Beating The Book: Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders & NFL MegaPod Divisional Round 2019

Vegas Stats and Information Network bild gideons will believe in analytics. Analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers and Gil has every number you need to cash your tickets now live from the Visa in studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is a numbers game right here at Visa, the Vegas Stats and Information Network, serious XM Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, Fubo TV, where all books are so old, right,

maybe not that last one. Uh. This is where sports betting analytics live actionable sports betting information on the show this hour. Kind enough to make quarterly appearances with us on the show this year, and we appreciate that this is always the time that he uh grants me some time he hangs out with me on this show and on the podcast to just sort of do a little brief year in review and then a projection into the playoffs.

It's the great errand Shots from Football Outsiders. Good morning, Erin, Hey, good morning. I'm excited to talk to you because I always ask you the same sort of template of questions at this time during the season, and I want to start with some of those. The historical context of a certain offense and a certain offense to the good and to the bat I should say this year, uh, namely the Chiefs and the Cardinals. Put those if you would, sir,

in historical perspective for us based on your numbers. Right, So for folks who don't know the numbers at Football Outsiders are main stats called d v o A. It stands for defense adjusted value over average. We have to stat breaking down play by play, going all the way

back to what's important is that it's normalized by year. Okay, so it controls for the fact that the offensive environment of this year was so high, and based on that, we have Kansas City as the fifth best offense of the last thirty three years and Arizona as a third worst defense of the last thirty three years. Third worst offense. You mean of the last thirty three years, the third worst, sorry, third worst offense of the last thirty three years. Right, yeah,

so that the only offense is worse. Here's the thing that some of the offense is better than the Chiefs, which are fifth the best in the last thirty three years according to d v o A your number. I remember some of those offenses, namely the number one team, which is the two thousand seven Patriots, which made the bid to go undefeated before getting beat by the Giants in the Super Bowl. Uh and the night Broncos, also

a Super Bowl winning team just above them. When I look at the when I look at the two teams that were worse than the Cardinals over that thirty three years, man, thank goodness, I have no recollection of these two teams there in two thousand two Texans and ninety two Seahawks. What were those two thousand two Texans were an expansion team where I believe that David Carr set the all

time record for taking sacks in the season. And the ninety two Seahawks were one of these incredible teams with a really great defense led by Kenny Easily and Cork has Kennedy, but their offense was so putrid. They used three quarterbacks during the year, Kelly uh Stover, Stan Stan

Gelba and Dan McGuire. And running game. The running game was actually reasonable with I think Chris Warren was his name, but it's the passing game was so abhorrent at that even right ninety two had much lower offensive levels than now, but he compared to other teams at the time, they were just dismally low. Wow, Kelly Stow for Stan Gilbo Gilbo I believe went to Maryland because I'm from that part of the country. And then Dan McGuire I believe

is Mark McGuire's brother. If I recall, Yeah, they did not score more than seventeen points in a single game all season. Wow. Do you remember Cortez, Kennedy and Kenny easily? Though? That was That was quite a defense, all right. So then the other question that perhaps happily or some years much to your chagrin, I ask, is your preseason projections from before this season, how many of the twelve playoff teams did you get? Right? Aaron, We we did pretty

good this year. We got eight playoff teams right, which is about average for us. But the three of the four teams that we mistakenly had in the playoffs were the last three teams that got eliminated. Oh, there you go. And though our playoff prediction had Minnesota, our playoff prediction had Pitts for our playoff prediction had Tennessee UH, And we had Indianapolis and Kansas City seventh and eighth in the a f C, but they made it in. And we had Seattle UH seventh in the NFC and they

made it in. So the only team we really really blew it on was Chicago. So the most disappointing and the most overachieving then was it was Chicago. The most overachieving Chicago was definitely the most overachieving team this year. Although I think you have to pok Kansas City. I don't think any of us could have expected Patrick Mahomes to be what Patrick Mahomes turned into. Yeah, not quite.

What was the most disappointing team then? Based on your numbers? Oh, I mean, based on what everybody else expected, the most disappointing team was Jacksonville. Based on what we expected this year, I would say the most disappointing team was Green Pay. Oh,

that's interesting. And then Here's here's what I always love to ask you then, and you've had some great answers to this question over the year, is that have really have really manifested which is then as we project into next season, for those who enjoy making a futures bet in the NFL, even though I have long said, you know, there's not a lot of value in the futures market before a season starts, But just for those who might want to delve into that based on d v O A,

what is the team that either failed to make the playoffs? Because I guess Pittsburgh might be the obvious answer to that, I don't want to phrase it that way, but what's the team that's sort of under the radar, let's say, Aaron in the conventional in the mainstream, that is that that no one's really thinking about, they think is primed

for good for great success next year. Well, here's the tough part of that is because if I'm going to answer this question, I want a team where I trust the quarterback, and a couple of teams where our numbers say that those teams were better than their records. I don't really trust the quarterback we have Denver Thirt teams.

Despite their six and ten record, Denver had an incredible record year of playing close to really good teams, and that normally indicates improvement the following year, and you're going to get a better a head coach who's better and in game decision making next year. I would hope, right they're changing the head coach. That should help. But I don't know if I trust case Keenum enough to say Denver is my hot playoffs pick for next year. Yeah, I hear you on that. I mean that that makes

perfect sense, and then I guess you have to. I mean, I would imagine Minnesota and Pittsburgh will be right back. I mean, there's no way until you run through the numbers that you'll know we have the nine and ten. Pittsburgh was ninth this year in our number. Minnesota was tent. Another popular team that we have high we have Cleveland and they were hotter at the end of the season. I mean, I definitely am on the Cleveland bandwagon for um.

Atlanta was I think better than people realize, despite the fact that they only went seven and nine, their seventeenth in our number, and their defense is thirty feet and defense is less consistent from year to year than offense, and they had a ton of defensive injuries. There's a lot of reasons to believe that the Atlantic defense will improve next year. And so Atlanta is going to be back into the playoff punt next year, absent for the

concutive year. The Washington Redskins and Aeron's numbers once again, not your fault there, And I'm not one of those guys, and they were, they were really they We're doing pretty well in our numbers through half the season. And then I mean, you know, they got to the second quarterback and the third quarterback in the fourth quarterback, and so we don't know whether Alex Smith is going to be back next year. We don't know who the quarterback is going to be. But the defense is the same thing.

They always have a you know, an average defense, and they had an average defense to shoot so seven, they're so seven and nine. Um, we're talking to Aaron Shots at FO Underscore A Shots on Twitter. That's s c H A t Zs, the head of Football Outsiders, also an ESPN insider. Um, I'm glad you brought up the Cleveland Browns before we get to wild card weekend. I want to give you ops, Aaron, because before the season started, you came on a Numbers game and you made what

at the time seemed like an outlandish statement. Do you remember what it was? Did I say that Cleveland was going to go over? No, you would have probably said more than that. You went even further. You said it would not surprise you if the Cleveland Browns made the postseason. Now it didn't happen, but it got close enough where I think you deserve your proper respect on that, sir,

because people were laughing at thank you. What did you Numbers say about the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia was the most average team we have ever measured. It's kind of remarkable. In thirty three years, we've never measured a team that came within one percentage point of average in all three phases of the game until Philadelphia. Their total t v o A was zero point zero percent, and they were sixteen in offense, in defense, fifteen to

special teams, fifteenth in schedule strength, and sixteenths inconsistency. They literally were like the most average team we've ever measured, except that they went nine and seven instead of eight and eight, which I think you can give a little bit of credit to to Doug Peterson for his aggressive coaching to get them over that little extra win there. You know the fact that if you look over all five games that Nick Foles started, Wentz was the better

quarterback than Foles. If you only look at the last three games, then Foles was the better quarterback than Wents. But you also have to consider the first two games the season that Foles played, So I do think it's a little bit of a step down to go from Wentz to Fulls for Philadelphia. All right, Aaron, I leave you with this. If there was one team here this weekend that would be most primed for a run to the Super Bowl, which team would that be? The best

