Beating the Book: Michael Lombardi on Free Agency and the NFL Draft

ad Nan Verke. We talk about everything draft implications, what gives in the NFC? What about that DeAndre Hopkins trade? What's this notion of tanking that people are talking about with the New England Patriots? That and much more all NFL, All show long. Michael Lombardi on the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander Wando, Believe in Anambics, Escape my Visa Vegas, Stats and Information Network Kill Alexander. Glad you could join us this morning. Uh,

it probably doesn't get much better than this. On the show today, Michael Lombardi to talk all things NFL with me. I have stored a whole bunch of NFL questions for Michael. I haven't been able to chat with him, uh for a couple of weeks now all throughout free agencies. We'll talk to Michael first this hour, but let us begin with a visa staple. He is the host of the Lombardi Line, along with Patrick maher each and every Saturday Sunday morning here on the network at Serious except channel

two oh four. Let's bring a minutes our good friend, Michael Lombardi, host of the Lombardi Line. Good morning to you, Michael, Good morning Gil. Hope you're doing well. I am doing well. How are you? How are you? How's Milly? How's the family? How are your dogs? I hear barking in the background. Yeah, unfortunately, I'm gonna shut my office store now. She can't help herself. Everybody is good. We're uh. We are quarantined and healthy and just totally staying strong and getting through this. And

we will. We will be resolved in that in terms of being able to get through this. Yeah, that goes for everybody, both that visa and of course everybody listening. Everybody uh in the country, everybody in the world, listen. I got it. You know. We we texted about getting you on the show, But you and I haven't had a chance to talk at all during free agency, during the first wave of this, so I just want to start. I have so many questions, Michael, So if you could

just hang out, I'd love it. I'd appreciate it. The first question would be just a broad one, which is, of all the things that have happened so far, what's And I heard you ask this if I believe Brian Baldinger, and that's the same question I would post to you. What's the single best thing you've seen happen? What's the most perplexing thing? Oh? Boy, you know the best thing I've seen happen? Uh? For me, I think obviously would be the Eagles probably signed Tony Hargrave, giving them a

one technique. I'm a big believer in strength on strength, and the strength of the Eagles is the defensive line. I think that that that signing there that young man is he had six and a half sacks, he had twenty eight quarterback pressures over his career. He's not gonna be a guy who's going to rush the pastor to that degree, but I do think he's going to make an impact on Fletcher Cox and I think it's a team sport. That certainly is something that I think really

makes a difference. So, you know, I like that along with the slave signing. I do like those two signings. I think Buffalo's trade of of of for Stefon Diggs was really rich. However, that being said, Josh Allen's got to be able to throw the ball down the field. If he can throw it down the field more accurately. Last year he was seven in his career, excuse me, Gill, he was seven for fifty on throws over thirty yards and he's one for seventy six on throws between twenty

and thirty. So to me that and then I think what the Saints have done this offseason. I think it's really strengthen their football team. Getting Malcolm Jenkins, getting getting uh Emmanuel Sanders. Those are two big time players that play sixteen games in sixteen minutes. So I like that. The most perplexing thing, uh, I mean, there's so many bye tie getting signed by the Allions for ten million a year. I'm not quite sure where that comes from. Uh, you know, the the the you can go through the

Giants franchising Leonard Williams remarkable. The guy can't get pressure on the quarterback. He's a rundown player, you know. And I just think to me that that just adds up to, uh, you know, not very good. I mean, people could criticize the Texans for the trade of of the Hopkins, but they've been trying to trade Hopkins since last summer, so that didn't surprise me. Uh And then I think the other thing that's probably resonates more. And this isn't good

or bad. It's just that Jacksonville is clearly all in on, all in on Trevor Lawrence for sure. Okay, you mentioned the DeAndre Hopkins Arizona Houston trade. I want to bring this up because I want you to sort of educate me. And I know you have bet you you know Bill O'Brien and you have you know, you mentioned that about the salary they don't want to pay him. Bill Barnwell, I'm sure you read this, did a great piece on ESPN dot com about this trade. He grades every move

that's made and on this one in particular. Um, and I'll even quote some of what he said. You know, he said, instead of sending a third round pick to ship off Johnson, which he really believes, is what a team, if they weren't dealing with Bill O'Brien, Bill Barnwell's opinion, would have to do. They'd have to include a third round pick to ship off Johnson. The Cardinals somehow managed, in Barnwell's words, to to ship him off by swapping fourth round picks, and in fact, the Cardinals probably got

the better end of that fourth round swap. In fact, the comparison he made, if I recall, was basic. If someone offered you a thousand dollars, Michael for your VH copy, a VHS copy of Mr Deed's, and you have the nerve to ask that person for more before saying yes, Uh, that's how bad he thought. Just that part of the deal was not even the Hopkins part, just the unloading of David Johnson bart And then he goes on to say, and then Hopkins for pick in the draft. He thought

