Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Championship Round 2019

what's happening? Marco? Hey, just glad to be here. We only got the two games or three games left, three games left, three weeks left of the football version of this podcast, three weeks left of the megapod because you know what's next week. For those who have not been around for the years that we've done this, let's just say it gets a little deplorable next week and front and center starring Mr Deplorable himself. Ace. What's happening in Ace?

All right? Never better man, never better? Thanks for asking. Things are good. Can't complain. Had a good year, healthy, happy, things are good. Football ending a little too quake, But at the same time, I'm kind of happy for it to be over, you know what I mean. It's it's been a long season and now in the new year, basketball's here. It's kind of tragged on a little bit. I agree. It's like We're all on a hamster wheel during football season, right It's just a never ending cycle.

And yeah, I mean at some point you need a break. I will say this Australian open destruction. That's what I'm betting right now. I don't really love these two games. We'll get into that coming up. Our friend here, who has joined us once again for the umpteenth time over twenty five appearances on this podcast. He certainly knows what it's like to be on the hamster wheel during football season. He hosts the morning show over at ninety five point seven the Game in San Francisco. It's the Joe Low

and Dibbs Morning Show. He's the job part of that, and for our purposes here he hosts The Sharp six hundred podcasts available through covers dot com, a gambling nugget, an instant offensive podcast in the sports betting world. Really great show, ladies and gentlemen. It's the Great Morning Joseph,

Good morning Gil, Good morning Ace, Good morning Marco. I'll tell you this, um, It's easy to come on here and say something nice and make it sound like I'm pandering to gild Or, Marco and Ace, but the reality of the situation is this. I've been covering sports now for ten years, and you get a lot of opportunities in sports to jump on radio programs and to talk

with a variety of different individuals. Maybe you get a TV spot, maybe your live streaming, maybe you're on a podcast, And by and large, a lot of them are positive experiences and they're and they're fun to do. Sometimes every now and again, though you have one that will pop up at a bad moment, you'll forget about it. It will be more like a homework assignment. Again, not complaining. It's a beautiful thing to be able to talk about

sports for a living. But this right here, this to me is my absolute favorite, um opportunity to talk sports kind of my own show speaking with you guys well because generally brought on as a guest who's supposed to shed some insight, and I know that's what you're doing here, but I actually learn more, I think than I give out when I'm on this podcast. I love listening to you guys, and I always appreciate the opportunity. So thanks so much for having me on. Man, You're very welcome.

You are the greatest for saying that. I appreciate that and We all feel the same about you, and we like coming on your show as well. So thank you, Joe who back in the day, in the fledgling days of this podcast, if I didn't have a guest right before the show, I knew who to call, Joe Ford and Ball on the double, he'd be on there. So

we always appreciated that. And look at you now, multimedia celebrity. Yeah, that was always such an That was always such an insult that I would be your backup option back then. I'm talking a lie. You Uh, you would aim for someone big and if they didn't come through at the last minute, you would go to the scraps, You go to the bottom of the battle, and I'd get the phone call and I'd come through for you, time in and time out. I come through for you. Gil. It

was insulting. I have not forgotten, you know. Joe is as as Andrew Brandt claims to have drafted Aaron Rodgers, I too claim now lewis emmy stuff. He did. He called Aaron Rodgers to tell him the Packers were drafting him. So I was just kidding, all right, guys. Two games NFC Championship, a f C Championship back to back on Sunday. Uh, let's just spell them out right here. The Saints were three and a half point favorite consensus most of this week.

It's kind of dipping down a little. It's three and a half reduced juice. It's three points with extra juice somewhere in that pocket. The total here has remained somewhat steady. Let's call it fifty seven right now. There's fifty six and a half and fifty seven kind of equally distributed. Second game, which we'll get too later, that's been three the whole time, and that total has come down a bit, but it has settled. We'll get to the Patriots in Chief's next. As far as the Rams and Saints, that's

the first game on Sunday. Rams get here by virtue of their win over the Dallas Cowboys. They do so relying on the ground game. C J. Anderson, who I did not get the memo that he was a bowling ball, like I remember C. J. Anderson like being a spelt dish kind of guy. He's a bowling ball in Los Angeles has played three games for the Rams. Third game last week, twenty three carries a hundred twenty three yards

two touchdowns. Todd Gurley sixteen carries a hundred fifteen yards and a touchdown that was a Rams playoff franchise record two hundred and seventy three yards rushing. So you can look at it as a huge positive for a ground game, or you can sort of take the reverse and say, I don't know if they trust Jared Goff that much. I don't know. We'll get into it with the panel here. Jared Goff by the way, fifteen eighties six. Uh. There

was a theme in last week's games. Not only did all the home teams win, not only did it end up being one versus two in both conferences, but the time of possession difference was so nuts. Last week, the Rams in their game against the Cowboys thirty six minutes

and thirteen seconds of possession against the Cowboys seven. The Rams advance to take on the Saints, who of course are here after spotting the Eagles fourteen points in the first quarter first nine minutes of that game, and then the Eagles only had the ball for like twelve plus minutes the rest of the way, never scored again. The Saints possessed the ball in that game for thirty seven minutes and fifty seconds for the Eagles. Michael Thomas twelve catches,

franchise playoff record one seventy one yards. Saints win at Feen. Don't cover though, because Will Lutts Uh missed the fifty two yard field goal because apparently Sean Payton felt like they should just settle for that field goal on that strange third and seven call late. We'll get into all that, but it is the Saints hosting the Rams one seed at home versus the two seed. Joe, what you got? What are you thinking here? Both these games are what

