Check it out, man, Now down, now, let us talk NFL once a game. You do this in some form. This gentleman has been kind enough to join me either on a podcast or on the radio show for eight years in a row. Now I think at this time of year and I cannot think him enough. And I bet you when I said eight years, he's like, no, it can't be eight years, ladies and gentlemen, the creator a Football Outsiders dot com and a real pioneer in pro football analytics, maybe the pioneer quite frankly, it's our
buddy Aaron Shots, good morning eron eight years. No, it can't be there it is. It's like I fed you that line. Yes it is. It's eight years Aaron. Aaron Shots, who also works for ESPN. We should note at FO underscore A Shots, that's s C H A t Z.
Aaron will get to the four games this weekend. But you know what I have to ask you first, you at Football Outsiders, you've been going back in history and you sort of got uh, I don't want to say stalled, but you know you slowed down when you got to six and then into but you have completed up until now the skins of ninety one were number one all time through d v o A. The two thousand seven
Patriots were second. Did the Bears eclipse them both? The answer is no, for the regular season and for the playoff. If you include playoffs, they do eclipse to two thousand seven Patriots. But we still have your Redskins as our number one team of all time and including the playoffs. Yes, I don't know why this makes me so happier, but
it does. Your your numbers validates it obviously. Look, this is only one way to measure There are multi you know, there's lots of different statistical methods to measure the past, and but this is the first time anybody has gone back and actually analyzed down to the play by play level for years from the eighties and nineties. So we do have You know, if you if you want to declare that the playoffs are twice as important as the regular season, then the Bears would slightly pass the Redskins.
What we when I say with the playoffs included, I'm including the playoffs with each playoff game with the same importance as the regular season. And and don't forget, as dominant as the Bears were in the playoffs, the Redskins. Also, we're really good in the pale playoffs. I mean in the Super Bowl, they were up thirty one to ten before the middle scored two touchdowns and you know what was essentially garbage time, and they won the NFC Championship
by forty one to ten. So you know, it wasn't quite as dominant as the as the Bears and eighty five, but it was pretty darn good. I attended both of those, and you're right, ten against the Lions and then it was twenty four to nothing, I believe. Also in that Super Bowl, Kurt Gouveia picked off a pass pick six at the beginning of the second half and it was pretty much Katie Barr the door. But this is so rideful for me because you know, in this I'll speak
for Redskin fans and we'll get off this. But the Redskins are akin to me. And I've said this before on the podcast and on the show, on the radio show, they're akin to the San Antonio Spurs in the sense that when people talk about basketball, the Lakers are the shiny object, or the Chicago Bulls or the shiny object. But the Spurs had this excellence over a long period of time, and they just sort of crept up every
few years and people just took it for granted. And I think the Redskins also with with players who didn't really seek out attention in the press, right Tim Duncan was arn't, Monk didn't, didn't hate the press, just didn't really want to get interviewed. They're kind of that. And so I don't want that team to ever get lost in history, and thank God for you, Aaron, you make sure it hasn't. Yeah, they were not the media stars
that Bears were, certainly. And the other thing is, um, you don't have the same sort of they built that team. Eighty four the defense was really good. Six the defense was really good. Um, you know, the it's sort of the red The Redskins came more out of nowhere sort of. Uh, you know, they had a lot of ten win seasons, but you know the quarterback kept changing, right you know Gibbs his one won three Super Bowls with three different uh,
with three different quarterbacks. So you don't have to say they didn't have the same like where you know, the core was as well known and then and then they weren't as media friendly. So um, you know, as one. As as as much as they had a lot of keen win seasons, it was it was they were just ten win seasons. Like the two seasons before were ten and six,
the one before that was seven and nine. So you don't have the same sort of build and hype that the Bears had, right, I mean, the eight five Bears recorded Super Bowl Shuffle during the season, nothing said they were actually gonna win the super Bowl right during. They could have been like the two thousand seven Patriots and blown the Super Bowl and then they'd be like, what
did we record this for? By the way, all of this through the prism of Aaron's stat over their Football Outsiders d v O A defense adjusted value over average, which calculates the team's record excuse me, a team success rather based on the down a distance of each play during the season, and calculates how much more or less
successful each team is compared to the league average. That's a short hack explanation of it, uh burying the headline, though perhaps I am as we moved to because on that list of the greatest teams of all time through d v o A, at number seven erin sits, the Baltimore Ravens do tell yes, for the regular season, you know, not including the playoffs since they haven't played in the
playoffs yet. But yes, the the Baltimore Ravens are are number seven regular season team of all time, and that is I don't think people realize just what a sugarnaut this Ravens team is. And and uh, like the Bears of eighty five and the Redskins of ninety one, like you have to be in order to be one of the best teams at all time. They were a really well rounded team. They were number one on offense, number four on defense, and number ten in special teams basically
because they had one bad game. Without Week fifteen, they'd be like number for three and special teams. So they were just really good all around. And they're they're going into the playoffs as a really dominant team. And are our simulations they win the Super Bowl forty four percent at the time. Percent of the time, I would assume San Francisco would be the next highest percentage. Um we have the San Francisco at Kansas City essentially tied fourteen
point two. Oh interesting, but all the way down to fourteen point two from yeah, that's a big it's a big we really just have Baltimore's dominant. Because also, if you look at Baltimore they've played, they're they're bad games were so early in the season that if you look at how they've played for the last ten weeks, they've had a d v o A in their single games of over for ten straight weeks. Well, the only other team that had over for the entire year was Kansas
City at thirty point two. So essentially Baltimore every one of their last ten games has been better than every other team has been for the whole season. Wow, you're really there's no there's no in the like, they haven't had any off games. The close games have been against good opponents, so once you adjust for their opponent, they're playing very well in all of their games. I don't I don't hugely disagree with that, but I'm sure there are people listening her ALA who are pretty surprised by
that gap. That's that's pretty starr um. So Baltimore is the number seventeen. Ravens are the number seven team all time through d v o A, through the lens of d v o A. Were there any other superlatives, let's call it top twenty is stuff either to the bad or to the good. Let's be very interesting to hear to the bad also per unit or overall. Yeah. Well, the Patriots were sitting among our top ever defenses for most of the year and then had their worst game
of the season in Week seventeen against Miami. Absolutely felt fat on their faces and as a result fell out of our top ten. So the twenty nineteen Patriots defense comes out as our number sixteen defense of all time. Interesting. Interesting, So that and it were not for that Miami game, they're a top ten team easily. If it's not for that Miami game, they're a top ten defense defense of all time. Were there any just yeah, go ahead, I'm
sorry the Tampa Bay box, which nobody thought about. But their past defense was mediocre, but their run defense was spectantular, and they come out as our number six best run defense ever, number six best run defense ever the bucks of this year. I don't think there's a single person listening who would have guessed that. Wow. If you, I mean, if you had Christian McCaffrey for Alvin Kamara, you know, they had really bad games. That's Tampa Bay compared to
the rest of their season. Yeah, and and It's also why fantasy you know, pundits loved every Buccaneers game. It's why the overs had cashed so well for the Buccaneers. Part of the reason because everybody was thrown on them, couldn't run on them, so everybody had to go to the right. And then there's the Jame effect. The opposite
opposite was the Carolina Panthers. The Carolina Panthers were the fifth worst run defense we've ever measured, and Fantasy, if you liked over unders, you like the Carolina Panthers to the opposite reason, because you could go over on all the running backs and and Carolina would give up the yard. They sure would. Redskins had two one yard backs against them,
I believe um over two hundred. I mean so many games where they were just getting crushed on defense um and so no overall to the bad Top twenty this year, Miami. Miami was our sixth uh sorry are our our sixth worst overall defense and our fourth worst past defense because even as Miami solved its offense and had an average offense over the second half of the year, their defense and their past defense in particular, continued to be bad
over the second half of the year. I mean, other than that pick six, Brady played reasonably well in that week's seventeen game. The problem was that the Patriots defense shut down and the Miami offense played well. So the Miami defense was still bad for the whole year. So you said, sixth worst defense overall, fourth West, worst past defense overall. Yep. And yet they were all this talk about them drafting a quarterback like that's not going to help. Well,
they need one in the long term. Their quarterback is forty years older. Yeah, but it seems like that's not I mean, based on what you just said. Good lord, we're there. You know they're missing the point. It seems like because they can. Yeah, but I the quarterback is still you built your team for the future, and that that team is about building for the future at this point. So that's still what they really need as a quarterback.
