Beating The Book: MLB Season Win Totals, Props, and Fantasy Baseball w/ Paul Sporer of FanGraphs

PAULI will talk about over and undervalued starting pitchers, and then we'll do the same four position players as we go around the horn. All Baseball All Show. Right here on the Beating the Book Podcast, South Point Hotel and Casino, it's Gil Alexander Power number two of the numbers game right here at bast of the Vegas Stats and Information Network series some channel to at four Visa dot Com,

the Visa app, food Boat TV, Baseball Time. We talked with Josh Towards about this yesterday, but I want to bring in my old buddy Um from fan Graphs. He works at fan Graphs, does the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. Over there. We we started talking about baseball. Me and paulse War about eight nine years ago. We had never met face to face, and then like two months ago, we're in an airport security line. Neither one of us was doing t s A. I was with my girlfriend.

She didn't have tesday, so I had to be in the you know, security line till That's how what I was rolling that day. And uh, it was this like a peasant and it was this long, long, winding, taking forever security line. And there's PAULI with his girlfriend right like just the sort of the lane behind me. And so here we are meeting for the first time, and we awkwardly had to like swerve into each other like five or six different times. And so the first time

I'm like, hey, Paul, give each other hug. Second time like, oh my god, I can't believe we we met. Third time, few small dog. Fourth time we're like hey man, a fifth time You're like, I have nothing else. It's very awkward right now. Six times like okay, bye, take care Paul Smorleys gentleman, good morning, Pauli, Gil. How's it going man? Amazing? It was an amazing way to meet too, because you know, I mentioned to you that I that I'm going to be in town. You're like, oh, you know, I'm not

really gonna be there. I'm traveling for the holidays. I'm gonna dip in for a small period of time and we meet in the line. That was unbelievable. But I gotta get back out there and and spent some quality time with you. Baseball is coming up. I am beyond excited. Yeah, what do you like? Six five? By the way, Paul, I just want to get a visual purple six correct five?

I think basically Chris Sale six five and and lean Taylor Swift, Chris Sale, that's the body type that you're thinking there, Taylor Swift, Chris all right, that's good visual right there. Um. By the way, later on the show, Tristan Thompson talking all about the Chloe Guardashian it's a lot of the people don't like. Okay, I don't have on. I'm sorry. Let's start, Matteo, what are we gonna start with here? Let's throw up some on the screen here,

let's start with home runs. Why don't we start there? Gen Carlo Stanton, he of the three hundred fifteen million dollar contract. I believe it is, but it's three hundred plus, don't don't only do three fifteen. He's the he's the top person in the market forty and a half. That's where his home run total has been set in the Bronx. Then Joey Gallo, who in some seasons has had the most interesting stats of anybody, all Homer's and then nothing else.

Pretty much sort of the Dave Kingman of his generation. If you will, Joey Joey Gallo thirty eight and a half. Chris Davis, Oakland Athletics reigning home run champ, who I had to have the most home runs two years ago at fifty one and then didn't play him last year. Way to go me? Yeah, yeah, Mike Trout thirty seven and a half, Nolan Arronado and Corps at thirty six

and a half. On down the list, j D and Aaron Judge both both at the or, she said, j D Martinez at thirty six and a a half, Aaron Judge at thirty five and a half, and then on down including Harper and Machado at thirty four and a half, along with Riese. Hoskins. Who do you like? If anybody here? Yeah, there's some tight lines, but I do think there are some interesting ones here. Uh, No one Aeronado somebody I

definitely like a plus thirty six and a half. I don't really see a scenario where he's going to be traded out. Um, you know, I know that there is some concern about that. I've heard some chatter about that in the fantasy community that they're worried that will be traded out if they're not doing well. First off, I just don't think that they're going to do poorly enough. Uh you know, I don't think that the Rockies are gonna bottom out and have to start selling off pieces.

And he's at thirty seven thirty eight the last four years, so plus thirty six and a half feels pretty good. Of course, with any of these uh sort of stat totals, you are better betting on a measure of health without a doubt, and that's a wild card. But as far as you know, if he continues to put up a hundred and fifty five plus games the way he's done each of the last four years, I don't know how no one Aeronado doesn't get plus thirty six and a half.

Homers plus thirty six apisode over on thirty six and a half, and PAULI said it right there, Mateo. And he's the first person I ever heard say it, many years ago when he was like twelve years old at the time. Staying healthy is the skill, and so for all these counting stats, you are basically if you're going over, you're betting against injury. That's how we lost the al Tuove hits over last year, for instance, we couldn't get there because he was out for a certain amount of games.

All right, let's go and move to the next one. Here, Mateo talking to Paul Spore from fan Graphs right here on the let me let me throw a couple other stockings on the homers appen. It wasn't sure if you wanted me to give him all at once. Also love J. D. Martinez arguably the best at bad craft bat hitter in the game. Plus thirty six and a half for him, you know, the more and more he stays off the field, the better it is for his health. And then two

smaller ones Matt Olsen. Matt Olson's a thirty five home run hitter and he's at thirty two and a half. I really like that one. I believe Reese Hoskins is a thirty five to forty home run hitter. As well, and so he's at thirty four and a half. So I got four overs with Eronado, j D. Martinez, Matt Olson, and Reese Hoskins. All right, four Eronado, um, j D Martinez, Hoskins, and Matt Olsen. Matt Olsen of the Oakland Athletics. Sort of, that one might be my favorite to be on it

at thirty two and a half. Okay, yeah, interesting, I did not expect you to go that way. So let's right, let's mark those down. So all overs on those four bullish he likes human achievement. Four overs there, All right, let's go to hit totals here real quick. These also provided by the west Gate this past Sunday. It is the affirm mentioned Jose alt with the most one seventy eight and a half. If Altuve stays healthy, that's a

drop in the bucket. And then easy, I mean that one, that one, That one's easy right there, if he stays healthy, I totally agree. You know, you got the surgery and everything looks like he's going to be coming out healthy. He almost got there, uh you know, given given back twenty games last year. So I definitely like that one with Altuve. If you believe that he's gonna stay healthy this year, had never really been hurt before this season. So the rebound I do like that. Out they won,

all right. And then you have in uh in order, Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackman just a hit behind him at one seventy seven and a half. That's where the market was established. Yet lets one seventy two and a half, a trio of players at one seventy and a half, tray Turner again, Nolan Arronado, and then Wit Marrifield of the Royals, and then Jean Sigura Jean Segura New Philadelphia, Philly at one sixty nine and a half. On down the line, Trout one fifty four and a half. U A.

Kunya Jr. At one sixty five and a half. Uh, Trout's gotta stay healthy. I mean all these guys do, but Trout someone who, uh you would want to stay healthy to get to that. What do you think about the rest of these guys? I mean, that's the one for me though. It's Trout, and it is it is of course a major bet on house because the last two seasons he's gotten, but before that it was five straight seasons of at least a hundred and seventy three hits,

So I feel like they're giving you a little something here. Um, and anytime I can bet on Mike Trout and and and feel like, oh, I really need to sit for him to not get another injury. You know, these have not been chronic injuries. I don't see a major issue with with Mike Trout's health profile right now. One was sliding into a base. That's kind of a fluke situation there. So yeah, I'm gonna bet on now. And that's my favorite.

That's really the only one that I dope in on outside of my liking how Tobe give me Trout over a hundred fifty four and a half hits for sure? Is there an under there that you're looking at? Is there is there one of these where like that seems way too high? None that felt way too high? Um. You know, the fantasy community has really kind of come around that went Maryorfield is kind of you know, is a legit hitter, and the things that we've seen out of him have been pretty nice. He is gonna be

aged thirties. Oh so if I am picking an under I think just kind of going against the grain on him off of a career year. Uh, you know, he was off of a career year going into eighteen two. You know, but I think just betting on him to maybe an injury is all you really need. They're not that you're rooting for injury, but one injury I think kind of derails that for went Maryfield. He had a hundred and sixty nine. Uh, a nice hit total in So I'll go under on wit Mayorfield. All right, I

just went going under on wit Mayorfield. By the way, Wit Mayorfield. It's funny that you say these things because now I'm looking up the exact number right at the current moment, Wit Maryfield still at one seven and a half. Altuve did go up one hit. So Altuve, the market agrees with you. He's at one seventy nine and a half now, it's still in over for me. Uh. And and Mike Trout did go up one hit as well. He's at one fifty five and a half, so the

market agrees with you. Here. Yeah, me too, still early, but uh, you're you're reflecting the market. Last one here, Uh, this is win totals for pictures now obviously in this day and age, especially with the the advent of the opener, and some of these h for some of these teams, but just more bullpen by the by the year um tougher for guys to get to certain win totals. Corey Kloper has been a guy that gets wins though he's

the top guy. Sixteen and a half. Then you have Sales, Severino, carrasco Verlander and Scherzer murderers row All at fifteen and a half, and then uh Snell and Nole at fourteen and a half, and then a six a sex head if you will, Pitchers to Graham, Cole Price, Kershaw, Paxton Bower thirteen and a half. Kershaw is an interesting one because to me he's not even the ace of that staff anymore. And I've sort of been barrished on. I know, I know it's sacrilege. Um. What do you like here

over under? You know, I didn't really think i'd like much of this um, but but I ended up with five names that I kind of like. First off, I think the gram's kind of a layup. You know, they got a lot better the way he pitched last year. He probably deserved like dirty Winds yea, he was that good. Put him on like a league average offense, and he seriously would have won like twenty three games probably, So thirteen and a half is kind of a gift there.

