Beating The Book: 2019 Week 9 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

It's been phenomenal this exercise all year. We'll try to do it again today see if we can't uncover some edge in the process. Guessing lines Week nine guests along with us. It's interactive right here on the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy it's a numbers game with your host, Kill Alexander. Do you want told duty as to believe? It is a numbers game right here Visa The Vegas Stats in Information Network, Serious XM Channel two or four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app Phobos laying game plus

all down the line. For those who are just landing on the show for the first time. What we do is it It's tribute to the old Stardust radio show that Roxy Roxboro was an integral part of many years ago where we have not seen any lines. I have a guess for every matchup that Chrissie gives me, and then he'll tell us what he's gonna put up right up after the show. Now, Uh, let's bring in the star of the show. He has the South Point Hotel

Casino sports book director. Uh, and he is here in Las Vegas, but he's not in studio with us today. It is my miss book of Christy Andrews. Good morning, Chris. What's going on? How you doing? Uh? I'm doing okay, just a letterbody know, I am and out. The doctors weren't crazy about me being in a small room. Uh. No offense to anybody, but it's very vulnerable to uh, to any kind of infection. And it's probably not a

good idea for two hours. I mean, I'm going to do like a fifteen minute segment, but two hours then they're probably not a good idea. That was like the doctors are like, is that Guilshaw? Is he a Petrie dish of bacteria? Stay out of his studio for two hours? That guy? They really didn't even want me coming to work, but I told listen, I have to go to work. I can't stand it. So, you know, they kind of gave me some parameters. I like working on front, and I'm not allowed to work on front. I have to

work at the back. So you know, this the way it goes. Things you have to put up with. But this seems to work fine over the phones. Yeah, so we're going to do it. Seems to probably the rest of the year. Yeah, it seems to work just fine. Um, yeah, let's not get crazy. Don't do don't overdo it, don't do anything they don't want you to do. As far as your college football Saturday and your pro football Sunday, how do you do here? At the South Point College?

Was pretty good, not great, but pretty good. Uh, handle was fantastic yesterday again, the handle was fantastic. You know, we we turned a very very white profit. Teasers really murdered us yesterday. Yeah, teaser cards. I know. Jimmy posted the one teaser we took for seventy thousand from a guy. That one pretty easily. But he he was not alone that one guy. A lot of guys had the same and it's not the same teas or at least the same teams. You know that that's what really hurts. Yesterday

so you have the straight bets. We were actually fine, but the teasers teasers heard us a little bit beat us up. But you know what, it certainly wasn't terrible, I can tell you that, but it wasn't very good either. We made just a peanut ham sandwich for Chris Andrews

and crew here at the same point. Yeah, the Stanford Loong Tampa Bay sort of textbook Tampa Bay Philadelphia teaser came through, So I would I wouldn't be surprised if that was on a lot of people's teasers teasers yesterday, Uh, if not beyond that, depending on how they decided to manipulate it. All right, So yandel and Jacksonville was the one that Jimmy takes uh tweeted out for seventy and you know, we had a lot of a lot of other teasers besides that one guy in that same one,

you know, but Jacksonville. You know, well, I'm sure we'll talk about all these games, but we overen that game four and Apple was seven. That was not a good game for us. Yeah. Well, here's the thing about guessing lines this year again for people, um, it's been money in terms of the guesses sort of predicting movement in terms of the guests is actually manifesting in results led us to a couple of winners this past weekend as well.

We'll see how off again, the game that featured the most furthest off I should say the furthest off guests of whole time still to be played. That's tonight between the Steelers and the Dolphins, where I guess seven and a half and it ended up being fourteen, which is just unheard of. So we'll see if we have any of those anymore. I wouldn't expect it. But let's see how far off, or how far close, or how close rather we are to some of these. And we begin,

as always with Thursday night. For those again who aren't familiar, we review all of yesterday's games in the process. So let's start with Thursday, Chris. Okay, we got the forty Niners at the Cardinals. Forty Niners at Cardinals, forty Niners undefeated, along with the Patriots, the only undefeated teams in football. The Niners are seven and oh. Cardinals lose yesterday to

the Saints. That was one of those games where if you looked at the box score, the Saints probably should have won that game a thousand and nothing, but Arizona hung tight for a half. It was ten to six and a half San Francisco. First of all, since they're the undefeated there on the road. Here they blew out of Carolina team that had won four straight. Jimmy Garoppolo eighteen of twenty two for one seventy five, two touchdowns and pick Kevin Coleman. If you had him on your

fantasy team, you probably won. Eleven carries a hundred five yards, three touchdowns, two catches for thirteen and another touchdown a fourth touchdown as a receiver um also Emmanuel Sanders scoring in his debut. They outgained the Niners did the Carolina Panthers three eight to two thirty. In fact, rushing alone, they outgained Carolina two d thirty two yards rushing. They sacked Kyle Allen seven times, rookie Nick Bosa with three sacks to go along with an acrobatic interception in forty

six yard return. Uh. And they're unbeaten fifty one to thirteen. They beat the Panthers, good Lord, fifty one to thirteen. Uh. They cover as a four point closing favorites, handily of course um highest scoring game for the Niners and twenty six years off to their best starts is winning their first ten games. In nineteen nine, they picked off three passes from Allen, who came into the game with no picks on a hundred fifty three career attempts while winning

his first five starts. And then Arizona, as I mentioned, uh Kyler Murray again choppy Chris nineteen of thirty three for two twenty no touchdowns, no picks. They were two of twelve on third downs the old high leverage situations. Their three game winning streak was snapped. They were held up forty yards rushing Saints d holding them to blow two d sixty yards. By the way for the Saints,

that's the fifth strade opponent they've done that too. And on defense they allowed Drew Brees to go crazy thirty four or forty three for three seventy three three touchdowns of picked for Breeze. Despite the coming back rather from thumb surgery after five weeks away, Latavia's Murray had hundred two on the ground against him. Anyway, the Saints statue is huge. Five total yards for the Saints against the Cardinals, Saints were seven of twelve on third downs. Cardinals only

had the ball for twenty two minutes. So it's the it's the Niners short week here Thursday on the road at Arizona. The only thing you can compare this to is they were just on the road against Washington. Uh not this week, but last week that ended up being a slop fest, if you will, and the Niners didn't cover the ten point spread they wanted nine to nothing. I would assume this would be similar short rest here. I guess San Francisco minus ten, you're a little high.

I'm not sure like your number better, but it's eight almost pretty much everywhere I see eight. I'm surprised by that. You know what, really, you know what really stuck out for me, and I know I'm starting to warm the murray a little bit for the Cardinals. I think, you know, probably wrong, really knocked them quite a bit, mostly for his size more than anything else. That's really why I'm not on the side. I just think he's too small

to be a competitive quarterback in the long run. And he's sure he's been okay, so far better than I expected. I don't like the coaching staff for this Cardinal team. Yesterday they had there's my notes here, forty yards rushing. Come on, you're not helping your quarterback at all, you know. And I don't think Murray again, I don't have the box right from me. I don't even Murray at any And he's scrambled a little bit in the in past games and has done you picked up some yards on

the ground, but he got sacked three times. Uh, you know, they really had to air it out pretty quickly. But you know you can't. You're just not gonna win games rushing for forty yards. But you're right, you know you talked about how you look at the box score. New Orleans should have won by a million. Uh you know, I just I don't like this team right now in San Francisco is just playing fantastic football really on both

sides of the ball. Um. You know their defense, well, i'll tell you what's kind of sneaking up on me. And they the best defense in the league. They might be, they're gonna be right there and uh, you know, so, I mean I'm gonna I'm gonna open eight right now just because I see nothing else. But you know, I'm not sure. I don't like this a little bit higher either, like the home teams a little bit on these Stursday night games. That San Francisco is just way too tough,

and this is another coaching mismatch along with talent. So San Francisco, you know, I'm gonna open eight, but if I see it creeping higher, I'm gonna go higher with it. Those of us who have the Niners to win the NFC West, I haven't at plus three ninety five feeling pretty good, although that is you know what, the Seahawks and Rams aren't that far behind. If you look at the NFC standings here and again we're not quite at

the halfway point for everybody yet. But if you look at the NFC, you'll get one team out of the East, Cowboys or Eagles, then probably one team out of the South, probably the Saints apologies to Panthers fans um. And then there's five other teams competing for four spots. So between Green Bay, Minnesota, San Francisco, Seattle, and the Rams, one of those teams, it appears anyway now, is going to miss the postseason. Um. So that's that's pretty top heavy

in those two divisions. But the Niners looking as pretty as anybody. Seven and oh with a plus one thirty point differential through seven games. Uh, that is New England esque. Not quite New England is plus one eight nine through eight games. But San Francisco, man, they started out with some strange games, some strange outcomes. Barely beat Tampa Bay, barely beat Pittsburgh, and now they're looking just as fine as ever. So San Francisco in the end an eight

point road favorite. I am a little surprised by that. I would imagine people will just bet San Francisco now on that number. Yeah, I do too. And then considering the success that the teasers teaser players had this past week, you can see the the Niners is gonna be the first team on a whole bunch of teasers. So look for a jacked up money line on the Niners, and we'll be trying to get as much cardinal money as

we can. And I'm sure when they kicked off on Thursday night, we're gonna be rooting for a cardinal upset. And I don't know, it's to tell you the truth. So the crazy things happened in the NFL, that's definitely what we'll be rooting for. Yeah, if nothing else, you'd imagine it would be at nine for teaser protection, right, but no eight, you're telling me, Yeah, interesting, Yeah, that's why.

