Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Championship Round 2020

I'm doing very well. I'm gonna go through these games that happened last week because a couple of them anyway, We're unbelievable. And of course Todd wishing up from the uh showtime docuseries Action was happening. Toddy and our rotating guest back on the show for a playoff run. We wanted to have him here last week, but his podcast partner had a death in the family, so he was

unable to join us. But he's here this week. He hosts the Lombardi Lin Saturday and Sunday Morning at Visan along with Pas Trick Maher six to nine Pacific nine in noon Eastern every Saturday and Sunday morning, has his own podcast called the GM Shuffle with ad Nan Verke rights for the Athletic and of course the book is Gridiron Genius. It's our buddy. Michael Lombardi was at and Michael not to be here. Thanks for having me, appreciating

Hello everyone, Hello sir, We're happy to have you. I was saving you for the playoffs, for a return appearance on the playoffs. In the playoffs, so I'm glad you're here. Let's begin, guys, because I don't think it's gonna take very long. Two games, the winners of which, of course advanced the Super Bowl fifty four, two weeks down the road. Next week, by the way, it's our Vegas Lifestyle podcast, and then the week after that are Super Bowl Props

super Bowl preview show. But as far as the championship games, first one is the a f C Championship between the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City right now seven point favorites with extra juice. That's the consensus seven minus one twenties somewhere in that pocket. Always shop around because these lines will vary. The totals of fifty three. The Titans are here by virtue of their win. Of course,

over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens become just the sixth team in the modern age to go fourteen in two or better in the regular season than one and done in the playoffs. They do it with another if you look at the box score. Another whole hum performance from their quarterback Ryan Tannehill only eight yards passing was seventy two the week before when the Titans be the Patriots. But they don't need that kind of yardage when Derrick Henry is going thirty, which is what he did against

the Ravens. Also threw a touchdown pass on the jump pass uh in that game. Just an unbelievable performance by Henry. But really it came down to high leverage moments. Tannehill had his chances. He made the most of them his two touchdown passes also had one on the ground, plus three in turnovers for the Titans as well, and the biggest stat of the game the Ravens over four on

fourth downs. Huge they're playing the Chiefs. The Chiefs by an even more unbelievable turn of events in Kansas City Houston up as we all watch twenty four to nothing, Kansas City dropping a couple of third down conversions of muff to punt, and then at twenty one and nothing, Bill O'Brien decides to kick a field goal. He changes his mind, he goes to twenty four nothing. That seemed to change everything on that moment. Mccol haardman with a great kickoff return that led to the first Kansas City

touchdown to seven. Then a fake punt that went to askance for the Chiefs ends up not converting short field fourteen, ensuing kickoff fumble. Next thing you know, it's one, and then by the end of the half, Chiefs win it going away. Michael, we start with you again. Kansas City favored by seven. Your thoughts are on the a f

C Championship. Uh. You know, I think when you go back and watch the game in week ten and really break it down, you really have a hard time understanding how Tennessee won the game had the ball two minutes, Kansas City was seven for fourteen on third down. They can ask, can't they got Kansas City in a lot of third downs. They really never stopped Kansas City. Uh, and it took a lot of unusual events that occur. Uh. At the at the end of the game, with four

minutes to go. They come down, they got a third and four that they don't convert. They kicked the field goal. Tennessee gets the ball back again. Uh, gets into a fourth and seventeen, can't convert that. Chiefs are in prime position to uh. And then all of a sudden, the Homes instead of taking throwing, you know, laying down, takes a sack that moves the ball nine yards back. Bad snap. Now we get grounding because the the field goal kicker threw it out of bounds. And then Tennessee comes down.

They leave twenty three seconds left on the clock, just enough time to try a fifty two yard that gets blocked. I mean, when you watch the game, you say to yourself, how is this game even close? They really never stopped I mean, I know they gained five hundred yards, but they never really stopped Kansas City. Uh. They made Kansas City punt one time in the game. UH. And really they could have done anything they wanted to Kansas City

to to Tennessee the whole day. The thing that I get from the game most importantly, and I think this reflects to the Baltimore game last week. Even though Tennessee was down by nine in the in the third quarter, they never changed who they were. They kept doing what they did because they they're married to it. They can't run drop back passes, their offensive line can't pass protect, so they stay with their run, They stay with their

play action. Tannehill made some plays with his feet and they got themselves the lead in the game, and their defense made just enough plays on third and two like they have in the playoffs to convert. Can they duplicate this as the question? And can they duplicate it to where they can? And I'm having a hard time seeing it. I know they're playing better than they did then, but the Chiefs are playing better as well. Chris Jones is on the field for this game, so we understand that.