I'll definitely take that one. I'll go under on a couple of thirteen and a half's John Lester and Za Granky Lester. You know they're both getting up there in age. The Lester one is a bet against him and the Cubs, whereas the Grinky one is a little bit of a bet, more against the Diamondbacks than him specifically. I just said that they don't have a great situation over there. I think they're gonna be kind of a middling team, and uh, you know, I think that's gonna be under for Zac

Granky and then two overs on the lower end. I love Jamison tie On this year and think he's poised for a massive year. So over eleven and a half feels pretty big for me. Like, I love that one. I think even if he just repeats what he did last year, well, obviously if he just repeats to get fourteen, but I mean skills wise, I mean, just repeats what he did last year, tie on the lock for that

eleven and a half. And you mentioned the opener and right now they've said that Charlie Morton won't get an opener necessarily, but if he does, then nine and a half isn't is an absolute lock because then he's coming in in the second inning. So I would almost love for Charlie Morton to get an opener. He is a five six inning kind of guy, he's getting older, he's great. But slap an opener on the front there and Charlie Morton could win sixteen seventeen gay of so plus nine

and a half. That's easy peasy for me, easy peasy. I like that the the angle that the opener actually helps story because you uh, as you say, slap it inning there off the top um, so you think that's actually better for the for him getting the win um, which is yeah, it makes sense. Again, this is so much of modeling with baseball is how many times you

go through the lineup. And the whole story with the opener is that opener faces the first three batters and then it starts with the number four batter technically for for what would be the would be starter? Yeah, ideally what for the would be starter if you will, um. So it's a whole complicated puzzle a whole different way to calculate these things these days. Good stuff right there. So you're give me your your best over and your

best under and all that. My best over would be give me Jamison time, because we don't know if Charlie Morton is going to get an opener at plus eleven over eleven and a half. And my best under is John Lester thirteen and a half. I think I think I'm over to grum. I think is my number one over. I like the Lester call as ll uh coming back Paul Sport from fan graps at sporer s p O r e Er on Twitter. We'll talk American League season wins,

National League season wins. We've been getting some futures. I don't love futures pre flop for lots of reasons which I'll talk about. But we'll get police take on all of that. It's next on a numbers game right here at Visa. Back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa Studios in Las Vegas.

Back on the numbers game. As the man said, right here at Visa, Matt Jones and I already again we've set the over under on Bryce Harper being signed by whatever team fifteen minutes what was it, twenty two minutes after the show Pacific. Everything always goes down right after the show, just like Macado yesterday. So well we assume that, uh, that will happen with Harper this morning. A virtual lock back with Paul Sport from fan Graps still doing Sleeper

in the Bus that podcast. PAULI the award winning Sleeper in the Bus. Wee We won an award a couple of weeks ago from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. So very happy about that. We're pumping them out. We're in full We're in a full ladder over there, getting ready for the season. Absolutely. Congratulations, man, that's awesome. I have always said that if first of all, no one likes anything as much as Paul loves baseball. Uh again, what was it? I said, you love baseball as much as

people love their cats. When I said dogs, you said, don't go crazy, don't go crazy with dogs. I love my dogs. You love your cat. You don't love your cat as much as Paul loves baseball. You don't I love baseball more than you love your cat. That's right, definitely, well, you definitely love baseball. More than my cat loves me. That's that's well, that's that's not hard. That's the problem. See, cats they're they're they're mean. That's why dogs are better.

But we don't need to get into that because I can do a whole mean spirited UM. Matt's can. I don't know what I know anybody else's um. But that is the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. The Sleeper in the Bus podcast is a deep dive into baseball. Do you guys still like what's your average length podcast? Oh, we've been putting up some some gems here in the off season. We definitely go an hour plus, but with these position previews we're clocking to two plus hours. We

try to break it up. So if you added up the two parts of say the first base preview, we legitimately got five hours of fantasy first base and it's it's been kind of wild. But whenever we apologize to you know at the end, like oh you know, sorry, that's went long, guaranteed we get five six tweets or more saying no, no no, no, We like it when it's when it's super long, keep keep going. It's all good. So you know, people break it up obviously, you're not

getting it done in one commute. You've got it to kind of listen to over the course of a few days. So people like it, and so we're just gonna get where we're long form. That's what we do long form. I like that. I get the same thing the other day when I was doing Pythagrian theorem and base runs and one run outcomes talking about season win totals. There's always your right I apologize, I do the same thing. I'm like, yeah, I know that's a little little too

much in the weeds for some people. There's always five or six people like no, no, no no, no, no no, please please please do do more of that. All right, let's do Let's do American League here first, PAULI. Let's do season win totals on American League teams, and we'll just I'll throw out the East here first, and you can just tell me by division, is there an over under that you love or do you have a lean or do you have nothing. Let's start with the American League East,

and we'll do it um. Whenever you want to throw up here, mateo. If you want to do Caesar's or Westgate, we'll throw them up on the screen. At Visa dot com. The visa happen with Fobo TV. But obviously it's the Red Sox who had a lot of I was pointing out the other day, a lot of uh overachievement versus their pythag last year eight win team in your standings during the regular season. But they're about a nine win team. Still great, right, Uh, here's here are the Caesar's numbers. Uh,

it's the Yankees who have the most. They've gone up from ninety six and a half tone the Red Sox, who I was talking about both from a Pythagrian theorem base runs perspective, even if one run outcomes perspective, UM. As great as they were World Series champs, probably it shouldn't have been a one eight win team. That doesn't mean that they're not good at baseball. Their season win total for next year starts out at ninety five and

a half. It is dropped to ninety four and a half at Caesar's raised from eight five and a half to eighty four, Jays from seventy six and a half to seventy four, the Orioles from fifty eight and a half. You have the Westgate numbers. Those don't vary that much. The Red Sox are the one team in baseball where the difference is the most a two game difference, so here they are from the West. We just flashed him up, so the right around there, So anything in the A

at least over or under, sir. Yeah, I'm I'm a little little bearish on the Red Sox as well, coming off obviously the big World Series win. Uh you talked about the Cammeberell situation. They they're saying now that they're not going to bring him back. I don't know what they really got going on in their bullpen. I know you can kind of build a bullpen on the fly, but I don't love what they've got, So I'm gonna go under on the Red Sox and over on the Race.

I like what the Rays have done. Obviously, they had that nine season last year that unfortunately really didn't result in anything because of the difficult division that they're in. Could be the same thing this year. They could put up, you know, an eight win season and still find themselves at home if another team in probably and probably have to be the A L West because I don't know that anybody's going to emerge in the AL Central to take the second wild card, but the same thing could

happen again. I like a lot of the moves that they made. They already mentioned Charlie Morton. They've got some depth of pitching. Brent Honeywell is eventually going to come back. They're always working the edges to improve their team. So they don't even need to repeat their ninety because they're giving us a number of eighty four and a half. So down on the red sox, up on the rays,

down on the red sox, up on the rays. Interesting to note that the Orioles at fifty nine and a half is right where it ought to be, so we're right. So we're right in that pocket. Uh, let's go to the al Central. Obviously, the Indians. I'm I'm very bullish on the Indians. I tend to be in recent history all the time. Um, they're at one again. If you base it on stuff like with Agrian theorem and base runs, they were probably a better team last year than their

record indicated. I can tell by your reaction you may not agree with this. Uh, Twins at eighty four right now? These are via Caesar's white socks seventy five and a half Royal seventy, Tigers sixty eight, and again the Westgate numbers really right in those pockets. Not much difference between them and those at Caesar's. Currently, what do you like? What do you not like? Here? Gil? You know who's playing center field for the for the Indians for April and may me you got I'm going I'm going in

man because they didn't have any outfield. There's the hell o raffle for whoever the heck wanted to do it. I said, you know what, I'll run it out down thirty seven. I'm trashed, but I can't be any worse than what they got. They don't have an outfield. I don't understand what the heck this team is doing. They're sitting on their hands. Now here's where the tough part

comes in, because I really hate Cleveland for October. But I don't know that I can go aggressive on the under because they are that they're They're pitching is so strong that they can kind of coast and that division is is pretty crummy. Um, But don't sleep on the Twins. They've had a good season. If I really wish, obviously that the White Sox would have gotten a Machado or a Harper. I don't think they're gonna get Harper. I think Machado was the one that they were angling for,

and I thought they could have made some noise. Uh. You know, I don't have a whole lot of love for the Royals of the Tigers. They're not going to be super challenged in the regular season, so that's probably a good number that they have there where they got wins. But I really don't like this team, and I think that they're living by a thread. Uh, they don't have

an outfield. I'm not impressed with what they've done. That pitching is great, but when you're fully built on pitching, you know, little little injury bug strikes the club and all of a sudden you're looking at like an eight seven wins and that could still win the division. So I it's a soft under on Cleveland. I just don't like what they've got and I definitely hate them for October. So there's no universe where I would bet them for

World Series or a l futures. Yeah, I give you the outfield, I really, I mean, no Tyler Naquin right, no Leonis Martine to start things off at all and in Yeah, Greg Allen is in there, and I don't know who else besides Greg Allen, really who slots in exactly anything else with Twins, White Sox, Royals or your beloved Tigers. No, my beloved Tiger sixty nine and a half nights. That's that's that's about what it's gonna be.