I call eye test games. Um, I I may. I don't need to give you a lot of trends or stats to tell you which direction I'm going. UM. A lot of games uh and bets that I end up on come through a lot of research. But I've watched enough and I've seen enough from these two uh scenarios that i know where I'm going strictly based on the eye test. First and foremost, what you saw the Rams due to the Cowboys last week? Do you have to throw that out of your mind? You cannot take that

into consideration this week for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, the Dallas Cowboys were tipping their hand with their defensive fronts. Essentially, in the NFL, there are two ways to try to cause chaos in the backfield. Either you blitz or you generate pleasure with the front four. If you're not gonna blitz, and Dallas doesn't like to blitz very much, you've got to get creative with how you screw up the backfield. And one of the ways

you do that is by stunting. Essentially, you take a defensive tackle, you line them up in one gap, but when the ball snap, he stunts, he goes to another gap. The idea is to confuse the offensive linemen, cause some chaos in the backfield, clogged up the running lanes, and end up either with a sack or a tackle for a loss. Basically, you're just trying to create havoc. That's what Dallas likes to do. The problem is that they have tells, and the Rams knew those tells going into

that game. The Rams knew when certain dts were lined up in certain spots, They knew exactly where they were going. They were able to get that information to Jet Golf. Jared Golf is able to check into the correct play and Todd Gurley and C. J. Anderson were running free down the field. How many times did you see one of those guys get to carry up the middle and they'd get eight or nine yards before someone would even

put their hands on him. Yes, exactly. And if you anyone who plays poker in this whole group, I know they do, especially Marco. If you've got a guy who's out there giving you a tell, you're just gonna sit there and melk that for everything it's worth. The Saints

are not going to do that for the Rams. And if they don't allow them to have those tells, Golf is gonna have to make more plays and it's gonna be very difficult with that crowd noise for him to get Sean Payton or excuse me, Sean mcveigh's uh calls and insight coming into him, then to hear his offensive line, then to make checks. I think the spot is way too big for Jared Golf. The last time these two got together, it was a close final score, but the

Saints were wrecking them in the first half. They got sloppy and let him in late. Drew Brees just turned forty years old. Think this is the last March for him. I think the Saints want this game really bad, much like the Rams do. But I don't know what the Rams are gonna be able to come come to the table with that's gonna be all that impressive. If you want golf to play well, you've got to establish the running game, and I don't really see that happening at

least with any sort of consistency in the Dome. You fall behind the Saints, which i'd imagine you'll do, you're gonna find yourself in a situation where golf needs to make plays down the field, and I don't think he's capable of that. This team loves to go play action, but if you're down two scores, no one's gonna bite on your play fakes. Everyone's gonna know the throw is coming, and when it comes to the Saints. They had one bad quarter against the Eagles last week. It was the

first quarter. It shouldn't come as a surprise. They were off for three weeks. They had to buy They didn't play their starters in Week seventeen. They came out sloppy and the Eagles took advantage of it. Stints eventually got the ball rolling and outgained them by like three total yards the rest of the way out. So looking at this game, if you're gonna play props, I think a lot of people are gonna be so excited on what

they saw from Derson and Todd Gurley last week. I think you can fade those guys and moving the opposite direction. I laid the points with the Saints here. I like him to win this game. I like it. I like it a lot. First of all, it should be pointed out that not only does Marco play poker, but if the rodeos in town, he'll put on cowboy gear just to blend in. That's the kind of that's the kind of poker player he is just playing dumb. That's Marco Danzelo.

He's actually sent pictures of this. It's phenomenal. I pretty much agree with with all of that. I don't have a play on on these games. But there's no way I'm playing the Rams. So I mean, I'm actually a lot more opinionator on this than I and then I guess I'm I'm letting on. There's no way I take the Rams. I'm with Joe on on almost all of that. Uh, it should be noted these two teams played back in November at the super Dome. Saints won that game forty

five to thirty five. I don't have a very vivid recollection of that game. That's how much football is, uh just absolutely saturated in my brain. So I should have a good memory of that, but I don't. Uh. Saints one that forty five thirty five super Dome in November. Uh. And one thing about the Saints last week that I think is interesting. They looked flat when they started that game against the Eagles and they were able to overcome it.

And I think that's perfect for them. The fact that they had that scare and you know, people are saying, oh that, uh, that Latta More interception when the when the Eagles were up fourteen and nothing that changed the game around. I think what changed the game around is what happened subsequent to that, because the Latta More pick simply ended in what looked to be a three and

out for the Eagles at that point. But on third and one, there was a holding penalty, and excuse me, for the Saints at that point, there was there was a holding penalty on third and one at their own thirty the Saints own thirty and Doug Peterson elected to decline the penalty and give the Saints a fourth and one at their own thirty. That was the big mistake of the game. And I didn't hear them harpen on that enough on the broadcast, because they went in upon

formation at their own thirty. Taysom Hill the up back, first down, and the back was on from there. They matriculated the ball down the field. It was fourteen seven and the Saints got it done from there. Marco, you agree with that that a scare might not be that bad of a thing for the Saints last week? Oh, absolutely, one thing I'll disagree with that. You know, I would have declined the penalty too. They were at their own

thirty yard line. Most coaches aren't gonna go early in the ball game a gamble from your own thirty yard line. If they missed there, now granted they didn't, but if they missed there, Peyton gets crucified for going for it and given Philadelphia the ball in field goal range. Uh So, you know, it was a turning point of the game,

but I think there was a bigger turning point. And uh I look at the games and from the four teams that advanced and when I get to this round, I tried to sit down and look at the games through the eyes of John Q. Public because John Q Public, we know, is gonna screw up more often than not. And the team that looked the least impressive out of that moved on with the Saints because they fell behind by fourteen. Yeah, they won, but they had to survive.