That's another reason why if I see it creeping up, I'm definitely gonna go because, yeah, we got to protect the shirts against some teasers. But if I open it nine, then they're gonna grab it right away, and then that doesn't give me the leverage to go back to nine once the teasers players start coming in like on you know, usually like Thursday, when they'll start playing it, you know. So that's the strategy of bookmaking. You there is a

little the strategy of bookmaking with Chris Andrews. Ye, all right, let's let's do a Sunday morning game while we're here Funday, early in the morning, six star Oh uh game that London. Obviously, I was gonna say Houston and Jacksonville, one of those Jacksonville home games in London that we get every year. So six thirty Pacific, nine thirty Eastern is what you're saying here state side Jacksonville. Then I gave this last year Jacksonville. The franchise gets fifteen percent of their total

income from this game in London. So if Jacksonville had their way, they'd play in London all the time, That's why they're there every week every year. Rather so Houston at Jacksonville at London early early on Sunday. Houston coming off a just a Superman performance, a Superman final touchdown from Shawn Watson. Watson was thirty nine for two seventy

nine in this game yesterday, three touchdowns, no picks. Of course, his favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins eleven catches for one oh nine that of course in Houston's win over Oakland, come from behind winn to twenty four, don't quite cover the five and a half point spread, but Houston gets the win. Uh they lost, however, did Houston J J. Watt to a season ending injury pectoral muscle. J. J. Watt done for the year. But there were about six and a

half minutes left the game. They play on. Referring to six and a half minutes left in the game. Watson hits his tight end Fells on the nine yard touchdown pass put Houston four, which was the eventual final score. It was the first lead of the game for them. Watson takes a cleat above his left eye. He adjust his helmet midplay. Still couldn't really see, so he just sort of tosses the ball toward the end zone where he expected Darren Fells to be, and sure enough, that's

where Darren Fells was. Houston holds on. By the way, they forced to punt at Houston on the next drive. When garyon Conley, who was traded to them from Oakland this week, knocked down a pass, it's Rail Williams on third down. So a lot of players making quick impact on their new teams. We just mentioned Manuel Sanders in the previou his game Jacksonville. They they get it done.

Gardner Minshew, for for as great as Deshaun Watson was, Gardner Minshew had some highlights as well, some escape jobs twenty two of thirty four for two seventy nine, three touchdowns. Note Picks also scrambled for twenty eight yards, which included three first downs. So he is real judicious on the scrambles. And it does sort of, you know, bring to mind when Nick Foles comes back, and that will be in

three weeks. That's when he's eligible to return from from an injured reserve from his collarbone injury, broken collar bone. What will they do? What will they do? It's the old American Express Commercial Leonard Fournette yesterday nineteam carries for seventy six yards. He got sixty six of the seventy six on his very first carry of the day. I believe it was Jacksonville's first or second play from scrimmage, which means the rest of the time he had eighteen

carries for ten yards on the ground. He did catch seven passes for sixty yards. UH Chris Conley four for one h three and a touchdown. DJ Shark uh six for seven nine and a touchdown. They were eight of seventeen on third downs. Was Jacksonville against the New York Jets in Jacksonville's um was the final score there twenty nine to fifteen win over the Jets, as seven point favorites outgained the Jets three eight nine to two thirteen. They sacked Sam Donald eight times for fifty one yards.

Seventh straight year now playing at Wembley for the Jaguars because it's jack because this game is in London, and I know I was just saying Jacksonville loves playing in London. But as far as making the line, if this were in Jacksonville, I would say it would be Houston minus four and a half, but because of the travel, it mitigates it a bit minus four. Let's say I'll just say it's Houston minus three at Jacksonville, which is at London. Really, well,

we see this game differently. Uh, you like three, it's two and I'll playing I think this game should be closer to pick. I think that J. J. Watt injury something that really bothers me here for Houston, and you know they they won the game yesterday. I mean really opening was was in it the whole way. Things I like about Jackson, Well, first of all, we know that the wife guys read Jackson will with any excuse they can have to bet him. Uh you know minshow not bad.

He's pretty good quarterback. He's played well he uh he got sacked twice, but for one yard told um it was QBR eight and five point six three touchdowns mill interceptions UM eight point two yards per attempt. You know, uh they you mentioned that they sacked the Jets, uh, you know, Donald eight times. So they're getting pretty good played on the offensive and defensive line of Houston. You know, moving what I think me is quite a bit. Uh. You know, they really had some miracle plays. I mean

I saw that played from Watson. I mean, you know, is it the play of the year? I don't know. I mean it's it's it's a great play. I can tell you that. Can you rely on that every week? I don't think so. But the kid is a fantastic quarterback. But you know, certainly one of the young stars in this league. Um, but I don't know. I think this game should be closer to pick on myself, you know, I really do. So I'm gonna open too. I see two am two and a half. I'm gonna open the

game too. And uh, I guess we're gonna disagree on this one, my friend. Well, so you like my San Francisco number at ten, you didn't. You didn't like this one as much you like the other the other way on this? Um yeah, DraftKings has has some m v P odds up right now. Jeff Deshaun Watson is the fourth shortest shot at seven to one in the never ending roller coaster that is m v P thoughts this year from week to weeks. Ely Aaron Rodgers right now plus two seventy five Russell Wilson, who I have at

five to one. Uh ticket here in town is three to one over their DraftKings, Lamar Jackson six to one and then Deshaun seven to one. Would you bet to Shawn there, Jeff, of the four you gave me, that's by far the best value. What happens if Houston goes eleven and five without what now and it's gonna be on Watson and the offense, that seems pretty good to me. Patrick Mahomes tend to one, by the way, for those wondering, fifth short of ship tend to one in draft Kings

in New Jersey. And I know he wasn't add. I think it was like plus one forty or something I get before he got hurt. The Chiefs are hoping he can come back, like they were even thinking about it briefly about this week, so he could be back way soon, you know. Yeah, they ain't got a big game coming up,

and I'm sure we'll talk about that in a little bit. Okay, we'll do the uh So that's a Thursday night to San Francisco, Arizona early early on Sunday the London game between the Texans and the Jaguars, which obviously uh implications large implications in the a f C South with Houston at five and three, Jacksonville at four and four. Both of those teams chasing the Indianapolis Colts will do Sunday

morning games state side Sunday morning. That is the standard ten am Pacific one pm Eastern times a lot um. We'll go through them all and review, of course, everything that happened last week right here on a numbers game guessing lines with Chris Andrews right here at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander, a numbers game brought you by good folks over at the bet

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in the National Football League. Skill Alexander. It's Chrissie Andrews. Christie not in studio, but on the phone with us once again this morning. Chris, let us continue with the early games. The early slated games on Sunday, your Washington Redskins at Buffalow the one in seven Washington Redskins. Is that what you're referring? Uh, well, Washington with the Redskins with extra rest here, they were outgained by the Vikings

on Thursday night, four thirty four to to sixteen. Case Keenum was twelve of sixteen for one thirty, no touchdowns, no picks, and he gave way to Dwayne Haskins after a concussion. Dwayne Haskins was three of five for thirty three, one touchdown, two picks. So we don't know who's starting at quarterback for the Redskins. Let's just start there. I'm not sure it matters, but yes, it actually kind of does matter because it goes from bad dwors. I think

people would agree. Haskins just doesn't seem to be ready. Buffalo Bills yesterday. Uh they lose and lose pretty handily to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh they lose at home thirty one to thirteen. They were one point closing favorites. So Buffalo, now if you go through their schedule this year, Uh, Buffalo, they beat the Jets, they came back from sixteen to nothing, They beat the Giants, they beat the Bengals, They lost to the Patriots, they beat the Titans, they beat the Dolphins,

they lost to the Eagles. So basically they've beaten Uh, they've been a bully, they've beaten all the bad teams, and they've lost twice to the good ones. Very sort of succinctly stated. It was a game the Eagles blew open by scoring touchdowns eighty three seconds apart. Yesterday, spanning half time. Final minutes of the first half, with the Eagles trailing seven to three, Buffalo had a third and two from its twenty eight Alan was running to his right with the ball tucked under his arm and then