But I think the reality of this game is can they cover the Chiefs well enough and play good enough defense to keep this game where it won't get away from him? And That's where I'm in a hard time. Sounds like you lay the points? Is that true? Or am I saying too much? There? I I my again, It's Thursday. Chris Jones. If he doesn't play, and he didn't practice today, and there's a good chance he probably

doesn't play, but he played in the last time. If he doesn't play, I'm definitely taken the Titans and the points. I don't think they'll win, but I'm taking the Titans and the points. Mike Palm from Servius Sports. A couple other things about this past weekend. One Bill O'Brien, not only the change of mind on fourth and one, Hey, where he elects to go for a field well to make it twenty four to nothing. He didn't go. He didn't change his mind on that. Just still we're clear

on this. I mean, he thought it was the first down they had. He thought it was the first down, so he was sending out the next play. He didn't change his mind. He was sending. He was sending he thought it was first intent, and so he sent out that group and then when he realized it was fourth down, he was going to take the points. And you certainly are entitled to criticized for taking the points. There's no doubt I'm not saying that, but I don't think he's.

My point to you is he didn't change his mind. They basically let him think it was first down. I stand corrected on that. I'll tell you where he did change his mind, though, Texans were down seventeen with just over eleven minutes to play, and it looked like the Texans were going to punt the football and then changed his mind, so no doubt. Yeah, I mean that that was certainly a change in mind late in the game, and that was very O'Brien esque peculiar. At the end

of that game, Mike palm your thoughts. Kansas City favored by seven total fifty three. Yeah, gil Um, I want to go back to the first game as well, please that my referenced in week ten. I mean, he's right, they never stopped Kansas City. They outgained him five thirty to three seventy one. In addition to all the high jinks in the last five minutes of that game. Let's not forget for Sea and Evans had a fifty three or bumble recovery returned for a touchdown that was one

of Tennessee's scores. You know, Tanny Hell only threw the ball nineteen times in that game as well, not unlike what he uh they've asked him to do in the playoffs here. Um, I just don't think that Tennessee is going to be able to slow down Kansas City. I think the fact that Kansas City lost this game in Week ten, we'll get them out to a better start

than they had against Houston. They'll be more focused. He can't lose another title game, Andy Reid, you know, I don't think they're going to be tight at home because of the big comeback that they had last weekend against the Texans. I'm gonna I'm gonna lay the seven points here with Kansas City and feel pretty comfortable about it. Just a jog people's memory about that game. That was

Week ten, Tennessee thirty five Kansas City thirty two. As the guys have alluded to, Tannehill throws a twenty three yard to Adam Humphries with twenty three seconds left. Joshua Kaloo blocked the last second field goal attempt UH fifty two yarder so to get that final score of thirty five thirty two. That was the game that Mahomes was coming off the knee injury. It was his first game back UH and the Titans only had a chance after a bad snap by the use on Harrison Butker's fifth

field goal attempt of the day. Kansa City coach Andy Reid blamed the communication for the staff taking holder Dustin coll quit by surprise, you throw the ball away and desperation for intentional grounding. That set the Titans up at their own thirty nine and that's when they matriculated gil Gil. One one quick question. I just want to ask Mike palm this, who's an expert on officials. Do we realize

that Coarenti officiated this game in Nashville the last time? Mike, Yeah, we realize it, and I want to I want to ask you this, does Tony PARENTI have pictures of River Rod, the Fidel's wife, and how is he getting this game again? Michael? He's embarrassing. Not only did not only was he horrible in the wild card game in Houston four weeks earlier on Sunday Night Football, there was confusion on every play with his crew when the Patriots were down there. I mean,

he can't do it anymore. He was fired as a supervisor officials to the pack well six years ago. His career has deteriorated. He's not the officially was fIF seen years ago. I don't get it, Michael. You know I don't either, And I think when you really watched the tape of this game, he had a huge influence on Kansas City. Slow start. I mean, Kansas City turns the ball over early, uh, and it's seven nothing and they get all of a sudden, they got first and ten,

they think they score, and there's just repeated. There's an offensive past interference call, there's a holding call. I mean, that's why it was ten enohing early instead of being fourteen and nothing early. He actually, I mean he called seventeen penalties in this last game, so you know, and he's going to be. His influence is going to be in this game. And if you take the Titans and