Twins are kind of sneaky, but they put them at at over eight already, so I don't know, I can't really get two hypes there. So now it's a it's a pretty well well structured division there as far as the wind total scope, because even Cleveland, I can't really express my disdain for them at a nine total. If they had a more in the nine three plus range, I'd be hammering the ender. Okay, so so not even

so not even a play on the Indians. Then you're a little too alright, so nothing in the central, but you like so far it's the Red Sox under in the raise over correct, All right, Let's go to the ale West real quick here before the break um Astros of course ruling the roost ninety six and a half. Right now it's Caesar's and then it's everybody else. Let's face it angels right in the Angels kind of pocket there, PAULI low eighties eighty three at Caesar's. I think it's

a little less at Westgate. Athletics just changed right there on the screen, eighty two and a half Athletics a D three and a half. And then there's the Mariners and the Rangers. This is interesting on the Mariners, right, because if I go to Pythagrian theorem and base runs and one run outcomes, particularly extra aning outcomes last year where they were fourteen and one with Edwin Diaz closing.

I mean, that's insane, right, They're they're at seventy, so even if you even if you factor in all those things, they become sort of a baseline seventy eight win team from last year. But ob obviously they've purged there at seventy. Do you feel any which way about them or any other team in this division? I do like because I was kind of looking at that same one there too, where I don't know that they're a seventy win kind of team because they purge all out of their talent,

but not to bottom out and rebuild. Really, it's more of a retool and they're trying to they're almost kind of trying to go Tampa Bay raised with with no name guys, you know, telling the big name for some of the no names stuff. And they have some name guys, you know, Jay Bruce and and Edwin and Canarcon. But no, I think I'm gonna go over on the Mariners there.

And I'm surprised that I feel that way. But it's you know, based on where the number is, I actually lean closer to saying they can beat that seventy You really only need obviously, you only need a seventy one win season, but I think they can definitely do that. Uh, They've priced the Angels and Athletics pretty tightly. It's tough. I like both those clubs. You know, we're big on the A's last year, they came through for sure. Uh you know, no, they're not sneaking up on anyone this year.

The Angels are the one that I I am vascillating on right now. Wouldn't you say they that's a tough one. Um. I do think that they've got a good club. They're they're pitching is a little bit fragile health wise, for sure, but I like a lot of the moves that they've made. Uh, you know, taking gambles. I know he's already got a glut strain or whatever, but that's nothing for Harvey Trevor K. Hill like it's injury gambles that they've taken. I like signing Cody Allen. I think he can bounce back. That

lineup is deep. I wish I had just a little bit more confidence in their pitching. They should go out and sign Kimbrill and then I would, oh my god, I would love that. Of course their number would go up, but I think they're a good fit. So I have a slight lean on the Angels over, just because I think once so Tony gets back, that lineup runs really deep, and they're pitching is playable. So I wouldn't hammer that one by any stretch. But the Mariners one, I would.

I would put a real beat over. And that's the thing about Kimbrill too. He really would move these markets in a way that I'm not sure even Bryce Harper does. Quite frankly, at least it wouldn't have book, you know, so, um so Mariners over is the big one there. Yeah, okay, all right, we'll do the National League Paul Sport fan graphs. We'll get to it maybe some futures at the end as well. Right here on a Numbers game at Visa.

Back to a Numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. Duke and North Carolina again tonight, we were talking about Duke Carolina some forty years ago. What are they like? What's one oh two to one on one in the last two hundred three games some some ridiculous number, and Duke has outscored Carolina by three points. Don't hold me to the one two, one on one, but basically it's it's almost five or one. Team Carolina has one game

up on Duke. Might be one and like the last a hundred and three games, but Duke's outscored them by three points in that process. That's how close that rivalry has been through the years. Talking baseball with Paul Spore right here from Fan Graphs. Let's go to the National League. Let's try to get some season win totals. Let's start in the East, maybe the most interesting division at all of baseball this year and maybe the most top heavy. Uh.

Apologies to the Marlins, apologies to you guys. At sixty four wins, but everybody else Nationals maybe better without Bryce Harper at eight eight and a half currently at Caesar's Braves, defending National League East champs with ninety wins. Last year they got eight seven. The Mets, who have done the opposite of the tear down. They're like, we're winning now there at eighty six, and then there's the Phillies at

eight seven. Just moved up there on the screen. We reverse the order, Phillies eighties seven, anticipating perhaps Bryce Harper coming to play at Citizens Bank anything here, because they're all but the exception, with the exception of the Marlins, obviously, they're all pretty much right in the same pocket. Yeah, that that's pretty tight, and it is tough. It's definitely something that if I if I were going to jump in, it wouldn't be at at a major bet. But I

do kind of like the Phillies. I like jumping in before potential harpersonic because I really do think they are going to get him, So I think I might make a little small play there. And as much as I like the praise, particularly as a long term situation, I do think that last year was kind of the beginning of a of a nice open window. That doesn't mean

that it's a straight upward trajectory. I feel like this year they could kind of bounce back down a little bit, maybe have the proverbial sophomore slump, but as a team, and it's it's really you to that starting pitching. Now.

The tough part there's they have so much starting pitching in the minors that if some of these guys that they currently have, like Tehran and Newcombe and and Tucson, who I like it probably more as a reliever because he's a little bit wild than it doesn't have a great depth of arsenal, they can replace them with so many guys. So again, I I can't get super excited and bet the under there. But that's that's my lean with the Braves is under over with the Phillies. I

feel stronger about the Phillies than the Braves. It's just such a tight division. Though they're gonna beat the heck out of each other. Honestly, I think the best moves probably to just go under on the Marlins because every team is gonna pummel them, and we should probably have prefaced it. I probably buried the headline last year before the season Uh, PAULI was very bullish on the Braves when very few people were, And I would say you were the only person, because I did hear a couple

of our other experts talk braves. You were the only person I heard that was super bullish on the athletics. And you hit that in spades as well. So obviously your your words weigh heavily here. Let's go to the central where you have a a a team in the Cubbies that based on Pakoda versus season win totals in

the betting market is the widest gap. So in the betting markets, you got the Cubbies at eighty nine at Caesar's right around there at the West Gate as well, which you have in your hand, Cardinals eighty eight and a half. Obviously, Paul goldschmant one slotted right there in the three spot in that lineup this year, Brew Crew at eight seven and then the Reds at seventy nine, the Pirates at seventy seven and a half. Um, Pakoda Cubs now below eighty Paul, how do you feel about them? Yeah?

I I tend to lean closer to Pakoda than than to the betting markets. There. I'm just not really in on. The Cubs kind of mentioned it a little bit with the John Lester situation. Uh, it's an old rotation. Um, it's weird. Like I I like aspects of it. I think Darmish can bounce back, have a nice diasy someone I'm I'm drafting in fantasy. But the rest of the rotation is really starting to get up there in age. You've got a couple of thirty five year olds. You've

got pretty much everyone I think north of thirty. Hendricks might be or thirty himself. Um, the lineup is hardly bad. In fact, there's some improvement potential there with a few guys namely Ian Happ and Wilson and Trais getting back on track. But I also think that there's uh, you know, gonna be some comeback on somebody like a Jabier by it. I think my biggest issue with this ball club is their bullpen. I like, I actually like their main asset, Pedro Stroke. I think he's gonna kind of hold the

closer's job all year. I just don't believe in Brandon Morrow's health at all. But it's a thin bullpen and they're they've really tightened the purse strings. They're crying poor here. They they've had a quiet offseason as they cried poor. These Chicago Cubs are gonna try to convince us that they don't have any money. That's hilarious. Uh So hopefully they they suffer the consequences. They're tightening the purse strings and take bosses. That's a very difficult division. That's another

reason that I don't really like them. So I'm gonna go under on the Cubbies there at eighty nine and a half pretty easily because they can still be a quality even playoff team and not go eighty nine and a half. So that's an easy under there. Definitely agree there, Brewers difficult to jump back in on the team that had kind of the big season, the big dream season. They're going ninety six wins, but they only got him at eighty six and a half. I don't see them

losing ten wins. The main reason is because, yes, the bullpen is gonna regress, because anytime you get that good of a bullpen, it's gonna come back to the pack. I like their rotation to sneak tip be an asset this year, whereas last year they kind of meandered through it and and and muddled around with some of these guys and and pieced it together. I think this year it could be a strength. Jimmy Nelson coming back for

a full season. I really like him, some youngsters like Brandon Woodriff, Corbin Burns, and then they have a lot of that that solid, if un spectacular, you know, the guys that they had last year, like you leash Shot seen Chase Anderson, Zack Davis kind of at the back end. So I like the Brewers still at plus eighty six and a half, and they priced the Reds very fairly, so I wanted to be like hardcore in on them,

but seventy nine and a half pretty good. I do think there are five ball club though, so I will put a little one on the Reds as well. I love what they've done this offseason. They were kind of a sneak tip offense last year that people probably didn't realize what's very good. I mean, your audience knows because they're in the numbers. But they had a good offense last year and they've added some pitching. So I'll go with the Reds as well for a small bat. All right,

Cubs under though, I'm with you, that's sort of. I don't want to say anything's in auto fade, but that's about as close to it gets. You almost just on principle, have to go under if you're doing this by by the Numbers, talking to Paul Sport from Fan Graphs, also the host of their co host of the award winning Sleeper in the Bus podcast, Let's go to the West in the National League real quick here, Dodgers World Series,