it was the worst thing he's ever seen. Why in your opinion, and just to clarify it for me and for others, is it not that in your opinion? Well, because look, you know I don't I don't read Bill. You know, I don't think Bill has ever made a trade I mean, I could be wrong. Maybe he has made trades in the NFL. I'm pretty sure not. Uh. You know, he could sit in his basement and critique

everybody's trades. But when you're trying to trade somebody for a long time and somebody has been available, but obviously I think that you are going to take what you feel like is the best deal. I don't want to. You know what, last year everybody was ripping Bill for trading clowning, and now look, he can't get a deal. You know, all he can't get a deal. Everybody rips Bill. And all Bill does is win the South. You know, he mean he won a playoff game, won the South.

You know, is it perfect? No? Of course not. Is he making great moves? No? But I think here in line of they want to sign Council, they want to sign the sell Watson. Plus, I really don't think anybody knows what's going on in that locker room. I don't think anybody really understands where the dynamics are in the locker room. I think that David Johnson deal is is certainly a risk considering his injury history, but he is a good player. They take on that contract, they got

plenty of cap room to take on the contract. I mean, if you're gonna critique cap room and contracts, the Browns, who everybody loves because they're analytical, I mean they have some of the highest I mean I thought analytics. I thought analytics was going to allow you to buy players that have reduced number, not pay the top number for all. I mean, seriously, hop Hooper for the for the UH

to make a the highest paid tight end. I mean, if you got to give you five tight ends and that would you have him as the highest paid in the league. Of course she wouldn't, you know. And so you know, Bill is just easy to pick on, you know, and no one you know in Cleveland because they're analytics, which is in favor of some of these people that write. You know, then you know it's okay. You know that deal. I mean that deal to me is really a rich deal.

And when you look at it, the Jack Conklin deal, Jack Conflin can't pass them. I mean, that's that's just a fact. He's not a very good pass protector. And they run a play action pass off as the Tennessee to build around it. And then you make him on the highest paid tackles in football, and he's not a great pass protector. But see, we don't that that's not that narrative isn't popular. That narrative isn't popular because it

doesn't attack Bill O'Brien. I'm not saying Bill O'Brien's uh perfect and certainly, and I don't talk to Bill O'Brien very often, and if I do, I don't have we talk about family and his son and things like that. I just think, to me, when you're critiquing trades and you've never made one, or you don't understand the dynamics of how to make one or what's going on, I

think it leaves you some room for air. Michael Lombardi our guest kind enough to join us this hour right here on a numbers game at Visa in the Sports Betting Network, all brought you by the bit MGM app. By the way, if you want to follow Michael on Twitter, it's at m Lombardi NFL. Author of Gridiron Genius, has his own podcast, GM Shuffle that he does with ad Nanverk, which is just by the way, Michael, if I haven't told you recently, a spectacular listen. I enjoy cursing. That's

a big plus. I like that. Um So, I don't know if you just you get your motions take over them. And then when you see guys like you know, like if you want to pick on somebody, like let's go to David Caldwell down in Jacksonville. I mean, here's a guy who's been working since two thousand and thirty. He said, one winning season. They've never had a compensitory pick. They have no quarterback that they have more five picks that are ever reached a second contract. I mean, there's plenty

to pick off. But when you pick on a guy who's one just one the north, you know, and you don't understand really what's going on in the locker room, you do you you know, do you think anybody really knows who is Hopkins? Who he is? Do you think anybody really knows him? You know, it's a little bit like what I wrote about Brady. You know, everybody has theories on Brady. Everybody wants to pinpoint why Brady left.

And really, unless you've been in that locker room in New England, unless you understand the dynamics of the building in New England, anything you write or say it's purely speculation. It's purely speculation because really the reason Brady left was what I wrote about yesterday for The Athletic. It's about longevity. It's about the constant going back to two thousand and one and starting all over again, and that tires people out. And it's not because you're tired of doing it. It's

just it wears on. And I think that that's what the part of the missing element is. And I'm not trying to pretend i'm mr know it all because I was in the league. I'm just trying to let people understand there's way more to every story than what you're reading on a paper. Yeah, well, you you've been in the room where it happens, as as the Great Musical Hamilton's famously Uh says. And I think you know I've

said it about on field stuff. It's one thing to speculate on off field stuff, which again we can prattle on about, and those of us who have never played the game or been in the room UH making decisions can do that. I always say what you just said about xs and ohs, unless we we don't even have all twenty two footage, so you know, I give the

famous Chris Coolie story. To your point, which I wish I've said many times, Chris Cooley, who had just played with the Redskins, had one offseason away from them, then had a radio gig in DC and immediately told his co host guys, I was in there. I was in there for for seven seasons. I have no idea what they're doing now. So to your point, I mean, I get it, um, and it's and I'll go with what you say. That's why we have you on here. You bring up Tom Brady Michael Um. Apparently when I was away,