You know, Jefferies having the ball go through his hands normally a shorthanded receiver and end in an interception to preserve the win. And is Joe alluded to? You know, the Saints didn't play anybody in Week seventeen, and when is the rest of the NFL gonna wake up? It cost the Rams last year and it almost cost the Saints this year. Quit resting everybody in Week seventeen because if you're that good that you can rest people in week seventeen means you've got to buy week and that's

gonna result in three weeks. You can't just turn a light switch on and have these players ready to go. You need game speed, and that's too big of a gap. You gotta play these guys at least a half to get some rhythm with them. That said, people are gonna look and say, hey, this pants were lucky to survive and move on. What I saw from that game was a rusty team at the beginning. They took control of the game after the first quarter. The game changer was

rolling the dice and going for the first down. Uh, deep in your own territory. But I'll tell you what. As I watched that game, when they had the third quarter and had the eight team play drive, which they constantly kept shooting themselves in in the foot and moving backwards and still moving forward and cashing it in for a touchdown, not a field goal touch getting the touchdown, I said, right there, I am looking at a championship drive. That drive, to me, is gonna put the Saints in

the Super Bowl. Now we'll find out, you know who they match up against and which side I'll be on. But to me, that was a championship drive. And I also took away from the Rams game the game plan was perfect for them for what they did against Dallas. Dallas didn't see that coming. You know who would have thought the game plan was gonna be We're gonna run a football down your throat. Considering how good Dallas was,

it stopping the run. And nobody thought C. J. Anderson was going to have the game that he had, or in my opinion, have as many carries as he had. And what that tells me is Todd Garley is not They are milking him, trying to get every last ounce they can get out of him to get to the finish line. And this week they're not going to be able to do that. There, you know. And they also the running game is Joe said, it protects Jared Goff.

Jared Goff's gonna have to make plays this week. And given the fact that we've seen Jared Goff a few times this year, especially the Chicago game where he looked confused and you know, but he wasn't for the big stage. You give me a choice between Drew Brees even at forty, versus Jared Goff at this stage. And what I ford, you know, assume is not a pent Todd Gurley. I'm gonna go with the Saints all day, every day, all day long. I got the Saints movement on and I'm

laying the points all day early day. Yeah. How many games now have you said out loud, not you personally, Marco, but any of us have said out loud, is there something wrouna with Todd Gurley? What's going on with Gurley? What's doing with Gurley? What's going on there? Because you never really know if he's hurt or not. You have to speculate he's not a uh in this ball game.

By the way, last point about that thing where you where you said you would have declined it to I hear you that it was on their own thirty in that last game. The only thing that I would counter to that though, again is Doug Peterson knows more than anybody the Eagles run to the title last year. How going for broke on fourth downs and fourth and short was such a huge thing for the Eagles last year. And he asked to know that the guy at cross the field from him, Sean Payton, is just like him.

That's a guy of his ilk. So really was based on the opponent. For me, it's like, oh, you know, Peyton's going for it. That was the clapper on the other side of the field. Jason Garrett, I get it. I would have done the same thing, but I'm like, I'm not letting Sean Payton do something. You know, some shenanigans there, So anyway, that's what happened, and it was the turning point of the game either way, Ace what you got here? All right? For me, this is like

a best and worst case excuse me, scenario. And not to like pat myself on the back, but the truth, when you're that good at picking futures, it's no seriously, it's a gift and a curse. And what I mean, I'm seriously, I'll bullshit aside. I'm very good with futures. I've hit three of the last four World Series winners and the one I lost my teammate at the World Series the super Bowl. I've done good with I mean, I've done well with futures. And unfortunately, in the industry

i'm in the it's not good. You're not supposed to give out futures because you're supposed to sell picks, and if you're good at giving out futures and your team's advance, you're not going to be able to sell picks. Fortunately, I built myself around selling results, long term results, and not picks, so I'm able to set my guys up for future success with these futures. Um. And the truth is, I don't like to give up equity. I mean with the case of the Red Sox, I had my sub bribers.

I told I'm betting on top of it. I'm betting the Red Sox to win this series instead of hedging it, because I think we have the best of it. And very few times are you ever that certain you have the best of it, and when you do, don't let them go. Um. And before the season, I gave out the Saints at fifteen the one. I gave out one an FC team, one NFC team, like I do every year, and I gave the Saints at fifteen the one, and I gave the Patriots at seven to one, and both

are now in the championship games. So for me, the obvious move is to hedge, you know, if if you're not sure coming into this game. Before I looked at anything, before I handicapped it, before I saw what the line they were gonna put up there, and before I checked any accouncil to see if any of my guys are moving. Um. I thought that the line should should be around four and a half. I thought, let it come out around

there and see what they're gonna do with it. Um. They brought it out shorter than I thought, and I said Oh my god, I'm gonna have to bet the Saints again, especially if it's at minus three. Uh, I'm not gonna heade it. I'm gonna bet on top of it because this looks like one of the best bets I'm gonna find this entire season, because I really think it's a great spot for the Saints. I love the fact how they come off of last week again starting

off slow. Um. I like that the Rams are coming in looking like they're on fire, having covered three straight games, having scored more than thirty three straight games. Um. But if you look at who they played, two of those teams were Arizona and San Francisco. I mean, prior to that, they weren't playing good football. They had lost to Chicago, they lost to Philadelphia. UM. So I mean the recency bias gives us a little bit of advantage on the Saints.