team of these teams is the Chargers. But the Chargers would have to win three games on the road. That's a little hard to do. Yeah, that's the first first kind Chargers comment all show. It's really been a Ravens theme show today. Aaron, You're the best. I appreciated man. Aaron shots at FO Underscore a s c. H. A. T Z on Twitter, Football Outsiders founder, creator and ESPN insider. Thank you, Aaron, enjoy the weekend. The great Aeron shots

for football outsiders right here on a numbers game. There were there were baseball analytics everywhere, mateo. And then one day a young Aaron shots up in New England. I believe he was in New England at the time. Uh. He was like, why isn't anybody doing this for football? And he's like, I'm gonna do it myself, and there the rest is history. And now back to your regular scheduled podcast. On my right, nearly four decades in the

business from Wager Talk, it's Marco D'Angel. Look, good morning, Marco, Hey Jiol, how are you doing today. I'm doing very well. I am on the road. I am at Borgata in Atlantic City. I don't know if you've heard this. Gambling is legalized here. That's why I'm here. We're never stopping for the megapod though. On my left also a staple of the show for all these years. Out of the sports betting diaspora, it's a what's happen? Today's all right?

Never better, brother, never better? Thanks for having me. Is this the week where the chiefs fall? Because this the week? God bless America. I don't think so, I really don't. I actually think the line should be higher I'm surprised, Uh, the dropped the way it did and actually saw some sharp money come in on Indianapolis. That was a little bit surprising the line would move the other way. I mean, Coult's been hot, um, but I thought power rating wise,

they would be a little greater favorite. I mean, look at that numbers five real quickly. It's five right now. Yeah, you don't have to don't feel the advantage. And it looks low. Alright, alright, looks low. You don't have to do your whole dissertation now. We'll find out more about that coming up. And our guests today returning today. I did, I did, but you know how the intro works. Have you been here before? For God's six? I love you, bro and the guests though the show today returning I

think only our second return guest this year. He is a serial contest winner in Las Vegas eleven let Me run him down Real Quick Dollar Win Eliminator Contest, the Palms Contest in twenty sixteen Stations Casinos Last and Standing College Football Contest, and flirted with the title over at Stations this year as well in the NFL contest It's Our Friend Las Vegas. Chris what's happening to Chris? Oh, good morning everybody. Yeah, there was a sad last day

of the year loss. We made it down to the final weekend and lost on the final game by half a point. Oh, you were down to the last three, right, you were one of the last three. Yeah. The Washington botched extra point on Thanksgiving Day excluded us from winning. The whole thing said not to mention a non targeting flag not made, a non p I not made. Don't get me started on that game. That was brutal. Thanks Washington,

different times. Yeah, that's the one I'm talking about. Yeah, okay, well, gentlemen, Division Round, National Football League. Great games will break them all down. ACE already got a head start on the Colts and Chiefs. Let's start there. That's the first one in chronological order, Colts at Chiefs. The Colts coming off the most dominant win of wild card week, that's for sure. Score any one points in the first half against the Texans,

just sort of coasted it out after that point. Andrew Luck two twenty two yards to touchdowns in that game against the Texans. He actually got a hundred ninety one of them, and both touchdowns before halftime. Colts built the twenty one and nothing lead and coasted, as I said, to victory. So they opened the season, Colts did one

in five. Now they've won five in a row, ten out of eleven, and they traveled to the Chiefs, the Chiefs who are a f C West Champions number one seed in the entire a f C. Right now, as we look at this across the board, Chief's a consensus five and a half point favorite. In this ballgame has always be starting with a guest, Chris, your thoughts, sir, Well, you know, uh eight actually uh reversed his course from earlier to the last time I was on the show.

We were in opposing views on Kansas City and and uh, humorously enough, we're gonna be on opposite side this time. I was really high on Casey through most of the season. But I think, uh, since they lost uh Lamar. What's that guy's name again, A Kaream the the guy. Yeah, since they lost him, that whole team is not produced offensively with the same efficiency. And efficiency, sir, they scored twenty five points or more in every game of the season.

I think that's the first time ever. And uh, but I just see a little bit of a little bit of the wheels coming off the bus with Kansas City. As you mentioned, Indianapolis is one ten out of eleven and seven, three and one against the spread. UH. There two or no straight up in a UH against the spread as the dog. They were only an underdog twice even with that horrible start. But you know, one of the reasons for that is they actually faced one of

the worst schedules UH in the league. Over a recent periods SOU they've really put up some great stats, a lot of winning weeks. I'm a little bit nervous with Indianapolis to because they played such a pathetic schedule late in the year. UM, but they've really showed up against Houston. Houston had a really strong d and they handled them pretty well. They are on a roll. Luck has the experience. And now we're in a situation where we've got another

rookie quarterback entering the playoffs. And here's a really really interesting statu I wasn't aware of. The last twenty rookie quarterbacks they have started a playoff game are four and sixteen against the spread and even in in seven and thirteen. Overall, for the few extras that were favorite won the game. Uh, you know, Kansas Cities defense is really soft. We don't have to go into that. Uh. Indianapolis is running the

ball very well. They've put up five hundred and sixty or five hundred and eighty yards over the last two games, so they have a really balanced attack. I think it's it's good to really leave a lot of openings for Indianapolis. Uh, it's a very least to stay within, you know, a backdoor cover sort of situation. I'm kind of surprised the lines blow six. Also, I haven't met this game yet. I'm hoping that it gets propped up a little bit. Uh, but I probably will play the plus six in this

game when we get it. Yeah, And what Chris is saying about Patrick Mahomes, he is the only rookie quarterback that we'll be playing, or rookie quarterback. He's the only guy that's never had a playoff game under his belt that's playing this weekend. I should say, even Jared Golf, although it ended terribly for the Rams. Terrible performance by the Rams last year, even Jared Golf has played in one.

I liked Marco the group of games from a betting perspective better last week quite frankly, but this is the one where I have the most conviction and it is on the Colts. How about you, Well, I look at this one, and you know, obviously it's it's hard not to like the Colts the way they're playing, But there are a couple of negatives that you've got to take into consideration here, and it's gonna end up having me

playing the total is my stronger play. Uh. This is gonna be the third straight road game for Indianapolis, and we know how tough that is to our in regular season. Now you know we move it into the playoffs, everything is more intensified with the playoffs. That's the biggest concern that I have going in here. And unfortunately for them, if you want to lug the miles travel, this is not one of those East coast West coast type deals.

There are three road games. Traveling from Indianapolis is Tennessee,

Houston in Kansas City. So if you could have three road games, this is probably mileedgewise the shortest distance you could have for three road games for them, what I am going to look at and if you remember on last week's podcast, skill I went with the under in the Indianapolis UM Houston game, and you look at those two teams and you think Andrew Luck, you think of Deshaun Watson, and automatically you think about the over Um.

The Colts defense had been playing well, but that was a you know, a division foe that they were meeting for the third time. You know, when you play somebody you know twice every year and then now you hook up a third time in a playoff game, you know everybody's strengths and weaknesses, and I think it's easier to prepare the game plan. Uh, you can take away what the other team does best with that being so familiar

with each other. That's not the case this week. Uh. The Kansas City defense, you know, we don't have to talk about how bad they've been all year. I mean this is from start to finish. Uh, this defense hasn't been able to stop anybody. Uh, they just outscore everybody in Indianapolis, as Chris said, has played a rather soft schedule. Uh, so I think that part's gonna catch up with their defense, which is overachieved this year. That's the biggest surprise to me.

We didn't know what Andrew Luck was gonna do coming back off the injury from last year, but we knew what he was capable of. Nobody saw this defense playing as good as it did for Indianapolis, and I think that changes this week. And finally, if you go back to last year, if anything, I think Andrew or Andy Reid is gonna learned uh a lesson from last year. No leads ever enough, and especially with the defense that he has this year, he'll keep his foot on the gas.