They you want to use a lot of their other draft picks on defense, that's okay with me, But they they they just they gave up a lot of passing yardage. Last thing on the season. Long how many of the twelve playoff teams did your numbers predict before the season started correctly? I think we were at seven this year, but Tennessee and Green Bay were like the first team predicted out in each conference. I see, so you got your very close to end up with seven. Yeah, all right,
I lied one last one. And this is a is a two pronged what's the team that's under the radar that perhaps didn't make the playoffs, perhaps they didn't make the bus, but mostly likely didn't make the playoffs that the average fan is not really thinking about for futures bets into next year, that you think really under formed. And what's the team that is the most overperforming that's in the playoffs. Well, I think that everybody knows about Dallas.
Everybody's gonna be hammering Dallas on future bets next year because anybody who's smart enough to bet on this stuff knows the offense is more consistent in defense, that they were really bad in close games, that they're gonna probably have a coaching change that that will help them with close games. Right. Dallas was sixth in our numbers despite being a eight. So that's the team that stands out for next year is being better than their win loss record.
But the other one is the Rams. The Rams were twelve at nine and seven, right. I think there's some some people feel like the Rams fell apart, but if you look at their overall play, the Rams did not fully fall apart. Uh. The offense decline certainly more than expected. But I think the Rams are going to come back a little bit fixed. Here Cowboys and Rams. I think
that makes sense to everybody. And then what's the most overachieving where you're like, man, this team probably shouldn't be the postseason Well, I mean we'll talk about when we talk about the postseason game. The lowest rated team the postseason teams for US is Houston. Okay, Okay, that's a portent of what's coming up. Right after the break, we'll continue and we'll talk about the four games specifically this weekend.
Aaron Shots great stuff from football Outsiders at fo Underscore, A Shots, sc H A t Z. Keep it right here for more of a numbers game with Bil Alexander. Thursday, January nine, twenty It's the Beating of the Book podcast, the Megapod Division Round Gil Alexander along with the Staples. Michael Palm from Circus Sports. Good morning, Michael, good morning.
How are you. I'm doing very well, sir. Thank you for asking Todd wish Neev from the Showtime docuseries Action Todd, How you been man, Oh, it's just been a thrilling life, Gill, how about you? And good? But I will say this, We were supposed to have Michael Lombardi on the show today, Visa's own Michael Lombardi. He also does his own podcast called g M Shuffle. He's got his own book, Gridiron Genius.
He writes for The Athletic. Michael does the podcast with ad Nan Verke, and ad Nan Verk had a death in the family and so they had to move their podcast to exactly what we're recording ours. So Michael will be with us next week and dutifully because we can always depend on him, and we love having him on because he's really a regular here too. He's really part of the crew. It's my producer number five from Visa
and he also has his own show at Visa. I Don't want to bury the headline Monday through Friday seven to nine Eastern, four to six Pacific called market Watch. It's the great Jeff Parls. Thank you for doing this, Jeff, of course, skill It's always an honor to be with you and Mike and Toddy, even though even though before before we started the record button, we sounded like Todd was recording from the service of the Sun. Yes we
have we have him now. Todd shows nothing but respect for the show by making sure that he's moving around at all times during the show. So sometimes it sounds echo and sometimes but Todd is situated not in the kitchen now correct, Huh, Well, I respect the show incredibly due to the fact that I had just signed a multimillion dollar contract with the Megapode, you know, at one point one million per year from doing this, so of
course I have to respect it properly. You weren't supposed to release the details on that, but yes, Megapod mega year deal for Todd Wishnev Mike last week. It was silly of me not to have asked you. So I'm going to ask you right now. Circus Sports, obviously week seventeen ended, you had the results of your year long contest, of your quarter four. How did the initial Circus Sports million conclude, sir, Well, the the gentleman that was in the lead booty blockers, um, he maintained in the lead
and held on to win. He really, uh, probably from the halfway point, was in first place. The key game came down to the Eagles and the Giants. He needed. He needed the Eagles in week seventeen. Um, the person that was in second needed the Giants. Once that result was in in the Eagles covered a four and a half, he was really home free. Um. His name is Isaac Meyer. He has a portfolio manager from Los Angeles. I believe Isaac Meyer wanted are you kidding me? Do you know
Isaac Meyer? I know him? Yes, absolutely. Isaac Meyer came up to me. I'm sorry for interrupting you, Mike, but I'm just like astounded the the Isaac Meyer came up to me early in the football season when he had heard me, or might have been I think it might have even been baseball. Um, when he heard me on
Gills Show and obviously saw the showtime thing. And we had a whole long conversation in the in the sports book one day, and he messaged messages me on Twitter all the time or you know, once in a while, And uh, I can't believe that that's the guy who wanted. Wow. He's thirty four, Gil, He's a portfolio manager from l A. He's actually arriving in Vegas. This morning, he's gonna be on m on Visa and with Derek and maybe myself
this afternoon on My Guys at three oh five. Then tomorrow morning at ten am at the Golden Gate Circus Boards, We're going to have a ceremony that will be taped. Much like at the Masters. I'll play the role of Jim nance Um Derek, Derek will play the club president, Jeff Benson will play the low amateur score uh and Isaac Meyer at that time and this ceremony will receive
his blue jacket and his million dollars um. So very similar to the Masters, other than the fact that a jew will be allowed there is there really a blue jacket involved. Yeah, everybody had to put their jackets sizes down, all right. Yeah, he's one regular. We had Derek's Taylor make the jacket for him. So this will be the first ceremony. Isaac Meyer from l A thirty four years old, the first the inaugural winner of the Circuits Sports million
million dollar grand prize. What was his percentage his final percentage do you remember? Well, he got fifty eight and a half right out of what possible eighty five. Todd is very good at math and charismatic. He can do the he can do the percentage there fifty eight point five divided by sixty eight point eight. Pretty damn good, pretty pretty good? And who won the fourth quarter? Just to be thorough, Yeah, fourth quarter was for the third out of four quarters a single winner, Gill, which is
really surprising. Again, um the name tall and nasty. Uh is a gentleman. I if from the detail I got was from Montana. And he actually finished with the best quarterlies. Well, I guess it's what was waited by the five weeks, right, But he finished with twenty and a half points for when the fourth quarter the hundred and forty two dollars? Nice? And now how do you feel about the west Gate
doing quarterlies next year? Mike? Well, the two changes I wish they would have made, which is the rake percentage and all the free entries they give up dates. They stood pat with that and they copied everything else side of circle. Obviously, they're going to quarterly winners, three winners each quarter. They're going to a later time to submit entries on Saturday. They're going to three entries instead of too.