They haven't covered, um since December nine against Tampa Bay. So I'm like, everything sets up nicely for me to say no hedge and we're betting again. I'm betting the Saints. You guys, do what you want, um, But I think there's enough value to bet them. And then again, the worst case scenario For me, happened because Monday morning I checked the accounts and the one group that's actually done the best in the NFL, and I lost last week when I faded them on a total. Um, what do

they do? They made two bets, um, and their first bet they made was the Rams plus three and a half UM. And I don't This ain't the kind of group that takes advantage upsetting up middles or manipulates. They take they make positions, that's what they do. Um. They're They're that kind of group. UM. So I know they liked the Rams for sure work um, you know at plus three and a half. And for me, I respect

these guys. I when you work with people that win long term, you realize you're not going to get rich fading them. You ain't gonna piggyback them blindly. Obviously I never do that, um, But I respect them. And now that's in a position where I believe I'm gonna have to hedge this bet um for safety reasons, because there is that much equity built up and their sharp money that disagrees with me. Um. Otherwise I'm all over the Saints. I think this is a great spot for them. UM.

I think they match up well. And more importantly, I'm not a trend guy, but even historically, teams in this spot have been extremely profitable. You know, when you're not a divisional team, if you haven't played him in the division, it's just like you know, inter conference or not whatever, um, And you won the first game and during the regular season and you're meeting that team again in the playoffs. The team that won the first game has won the

second team fifty of eighty four times. It's happened eighty four times. They've won fifty straight up. If they're favored in the rematch, they're fifty two and thirty two. If they won the first game and then are again favored in the rematch, they're forty and twenty. They've sixty seven percent of time they've won. So I mean every trend as far as meeting the first time also supports the Saints.

But straight up and against the spread are two totally different things, and in those spots against the spread, those teams had not been profitable. Even when looking at that sixty seven percent straight up mark, it's only twenty four and thirty five against the spread, So these teams have not done well. A t s in the Saints position, but they have gone on to win the game. If that trend continues and the Saints could win by one, two or three, it may fall in great for myself

and maybe I could middle it. But where it stands right now, I I could share this information I and tell you with certainty, uh sharp money is on the rams. They're you know, these guys are not gonna take New Orleans. They're not gonna lay three minus twenty. That's not gonna happen. I could promise you. Um that train has left the station pretty much and it's ramps. So for me, I think I'm gonna have to hedge this one. And I didn't want to because I like to be in New

Orleans Saints a lot. I really did. Wow that that took a turn at the end. I didn't expect to come. That was interesting. Yeah, I'm just gonna be I'm honest, dude, I tell like you know what I meant. No one likes someone that stands on the fence, and I'm not trying to argue both sides at all. I love the fucking Saints. I think Saints minus three minus twenty is a ton of value. But again, I've done this long enough to have respect for certain people and that's one

of the groups that I again. I dated him last week. It didn't turn out well, and no reason to do that again. I will not be touching the rams at all, as always, poor Ford. Today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu Anddustry Leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a must again the trifecta, their first to post odds, they take the highest limits, and the main thing they pride themselves on never having kicked

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book follows their line over at Bookmaker. And if you visit Bookmaker dot eu slash GIL right now, that's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L. You can join and claim an exclusive welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars still time just before championship weekend. That's Bookmaker dot eu slash GIL two. L's on gil to join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars. I swear by Bookmaker the best betting experience there is checking out seat for yourself. Game two on Sunday, a

f C Championship, New England at Kansas City. This is Kansas City minus three. It's been three. The whole way open at fifty seven and a half. I believe it was uh fifty seven, let's call it. It dropped all the way down to fifty five on speculation on a weather forecast. Actually everybody got out there doppler and saw that there was gonna be subarctic temperatures. Perhaps I actually

looked it up. The difference between Arctic and Subarctic apparently go to the Arctic circle and then you go further south in that Subarctic. I have no idea. Anyways, supposed to be very cold, but then they've kind of backed off on that a little, So the total dropped down all the way to fifty five. Now it has bumped a little higher to fifty five and a half. That's where it sits right now. For the second of two games, the a f C ch title game between the Chiefs

and the Patriots. For the Patriots, it is their eighth straight conference title game. It's mind boggling. You know. Um, when I was a kid and I said this on a numbers game the other day, I used to joke as a Redskins fan, I used to say, Hey, if if Lawrence Taylor, if Joe Gibbs had Lawrence Taylor, the Redskins would have won like thirteen super Bowls. That was the number I used to just throw out. This is not the super Bowl, but it's the doorstep of the

super Bowl. And this is the thirteenth time, that actual number, the thirteenth time that Belichick and Brady have gone to a conference title game. That is sick. That is like, you can't even wrap your brain around that these two teams did meet in Foxborough Week six. We do remember that game, Patriots forty three to forty winners. Chiefs came back in that game. Patriots had to hold on for victory. Um, Patriots come here after just absolutely destroying the Chargers on

Sunday morning. I don't know what Anthony Lynn and that coaching staff was doing, but they didn't adjust. They had like seven d backs at first, then sixty Backs, They didn't adjust anything at all, and then their whole offensive game plan seemed like Philip Rivers just throws the ball up in praise. So that game was over very quick. Patriots role at home, but keep in mind the Patriots on the road this year, we're just three and five

straight up. Much different team at home. And then there's the Chiefs the day before they get here by destroying the Colts. I don't know what Andrew Luck story is, but he was horrific, just absolutely miserable. You talked to Arc about that Jared golf game in Chicago where he acted like it was thirty below instead of thirty two degrees fahrenheit. That's what Andrew Luck looked like. He was

awful in that game. And then juxtaposed against Patrick Mahomes doing that side arm thing that Travis Kelsey were like, I've never seen anything like that in my life. Mahomes forty one for two, seventy eight, Damian Williams twenty five, carries a hundred twenty nine yards and a touchdown, Kelsey seven catches in a hundred and eight yards. But again that time of possession thing. Again, it was such a

weird weekend. The Patriots. They had the ball thirty eight minutes and twenty seconds against the Chargers against excuse me, against yeah, against pardon me. And then the Chiefs they had the ball for thirty nine minutes and forty nine seconds against the Colts. Colts only had it for just over twenty minutes. That was the weirdest thing about last weekend. We can go entire NFL weekends and not see one game in a full slate where a team possessed the

ball for thirty six minutes or more. All four of these winners did last week, Chiefs by three. Marco. We start, well, you know, you know I talked to when I opened the first game. I said, you know, you look at the four games last week, and you know the Saints were the least impressive of the four. We have the two most impressive squaring off right here, no question about it.

