point favor. But I did not see why Dallas would would come out um as the favorite. But more importantly, it got beat up the two and a half. Um That to me was a little bit surprising. Here's what I don't like about Dallas. Actually, what I've seen the last couple of weeks, and that's not running the football. I mean the last three weeks. Twenty two rushes against Indianapolis, twenty four against Tampa, twenty two against the New York Giants.

That's not Dallas football. UM. On the flip side, Seattle has been They've changed everything, and I think he got a credit Brian Schottenheimer for all of that. He has saved Wilson's career. This year marks his lowest pass attempts four seven, his fewest since the second year he was in the league, and then on Tampa that he's only rushed for a career low sixty seven attempts. UM. Usually you think that's a bad thing because they depend on Russell Wilson so much, but it's everyone else has had

to step up. And the one running back no one's talking about is Chris Carson. I mean six games with a hundred plus rushing yards. Only other guys to do that Barkley, Elliott, Girlie and James Conner. And yet Carson is a guy no one's talking about. UM. I really do think this Seattle teams better than actually they're getting credit for. UM, we're Dallas. On the flip side, you know, listen, I'm I wasn't all that impressed with Dallas from the

beginning of the year. If you look at all their wins, UM, they were all coin flips. I mean, everything was a one possession win pretty much. You look over the last six seven weeks, Uh, you know they haven't been blowing anyone out. Um So, for me, I think Seattle could stay in this game from start to finish. I agree you throw out that that September game, it means nothing, but the way they've been protecting the football, only four turnovers over the last eight weeks, never more than one

in a game. You do that, you win football games. Man. It doesn't matter who you play. I just like the way Seattle's playing right now. Again, I haven't bet this game, um, but I like Seattle in it. And I'll tell you what, on a neutral field, I make Seattle field goal favorite at least over the Dallas count Boys. Um So, I think even with this line dropping now from that high we saw earlier in the week two and a half, I still think there's value on Seattle. So for me,

it's Seattle or nothing at all. And I agree with the over as well. I think it's a little bit too low. Um at forty two and a half, I was surprised they brought it out that low. Alright, APO on the side, Thank goodness. There's other betting vehicles like totals or teasers and that kind of thing. You are not required to bet these a t S. If there's anything I try to do on a numbers game and try to break people out of that construct of a t S is a great example some of these games.

Seattle at Dallas. UH. Keep in mind, by the way, Chris Carson, since you bring him up as hundred twenty two yards and a touchdown versus Arizona, but Russell Wilson was sacked six times in that game. They got to clean that up and Seattle had a three and out on five straight offensive possessions UH, starting in the middle of the second quarter through the middle of the third. So they really that was not an impressive game. They

gotta bounce back from that. Starting quarterbacks Shaquille Griffin, he left in the first half with a twisted right ankle injury, did not return. Did not practice yesterday Tuesday, So keep an eye on Shaquille Griffin's injury for sure. Doug Baldwin also missed practice yesterday, but he should play. He said, I think when it comes down to it is nobody wanted to play in Chicago. We wanted to play in Dallas. In a Dome, Doug Baldwin very honest about that. Greg

Deeter profitable forty point one percent portfolio profit. What do you think about this game? Sea pickyback nine A couple of things that you guys said. I was definitely looking at the home road split here. Uh, seeing with Seattle at four and four on the road, and even though they a lot of these teams have had some momentum coming into the playoffs, going six and one for Seattle, five of those wins were in Seattle. Uh, But definitely like them with the teaser. Like you guys were saying,

teas in Seattle teasing that dog. There seems to be some value there. I like J. J. Wright coming back into that lineup. I think putting him next to Bobby Wagner at the speed element to that defense, I think they're gonna be a pretty sound on that side of the ball. But again, with these close games, and it makes a fun weekend to watch. Maybe a little tough to bet ah ts um so Seattle with the teaser, but if I didn't have to take it a t s, I think I'd be on the Cowboys at two two

and a half. It's a great way to say it. Though, if if you're forced to bet a t s, that's the thing that people should take away more than anything, at least I think on these Saturday games and even into Sunday, a brief reminder that support for today's show, as always comes from Bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a must because the first to bose odds, take the highest limits, and pride themselves on never having

kicked out a winning player. There is nothing more important than that fact right there. Bookmaker is a high volume sports book. It's best suited for the sophisticated player who understand sports betting, but also large recreational players cater to them as well. And Bookmaker's motto, as it's always been, is where the lines originate, because chances are your sports