So when when I heard the news last Tuesday night, I thought it was sort of akin to McDonald's announcing they were dumping the Big Mac and gonna serve whoppers. Yeah, I thought that answer would be similar to that. People can read in between the lines there if they want. All right, well, congratulations on your first year. Man, it was nothing but a success. You guys were pitch perfect.
You did everything right from the way you you started and sort of began Circus Sports, the way you instituted the contest, all the rules that contests, and you guys have been such a shot in the arm for Las Vegas sports betting in general, even beyond that contest. So seriously, man, you and Derek deserve a big congratulation. Derek deserves a lot of credit, and then we deserve credit for hiring
a really good team. Um obviously met Metcalf, Chris Bennett, Matt Linderman and the other risk managers there that I think they've done an outstanding job. What we expected from the first six months of the sports book or seven months from June one till now, it's really exceeded our expectations the reality of it, and I think we've made a lot of right moves. It's still a big learning
curve your first year. UM. As far as contests go, we're looking to either right at the end of this month or early in February, announced what our contest or contests will be for football next year and be ready to start taking entries the first week of March. Awesome because people who listen to this podcast and did not get a chance to enter this past year have all the information and they'll be able to make their decision
for next year. So hopefully it will be a nice spike not only from this show but just in general for your next contest. Todd, and as you call met Captain Lindeman, what do you call him? Jesus and the other guy? I thought it was Jesus and God? Oh yeah, Oh, I'm sorry, You're right Jesus and God my fault. Yes, who run the sports book over there at at Circus Sports And of course the Big Grand Open schedule for December for the new Shangri Law Sports book at the
New Circle. Okay, let's begin Division Round two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday, unlike last week when the NFC was on Sunday and the a f C preceded that on Saturday. Back to back games in both conferences. This is more traditional now for the division round, where the NFC games are the book ends, the a f C games are in between. Saturday games start a little later four thirty five pm Eastern one thirty five Pacific, Minnesota at San Francisco. The Vikings the sixth seed in the NFC.
Now we'll play the one seed by virtue of their win at New Orleans over the New Orleans Saints, a game that was for me just completely. What I will take away from was Sean Payton's horrific time management gaffs at the end of both halves and of the first half. Drew Brees and the Saints rushed to the line of scrimmage to get a playoff before the two minute warning, when they should have just milked it and taking their time. Instead, Breeze throws a pick which is returned thirty yards. The
Vikings end up scoring a touchdown. They take the lead into the locker room, and Will Let's misses a field goal at the end of the half. End of regulation, the Vikings have the ball just under three minutes left in the game. The Saints have used both of their first two time outs. They get a sack from camera in Jordan's after two other plays for a loss, and the Saints elect not to use their final time out.
The Vikings are able to run more than a minute excuse me, fifty nine seconds to be precise, off the clock. Saints end up then getting the ball back with less
than two minutes left. They do matriculate down the field and eventually get the game tying field goal, but it's a will Lets corkscrew job, and the Saints never end up using their third time out even had a chance to use it instead of taking a ten second run off on a false start, so they basically at best tie the game, which is what they ended up doing, and of course they lose in overtime on the Cousins to Kyle Rudolph four yard touchdown pass, which does not
really get reviewed, even though al Rivern said, yeah, yeah, we looked at it. It It was fine. And that's to me what I'll only remember from that game. Kirk Cousins, though congratulations to him, never had a playoff win before he made the throws when he needed to. Troy Aikman called that forty three yard or to Adam Feeling the best pass of Kirk Cousin's career, which set up the game winning touchdown. San Francisco now favored by seven points
in this game. The total is forty four. Parlay. We start with you, sir, all right, So this is this is the toughest game on the board for me because I can see about seven different things occurring in this game. Uh, the most likely thing that I see occurring in this game, Gil, I'm not going to pick a side. I'll go over the total here. Uh, we're going with forty four and a half consensus is what I'm seeing right now. Really, New Orleans moved the ball whenever they wanted when Payson
Hill was in there. San Francisco is running backs obviously, is a great collection of backs. I know their offensive line is banged up, but I feel like San Francisco will be able to move the ball. And if Minnesota's offensive line holds up, and this has been the case the whole year against the Niners, when the opposing offensive line is held up against that elite pass rush, the Niners have given up points. And I think Minnesota's offensive
line obviously is not the greatest. We saw them turn Green Bay into the eighty five Bears in weeks sixteen on that Monday night. But now that the monkey is off, Kirk Cousins back. I have a feeling he's gonna play loose with no pressure in this game, and Minnesota is gonna hang around and there's gonna be points. And this is something in the area code of four UH with the Niners winning. But I don't feel comfortable up lay in the seven. So I'll go over the total UH
in Niners in Minnesota and we'll give even better. I'm with you on the I have no play on the side pre flop for me, nothing, Michael palm Uh. I bet this at six and a half scal when the number opened, I laid the points here. I think this is a really tough spot for the n teams, having playing on six days rest and really losing two days to travel, having had to go to New Orleans to come back to fly to San Francisco, play Sunday afternoon
and in the early game on Saturday. You get a forty nine years team that's rested, healthy, had a lot of time to game plan here. And I'm not in love with Kirk Cousins on grass. Okay, we've seen his performances on grass through the years have not been great, especially on the road. Say, yes, they beat San Diego by thirty, but Sandygo what they turn it over seven, eight, nine times and kept giving Minnesota the ball. They were
defensive scores. I go back to the Bears game, which is probably a better comparison when they played in September UM on what they'll face in San Francisco. You know it's it'll be cool and it'll be windy in San Francisco as well. I think on paper the forty Niners on a neutral field are probably four and a half five points better, So I felt comfortable lane six and
a half. I know the numbers moved to seven, but I still think that's a play with Yeah, I don't have a problem with Kirk Cousins on grass, after all, he played his entire Redskin career and put up a whole bunch of gaudy stats on grass in d C. But I do have doubts about his decision making late in games, although obviously we didn't see it at New Orleans. I'm not over that yet. But I also have issues
with the Niners in that I love them. I still think they're going to the Super Bowl, but special teams plays a little shoddy sometimes. Kyle Shanahan, for as great as he has been, and I love Kyle Shanahan as a coach. He made r G three great in d C, but he makes some curious managerial decisions late in games also. And as Todd has often said, and maybe I'm seig going right to you on this, Todd, there's always that worry that Jimmy g is gonna do something wrong at