And for New England, was that the most lopsided thirteen point when you've ever seen I mean it should have been, you know, it was a score that should have been like thirty points and somehow the final score ended up to be thirteen. But here's the thing, and you know,

hindsight is always great, and we all mentioned it beforehand. Um, the Chargers looked like a team that was playing their third straight road game, fourth in the last five weeks, looked like a team that just flew from the East Coast to the West Coast back to the East coast, and they were a warm weather team playing in cold weather. But yet we all wanted to ignore it. We just that it's okay because this New England team is not that good and this is Philip Rivers best team he's

ever had. Well, don't we look like idiots now, because that's exactly what if you looked at it like, you know, unto public, would all of that team right to play in the last week's game? Same thing with the Colts. Hey, we got a dome team out in you know, a blizzard and they're playing their third game in a row on the road, and look what happened. But now it's this week and we talked about all that history that

you ran off with the Patriots. The most mind boggling part about everything you said not the fact that just how many times they've been here and their playoff record and everything else. The fact of the matter is almost

all of those games were at home. This is a team that's always had home field advantage, and I got crucified, uh the Twitter trolls, which you know, you reached a new level, uh ConTroll nous whenever guys put and you use the quotation marks and quote you from a video or a podcast something that you actually said, just to throw it back into your face. And they threw back into my face when I said the Patriots are here and have home field advantage last week simply because they

play in the worst division in football. You know, when you play the Jets of the Bills in the Dolphins place a year, that's six games that you're gonna pad your record in stats. And well they pointed that out, but you know it's still a fact. It is, and that's why they have home field. They don't have home field here. And if you go back to that game at Foxboro earlier in the year, that's the game that all of us professionals jumped on our pedestal and said,

here is where Patrick Mahomes becomes human. You know, that was his first it was his second big stage. His first big stage was the Monday night game at Denver and he led them back and had that crazy left handed throw the complete a pass. We were all at Monday Night football childling down on wings and Zeppel's guilt. Remember that his left hand, remember that. As we're dusting off powdered sugar, office shared this is the situation. He

lived to the um, the big stage. He got off to a slow start, but he didn't let it, you know, overwhelm him. He brought the team back and the only mistakes he made in the second half was scoring the last touchdown too quickly. He left a minute fifteen or twenty five on the clock. Whatever it was uh for Brady to go down and get the winning score. But if you go back and look at that game, there

were some things that you know, stood out to me. Um. They were minus one in the turnover department, No big deal there. But do you realize that when I watched that team, it didn't dawn on me. And I went back and looked at the box score. New England never got called for a penalty that entire game. Not one time they have a penalty in the game. And we

talked about home and road dichotomy. There are not two teams in the NFL that has a bigger home road dichotomy than these two teams New England offensively at home. We've talked about this with Ben Roethlisberger and Steelers of several times this year that offense for New England scores thirty three points at home, they only scored twenty one point six on the road. Defensively, New England sixteen point four at home on the road twenty four in Kansas

City is the same way. I'm going to Kansas City here. I really had a hard time with this one at the beginning. I was back and forth because you know, it's hard to go against Belichick and Brady. You know, last week was the first time that the books, I think all see than actually needed the Patriots, that they were rooting for the Patriots. There was that much money.

But I'll tell you gil last week and this is this is something I'll give a tip to the listeners that have screens that they can watch the line movement. I knew I was a loser on the Chargers about forty five minutes before kickoff, and it was too late, you know, I mean, we've given the game out. I bet in the game already. But if you watch your screen and you watch Vegas, and just watch the Vegas books everybody was sitting at four on the New England game except one book moved to three and a half.

In that book I liked I affectionately refer to as the bow Dog of the strip. Was Station's casino. That's they get. You know, they're all locals that that stations. You don't have the big guys going to stations and when everybody loves the dogs and the squares love the dog and station has to move off a four Chargers were dead in the water. I'm going with Dacy here. I think they get the job done. Um, you're never gonna be having an easy go of it going against Belichick,

but I've got Kansas City. I'll lay the points. And to be honest with you, everybody that I've talked to have power raided this game that the number should be four and a half or five. But because it's New England and Brady, we're seeing this three good bow dog reference in there. Marco, I like that old school bow dog. Yeah.

You know the fact about the home road splits We've been talking about on the podcast all year and on a numbers game at Visa, and uh, never a bigger chasm in home road splits than there has been this year with NFL teams, and I like to liken it to the NBA. You know, we all take for granted that NBA refs because the crowds right on top of them. They rule in favor of the home team because you know, they're humans. And there's makeup calls also in the NBA.

If Lebron doesn't get faut doesn't get the foul call one time down the court, he'll get it the next time. I think we saw that rampantly in the NFL this year. We saw makeup calls in the NFL all the time. Home teams just get the flags and you're not gonna you know, you're not gonna be upset. Having the home teams in these two games add that into the mix as well. One last thing about the Chargers. I was part of the Draft Kings Sports Betting National Championship last week.