got knocked loose. Then Carson Wentz hits a wide open tight end in the end zone. Five plays later, Sanders then takes off Miles Sanders does on the second stafform scrimmage in the third quarter, sixty five yard touchdown. And it was sort of like that Green Bay Oakland thing last week where it just went from a really close game to a sort of fade out complete at that point. Um, and so Buffalo has got this question mark around can

they beat anybody? Uh, They've faced just one opponent, New England, that ended the weekend with a winning record. They were coming off a week in which they had rallied remember to beat the Dolphins. They had to rally from a five point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Dolphins. They gave up two hundred and thirteen rushing yards yesterday to the Eagle, and again Josh Allen fumbled three times, lost only one of them. But he did, uh show again

that he's loose with the football sometimes. So it's Washington at Buffalo. You know, we talked about the NFC playoff picture sort of de facto halfway through the season. Buffalo is a game and a half clear of everybody else at the playoffs or to begin now, and their schedule looks pretty easy moving forward. Uh, I won't get much easier than this home game against the Redskins. I'll say Buffalo minus ten and a half. Once again, I like your number a little better. It's a pretty solid ten.

I see a couple of ten and a half, but with big juice on the dog. So I'm gonna open a ten, just again, a strategic move that uh, Like I said, if I commit myself too early, then I am committed. If I open ten, it's more of you know, kind of a right down the middle play but if I see that going higher, and I think it will and I think it should, I am gonna I am gonna jack mine up then too. Let mean a couple of things. First of all, I think the reason we're

seeing this so low. The total I'm looking at it's like third six and a half thirty seven, so they're not expecting too much scoring out of this game. Now, one of the things that we do, I mean just probably just about every legitimate bookmaker I know, does this, you know, allow parlays of uh, you know, a big, big point spread to the total whether you're betting favorite and over or dog and under. I mean, there is a mathematical correlation to that parliament and it is not

held held form this year in the NFL. And I'm looking yesterday, there's like three pretty big point spreads, looking at the Rams, I'm looking at the Saints, and I'm looking at New England, all double digit point spreads. Every one of those favorites covered and every game went under. So it's very strange. That is not the way the NFL has been playing, uh really since I've been booking.

And I don't know if this is an aberration. I don't know this is kind of like the new the new NFL with the halves and the half not you know, I don't know that I'm ready to commit to that. But this is the case here again you have a high point spread and a low total. I would not be surprised if it was favorite none. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw seventeen to three final in a game like this, not be surprised at all. Jeff, did we can? Did we copyright? Have it? Have it not? S?

As it pertains the sports on the show? Did we copy right? There? A? Sorry? Go ahead and I'm sorry, Chris, I didn't realize that. Sorry, but yeah, I know. Tell Jeff to work on network please. It's like, yeah, like I should have copied righted? Please or the company do it instead? Yeah? Another one by growing books anyway. You know, you know what happens to b R was gil Oh, I didn't see this? What was it? Zero point zero?

Is that good? Is that good? Yeah? That is not that I had to look again that you know it looks I mean zero points. They played late last night and they had trouble calculating that if they played on Thursday three, three or five for thirty three yards, no touchdowns, one pick, two sacks for yards. Yeah yeah, and you know Keenum just you know, he wasn't that bad, you know, and of course Washington did cover, so you know they

were fine with me. Anyway, I'm gonna open ten, but I really if I see this one higher, I'd like it higher. You know, it's uh, this could be another favorite favorite nunder game, even with a high points written low total Redskins two weeks ago. Once again, the feats of the Washington Redskins two weeks ago, second team in a quarter century to score zero points and cover that

in their game against the Niners. And then last week uh did not force a single punt and still managed to cover against the Minnesota Right, I did realized that they did not force a single punt. Yes, so what feet of points spread? You know? Uh, amazement? Can they achieve against the Bills. So I said ten and a half. I love it when you say you you prefer my number, but you're opening it at ten. I am, like I said,

I'll just be committing myself too early. And but if I see it going higher, I definitely like a Yeah. For DC fans, we'll talk about baseball real briefly moving forward here because we will have baseball tomorrow. Obviously, as as I know, some of my d C buddies attended games three, four and five this weekend did not go their way, all right? What's next? Tennessee at Carolina. Tennessee at Carolina at four and four. Tennessee four and three Carolina,

Ryan Tannehill and the Titans yesterday. Tannehill was thirty three for three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. Titans led this game against Tampa Bay yesterday fourteen to three after turning a pair of first quarter turnovers into two touchdown asses by Ryan Tannehill. They forced f Jamis Winston turnovers and all Bucks drove to the Titans thirty two. Had the two minute warning to think over a play for fourth at one. This was the deciding play of

the game. And what did they come up with? A handoff to Peyton Barber and out of the shotgun. By the way, I want to point that out, Jaral Casey, Jim Brown. They stopped him short. Casey said he heard the protection call. He knew the Bucks would run as a result of the protection call. Uh he recovered the fumble at the goal line did Casey last week to

preserve the three point went over the Chargers. Tampa Bay had a final chance, by the way, getting the ball back with forty two seconds Logan Ryan picked off Jamis Winston eighteen seconds left to see all the win. However, Tennessee was the beneficiary of a They attempted a fake field goal with just under four minutes left in this game whistle and there was a fumble whistle blew on the return should have been a Tampa Bay touchdown. The

whistle gets the best of the of the Buccaneers. Titans able to hold on to victory in this ballgame again by the final score of twenty seven to twenty three. They end up covering the two points spread, but this could have just as easily been a Tampa Bay win. Not just because of that play the whistle that prevents the return for a touchdown, but this was also you know we talked about New Orleans. If you look at

that box score, should have one by a thousand. If you looked at this box score at halftime, Tampa Bay should have been way up in that football game, but they weren't. Uh the turnovers to get you and then Carolina as we talked about before, Carolina loses San Francisco get housed fifty one to thirteen as Kyle Allen comes back to Earth nineteen of thirty seven for Alan hundred fifty eight yards, no touchdowns, three picks sacked again seven times on a day uh where we were able to

see Cam Newton in warmups for the first time. So maybe Cam Newton is on the doorstep of coming back. McCaffrey still fills up a box score fourteen carries a hundred seventeen yards, a touchdown, four catches thirty eight yards. Tennessee at Carolina Carolina minus four and a app Uh it's three and a half. UM debating on this one. Between three and three and a half because I think, uh, you know, Tennessee, you kind of talked about it. They

did not look particularly good yesterday. Still much sure about Danny all I mean, the guy has been around a long time, but he is better than Mariota. I still like Rabel as a coach. I think he's gonna I think he's gonna do well eventually once he finds his quarterback, which, hey, let's face it, some guys never do. Carolina, though I just would would bug me about Carolina was their offensive

and defensive line play we talked about. You know, the fourty nine has really dominated both sides of the ball. And uh, where's my note here? Uh, Kyle Allen, if you're looking at h qb R, he would have had the lowest QBR the day four point seven if it wasn't Perhapskins. Well that's right, Dapkins played Thursday, So I guess that the day, Uh Kyle Allen was low man on the total poll four point seven, Um fact seven times. You know. It's just boy, that's you know that that

just bugs me. I don't like one teams can't perform in the trenches. Um. You know. So I was debating between three and three and a half, So I'm gonna going three and a half at this point. I think your numbers a little bit high. But I do know what you're saying about Tennessee being extremely fortunate to win that game is uay. That was one of the games

I gave out last Monday. I like Tennessee a lot against Tampa Bay and they had them in the contests that I'm in, and I know it's pretty fortunate to win. And this game is kind of tough. The handicap, But I'm gonna go with three and a half. Yeah if that's three, and maybe even if three and a half, but certainly if it's three, I would be all over Caroline again, you know, not not that a box score means everything, but three to two six in total yardage

in favor of the Bucks. But it was those four turnovers, right and in a minus three or plus three from a Tennessee side plus three turnover differential, not to mention the fact that Tampa Bay com made a nine enalies and on the Carolina side. I mean, you can make the case Carolina got crushed by maybe the best team in the NFC, if not the National Football League, in the San Francisco Forts. I don't think that's hyperbole at this point to say that they could be the best

team in the NFC. So for me, if that's only three, I would be all over Carolina. Whether it was Alan Well, I don't want to say whether it was Alan or Cam Newton because I don't love Kim Newton. But but I would gravitate towards Carolina there um much like I would gravitate towards San Francisco in that Thursday Night line if that's only eight. So I would I would love Carolina in that game because I just don't think Tennessee. I mean, think about it. They're winning these games miraculously, um,

and they really needed Jamis to be Jamis. So I like Carolina. They're based on this exercise. Let's do, let's do, let's go, let's do one more before break. Okay, it's a good game. Wow. The beginning of the year, it's looks like it was gonna be a good game. I'm not so sure. Now. Chicago at Philadelphia, man Chicago three and four, Philadelphia four and four. Uh. Montgomery showed up

out of the Bears backfield. Let's give him that. Twenty seven carries a hundred thirty five yards for David Montgomery and a touchdown in Chicago's seventeen to sixteen loss at home to the Chargers. Uh. Chicago closes a three and a half point favorite in that game. Mitch R. Biskuite twenty two of thirty five for two fifty three, zero touchdowns, one pick, four times sacked. That's the thing with Rabisky.