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without Bookmaker, just the best betting experience out there. You'll find out once you sign up as well. Let's go to Sunday. Chargers are at Baltimore. That's the early game on Sunday, Chargers twelve and four, fifth seed. Oh, what could have been? What could have been? But you know what, the Chargers on the road as a dog from a betting standpoint a lot of opportunities with them. I'm heavily invested in them with futures in the A f C primarily, but I like him on the road. Uh. Some people

thought the Chargers should be favored in this game. John Murray over at the West Gate, he was surprised that the Charges weren't favored. I guessed that the Chargers would be three point dogs. That's in fact what it was. That because Baltimore had just gone in to l A and beating the Charges two to ten. Very recently, Chargers

get by the Broncos on Sunday. Philip Rivers completed fourteen passes game they didn't need once Kansas City started stomping on the Raiders in their game, but the Charges of one six straight on the road. They were seven and one away from home this year. Their only road loss uh to the Rams back in September. No shame in that. And Baltimore is in this on the heels of Lamar Jackson. Six in one run. Lamar Jackson. You talk about saving

somebody's job, Lamar Jackson saving John Harbaugh's job. Baltimore staves off a furious Baker Mayfield come back and drive late to clinch the a f C North. Sorry, Marco, the Steelers, And that was a great shot, by the way, when they were showing the Steelers after they got by the Bengals in their game, looking up at the jumbo tron watching that final drive, that was great. Drama didn't happen

for the Steelers. That's a whole another subject with all their drama with Levian and Antonio Brown, and that team needs a home makeover. They don't get the tie at night either to get them in the postseason. So it's the Ravens here a C North champs hosting the Chargers. The proverbial team. You do not want to play in the playoffs. Ace, we start with you here. Baltimore by two and a half right now, total at forty one and a half. Yeah, And I've been really high on

on the Charges all year. It's just having to travel on the road and to Baltimore. This is not a good spot for them. Now. When they played in earlier December, it was another situation which was not a good spot for the Chargers. If you remember, um it was kind of a sandwich game. They were coming off a win at Kansas City by one point in that phenomenal finish. Um, they have played Baltimore at home, and then they had Denver on deck. Uh So, it wasn't a great spot

for the Chargers. And it was a pretty good spot for Baltimore. I mean, they had played Tampa the week prior. It was a pretty easy game they won. Um So, I mean it was a better spot for Baltimore even though they had to travel there and get to win. And the way they did it was simple. They ran the football thirty five time for a hundred and sixty yards and forced two turnovers. Uh actually one fumble and two interceptions, so three turnovers and were plus two in

that ratio. So I mean, when you do that, you're gonna win. And that's the one thing with UM the Chargers, they just haven't been protecting the football of late. Uh you look, they've had nine turnovers over their last three games, and to me, that's a little bit troubling. And more importantly, Baltimore is the one team that's just so overlooked UM and and really I think disrespected in today's NFL because

of the way they get it done. You're not supposed to be able to win football games in two thousand and nineteen not throwing the football. And I mean since Jackson has taken over, Brown and Crabtree have never had more than fifty yards, even though they had five games on their Flacco with fifty plus yards. I think you look at all his other targets, Andrew's snead nothing. I mean, none of UM had more than five catches in a single game since he's taken over. And yet they're winning

football games. So it's like everybody says, we're okay with this, and I love that UM do what you do best, and that's running the football. And I think you're gonna see a heavy dose of that on Sunday, and I'm not too sure San Diego is gonna be able to handle it because you look at San Diego's defense, granted good and even against the run, it looks that way, but that's against teams that did not run on them. I mean, other than Baltimore and Cincinnati, no one else

even tried to run against San Diego. And when Cincinnati did try to run, they ran thirty three times for a hundred forty four yards. They were successful running. Baltimore, they were successful running. I think that's how you beat San Diego. You keep that offense on the sideline, you make you force them the press. That's when they turn the ball over and you just control the football and keep running, running, running, and forced them to stop you. And to me, I think that's a sap be for

winning in the playoffs. Hopefully it's cold in Baltimore. I like Baltimore, even though I made this line pretty much where it sits right now, so not much line value based on my numbers. I think the handicap the situation sets up nicely. I like Baltimore to advance man and again I feel paper San Diego um like this is another year where they're the pretty much the second level,