I participated in it, and I was among the group of people who were not at the top but still were alive. And so on Sunday, we were all in Gopher broke mode. We were all prepared to go to zero by rollover bets and uh, you know, we're all making ridiculous bets that we would never make in real life for a chance to actually place. And those of us who had the Chargers in some form, not straight but necessarily, but also in parlays and stuff. It was

just so funny how quickly we were done. Randy McKay, who's placed in contest in top tens many times, he said before the game, he goes up to me right before he goes, well, Gil, just your average dollar parlay and with the Charges involved, let's see how this goes. And uh, five minutes later, five it's into the game, he's like, well, at least that was painless. You know. It was just such a destruction of a game. A Charger should be ashamed of themselves. Yeah. I was so

shocked at this point. Spread. And here's why. The both matchups they've played earlier in the season. Unlike the New Orleans and Rams, which are being played in the same place, this one is switching venues now. In the Ram Saints, what happened was it was a three point win pretty much right. Um, but look at the line adjustment. If you remember, the Rams went into New Orleans is two and a half point favorites in that game. They're now three three and a half point dog. That's a huge adjustment.

You look at New England in Kansas City, not much of an adjustment, pretty much home field advantage and that's it, right, Um that was shocking. More shocking than me was the fact Pinnacle went to open this game even lower and that idea lasted less than a minute, about fifty seconds it lasted. Um, So to me, I was just shocked. And whether it was the anticipation that the money was going to come in on New England, I think that's the only way I could defend that because power rating wise,

I agree. Will Marcos said, Um, I don't think any oddsmakers or even Bettingstondo gets power ratings are going to reflect at this time of the season. New England's, you know, a better team than Kansas City, and pretty much where this line opened and where it's sitting pretty much what it's telling you. I mean, they're pretty much evenly matched, if if not even shading it towards New England because Kansas City's getting no respect here for for home field advantage,

and to me, I think that's wrong. Listen, the reason New England won that game is the same reason the Saints beat the Rams. Forget the turnovers and all that. It's they ran the football and held the football. They they held the football almost thirteen minutes longer than Kansas City, New England did, and New Orleans did the same thing to the Rants. They were able to hold onto the football, have long drives and more or less dictate tempo um, and it worked out for them wonderfully. They both won

uh in this spot. I for me, it's simple. If I didn't have a future on New England, my money would be on Kansas City. Now that I have a future on New England, my money is definitely on Kansas City. I'm gonna bet that money line. Um, I'm gonna wait. I think that money line is gonna drop. I think a lot of New England bettors are going to take them on the money line. Um. I think you're gonna see a ton of New England money come in. I think the books are gonna be comfortable with that. Um.

And the reason for it is their future book. If you look at the future book for most and I know it differs from book the book, um, but exposure on the Chiefs is pretty much nil um from everything I've heard, and the exposure is New England and even RAMS in New Orleans is worse for Super Bowl winners than Kansas City. So you have to factor that in and how they're going to create the lines moving forward and how they did for this game based on that exposure.

So I think that's the reason we're seeing this lw of a line because I think they should be higher. So for me, I like Kansas City in this spot. Um, I think the rand the excuse me, New Orleans is the best team in the NFL, the best of the four remaining, but that doesn't mean you're gonna go on or win the Super Bowl. We know in the NFL they play one game, a lot of randomness involved, um, so anything could happen. But I think Kansas City is the right side here. My only fear is Andy Reid.

You know, what does he do if things don't go his way? What does he do if he falls behind like New Orleans did four team nothing last week? You know That's the only thing it scares me. Other than that, I think it's again Kansas City's game to lose. All the trendspoint in that direction. Um, like they're playing better football, and I just think New England is really overvalued in this spot coming off the wind like they did against Indianapolis.

So Kansas City, man, they're going to the super Bowl, That's what I think. And again, subarctic temperature is previously predicted. Now it's supposed to be about twenty five degrees so and that's what I want to add real quick. Sorry, I said. The second bet they made um that I saw the accounts right away and obviously is the under in New England Kansas City. Of the reason I don't pass that along is because I don't I don't moves

that are based on weather. I don't trust them because nine times out of ten, I can tell you from experience, they buy back the other side off screen about ten minutes before kickoff. Nine out of ten times. The only time they sit on the position is if it's there's a lot of wind, I mean a ton of wind, or it's just that bad like the vision, like the wind or the cold, the snow, the vision is impaired.

That's exactly what dude told me. That it's really up there when it comes to moving lines, and he said, they jumped off of these. So this line that's down the fifty five once it got the fifty five. You saw it come back up, and that's exactly what I'm saying. It's the guys that got under sixty, they're now going to go back over fifty five. So going that under sixty was not a position as far as oh we

love the under, that's where we're sticking on. It was strictly the market's going to move because of the weather. Let's get out ahead of that move and let's set ourselves up with a nice middle. And that's what happened. So don't don't don't fall into that total movement as being like, oh, they're steaming the under. As I was going to say, I'm not happy with my under position because I do have a bet on the on the

under in that game anticipating that weather. Uh, and I am now rooting for a New England first drive that ends up in nothing and then I can buy out of that. I'm not nearly as happy with that, knowing that it's twenty five degrees. And by the way, can I just say this, handicappers always judge for their record. Does anybody keep track of Weatherman's records? By the way,

someone should do this. Someone should totally do this. How bad are they I know it was like a week out, but still anyway, maybe Rufus could go on a rant ones that don't have a winning record. Yea. By the way, for for anybody who wants to hear the fallout of the sports betting National Championship controversy, I did have Rufus Peabody on a numbers game on Monday to express his side of things. And I did have Johnny Avello on from Draft Kings formerly of the Wind now at Draft

Kings on Wednesday. Both are available in podcast form. The Rufus part is on my uh feed at Beating the book Johnny Avella we had snippets from, but that's also available at Visa dot com. So interesting. Maybe I'll put those two things into a podcast at some point. People can judge for themselves, because I do not think we've heard the last of the Draft Kings National Sports Betting Championship controversy. Joe Forton Baugh New England at Kansas City.