Tom Brady switched team signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Um, I wanna, I want to I want to just bring this up with you, and I want to just sort of listen. Maybe it's this simple, and I just sort of want to bounce it off you. It seems like at the end for Brady, it came down to the Buccaneers and the Chargers. Those were the only two teams

that seemed willing to pay him market value. Is it reasonable reasonable to speculate that have the Chargers had follow me here, a head coach that Brady I don't know, would respect in the way he respects a Josh McDaniels, I'm speculating um and not one who you and I and all of us have sort of criticized a lot week to week in the NFL. And Anthony Lynn he was a great guy, but maybe not the coach that say,

Josh McDaniels. Is is it reasonable to speculate that it came down to just that um and that in the end, you know, is when you look at the Chargers, man, it seems like as soon as they got rid of as soon as Philip Rivers went away, they picked up Chris Harris Jr. They got too great offensive linemen. It's just been a boon for them. Is it could have have been just that simple? I guess it's a question.

You know, No, I don't. I think the reason Tampa one is because Tampa is a two hour flight for Brady to get to New York to see his son. I think that was one of the boxes Brady really wanted to check off. I think that was important. I think he would have if he went to the West Coast, he would have liked it to be in San Francisco. They decided they weren't interested. But I think anything outside

of San Francisco, his hometown. I think the West Coast was really not employed, and I think he wanted to be close to home. He wanted to be able to get in an airplane Sunday after a game, fly out of New York, spend some time with his son, fly back to work on Wednesday morning, on Thursday or Tuesday morning, whenever he had to be back at work, and go from there. Yesterday, my Washington Redskins, Michael grew up born

and raised in Washington. D c uh. They pick up Kyle Allen from the Carolina Panthers, a reuniting UH with Ron Rivera. Obviously in your opinion, now it's Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen. That's those are the quarterbacks on the Redskins roster. Does that put the to a chatter UH to bed for the Redskins at number two? Or does that not mean that? I don't know. I think this is what it means. I think it means that Scott Turner, the offensive coordinator in Carol in Washington, really likes Kyle Allen

and he has always liked Kyle. I think he was against trying to play Will Greer last year. I think he sees Kyle Allen as more upside. I think the reality is, and I don't want to say this for Scott Turner, but there is parts that with Cam Newton's not healthy, with the ankle and all the things to run and all I think he felt better with Kyle Allen running the offense than Camp. I'm not saying he thinks Kyle Allen is a better player than Camp, just saying in terms of all the things that add up.

So therefore, you know, I could see Kyle Allen and I think Kyle Allen will be the sneaky guy to sneak up on uh On, on Dwayne Haskins. I think that's the perfect guy to sign a little bit like Kirk Cousins. We bring him in. Nobody really knows we drafted in the fourth round, even though we drafted r G three. Here we go, and I think that they would be done at quarterback. I mean, why would they

you know, why would they take an injured player? And I'm not sure anyone, including the medical staff can can validate to his injury or predict how long he's going to stay uninjured for the rest of his career. I think if I'm the Redskins. I am taking the short fire thing, whether it's Sha Hung, whether it's Isaiah Simmons. I'm taking a player that I know i'm gonna get

ten years out. Yeah. You you're saying so many things that I'm sort of mentally jotting down notes because I'm gonna get back to them, um before we get back to it, because there's a lot I want to ask about that, especially in this very strange year where no O t A s will happen, training camp might be truncated. I'll get back to that. I'll bookmark that. Let's go back to the Chargers for a second, if you will, and forgive the sort of bouncing around just mentioned Philip

Rivers going out, Chargers failing to land Tom Brady. They're opening a new stadium, as we've talked about so many times with much fanfare. They're really going to open the season with Tyrod Taylor behind center. You think, Yeah, I do, I really do. I think they feel like he'll protect the football. I think they're gonna try to protect the football run it. I think that they're going to use their their their skill players, which they have a lot of two, um, to create a situation and rely on

their defense. Now, will they hold up? Yeah? I think they can, and will he played well? You know, I think it's to come down to some key games. Can you go with the Kansas City of beat Patrick Mahomes? You know that that worries me. You know, I'm with you on on that. I don't know. To me if I were, then I would sign Jameis Winston. And I'm and I'm a huge, huge, uh critic of Jamis Winston.