the points, prepare yourself for that. Todd. One last thing about the Chiefs last week, and I mentioned this with Michael on Tuesday when he was on a numbers game at Visa on Series x M two oh four. I mentioned it on Monday when I was doing the autopsy of this game. But there was that moment as Kansas City, and I had it in game on Kansas City when they were down fourteen nothing at minus one one. I did it again at minus one twenty. Didn't do it until it got to twenty four to seven after that, uh,

and then it was plus one sixty seven. So I missed the best bang for your buck. But still I never had a doubt that Kansas City would win. But it's twenty four to twenty one. It's first and goal at the five with fifty eight seconds left in the

first half. And at that point, if you're Andy Reid, the correct game theory thing to do right is to at least incorporate a run to bleed the clock so that if in fact, when Kansas City, if and when, and we can assume at least a field goal there, if and when Kansas City scores, Houston will have as little time as possible to operate with at the end

of the first half. Instead, pass pass pass. They do get the touchdown to make it on the Mahomes to Kelsey touchdown, but only twenty seconds elapses and Houston does matriculate the ball down the field. They do get a field goal attempt, it doesn't go in, they don't convert it. But it's those little moments that do give me just a little pause about Andy Reid in these moments in the playoffs, and I'm just curious of you thought the same. You know, of course you have to worry about Andy Reid.

He's the genius schemer, but has had situational issues in the past, so you always have to think about that. But I don't think it's going to be a factor this week. I think Kansas City is a much better team by the I don't know if you guys have noticed this, but the last seven games since that Tennessee game, Kansas City has not only won the game, but has covered the spread seven games in a row. In the National Football League. To cover the spread is really remarkable.

I mean, we know how tight the NFL lines are, and to cover seven in a row, you know, it doesn't happen often. Let's put it that way. Now, if you remember, the previous game was the first game with Mahomes back after they had that Minnesota game where um Matt Moore was in and then of course Mahomes comes back.

He was rusty, and even with the rust as you guys have all mentioned a million times here, in the fourth quarter, they're up by nine, really should be up six team because of the Tennessee one of the touchdowns was a fumble. It's to go in that game in the fourth quarter. This this there's no way Kansas City should lose this game. Now, they were at Tennessee, and some weird high jinks happened, and that's what happened. But it's not gonna happen in Kansas City, I don't think.

And I think it could be curtains for Tennessee. I would lean Kansas City. And usually we see in the championship games for points spread purposes, the favorites usually do very very well in the championship games, if I if I remember correctly, Can I just ask one one quick question to Mike because I've been dying to ask him this the whole time. Um, Mike, you know how teams have third down in fifteen packages and they throw the ball, you know, they bring in their dime package. They throw

the ball underneath. The team gets twelve yards, it's fourth down. Everybody puts their hand up fourth down, and they punt the ball. Right. That's usually when when the other team is in their own side of the field. So of course, let's say you're at your own twenty, you throw a little twelve yard pass, you punt the ball. But when they're at the fifty yard line and it's third and fifteen, it seems to me they're in the same dime package and they a up a twelve yard passed to the

thirty eight. They all get excited that it's fourth down. They put their fist up in the air, fourth down, and they don't realize, oh, well, the team's gonna go for it because now it's only fourth and three from the thirty five. Do teams have different packages for third and fifteen, whether they're the other teams at midfield versus whether the other teams all the way deep in their own end, Yeah, no doubt they do. I mean they have.

You know, they have a line and usually you determine that line and pregame warm up when you watched the opposed field goal kicker, you know kick, and so the decause coordinator knows that. You know, if any time the ball is on the thirty eight or end, they can make this field goal. So you know, that's the point territory we have to do. The quarterback meets to know it too, because if he takes a sack at any point on the field at that that area, get they're

losing points and if he gets outside there. So yeah, it's pretty much communicated and it's talked about. And look, sometimes you get people, you get him off guard and and they they do stupid things and guys break a tackle. We saw it, you know with Houston play Buffalo Heart Graves got a chance to make a tackle, get off the field. He can't do it. Next thing, you know, you know, uh, you know, Houston's uh, you know, got

the ball and they keep the drive a lot. So yeah, I think it's it's linked to the field goal kicker, and that distance is always tied with what he can make. But aside from the field goal kicker, are they anticipating that the other team? Let's say it's even let's say you're at your own forty six, they get twelve yards there now there like the forty five, and now it's fourth and three and they're gonna go for it? Do they do they anticipate that the other team? They actually

go for it on fourth? Now, well, you tell me who we're playing. If it's Doug Peterson, they definitely anticipated. If it's Pete Carroll, they may not. You know, I think a lot of that. That's where that's where analytics doesn't really help you. That's what I wrote the column in the Athletic. It's it's all situational, right, you know, if it's Peterson he's no, he's going for it. If it's the Baltimore Ravens, you've got to play four down