I think throughout the ball game because he knows Andrew luck is capable of coming from behind with that set, and with last week's game being a low scoring game, gives us a little bit of value here with the number, I'm gonna go ahead and take over. And I know that you know sounds square Kansas City game. Let's take it over, But that to me presents the most value. If I I do lean to the Colts, I will be honest, they lean to the Colts, but it's weak.

Probably where I'll be more involved with the Colts is I know it's not the proper number mathematically to tease, but if it's over the four and a half, and I can use a six point teaser and get it to double digits, get it to the ten and a half. That would be still think some value in this particular matchup, but I think the over is the better play. Someone I know will be teasing Indianapolis Marcot. That will be me. That will be me for sure. Um, Marlon Mackott should

be mentioned. A huge game against the Texans, carries a hundred forty yards a touchdown. All right, Ace, I'm sorry you jump the gun earlier. Now you get to speak about the Chiefs. Go ahead, Yeah, no problem at all. I haven't been again this weekend. So far, I haven't bet anything, and closer as the game day. I said that last week. The guys I've been working with the last couple of years, they've been taking some of their biggest positions the day before in the day of the

game with good success. Um. I think it's because some of these lines get knocked out of whack once the public gets involved, and let's face it, most of their money comes in on game day. With that said, this is the game. I thought the line was a little bit short. And what I mean by that is, granted, Kansas City has not played their best ball down the stretch, losing two of their last three games. Um, but They've

been a big favorite when they've played at home. I mean they were two touchdown favored against Oakland, they were a touchdown favorite against Baltimore. I just thought it would come out a little bit higher. Um. With that said, I could tell you what certainty their sharp money on to Indianapolis that picked up that plus six UM, and that has me thinking, you know, there may be some value on that momentum as far as the total goes. With Marco touched on, I think he may be right.

And you look at Indianapolis. UM, they haven't had high totals over the last six games. They haven't had any in the fifties. Even so with a total this high, I don't think it's just the Kansas City signed that's expected to do some scoring. And we know that defense gives up points. So as long as Indianapolis does their part, um, I don't think anyone's gonna keep Kansas City off the scoreboard. UM. And again listen, uh we joke about how I feel about Kansas City, and my my simple note is this,

I think they're extremely overrated, over valued. Obviously, they're a good football team. You don't win eleven games twelve games in the NFL and not have a good football team. Um. But like I said, I thought their schedule with soft, I thought they're built for the regular season. Um, And I don't think they're a playoff type of football team. And then a couple that with history of just not being able to get the job done, um when it matters.

I mean, listen, they won the turnover battle against the Chargers at home plus two and turnovers and still managed to lose one of their most important games. I mean, every time they stepped up and there was any pressure, they lost. And when they played the Rams in that Big Markey the game of the year pretty much as far as primetime games go, turn the ball over five times. So I mean, when the pressure is on, this team

just hasn't delivered. So for me, I guess I understand why the Indianapolis money is coming in, especially since this is a team that has delivered when it matters. And Andrew looks the guy I want what the football. So I have not bet this game. I can confirm it's sharp money that took that plus six on Indianapolis Colts,

and I can't disagree. But the only thing I can add is I don't think there's any line value on the Indianapolis Colts, I think power rating wise, Um, we're looking at a number that's based more on recency bias than anything else. Um, if this game was played in week eight week ten, what would Kansas City be? And I you know, they're different teams than they were in

week ten. I get that. But as professionals were supposed to not overreact, you know what I mean, We're supposed to not have kne jerk reactions and not remember what we just saw last. So if you look at the whole body of work, it looks like a little short spread for me. So even though I agree with the Indianapolist side, I don't think there's any line value there,

and that's why I haven't bet the game. A few things here, just to wrap up the conversation on this, Andy Reid certainly something's got to give the playoff woes uh And as Marco said, we don't have to look even past Las next year to UH see another bad Andy Reid playoff loss. But Andy Reid off of Bye quite quite good. So here he's got the extra rest twenty and four straight up lifetime with an extra week

rest sixteen and eight against the spread. The other thing we talked about, all your home road splits have never been as stark as they have been this year in the NFL. And the Chiefs are seven and one straight up. Now we're talking at home on the season. Of course, they're giving five and a half in this case, but keep in mind those home road splits, which brings us to home road splits in this next game. Oh oh, one more thing on that last game. Just a PostScript

on the Houston Texans if I could. I love DeShawn Watson, and I'm not saying this hot take after the fact, but I was tweeting it while it was happening when they were down fourteen nothing and twenty one and nothing, and Deshaun Watson was doing all those historyonics with the first down signals and stuff that is such a bad look in that game like that was embarrassing. And he was throwing Donovan McNabb like warm burners the entire game long. So I don't know what the story was with that team.

I know DeAndre Hopkins got hurt midway through. Certainly was a bad look forward to Shaun and the Texans all the way around in that game. As far as the home road splits in this next one, Dallas at the Rams. That's the second game on Saturday, Dallas coming off win over the Seahawks, talk about another team doing bad things. Seahawks play calling in that game against the Cowboys very questionable, very successful in the passing game, not so much in

the running game. I get it that you game plan that way because you're a successful running team all season long and that's who you are. But really very little adjustment headed into the second half on the Seahawks part. Cowboys hold on for dear life after the worst on side kicking history to twenty two. That number folds right in that spot where honestly, everybody should have made money. Everybody should have made money on that game. But lesson and getting the best of the number. And then it's

the Rams. Rams seven and one at home. This year's straight up thirteen and three, number two seed in the National Football Conference. Rams seven point favorites. This is the one game where it has stood at seven the whole way through. Probably gonna stay at seven, although it's seven with that extra juice right now. Consensus total in this one is forty nine and a half. Previous game Indianapolis in the Chiefs was fifty seven. Case we failed to

mention that. Think about the contrast between the totals this week and last week, where we have the three games that were right about forty one and forty two, So this one's forty nine and a half. Marco, do the Cowboys have a puncher's chance here? And did they catch a major break that the Eagles won? And uh, instead of having to go to New Orleans, Dallas gets to go to l A here. Oh, obviously they catch the break as far as not having to go to the New Orleans vote and face them. We saw that the

Rams weren't quite the same team. Um, you know over the last month of the season. You have the last two weeks, they blew out the Arizona and San Francisco, but they could have just slept walk through those games. In one and the San Francisco game they put up you know, they gave up thirty two points to the forty nine ers. Um, you talked about Dallas last week and uh, everybody should have won that game. Well, you know, I was one of the ones that fell right in

the middle. I I was there at the two, so I pushed and I was on the Cowboys side. And I was not a half camper with that game at all. And that is probably you know you talk about you know, bounces of the ball and you know luck and turnovers. That game, the point spread was decided by a hamstring. Okay, let's let's let's just be honest about it. Uh, Seattle

doesn't cover that game. If they have any uh you know, have a field goal kicker that they can kick the extra points, and it's gonna prove to be even more costly for me. Uh. Was in a contest to Mark Lawrences. And I know you've had Marked on the show, you know a few times, the Wise Guy contest. I I cost myself. I believe it was second place in that one. Uh, because they used they set number and when the contest plays were entered, the line was two and a half

on Dallas with that one. And uh, it's gonna cost me a little bit of money there. But for this game, guy, Um, I like the Dallas side. But as we go through these four games, this will probably be the weakest of the four. And it's because if they do fall behind, I'm still not sold on Dak Prescott. He's played well, he made some good throws in that Seattle game. Um, he pressed me with some of the throws that he did make. But this is a team that now they've got to go out on the road. The Rams have

had the extra week off to regroup. Uh Todd Gurley. They rested him the last couple of weeks to get him, you know, to a hundred percent, and they're gonna need him a lot because we all talked about at numerous times the Rams offense just didn't seem the same after they lost Uh, Cooper Cup. That is Jared Goss's security blanket. He was the leading receiver whenever a play was breaking down. That's the guy he looked to and bailed him out. And that's gonna be the question mark in this game.