I've been very critical of his inability to protect the football, but he's thrown for five thousand yards now it makes no sense to side Damis Winston if all you care about is protected football And that's what Anthony Lynn's talking about. And Tyrod Taylor actually pretty historical and his ability and his ability to protect the ball over his uh short sample size relatively speaking career. And by the way, I'm

not anti Tyrod Taylor, actually like Tyrod Taylor. I'm just saying, with the new stadium, if they're looking to make that proverbial splash that we've talked about so often, is that really the guy they're gonna go with it? And you seem to think, yeah, that is their guy. I think they have no choice. I think that Look, let's face it, I mean the Randoms, I mean, what's who's going to the you know, what's the splash for the ramp? People are just can't wait to go in that stadium to

watch Derek Goff. Yes, yeah, I mean, you know so, I think winning is going to bring people out. That's the only way you could think of. You brought up Emmanuel Sanders going to the Saints, which I think everyone agrees consensus, huge move goes. You know, he's gonna be a number two behind Michael Thomas in New Orleans. But imagine that the number two, a player who meant so much to the Niners in the second half of the season last year. Were you surprised that the Niners didn't

put up more of a fight in keeping him. Yeah, I was. But I think the Niners, you know, when you look at it, Gil, they're worried about their cap situation. I mean, you know, they've got some issues that they've got to handle, and I think ultimately they've got they had to come up with a way to where they're going to have to rely a little bit on the draft. You can't pay for everything, you know, and you can't

buy everything. And last year, you know, right now when you look at it, you know they're they're looking here at one second year. So they've got fifty million of cap room. Plus they have two first round picks. So I think that gets them in shape to where they can keep going with their cat, maybe extend some players. But you know, you you go ahead and sign you go ahead and sign Emmanuel Sanders, and you still have two first round picks. Now, all of a sudden, it

gets a little Harry. Look, let's let's just say this is the Raiders. What did they start out with? About seventy million dollars worth the cap room? You know, now they're down to six million dollars six point four million dollars worth a cap room and six point four million worth of cap room. They only have three point two million of dead money. So they've done a good job of managing their cat. My question to you, Gill, is are the Raiders any better after spending all that money? Oh?

I got questions about them to Michael seriously, like I have to do a show within a show when I talked to you, because it's immediate stream of consciousness real quick here before we squeezing a break. Uh. Patriots released Stephen Gostkowski yesterday, who once upon a time they had spent franchise tags on. What do you make of that? Any any broader meeting to that? Does he follow Vinitary to Indian? What happens there? They're in serious capture. We'll look.

They took a huge cafe. It cost some three point two million a cup. The Patriots now had twenty five billion dollars twenty six million dollars of dead money on their cap. Twenty six million. That's unlike them, you know, that's really unlike them. And most of it is from some of us from Antonio Brown, some of it's from some of it from uh, most of us from Tom Brady. But Gostkowski and Antonio Brown make up another part. They're the third most dead money in the league, behind the

Panthers and the Jaguars. The Jaguars, aren't they beautiful? They got Michael, let me step it. Hold hold that thought about the Jaguars. Got a whole bunch more to ask you about the draft and what this offseason is gonna mean.

Who favors coming back the Sports Betting Network Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander back to the numbers game right here with sports betting analytics, live actionable sports betting information, though it is a strange, surreal sci fi time in our existence, so not a whole bunch of actionable, actionable stuff, I should say, but always fascinated to talk about the NFL with Michael Lombardi, hosts of the Lambardi Line here at Visa week end morning, Saturday

and Sunday six to nine Pacific, nine to noon Eastern UM. And so many things to discuss when thinking about and hoping that the NFL season will start on time whenever it does start. First things, the most important thing I could possibly ask you about here, Michael, can we flash up that new Los Angeles Chargers logo that they unveiled yesterday? Jacob if we could, um Michael your thoughts. You know, I'm an old school guy. I'm a big believer in

the uniform of great yers should always stay. I mean, Deacon Jones, Jack young Blood, you know those players in that blue and white, uh, with the all white, the all blue. I just am always I'm always gonna be craving those uniforms. I think that those are I don't people say, well, do you got to change uniform it helps? Well, it doesn't seem a matter to the to the Celtics, doesn't matter to the Yankees. You know, it doesn't matter

to the Raiders. You know, the Raiders change the name of their team and all change the color of the uniforms. So for me, I'm I'm I'm old school that way. I love it. I love the the the old school uniforms. So the new ones to me are just at least they're not what I would call World League like, which is those just ridiculous, like like the SFL uniforms. Yeah,

by the way, I said obviously I said Chargers. I meant the Rams new logo, which looks to me a little too close to the Chargers logo and kind of looks like uh an Action three news logo from like the movie Anchor Man more than anything. To me, I'm not really fond of it. But we'll see if I wore I'm with you, I'm old school. I thought the Rams had one of the most iconic logos in all the NFL, So I guess they wanted to change with