defense at every part of the field. If you're playing somebody who's a little bit more conservative, you know, then you know you don't have to and so it all it's all predicated on who you're playing, interesting and that third down call. So we're clear that third down call should be reflective of that. You know, the thing you don't want to do on third and fifteen is get

called for defensive holding. That's the last thing you want to do, you know, who don't want to be grabbing somebody and pulling somebody, so you want to play a little bit more zone and you don't want to be able to you know, you don't want to get too much hand grabbing all that. So that's why there's not a lot of man coverage on those third and longs

because nobody wants to get caught poolling and targeting. NFC Championship follows the a f C Championship on Sunday, kick off three forty pm Pacific, six forty pm Eastern at Santa Clara. Niners seven and a half point favorites over the Packers total is at let's call it forty six consensus, though I do see a forty six and a half at CIRCA. I see a forty five and a half at CG In Las Vegas. Niners get here by virtue of their twenty seven to ten win over the Minnesota

Vikings this past Saturday. They were seven point favorites. Was nip and tuck there in the first half, and I got the feeling, and I think Kyle Shanahan felt the same way based on what happened there after, that the Niners could really name their score if Jimmy Garoppolo just didn't really mess it up for them with the turnover, and we saw a subsequent drive in the second half where the Niners did nothing but run all the way

down the field into the end zone. It really was all Niners in the second half and really wanted going away after a nip and tuck first half. So the Niners get the home field they of course first seed in the NFC playoffs. My NFC futures on the Niners still alive from before the playoffs began about plus one thirteen and plus one twenty three. UM. Then there's the Green Bay Packers. The Packers got here by virtue of the twenty three win over the Seahawks as four and

a half point closing favorites on Sunday. That game, as Michael, you and I discussed on Tuesday on a Numbers game, is typical of every Seahawks game seemingly all year long, which is it's a one score game, and the Hawks, by the way, end up finishing the season eleven and three and one score games, this being a three if you include the playoffs, this being the third. But the Seahawks fall behind and then it's as if Pete Carroll says, well, Russell go get us out of this hole, and Russell

Wilson does Russell Wilson things. But it was too short in the end, and green Bay holds on based on two huge third down conversions by Aaron Rodgers after Seattle elected to punt with just over two minutes left, with all three of their time outs in pocket. Michael Lombardi, we will start with you, as there's only two games we go around the Horn San Francisco seven and a half point favorites total forty six. What do you think here? Well, I mean the last time they played it really wasn't

a close game. And then the Packers were one for fifteen on third down. They had the ball thirty five minutes, which to me is a complete remarkable analysis of how do you keep the ball for thirty five minutes? Yet the one for fifteen on third down and you have less than two yards somewhat remarkable, right, I mean, and you know they did a good job of holding the forty Niners are only two for four in the red zone, and and and they scored thirty five points. So I mean,

this is kind of a weird game. Obviously. I think it was one of those games that you know, the scores probably indicative of how badly the Packers played and how dominant it was. And again, like all forty nin games, I think this is a game that's gonna come down to the ability the forty Niners front to dominate and pressure Aaron Rodgers from the inside against the guards Jenkins and against Billy Turner. You have to be able to pressure Rogers inside, and they've got to take Davante Adams out.

I think the limitations within the Packer offense if they can't run the football greatly favors the forty Niners, and I think this is a game between Kyle Shanahan and Mike Petton. Guys know each other really well. We're on the staff before was on the staff. I mean, there's

so much familiarity to what everybody does here. I'm gonna go with Kyle, and I'm gonna lay the points here at that point about Davante Adams to me is everything like he was the offense for the Packers in it, which just seemed to me that the Niners would try

to He came out of that wide receivers. No one else had more than one reception against the Seahawks, by the way, that game that you're referring to, of course between the Niners and the Packers earlier this season, thirty seven to eight in favor of thirty seven nothing Gil.