When you look at the box score at the end of the game, it never looks as bad as the performance. But they were out first down, if you will, by the Chargers twenty to eleven. They're out gained by the Chargers three to thirty one. They were out rushed one sixty two to thirty six. That can't be right. If Montgomery had all those that that's that's status. That's that is incorrect. Forgive me for that. But they were out in terms of time of possession thirty eight minutes to

twenty two minutes in favor of the Chargers. Um so Eddie narrow mses a forty one yard field goal as time expires. Chargers hang on for the seventeen to sixteen win. The Bears took over at their thirty five yard line with one thirty three remaining. They had a chance to win it after driving all the way to the twenty one and then they had Matt Naggie has Mitch Robiskie take a knee with about forty seconds left rather than

try to get closer to the goal line. Pinniro, who had hidden upright on a miss earlier in the game, then hooks the potential winner wide left as time expires. Third straight loss for the Bears. Uh they came away with just here's the here's the real thing. They came away with just one touchdown and three field goals in five trips inside the twenty in this game. Um, not good. So a lot to answer for. And Matt Naggie couldn't have been more bitter and belligerent in the postgame press

conference when pressed on you know, taking a knee late. Um. So that's great Philadelphia, as we mentioned, big win over Buffalo, they get back to five hundred. They were eight of fifteen on third downs, two eighteen rushing yards, held Buffalo of just two d fifty three total yards UM. And it's it's interesting with Philadelphia because in this recency, that is the NFL recency of a league, or how people perceive it. Horrible performance at Dallas Sunday night. Orlando Scandrick

on the way out criticizes all the Eagles leaders. Uh, Lane Johnson, raising questions by suggesting that some of his teammates were shown up late for team meetings. But uh, they all rallied and now they open up a three game homestand with this one's I'll say Philadelphia minus four and a half. It's four and a half and five a little bit more five. But I like the higher number here. I like five, maybe even five and a half. I one five and a half and not not a

place I particularly respect. I'm I might open five and a half. Um, I'm gonna kind of debate between now and nine o'clock when we actually open, but put me down for five right now. But I want to go as high as I can't hit verse. I think it's a big coaching mismatch. Uh. Second, I think I've been eating all the year for for the real four they'la to show up, as I think they are a pretty

good team. I thought Carson Wentz really played well yesterday and a matter of fact, i'm looking he had the highest QBR of anybody, uh eighty nine point four yesterday. They ran the ball well, Howard at twenty three carries ninety six yards. They played against a very good defense too, and also would would as a little bit of a

tipoff sometimes. All the wise guys were on Philadelphia that that was definitely a Wise played yes, but the public was pretty firmly behind Buffalo, And once again, I think that is a tipoff because I think Buffalo, which we talked about a little earlier against the Redskins, but they are kind of like the schoolyard bully. I think they get beat up a lot of bad teams. I'm not sure how good they are against good teams. And I think Philly is a pretty good team. I think that

team is getting it together. In Chicago, boy, I mean Trabisky, his coach isn't help with him. I could tell you that, I know, Mike green Mike green Burgh says that, you know, and I think I've repeated it too. They ruin more quarterbacks than they develop in this league, and Travisky might be on that the low end of that spectrum. They're not doing much to help this kid. And you know that that decision to put it in the hands of a a very heffy kicker at the end of the game,

and that was just the poor decision. And they talked about, wow, we didn't want to run the ball and lose uh, lose yardage? We had Montgomery and what what were saying, I can't remember, what do you have a hundred twenty seven yards or hundred thirty five yards? Geez? Yeah, afraid of him losing yardage and putting in the field goal kicker in a worst position. And that just doesn't make any sense to me, and uh, you know, I don't know. I don't like that, but so I like the higher

number here open five. If I see it going higher, I will creeping higher. If I see four and app and five, I'm gonna be on the higher end of that. Yeah, just to be consistent. We'll get to this game coming up. And Indian Apples almost did this same thing. They settled for. It seemed like they said for an Adam minitary fifty plus. I was saying the same thing, and that one went through, and I was like, oh, never in doubt, you know. Uh, so curious decisions on both both team sports. We'll get back.

We'll do more of this. Uh, it's week nine. We're guessing lines. I see value already. It's a numbers game right here. At supports for today's show has always comes from bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for upwards of thirty years now, pro players considering them a must for the Golden trifecta their first to post odds day, take the highest limits and pride themselves on never having kicked

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same way as me. Trust me Bookmaker dot U slash gill. Thank me later. It's a numbers game with your host kill Alexander to believe in Adam Lids guessing lines Week nine in the National Football League. That's what we're doing right here on the numbers game Visa dot com the Visa app serious except Channel two oh four skill. Alexander

Jeff Parlay, producing number five is here as well. And Chris Andrews, star of the show, the director of the South Point Hotel Casino sports book, kind enough to join us once again each and every Monday, dutifully just a warrior on the show, Chrissie. But I you were rudely interrupted. Do you want to say something else about the baseball here? I apologize for no, no, no, I'm laughing. But that's why I'm in studio. I mean, it's working fine on the phone that I'd rather be in studio so I

can see the quawk running not a little bit. I understand how radio works. I'm a veteran Jill, so yeah, I do. But your point was well taken. And that's the thing about baseball, right, Momentum is only as good as your next starting pitcher. So uh, it's still anybody's ball game Houston and the Nationals game six tomorrow night. We'll have Paul Sport on tomorrow, will have Jason Weingarten will do all of that. Tomorrow. Let us resume Week nine guessing lines. I think I still think we're on

early games. Where do we leave off? Yeah, Unfortunately there's no line on this game, and it could be the best match of the weekend Minnesota at Kansas City. And right now I see no numbers at all because we just don't know about my Homes. Um you know, now, you know, More really played well. I was shocked how well he played. You know, they didn't cover last probably

you know, but he played really well. But I mean, really, it's got to be you know, about a seven point difference, you know, at the least with between him and Mahomes. But we can't have a can't have a point spread with that quarterback being a questionable. Yeah, I mean, if it's more right, So More, by the way, you're right, twenty four or thirty six yesterday for two sixty seven, two touchdowns, no pick um, dislocated kneecap is why Mahomes,

the reigning league m VP, is still out. But the Chiefs actually hoped at one point that Mahomes kind of went under the radar for me. They hoped that he could make a recovery, uh and play in this game. Um, so that was you know, that was pretty interesting to me. So they are really hoping he can play in this game against Minnesota. They trailed did the Chiefs fourteen and nothing?

But they led seventeen to fourteen at halftime. Uh, they were pretty good on third down six of eleven, but they end up losing the game last night four You're right, they were five point dogs, so they didn't cover. Probably should have, but Aaron Rodgers was a superman. But it's Minnesota at Kan's City. And so you know, this was Green Bay at Kansas City and it's Matt More. If it's Matt More, I would imagine the line should be similar. I would have it at like Minnesota minus three and

a half or something like that. But obviously if it's if it's Mahomes, you know, that shifts greatly in in the swings all the way past the three for Kansas City. Yeah, so that's why he's about a seven point difference I think in your game, you know, and as good as Matt Moore. Put I say one thing about Andy Reid. There's so many things I like about Andy Reid. Why did he punt the ball in the game? Yeah, I'm sitting Amazon, what you You're never going to see the

ball again? And of course he didn't. Of course he didn't. And uh, you know, I mean, yeah, I needed Kansas City pretty good last night you know, for the sports book. But you know, so obviously I was rooting for him, but man, oh man, he just cannot punt the ball there. And I knew it right away. I mean, you can't give the ball to roll a couple of guys. You can't give the ball Rogers Brady and the game over at that point, you know. So you know, it's just

a bad move. Like the Andy, that's so many good things, but that was a lot of bad. That was one of the bad. Yeah. It was fourth and three at the Kansas City forty with five minutes and thirteen seconds left in the game. Kans City had their full allotment of time outs. But it's Aaron Rodgers on the other side of the field, right, so you still got your three time outs. Might as well go for it and try to keep the ball out of his hands. But he elected to punt, and you're right, they never saw

the ball again Green Bay. Okay, so no line there because we don't know who's playing quarterback for the Chiefs. Let's move on to the next one, the Jets at Miami. No, what did you just call Minnesota Kansas City potentially the best game of the weekend. What would this be I don't know, but you know, you know they all pay the same win or you get paid. That's right. A lot a week here, Uh, Jets at Miami. By the way,