you know. I mean, they're ready to take that next step, and things just don't end up well either, playing a road wild card game instead of a home playoff game. So for me, I like Baltimore here at home, and were it not for a last second loss to the Broncos at home in November, it would be the Chargers as the number one seed in the a f C playoffs and earning a first round by by the way, Hunter Henry showing up for this game for the Chargers. Melvin Gordon in as well, but Hunter Henry making his

first appearance of the season. Greg, what you got on this one? So you're looking at this game, I mean, it's never gonna be easy to go into Baltimore in the playoffs situation like this and come out with a wink. I'll be rooting for your ticket here when the Chargers

getting the points. Looking back, this is actually a game I rewatched their recent game, the recent matchup between these two teams and seeing how the game was tight and seeing how it developed with the Antonio Gates fumble in the fourth core that was returned for a touchdown to put Baltimore up twelve and then Rivers taking a deep shot and throw an interception in the end zone with

about a minute and a half left. I think one of the keys here is going to be the Chargers edge players recently playing that Baltimore team and seeing their offensive attack. Hopefully that helps, you know, with their eyes and the keys to try to decipher that run game and maybe can dictate how Baltimore plays offenses the game develops, and and then we'll see uh Lamar Jackson and in the pressure situation having to complete a couple of passes.

So I'm sure he can do it. He's certainly a threat even when they're throwing the ball, running, taking off and running. So a good matchup here. But I think the Chargers have a balanced offense, defense, special teams that can can hopefully get them to win in this one. Greg, do you feel empty now that you don't have schedules to analyze anymore? Like remaining schedules for all these teams? I do, to be honest, Yeah, A lot of what I was doing was, you know, looking at two or

three weeks in the future. Obviously we can sit there and a lot of things are gonna change. Week to week, whether you win or you lose. But with these markets, it was it was trying to look down the road, set up certain you know, buys or cells, to to see what the future holds for these teams. So yeah, slightly different looking at these playoff games. That's the whole game. The stock market game is scheduled analysis Marco Chargers and

Ravens Sunday morning. Yeah, guys, you look at this one, and you know Baltimore, you know, they keep doing it. It's ugly, but they get it done. And yeah, that scene watching on the jumboats on, I really thought Baker was going to pull it out whenever, but it just blows my mind. Whenever they were like five yards away from fueld goal range, when they got that catch, you know, and they got the rolling in their favor, they didn't

make another yard. Four four past plays, you had a minute less in the game, you could ran the football somewhere in there was totally derailed. I I knew you would. Yeah, all they needed was the field goal, right, I mean, trust me, I didn't want it to season to come down to a Cleveland field goal kicker, believe me. Uh, this has just been a horrible year for kickers, but uh, I don't know. And then as far as the Chargers going, I alluded, what were they doing leaving everybody in that

game as late as they did? Um? That was I was on the Broncos out full disclosure and that cost me a seven and oh ticket in the Nugget. That was my only loss in the Nugget. Go we are you in it? By the way? Are done? I was on the outstarts of just you know, maybe sneaking into the top twenty, but uh I needed that seven and oh and um we were like, but do you know how the last week is? And to go seven and oh in the squarely week seven and team, I can tell you I only had a couple of NFL plays

the rest of those Bowl games. How about how about the guy? How about the guy who won the Super Contest? Eric Kahane, who goes by Personal Gourmet, went five and oh week seventeen to win the Super Contest seventy one point for a million dollars. Amazing, amazing, amazing. Uh this one, this is what I'm gonna go with on this one. And here's the thing We've talked about Lamar Jackson and everything that he's done and how unorthodox the system is, but it's working. But this is gonna be the first

time for something in this game. It is going to be the first time a team faces him for the second time. Now, you know, it's one thing to have game film against other teams, but now you've got game film against yourself. And I think the Chargers are gonna have a better game plan, uh for Lamar Jackson. And I think that he is going to have to make some plays with his arm. And if they don't have a spy dedicated to him on every play, yeah, Anthony

Lynn would be an idiot. Okay, you have to put one player on him every single play, and I think they're going to get the job done. Um, I know that. You know, usually I like to take teams to keep winning ugly because the public, you're usually gonna get value with them, and we're starting to see that because the money has gone to the Chargers. But I'm on the