If you remember there was a phantom call in the end zone at the end of the first half on the third right, Do you remember when when Rogers they called two penalties on Richard Sherman, I believe in the end zone where they didn't even show the replay because it was such a bull crap call and and and they gave them the touchdown because they you know who knows why they gave him the touchdown, but that game should have been thirty seven nothing if or thirty seven

three at worst. Yeah, we talked about that the next day, how there was no replay that we even got to see. But thirty seven to eight was the final. It was Week twelve. It was a prime time game. Rogers through for one hundred and four yards. He was sacked five times, as Michael said, less than two hundred yards of total offense. It was on Green Bay, as Michael said, one of fifteen on third downs. There was not a game in the NFL this year that had a worst third down

statistic than that. Now that's a double edged sword, right, because you can say, if you're a Packer backer in this, you could say, well, they can't be that bad again. On the other hand, if you choose to view that as reflective of what's gonna happen here moving forward, as a different story, George Kittle, by the way, doing Kittle things in that game. Six and a touchdown, Mikey was when the Packers finally stored, they went right to Kittle and they had big play and answer them, and that

was really the game. Um I agree with Michael I think that you know in this in this game the Packers won in the divisional round, there was no pass rush from Seattle. They're gonna have to face a team that's gonna put pressure on them almost every down. And I simply don't think, and I said this early in the year that this Packers defense is very good. I think that San Francisco will do just about whatever they want to do here. Outside of it, Profolo has a

horrible game. Now, is that possible. It's possible, but I don't think it's very like Lee. I like San Francisco

a lot. In this spot, Gil and I'll lay the points here, and I want to ask Michael a question related to the gaming Green Bay last week, and Michael that that face mask that really wasn't a face mask against Clowney Um where they eventually got together and you always say when official three or more officials get together, they're talking about what they didn't see, and then they came up with he grabbed the opening, Well he didn't. He pulled them down from the back outside of the helmet.

Uncle here's my question, Michael. Uncle Brent said on the show this week, what they ought to do is get rid of reviewing pass interference calls and be able to review face mask calls. Do you agree with that? Yeah, I mean, look, face mask calls are easy to review. It's either did or didn't. It's like you know, uh, we we got to be able to see it. And sometimes they react to what they think they see and usually that's wrong. As I've said many times, when they

react to something, you know, it's usually wrong. So yeah, I'm and I wish we could do that. I wish we could speed it up so that they could do it and handle it easier. By the way, weather for these games in San Francisco sunny and fifty seven degree high and Santa Clara on Sunday, and the Kansas City Chiefs game much like the Packers game last week, no precipitation, zero percent chance. Twenty two degrees will feel like it's fourteen degrees, but could be much worse for all intensive

purposes this time of year. So no inclement weather anyway, just cold in Kansas City. Todd, your thoughts here, I think you have to look at San Francisco and um possibly also the under forty six. And I know they're betting it up a little bit, but you know, I noticed something about the Niners. You had a little bit of jittery Jimmy there last week where he threw one pick and he threw a couple of other balls that you know, he's probably the luckiest quarterback of all time.

He gets more balls that should be picked and the defense drops him. You know those expected uh interception ratio. He has a hell of a babbit and they're lucky he has a left up on those. But it noted. I noticed in the second half, as I'm sure you guys did that. They didn't throw the ball at all. They just said, we're willing to get six yard chunks.

We'll just keep getting six yard chunks and we'll win this game easily because we know Kirk Cousins can't do anything and he's under siege every time he drops back to the past. So I think that green Bay got really earned three points in the last game. I mean his green Bay's offense really told us that it's the usual and Aaron Rodgers tremendous green Bay offense, it doesn't look like that the last couple of weeks, or even all season for that matter. So I don't see green

Bay scoring a lot of points here. And if San Francisco gets a lead, I have a feeling Mr Shanahan's gonna go right back to handing the ball off, taking five yards and punting the ball. We could see a scoreless fourth quarter here, and it could be, you know, thirty to seven going to the fourth quarter and it stays under because they're just willing to run the ball

the whole rest of the game. So I would certainly be careful if it's a Niner Niners are up big in the second half, you might want to definitely be looking at under, and I would lean to the under, and I also lean to San Francisco. Garoppolo was eleven of nineteen in the game last week against Minnesota, only eleven completed passes, one thirty one yards, one touchdown, one

pick was Zack twice. But you know, you don't need to like we see with Ryan Tannehill, you don't need to win football games, you know, by conventional ways or what what people would deem conventional, when you've got other strengths in your in your football team. They held the ball for thirty eight minutes and twenty seven seconds did the Niners against the Vikings. They held the Vikings to two of twelve on third down, held the Vikings to one forty seven total yards only twenty one on the ground.