I'll just I'll just guess the line first. I'll put the Jets in no man's land at like minus five and a half in between the three and seven Donald yesterday in that game we were referencing earlier against Jacksonville, Sam Donald one of thirty for two eighteen, two touchdowns, three picks, sacked eight times, eight times. That's twice as many times as any other team has sacked him during his two year NFL career. Two of his picks were in the fourth quarter. Jets had ten penalties for eighty

three yards. They manages two hundred thirteen yards. By the way, ninety three of the two thirteen came on their opening drive. Now, let me repeat what I just said. They managed two hundred thirteen yards and Donald through for to eighteen, which means that all those sacks are factored in. And here's a tweet this is from UH was that Michael Nannia? Is that what that is? Jeff Jets offensive line maybe one of the worst ever so far. The Jets have

rushed for four hundred forty seven yards. Listen to this. So far this year, the Jets have rushed for four hundred forty seven yards and lost two hundred and sixteen yards through sack. They're just the second team in the Super Bowl era to run for less than four hundred fifty yards and lose two hundred plus yards through sacks over the first seven games. The other was the nine Colts who went one in fifteen. Your New York Jets, Wow, and then you you said something else to parlay right,

there was something else about the Jets. Uh, more than thirty sacks and they've rushed for under five hundred yards, which is I think maybe the only team to do that through seven games as well. So there's all kinds of anomalies here historically, not an anomaly because this is the Jets, but anomaly historically. But it's the Dolphins. The Dolphins we haven't seen play. They played a night against the Steelers again in that ridiculous point spread of fourteen.

But I'll just say Jets minus five and a half. The Jets are one in six the Dolphins currently right now at this moment oh and six. As you're saying going on that tirade again the Jets. Some laughing because there's going to be a five or five an alf point Roads favorite, right, how bad this league is at the bottom. I'm gonna open five. I think both numbers five and five and a half. I'm gonna open five.

I just expect a good performance out of Miami tonight and boys, the Jet team and uh, you know Levy on Bell, I mean nobody in Pittsburgh. I mean we wish we had to believe you. We wish we did. You went to the Jets, I mean you got a one and done coach, I think, and you got the worst offensive line not just in the league but probably years. You know, how do you think this was gonna work

out for you? Um? You know Sam Donald, I mean you know, I think he has a lot of talent, but boy did not protect the football, whether it's fumbling or throwing interceptions, and all the sacks he's had, I'm sure just rattles the hell out of them. And uh, you know, not running aim to help, which you know, can you know, certainly help a young quarterback. You know, the defense, I guess it isn't horrible, but if it's not doing enough to help the team win games. So

all that being said, that's our tirade. I'm gonna go with five on the Jets, right rather Yeah, obviously tonight I think the Uh I think the Dolphins cover because you know, based on my guests of seven and a

half and it's fourteen, I think they cover. Uh. Jeff Carls, who is a lifelong New York Jets fan, this game against the Dolphins next week, you said before the show, this is a game you expect the Jets to lose outright, especially if, especially if Miami does not play well tonight, Right, especially if Pittsburgh covers the two touchdowns, that line will get inflated even further, and that will be a great opportunity on Miami. I've seen this. I've seen this too

many times. Go. It's like it's like I've given birth my my redskin. Defeatism has given birth to Jeff Carls and his Jets defeatism. I love. It makes me so proud. Alright, well, I'm gonna mark that down Dolphins, alright, winner next week for Parlay? All right, what's next? First of all, let me say this business will ruin anybody, won't it? What's that say again? Business will ruin anybody. Absolutely, lets just make a cynic out of all of us, that's sure.

I laugh. I got this. He's really good. I found a real diamond, Um Trevor that works for us back and the sports. I mean, I really like him. And I just laugh and I said, how long before we ruin this guy? You know, he's like twenty five years old. He's the nicest kid you ever met, And thinking, oh man, does she mean about twenty years if we'll be ruined like the rest of the let's oh man? Okay? Next up? Pretty good game here, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Well again Pittsburgh,

we haven't seen. They're playing the Dolphins tonight. Indianapolis gets the win yesterday, Um, not the cover, but the wind. They beat the Broncos fifteen to thirteen. They don't cover A six and a half point favorites or six depending on where you got it. UM ten penalties for the Colts yesterday a hundred three yards. But really it came down to Adam Vinetary And I was saying earlier as much as I was killing Naggie at the time for just settling for the Pinero field goal, which missed. I

was also killing Frank Reich. If I'm to be honest, I like what they're gonna settle for this field goal from Vinetary. So Vinetary missed a forty five yard or wide right earlier in the game. He missed the tying extra point in the third quarter, if you recall, and then he goes ahead and just sinks of fifty one yard or with twenty two seconds left. No, no problem. Indy wins fifteen to thirteen come from behind fashion against

the Broncos. He missed five of eight kicks in the first two weeks of the season, if you remember, before, seemingly sort of settling down, just one miss on a long field goal in the next four games, and then uh, Frank Wright did what Matteggie did. He called two runs from just inside the Broncos thirty five and the final seventy three seconds. At least he called a run though, right, NAGGI just yeah, that's true. I'll give him that. But that's the third straight win for Indie. There five and two.

They remain a top the a f C South. Obviously, Houston breathing down their throats, are breathing down their necks. Pre set fifteen to oh two, no touchdowns, no picks, sacked four times, but Indie gets the win. I'll say Indie again. No, Pittsburgh, we haven't seen them yet, but I'll say Indie minus three and a half at Pittsburgh. WHOA, You're way high? So what what is it? Okay? So you know what this tells me? Then all the so

Parlay was was hinting at this before the show. So the market, so while we've been focused on the Dolphins there against the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight, and maybe it's not really focused on the Dolphins but just focused on the matchup. Really, what this is telling me is that the market, in

my opinion, is way over rating your Steelers, Chris. In both cases, well, I think they're overrated tonight because you know, listen, I'm quite not Jeff Parlay with my feelings on the Steelers, but I'm seeing them blow games that they're supposed to win. I mean that's been kind of you know the mark of the uh, the Mike Common era, you know. And I don't think that they'll blow this game tonight, but

I do think they'll look bad and not cover. But you know, Pittsburgh has lost where they got four losses. You know, they got blown out game one by the by the Patriots, no excuse for that, but there are other losses were by two, three, and four points, so they didn't right in it. So they've been a little better in their record and it looks like they're kind of settling down. I mean, this is a good organization,

uh you know. And I know the Minka Fitzpatrick trade that knocked by some people and complimented by others, and we didn't go either way in that. But my point about that one is that the Steelers really try to put a contender out every single year. There's no tanking, there's none of that stuff. They want to contend every single year. And I think right now they're a game

and a half out of the wild card. I really didn't check the standing this morning, but going into the weekend they were game and a half out of the wild card. They think they're right in it, and uh, I kind of do too. And uh, you know, I think the Cults are a very good team, but Pittsburgh got home. That ain't gonna be easy for anybody to beat them at home, not anybody. But like I said, they blow the games they're supposed to win and play real tough against the tough teams. I really like pick

them in this game. And I see I see some picks. Uh, with a little bit of juice on the favorite. You know, the Bookmaker was one of the big outfits out there. They got to pick minuster call of fifteen on Indianapolis and other than that, I see most of the ones I always gonna open this game pick them, I think, uh, you know, I think that's the right number, regardless of what happens side, because I don't want expect that to look good. But I spill think they should be picked

them at home against the Colts. Give me the Colts, get them interesting. Interesting. And not only did I not have the three, I had a three and a half parl What did you what did you guess this before? I had indeed minus one and a half. Okay, here's more reasonable than mine than according to Visa via the market. Yeah boy, okay, So maybe I'm under rating Pittsburgh. Maybe I don't think. By the way, they're two games, two

games away from the final playoff. Birth right now. Five and three is where you need to be for the second playoff. Birth right now anyway in the a f C and Pittsburgh is two and four, so one back in the lost column. Two games total in that. All right, let's do one more here before break and they're and they're prohibitive favorite time too. Yeah, that's right, winner lose that they are prohibitive their okay. Next up that Froyd

at Oakland Detroit at Oakland Detroit beats the Giants. Uh. They do so by the final score of thirty one to twenty six, so they do not cover the six and a half point spread. UH Stafford two three forty two, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked four times. UH Gala days six catches, one three, two touchdowns, eight for fourteen on third downs. Lions had lost three straight. They traded away their safety and captain Quandre Digs to Seattle

days before the game. They do get it done though against the Giants, so the lines are three three in one. And then there's the Oakland Raiders who we talked about earlier against the Texans. They were leading that game all the way until the Deshaun Watson superman play. Derek Carr eighteen of thirty for two eighty five, three touchdowns, no picks, Toorell Williams three catches ninety one in a touchdown, Hunter Renfro four for eight eight in a touchdown. But the