From a fundamental stand I'm gonna go old school and say you give me the better team or the better defense getting points. That's where I'm gonna line up at. But I'll be honest with you, and I know, Gil I played this game with you a couple of times

this year. If your life depended on it and you've were given one teaser to save your soul, here, do you feel more comfortable with using the you know, the six point teaser and going and let's hell, let's be let's give you the full seven if you want, do you want to go to fourteen with Dallas or do you want to go to pick with the Rams. It's a great question, But if your life depended on it, I think you take the Rams. And that's my exactly and that is my only concern because this could get ugly.

But I have the lead to the Cowboys. I think they will be able to run the football. Fundamentally, You've got a great running team going against the worst team it's stopping the run in the NFL, and when you think of who they got up front, it is mind

boggling that they're so bad. I think that some of that is a little bit misleading that in earlier in the season they had such big leads in games that when teams were running the football, you totally catch them by surprising it catches and inflates the yards per carry some because you know you're gonna give up those yards on the ground when you're winning by three touchdowns. But I still think Dallas is gonna be able to move

the ball enough, and their defense is played uh really well. Uh. Over the last half of the season, and that's a direct result, as we talked last week, how Amari Cooper has made this team better on both sides of the football. Small lean to Dallas, this is my weakest of the four, weakest of the four. You know, Chris might know this. I don't know if you guys know this. Uh. Pinnacle tinny uh teaser protection on the Rams and the Saints.

So if you tried teasing the Rams and the Saints, they'll only let you tease down the favorites to three, but the but the on the reverse side, they make up for the difference, right, so you could get the

dogs for greater than the amount teas. So in other words, if it's a six point tease, they'll only let you tease down the favorites to three, but the discrepancy what they left out they'll give you on the dog side, you'll so you'll end up getting the dogs for like plus sixteen, roughly speaking, if you understand what I'm saying. So they stagger that for teaser protection purposes, the offshore way to do that at Pinnacle, Well, they have to

start doing something about teasers in the playoffs. The books are just getting murdered on those so the Pinnacle isn't the same company. That's a whole. You know, another discussion to be had, right, you know, with with owners of policies. They're changing every single facet of any value that they used to offer across the board of every bet and wager that they accept across every sport. So they're they're no longer the the the huge value place to be

found off shore. Yeah, and I would say the Pinnacle lean is not what it once was either. Well of course, because and it's much easier. They've lowered their limits significantly, so it's much easier to uh TO to smooth those lines for much less money. I tweeted out the middle of the season, I've bet a n C double a football game on a late Thursday afternoon for a thousand dollars and moved at the five or six cents. I

couldn't believe it. And then the other thing that people are using with these money lines, with these Pinnacle lines is there are so many offshore books that automatically follow Pinnacle. It's worth it for people to move Pinnacle the wrong direction so that they can get down huge money at the off screen shops. The mirror pinnacles so a lot of manipulation, a lot of manipulation Ace Dallas at the Rams. If you stretch this back now to New England Atlanta,

the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Falcons. So when the Patriots came roaring back against the Falcons down three in that Super Bowl, not only one the game, but had the nerve to cover that game as a favorite. As we all so vivid recall, since that time, it has been the revenge of the underdogs of the NFL playoffs.

So he extended back to just after that game, fourteen and one against the spread run for underdogs, uh, including four and oh last week the only underdog not to cover in that stretch last year and this year, uh, the Titans against the Patriots in this divisional round. How do you feel about the Cowboys and the Rams? Will

the dog bark here? Real quickly? I just wanted to add on top of what Chris said, and he has on point, and I think nothing is more important than that fact because in today's handicap and world, there's so much talk about line moves, reverse line moves, steam, the sharp side, the hot game, all that nonsense. UM, and I can tell you from experience and I touched on it on the podcast over and over any on screen account, I get I hand off, and I said, I don't even want a piece of it. I don't even take

a percentage of it. I don't even want a three roll because I don't want to work off built on that hunt, because I know it's used to manipulate the market and nothing else. So you've got to be so careful in today's world trying to pick off. If that's your approach, you know, to piggyback the sharp side, good luck with it if you don't have a source that actually is moving the stuff. Um, and as it high

up on that food chain as well. UM. Now in this round, you have to remember, um, we talked about it last week, and you always bring out the status pick the winner, forget the spread. Um. You know last week the wild card round it's close to nine at a ten times the spread don't even matter in the playoffs. This divisional round is actually the lowest correlation two point

spread and winner. It's down the seventy eight percent. I think you go back fifteen plus years, so this is the one lowest round and then in the conference finals it goes back up again. And the super Bowl goes back down again. UM, so the spread does kind of matter in this round if it doesn't any UM. With that said, I think this line short as well. And I'm not one to look at a favorite immediate. And again, I worry as as far as the Rams because I didn't like when what I saw when they played a

team like Chicago or even losing the Philadelphia the week after. Um, you know, and and they beat up Arizona and Detroit's in San Francisco is not all that impressive. UM, And Dallas has been playing good down the stretch. But I just think that this Rams team is just just way better than as simple as I could put it in Dallas. And as good as Dallas has been getting back to

that run, it only works if you're not behind. I mean, if they fall behind to the Rams, I don't care how bad the Rams rush defense is, you're not gonna have to, you know, utilize it much. And Dallas is gonna be forced that to come from behind, and that's a position I don't think they'll have success in. That's why I look at this game as as one that

could get out of hand. You know that that could be a easy double digit, you know, sixteen seventeen point when where the teams on the Dallas sign doesn't even help you, So save your money. Um. Again, I'm not one to really jump all over the favorites, but you look at Dallas. They only have a plus fifteen point differential for the season, you know, compared to the Rams plus one forty three. I mean there's just two different football teams. Um. The RAM has been doing it all

season and Dallas has done it down the stretch. And you look, they've done great over the last eight games. They've only lost one, the shutout to Indianapolis. Um. But they were playing at home. I mean they had Washington at home, the Saints at home, Philly at home, Tampa at home. UM, Seattle in that playoff game at home. Now they got to go on the road, man, and I just don't think they're gonna have much success at all. Um. I like the Rams in this spot. I think that's

the safest teaser as far as it looks square. But I don't think you could look at it any other way. There's no sense and teasing it up. It's either tease it down or leave it alone. UM. I haven't bet this game. But for me, it's Rams or nothing at all. I I don't see anything to make me want to take the Dallas Cowboys. And again I had him last week. I gave him. I bet the money line. Um, I wasn't gonna lay the two or whatever was one and a half. So for me, I don't think they're going

to carry that over. I like the Lambs minus seven here. I haven't bet it, like I said, but it's the only sign I could look at Zeke for the Cowboys last week, Cauze feel Eliott twenty six carries a hundred thirty seven yards and the go ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter before Dallas had to hold on to that one.

I will say this to me. The difference in this NFL season and any other one that I can remember is that every one of the supposed marquee teams, the Chiefs, the Rams, the Saints, they're all flawed and we've all seen them, especially in the case of the Rams and the Saints, just have really bad performances where you're like where you're like wow, Like I thought these guys were supposed to be good. But in the end, if the Rams can't dispatch the Cowboys at home. What are we

talking about? Yeah, Like, so this is Sean McVey versus the Clapper, right, Like, if the Cowboys win this game, everything we thought we knew about that the Clapper and Sean McVeigh will be completely turned on its head. Well yeah, I think the crowd is going to have an effect

on Los Angeles hustle. Uh. From what I understand, Dallas spent years training in in the Los Angeles area and has one of their largest crowd bases in that area, especially with the Los Angeles being without a team for years. But the ticket demand is way up after Dallas was announced, and the crowd could be almost fifty fifty. And if that can inspire the Rams to play with a chip on their shoulder, I don't know what can. Uh. Marco

really hit on a lot of great points. With the Rams being a completely different team with Cooper out, they just don't have that same spark. But they're facing Dallas. Dallas six and thirteen the last nineteen times they played a winning team. Uh. The Rams at home play much differently than they do on the road. Also, golf is there's twenty two touchdowns versus three interception. He's much more comfortable playing there. The Rams defense is doing it their

plus eleven on turnovers, they're forcing fumbles. Uh. And if they don't have the best special teams in the league, uh, it's certainly one of the best special teams in the league. So UH, there's certainly no My numbers say that I should be laying at seven. I really wish it would have gone down to six and a half and and people have been drinking the Dallas kool aid to bring it under the seven. I think certainly we're never going to see that. Uh. So I haven't bet the game.