the new stadium. Um, here's probably the the number one question I wanted to ask you today, maybe I've got a lot, but number one I think might be this um a lot of sort of conventional wisdom. Again buzz in the media world now that New England Patriots, and they invoke the word tank that Bill Belichick's go into this one year tank mode to get Trevor Lawrence or whatever the big prizes, and Trevor Lawrence is usually the

guy that they're focused on. There's some talks about some other quarterbacks that are in league currently, but it's usually a tank for Trevor kind of theme. Can you please put this to bed, knowing Bill Belichick as you do. Oh my god, I mean, this is ridiculous, and I've heard so many ridiculous things. The other day, somebody was Trade the Eagle, saying the Eagles from trading for Julio Jones. I mean, it's just some of the bad rumors that are happening. I mean, Brady to the Cowboys, that was

one of the leaders of the clubhouse. But I can promise you unequivocally that the Patriots will do nothing but try to win every single game on their schedule next year with every single ounce of energy they have. Yeah, there's just there's just no way. There's no way. I mean, and it's it's it's fascinating to see people throw that around. It's like, what in the history of Bill Belichick makes you think in any way that guy would be capable of even getting in that mindset. That's one of the

most ridiculous ones. I figured you would have a similar opinion on that. You mentioned the Raiders obviously in the last segment. Um, let me just throw these in before another break. Um, Marcus Mariotta, you really think that's sort of the splash that Las Vegas Raiders fans were hoping for. I mean, they're you know, it's funny they're carrying five quarterbacks on their team. I'm sure the Planets are free agents, so there's four. But they gave him really a one

year contract deal. You get a seven and a half million dollar guarantee one year contract. The Raiders, in a smart way now have a second year of ten millions, So say Mariota comes in as a great year, they won't be stuck like the Tannehill situation. But no, I don't.

I don't think he has the arm stage. But look, rudeness obsessed with finding a quarterback that can make a play within a play, he's tired of car going back there that's not open and then throws the bottle ounce or just you know, takes a bat you know, doesn't do what he needs to do. And maybe Mariota's athleticism will appeal to but I can promise you this, they had.

These two guys, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota are just wonderful guys. However, in terms of their leadership skills, in terms of their toughness and grit everything Growden once in a quarterback, in terms of them being as close to rich Gannon as possible, these two are probably the antithesis that there's no gen. Yeah, it's an interesting play. Uh, hang out if you could, Michael, because we've got short break here. UM. I want to ask you probably the most actionable questions, which is this

is gonna be a very strange offseason. Obviously already is it's going to continue to be odd. And I want to sort of get at what teams that might be an advantage, for what teams it might be a disadvantage for Get your thoughts on that, and then get your thoughts on some of these draft prospects. What your opinions are of them, who you think is overrated, who you think is underrated? We'll come back. It's a numbers game right here at Visa with a great Michael Lombardi. Welcome

back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Back from the Numbers game. It is Kill Alexander right here at Visa the sports betting network. Michael Lombardi hosts the Lombardi Line, also the GM Shuffle podcast with his buddy ad Dan Verke. Great listen each and every week and of course the book is The GM Shuffle at m Lombardi NFL. You want to follow Michael on a Twitter and you should, by the way, Michael, Okay, given the lack of a team organized activities, is it even more so than ever?

Um the teams with a great culture, a top head coach uh that you would say would be at an advantage when things resumed, more so than in any other year because of the nature of this offseason. Can you see some coaches being invented during this time? Are there any specific coaches teams and I'll give you the ones that I'm thinking of that you think will have an advantage when things resumed. So for me, the NFC East, the Eagles, the continuity of Doug Peterson and Jim Schwartz.

They've been together for five years there in Philly, which is amazing to think that they've been there for five years. Every other team in the NFC East, if I'm not mistake, I'm not mistaken, Cowboys, Giants, redskins off the top of my head, new head coach, new coordinators. I think, Um, the Saints who you just referred to, Drew Brees never gonna retire and at Sean Payton and Drew Brees once again are the Is that true, that premise true in your opinion that this year, more than any, teams like

that have an advantage, more distinct advantage. Yeah, I think that the teams that are going to have the hardest time with the teams that need there are two thousand and nineteen draft to really come through. And and those are the the team those players in that nineteen draft, the ones that have red shirted last year, the ones that kind of didn't play a lot that need to really take that giant mother, may I step, those are

the guys that are going to suffer. And always as the case, like for example, when you have a new coach and an existing quarterback. It's like having new everywhere. So the Browns and and you know the Patriots now even though you know Jarrett Stidham was there last year, it will be a new offense. So those are the kind of caks to work out. And I think the other factor is, and I would look this completely, is

is whose offensive line comes back intact? That's going to be the key because if you can like the Titans using even though I don't think Jack Conklin is a great player, they're going to have to replace some of their offensive line. The Colts, for example, won't have to replace any lineman. They got the Stanza. Those are the kind of teams to me that I would say have an advantage going forward. The Raiders they get their whole offensive line back. The Ravens, even though they lose, uh yeah,