Raiders eleven penalties a hundred yards. I gotta get that cleaned up. So Oakland's three and four. Now Oakland's a favorite here. They gotta be a favorite in this game against Detroit at Oakland. Um, I'll say just shy of three. I'll say Oakland by two and a half. I see two and book bigger. Who I just talked about. One of the biggest topics out there just went from two to two and a half. So obviously somebody made them up bed And I see some two and a half

starting to pop up in other spots. So it looks like it's it's either a strong too a pinnacle with two, or some juice on the fair. Let me do that. But okay, anyway, two or two and a half. I think two and a half. You know, I know Detroit one yesterday I didn't cover, by the way five teams one and didn't cover on the weekend. Um one didn't covered up like a little bit phony. You know, I'm not sure what to think about them, you know, Um, and I think I said wrong earlier. I thought that

Carson went to the highest quboor the weekend. Actually Matthew Stafford at the highest QB or the weekend ninety three point two. So really, but I think he is pretty much the whole team here. Uh. You know, the Raiders easily could have won that game yesterday. You know they did cover, but I thought they easily could have won that. That was one of my picks in the contest that

i'm and I had the Raiders. Um, boyd Carr is the most frustrating quarterback kind a long time for me, because he really played well yesterday but played some really stupid things. And I'm gonna open the game two and a half. Um, I think that's probably a good number. I don't see if it goes to three. I think they'll be all over Detroit and this one. But two and a half, I'm probably gonna write some pretty decent open bits and remember that that might be the right

side here. Um, you said five teams one but didn't cover. I got three. I got indeed Detroit in Houston, which is still a lot for any weekend. What were your other two that you add? Do you remember well the Redskins. Oh on Thursday, right, okay, Minnesota, Yeah, I said for the weekend Redskins. Uh, we're my at here. Uh, that's that's for many Detroit, Oakland, Minnesota, Detroit, Oakland, Indianapolis, Minye Connesota, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis. Yeah. Yeah,

let me take my notes. Maybe it's four. Still four is a lot in any given weekend. Seattle, Okay, I closed, I I see it closed at Uh yeah, no, you're right because it's uh yeah, seven and a half is consensus. You're right. Okay. So Seattle was the other one, which we'll get to. Okay, let's take a break, let's do more. Remember guessing lines in every numbers game brought you by

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restricted supply. Visit bet mgm dot com for the fullest of terms of conditions. Gambling problem called gambler. It's the bet mgm ap back with more guesting lines. Week nine in the NFL with Chris Andrews next on Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander having a dinner with Jeff Parlay's grandparents tonight. Uh. And this this is on the tribe side of the family for Jeff and Jeff. Jeff, did you describe your grandparents are in full what mode? No? My my my grandfather has been.

I've been great the whole time. They came. Both both of my grandparents came down to the South Point to watch college football and my grandmother to play black jack. And my grandfather enjoyed Todd's company, enjoyed my company. But my grandmother early on in the early on, in the early on in the trip. Uh, it was, it was in a full yento mode early in the trip. But uh, but uh, it has got it has gotten better, it has gone along. But it's been a very enjoyable few days.

And uh, I'm very intrigued to see how this didn't you just tell the Gallagher story real quickly. But oh no, I will will hold off on that for now. Hold off. It's a good one to get cold feed here on this show. All right, let's bring Chris Andrews back in on the show Week nine, guessing lines. Have we gotten an afternoon games at Chris? Uh? Oakland was the first afternoon year. Okay, So how many total afternoon games do

we have? Uh? Four? Four? Okay, So let's do the Let's do the final three of those afternoon games right here. What's next? Okay? Tampa at Seattle. Tampa at Seattle, two teams that came in the league I think of the same year together did in the seventies six. I believe Tampa at Seattle um. All right, So Tampa Bay, as we talked about, coming off that very unfortunate loss to the Titans by the score of what was the final there again, twenty three, Tampa Bay was two point dogs.

They covered on teasers but did not cover pre flop a t s Jamis Winstone for three oh one, two touchdowns, two picks, three sacks. He did gain fifty three yards on the ground eight carries. Mike Evans, by the way, let me just say this about Mike might be the most dominant receiver in football. Eleven catches for one two touchdowns. They should pass to him every single damn play like it's just it's unstoppable. They outgained as I mentioned earlier,

the Titans forty six. They lost their third strade fourth in five games. Despite Winston and Evans putting the Bucks up twenty three to seventeen with a touchdown pass at the end of the first half a second in the third quarter, they wouldn't score again though after that one in the third quarter, despite out gaining again forty six out getting the Titans by that margin but four turnovers and minus three in turnover differential. Bruce Arians quote, Jamis

didn't throw one damn interception. That was his fault. His receivers let him down today. Guys stopped on roots they were supposed to be going down the middle, unquote, So Bruce Arians taking the blame off James, putting it on the receiver's nine penalties eighty seven yards for the Bucks um.

And then there was that inadvertent whistle that cost him a fumble return after stopping Tennessee's fake field on the final minutes with three forty one left, after linebacker Devin White stopped Brett Kern short on a fake um, knocking the ball out, Andrew Adams grabs it, runs towards the end zone, only be whistled dead. Winston now ten combined turn overs over his past eight quarters. By the way, that was a punt not a fake field goal, right.

Jeff uh Ten combined turnovers over his past eight quarters for Jamis Winston. Bucks also held the three field goals in the first half, twice went inside the Tennessee five. You know how'd goes? Bucks fans are two and five at Seattle. Now who gets it done? Uh? Seattle beats Atlanta twenty seven to twenty. But as you point out, Chrissie, they do not cover the consensus clothes here, which ended up seven and a half or eight, depending on where you got it. But Seattle's four and o en road

games this year. That's the first time they've done that since nineteen eighty. They led twenty four to nothing at halftime, and you figured it, Okay, well this is over and this is one of these games. Now, look, the Falcons have lost sixth straight there one in seven. The Seahawks won the turnover battle three to nothing. DK Metcalf three catches thirteen yards, but two of them were for scores lock at six for a hundred they allowed. Here's the thing.

If Matt Matt Bryant missed two field goals that were greater than fifty yards, so there's no shame in in that, I guess, but if he makes those field goals. And then there was this, you know, we talked about Tampa Bay getting screwed on that on that whistle, the inadvertent whistle, not even inadvertent or not inadvertent, it was a whistle, and so they didn't get the touchdown on the return Tampa Bay. But there was a play in this game where DeVonta Freeman was was called for a fun He

was inside the uh the Seattle five yard line. They rule it a fumble. Replay shows bye bye. I mean, maybe I'm just crazy, but it looked like he was so clearly down and they didn't reverse it, and so Seattle got the ball in this game against Atlanta. And I'm just thinking to myself, for for all that we want to say about Seattle winning this game, and we

want to sort of, you know, downgrade Atlanta. Atlanta could have very easily not only been in this game, but there's Sitteria where they win this game based on some of the things that went against them. Matt Shop thirty nine of fifty two for four sixty one touchdown and picking his first start since season when he was with Baltimore. Matt Ryan held out with the spring right ankle. Maybe it says something about Matt Ryan that Matt Shaw could just come in and throw over four sixty Julio Jones

had one fifty two of those with ten catches. But it's a Tampa bat Seattle here. Um talking about Atlanta against Seattle. So is the fact that Seattle gave up five twelve yards. Even all that said, Seattle is gonna be a favorite here, and it's gonna be you know, I'll put it no man's land between the three and the seven. I'll say Seattle minus five and a half. You're a little shy. I'd see six and a half primarily, which is what I'm gonna open, although I do see

a bookmaker again, very respected outfit. Haw did six and a half and went to six. Uh so somebody made him a bet and I think some pretty big actions. So somebody pretty sharp must have made that play, because they don't they don't move on air, and they take some pretty big play. So I think I think you might see some wives gap play on Tampa as the public will be behind Seattle. I'm not sure that's the right side, by the way, but Seattle was not quite the home team that we've been used to over the

last maybe decade. Uh, they're, They're. Part of it is that they're a very good road team. And you know, we talk about home field advantage. It's always you have to look at the differential. How good are they on the road, how good are they at home? And there's not that much of a differential anymore with Seattle. Uh, They're they're, They're obviously a good road team. I think what you say, are four o on the road straight up? Yeah, I didn't have recovery yesterday, but became close. But yeah,