I'll probably have the Rams and a teaser probably will bet the Rams. Uh. And that's where I stand on that. But it's it's it's it's it's the weakest of the four games. All right, let's go to Sunday, Chargers at New England. This to me is maybe the most interesting of all the games. Lamar Jackson sack seven times by

the Chargers last week. The Chargers, even when they were up at Baltimore, even when they were up twenty three to three, there was this feeling for those of us who had the Chargers and who have Chargers futures, were like, Wow, this is a kind of stroll kind of game, like I almost felt like, and I think I even tweeted at the time, Chargers were like, here, go ahead, take the game, Ravens, and the Ravens just couldn't do it. Uh,

they didn't have it. Lamar Jackson was two for eight at halftime for seventeen yards and a pick, a zero point zero quarterback rating, and the Chargers led twelve to nothing on the strength of four field goals at halftime. By the way, if you had said before the game, hey, one of these two kickers, uh, Justin Tucker and uh Michael Badsley's gonna have five field goals, you know what,

would the odds have been on it being Basley. But the Chargers then end up holding on for dear life, right because the Ravens go nuts at the end and the Ravens actually have the ball with the chance to win it at the end. When I was watching that, it was kind of surreal, like it happened so fast. It was like, this can't be happening, Like I couldn't process it. That said, it's not all Lamar Jackson's fault.

The Ravens offensive line just got murdered by the Chargers defensive line, New England their four point if it's now this opened a little higher, it's down to four ACE. We start with you the totals at forty six and a half. You've been talking about how you're surprised that the spreads on the Saturday games. Were you surprised that this is this low? Yeah, but honestly, power rating wise, I kind of made it four, Like I I, what

can you really make it? Um? Just because of how San Diego is playing, you know, and and the road record. You got a factor into the team that's won nine out of ten games on the road. UM. So I wasn't all that shocked. And it is a New England team that looks vulnerable this season, and at least from the early public money. And again it is so little a bit has come in. But I looked at the back end of a book I have access to before coming on we're doing the podcast, um, and it's Charger money.

I mean parlay's that were tied in from like NBA from earlier in the week that that is live that they wont is pending on the Chargers. So that's usually like a pre like, uh, what's gonna come it's all he's a preview. Whenever I see that stuff early in the week, usually come game day, that's the side that's one sided. And I'm not gonna be surprised if the money does come in on the Chargers, and personally I disagree. Um for me, this is New England blindly or leave

the game alone. Uh. And here's the reason why. Uh. In the last fifteen years, fourteen of the last fifteen a f C champions have been named Brady, Roethlisberger or Manning. Roethlisberger ain't around, Manning isn't around, and there's only one guy left standing and that's Tom Brady. So unless until New England is ousted from the playoffs, Um, they're the team I'm looking at. And I have a little bias. I have a future on New England. I give it.

I bet an NFC team, in an NFC team, and New England was my a f C team simply because they've been always favored to win the Super Bowl. Remember like last year or the year before, they went down like a two to one before the season and the fact I was able to find six and a half or seven to one at one spot. Um, I just saw that was just way too much value to pass up. And this is the game that I have a future on im Like the next one we're gonna talk about that,

I'm not hedging. Um, I'm not taking the Chargers plus four to hedge any of that. Bet Um. I don't like the Chargers in this spot at all. Um, I think this is New England's game. I get a Charge has been playing great on the road, but now you're looking at three straight road games. Um, as a team that was putting must win situations, you know when you're in that over and over and a couple of that, which is turning the ball over too much for my liking.

I mean, here's a team that's got ten turnovers over the last four games. Granted they won three or four of them and more importantly covered three or four of them, but how hard long can you maintain that before there's that regression and you're gonna run into a New England team that knows how to take advantage of turnovers. Um. So for me, I mean, just match up everything to me, says New England. Um. Again, I've been on that tail end on the other side without even wanting to, because

I do take percentage of the accounts. And we all know how the betting ston to gets light going against New England during the regular season because it's always so called inflated UM. But this is one of those spots that I don't care what I see in any accounts. For me, I'm not hedging it. I like New England here, um. They think they should win this game by two touchdowns, I really do. I'm gonna get some quick information as far as the total. I have a difference of opinion.

One of the the guys I respect the most that actually moves lines when he fires bet the on their first half and it went twenty three and a half down to twenty two and a half UM. But then you're seeing this total for the game line coming back up, and that is uh, bettingson to get money the accounts they've just bet the over forty six forty six and a half's or whatever um in there, and that's why you're looking at forty seven's probably forty seven and a

half this morning, totals going back up. So just putting that out there, there's a difference in opinion. One likes un during the first half, other truth likes over in the game. But I like the New England minus four. I think you could please or this one in laid double digits. Oh, going pleaser. By the way, Christie Andrews, inventor of the term pleaser, He's sorry that he never

copyrighted it. Uh, the Chargers, I guess I'm contractually obligated to mention because everybody else is that the Chargers are o N seven lifetime against Tom Brady and the Patriots, including the playoffs since Philip Rivers became the starter in two thousand six. By the way, last thing about Lamar Jackson, because I just wanna I want to defend him a little bit. His center, his snapper, what the hell was that?

Like the balls were going over his head. He was also whipping in some m that Lamar Jackson couldn't handle. That didn't help Lamar Jackson's cause last week either, Chris, Where was I going with this game? Oh? I was mentioning last game McVey versus the Clapper. Well, some people would say it's Bill Belichick versus Anthony Lynd. Do you really want to put your money on Anthony Lynn? And do you really want to go against Bill Belichick? No one has ever gone to the rich House betting against

Bill Belichick. How do you feel about this game here? Well, I was actually looking forward to betting New England until I examined my spreadsheet and I was I had really wasn't a huge Charger back for the entire season. They have such a history of special teams uh sabotaging their success. And when you really look at the Chargers, they've solved these problems. They're they're atrocious kicking game, believe it or not.

The guys made forty seven, not of fifty kids. Uh they have uh, they their defense, their special teams are actually one of the better special teams now in the league. And it's a complete reversal of fortunate and that's their difference for this team. You know, all the horrible losses were you know, in years past, seemed to be for

nonsense mistakes with special teams in one way or another. Uh. You know, if you replace, if you were just betting these teams on stats and results, and you took all the names and the coaches out of the equation, the Patriots wouldn't be favored in this game. I I've read a lot of people that that that have the Chargers actually, you know, one one and a half point favorites. I have it more of a pick them, but there I

think that there's an acidine amount of value in this game. Uh, even though my head wants to bet New England for all the reasons they said, Uh, you know, it's a more you know a lot of people are gonna have that show me attitude. But Uh, I would have liked to have been getting more than uh four points. Uh it's the only game I bet so far plus four

and a half. I really look at the Chargers, Uh, having an eight teen game road schedule this year so far, their home advantage is next to nothing, which you know, really, you know, it's probably helpful to the Charges that they can just stay more focused a lot, you know, from game to game to game to game. Uh, New England

is so banged up, uh and so average. You know, just shocking to me that we're getting points in this game with what the Chargers have done on the field statistically and what you can see with your eyes and that, and that Baltimore team was no slouch. And uh, I was very surprised to see how well they did against Baltimore, even though Baltimore you know, shot themselves in the foot, you still have to do it. You still have to perform on the road, and Uh, they're impressive. I think

there's value with the Chargers. They're impressive. I am in the tank for them with futures to win the a f C. Primarily, I'm all about the Charges. Baltimore, by the way, finished with ninety yards rushing in that game, after averaging two twenty nine point six with Jackson at

the helm during the regular season. I think you put it perfectly, Chris, which is this is there's not a better example of the historical uh feeling you have about the New England Patriots and the historical feeling you have about the Chargers and then being able to sort of get your brain to throw that to the side and think about what is actually the case if you take off the names as as you put it off the uniforms Chargers, remember if they don't give up that game

to the Broncos with that ridiculous play call where they passed the ball right underneath the two minute warning and in effect the incomplete pass gave the Broncos like four or five extra plays. Uh, just a ridiculously stupid move. It's the Chargers who are the number one seed in the a f C. If that doesn't happen. Uh. And I asked Marco asked Michael Lombardi on a Numbers game

on visa this week. You know, we were going through all these games and he was saying things about the charges like he doesn't know if Philip Rivers is okay, he just doesn't trust Anthony Lynn, the charges of historical all the things that that we've been touching upon. And in the end in which I'll ask you guys this at the end of the show, I asked him, Okay, so if you had to pick one dog here that wins the game out right, He's like, oh, yeah, Chargers.