they'll get that basically four the five or back. That to me is the key is if you get that back, then you know you've got a chance to start to hit the ground running pretty well. I know you're not a draft nick necessarily like mel Kuyper, Todd mcsher anybody like that who makes their whole living doing that, But

from what you have observed. Um, I don't know if you need to list five for us, but who are your favorite guys that you've seen on film coming out for whenever the NFL Draft will take place, which right now is scheduled to take place at the end of April, although not in Las Vegas. You know, one of one of favorite guys as Isaiah Simmons from Clemson. I think he's dynamic obviously because he can he can can affect the game on three levels, which I think you absolutely

have to be able to do. You've got to be able to affect the game on those levels. If you can, then all of a sudden, it becomes a real problem. And he can attack the pocket, he can play with great, he can play with he can rush the passer, you know, and he can play with with with the ability to play the run side on the side, and he's an excellent tackler. So when you add all that together here you get a linebacker that you don't have to worry

about taking off the field. And then I think for me, it always goes back to most people want to go to the receivers, you know. I think you got to go to the offensive line. And Andrew Thomas and Georgia, Jerrick Willis you know from Iowa, I think, and then you go to I mean Christian Whips from Iowa. You know, you've got to look at you and then the Alabama kid Willis I think, and then you know Vected from Louis. Though there's four legitimate, four legitimate left tackles in the

end that could play left tackle. That's really significant when you get into that. The defensive line, for example, is it nearly to the level of where where that is? I mean when you look, when you just break down the defensive line, you're like, Okay, look, you know Derrek Brown's tremendous. But after Brown, you got Kin Law, who I think the forty Niners think they could get at thirteen, but I don't think he'll be there at thirteen. Then

there's a drop. Then there's a drop. See. The draft, for Meg is always about binding players that you can't find in free agency. How do we do that. It's hard to find left tackles on the street. It's hard to find inside defensive tackles that can pass us. It's hard to find mic linebackers that can play on all three downs. And if you can do that in the draft, you better take them. So you know that begs a question also, and this is the draft is a game. We talk about this, you and I am sure you

talk about it with others too. It's a game. And there's some teams that get that. There's some teams that don't get that. And so to to your point, or at least following up on that point, Accuda at number three to Detroit. I get it they want to replace Darius Slay, But isn't that a pig. Isn't that a guy they could get at six or seven? Like, isn't that someone they could make a trade down for and

still get well? I mean, they could pick Acuda at three, but they still can't rush the passer, Like, what good does happen coverage? Guys? If you can't rush, you know, it's hard just to play coverage. It's hard to play coverage. You gotta find somebody. They gotta find somebody in their defensive front, you know, that can really take over the game. And you know, and they tried to do it last year. Tray Flowers is a really good player. We drafted him in New England, and I like Tray Flowers but Tray

Flowers need some help. On the other side. You know, Danny Shelton is not going to be on the field when the game goes to pass. You know who else is going to rush the pastor they need somebody else that can rush the path, you know. And for me, you know, Derek Brown would be a much better player. For him, you put him inside, somebody, get the paint and try to add another corner. I mean, right now, they signed True Font, they got Justin Colvin, who they

spent a lot of money on last year. So they've got two corners, and now they've got to find an inside, penetrating defensive tackle that could dominate the game. And if I were picking there, I pick Dirk Brown. I wouldn't even hesitate. I'm always fascinated by teams that that draft. And you know, people were killing the Giants, for instance, for drafting Daniel Jones last year as as high as they did at number six. And I remember saying very clearly on the show, Listen, none of us know if

he's going to be good or not. By the way, turned out to be pretty good his first year in the NFL. But people were killing it. Uh, people were killing the pick of Daniel Jones, And I was very clear to say, it's if you don't know how good he's gonna be. It's the fact that they might have been able to get him later. Right, It's the game

theory of the draft that can be criticized. It again, I'm just always fascinated by teams um that makes strange picks, not having any idea if that pick is actually gonna be good or not in the end. You get what I'm getting in Yeah, No, And I think this, here's my issue with Daniel Jones. If he were in this draft, where were you going? Where would he go? Is he better than Justin Herbert? Is he better than two of is he better than Burrow? Is he better than Jordan's Love?