I'm with you. They easily could have lost that game. Um give up four forty yards to match Shop. That's you know, that's Uh, you gotta you gotta look at some things there. And I said at the beginning, you know what, Bruce arians I signed by Campa Bay as their coach. I thought it would really helped Jameis Winston a lot, and I think he has. I think Winston is playing some pretty decent football. And I didn't see the game that closely to tell you whether those interceptions

were his followed or not. But he's doing pretty good. But you know, the more I'm thinking about this, the more I talked about it. I think he opened the game six. You know, what the heck I think that. I think that's the right time. I think Tampa is going to get some wide guy money here, and like I said, I think that's that's probably appropriate. I think that's the right touch. I'm gonna open six. They'll probably bet me up to six and a half. If that's okay,

I'm gonna take a bet. Yeah. And then that's part of the reason why I have at five and a half, and I would be I would leave Tampa Bay here too. Again for all the reasons I stay to Tampa Bay one again. Forget the fact that they got screwed on the whistle, but they were dominating that game against Tennessee. It's just the four turnovers, right, It's it's you know, and Bruce Arian says it was the receivers. Maybe it was,

but your minus three in turnovers. Tampa Bay is one of these teams where one of these weeks they're not going to do that, right, Like, they can't do that every every single game in Seattle. Again for their what ends up looking like a pretty cruise job of a win. Yesterday it was twenty four to eleven. The play that I was referring to was to eleven Seattle with just under thirteen minutes left in the fourth quarter, and Atlanta's got the ball first and goal at the Seattle eight.

They're down thirteen at this point. This is after the Matt Bryant missfield goals and Shaw passes to Freeman for a seven yard game. It's all the way to the one yard line, I said, within, I said inside the five, it was all the way to the one. He gets tackled by Marquise Blair, Freeman fumbles, Bobby Wagner recovers returns of five yards. He looked so down to me, and I'm I'm shocked it wasn't reversed. Um. And so I think they got screwed a little there too, not a

little a lot. And you don't I mean that game is eighteen. Let's say you don't know how that how that concludes? Um. So yeah, for me, that's Tampa Bay or nothing in that game. If you're saying Seattle six or six and a half, you said you open at six. You said six. And I'm a lot of big advocate of buying half pank, you know, but if you can buy that one up to seven. It might be a pretty decent play. I mean, listen, it's hard enough to win an eleven and ten in this league, you know.

But yeah, let alone six to five. But if you can find somebody saw you half a point at a dollar twenty, that might be a decent buy to get it up to seven. Okay, let's do one more. Cleveland at Denver, Cleveland at Denver, Cleveland at Denver. Alright, much to be said here. So Cleveland loses to the Patriots, which somehow we haven't gotten to yet. Uh. Patriots win that game twenty seven and thirteen. They cover uh ten points spread. Cleveland falls to two and five. They've lost

three straight games. Uh. Three first quarter turnovers by Cleveland on three consecutive offensive plays that allowed New England to capitalize on take a seventeen and nothing lead Nick Chubb back to back fumbles Baker Mayfield with an interception, and let me define that interception first of all, um, by the way, three consecutive plays on offense. First time any

team has done that. Turnovers on three consecutive plays since the Dolphins did it Week one of the twelve season against the Texans and It's only the seventh time that's happened since two thousand, so that's how you know much of an anomaly that was. Patriots took a three to

nothing lead. Chubb takes a handoff from Mayfield, had the ball kicked out of his hands by left guard Joel Betonio indvertently uh Dante high Tower returns to twenty six yards where a touchdown, so fumble scoop touchdown on that one. Then the first play of the ensuing series, Patriots kickoff flanded out of bounds Chubb. Chubb gets the ball again and he takes off forty four yard gained down the sideline. He appears like he's going into the house for a touchdown.

And then Jonathan Jones, new England quarterback, he he takes the ball, punches it out from Chubb's hands on the Patriots four, recovered by mccordy. Then, following a Patriots punt, Uh Lawrence Guy breaks into the backfield. There's the only way to describe this is it just looks like Baker

Mayfield simply shoveled the pass right to him. Um it was attempted for attempting to get Jarvis Landry on the Cleveland sixteen UM and so two plays later, by the way, Brady Edelman and they were off the Patriots words of the races. But Nick Chubb twenty one thirty one and looked, this should be at you know, I think Lombardi said it on Follow the Money this morning. They should have

just a this should be based on the run instead. Um. You know, they're trying to They're trying to do all kinds of things and you're not really sure if they have an identity. They were three of twelve on third downs that were minus three in turnovers? Were the Browns thirteen penalties for eighty five yards thirteen? Uh. They did have Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back in the in the secondary. That didn't help much. But here here again.

Now we talked about coaching mal practice, and we've talked about it in several other games. But the Browns are down twenty seven to ten with six seventeen left in this game. It's fourth and eleven from their own twenty four yard line. The Browns, I guess the play clock the game clock had stopped, but the play clock is running down, and I guess it was too much of

a frenzy for Freddie Kitchens. The Browns decided to take a false start penalty with the play clock winding down, so that Baker Mayfield essentially could get sacked on fourth and sixteen from the Cleveland nineteen. Oh my god, here's Darryl ryder By the way at right or wrong? Fan? So fall starting fourth and eleven with punt unit, Freddie pulls them, puts offense out for fourth and sixteen. Baker sacked.

Nathan Zigurro just reported Brown's deliberately false started so the offense could return to the field because Kitchens didn't want to burn his final time out. Clown show its sweet, oh man. And then there's Denver, who we said lost Indian Yeah, yeah, oh my god. Denver was two of twelve on third downs and they're lost to the Colts. They had ten penalties for eighty eight yards. They lost their second straight third this season in the final thirty seconds.

They've lost three games this year in the final thirty seconds. Uh. They took over at the Colts four the eight midway through the fourth quarter, they called two short passes one run before punting, and when the Broncos took over at their own thirty eight. With three thirty seven left, they called four runs in one short pass before another point. Joe Flacco has awakened from his coma quote. I just looked at it like we're now a two and six football team, and we're like afraid to go for it

a two minute drill? Who cares if you give it back to the guys with one forty left. They obviously got the field goal. Anyway, Once again, we're a two and six football team, and it just feels like we're kind of afraid to lose a game. Unquote Joe Flacco, Ladies and gentlemen. Denver settled for two short first half field goals, by the way, one capping a seven team blade drive of over eight minutes, the other to finish a third team blade drive that took over five and

a half minutes. What was this game again? Cleveland at Denver? Oh my god, I don't know. Cleveland minus one and a half, I don't know, something like that and Denver minus one and a half. Okay, I yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, God almighty, you know these both coaches one and done. I mean, Vick Vangio has been in the leaf forever. I thought he was a pretty good hire by Denver, but he has been a disaster at Kitchens. I never expected much. I don't know what they were thinking.

I guess he had some play calling success with Mayfield last year and they wanted to go in that direction. He's terrible. The Denver coaching staff is terrible. I mean John always finally getting a little heat. I mean, let's face it, he stumbled into Peyton Manning. Uh you know, Oh my god, two bad franchises with unbelievably rabid fan bases. You know, I feel gonna feel a little sorry for both of them, really, but I guess I'm gonna go with one and a half. I hope I don't need

this game for much. But we're talking about teasers earlier. Hey, Cleveland plus and take a six point either, Cleveland plus seven and a half. I don't see how you're gonna lose that one. You might, it's Cleveland that's don't tempt to look like a pretty decent don't encourage him. Yeah, no, No, I think you're right. That's an obvious, obvious teaser. Leg You know you said something right there, Chris. I don't want to see upon you said. Are both of these

guys one and done. So Jake Gruden, who obviously was the Redskins coach for many years, far too many years, if I may just say, he was fired already. Dan Quinn is the favorite in the clubhouse, uh to get fired. And obviously dan Quinn wants a super Bowl coach with the Falcons, but he's clearly the favorite in the clubhouse, I think to get fired. But one and done, guys, Parlay and I were talking about this before the show

is there. Do you ever remember a year where there's more possibility of a one and done coaches than this year? Oh no, no, no, I mean the Jet coach Gaze. I mean, I think he's one and done. I think that's what That's what said Jeff Off on it. Yeah, case who you called? What did you call him? Jeff the Worce call him two point oh coach at two point crazy? Oh my god? Is there a bigger insult

you can coach? I don't know. And we probably have some youngsters out there that don't understand exactly how insulting that is. Yeah, I mean, but then there's guys that have been around for just a couple of years, like like I think about Shermer, who's like seven and seventeen with the Giants, all these guys anyway, all right, so you're opening, so it's one and a half, and that's