Bridesmaid last two years, it's a championship or bust. They're at ninety three and a half right now at Caesar's. The Rockies, who I always find interesting when it comes to season in totals because no matter what, uh, although I will say last year wasn't a sweat for Rockies overs, it wasn't. They cruised into a too and over last year there are eighty five and a half over at Caesar's. Then you got the Padres again with Manny Machadow up seventy eight and a half. We'll check with that number,

is it right now? Exactly? The Back's Giants both at seventy four and a half. By the way, shout out Bruce Bocci, who was retiring at the end of the season three Times World Series Champion Manager four the Giants ineen, what sticks out for you here? Not a whole lot

another another division that's kind of well priced there. I think the Rockies will be a solid team yet again, but I don't know that they're necessarily added wins, so um, they wanted what they win last year, uh, and they got them for and they got him for eighty four and a half. So I mean, I could see a small play on the over there because I don't think that they're necessarily gonna come all the way down to

eighty four. I think they're more of an upper eighties win team, so kind of like what the Rockies are doing there. Um again, I don't think they're gonna fall apart and start trading pieces, which is a concern for some folks, but I just don't see it. But my main play in the West would be the Giants under seventy three and a half. Obviously, this is priced with the pieces that they have because they didn't make any moves to start selling off anything. And I know that

they've been rumored on Harper. In fact, even today there's another report that says that they're kind of been I don't want to get off on a whole tangent. But why in God's name would Bryce Harper go to that stadium for his prime I'm sorry, Like, the stadium is beautiful, the city's great, you know nothing. I'm not shading San Francisco, but I'm shading their park as a left handed power hitter, and the state of their team. They have no farm system,

like they need to tear it down. So the fact that they're even talking to Harper is so delusional it's not even funny. But yeah, they've got all these old pieces that they haven't sold off yet, so that's why they got seventy three and a half. This should be a sub seventy win team. So I'd on a hammer the under with the Giants there. I think that they're going to move some of these pieces, including Madison bum Garner in season once they realize that they're not good.

Madison bub Garden Sai. If you put an opener in my games, I'm walking off the I'm walking out of the stadium right at that moment. It's such an unnecessary tough talker. Nobody was going to put an opener on the game, dude. They don't put openers on stud so just shut your mouth, stop a tving, and go pitch. No one was threatening you with an opener. So true, you're a TV uh shot at Madison bub Garner, who of course is a World Series legend. Let's just point

that out. But everybody in the bag, oh man, that hurt. That hurt to hear them as a sub seventy team. And I think you're right about Bryce Harper. Listen, I would love I spent most of my adult life in San Francisco. I'd love to see Bryce Harper in Giant's uniform. But not for one second, Paul, have I believed it would ever happen. I always thought that was just noise. We'll come back with PAULI will do little futures here at the end, wrapping it up on a numbers game

right here at Visa. Now back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our studios in Las Vegas. Remember, when it comes to finding value, price shopping always key. Whether you're buying a car or making a sports bet, you always want to make sure you're getting the best number. That's how this works, and a props whip you'll find the best numbers on futures props,

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Speaking of futures, Paul Sporer here from fan Graphs in our remaining minute. Here, PAULI the futures market. I always say this about about Baseball. I say it about other sports, but primarily in baseball. Pre flop futures suck in terms of bang for your buck, wait till there's a swoon, and then jumping on a team that you had a conviction on. I did it with the Dodgers last year when they were sick. Steen in twenty six timed it perfectly,

almost got to the promised land. Didn't quite work out, but you get much more value at that point in the pre flop market. Here the Red Sox, actually the Astros and the Yankees at six to one, the Red Sox, and the Dodgers at seven and one, all the way down to is the biggest longest shot on the board the Orioles, of course, uh two thousand and one, um any any value pre flop on this real quick. It's tough. I totally agree with you. It's not something I necessarily

like to get into the Mets. I'm kind of bought in on what they did. I'm trying not to get two bought in on it, because you know, you don't always want to go with the team that kind of wins the off season. But I really like a lot of what they've done after they did the canoe move. I want to see if they would do other stuff or just kind of sit on that, And they've done

a whole lot of other stuff that I like. But again, that division is tough because I also like the Gnats, and you know, you got those two teams bus Phillies and Braves. It's really tough when there's four strong teams to want to bet on the team winning the entire thing coming out of that division. So it's really difficult. I'm gonna go to the Brewers again. I'm kind of staying on them after what they did last year. I mentioned them in the win totals plus sixteen hundred for

the World Series. I think that that offense is still good even with the regression that you're gonna put for some of the guys who broke out like Aguilar and yelloch Um, and I think that the rotation improving is going to make up for some of the bullpen regressing. So the Brewers are my favorite one, and then probably the Mets and Nets. I might pick my favorite between those two and put a little something on that if I were going to be in this market, but I'm

like you, I'd rather not. There are other avenues where I can kind of get in and express my interest on these teams, besides putting a Futures World series. Pet Paul, I love you, Thank you. Man. Appreciated support for today's show has always comes from Bookmaker dot eu and Industry Leader for close to thirty years. And again, if you visit bookmaker dot eu slash gill that's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L, you can claim your exclusive welcome bonus up to three hundred dollars right now. It's

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the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gill Alexander. It is Kill Alexander. Good morning to Everybody's series sext some channel to a four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Fubo TV. It is a numbers game right here where sports betting analytics live, actionable sports betting information. Matt Jones is here as well. Good morning, mateo, Hey mateo, who took a I want to let you know? Yeah, please, Yesterday I was a little distracted during the show. There's

some stuff going on. I understand. Yes today, locked in, I'm ready to go. It's a different mateo, a different mateo turning over a new leaf. You are forgiven for being distracted. There was other stuff going on in the world. I understand, good stuff. I too may have been somewhat distracted with screens on here in the uh in the studio as as a crawl the old chiron for would would give highlights of some things that were happening at

the hearings that had national interests. Not today though, Oh no, we're all about um two things. Bill Krackenburger coming up. Second hour. We always love when the crack man's in studio. Lord knows what we'll talk about, who knows. We'll do a little degenerate Olympics on Kyler Murray. We'll talk about what his measurements came back in. This is what our world has come to that we care about Kyler Murray's hand size, is weight, his height. It's important stuff, very

important stuff, very important. An inch could make all the difference. And let me tell you, he just he just just draft stock, just went high and hire today. We'll do that Greg Peterson little instant offense, little college basketball picks in the second hour as well. He'll he'll just we'll sort of do a break and have like Greg Peterson for five minutes just spewing out college basketball picks. And I do think spewing is the correct verb when speaking

of Greg Coops Peterson. We'll do that next hour. But first, Uh, he is our old time friend talking baseball with us all the time, and uh, we're gonna talk to him. We've We did a whole bunch of stuff with him already, season wins, futures. What else did we do? We did props, certain props. We'll have more props with him today. We'll do Cy Young Award, A L and n L which

is released over at the Westgate. But we want to talk fantasy baseball for those who are in leagues and want to know a position by position breakdown pictures and then around the horn, ladies and gentlemen. He's our guy from fan Graphs, also the co host of the Sleeper in the Bust podcast, which is hosted over there at fan Grafts. Our buddy Paul Sport, Good morning, PAULI, Good

morning Gale. How's it going. It's going very well. You don't mind also if in through through your appearance here, if we also do a is Rob Manfred crazy thread every once in a while, you know the answer is gonna be yes every time. But sure, let's let's let's go back and forth on that. All right, Let's start with one, which is what we were dealing with the

other day, before we get into the other stuff. Rob Manfred uh decided the other day that Major League Baseball decided they didn't want people here in Nevada betting on preseason baseball games and a spring training baseball games. Actually extended it to other jurisdictions now as well. Uh, and we here in Nevada are like, uh, yeah, pick the sport with the lowest limits. Uh. First of all, it was only in Nevada, which made no sense that he was going after it. What in the world, like he

came out of nowhere. Why does Rob Manfred care that people are betting on spring training baseball games? I don't know. And this this seems to be a kind of a constant with Rob where he gets his attention focused on the absolute wrong and dumbest things to try to, you know, for example, going to the picking up the pace of play and then and then instituting the intentional walk thing

that doesn't do anything, that doesn't help it. So you're not addressing the problem, you know, if you're worried about any potential old corruption, which I don't think again with with with the with the what athletes make these days, there's just not that much potential for corruption and stuff. But going after spring training betting like it's such a

nothing factor. I've really I really soured on Manfred as a commissioner, and I'm greatly concerned with him at the Helm for twenty one negotiations, um, because I just I don't trust his judgment right now. He's given me nothing to feel that his judgment is worth while. You know, he gave up the pitch clock thing, um, which I think was stupid too, because I think that's one of

those things that people make a big deal about. And I know some of the old timer guys, um, you know, the top dogs usually come out and say stuff against it, like Sherzer and and Justin Berlander and type of guys like that, And I get it, you know, they're locked into something. I totally understand that. But they would barely notice it a week into the season. That's like how quickly it would be. I see it every year at

the Arizona Fall League. I don't even notice it now, like it's not a thing I've seen anything now for the last two or three years at the Arizona Falling I think I've seen two balls and they're from the same guy, Justice Sheffield, and it was in the All Star Game, and I think maybe he was just taking his time a little bit to regroup and ended up ended up running out the clock twice. But it's a nothing factor, and so him giving that up to I