some critical point. So I am just staying off this pre flop Dot. I'm gonna lean with Mike. I'm not gonna bet this, but I lean San Francisco and uh. And here's why Minnesota all year was great at home and crappy on the road. It is Kirk Cousins. I don't trust Kirk Cousins. I know he played a good game in New Orleans, but come on, they were up twenty to ten and let the other team back in the game. It's not exactly like they you know, slaughtered
New Orleans or anything. Um. San Francisco and any time can open up a giant cann of whoopass on somebody with their running game there, their kid all there. You know, they can blow people out they blew the Packers out at home. They blew some other teams out. It doesn't come to mind right away, but they blew other teams and uh out at home. Minnesota is, you know, a similar team to the Green Bay package. Why can't they were just go blow them out if they're playing well.
On the other hand, as you said, there's a little nervousness about Jimmy. I don't think it's gonna show up here. I think it's gonna show up in a in a bigger round than this. I leaned to San Francisco and uh, I mean, I'm not gonna I'll probably in game this, but uh, San Francisco is aside for me, I just don't think Minnesota can do it. Two weeks in a row.
San Francisco weather fifty five degree high on Saturday for this U chance precipitation so barely at all, but seventeen mile per hour winds, which is interesting that that comes up on the weather report. As far as the weather for Baltimore, which is the next game on Saturday, UH
should be let's see, I'm on the wrong day. Saturday, chance of rain should really be even warmer in Baltimore than it is in San Francisco, which for people who live in the Bay probably aren't very surprised by that, but should be high fifties in Baltimore, could be all excuse me by game time should be in the sixties U in Baltimore. So very good balmy weather in Baltimore for this one between the Titans and the Ravens. Eight fifteen pm. Start in charm City as they like to
call it, by the way, sixty three degrees. According to this long range forecast, ten and a half point vivorites. Now let's call it ten point favorites, either nine and a half or ten point favorites in favor of the Ravens. Crackenburger. Bill Crackenburger and I were talking about this on a numbers game at Visa this morning on Sirius XM channel two O four. How a lot of books have the tens to prevent six and a half point teasers from
getting to the three. But it's tens or nine or nine and a half totals forty six and a half forty seven. Tennessee. With that amazing win over the Patriots, biggest sequence, of course of that game was that goal line stand when the Patriots were up late in the first half. They were up ten to seven, first and goal at the one, two plays where they lost the yard and gained the yard, and then on third down. No sneak on any of those downs from Tom Brady,
who's calling card has always been the quarterback sneak. They lose three yards, they kick a field goal, Titan score before the end of the half, and they hold that score four really the whole way until the final seque of the game, when there was a pick six. Patriots ended up getting the ball subsequently there with nine seconds left.
That's when the pick six happened. But Baltimore number one seed in the a f C against the low seat when the a f C in Tennessee, Baltimore with a ten point bulls or nine and a half, Mike, you got first crack at this. Yeah, I like this game over. Um. I think that Baltimore is gonna put up a lot of points here. Um. I don't think that this Tennessee defense, the defensive line, you know, the Patriot's head struggles running
the ball. I don't think Baltimore will have these struggles. Um. And then I think that will open the game up for for Lamar, I get a little hesitant on lane close to ten in this spot because I just to Todd's point, you're up fourteen, you're up, you know you're up thirteen late, and that backdoor is always open. So I prefer to take this total over. I think the weather will be decent, and I think Baltimore will will score somewhere close to thirty points. Can anyone stop Derrick Henry?
I guess is what this really comes down two for me? Todd your thoughts. I'm looking at Baltimore's defense, and I see I wasn't as impressed with Tennessee's win. Now, we all, we all won with that Tennessee thing, but that was more a bet against New England than a bet on Tennessee. I wasn't impressed with the fact that Tennessee couldn't score it all in the second half against New England, and that really Tannehill really kind of looked like Miami Tannehill
in that game rather than new and improved Tannehill. But if you look at who he did it against, there weren't a lot of really big teams in there, and the one really good team they played, they got spanked by New Orleans after taking a big lead Baltimore Ravens. If you look back over the last about ten to twelve weeks, the most points they've ever given up is twenty to New England when they won thirty seven twenty
in a blowout. Other than that, it's a bunch of thirteen sixteen, seventeen, six, seven, ten, fifteen against teams similar to Tennessee. So I don't see Tennessee getting more than maybe seventeen to twenty points here, And so I leaned Baltimore. Actually in the game, I think Baltimore can easily get to thirty. You know, thirty one seventeen wouldn't surprise me. Uh you know, I I lean Baltimore. Again, I was
not that impressed with Tennessee. I think it was more New England just didn't have the horses, and you know, they won because New England couldn't score. Uh, you know, I'm not that impressed with Tennessee. Look when they played the Saints, one of the few really good teams they played, they were up big and just blew the whole game. So you know, why can't Baltimore get into the thirties
on them? They should easily be able to I'll lean Baltimore and notice you've leaned to San Francisco, lean Baltimore, but not bets for you flop none. I'm probably I'll probably do some form of teasing with these games. I don't think, I don't think I'm going to pre flop bet them, but I'll definitely be, you know, probably looking for ways to either ten point tease seven points, finding some kind of tease, you know, combination. Because I like
these two favorites. I'm the same way I loved a couple of games last week pre flop but did in Tennessee being one of them, even on the money line, as we discussed on this show. But I'm with you, I am not gravitating towards these games in terms of a T S pre flop the same way. But yes, teasers are definitely going to be in play. We'll get to that momentarily. And not to fixate on Derrick Henry, but I brought this up on the on the radio side. Do you see that footage they had a Derrick Henry
in high school. That was the most comical high school footage I have ever seen of anybody. It's like if the four of us ran out a pewee football team to playoffs, and then we had Todd just bowl all of them over. Like It's just it was just unbelievable to watch. And Dave Farren, Matt Brown and I we do a fantasy show on Sunday. We started to look up Derrick Henry stats. His senior year in high school, he had two different times where he had back to
back games with six touchdowns. He had another game where he had like fifty seven carries for four hundred and fifty some yards. Just ridiculous. But he has been better and better as the year progresses. He did the same thing last year. We will see if Baltimore can hold him in check. That'll go a long way towards determining this one. Jeff, I'm I agree with not betting this game preflop. This is a lean for me as well.