Chargers and this one. And of course, just like the Seattle game, if the one that I grabbed the teaser on immediately was getting the Chargers over the touchdown, you're talking about a team that's gonna run the football, run the lights out of the football. Even if they win, I'm looking at their margins of victory and generally it's not there to go over that touchdown. So that's where I'm at to make it short and sweet, and people, you know, everyone expecting at some point, Lamar Jackson's gonna

have a bad game. Game. You know it's coming. That's what a lot of people say. It's come. And trust me, well, we'll see if it comes in this particular game. Philadelphia Chicago is the final of the four wild card games this weekend. It's the only one with a bigger spread than three. It's at six, five and a half, six somewhere in that pocket in favor of the Chicago Bears, who made their own bed by deciding to beat the Minnesota Vikings and therefore they end up with Nick Foles

and the Eagles. This is one of these games where the total by the ways at forty one as well to really low totals on Sunday by today's NFL standards, I could totally see the Nick Foles magic run end with a big record scratch right here, because there was a scenario here where I could see the Bears winning miss by four touchdowns, Greg, what you got? Yeah, this game here is five and a half. Six, Like you were saying, it's not a number I'd love to play.

But the Bears do have my backing playing at home with that defense. Kind of looking at Philadelphia season and what you were saying with Soles and and we'll see how this all develops. But yeah, I'd like to look at this game, maybe live betting ship how to get a better number early on rev than taking the five

and a half. But that Bears team, the way they're playing at home, hopefully that offense you can keep the ball moving, keep the Eagles on their heels, and that defense should be able to close it out with a win for them. Nick Foles now six and oh and must win games filling in for Carson Wentz, including two

this year stepped in for Whence sidelined by a back injury. Whence, of course, earlier this month, guided Philadelphia to an upset on the road against the Rams is thirteen and a half point Dogs and then uh the franchise record for yards passing in a game versus Houston, oh of course, and against the Redskins this week. How can I forget controlling the ball for forty three minutes and nineteen seconds,

So three this year. Three. Last year Marco thirty year anniversary of a Fog Bowl, which was at Soldier Field. Bears beat the Eagles twenty to twelve back in the day to get to the NFC Championship. How do you see this one going, Fog Bowl? I remember quite well. Oh. I had a big play on the over in that game.

And if you remember the first quarter, because those were two of the best defenses in the league and the total was so low, I said, they're gonna come out and throw the football at the other team aft guard and they did. There was like fourteen points right away, and then that fog just rolled in and sat its fat ass right for the rest of the game. That's still yeah, that still remains the most incredible thing that's ever happened to me, Like it's almost hard to believe

that it happened. And for those who weren't like of an age where they can remember that game, you couldn't see a thing. It was incredible. Never said never anything before that or since. The weirdest thing ever. It was like in the second quarter where it happened when they came back from breaking all of a sudden, they came back. There was no visibility at that point. Side note to that game because I you know, I had a big

play on that game and lost. It was like five or six days later at the Meadows, my race track at home, my mayor was race in a phillion there open. She would have went off that night like at three to five, just you know, jiggie jock. She was so sharp at the time, and she was racing four you know, a ten thousand dollar purse that night. About forty five minutes before her race, the same thing happened at the Meadows.

This fog came in and laid right in the infield because the Meadows Racetrack has a you know, cut out infield. I mean it's it's a gully, and uh, it just lay there. They canceled the races. When they canceled the races, you get two hundred dollar consolation because you know, you traveled to course and stuff. Yeah, so it's that a ten thousand I got two hundred. So and all of my buddies were texting me laughing their ass off. You know that, Uh, you know twice in seven days. Yeah,

you guys, that's the buddies I have. But on a side note to this one with Chicago, the Nick Foles story, I agree with you, a Gil. I think the the magical run and the love of Nick Foles fens real quick when they face the defense that is the nastiest defense that we have in the NFL, when Khalil Mac comes, you know, and puts the pressure on him. Look at the teams that Philadelphia has done this against, uh no offense.