just I don't know what the heck he's doing. I don't trust his judgment, and I'm nervous about the game with Manford at the Helm. Yeah, I I when he first appeared, I remember I was at the Sloan Sports Conference at the at M I T And by the way, shout out to the Sloan Sports Conference which begins tomorrow and goes through Saturday. They have stolen Matteo. They have stolen our hashtag a numbers game. So for the next two days everybody at the conference will be seeing our

videos on this show. Thanks for the free pub you know, so thank you, Thank you, Daryl Morey. By the way, Darryl Mourray will also be rocking my one of those idiots who believes in an lytic shirts as well. Uh as well. So it's a little uh, it's a little You have a shirt that says that I heard the clip. Yeah, it's for my buddy Tim Lawson. You want one of those shirts, we'll get it to you, of course I do. Yeah, all right, Darryl Morrie, me and you, we're gonna start

trend on this, all right, So let's start. Well, we'll continue with Rob Manford later because I do agree with you. I think he is approaching He'll never approach Goodell status, but he is going. He's going in the Bettman direction, away from Adam Silk. Yeah, away from him, Yeah yeah, way from Adams part of the spectrum. Although Adam Silver's gotta stop those players only broadcast. Let me just throw

that in there, because those are all right. So let's start with starting pitchers, because this is where you made your Hey so many years ago, Paul used to passport right here from Fangraphs. Paul used to write this just unbelievably dense starting Pitchers guide before. I mean, what were you like eight years old, nine years old at that time when you wrote that? Guy, it's amazing, I'm old.

That's the thing that you forgive is that you know I was in my twenties doing that because I'm third seven now, despite the fact that I don't necessarily look that that old, but yeah, I was doing that. I started on a message board, turned it into a PDF, ended up becoming a little something. Uh you know, it's how we met via that, and so starting picture guide always going to have a soft spot in my heart, but it owned the winter and so it's hard to do that with a full time gig. And so that's

the main reason that it has gone by the way. Yeah, that was too much. I understand. Now you actually have employments as though there you can't do it. You can't do everything anymore. But now the one thing you you are great at here is still. We're gonna break down fantasy positions for league long players. Now, how do you do this? Because there's different formats in leagues? Do you want to do it by tier? How? I leave it to you? Yeah, I mean so usually I focus on

rodo rotissary, the five five by five categories. Um, I know, I've been wit points leagues. The differences aren't that stark that that one can't work for the other. But I think the still roto is more popular. So we can go, uh, we we can go with that as a format, and then we can go however you want, Like, are you looking for some for some sleepers? You want to run down the entire obviously we can't go down a hundred and fifty pictures. What do you want to do? I

can definitely cater to what you've got here. I got my list ready to go. Let's do it this way. Let's just go overachievers and underachievers, So overvalued and undervalued, if you will. So let's start with the pictures. And I guess we haven't been that far into any draft season where we can really get an exceptional average draft position at this point. You'd be surprised. You would be surprised.

The National Fantasy Baseball Championships been running leagues all winter, and they're definitely uh, there's definitely enough data that I can look at and and have some some real thoughts on that and in fact, what I'll even do. Just since February one, they've got enough data that I can kind of look here and uh and and make some judgments. So we got we got enough data for that. Okay, all right, So let's do the overvalued starting pitchers right

now nineteen fantasy baseball drafts, all right. So I'm gonna put too kind of off to the side, because they're their prices are constantly evolving, and they could they can actually start to push down towards under value. And obviously, with all the Kershawn news, if you're gonna look at his a DP right now, you're gonna say, oh, that's too high, But of course it was without the benefit of all the bad news and so um, you know, he's definitely going to come down and it's gonna be

interesting to kind of see where he lands. Like I said, he could actually shift into a value. I was among those who are saying, stay on the Kershaw train. He's Clayton Kershaw. Then we got this bad news to open spring and it's it's it's a little less interesting, uh, to stay on that bandwagon. But if the price gets to a certain point, you better believe that I'm gonna buy Clayton Kershaw at a discount. Madison Bumgarner same sort of deal where he's kind of fluctuating wildly. So those

two are kind of off to the side. A few guys that I don't really like, Uh what include I'm a little bit nervous on Trevor Bauer, and I feel bad because I'm on a Stat's oriented. It's funny, by the way, I'm gonna contradict myself down the line, just a little heads up there, but uh, I'm a little I'm the Stat's Oriented show to say that it's a

bit of a gut feel. And what it is with Bauer is that he's so good at kind of figuring things out and tinkering that I'm worried that he out tinkers himself at some point during the season and kind of loses loses the greatness that we saw this past year. It was his first great year. He was short by it. Yeah, I'm not he He's always been that way though, hasn't he? Like even didn't that sort of get him run out

of Arizona? That he was like that and he was sort of uncoachable to them exactly, And that's why he took so long to break out, I think, because he would just kind of guardrail to guardrail, tinker things. And he was a decent picture, perfectly capable, like number four starter for several years, and then last year had the ace turn. So I'm just a little worried that he might eight push back to like a you know, a quality three R A and one tip Like there's nothing

wrong with that. But he is the ninth pitcher off the board. He's a top thirty pick, and so that's where that concern. It's not a bust concern, it's a you're drafting an ace and getting a number three type of deal. So I got a little bit of concern with Trevor Bauer. And again, it's not a great statistical thing. It's more of a gut thing. Um z Granky is one.

It's like it's a hot potato. I know he comes in the spring every year throwing like seventy one on his fastball and everyone breaks out and then he ends up doing his thing. Um, I just don't want to be holding that hot potato. Right, I've gotten enough great that Granky seasons of my own. I don't think it's prices over the top as the pitcher at sixty eight pick like, it's that's not so egregious that I think someone's crazy for doing it, But there's so many pictures

around him that I'd rather have that. Like I said, it's the hot potato. You hang onto this one because it is going to come down at some point, and I just don't want to be left holding the bag on Zac Grinky understood. So again, Paulie not saying these guys are bad at baseball, just saying they're being overdrafted. Currently, Trevor Bauer Zach Grinky for the reasons stated, how about how about a couple. I mean, you may have some more names on the overside. If you want to, you

can just listen. But how about some under drafted players, players that are undervalued. Yeah, the under the unders where where I love to live, and so I'll definitely get in on some of that. I like Nathan Levaldi. I really like the changes that he made last year. That

cutter was absolutely amazing. And one of the big differences in fantasy baseball these days is that with so few guys actually going two hundred innings, somebody like a Nathan Levaldi, who you can really only plan for about a hundred and thirty innings. He might get more, but you can't plan for that. You can't think get into your projections.

But that's okay because so many guys kind of live in the one, twenty two, one seventy range that a really sharp a hundred and twenty five minutes from Nathan Eovaldi could be like a top thirties starter and he's going off the board at like fiftie among starters. Do you worry that he ends up being a closer in Boston? Well, I'll tell you what if he became a closer for fantasy,

that wouldn't be a problem. If he became a middle reliever, more of a Josh Hayter type, that would be a little bit of an issue, but even that would still be usable. Again, with the way the game is going. Back in like five years ago, even a Josh Hayter as good as he was would be available on the waiver wire in some leagues because he wasn't getting saves, and like a middle reliever like that just wasn't that valuable because so many starters were out there getting a

d eighty puts innings. Nowadays, that's valuable. So I think whatever role they put the evolve the in he can be useful. I'd almost almost perform as a closer because he would be so devastating and racking up saves, and most leagues still use saves, So I will take it whatever hybrid role they want to use for him. I'm in Another one I really like is Joe Musgrove out in Pittsburgh. Really impressive. You know, when that Garrett Coltrane happened,

I thought it was a win win deal. I was really, really really excited about what Cole could do with Houston, and he of course, was amazing, and I thought they did not get ripped off for him though. Joe Musgrove is a really strong picture and he showed a lot of it last year. The four oh six c r A might might be misleading folks into thinking that he wasn't that good, but he was. He had a one eighteen whip and and really good strikeout in walk ratio. So I think Joe Musgrove can have a big breakout

season this year. I really like what he's up to. Jimmy Nelson on the bounce back. He missed all of last year with a shoulder injury. He's gonna come back strong. I really really like what he did in seventeen. And then Annibal Sanchez, the grandpa who busted out that cutter last year and was dominant. Do not sleep on him. He's gonna be ready to and again he's gonna come back from what he did last year and with Washington. Uh, he did it with Atlanta. He's gonna be with Washington

this year. But Annibal Sanchez is going to be good and he's free in Fantasy League. These are such interesting names because Jimmy Nelson, it's like the proverbial this is the year where he bounces back, right, This is the year that you get some Jimmy Nelson. And then in the case of Sanchez, man did he bought them out right? Like he was dreadful. At one point he was allowing Homer's at just such an amazing clip. I mean, you and I would have gone yard on him. It was crazy.

The thing of it was, and you know he was a tiger, so I watched him front and center. The thing of it was, he still kind of had his strikeout and walk ratio. We're doing pretty well. It's just that anytime someone got on it was a two or three run Homer coming up. And so as the r A was just through the roof, well, he cut the home runs and a big part of it was getting

that cutter last year. And so again I don't expect the two three r A. He was amazing last year, but give him like a three sixty and he's still worth where he's going. I mean, Annibale Sanchez is so cheap because nobody wants the old guy, and he's like two hundred and sixtieth overall pick in fantasy this year. Talking over valued and undervalued pictures and Fantasy Leagues of

Baseball with Paul Sport from fan Graphs. By the way, those who were watching at UH Visa dot Com, Visa and app and Foobo TV, you'll see blue shaded blue highlighted UH names here on Pauli's list of the top pitchers. What those did note Paul help me out here is that is where a tear break. It does the tear break happen right after the blue are on the blue? You know, people ask me that, and I was like, I I should have made clear what which it was.