You know he threw that all aside and he was like, ok, clearly it's the Chargers. Yeah, well, I'm gonna look at the Chargers. And we talked about situations as far as scheduling goes, and you know, Ace pointed out that this will be their third road game in a row. It's

actually gonna be there fourth in five weeks. And unlike when I talked about the Indianapolis game and with the travel, uh, this is putting the mileage on They're going from l A to Baltimore back to l a back out you know, to play in New England, so you couldn't really log any more miles than they are during this streak. Uh that they're playing um not to mention, not to mention, if I might jump in, I'm sorry not to mention that.

How how much of a shaft have the Chargers gotten by not only having to travel but playing the early Sunday game on the East Coast two weeks in a row, Like that's unprecedented that they got the shaft on that. I'm sorry, go ahead now, I agree with you. That's another great point about it. But you look at the Chargers and I look at New England, and you know, we don't have to talk about the history, and you know, just blindly betting the Patriots at home the last three seasons,

you're twenty and eight against the spread. You know, that's that's nothing to sneeze at. But let's be realistic. New England one of the softest schedules in the NFL this year, just because of the division they reside in. When you get to play the Jets twice, you get to play Buffalo twice, once with a rookie quarterback and once without and if you remember, the game without was the game that they signed Derek Anderson off the street to come in and fill and play the Monday night game. I

mean it's ridiculous, Um, you know. And then Miami wasn't anything special this year. So you look at New England, they lose Josh Gordon, and I think this is gonna be moving forward. Actually one of the bigger hits for them because it takes away that deep threat that they didn't have all year. I mean, he was becoming a go to guy for Brady and this looked like you know, prior to this last indiscretion, you know, Bill Belichick does

it again. He pulls somebody off the you know, the trash heap that's been a problem child everywhere and made him a productive player. And then what happens. You know, he has the relapse. So I think that's gonna hurt. Gronk has not been Gronk all year long. He's got what three touchdowns this year? Um, you look at him in you know the last few games. Uh, he doesn't have that explosiveness anymore. Uh. The guys beat up um to rely on him to take over a game like

he used to I can't do. Um. A lot of people are gonna look, I think the public perception from last week's game and say, you know, the Chargers, as much as they dominated, as you said, they never really pulled away from Baltimore, settling for the four field goals at the beginning of the game, which Anthony Lynn. For God's sake, when why do these coaches continue when they're inside the you know, the two yard line? Dude, we gotta run the on both tight formation all the time.

Let's just put all twenty two people right altogether, and let's just see what happens spread the goddamn field. That drives me nuts more than anything else watching a football game. And it took them seven attempts because remember they got stopped three, picked the field goal, then later in the game got stopped three and finally even went on fourth down before they got it into the end zone. So seven attempts before they got the ball into the end zone. UM,

change the plays, boys. But this week I think that you'll see more of a wide open game. And last week the game, we talked about how a game opens up and how it develops. And once you saw that Lamar Jackson was a deer cotton headlights last week. The Chargers really never had to push, you know, the gas pedal. They didn't have to force the issue because Baltimore wasn't gonna do anything. And for anybody uh watching the game, we kill you're you know, you're a Washington fan, but

Baltimore's you know that your next door neighbor. There. Were you expecting Flacco at any point? Well, I asked at the beginning, I think late in the first half on Twitter, I was like, all right, truth serum, if you're a Raven's better right now or a Ravens fan, do you want Flacco in? And most people at that moment wanted Flacco because they're gonna get back your one game thing. If you want to win one game, which one of

those guys that you want. I don't know that Flacco would have had better success quite because I think their offensive line was getting crushed. But I think it's a worthwhile question anyway, Yeah, and it's I thought they should have come to Flacco. And then when they didn't bring him out in the third quarter and then after the first two drives were more of the same for Jackson and they didn't bring him in. Then it dawned on me and then I figured it out, and then when

I heard the postgame interview, it confirmed it for me. Obviously, we know Flacco is not going to be there next year. That that was clear with harbas comments wishing him luck and everything else. But that became money, and I don't think the organization and that's sad that you would risk a playoff game for it, but I don't think they wanted to risk him getting hurt on their paycheck because they have one one year left on that contract. That's right.

That's the Robert Griffin thing, the reason the Redskins didn't play him his last years because they would have been on the hook for what of the nineteen million dollars if he gets hurt. That's the one thing that guarantees a player's contract is an injury like that. By the way, it's a whole another story. That's the reason why the Jaguars in essence had to stick with or decided to

stick with Blake Bortles. That's a whole another story because like a risk, injury never really improved, so they were an effect on the hook for him for one year, so they figured out, let's assign him to a three year deal, which effectively is a two year deal. But if that injury doesn't happen, they probably don't have Blake Bortles as long as you're right, So I think you're right about Flacco. The other thing about that is Lamar

Jackson effectively saved John Harbaugh's job for him. So that was another thing we were talking about, is like, does he really is he really gonna Poulamar Jackson after that guy single handedly saved his job in Baltimore? Should be a great game Chargers and the Patriots go ahead. I'm sorry, yeah, So for with that said, I think the Chargers are the better team. This is the best team Philip Rivers has had and and I can remember if any of the playoff teams that he's taken, I like them. Here,

you look at this game going into New England. Remember these two teams played last year and it was an eight point victory by the Patriots. But that was the game that if you watch that game, the Chargers were in it from start to finish and they just couldn't get that one play to get over the hump. And of course, you know Belichick and Brady, everything falls into place as he usually does. You can't tell me if

you just compare from last year to this year. The Chargers are a much better team than they were last year, and New England has definitely taken a step backwards, so that gap is closed. I will be on the Chargers. I'm even gonna be a little on the over in this game, and then you'll go for the three headed monster, get me over ten points. I'm also going to be there with something you know, I'll be there on the teaser side of things. I um, I said it before,

I said again. I think the the Chargers Colts five six combination is the best five six we've ever seen in any playoff bracket since they've gone to this format. I mean, they are live to get into the a f C Championship. Could you imagine, by the way, the Chargers got a home game. By the way, it's not called stub Hub anymore. If they get a home game, we're gonna learn a new stadium name, some new spots.

It's not even Stubbub anymore. So we'll see if that happens, if those two teams are able to win out right before we get to the final game, a reminder, as always that the show. The support for the show today comes from Bookmaker dot EU. Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years, pro players consider them a must. Yes, they do, because the first to post odds take the highest limits and pride themselves on never

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I'm serious, like I love Bookmaker that much. As I mentioned, I'm betting on replays for God's sakes, uh and all kinds of things. It is so reliable and I stand by them. Bookmaker, proud sponsor of this podcast. Alright, guys, final game. It's New Orleans hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Nick Foles Magic

Carpet Ride continues. Last week in Chicago, Cody Parky all off the upright off the crossbar Eagles hold on for a dramatic sixteen fift win after tying it up on a fourth and goal from the one folds to Tate with just under a minute left um but the Bears gotten field goal position. Parky I knew as soon as he kicked that through the uprights on the icing one where Doug Peterson called time out. I knew when Parky sunk that. I was like, Oh, no, he's gonna miss.