Uh Niners defense flies around. So as far as yeah, go ahead talk, I just wanted to ask Mike one other thing. You know, I really love the segments you you do on a Numbers game with Bill on Tuesday's Mike and You you talked about missed field goals a lot being a major problem for the other team. Um, and when you said that miss field goals score you know, very high ratio. Is that just because the field position

is so good for the offense. So, for instance, if a team misses a forty seven yard field goal, the other team gets it at the thirty seven yard line, they're only sixty three yards away from a touchdown. Does that are you saying that after a missed field goal it's the reason they're scoring so much is because they're getting that great field position. Or is it something that you know momentum meaning any other drive that started at the thirty seven wouldn't score as much as a missed

field goal drive starting at the thirty seven? Are you just saying it? Definitely, you go ahead. I definitely think momentum carries onto it. But I also think it's that it's what it's a turnover and the team celebrates it like a turnover, and then the offense can get going

a little bit. And I think when you look at the teams, you know that that like for example, when we take you know, Kansas City this week, going into the game, they rank in the league and their opponent's miss field goals, you know, so, and then when you look at Tennessee Tennessee, so even though their ninth, Tennessee's ninth to turnovers there it's three and miss field goals, so that kind of balances it out. And Kansas City seventh and turnovers, but their opponents are twenty five, so

they don't really net at a huge advantage. San Francisco's fourth and thirteen in terms of few turnovers, fourth missfield goals they rank thirteen, and then Green Bay when you look at what they are their third and tenth. So both teams really are kind of similar in the field goal field. But last time they played Kansas City, you know, they both both teams missed extra points, Both team missed extra points, both teams miss field goals, and ultimately the

special teams of Kansas City. When you watch that tape, I mean, you can watch it a thousand times and you're gonna ask yourself the question, how did we lose that game? I think that's a great point about the missfield goals though, the way that you couched it there at the end, Michael of You know, it's not something that broadcasters talk about in the in game play by play broadcast. Is not something that is discussed on pregame shows, conventional pregame shows on network TV. But what you were

describing sort of the basketball equivalent. This is kind of a dirty analogy, but Aaron Shots and I used to joke about free throw defense right where we don't ever talk about how fortunate or unfortunate teams get on just the conversion rate of the opposing team on free throws. We don't process that. Our brain doesn't process that. And it does mitigate what you're saying on on the field goals of the opposing teams. It does mitigate the turnover

stat to some degree. Well, yes they're doing well on turnovers, but they haven't really gotten the best of it, say on this particular thing where teams actually do convert field goals all the time, against them, so they haven't had as many opportunities. Just one of the things that I'm assuming you talk about on the Lamarty line every Saturday and Sunday, that that's great stuff that you don't hear

typically don't think it matters. It matters tremendously because you know, it's it's a net effect of how many times you're really gaining the football, and if you don't count missfield goals into the turnover ratio, it can be really deceiving. I mean, Dallas this year, for example, was the number one team and the opponent's missing fiel goals, you know, and that they were only eighteenth of turnovers, you know,

and so they had a lot of extra chances. Whereas Philadelphia, you know, they weren't great at field goal kicking, they weren't great at creating turnovers, and they got thirty two second Football League in the schiel goals by their opponents. Yea, and Dallas two seasons ago was tremendous in one score games and not so much it regressed as you might predict this year. So maybe Dallas, in through a couple of different lenses, wasn't nearly as good as many thought

they were. Different times of this season. You know how a lot of a lot of handicappers on season win totals will look at what the turnover ratio was the year before and see, and that's kind of what you're talking about, right there, is the fortunateness of the team. So if a team was like plus twenty in turnovers,

they're really not that good of a team. And now here's a hidden turnover stat that Mike Lombardi is talking about that we really should be looking at if we're going to be doing that same analysis next year, saying, hey, a team was plus twenty and turnovers, but hey they also got you know, the Cowboys also got all these

miss field goals too. They're really not that good. But Mike, if I understand you correctly, you're basically saying, if the team misses a field goal and now they're starting the other team starts at the thirty seven, they're gonna do better on that drive than if they were just to get a kickoff return to the thirty seven, get a punt return to the thirty seven, you know, And that's it.

Like Baltimore, for example, here's a perfect example. Baltimore is sixth in the national Football League in turnovers, they are fifth in miss field goals by their opponents. That's significant, right, They're getting extra possessions every time they turn around. They're

never losing possessions. And my brain would say todd that regardless, if you want to debate momentum or not, missed field goals generally speaking will give you field position that much closer to the opposing end zone, right because you spot it right where the kicker misses it, not at the line of scrimmage. So it's really shorter fields more often than not. And in a LYTCS you know, you know what, every down and distance from the opposing goal line, there

is an expected point value. So if you really wanted to get wonky and nerdy with it, that's really what's at the root of it in my opinion. Yeah, but it would be interested. It would be interesting to do to do a comparison and teams starting at the thirty five at their own thirty five after a missfield goal versus team starting at a thirty five for any other reason and see how if there was actually a momentum