It starts the new tier, and I will I'm gonna do my March update soon and I will make that more distinct because I was like, yeah, that's that's a that's a good question there. So like Blake Snell starts the second tier, Steven Strasburg starts the third tier. I see, So sheers are the Graham, Sale, Verlander, Cole Klueber, Nolah Syndergard and then next tier Snell, Kershaw or so forth. Um, let me ask you about one guy. Let me cherry

pick a guy. I'm sure there's no there's no secret on you say cokucha in Seattle, but where do you say couch? But but where does he get where does where? Is it appropriate to draft him? And it's appropriate to draft him where he's going right now, because he's going at a pretty good value. The hund pick off the board. He's around the pitcher and the way this average draft position works is that it combines starters and relievers. So I don't know exactly where he's going among starters here.

They don't they don't delineate, unfortunately, but he's the sixty four pitcher taken. That's a pretty good bargain right there. I don't I don't even think it's that big of a gamble, like when you're getting somebody at past pick one fifty um that they can be a bigger gamble and it's not going to cost you too much if they go by the wayside. But I really like Cokuchi. I'm kind of intrigued by what he can do. I think he's going to be a solid, sort of mid

rotation type. He's not going to be amazing for fantasy because he is going to be on that schedule where he's pitching every sixth day so that the volume will be capped, but his per inning performance could be really good. And of course he had a nice spring training start. Joey Vado was speaking highly of of what he was able to do with the is curveball and things like that. Obviously, that's one spring training start. Don't go crazy on that. But Kakouchi is a nice, solid mid rotation guy for

your fantasy team for sure. All right, give me a sleeper too here then before we get off pitch. All right, So, as far as going going deep on some folks, I'm gonna stick with Milwaukee a little bit here and go with Brandon Woodrift. He and Corbin Burns are are fighting it out a bit for for a role. I'll take whoever wins. To be quite honest, I'm I'm a Brandon Woodrift guy. But if if Corbin Burns happens to win

that spot, sign me up. I would. I would have been prepared to come on here and talk up the virtues of of gambling on like a Colin McKee or Brad Peacock. But Colin mc kee himself got a little bit nicked up, as did Joshua James, which opened the door for Peacock, and he won't be so sneaky anymore. People will be going crazy for him. So that one's not as as sharp as it was, say you know too three days ago. I also like another one that's more of a gamble. He doesn't have the role right now,

but Seth Lugo a monster with the mess. And there's no universe where I'm gonna believe that that Jason Vargas is going to keep him out of the rotation all year.

I'm sorry, I'm just not willing to believe that. And another older one that you know, everyone knows the name, but they've probably forgotten Jeff some marsha keep a close eye on him, and if he comes back, if we get all the good progress reports of health and he's not missing uh spring training stars or falling short of you know, if they say he's supposed to come out and do fifty pitches and he only does twenty or

things like that, that's a concern. But if he's hitting all the targets that he's supposed to, I think he's gonna come back and be strong. Because the fantasy community has just ditched him. He's the one hundred and sixty first pitcher off the board picked three fifty six. That is a free pick up, that is an afterthought and I absolutely uh think he can bounce back and be strong one more. By the way, sorry, I gotta get in ross stripling. But similar to Peacock, he's a little

bit more known now because of Kershaw's injury. Everyone's back on the stripling train. But I want to say that I was out in front center on it because if you look on those rankings, he's ranked thirty six, and nobody had Ross stripling that high. So I was first on Ross Stripling. I'm gonna pat myself on the back. There. You got him thirty six there. Wow. Yeah, So Marja,

from your lips to God. As my mother would say, for Giants fans, they would love for that manifest for Jeff some Margin, the shark in San Francisco who had a ridiculous strikeout to uh walk rate two seasons ago and then stripling. I actually held a three to one young ticket on him last year at one point, just on a flyer, just in case. He was pitching so well, and and then in the second half, you know, just he didn't quite he wasn't quite able to hold up.

But by the way, he's a great example what I'm talking about about a hundred and twenty two innings of excellence can be so fantasy valuable. I think he would ended up as a top twenty pitcher, not top twenty. I think he was top eight. I think he was like ninth last year, So we'll call it top thirty, but only with a hundred and twenty winnings. That shows you that you just don't need the volume these days.

And I like him to get his shots this year because listen, even without Kershaw's injury, you know Rich Hills not going more than a hundred and thirty, Young jen Ryu, Kenta Maeda, they're always getting hurt or having their innings protected. Strippling is going to get his opportunities, and I loved what he did last year, and so that's why I'm so bullish on him. You don't have to take him as the thirty six pitcher. These rankings that aren't really

a draft sheet. It's more of a how I like them, so you kind of mixed it with the average draft position and then you figure out where to take them. Yeah, and Strippling much less of a chance that will go to the pen this year for all the reasons stated, because he was shipped to the pen last year at some point as well. We'll come back, We'll get Paul's opinions.

We'll shift it to betting, get Paul's opinions on A L and n L say Young Award props that are just out at the West Gate, and then we'll shift to infield around the horn and outfield as well, Fantasy baseball with PAULI. Bill Crackenberger on deck as well. It's a numbers game right here at VESTA. Now back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our vs IN studios in Las Vegas. Back on the numbers game with Paul Spoor from Fan Graphs, talking

fantasy baseball. Uh and uh, let's do a little betting here and El say Young, Al say Young, Rob Manfred is Rob Manfred Crazy? Part two, PAULI, the Atlantic League will become a testing ground for new rules and tweaks for its Major League Baseball brethren. This from the New York Post one of the considered things moving the mound back, moving it back further. What the hell fallI are either? Paulli is speechless, I'm here all right? What do you think about that? He? No, No, we couldn't. Now we're

now we can what what in the world. Okay, I'm going to support him a little bit on this one. I don't hate it because of where it's being done. Right in the Atlantic League. You know, you gotta test these things out somewhere, right. It's a lot better than doing it and say triple a um or or having forbid the majors too. So you've got to try these things out somewhere. We have far too many strikeouts right now, right, plain and simple. It's become a three true outcome gaming

for those who don't know what that is. That means strikeout, home run, and walk. Those are the three true skill based outcomes. A single can be flukey, hex o can double, and almost all triples have some measure of fluke to them. So that's why they call them the three true outcomes. And it becomes too much of that, and that's part of what drives the pace down. The ball isn't in play.

We don't have a lot of options for what we can do to kind of fix that because we can't make pictures throw slower, and part of it is the v low. Moving the mound back a little bit could change it. Now. I think I would do more of lowering the mound, that would be what happened to the oldest raising or lowering the mound. That that would be smarter, because I do wonder all the unintended consequences of perhaps moving it back, maybe with injuries or what. I don't know.

But it's an independent league. I think that's an interesting testing ground. So I'm gonna give him credit for where he's doing it, not so much everything that he is doing, but I'm okay with trying this stuff out in the independent league and a well and a well uh well regarded one to right. It's not just it's not nothing baseball. We know a handful of those teams. Guys have gone through the Long Island Ducks, Sugar Land Skeeters, etcetera. So

I don't hate this so much for rob Manfreend. So I'll give theim a little bit of a check mark here after hammering him in the last segment. Well, I I think it's a hair brained scheme. I think you're right. I mean, it's good that he's doing it in the league that's not the majors. But good lord, if this ever were to come to the major leagues, every stat we've ever known is done, done, nothing matters, right right, Yeah, So that's I mean, you're effectively starting a new sport

from scratch. It's like, and really, this is best comparison off the top of my head. Let's just raise the rims to eleven feet. Yeah, and let's just you know, play basketball different way than we ever have before. Anyway, exactly inches has been perfect. Ninety feet. It's amazing how perfect ninety feet is to deliver enough close plays and give the routine out. It's like, I agree with you on that. I think raising and lowering the mound is the right way to go as opposed to moving it back.

But I am interested to see the results here at least let's do before we get off pitching. Then here, So the west Gate posted a l SI Young Award odds and uh, this is a lot more of a free for all than it is in the National League. At the top of the American League. Corey Kluber still still a member of the tribe PAULI never never moved plus three fIF Yeah, I thought it was gonna be a Dodger at one point. Nope, Chris Sale your doppelganger four to one. Luis Severino with the Yankees got a

big extension. He's at seven to one, and then everybody in double digits. Verlander and Carrasco both at twelve to one, and on down the line, the aforementioned Garrett Cole fifteen to one, and you see the rest of the names. Um, Trevor Bower one. What do you like here? Yeah, if I'm trying to like not just go hard on the favorites, which sale would probably be my favorite among the single

digit one? Berlander's up there, for sure, he has. I'm a long time for anyone who's been hearing my spots with you on the podcast dating until now knows I love Borlanders, So I'll get that token mentioned in there. But for me, it really starts with Garrett Cole. I talked about how much I loved what he did last year with Houston. He was a cy young contender, without a doubt. I think you can actually build on that.