He's gonna mix the next one. There's no question. Foles now is seven and oh straight up in elimination games. So three and oh in the playoffs last year in the Super Bowl, as we also famously know, and then this year four and oh now three and o in the regular season Rams Texans Redskins to close out the season, and then last week against the Bears. Is this where

it ends? Chris, We start with you. The Saints eight point favorites totals fifty and a half folds is relatively pedestrian at sevent t d s five picks, so he's kind of coming down to earth a little bit um facing breeze at home was twenty two and one. So this I made a mistake. This is actually my weakest game of the week. And I didn't do a lot of preparation on this game, just because there was just

so much skewed data. Everybody's making a big deal of this forty eight to seven win earlier in the season, but you know, Philly was an entirely different team at that point. Uh. They were extremely banged up, They had a different quarterback Sprowls. I don't think played. I think the center got injured. You know, it was just a debacle of a comedy of errors, and you have to

kind of cast that aside. My numbers have this as New Orleans supposed to be about nine and a half to ten, so I don't see a lot of value there and they never never land area. Uh. I'll definitely consider teasing this game. I don't think I'm gonna have a play on this team unless of miraculous it gets down to a seven. Uh, And I kind of think that the over and and I don't know the worst

totals guy ever, so probably should take the under. But I kind of think the over might be something to look at because there's a little bit of value with the low scoring game. Philadelphia is off off of with the Bears, but it's going indoors. It's gonna be good weather. The Eagles don't really play well on turf. Uh. But that's all I can say about this game. It's teaser friendly. Teaser friendly. But here's the question. Teaser friendly in both directions, Like,

it's really almost difficult to call. Do you tease the Saints? Do you tease the Eagles? I assume you're talking about the Saints. Yeah, I'm talking about the Saint. It's gonna be pretty high. You know, books are gonna definitely be fading rams New Orleans teasers. Uh. They they're gonna be one of those two guys to go down. Yeah, for sure. Marco, your thoughts here, well, uh, we promised to somebody on Twitter. Hit asked for the podcast this week to mention double joint.

Uh very good for so uh, I answered dad in uh uh when that happened on Sunday night, My god, the poor Bears fans, I said, at least though somewhere for at least one day, Steve Bartman is not the most hated person in Chicago sports history. You see the dude on the video that's being you know, sent all around. Who's on the Cody Parky Ranta. So with that said, Philadelphia, you know, Satan Nick to the rescue continues. I mean, right now, Nick Voles could run for mayor Philadelphia and

win in a landslide. I mean, the guy they love him right now. But let's be realistic. Um, last week they should not have won. UM. Chicago had every opportunity to win that game. UM the fact that they settled for field goals again at the beginning of the game. And you know, it was one of those things where they maybe the inexperience ends of Trabinsky, But you really can't blame Mitchell Travisky. We I thought going in that

that would be the astick to the game. It was his first playoff game, but he put up good numbers, you you can't fault what he did. He didn't have any turnovers. Uh, so you know, a clean game for Trabinsky. Uh. They just didn't get the job done. And one of the plays that I go back to, first of all, for folds as good as the game as he had, he did have two horrible throws. UM the interception in the end zone. I don't know what he was looking at coverage wise there that was horrible. And then the

other one, uh, the first one of the game. Uh, you know, could have proved costly, but he bounced back, kept them in position. But nobody talks about the stupid play of the Bears. Right when they regained momentum after their score. I think it was late third quarter, maybe early fourth um. They had Philadelphia pinned deep and there was that third down and long and the guy you know, could have pulled it in but had dropped it. And

then they get the call for the defenseless. The second receipt defender comes in and just levels them, lights them up, and they get the uns you know, defenseless uh defender unnecessary roughness call. They kept that drive alive, Chicago would have got the ball back. It probably midfield in momentum at that time, if they don't have that one game changing you know, Gaff, you know with the penalty. Yeah, I was on the Bears in that game. I'm I'm a little sour with it. But you know, they had

their opportunity. They make the two point conversion. It's a seven point game, not sitting on five and everything else. But can they can they close a forty one point gap from the first meeting? Uh? You know they got drilled forty eight to seven. Yes that was with Carson Wentz and yes, they had injuries at the time, and they're playing better. But the Saints team, you know, their machine. Unfortunately the last few weeks, you know, the offense hasn't

looked the same. Did this Saints peak too soon? That's my only concern with the Saints. Will I lay the points with them? If you ask me, do I feel better with taking the Saints are taking the Eagles. I'm gonna tell you, I'm gonna take the Saints. Am I gonna take teasers? Absolutely, I'll be honest. I am a little bit surprised though, Guys. I thought that this was the game that the number would be sitting at nine

to block the teasers. The fact that you know, we didn't see it go to nine um a little bit. You know, they're they're getting enough money on the Eagles and people are buying into this. They are the defending Super Bowl champs. And as you said, Gil, they've been in playoff mode for a month. You can't fault that, you know, mentality whenever a team is playing that way. But once again, we've got another team and I don't remember a playoff where we had as many teams playing

three straight road games. This is another one. Now granted, you know, again it's not the worst of it. There's not an East coast West coast in there. You know, they're playing Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans. But it's still it's three road games in a row. And guys, if you look, it's actually five of the last six on the road for Philadelphia. At some point, this magical circus ride is gonna come to an end, and it has the makings of when it does come to an end,

it comes hard. And Philippa and Philadelphia they got to exercise those demons from the first game. You know, if they're in this early, they can stay in this all the way. But what happens if they fall behind fourteen nothing and visions of that first game come creeping back in. I got this. I have a week vote for the Saints. I've got a very strong vote for the Saints. On teasers, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles tries it again. There's a

few things about the game. One Christie Andrews did did open the Saints as a nine point favorite at the South Point in Las Vegas teaser protection, but he, you know, at least early on tactical error, he even admits, because the money then came in on the Eagles, so it was not at all what he anticipated there early on. A few things about that game last week that that sort of get lost. First of all, how great was the mascot reaction when the field goal when they feel

this is a phenomenal Bears mascot reacted. Um. But the the time out that Doug Peterson called right before fourth down. You know a lot of people are like, oh, it was genius because they planned to play, and I'm like, nah,

not at the time, it wasn't. That was a very that gets washed away in history because they convert the one yard past the Golden Tate and so that time out, which would have effectively been a death knell for the Eagles if they don't convert their that kind of got washed away in history in my opinion, Golden Tate, which I said at the at the trade deadline, I'm like, I get it that this is a very active NFL trade deadline, but like the Lion's willingness to trade him

to a um Fends opponent, like a potential wild card race opponent, didn't happen for the lines, but they're Golden Tate justified his old trade value in one play. And then um the last thing the Bears when they went up fifteen to ten, that two point conversion attempt where they tried the gadget play with like Khalil Mack in

the game running in motion that failed. Like that to me was like a two point play you try when you're up nineteen trying to go up twenty one, not when you're up five in a division round playoff game. And like Naggie was all smiles about it when Khalil Mack was coming off the field, I was like, that is not a time to smile. And last thing and I'm sorry, and as I'll go to you right here, but I do think it deserves to be brought up one last time. Naggy's decision to beat the Minnesota Vikings.