But you know, they've won five games in their last six. Okay, three of those wins were against the Giants and the Washington Redskins twice. And in fairness to the Redskins, they didn't have any players left. Okay, this was a team that had nothing left. So they beat a Rams team that came in off of um the biggest game of

the year, that Sunday night game against the Bears. We talked about it in the uh in college football, you know, the Dream Crusher game, because the Rams wanted home field advantage. When they lost that game, home field advantage was gone. You know, they were playing for the number two seats. And then that was the week that Carson wentz Is out. So you think, okay, now we're gonna face the backup quarterback.

We just gotta show up and we're gonna win. Remember that line jumped four points from nine nine, nine and a half the thirteen and a half. It got us high in that game, and Philadelphia took it to him and then they'd beat a Houston team that you know, Houston went up and down the field as well. It was a thirty two thirty game, So what about that defense. My only concern of why I'm not snapping the rubber

bands on Chicago. I'm on Chicago. But this is uh Trabinsky's first playoff game, and just like with Lamar Jackson, I didn't mention that whenever we did that game. You know, we don't know how these guys are going to react with the pressure, especially being at home and being a favorite. You're you know, it puts more pressure on the young quarterbacks. But this is a defense that you're not gonna run the football on the Bears. And if Foles has to do it all with his arm, you know, two games

ago against Houston he threw the football fifty times. If he has to throw the football fifty times in this game, they're gonna get blown out. I'll tell you that right now, double digits because there will be turnovers. I got Chicago. Um, Like I said, I'd love to make it bigger, but my only concern is Trabinsky. But I still have Chicago Bears of one nine of ten. In fairness, Eagles did hold the Redskins to eighty nine yards of total offense.

But as you say, that's the Redskins on their fourth string quarterback and read into that what you will, Marco, you gotta run. So before you go answer this question real quick. If you're forced to bet sides, here the game you're most confident in the game, you want no part of of the four The most confident for me,

I'm actually gonna say the Dallas Cowboys. And the one that maybe I would be the least confident at this point is the Chargers because they're either gonna win and you know, and and win comfortably, or this chimmick offense of Baltimore is gonna, you know, bite me. And he asked one one time. Uh so That's where I'm at.

But you know, I do like the games. You know, if we were doing this and say, is there no game that I went absolutely no part of, I don't say that because I think there's some kind of value in every one of these games, whether you're doing it taking it away from the A T s or not in using other methods such as the teaser and the charger game. All right, Marco, appreciate it, man, Thank you, Hey, thank you. Good luck, guys. Marco D'Angelo got stuff to do. Ace,

He's got stuff to do that, all right. Marco hasn't hung up yet, so he's listening to us talk. He's like, is he gonna are they gonna talk more about me? All right? What do you think about this Philly at Chicago? Yeah? I actually I like Chicago here. And it was funny. I'm on on Sunday as they were playing the NFL games were ending, and um, it was a talk on

Twitter what the lines are going to be? And Jason McIntyre tweets, um, Jason symbol of cannon and says, yeah, I think Chicago is going to be three and a half against Philly. What do you think? And I tried I tweet it in. I said, if they for off three and a half, I could promise you. My guys are betting it up the six, like just Paler rating alone. They're gonna jump on on Chicago. You know, even blindly, just the numbers value is going to be there, not

even handicapping the match up. UM And I wasn't surprised to see the six. I still think it's too low. To be honest with you, I think if you factor in home field advantage, the line should be over a touchdown. Um. And I also want to say something real quick about teasers. You know, people say what's a good bet? What's a sucker bet? That The truth is I always say this. You want to know what's a good bet where the books are most vulnerable, just has the betting limits. That's

all you gotta do. If they're not willing to take a bet, they're not too confident. Um. And the one thing you notice in the playoffs there are no rush to take teaser bets. In fact, when it comes down to the championship weekend, those books that are willing to take a five thousand dollar to team teaser during the regular season will take a nickel from you ten times less on championship weekend because they believe that the true

odds are much greater than the house edge come that far. Um. So, I mean any time a book is worried about taking a bet, you don't be afraid to exploit it by thinking, oh, you know, there's always that rule, this is always a sucker bet because nothing could be further from the truth. And again, if this was over a touchdown, Chicago would be an automatic tease. At this point, I think even personally, I don't have a problem laying in, but I saw the money line at minus two forty two fifty. To me,

that's a steal. Your break even is like sevent They have to win straight on, and I think their probability is much greater than that. I mean, there's a one lost team at home against a fifty fifty team of Philadelphia on the road that's just decimated. I mean, you look at their backfield for weeks now, they don't even know who's gonna be back there. They use three different backs than two of them I've never even seen before. And then you look at Traubinsky, I think he's gonna

be just fine. I kind of disagree with with Mark on that point. I think you want to play at home. I think the pressure is less in the playoffs than having to travel on the road in hostile you know where where there is you're in the red zone and the fans are going nuts and you can't call the count or audible. I just think there's a lot of advantages of playing at home, even if you're a young guy. And which Forbinski, here's what I love the most about him.