What do you think? I will be the first to admit when I struggle with wagers and my college football record this year with right around five hundred, I could not get it going with college foot but I've had a decent season in the pros. And the reason I'm highlighting that is because the last month of the season, I've been able to follow something that I just it's one of those comfort things. Again, it doesn't require a ton of analysis. It's just the eye test, and it's

been working out for me. Left and right. There is so much recency bias surrounding the Los Angeles Chargers. It's it's it's been mind blowing to me. Go back a little over a month. The Chargers go to Kansas City on the Thursday night. They come back late to win that game after falling behind fourteen nothing in the first quarter. Then the talking narrative the next day is that the Chargers are the best team in the a f C. Watch out if they get the one seed, they're finally

going to the super Bowl. Right the next week, after all that talk, Baltimore goes to Los Angeles and beats the Chargers. That The following that game, the narrative all week was watch out for the Ravens. Nobody wants to face the Ravens in the playoffs. They're they're they're gonna be a really tough out. So you've got all these people betting the Ravens when the Chargers have to go to Baltimore. Never Mind the fact that it was obvious,

or at least to me. I I don't want to sound arragan, even though I know I'm coming across that way. Never remind the fact that the Chargers I had just seen that bullshit read option that Lamar Jackson was running. Never mind the fact that you know they had two weeks of preparation to get ready for that. Everyone up the Ravens and what happened. The Chargers went in there with the game plan and they absolutely shut down the office or the offense. So now here's the new narrative.

Oh my god, the Chargers just took out the Ravens. The Chargers team is legit, New England's old. They're gonna go to Foxborough and win. Now, let's forget about the fact that the Patriots have two weeks to get ready. Forget about the fact how the Patriots perform at home. Forget about the fact that the Chargers are going back to the East Coast for an early start time for the second week in a row. Everybody likes the Chargers

with the points. Here comes Brady destroying everybody. Everybody and like you guys mentioned, so many people uh sided with the Chargers there, and at least you were able to realize early that that it it wasn't a good bet that they were just gonna get hammered. Anthony Lynn is a good motivator as a head coach, but he's not a next as an old guy. They went into that game playing zone coverage on defense. They made zero in

game adjustments. They didn't try to do anything. They just stuck with their plan and hope that they'd be better. They have a better offense than the Patriots, they have a better defense than the Patriots. They have so much more talent than New England. But they had no chance in that game. It's like son Zoos says in the Art of War, what is it? All battles are one? Before anyone fires a shot, before anyone takes the field, all battles are one. The Chargers were dead in the

water before that game started. But now that New England took out the big bad Chargers, everyone's talking about how we shouldn't have forgot about the Patriots. We should they they eight years in a row in the a f C Championship game. They're so good how do we forget about this? Uh? You know, and you in the playoffs, the struggles and big spots. Bullshit. The Patriots are slow. Had anyone watched them play, They are a slow football team.

They're slow on offense, they're slow on defense. They've got Thrady. Yeah, but he doesn't move around the pocket the way he used to. I mean he he will slow back there. And Belichick can put together a great game plan this week, No doubt he's gonna have a great game plan. But there is so much speed on behalf of Tangas City. And you've got such a big arm in Patrick Mahomes. This is why every year at draft time you're always hearing about arm strength, because you've got to be able

to throw in the weather. You can't go to the a f C. North with a noodle arm like Cult McCoy and think you're gonna survive. You gotta be Ben Roethlisberger. You gotta be Joe Flacco. You need the big arm in the weather. Mahomes has got that. There's all this talk about weather this week. I don't think it hurts Kansas City at all. They got a big arm quarterback who can still make all the throws. We saw it

last week against Indie. Everyone thought Indie was gonna be this tough out and the Chiefs stopped them into the ground early in that game. So the way I'm seeing it here between the eye test on New England, it's just not as good a team as we've seen in the past, a slow football team. That combined with the fact that I think people are overvaluing New England based on what they saw against the Chargers last week, that recency biased thing, I can't shake it. I like New

I like Kansas City here. I like him relatively comfortably. I think they're gonna play a smart football game. They're gonna have a lot of crowd noise. They finally got the damn monkey off their back by winning a game at home. This is it. Play loose. They went to Foxborough. I mean, the Mahomes isn't gonna be afraid of the big spot. He's played in big spots all year. He

doesn't really seem to get rattled. He makes mistakes, sure, but he doesn't play like a quarterback who's starting for his first season and only second year in the NFL. I'll lay the points. I like Kansas City and I think Andy Reid trusts him implicitly. It's a different Andy

Reid with Patrick Mahomes. I think he gets that. One thing they're my San Diego excuse me, my Los Angeles Charger trajectory is that I thought they were the best team in the a f C even before that Chief's upset when they went in on a Thursday, I beat him. So when that happened, I looked like a genius with my futures tickets. And then they beat Baltimore in the playoffs again, I was all over the Charges, bigger genius. And then last week teasing the Chargers, I look like

a raging idiot. So that's how it That's how it goes. They were the they were the most talented team in the ANFC. They might be the most talented team in the NFL. But they go cheap on coaching. Yep, the Spanos family has always gone cheap on coaching, and it always comes back to bite them in the ass. They are they lack so much attention to detail. Look no further than special teams. The teams in the NFL with good special teams are the teams that pay attention to detail.