factor to a missfield will be interesting. It would, But Isaac did that the guy who won the circle he computed all this, Isaac did all this. This is what Isaac was doing with his database. I mean he was He's ahead of everybody, and that's why he was so good at being able to handicap games, and that's why he won the circuit contest. I mean, he took he would send me his his breakdown every week, and it was all based on the things we talked about. The

who's good and who's good in the eight minute? Who's good, who's good in uh the middle eight? I mean I love I love now how Chris Fowler calls it the middle eight of that every time, like Lamarty never quotes it, you know, never quotes it. And then he starts that. I heard him start talking about four point place too. So I mean, I think that's really the number. I mean, that's the corner of the the game, right, and the people that are handicapped in these games, the best understand

what really matters in the game. And I think the Tennessee team is a complete, uh it's a complete dossier of what really matters in the game. And everybody's focused on Henry, but no one talks about how good they have been in short yardage defense. Third, Patriots of the ball first and go with the one they don't get in Baltimore is the best fourth down team in football. Ten for ten can't get on fourth then one twice. Both times those points turned they turned into touchdowns both times.

The things that matter if you study that alleged to what the teams are really good. These other numbers, I don't know the eight ratings are all that. Like, I'm not sure they have all this stuff in it. This is the stuff that matters and football, well, this is this is the stuff that baseball has figured out through analytics for decades now. It's all in the public domain. But we just don't quite have the same true reflection of skill set thing in football. And this is sort

of a dabbling in it. Um Todd, my question would be white in Isaac, because I thought, you, that's your buddy. Why didn't he send you that stuff? I guess I'm not, you know, important enough. Apparently not Jesus, that's your buddy. I mean, I'm not saying I'm important. I just I think what what he was, you know, Like, I think

he read the book. I think he's smart, and he took a lot of the things from the book from reading Coach Wallace reading my book, and I think he put it into a formula and he came out with his power rankings. Because remember this is no different than scouting. We're trying to eliminate games. This is why picking playoff games are hard, because you can't eliminate any game, right, you know, the every week you need to eliminate games.

You know, not fine teams. You like, You've got to eliminate games, and you have to have a disciplined way to do it. If you don't eliminate, you're really you know, I tell people's story all the time. When when when Tom Porkmand was driving over down the road in Oklahoma and he went right to, uh find Mickey Mantle that you know that that's that's lucky, that's hitting the lottery. Whereas you know he you in scouting, you have to

eliminate people. You gotta eliminate players, not find them. Maybe we'll get Isaac on for the Super Bowl prop show. Maybe we'll get him on. He felt so. By the way, still, it's not like I know the guy that well, he just came up to me, but just Josh and I was kidding. By the way, he is By the way, he is a bright guy. If you talk to him for like fifteen minutes, because he's in financial stuff and I used to be in financial stuff, and so we talked about that, you can tell right away that he

this guy is a bright kid. Yeah. I spoke with him for about ten minutes. I enjoyed him very much. I could tell very quickly he was a smart kid for sure. As always, guys. Support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a musk because their first post odds take the highest limits and pride themselves

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it out, thank me later. Okay. Uh So here's I'm betting this, gentleman, because we're not gonna do our final two questions because obviously there's only two games. But I'll just like to throw out for people. Here's how I'm betting it. One, I have Niners futures in pocket to win the NFC. So because I have those, it does change the way I'm betting it. I will bet Green Bay plus the points and try to hit both bets. Um,

that's how we'll do it. I'm not going to I don't know if I'm gonna You know, I could just like, I could just sit on my San Francisco futures, but I think that's a lot of points also, so I think I'll do that. If I didn't have those NFC futures, I would probably just do one teaser, and for me,

it would probably be teasing San Francisco down. And I know this goes against what most of you guys are saying, but I'd probably tease Tennessee upwards to thirteen, thirteen and a half whatever I could get it at based on the number. So if it got to eight, for instance, I would absolutely tease Tennessee. I'm curious what if any that's any of you gentlemen will have Mike palm, what

are you doing? You know, I'm gonna tease both favorites down um essentially to a pick uh and the teaser, and then I'm gonna play the under in the San Francisco game that Todd alluded to as well, I think that, uh, I just don't know that Rogers is going to be able to put up that many points with the pressure that the forty are going to be able to get

on him. And I know one for fifteen is probably an aberration, but I don't see if San Francisco is gonna be able to put the that that the Green Bay is gonna be able to put the all in the end zone against this defense. I think it's a little high that total I would make this total quoture to forty two forty two and a half. Yeah, I'm I'm with you, And that's why I'm not like a sure I'll bet Green Bay plus the points and try and both of them. I may just sit, may just

stand pat on my niners futures. I really haven't completely made up my mind there, Todd, what are you betting? How are you betting? Before? Before I say that, Mike, you might also want to look at instead of teasing them down, you might want to look at the money line parlay and see if it's better than the teaser odds. You know, Yes, I will do that. I will do that. I'm gonna wait to see where these numbers go. I think we'll be set on seven uh with Kansas City.