I'm sorry, Like I know people are like, but this is not a second guess. I first guessed this, So I'm not just bringing it up because of the result. Even if Cody Parky makes that field goal, I'm still talking about it. Naggi's decision to say, you know what, we're just gonna we see the football team in front of us, We're gonna beat the football team in front of us. That's how we play. Whoever we play, we play, and they end up with the Eagles. Well, I do

think that it's worth questioning that once again. I questioned at the time, I'll question it again. I really do believe that they should have played that differently. Your thoughts on this game. I think this is the most difficult game the handicap because they played already. And what I mean by that is they played just into in November,

I mean mid November, not all that long ago. Um. And granted different quarterback situation, but we're supposed to be able to quantify what the change is, UM, the drop off for you know, an increase but what that said, we had a seven point line in that game and the Things blow them out seven. So as sharp betters, you're you're not supposed to overjust meaning if they were going to play the following week, you may shade it

a little bit. What a half a point one point at the most um based on perception, But what that said, Now we have to factor in the changing quarterback, the drop off from whence the Folds. I think most guys make it about one one and a half points at that at the most um, But then you add in how Folds has been playing, especially the last two games, where you know we could do no wrong more or less UM, And I agree with Chris, I thought the

line would be higher, closer to that double digit range. UM. For me, this is simple and I'm just gonna share as much information as I can. UM. And I obviously no secret. I have a future on the Saints and they were fifteen the one, so there's a lot of equity there. And for me, it's always the decision do I hedge with a chance of a middle or do I leave it alone? And for me, the only time I hedge is if I like the other side, if

I think the other side has value. I don't like to give up equity, especially when you have them by the balls, because you have them by the ball so few times. Um. And with that said, here's the game where I I thought, Saints at home, uh against the Eagles, who granted their stats on the road are are pretty line up with what they are at home. You know, it's like they really uh regress when they go on the road. UM. But we now have dominant the Saints are.

We know their home field advantage. It's it's been well established now for a long time. And I thought, Okay, I'm gonna be in a great position. Don't even have

to hedge this. Saints aren't gonna lose it. And then everything changed on Someday because as soon as those lines came out and there were nine and a half, there were ten up there ten minus one twenty UM to take the Eagles, and uh, the group that's done the best for me in the NFL took Philadelphia in every single account, all the way down to as low as plus eight and a half UM. So it was as legit of a position as they can take. Uh. And

that made my decision very easy. I too, will be hedging my future bet, hopefully middlely by having the Saints winning the game between one and eight points. Um. But again, that's what I could pass along, that that very established, long respected winner is on Philadelphia and likes them a lot. And I do radio in New Orleans every week, and I had built some good contacts there um, including one that that is in the Saints locker room a lot.

And without really giving a name or anything, the exact text I got maybe two or three days ago is dude, I'm about to make the biggest bet I've ever made on Philadelphia. Am I on the right side? Like he wanted to know why I have any information on the game. This is the guy who loves the Saints, follows the Saints, is in the Saints locker room, and it's telling me this line is way too high. Any indication as to why he said that to you though, No, No, I mean you know, it was on text back and forth

like that. It wasn't like really talking to him and digging into it. But um, yeah, he was just like, I went to place my biggest bet. And it's been rare over the last seven years I've been doing radio there um. I think maybe ten times as he reached out like that, and is when percentage has been pretty good, whether on the Saints or against the Saints. So the fact two of those sources came in against New Orleans makes me worried about my future. And to me, I'm

tagging Philadelphia man again. I'm not the smartest guy in the room. I try to surround myself with smart people. And when you do that, you gotta live and do him on a gage and else why surround yourself? All? Right? Final questions here, guys. You can answer this one with one word. The underdog then most likely to win outright this weekend in your opinion, Chris is Chargers, Marco, Chargers, Colts, Oh, I like it? Phrase one phrase to answer this question?

The game you like least? Chris? You already mentioned it again? Uh, Philly New Orleans, Marco, Dallas rams A Philly New Orleans because I I can't beat okay. Uh. Last thing, I am in Atlantic City to do a shoot with j Rute from MGM here at Borgata. But in a couple of days, I am going to Jersey City with a partner. Uh, and we're entering the draft. Kings Sports Betting National Championship, which is this funky little formatted contest that has just

gotten publicity recently. Really, it wasn't well promoted early on Chris any words of advice. You're the contest king, and why aren't you doing this? Or are you doing this? You know you touched on it exactly. I can't believe under promoted it. It was. I just found out about it last weekend for the first time. From what I understand, there's a big overlay warning that there's so few entries. Last number I saw it was about a hundred and forty people entered, and I'm sure there'll be a lot

of late entries. But um, when we won the Wayne Contest, we were fortunate enough that there was a huge overlay on that one because they had the guaranteed one thousand dollar first prize and there was only about six d people entered. So, uh, they took a big bath on that one. And I don't know what the what the top prize and this one you just mentioned is. But uh, you know, anytime you're in an overlay situation, you're getting

great value. But unfortunately I don't know the format of it, uh, other than I believe you can bet any bets that is allowed on the draft Kings app or that they offer. So I think you're going to be fighting people that are going to be very selective with props and very unusual bets. The people that are gonna win this contest are not going to be the people betting the normal bets. Are overtly recognizable that there are people out there that I know that are already out there that will find

the holes and the weaknesses. So it's basically similar to going into a horse racing, uh handicapping contest and you're facing people that you know are great friends with all the barns and owners and stuff, and you're supposed to, you know, beat those guys. So, uh, it's gonna be a tough contest. It's it would be very interesting to see the road of selections at the winner uh takes and wins with I agree with everything you said. I

think your spot on it. With all that, there will be an overlay and um, you know that's one of the reasons why smart people decided, hey, wait a minute, this is something we should we might want to enter. Um and I'm not talking about me, I'm talking about lots of other groups that have decided to do it here in the late going, and I think you're right.

I think most of the people, sort of the non sports bettors who get in, more of the fantasy players, they'll they'll do a t s and they'll just try to roll it over and make it bigger and bigger, and they'll crap out. And I think the smart players do play props, do play, you know, some of the more let's put it off the off the radar things we have our let's not forget there. There's limits to those bets. And with Kings, I'm sure the limits are low and it's all based on your account. You you're

betting real money, actual money. So if you can only get three d on a promp and the other guy could put two thousand on a side or total, I mean he gives him. You know, how much are you gonna build it up dooring through the prompts? So you gotta factor that into Draft Kings Sports Betting National Championship.

If you're interested here in the final going, if you can move on a drop of a dime, it's DraftKings dot Com slash s b n C. DraftKings dot Com slash SPNC Million Dollar first prizes, two and a half million dollar contest, ten thousand dollar entry fee, and then a five thousand dollar bankroll. Yeah, the way it works this is like this. You you've put up ten thousand dollars entry fee. They credit five thousand of that ten

into a draft Kings account for you. So you have a draft Kings sports book account on your phone and they will have five thousand dollars in there. You have to bet at least the thousand dollars each of the first two days Friday and Saturday. You could bet anything in that app, so it'll have sides, totals, all the sports prompts, whatever you want for the limits that Draftings allows. And again you've got to bet at least a thousand

dollars each of two days. Now Sunday, you have to bet at least two thousand dollars on the NFL divisional games, the first one, the second one, both of them. Whatever you want to do, and your final bets you could make are up until that second game kicks off. And then when when it's all over and that second game is done, whoever has won the most money over to three days, you qualify for the top prize through if they paid twenty five positions. But what the beauty is

the five thousand that's credited to your account. Any money you wont is yours. So I mean, even if you just don't break even, you get your five thousand back, you cash out your account, you leave, you know. So it's a great contest. And in fact, you know, like I said, I'm trying to get out there. I'm looking for flights and stuff like that. I just thought it was next week and I found out about it yesterday, So I'm having that logistic problems to to get out there.

But I think it's definitely worth going. And you're right the word I think you used this word, but whatever, it is all paraphrase. The trajectory of their bets, the the route they take to the championship. That will be fascinating to find out in the end. Las Vegas Chris Multiple Handicapping Contest champ appreciate it, man, Thank you for doing this. I know I've jacked up your lunch hour,

so thank you. Marco D'Angelo Ace, Thank you guys. Thanks for having two weeks away from the Depraved Vegas Lifestyle Show Championship round in between that. Good luck with all your bets this week, and everybody thanks so much for listening.