How he distributes the football. Allan Robertson targeted nineteen percent at the time, Gabriel eighteen percent at a time, Cohen sixteen percent at a time, Burnton sixteen percent at a time, Miller eleven percent at a time. You don't know who's getting the football. You can't just double up one guy. I mean, he just spreads it around. So I mean this is a very dangerous team. In fact, I think Chicago is the third best team in the NFL right now.

The only teams I would make favorite over Chicago in a neutral field are obviously the Saints and the Ramps. That's it, honestly and has no bias at all, even against Kansas City. I think Chicago is a one point favorite on a neutral um against either Kansas City or New England, which I have pretty close to each other. Um, So for me, I like Chicago here. I don't think the six is a problem you know, I always fear backdoors always, but um again, I think Chicago should win

this game. Pillar to post and Floyd, I mean Folds, I don't see Folds having a good game against this defense. I agree there as well. Yeah, I don't either, Chicago. So if you had the same question that I asked Marco, of you, the game that you feel most confident on a t s the one least confident, Houston Indianapolis is the least. I really don't even have an opinion on on the game to have any confidence on it. Um

my most confident. I actually like Baltimore, man, and even though that based on my lines that that's not it. Based on my lines, the greatest line value is actually the Chicago and then Seattle. Um. But I just like how this game sets off for Baltimore. I like the matchup for Baltimore. I liked that they're playing at home. UM. I liked how under value the market sees this team in the playoffs, and I like how high the stock is on the charge is coming in. I mean, to me,

it just sets up nicely. And the fact this lines going up the two and a half instead of moving the other way is a little telling. Sign again. I like Baltimore is my I think right now is my best bet. Again, I haven't bet it throwing it out there, but that's it's an unfair question though, I will admit because again for me and I'll just be honest teasing dogs and money line in Chicago. And if people think that that is square, I simply say to you, you're

the square one. If you think that square um same question then closing out Greg Dieter at Profitable p R O P H I T A B L E was his handle in the score X beating the book contest. Greg, I hope it was a pleasant enough experience for you. I hope it was worth the joy of your entire season. I know that you were doing it for the competition, not just being on the show. But same question for you. The most confident A T s here in the least of the four games Cole Texans. I mean that is

just a coin flip game. We'll see how it goes with the Andrew lock Riven Colts. I think they've kind of overperformed throughout the season here, which is it's good for them, but we'll see how this one game plays out. So that's the game I probably have the least confidence in picking and uh, most confidence I would go with the Bears. Again, the line is a little touchy here, but if we are talking about money line or a team that we have confidence in taking the win, the

Bears at home, I think is a good play. And absolutely this was a pleasure. UM really excited to be on the Megapod. So thank you to Jail, Marco Ace, you know all those people involved over at the score Extra putting on a great competition. Uh, the contest is a lot of fun, bringing that market aspect to the NFL season as a whole dimension to my weeks. And hopefully we get some more activity next year if it's still going on, we get some more people from the

the Megapod listeners to to sign up. I think I'm in about thirteenth place right now. Maybe we can get somebody in the top ten of the top five. Wow, your thirteenth place in the overall pool. Yeah yeah, so, I mean to be honest, I was a little disheartened earlier in the season seeing the standings, but then when you came and updated the Mega Pod standings, it was a little different. So that kind of gave me a

second Wind. Yeah, I mean I think I'm in place right now, thirteenth place, and that goes through the playoffs through the super Bowl. First prize, five thousand dollars will be rooting for y'all. Keep an eye on that and I'll actually post those standings and see where you fall into the mix in there. Greg, Thank you appreciate it, Thanks so much for spending the time, man and congratulations again, thank you, definitely appreciate it. Here you guys are the best.

Thank you, man Ace, thank you, thanks to Marco. Good luck to everybody with all your Wild Car Week bets, and thank you so much for listening.