And here's what I never want to be able to do. I don't want the next year's draft class to be better than the player I picked. I want that guy to last forever. I'm not sure and left Michael, Michael, sorry to step into, sorry to step in interrupting you apologize, will come right back. We will pick up right there. Got a whole bunch more from Michael Lombardi right here in a numbers game, A feasting Welcome back to a numbers game with you, Alexander. Back in the Number Game,

Kill Alexander Live from San Francisco this morning. Michael Lombardi on the East Coast. Michael, I'm sorry you were rudely interrupted. I think you were making a great point about Daniel Jones and the quarterbacks available the next year. Go ahead, I'm sorry. Well, I'm just saying that. I think that, you know, in every draft class, you have to look towards the future, you know, like, is this guy going to be better? Frankly, is Daniel Jones better than say,

Kwon Barkley. Is Daniel Jones better than Sam Donald? I mean Sam Donald's better than Daniel Jones. I mean he turns the ball over, but he's got more natural skill, you know, say Pon Barkley camp pass pretend. I mean, they just signed Dion Lewis yesterday at the Giants because they got to have somebody on third down that they can put in the game that they can count on it. If the young man doesn't change how he protects the passer, he's not gonna play a lot. And so I think

that's how you have to look at that today. Just just a little update here. Adam Schefter just reported on Twitter Cam Newton will get released, which means that, you know, the Pathers will pick up sixteen million dollars basically of calf room, and we'll see where Cam's gonna go. Now Cam's out there. You know, why wouldn't the Chargers signed Cam Newton if they can get him for physical and take care of I mean, to me, that makes too

much sense. Yeah, well, just it's just I mean, it drives home the point how you can be on the top of the world. Mean, Cam Newton was in a Super Bowl, you know, a minute ago and now released just the way, you know, an amazing league in terms of being to the highest mountain in the lowest valley. I asked you about the players you like in the draft. Can you give me a name of someone who you think might be a little overhyped right now? Well, I

think all these receivers are overhyped. I definitely think that, you know, I think that what happens is I think that's why you're seeing teams dumped the receiver market, you know. I think they're dumping these high priced receivers because they know down the road they're gonna end up getting a guy you know later in the draft, whether it's Denzel Mims in the second round, who maybe just as good, if not as some of the guys that made people think are going to go rowing. So there is depth

of that wide receiver draft. I think that that's gonna play a huge role in that Uh you know, I I think there's no doubt that you know, as you go through it, there's a lot more value in the draft. I mean, I mean, I love the safety from L. S U. Desper. You know, I think he's outstanding, and you know, when you break down the cornerback situation, you know, it always for me is is I always want a guy that I know, complained man, the man that I

know can go out there and handle things. And you know, like C. J. Henderson from Florida, I think he's an outstanding player as well. Um, Mike, I want to ask you about the draft in generally, and it gets back to the quirky off season we're having. How do you think the draft itself is going to be affected, um by what's happening in the world. No pro days, no physicals, um our team is gonna rely on just tape. Do you think maybe bigger names. School brands have more an

advantage in this draft because of what's going on. Specifically, the guy that I'm thinking about two with with no physicals and no pro days, even though I saw some video of him yesterday is obviously to h um. Does it change that video was taken? Gil know when that was taken? You know I saw that too, Yeah, I saw that. But you know, the medical has got to have to come through. I think it's gonna be challenging. Look, a lot of corners didn't run short shovels at the combine.

A lot of corners didn't run their forty at the combine. You know, corner workouts something you really have to get your hands around. You gotta go work the corner out. You've gotta go work receivers out too, even though they do drills at the combine. I mean you, you've got to work them out because so often receivers in college never faced press coverage, right, so they don't know how well they're gonna react when a guidelines up over top

of them. So you'd like to go work them out and really get them through your route three, not that stupid route tree they run into combine. So you know,

this is really gonna hinder a lot of kids. It's gonna end the smaller school kids, like for example, you know, Northwestern always has a pro Day, which people say, well, it's no big deal, it's just north question, but northwesterns pro day has a bunch of small Illinois schools that come work there, and it really is one of the best pro days to go to because you're getting a lot of players to watch work out and uh, you know, not having that trying to find that diamond in the rock,

it's going to be even harder. Jacob, if you could, could you throw up that tweet there? This is from my belief gentleman on the Redskins medical staff, just sort of requesting at this point, um that physicals and the normal operations don't happen in the National Football League this offseason because of COVID nineteen. There it is Dr Anthony Castelauro, cohead physician for the Redskins, President of the NFL Physician Society, sending a len NFL A basically NFL related physicals until

the health crisis has passed. Quote, medical resources should focus on those who are ill or in need of care. Just strange times that's for me in Rappaport. Of course at rap sheet, if you had to guess Michael right now, where does twa goo? Where does Justin Herbert go? From Oregon? I think I think Kirkert's gonna go early. I think top six. I think that to h if he's healthy, will go in the top I think people are concerned about the medical but if he's healthy, he will go early.