And I'll go actually off of of what Todd said, and I'll go with the Titans getting the ten or the nine and a half, especially if it's the whole ten. Derrick Henry didn't play against New Orleans. Uh. The Titans have beaten Kansas City during this stretch, when they've when when they've gotten when they had Tannehill, and they've gotten better and got in the playoffs. Granted that was such a wacko game and it was almost two months ago,
but look, Tennessee's defense does not get enough credit. And I know New England is lacking weapons and it's a shell of what that offense has been through the years, but they still shut down the Patriots after that, After that goal line stand, the Patriots never threatened the store again. And at some point when it was kept hanging of fourteen thirteen, he's still in the back of your mind. It's like it's still Brady, It's still Bell and check.
The Patriots are gonna find a way. And the Titans never even allowed them to even get close to field goal range to take the lead at the end of that game. And the one thing I keep coming back to, the Ravens have not played a bad game since Week four. At some point a conquer has to show up or the Ravens are, like Aaron Shot said on a Numbers game last week, Gil or the Ravens are legitimately a top seven team in the history of the NFL. They
don't have a clunker. So at some point something's gonna Something's gotta give either Baltimore is a legitimate top ten team of all time or they're gonna have a conquer and Tennessee is is an uneasy matchup because of the way they run the ball and the way they played defense. This feels like a one score game, so it's an easy It would be a take of the nine and
a half or ten with Tennessee for me. Yeah, And I hope people listen to the first part of this podcast because I threw on the Arran Shot segment where he does by his rankings again from Football Outsiders, which go all the way back through five season. He's got the Baltimore Ravens as far as regular seasons are concerned, as the seventh greatest team in the last thirty four years or thirty five years of the National Football League. As far as Sunday Yes, please, can I can I
say something? He also said, I I like Aaron Shots. I like models. He also earlier in the season has New England as I think the best defense or second best defense of all time. I mean, can we just slow our role a little bit? Here? Finished six best, right, But I'm saying at the time he was telling us that it was number one or number two and model right, And so I will question that if the Ravens win the Super Bowl, that the seventh best team of all time. I think that is also a little uh. I don't
know aggressive well, and I questioned him as well. But I think what was interesting more than anything is the gap between the Ravens in terms of all of his simulations and their teams winning the Super Bowls. This was before winning the Super Bowl, this is before the playoffs started. That in his simulations the Ravens wincent of the time, the Chiefs and the Niners four percent of the time. Like, that is a gap that I think most observers would
be like, wow, are you serious? But Jeff, your counter to what Todd saying would be, what, look, if they can play? They have not played a bad game since they lost the Cleveland in Week four. So that basically the big counter to me on that is is it is extremely difficult to play double digit weeks in a row of near flawless football. You could argue that Lamar Jackson has not played a single bad game since then. Their special teams has played flawlessly except for that random
Thursday night against the Jets and Todd brought it up perfectly. Defensively, the Ravens defense has been really good since they got Marcus Peters, and they've been shutting teams down just at some point to me, and the reason I lean Tennessee is how it is nearly impossible to play thirteen straight games with no clonkers. So I just would I would just be scared with the fact I think that that Tennessee is gonna have to score some points to stay
inside the number. And Derrick Henry is not really a point scorer. He's more of a control of the ball person. Look big Todd, Todd, the big thing too is and you mentioned and you're right, Ryan Tannehill could come out and throw three interceptions and it's enough in Baltimore nine minutes into the game, and my bets cook that's the case. But I'm I'm relying on on Tennessee's defense, which I don't think gets enough credit to slow down Baltimore enough.
And then when they're on offense, Derrick Henry not to do what he did last week, because that's a d eight yards is not gonna happen every week. If Henry is in the one twenties, Tennessee's got a shot here to at least keep this thing within the number, and of course down sixteen with with five minutes to go, they could get a backdoor touchdown, and then I'm in that way too. Yeah. I mean, that's why, and that's why most of us aren't on anything pre flop, because
we can see all kinds of scenarios. Last thing about the greatest team of all time thing or the greatest team at least through five. You know, we often talk about recency bias when it comes to week to week National Football League in our handicapping. This is sort of the opposite of recency bias, that we're almost too close to the sun with a team like the Ravens. We almost go the other direction when we think about teams
of lore. So while we're in the moment, I don't think we always realize because what Jeff saying is right, we may not realize just how good this team is that we're watching in Baltimore. The number one team since for Aaron Shotson Football Outsiders through his metric of d v O A is the Washington Redskins. And unless you're a Redskins fan like me who lived every snap of that season and new as a fan, this is the at his damn football team I've ever seen in my
damn life. Most people who are football fans as big football fans as I am, don't process it that way. Didn't at the time, but with time they're probably like, Oh wow, Mark Rippin only got sacked seven times all year. Oh wait a minute, they only lost one legitimate game all season in all of the postseason. So I guess what I'm saying is it's it's a it's a boulder take for Aaron to say what he's saying about the Ravens than it is for us to say, wait a minute,
that can't be right about the Ravens. I think that needs to be said. Anyway, let's move to see I know I'd like to ask the panel of the question, please, I'll think of a factor. Do you think for Lamar Jackson his performance against San Diego in the Divisional round will be as he heads into this game? Interesting question? Do you mean that the San Diego game last year?