I know, you know the smartest thing to do statistically is to peel back and put some regression on what he did. But you look at everything that Garrett Cole did and the way his arsenal works, and I just don't really see where the regression comes. So I feel like he's gonna put up another amazing season and actually be in contention for the cy Young And here's where my contradictory play comes is because I am gonna say

Bower as a consideration. So while I am concerned with him in fantasy because he's the night picture of the board, twenty one is actually a little bit of appealing. So it's a little bit of a hedge there that if I'm wrong, because it is not some very strong statistical case that I have against and and if he is going to be this guy that we saw last year and not you know, fall victim to a batted ball that that cuts him out and only allows him to

have a hundred thirty five minutes. If he does this for a full to tent, he's the workhorse type two. I think pitching well and and being efficient, I think Bauer can push the two twenty type, the old school type of numbers there. So at twenty it becomes a little bit more appealing. So that's where my contradictory statement is. And then a little bit on my long shot, I'm gonna go Blake China the reliever because I'm looking and I just didn't see a whole lot that I loved on.

On the long shot, I wanted to bring a long shot for each somebody in the uh the plus ten thousand or or later, and I just didn't see a lot. You know, Cokuchi, I was glad you brought him up because he's somebody I considered. But like I said, the volume is gonna be too tough with him, Brent Honeywell maybe next year that's something I'd be interested in. And just a lot of these other guys have too many

flaws that I can't get over, whereas Blake tryin. And I mean, if he does the kind of amazing stuff that we saw last year, which is going to be hard, but a point seventy eight r a a point eight three whip, if he's amazing again, he was already a down ballot guy. If the rest of the pool just kind of clusters and opens the door for a reliever, he could be the guy. So that's my long shot there, and an emphasis heavy emphasis on long shot, But those

are my al guys. Blake trying in three hundred to one for the American League, cy Young National League, same story, although this is obviously more top heavy, not surprisingly sures are plus two fifty d gram plus three fifty the reigning Cy Young Cham Aaron Nola for the Phillies at seven to one, and then everybody else in double digits. Clayton Kershaw still getting some love at twelve to one.

Do not do that. Move that down? Yeah, don't take out to move move that one way down before I would take a shot on that one at this point, I actually found more appealing options here as far as UH feeling confident about some of the longer odds that I was taking my my cold camp here would be Noah Syndergard. Absolutely loved him. We still haven't seen the best out of him. Fifteen to one. That's kind of an easy one. I would definitely get in on that.

I mean, he has arguably the best stuff in baseball playing and simple now it's in the guard as an absolute monster. We haven't seen that full two any season yet. Last year it was an index finger issue and hand foot mouth disease like so met for those injuries. So he just stays healthy. We're getting two hundred plus innings of just amazing baseball, and then I'm gonna go with two uh pirates that I absolutely love this year one. I already mentioned Jamison town is one of them, and uh,

I think he's a total monster. He had a slider last year that really took off in the second half, and he's gonna have gonna have it from day one this year. I think it's gonna make him a bit more of a strikeout guy while not costing him efficiency. One of the reasons he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts in previous years is it didn't want to rob him of his efficiency. He didn't want to build up, you know, six seven, eight pitch at bats just to get strikeouts. I can get you out in three pitches,

three four pitches. Why wouldn't I. This slider really amped his other stuff and was a good pitch on its own. So fifty two one for Jamison ty On. Definitely like him. And then my my long shot here, hundred to one. Joe Musgrove. I already told you what I liked about him. What I will say is I was I did this recent piece where I was kind of looking at last year's guys and trying to find this year's version of them, and I was looking for a this year Joe this

year Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove was who I landed on. Now, I understand that might not jive when you kind of think about it, But then I looked at what Snell had done through seventeen and what Musgrove has done to his day, you know, through so far, and they were pretty deadlocked. In fact, Musgrove's walk great was much better. It was half what Snell did and and it's strikeout

rate was only one percent below twenty one. So I know Snells known as this big strikeout guy in must Grove isn't really, but it shows you that these guys can jump. When they get going, the strikeouts follow. So I really love Joe must Grove and so I'm gonna put him as my long shot there too, So thor tywn and must grow and must grow if you're seeing at what number right now? I got a hundred here? Yeah, um must grow. Could Joe Musgrove be this year's Blake's

new Interesting? Interesting? And no no love for Bueller, no love for Buller at Corbin at twenty one? Nothing there that that I do love Bueller, But I think the markets already kind of set that and and really kind of robbed out of any sort of value there to where it just kind of has to perform. And so you know the same thing in fantasy, he's going really high. There's a big playoff fantasy tacks. I call it when

a guy just beasts out on the national stage. So I mean, he's kind of already established as an ace, even though he has a hundred and forty five Major League inunings under his spells. So I didn't really like that. And I don't like guys in the first year of a big contract pictures specifically, not so much for hitters, but picture I really just stay away from them in fantasy and something like this kind of bat So I I'm not anti Corbin, but I'm just laying off this year.

I want to see how he adjusts to Washington, and then maybe next year we jumped back in. Okay, Paul, stick around. When when we come back, I'm gonna stay completely out of your way. We're gonna go catch her. We're gonna go all around the horn here catch her first second, short third and outfield. Uh. Underachievers or excuse me, undervalued, overvalued rapid fire coming back with Paul Sport from fag

Graphs right here on the numbers game at Feasta. Now back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. Don't forget Greg Peterson coming up on the show as well with Bill Crackenburg a little uh, we'll do a little uh college basketball tonight, and the big Dances around the corner. Of course, prop Swap wants it to be your most profitable tournament yet. Props wapp a marketplace where

you can buy and sell active sports bets. Think of it like a stock market, if you will, but for betting tickets by low on a team with long odds and then sell high for big profit. Last year, Larry Has bet ten dollars on Loyola and then Bam sold it for a thousand dollars four games later as they got to the final four. As Brent says, cashing tickets is what it's all about. So at prop Swap, turn your tickets into cash. Go to prop swap dot com

or download the prop swap app today. All right. Paul sport fan Graphs hosted the Sleeper in the Bus podcast as well. Really can find him everywhere in the baseball universe. Let's go Catchers, overvalued, undervalued, go alright, so overvalue, there's really not that many. It's a it's a weird pool this year. It's pretty crappy, to be quite honest. So the two studs at the top I think are being drafted. Fine. I'm gonna say MIKEO though, because I just don't like

Mike Sanino. Planeman simple. He trought me a bet he inexplicably hit. I suckered someone into betting on his batting average one year that he wouldn't hit over two thirty, and that year he inexplicably hit two fifty. Alp forever. Dislike Mike Sanino, So don't draft minalt Care's pretty undervalued, Yeah, superrational, super logical, undervalued. I like Danny Jansen with Toronto, with Russell Martin out of there. He's really sharp. I think he's gonna get the full time playing time. He looks

really good. And Austin Barnes, I'm I'm kind of buying him back in he was a disaster. I kind of was excited about him. I playoff tax him a few years ago after he had a nice little October and it definitely didn't work. He's sound, he's sunk, completely. Now he is an afterthought at catcher, but I like him to bounce back there. I don't think Russell Martin is going to take the job from him. Uh do you want to have you want to say something about them and then go to the next position, or just jump

right now? Go ahead, first base? Go ahead, all right, first base. Joey Gallo overvalued. Listen. I get that he hits forty homers, but he does it with a like a two oh five average, And so I can get my undervalued guys who might not hit forty, they might only hit thirty two, thirty three. But I'll take the seven homer tradeoff for thirty five plus points of batting average. And that would be Matt Olson, who I absolutely love him by the way I sneaked hit. Believe he can

hit forty plus homers this year. In fact, I think I talked about him on the home run So I love mad Olson. And then Ryan O'Hearn I actually see us kind of a a baby Matt Olson out there in Kansas City, not getting a whole lot of attention. He's really interesting too. So Gallo fade Olsen O'Hearn by, and then at second base, overvalued hobby by is and this is one of those who is similar to what I was talking about earlier with like a Bower. It's not that I think Bias is going to be a

complete trash bag. He has three positions in fantasy, which is great, second, short, and third, so that's always valuable. And he's gonna be good. He's gonna hit you some power and steal you some bass. I just don't know that he's worth the seventeenth pick this year. I just I worry about the volatility of his plate approach, so I got him a little bit overvalued. I love and everyone does, but his price doesn't quite reflected yet. I love Daniel Murphy and Colorado. Never has a park and

player been so perfectly matched. He could hit three fifty this year, like that's actually realistically possible. And then for a deeper one, I'll go with Catel Marte, and I'm a recent Marte convert. I was never really a big fan until with some offseason research on his previous season. Here. Now, the one thing is he's always been known or perceived as some big stolen base guy, and he's never really done that. That's why I haven't liked him. I'm like,

why do people keep projecting him for Steels. I'm actually more intrigued by his power boost from last year and what he was able to do there. He's going to play full time with with some of the trains that move that they've done with Pollock Free Signing and Goldie Gone. So I think Marte can tell Marte is gonna get a full time playing playing role, and I think he can go with twenty plus homers and then maybe run a little bit. I mean, he's had eleven in the

season before. If he can get up to fifteen, if you're talking with a two sixty five average, that's really valuab when he qualifies the second In short, so, I like to tell Marte of my three positions there, I'm glad you brought up Daniel Murphy because obviously the move to Cours is just everything. You haven't listed fourth here and understandably so behind Al two B Buiez in Maryfield. But Daniel Murphy and Colorado could be a big blow

up kind of thing. It's the same reason why probably Eronado should be your number one third baseman in perpetuity right in Colorado. The one question I would ask you on that second base list. If you could throw that up one more time. Matteo is Minnesota, and I just relate this to football. Uh. Sometimes in football there's a quirk where you can use somebody at one position even though he's actually playing another. Marwin Gonzalez going to Minnesota. Uh, platooning.