I could see Detroit trading out of three and moving down and let somebody pick a quarterback there. It wouldn't surprise me. Although if I were Detroit, I would seriously consider picking a quarterback as well if I thought he was a generational player. So, uh, you know, just looking at the draft as a whole, you know, and then the loves the wild card. Where does he go? There's a lot of this this, you know, Milk Keiper and

Todd they have disagreements on where he's gonna go. I'm here and he is going in the first round, and you know, that could be something that I think when you look at it, uh, you know, when you look at it, you say, oh wow, that that you know that there's you know, that's three quarterbacks in the top ten. Well, I wouldn't be surprised if there were three quarterbacks at least in the top. Fie, it's amazing. I mean, you know better than anybody. These teams go quarterback crazy. Every

draft is a quarterback league, so in some respect it's justified. Um, but I don't know that. I watched Jordan's Love and thought to myself that there would be a frenzy about him come draft day. But then I would have probably also finished the sentence by saying, but it's the draft, so these things happen with quarterbacks. Um, final couple of things talking. You know, he's got great he's got great size, skill, he played better as a junior. You know he can

do something. He's got an incredible arm. Uh, he's very talented. Is he a great quarterback? No, but he's a great athlete with a great arm. And I think those are two things that always, you know, that always go together. Yeah, great arm, no doubt about that. UM. Talking to Michael Lombardi, of course, host of Lombardi Line here at Visa Gill Alexander from San Francisco, here on the Sports Betting Network.

All right, so in recent years or in recent history, um, obviously the a f C has had maybe the two or three best teams in the league. The NFC has had sort of broader talent. You look at the NFC now and Michael, tell me if I'm wrong here, The Saints, the Niners, those rosters are loaded. Uh, Seattle still has Russell Wilson. They're always going to be an issue. Green Bay was in the NFC title game. Minnesota perennial playoff team. Cowboys are loaded, actually have a coach. Now, Atlanta should

be better, Um, Chicago will be better. We can talk about that another time with Nick Foles. Arizona's got DeAndre Hopkins, as we mentioned, beefed up their offensive line, and of course Tom Brady's on the Buccaneers. The NFC feels very top heavy. Something's got to give there. Who's not as good as I'm making them ount to be. I think Minnesota has taken a little bit of a step back. Now, you know, they obviously have more draft picks, so we'll

see what happens. But you know, to me, their their offensive line last year wasn't very good and it became a problem, you know, especially at right guard where Josh Klein played inside. Now you know Barbury and Elyn. They've got to play better, a lot of pressure on the receivers because they lose a big time outside seever that really helped, you know, feeling and feelings a really good player.

I think Dalvin Coke at Madison were really good. But I think I think my bigger concern is defensively with the Vikings. How good can they be where their corner helped coming from. Mike Zimmer needs corners. He didn't have them last year, and I think we saw that come when they played against the good teams. He's got to find another pass rusher to go along with Daniel Hunter. I mean, look, whoever signs whoever signs Everson Griffin's gonna get one hell of a player because he played really

good for him last year. I'm not sure how good Minnesota is. I'm worried about that, you know, I'm worried about their overall depth in terms of where they're going to come into UH you know, like, can they turn this corner? Will they be good enough to just to maintain the same level. Michael, I leave you with this, and I'm not asking you to predict how long the

UH the global pandemic will last and its effect on sports. Um, I wouldn't ask you that, but of your knowledge of your instinct with a guy like Roger Goodell in the NFL, established meant how how sort of I'll say, what's there? What's their emphasis on doing things as normally as possible? In other words, would you put the favorite if this last for a couple more months. Do you think they try to just go as straight as possible. Do you think they try to do things without fans, maybe start

the season without fans. What's your instinct on what they're thinking would be. I would say their instincts would be to cancel everything until training camp. I think the most important thing that they're probably thinking as training camp. Let's get the training camp, and let's get to July. And if we can get to July, then we could have a normal seat. And and if we can get to July and the pandemic is kind of under control, that

we can have a normal season July. It gives us an opportunity and maybe you know, open up open up o t A days after the first of July and have people you know, bring the players back in and get that. To me, I think they're really they're going to forego any o t a days in exchange for making sure we can go in July. Michael, I thank you. What are you doing the rest of the day, What are you reading, what are you watching? What's your activity? Well,

I got a lot of work to do. I'm working on my next book, which obviously I think I really need to write, and I'm doing there, doing a lot of research on that, and uh, you know, and I'm just gonna spend most of my day researching and and quarantining myself to this house and watching the college players in the afternoon. Any any hints on on a subject specifically about the book or you rather, Yeah, I mean

the book. Now. My book is going to be about why certain people could see the non obvious and others can't. Why the secret? As Marcus de Relians says, the secret all victory lies in the organization is a non obvious and who sees that non obvious always figures out how to win. Michael, I can't thank you enough. I appreciate it. At m Lombardi NFL hosted the Lombardi Line along with Patrick mohurt right here at Vista and thank you my goal, stay safe by friend by girl, Bye bye. M m m HM