Is that what you're talking about? Yeah? When when at the went in the fourth quarter of the Baltimore fans were booing and calling for Flacco, so let's just make us a there. Let's say Tennessee goes up nothing like, does that creep into Lamar Jackson? Is that what you're asking? I don't think so, yeah, that's what I'm asking. How big of a factor was what probably his worst pro performance last year, which was in the playoffs against the Charges. I don't I don't think it's gonna have to be
a factor. And and you know these guys they're playing, I don't think they're thinking about that kind of thing. But Lamar Jackson has been pretty much unstoppable all year. Harbor has been fantastic. Uh, the offensive coordinator has has has created a brilliant scheme there. I really don't think that's going to be an issue. And I personally, I really don't think that Tennessee is that good just based on the New England game. I mean, New England lost to Miami at home. They were not a good team.
At the end of the year. Tennessee barely squeaked that game out. Now Jeff was saying New England never got close. Had had the guy um Edelman not dropped the ball around the fifty line, they may have lost the game. So Um, I don't think it's gonna have a major factor in and be a major factor in this game. For Lamar, I think they're just they're they're rolling too well right now. And uh, you know, I just don't
really buy into that kind of stuff. I'm I'm with Todd on that, Mike, you feel otherwise for asking the question, I'm guessing it's it's it's it's it's I think it's a question you have to ask when handicapping this game and wonder, especially from in game opportunities, if the start isn't ideal as Jeff suggests for Baltimore, will that put extra pressure on Jackson in this spot? Definitely worth pottery
and and time will tell. I mean, just in general, Baltimore falling behind in a game like, we just don't see that right. So well, well, Gil at one add one thing here? When is John Harball And look, Hardball is an unbelievable coach. He's want a super Bowl, he want a super Bow with Flacco for goodness sakes, Um, They've never been the hunted. They've always been the hunter. This is the first time that they're the number one overall seed. Everyone's trying to chase down Baltimore now, it's
a whole different team than what they've had in the past. Obviously, ray Lewis has gone, Flacco's gone, and Reid's gone. All those elite players from those from even that Super Bowl team for the most part, aren't there anymore. But this is a new game for John Harbaugh as a coach, and I imagine he'll he'll probably be his steady hand self. But I think Mike's question does have a little bit
of merit. I don't think it will impact it because I think Lamar Jackson is a completely different player than he was twelve months ago, especially throwing the football. He's a lot more confident, and he was much better this year, and then he was at any point a year ago throwing the ball. But if it's somehow tend nothing Tennessee at the end of the at the end of the first quarter in Baltimore, struggling to move the ball, that's
when the questions can start creeping in a little bit. Well, I guess that's what I'm saying is is we've we've framed it as a Lamar Jackson mental thing. But what I guess I'm saying is they're just never behind to begin with. How would we be able to differentiate between the fact that it's Lamar or just the fact of the team as a whole is just never used to being in this position. Are they a team built for a comeback? Right? So it'll be fun to watch. That's
the second game on Saturday, that's for sure. Sunday another a f C game. This is the game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. Three oh five Eastern twelve oh five Pacific start. Chiefs nine and a half, ten point favorites, right in that same pocket as Baltimore the day before. Um, Houston, boy, I don't know how they won that game against Buffalo, but man sixteen to nothing deficit, they come back to make it sixteen to eight. Strip sack, They get a field goal, then a three
and out Buffalo. Excuse me. Houston takes the lead after a two point conversion. It's nineteen to sixteen. Buffalo mature, you know, matriculates. There's a josh Alan lateral on the way out. Not a matriculation. I don't know what he was doing, but anyway, they end up getting it third down in field goal range to tie the game. The Bills do intentional grounding horrible sack. They lose thirty three
yards on two plays. That second play. They should have punted anyway on fourth and twenty seven, but there was no one in Sean McDermott's here to say, hey, coach, probably should punt. We got the three time outs anyway, it might as well pin them. But they do end up successfully using those three time outs after three rushes, and then Houston doesn't convert on a fourth in one where Deshaun Watson get stoned. Buffalo ends up tyeing it
in regulation. Houston on an unbelievable iconic play for their franchise, Deshaun Watson bounces off two tackles, spin and bounces, really finds his running back thirty four yard pick up and of course uh Kimi fairbar and wins it in overtime twenty two to nineteen. And that, of course doesn't even include the phantom blindside block on the bills that preceded that that took them out of potential game winning field goal range Houston's here. Somehow they got through, but they
get the Chiefs. Weather in Kansas City if this game we're on Saturday, snow in the forecast, but on Sunday above freezing and nothing but sunshine. In case we start with utadd on this one. First of all, I just want to say, I is there a team, Is there a coach that does worse on fourth and inches than Bill O'Brien in the history of football. I can remember so many fourth down in less than one were Bill O'Brien somehow blew it, and it happened again this past week.
But I can remember a Raiders game one time, and there was a Chiefs game. I mean, just so many antics and craziness happening when it's I remember one time he gave it to like a hundred and sixty pound back on fourth and one and didn't make it. From many years ago, he is just a fourth and one nightmare. Uh. Anyways, that that that being said, I don't think Houston has a chance in hell in this game. I know they beat him earlier in the year. That was a different
Kansas City team. I think Kansas City has their ducks in a row. Am I gonna pregame? Bet it? Probably not again. I'll probably be looking to use it in some form of teaser. I don't think Houston is that good. I don't even think they should have won the game last week. I think if Buffalo, you know, had played that a little smarter, there there was no way Houston was even coming back in that game. Uh, so many things had to go right for them to even advance.
I think they're a very flawed football team with a very flawed coach. Again, I think he's a good coach, not an elite coach. He's kind of like a Tomlin. He can get you to nine, ten, eleven wins, but he's not going to take you anywhere spectacular. I'm not a fan of Bill O'Brien as far as being an elite coach. So you know, like I said, I'll probably be on some form of Kansas City and teasing, but I don't want any part of Houston. Yeah, I fail
to mention. The total is the one that's moved the most on the board forty eight and a half all the way to fifty one. Nowift one across the board in this game, and I wonder if that's because the weather looks like it will have cleared up already by Sunday. Jeff, I'll go under that fifty one. How is Houston and to score more than U score more than ten points in this game. With the way Kansas City's defense is
starting starting to play over these last six weeks. First matchup was a high scoring game that UH that that UH finished at fifty five, but it was a different Kansas City Chief squad there. Mahomes had his banged up ankle. UH. The Chief defense was still historically awful at that point earlier in the year. But the Chief defense has really really looked like a real unit and a good unit the last six games. Mahomes is healthy, the offense is healthy.