I don't have platooning is the right word here with Jonathan School because I don't think that's what's gonna end up happening. But you have Marawin here listed at second base, yet, Um, you know he's playing other positions as well. Could you fudge something with him? No, you can put them everywhere. That's what makes them so valuable. And and the deeper your league, where you know injuries can strike, and and

the waiver wire is thinner. A guy like Marwin Gonzalez, who isn't you know, some superstar offensively, he's very valuable though, because you can move them to all those spots. And so when a key free agent comes up, if it's a second baseman and you have your second base locked well with Marwin, you move them around and then you can afford to get the free agent flavor of the week. So I love Marwin for that reason alone. I value positional flexibility quite a bit, maybe more than the rest

of the industry. I think it's very valuable season to have guys who can move around. It really keeps your flexibility. So somebody like Marwin, I do like, and I think they're gonna get him as playing time. He's a super utility He's he's he's a Bens Obris you know, at Ben's Obriss Peak, he was playing everywhere, but he was playing every day. So he's not a utility hitter who only plays four times a week. He's he's a utility guy who plays six seven days a week. And that's

what Marwin is. Gonna be great flex player for fantasy baseball. We'll come back. We'll do third base and excuse me, shortstop third base in the outfield. Paul Spoor from fan Graphs talking fantasy right here on a numbers game in Visa. Now back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa In studios in Las Vegas. Back in the numbers game here at Visa Series Sex and shade to a four. If you sign up for the free daily Visa City newsletter, you'll also get our

special betting god, Visa's Racers Odds. It should be pointed out for Sunday's Big Race here in Las Vegas Big NASCAR Race, that is Visa's Racers Odds Betting God, featuring in depth race preview focusing on analysis of pass race results here in Vegas at the last AGAs Motor Speedway and the changes expected for the Pennzoil four hundred full pages for each of top contending drivers for Sunday, Steve McKinnon's race simulation, which will be out in the pre

weekend version and updated Saturday following all practice and qualifying sessions. Both the Visa City Newsletter and the Racers Odds Betting Guide are free Racers Odds Betting Guide information at Visa dot com Slash Race. That's Visa dot Com Slash Race, and we'll have Jeff Coleandro in tomorrow on the show

to discuss that race as well. Paul Sporer is on with us UH kind enough to join us all our long talking fantasy baseball little betting props as well, UH, and should be noted by the way Paul at Sporer on Twitter at s p O R e Er and Pauli, you are tweeting out links to your rankings on every position, correct as as you make them. Yes, and so um

I did first and second yesterday. Startners are already up, but the rest will actually be out today and tomorrow, so they won't have the new ones to flash up on the screen there, but there will be some extras today, so folks that want to follow me on Twitter, they'll get the links to those today, including uh, shortstop and third base, which I know we're about to cover here, so you want to dive in right now, sneak preview on those. All right, let's talk a little bit about shortstops. Sorry,

Yankees fans. Deal overvalued for me is a little bit on Glabor Torres. And again it's not it's not the outright and bust that I think he's going to completely fall on his face, but I do you know, the sophomore slumpthing gets thrown around a lot, but there is value to it. And it's not so much that, um,

you know, it's guaranteed every year. It's just that when you have an amazing rookie year, you usually only have one place to go, and that's down is to kind of you know, smooth back out as the league adjusts to you. And there's an adage that I learned years ago. I believe it was Ron Shambler who coined it, or

at least that's where I heard it from. Prospect growth isn't linear, And I use that all the time because it's a it's a good reminder that just because somebody had a big season, I mean they're going to build on that and continue to stare step up into a star. And this works for even non prospects, uh you know, who have who have graduated off prospect list. They might be in their third year or whatever. It's not always

going to be this perfect rise into excellence. So I think Glabor Torres kind of comes back to the pack a little bit this year, he's okay, not great, and then maybe takes off into superstardom for as far as undervalued. I really like Jorge Polanco out in Minnesota. I think he's gonna be really interesting. By the way, could can tell. Marte also counts it shortstops, so there's a little bonus one there. He count counts that both positions. But I

like Jorge Polanco. I think he's you know, he did get pop for p E. D S. I'm not too worried about that, though. I don't hold that against guys once they come back and you know, it's whatever. I mean. I don't play the moral police with that. He's served to suspension. It's time to move on. And then another one who's actually going to be playing second base, but he only qualifies that shortcoming into the season is Garrett Hampson out in Colorado. Absolutely love him. First off, ABC

of Fantasy Baseball always been on course. It's that simple, it's not that hard, it's not cheating to do it, it's not cheesy to do it. It's the smart play. Yeah, DFS. First question I asked every die every day. Is there a game at Cores or not? That's the first question, Bingo exactly. And so Garrett Hampson is an interesting prospect. He's got great back to ball skills, he knows how to take a walk, and he's got premium speed and speed is hard to come by in fantasy these days.

A perfect world scenario, this is not the projection I would give him. But but a a whow everything really broke right is forty stolen basis for Garrett Hampson. That's the kind of speed that he has, and he has good bat to ball skills, So I really like him as a breakout at short and then third base. Uh sorry,

Yankees fans, it's Miguel Andohar. And honestly, he's even a bigger case for a sophomore slump than than Glaver Taurus, because he was better than Taurus and so, like I said, there's really only one spot to come, and that's down to kind of smooth out a little bit and as the league kind of catches up and adjust back to Miguel Andahr. He's a quality player for sure, but I just don't know that he's gonna hit two nine seven

again with the Homers. And his defense is so wretched that I wonder if it will cost him some time as well, and he might not get that six hundred and six plate appearances again. So that's actually by bigger concerned than the best and then underrated. Oh God, I love Max Mounsey and I just don't think he's getting

enough love off of what he did last year. And I know you might say, well, why wouldn't he have a sophomore slump, like, well, technically he wasn't a rookie, so that's one reason, but also because of the skills that he put underneath his season. I'm not necessarily saying that he's going to add to his thirty five homers. He might only hit another thirty five, but instead of doing it in four or eighty one plate appearances, it's in six hundred and twenty, so it's like a full season.

But the undernight, underneath skills with the scent walk rate is just so impressive, and he's much more aggressive on the pictures that he can do damage with. And I just love what Max Monsey did. I think he can put up a hundred runs and a hundred ribbies in that Dodge is lined up to. I know there are

some concerns that he'll get put tuned. He's too good to be put in, so they might take him out against lefties here and there a little bit early on, but I think they're going to realize that he can play against lefties and he should be an everyday player. So I love Max Munsey and then outfield finishing it up. This one is another one that where I don't hate him.

I just don't like him at this cause that's George Springer He's a little bit of an accumulator, and so you really need him to stay healthy to pan out. He's the present day Adam Jones, Hunter Pence and Go kind of look at their career trajectory. They eventually, you know, they were always solid, but then they just kind of meandered off into being mediocre. And so he doesn't have any standout skills. He doesn't run anymore either, So that's

George Springer. Just don't love him. There there's other guys I'd like to chase. And then I got I got a little bit of a couple of veteran types here, one who was a little bit unknown, well not anymore after the contract he got. But Andrew McCutchen is the one that everyone knows. Of course, he was great last year. I don't think people realize that because he was in San Francisco and so that that hid some of his production. But then when he went to New York, the skills

like they they shown again, they shown brightly. So I love him in Philly for a whole year. I think he's being a bit underrated. And then the guy who I thought, you know before he got seven years seventy mill Aaron Hicks might have been a little bit underrated for New York, but now everyone kind of knows the name, and they should. This guy is health just staying healthy, one season away from a thirty twenty breakout type of season.

He is that electric. He's got great skills. He also takes walks, so he is on base, stays high premium defenders, So you should always be in the lineup. I love Aaron Hicks. I'm gonna keep calling for the breakout, Gail. I don't care if he's thirty five. I'm still going to be calling for the breakout season for Aaron Hicks. I just believe in him so much. Can I just sprinkle some health dust on him? And I mean I guess that would be p ds, but no, so don't

take pds. But um, if we could just keep him healthy for a hundred and fifty five games, he'd be an absolute monster. And no Miami Marlin in sight. Have you ever seen a team that is more bereft of fantasy talent than this team in all your years playing fantasy? No, because they're also in a in a brutal part. Yeah, so none of their hitters are all that appealing. They actually have some interesting pictures, but that division is an absolute nightmare, and so then and they don't get to

face themselves. So I don't even want to take a shot on those pictures going against Atlanta, Washington, Philly and the Mets all the time. So no, completely the raft of talent. I might spot start one of their pictures every once in a blue moon, but for the most part, I'm completely ignoring that team. All Right, we'll see if Peter O'Brien has some breakout like Jason Weingarten hoped with his home run long shot pick. Paul Spore from fan Graphs The Sleeper in the Bust is the name of

his podcast again. He'll tweet out all of these position rankings at spore s p O R. E Er on Twitter. PAULI can't thank you enough. Man. We'll put this in podcast for him for days in Mr G. I appreciate it.