what you're opening out in favorite Denver. One and a half. Yeah, one and ad Like I said, you know, I hope it's a blow out one way or the other, because this looks like a teaser game to me. You know, we might go to I don't know what world's gonna happen. I'm opening one and a half. I hope we stay there. But if it stays one and a half, Cleveland on the six point teacher looks pretty strong to me. The coaching gaff spectacle that game could be it's worth the

price of admission alone. All Right, we'll come back, we'll do the primetime games, and we'll recap what we like best here guessing lines on a numbers game right here at Vison. Welcome to a numbers game with Kill Alexander. Chrissie Parlay tells me that I forgot one afternoon game? Did I forget one afternoon game? We haven't gotten the prime time games yet? Was I one? Shy? One one more? Actually? Pretty good game? Green Bay after Chargers, Okay, green Bay

six and one, now Chargers three and five. As we mentioned Green Bay with their win over Casey last night, Chargers getting by the Madden Naggy Mitch Drobiskie Eddie Pinero show that is the Bears. Rogers twenty three thirty three last night for three oh five, three touchdowns, no picks, five times sacked in that game, but Aaron Jones man thirteen carries for sixty seven yards, seven catches for one fifty nine and two touchdowns. Packers were eight of thirteen

on third downs. They were down seventeen and fourteen fifteen played drive. UH used most of the third quarter get a tying field goal, then they got the ball back when Lashawn McCoy fumbled on the next play. How many times have I asked Lombardi about how do does la Shawn McCoy carry the ball like that? Get away with it? Of course he and then UH five plays later, talked about Deshaun Watson's amazing play to win that game against the Raiders yesterday. How about that Rogers touchdown pass on

third and three yesterday? Um looked a little luckier than it was good, because I don't think that was his intended receiver, but still right the fact that he got it there. Uh, Packers Uh. Eventually the Chiefs tied the game. Packers then took fifty six seconds to get the would end up being the game winning touchdown. Chargers snapping a three game losing streaking their win against the Bears. Joey

Bosa with two sacks. Um defining sequence probably Casey Hayward Jr. Returning a pick thirty seven yards to the twenty early and the fourth Keenan Allen drops the twenty four yard pass in the end zone. On third down. Chase mcgauklin misses the field goal, but your biscuit gives it right back,

losing a fumble. That Ingram back after missing three games with a hamstring injury recovers for l a. Chargers took over in the Bears for six and then the touchdown catch to Ekeler seventeen sixteen lead, and that held, of course, because as we mentioned, Naggy decides to just not matriculate the ball and settle for an Eddie Panier field which he misses. I'll say Green Bay minus three on the road, it's mostly three. I see a little bit of juice

on the favorite. I'm gonna open three and a half, So folks run down to the south point or get on your app whatever, because I know they can't resist the three and a half when there's threes out there. But I think this game will close three and a half. I was looking at this game before we went on here and a big point. The only thing that saved the Chargers yesterday was the Bears managed to outcharger the Chargers.

So I don't think Green Bay's gonna do that. So I kind of like green Bay in the spot, especially in three. Yeah, well they want to rush and take three and a half on the Chargers, man, I wouldn't rush too hard on that the Chargers, after all, they will, they will. I'm sure you're right. Sunday night, what do you got? Good games? New England had ball? Okay, so here's where now New England obviously eight. No, there's nothing

we can say bad about New England. Tom Brady twenty of thirty six for two nine two touchdowns, no picks. Edelman with eight of those catches for seventy eight for two touchdowns career, regular season and post season for Bill Belichick, only Don Shula, George Hallis had more eight no for the third time Patriots and team history, first time since

when they started ten and oh. They forced a league high twenty five turnovers this season, and they've won twenty one straight games against first or second year signal callers, longest such streak in the NFL. That, of course, is what they did yesterday, uh in their thirteen win over Baker Mayfield, second year quarterback of the Cleveland Browns Baltimore coming off of bye week, this is a stretch now for the New England Patriots. Obviously, we can say nothing

wrong with him, all those stats are amazing. But here's the stretch for New England now, starting with this game at Baltimore on Sunday night. They get at Baltimore, followed by at Philadelphia home against the Cowboys, at the Texans home against the Chiefs at It's a pretty nice five game stretch to figure out how good this football team is. I'll say New England minus four here on the road, it's three and a half and four. I like the three and a half better here. I think there's gonna

be a really, really tough game. I think the fact that Baltimore had the week off, I think really helps them a lot. You're gonna help him enough to win? I don't know, but I think three and app's planning. I think four would it take for me? It just looks a little bit too high, although there's some places I highly respect that I have four out there, and but a lot of three and a half mostly three and a half a little bit before, but like has a couple of LiOD spots. But I'm an open three

and a half. I think that's I think that's planning myself, I really do. Yeah. And how about this story, Adam Schefter, it's like brewing that this could be Tom Brady's last year with the Patriots, kind of under the radar and now who knows. Well, we'll worry about that in another time. But it's interesting story. Yeah, try to tell you something. I don't think Brady looks at that great. I don't think so really, you know, Yeah, we're a little spoiled.

You know. It's like for the Beatles made a song you didn't like, Oh these things you know, No, no, there's still the Beatles. On the other hand. On the other hand, he's lost so many players around him, right, Yeah, I mean it. I don't think he's quite what he was. But listen, that defense is so good. Yeah, still might be enough to win a Super Bowl. Really might Monday night. Yea, yeah, it could be a good game Dallas at the Giant

NFC East. Usually back in the day, this would be just a three point spread and you wouldn't even think about it. Yeah, different now. Daniel Jones yesterday and the Giants lost to the Lions. Good game for Daniel Jones. Forty one for three, twenty two four touchdowns, no picks, sack three times. Sa Kwan sixty four yards on the ground on nineteen carries seventy nine yards or seventy nine yards receiving rather eight catches. Slaton with two scores for

the Giants. There were seven of twelve on third downs, but Pat schermer as I mentioned seven and seventeen straight up now with the New York Giants. The Giants are having a player's only meeting today, everybody players only meeting for the Giants. They've lost four in a row, and the Cowboys coming off by Dallas minus six. I'll say on the road at New York, well, I kind of like your number better, but it's it's seven with juice on the favorite. See a little bit of seven and

a half with Juice on the dog. But you know there's only one seven class. You know most of the seven with Juice on the favorite. I'm gonna open seven, but I think they're gonna lay it to me. You know, like I said, we for those first time listeners, and you do everything at eleven and ten on the board here for straight bets in the NFL. Um excuse, So I'm gonna open seven. I'm sure they're gonna bet me the favorite, but you know I'm gonna need the giants

come Monday night and plus seven. I'm okay with that and gets okay, we'll come back, we'll wrap it up, we'll say what we like best in There are several games to gravitate towards here Week nine guessing lines. Chris Andrew's right here in a Numbers game in visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Gil Alexander. Okay, two minutes or less here Gil Alexander, Jeff Parlay, Chrissie Andrews. I have I like a bunch, which worries me, like San Francisco. If you're only if you're telling me that's

only eight I love them Thursday night at Arizona. I like Miami again for the third straight week. Uh, Jeff likes him out right, but I'll take the points against the Jets. I like Indianapolis. I had that three and a half. I was way off on that line at Pittsburgh, So I like Indie there. I like Carolina. I don't think that's high enough. If you're telling me it's only three and a half. I'll take Carolina hosting the Tennessee Titans.

And the other one I like is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay catching uh nearly a touchdown at Seattle, and I like Cleveland as a teaser leg. But those are the five before that that I really like. Jeff real quick Miami there, and uh, I actually like the Browns to win that game against Denver. They're more talented than the Broncos are. What a show that should be between Fangio and Kitchens. Chrissie, what leaps off the page for you? Way too many games? I have the Niners, I like

the build. I like the Dolphins, Tampa Bay, Green Bay and the Giant Green Bay and the Giants. You like Okay, yeah, that's a lot, and you know what they say there's too many that worries me a great deal. Uh oh yeah, okay, well again, we reserve the right to change all of this between now and the time we make our contest. Yeah. Um, Chris, look, I know you weren't in studio, but um doctor's orders.

We gotta follow those. They love you anyway, So please stay where you need to and whenever you're ready to come in for two hours, whenever that's cleared, then we'll do that when the time is right. I'd love well I see him next Tuesday, So not tomorrow, but next week. I'm hoping he's gives me a pass at that point. Okay, all right, Chrissy, thank you. We'll see you here around the South Park today, I'm sure. Chris Andrew No not today, No, no,

not today. I'm gonna work at home. Maybe tomorrow Chris Andrews. By the way, you can follow him at at Andrew's Sports on Twitter. The name of the book. Then one day available where all books are sold, including Amazon. Then one day all of Chris's great stories from story Time