I think that maybe the Cream Bay will come down to seven two in the money line will go down with it. Yeah, um, I would think what I'm gonna be leaning to the under. As I mentioned before, I think there's a decent chance that San Francisco could be ahead by you know, a decent amount late and want to just run the ball out like they did against Minnesota last week. So I'll probably be leaning to the

under there. And I may take a shot with Kansas City here because I just think Kansas City is much better and this could get out of hand, so I'll probably be leaning on that. Of course, there's always a chance I'll just be in gaming like usual. Yeah. By the way, the money line parlay at this juncture would

not be a more favorable bed. Well, would depend on how many point teaser it is, right, Yeah, but what I'm saying is for that you would be laying minus Let's say it's minus one twenty on a six point teaser. You're laying more than that right now. If you do the money, it's about minus It's about minus one a little over minus one thirty for the money line party. Yeah, Michael Lamarty, I don't generally ask you this, but if you were a betting man, what would you bet here?

You know? I mean if I were a betting man, I think I thought Kansas City was a super Bowl team starting with a trip to Mexico City and have played like one. Uh. I agree that, you know, they they're tough there. Tennessee has had this unbelievable thing. But when I watched that game, I can't believe that Tennessee can really do anything more than what they did, you know, and I thought they were fortunate. My instincts would tell

me to bet Kansas City, but without Chris Jones. I'm a little bit nervous about that because the one thing about Tennessee is there, even if they're down early, they're not going to change you. They are They're gonna throw it, They're gonna run it with this big guy, and he's hard to tackle, and it's gonna be a problem. So you know, if my if I did anything, I think San Francisco, I think Green Bay. The pressure is gonna get to Aaron Rodgers. It may not happen in the

first quarter, but it's gonna happen through the game. And when they take Atoms out of the game, then what's gonna happen? And I think the Niners are just too good. Yeah, Michael means the physical pressure, not the uh, the mental pressure. We're talking about Aaron Rodgers, right, Um. And then the final thing would be it sounds like everybody here. I mean, I still like Tennessee a little bit bet Tennessee, but I think Kansas City gets there. It sounds like everybody

thinks it's in San Francisco Kansas City super Bowl? Is that also the matchup you want to see? San Francisco Kansas City? Michael Lombardi you know, I think that would that would be the best matchup because you know, a great defensive line against the great quarterback, a great running game. I mean, it's got all the elements of a great super Bowl. So who wouldn't want that, right? I think that's what I'd like to see, As we know in sports, what we want and what we get are two different things.

If TenneT can keep winning playing me seventy two Dolphins style of football, god bless them. Here's the thing I wouldn't mind seeing Tennessee in They've been very good to me during the playoffs. I absolutely don't want to see Green Bay in there because I just think they they are a paper tiger at fourteen and three. With apologies to Green Bay fans, I just don't think they're that good of a football team. Mike and Todd, same thing. You want to see San Francisco Kansas City as well?

I do. For sure. You could have a full prop sheet just on the matchup for the two tight ends. Yeah, so true, Todd say, I would agree. I mean, of course, if it's if it's a football game, I will be betting it, regardless of who's playing, whether it's incarnate word going up against Kyle Baptist. I'll be interested in watching it and in gaming it. You love incarnate word. Gentlemen, Thank you, We've done all we can do. Mikey Palm, Todd Wishnev thank you as always. We'll talk to you

for the Vegas Lifestyle Show next week. So do your do your lists on restaurants in Vegas and whatever else it is that you find entertaining in Las Vegas. We can go in all kinds of tentacles, so do that. We'll do that next week. And Michael Lombardi host the Lombardi Line at Visa, also writes for The Athletic of course. The podcast is UH the GM Shuffle with ad Nan Verk and Gridiron Genius is the book. Michael, Thank you as always, and I'll talk to you on Tuesday on

the Numbers Game. Thank you, thank you, Michael, Thank you all. Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Championship week in the NFL. Thank you so much for listening.