That's something that that Belichick always prides himself in you saw what happened with the Saints against the Eagles. There's this great video out there of that Saints Eagles conversion with Taysom Hill. The Saints were studying the tape of the Philadelphia Eagles punt return a team and Fletcher Cox they noticed took those plays off. He's one of the interior defensive linemen and on the tape they saw at the Bears game, as soon as the ball snapped he

just kind of stands up and waits. So when they designed that play for the Faith, they ran directly at Fletcher Cox, who stood up and didn't attack the line, and they were able to get good push and get the first down. That's attention to detail. The Chargers two weeks in a in a row had lousy teams in the in the Raiders and the Broncos convert a fake punt on them. Now, I get if you get caught sneezing once, but how the hell do you get caught the next week on another faith punt? Like, how did

you not address that all week in practice? How is that not a major focal point? The Chargers are just one of those teams Anthony Lan's a good guy and he's a good motivator, but they don't pay attention to detail. They don't make in game adjustments. And until they figured that sort of thing out there, all that talent's gonna be wasted. I'll step out even further. They were ill prepared for so many games this year. They dug themselves

holes in almost every game. It seemed like even the game where they upset the Chiefs, they were down fourteen and nothing in that game they had to overcome that. So they were ill prepared. They made no adjustments, as you point out. And here's the other thing that no one ever seems to ask. I asked Michael Lombardi this on Visa, and I asked this of Warren Sharp this morning.

Do you think that that coaching staff goes back after a game like the one about against the Patriots and they actually delve into the reasons why it happened, or do they just come out and like, well, just didn't work out, we just didn't execute. And Lauren points out they have no analytics team, like they don't even get that having seven d backs or six d backs, like,

you can't if you don't have that information. If you don't know that on a granular level, like it's probably probably more the ladder than the former, Like you just don't really understand why you truly lost the game like that, and you're just hoping Philip Rivers bails you out every time. Philip Rivers, by the way, put him in the Hall of Fame. Not his fault that that happened to the Chargers.

All right, gentlemen, So here's the deal, So look aheadline from the Westgate the Chiefs, excuse me, The Saints would be one and a half point favorites against either the Chiefs of the Patriots, and the Rams would be pick ums with either the Chiefs of the Patriots. Uh. That could change based on what happens this week, obviously injuries, based on the nature of the performance, if if one team blows out the other, or if it's a squeaker. But those are interesting lines to me. Just one and

a half on the Saints in both cases. And I don't know that it shouldn't be a coin flip with the Chiefs. If it's the Saints and the Chiefs, what might the total be in the Super Bowl? And we're used to saying all, you know, we used to having all these big bets on sides in Super Bowl history, millions of dollars on one side or the other. We've never ever had big bets on totals before, and I think that could happen come Super Bowl time, no matter who gets there, if it's certainly if it's the Chiefs

versus either the NFC opponents. Gentlemen, the schedule is this two weeks the super Bowl prop and game megapod next week. Vegas Lifestyle, A Man's Guide to Send City, the ninth annual edition, ninth ace. Do you have something planned all? Absolutely? Yeah, there's a lot of things we need to discuss. I don't like where where things are headed. Okay, I don't know. We're gonna have to put to it. I don't know what that means, but that should be fun. We'll bring

in Meltzer like Seltzer, Mark Meltzer Man about town. He's got all the information. So for those who don't know, again who've missed it the previous eight years. It's about restaurants in Vegas. It's about you know, steakhouses specifically, but restaurants in general where those of us go, the restaurants we love in Las Vegas. We do. We used to do nightclubs, but now we're all like, you know, old old cockers, so we don't do nightclubs as much anymore. We used to do day clubs. They tune in for

two things. They want to hear my steak recommendation. Then when I'm done, it's all VR. Okay, Yeah, we want to hear about strippers, dat and roll, you know where to go, you know, buying school books for girls. You know it. God, Yes, we'll WORKO was saying crescendos and I hesitate to use that word into VR going off about say, the underbelly of Las Vegas. And through the years he has given us opinions on things that God knows, we didn't even know existed. So we look forward to

that and Ace is the star of that show. So that's next week on the show. We'll probably have it out on Wednesday for Marco D'Angelo from Wager Talk, Ace out of the Sports Betty Diaspora, and Joe forton Ball once again. If you're in San Francisco in the Bay Area, or you can catch them online, it's nine point seven

the game in San Francisco. What's the website you are L for that, Joe seven the game gil no no, no no, the actual U R L for the for the radio station, Yeah, for the radio station game dot com? Thank you? Was that that difficult? Like to eight teeth Jesus, I heard the question, I was like, I've gotta be, I gotta be, I gotta be missed hearing him. I didn't mean to get audio about that. I thought, just trying to promote his his radio stations, for God's sakes.

And then and then of course it's the sharp six D covers dot com available where all podcasts are distributed. Joe does a great job on that show. What do you do? Weekly shows on that The podcast is generally it rotates between two or three a week football seas and generally about three and you know, we'll cover a lot more coming up here. We gotta get into some basketball everything else UFC. I know the Ponies are coming

up in a couple of months. Marco is always nice enough to jump onto that and hand out some winners. So it rotates. We try to get some stuff early in the week some and some stuff late in the weekend. All right, thank you, sir, appreciate your time. As always, the great Joe forton Ball our favorite through the years, no kidding, our favorite on this podcast of all time.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend, whether a f C, NFC or both, and thank you so much for living battock back tap ba bat fan batoo