As a whole, This Chief team is really really scary right now as a whole. I don't feel comfortable laying that many points because we've the same reason that I wouldn't lay it with Baltimore. All takes is one back door touchdown and you're screwed, even though even though you
maybe up seventeen or or fourteen. Basically the whole way, I'll go under the fifty one this UH, this Kansas City team, Gail, there's a reason that I hopped in on them on the futures market UH in between week sixteen and seventeen, which ended up turning out to be the correct time to do it. We couldn't have foreseen New England watching that game to Miami, but they did, so I can't. I'm all in on casey UH winning this game. Not comfortable enough to lay the points, but
I'll go under. I'm not sure how Houston scores more than ten or ten or fourteen points in this game. And let's not forgetting that Houston Buffalo game. Referees almost tried to give Buffalo gift I should say, Buffalo a touchdown on the opening kickoff of the second half when UH referees briefly decided not to pay attention to the
safe signal given by UH. The Houston return man tried to give Buffalo a touchdown when they recovered in the end zone, but cooler heads prevailed from the referees caucusing, and they decided, okay, no, that's not what he meant. He did give a safe sign. Let's not all get crazy, sort of like that coin flip in that Cowboys Rams game, or Dak Prescott did or did not say defer and they're like, oh no, they had the ball twice and then cooler heads prevailed there as well. The XFL is
showing us that all of this referee injection stuff. Just stop it. You know exactly what Dak Prescott meant. If a team receives in one half, it should just be given that they are excuson if they kick off, if they differ in one half, they should just get the ball automatically in the second. And much like this, with a safe sign that was given, he's given himself up. Shouldn't be a touchdown. Let's not act like it should be. Mike, did you feel that way about that play? I did.
It's it's beyond ridiculous now and the level of the officiating has sunk to its lowest And maybe I'm remembering things as they never were, but growing up, I don't remember so many gaffs on a weekly basis where you could find a top five bad horrendous calls or top ten or so many of these. So many of these head officials now are just empty suits, and they're not
memorable at all. At we we grew up with very what seemed like commanding figures in these games, and maybe replay has changed it, but it's the credibility of the product can to needs to decline. I agree, it's a man. I don't remember a band like this before and coaching decisions being so bad. Your thoughts on this one, Mike, Yeah, I don't know. Maybe I'm crazy here, but I think
this is too many points. Um, let's remember that Kansas City was life and death to beat San Diego Bike and Philip Rivers Bike ten in the last game of the year. I mean, they needed a kick return touchdown and really really turn that game around. I don't know, watching and maybe it's a recency bias of of watching DeShawn Watson and how how tough he is down the stretching games, and and you know that they have some weapons back this week, and I I think that they
keep this game within the number. I cannot lay it. I'm not sure if I pre flop it or if I wait for endgame, but I'm a heavy lean here on the top. On the Texas. Wow, I'm so you're You're the first person I've heard say that this week, sort of like the Clemson LS. You think I'm getting worried about because everybody's with Clemson in the points. Nobody was talking about the Vikings being able to beat the Saints last week, and nobody's talking about the Texas this week.
You're a percent, right, I didn't hear one person until like that morning with somebody. I met somebody from Minnesota, Dave Ferre's brother, who was like, oh, I think they'll win. Until that point, I had not heard one person. I think the Vikings can went out right. Seattle at Green Bay is obviously the last game of the four winner plays the winner of Minnesota San Francisco in the NFC. Weather in green Bay once again, if it were Saturday, they'd have snow instead. It's just gonna be cold as
hell to four degrees. Obviously, we've seen games much colder in green Bay before. By green Bay standrews. Maybe that's even a little ball me. At this time of year, green Bay is a four point favorite. There's some four and a half's out there as well. In this one, the totals forty seven, shortest spread of the board, that's for sure, Jeff, we start with you here, oh man.
So Seattle, Seattle needed Josh McCown to play that whole game instead of Carson Wentz in order to win that game, Gil, I really do believe that because at some point, I mean McCown kept dry even them down and driving them down, and then something would befell the Eagles, and they wouldn't. We couldn't get in the end zone last week green Bay, as we talked about on this podcast and on the Numbers game and basically all over all over the Visa
Network as well. Green Bay's paper Tiger thirteen and three. But yet here they are there a two seed. Uh, they could vary. This game could very easily. It wouldn't stun me in Minnesota went to San Francisco and one. But but we could be staying all right, this game is for home field in the NFC Championship game. I have nothing on this game. Deal Ei, there are no no bets at all, because I can see Seattle winning the game out right. I could see Green Bay winning
by two touchdowns. I could see this game ending. I could see this game ending thirteen to nine. It's I had no feel whatsoever. So this is a This is a complete nothing for me in this game. I just got a text this has nothing to do with anything ProFootball that Mike Leach has headed to miss Sippy State. Oh my god, they are really between Lane given and
um Mike Leach. Wow, I can't lose the press conference. Yeah, of course, as Jeff was alluding to, Seattle got here by virtue of their win over the Eagles last week. Carson Wentz hurt in the first quarter. I was saying on a numbers game, all these people are like up, Carson Wentz can't get it done the big game. He got blindsided in the helmet and pounded into the ground. Stop with the Carson Wentz narratives. But Seattle got it done, identical seventeen to nine win over the Eagles that they
had in the regular season. Much different trajectory of the game though, And in this one, I would argue, you know, for as much as I killed Sean Payton his performance against the Vikings, Pete Carroll kind of botched the clock at the end of the first half, but he got bailed out by roughing the passer penalty. And at the end of the game, if that pass doesn't get completed from Russell Wilson to DK metcalf, who knows, maybe people are killing Pete Carroll for that too. I happen to
like that pass at that time. But the Seahawks get it done. They sack mccalen six times, Wentz one time before that set in total. Sas Mikey, what do you think here. I love this under kill. But let's not forget this is a five thirty local start. This is a night game. It will be dark already a kick up in green Bay, and it's only going to get colder as the game goes on. I think the total is way too high. We've seen the cold weather games in green Bay already this year. It's very hard to
catch these long passes. It's hard to move the ball down the field quick. Um I think the green Bay defense has gotten better through the course of the year. Um I still think at thirteen and three they're they've overachieved that that record is how good as they really are. I think their offense is actually their weakness. Um I. I would think that green Bay is going to be able to win this spot just because Seattle really doesn't have a rushing attack and will make them one dimensional.
But this is for me as a play on first quarter under, first half under in game. Under is the total right now in this game as we do this on Thursday morning. Again, not not quite the Ice Bowl, not quite that game against the Giants where Tom Coughlin's face fell off, but still by the way I thought Tom Coughlin was gonna die on the field that I really was concerned for his own Todd. You know, I just want Russell Wilson when uh, I'm in a tough spot.
He just seems so incredibly elusive and able to pull plays out of his out of his butt. I just don't understand how you stopped the guy. Now, granted, there have been games where he has been stopped. The game against Arizona was kind of a conundrum how that happened. I wasn't really sure. Uh, And there have been another couple of games where Seattle just hasn't looked that great on offense, and quite frankly, Seattle's defense is not exactly
great either. Um. But you know, in the end, if I'm getting four and a half, I mean this, this is the kind of game that feels to me like a backdoor touchdown could easily get scored. Uh. I think I Russell Wilson running around like a crazy person, causing green Bay's defense tremendous problems late, and uh, you know, if anything, I would lean to Seattle here. Also, green Bay has just been up and down. I mean they got blown out at San Francisco, they got blown out
by the Chargers. I mean who is Green Bay? They killed Minnesota on the road. Are they the good team? Are they the bad team? I'm not sure what they are. So um, you know, I don't like this game much, but if I have to play it, I would lean to Seattle. Yeah. I I literally I don't remember a show where I didn't have one single pre flop pick on any of these. I'm doing UH radio in my hometown Washington, d C. Later today, and I don't know what I can provide these people other than teasers which
are about to come up. But you raise an interesting point there too, Todd, which is which makes the NFL. This is what makes the NFL so maddening. You pointed out Seattle just a couple of weeks ago they looked like a dog crap against Arizona in Minnesota. Two weeks before their win last week against the Saints, they looked as Jeff put it, as we said it as we
put it on a numbers game. This week, they made the Packers defense look like the eighty five Bears, and then two weeks later they're this unbelievable team on on the complete opposite end. So it's it's just such a maddening game to be able to determine from week to week, even here with full motivation obviously uh in the postseason as always, guys, support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years.
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speed round. We'll get to the final two questions momentarily, but let's start with our two team six point teasers of the week, which once again I wasn't able to get correct last week because who didn't who? Who killed it for me? Because New Orleans didn't get there. New Orleans didn't get there. That's right, Jeff. Let's start with you to uh team six pointers, sir? All right, San Francisco down to one, and I will I'll make this all Saturday so I can get that. I can just
torture myself for one day. We'll we'll pop, We'll pop Tennessee up to the sixteen or the fifteen and a half, whichever number it is, will pop Tennessee up. So San Francisco minus one and Tennessee either's sixteen or fifteen and a half. And I don't hate it. Mikey, Well, the forty niners is the obvious one for me. Down to one. I think I'll take the Texans up the fifteen and a half or whatever. Wowd give me give me Seattle plus ten and a half and give me the San
Francisco forty Niners down to one. O, Toddy, I have your same teaser that means it's gonna lose San Francisco Seattle. Should we all be betting Minnesota now since we all had the Niners in there? Oh man, this is not good.
Not good. By the way, Todd and I do a segment he's on every Wednesday with me, we do a segment on a numbers game in visa UH seven and nine Pacific tend to noon Eastern money through Friday at series sex and two or four called half big betting tips with that because if they were fully baked, we wouldn't talk about them. Do you enjoy the half bake segment? Todder is pretty much all of that we talk about sort of in game half bake stuff. It's not really
you know, we we think of through. I just love coming on a Numbers game and doing my um, you know, my part for the community gives something back. You know, well, well you have the multimillion dollar contract with the podcast, So what do you care now? Exactly exactly? All right, final two questions, gentlemen. Again, we asked this during the
regular season, and it makes more sense. But with four games on the slate, you can still last it will throw out Seattle Green Bay because that's the short number which is below six six and a half. And we'll ask it of the other three games of the big favorite San Francisco favored by seven over Minnesota, Baltimore favored by nine and a half or ten against Tennessee in Kansas City favored by nine and a half or ten against Houston. Which of the big favorites is the most
likely to lose outright? Mikey Chiefs Chiefs, Wow, Todd The biggest favorite to lose out right, I think is going to be m hm, well, yeah, supposed to say Francisco, but we all, well, that's right. I I can't really see what I mean. The Seattle is not gonna count, right, No, Seattles doesn't count. You can't pick that one. I don't want to pick any of these. I don't pick Adam, Adam, Jeff. Yeah,
I'm gonna say Baltimore. I'm gonna say Baltimore just because I can't bring myself to say Kansas City against Houston. Although Houston, I mean everything I just said about green Bay, excuse me about Minnesota and Seattle. I could say that about Houston too, in the opposite right, Houston one week, they're terrible the next week I was like, Oh, there's Houston. They could beat anybody, and then they suck, So yeah, I'm going Baltimore though, all right? And then the final
question you had to play? This is gonna be sort of counterintuitive because we don't like any of these, so maybe I should say maybe I should do it the other way around. Let's say you didn't have to play any of these, but you were forced to play one of them pre flop A T S. Which I've never really asked before, but this seems like the appropriate week to ask it. You were forced to play a T S on one of these games? Which team? In which game?
Would it be? Todd? But if I if I didn't one game that I don't want to play, ever, I'm gonna say, in other words, on the side, is there one you're forced to play? Like? You didn't like any of them? Pre flop A T S? Right, okay, so but I'm forcing you to pick one, Todd, It's not that complicated. Which one do you want? I guess if you're forcing me to play, I'll take San Francisco. Did you didn't want to answer either of the final two questions? Did you all right? I don't like I didn't like
these questions this week. I'm sorry. That's that's an answer. I guess, Jeff, by virtue of the fact that I gave Tennessee as a lead. I would take the Titans if you're gonna make it, pick one of the score games. And Mikey, I already gave San Francisco, you already gave San Francisco. Mine would be the Seattle Seahawks of are in might tease with the Niners, but that would be my choice. All right, boys, I think that's really it. Really,
We've done all we can do. Divisional Round, National Football League. Jeff Parlay, thank you very much for coming in on such short notice. You are a mensch. Thank you, my friend. Thank you. Gil always always a pleasure. And we will have Michael Lombardion next week with us for Championship Round and then the weekend between Championship Round and the Super Bowl. I know, Todd you said you're gonna be out of town,
but we're still doing a lifestyle podcast. Are you still down for that or do you want me to get somebody else to do it? No, I'll do lifestyles of the relatives of the rich and famous. Okay, Well, it's not kind of like that show. It's more like restaurants
and uh, I don't know what else you do. You don't do anything but do sports, though you bet sports well, Todd can tell us his favorite sports books in town, Gil, this might be a good week for for the Parles food expertise to uh, I can I can testify that Jeff Parls does enjoy food at a very high level of quantity. Let's put it. That does well, Mike, Mike, He's definitely in. Yes, Mikey, you're in for that kind
of show. I'm I'm in, but I'm interested going to the concept of having Todd on to do a lifestyle show when he's famous for not having a life life and no life and no style both, you know what I will. I will take those both as a compliment. Thank you. Of course, Mark Meltzer will be here to join us Man about Town for the Vegas Lifestyle Show, but that's after next week when we have Lombardi Championship around.
Thank you, Jeff, thank you Mike, thank you Todd. Good luck to all of you division around National Football League. Thank you so much for listening.