Beating The Book: 2019 Week 5 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

on Up Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy, it's a numbers game with your host, Kill Alexander. You want tunings to believe in analys It's good Monday morning to at least I oh, it's good for you, Skill Alexander. It is a numbers game right here at Visa Series except Channel two four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app. Yeah, Week four National Football League? What do we know? We know nothing.

We know nothing about anything in the NFL. Hey, there's baseball tomorrow night though, and Wednesday real live baseball is October is here. But man, the National Football League, it's guessing lines, y'all for Week five in the National Football League. We unearthed some value last week, but the real problem was after after Week four guessing lines, I said I liked way too many things, and I know what that means,

carnage for most betters. This weekend, let us bring in the star of guessing lines from l A Ladies and gentlemen. He's the director of the South Point Hotel Casino Sports book. I'm sure he's feeling good about himself this morning. It's Chrissie Andrews. Good morning, Chrissie. Yeah, we had a pretty decent week. You know, pretty decent. No complaints from the bookmakers, define pretty decent. If you would, no, thank you, I don't want to. It's okay, Bragg. Let's just say every prenny.

Any bookmaker crying today, really, And I know we're a specie and known for crying, but you should really. Uh, you're gonna question any bookmaker that's crying this morning. We had a hell of a day. Yeah, you bet. You probably did road dogs seven and one outright not straight up out right? Uh, Philadelphia, going back to Thursday, Caroline at Cleveland, Oakland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and by the way,

most of those weren't even close. The Washington Redskins the only road dog that didn't didn't come through for better. There a whole another story. Uh so that was big, by the way, producing number five. Jeff Parls is back in with us on Mondays. Good morning to Jeffrey, Good morning. It's a it's a it's a pleasure and an honor to be back you just you decided to show up for this. Huh, well, there were there were a lot of things that went into the equation. But I'm here.

I'm thrilled to be here, and it's uh, this is legendary stuff here going on every Monday. Well, we're we're thrilled to have you, Chrissie. Um. Let you know, look seven it in one road dogs. It's a great week for bookmakers, not so good for the books. We're gonna talk to you know, all the contests. I'm curious what one contest this week? Um. The only thing I got right in the end was New Orleans based on our

guessing lines edges last week. But here's the thing, and I'll just start with this macro statement before we get to week five guessing lines, and you tell me, you tell me if you disagree with this one, take all the teams in the NFC and just throw them up in the air. Maybe not Washington, right, Like, take a team like that out, but all the contenders supposedly throw them up in the air, and it's pot luck who

shows up in the super Bowl. I'm as good with my Eagles picked before before the season started as any team. And then the other side of that is it's still the Patriots in the chiefs in the a f C. Let's just play the a f C Championship. Yeah, you know, you were talking about the NFC, but I mean, yeah, other than the top two in the a f C throws all the throw those all up in the air too. I mean, this is wide open. And I say this every year and and it's comes true just about every year,

somebody comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Now that they make the Super Bowl, and not very often, but somebody comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Who's that going to be? I have no idea. I mean, it might be the Giants, it might be Tampa Bay. Uh you know, it might be somebody like that that's completely off our radar at this point. But somebody will come out of nowhere, uh in in either one or both of those conferences to make the playoffs. So right now,

take your best guess. It's it's a crapshoot as far as uh going forward. Who's gonna wind up being you know, maybe not the best team, but the better teams in this in this league. The other thing is NFL is so humbling, right, So you know, tomorrow night again we'll get well, we'll have a baseball segment here in the middle, just update what's going on, uh, setting up the postseason.

But I have it set up at william Hill where I have Milwaukee at tend to one Tuesday night in the NL Wild Card, and I have the Knats at plus one sixty plus one thirty plus one twenty played it like a fiddle. The other thing that I had at william Hill that I've been so smug about are these two Cleveland Browns bets that I have, which is Cleveland over eight and a half wins and to to miss the playoffs plus one, figuring the only way I could lose both is if they win the division at

eight and eight. Well, you look up and here after a quarter of the season, there they are at two and two with the Browns the top the uh the NFC. So there's that that's fun. Good Lord, and the and the entire AFC south to it. So, by the way, so Pete rose El's you know, vision of parody has been taken to the extreme. Shall we start with Thursday night, Christie, let's start there. We can start with Thursday night. Let's

go with let me find my sheets here? Okay, Rams at Seattle, right, Oh, that's pretty good for a Thursday that's too. Three and one, Yeah, three and one against three and one. The Rams lose to the Buccaneers yesterday. Uh, they do so in the highest scoring game of not only the day but the year. Fifty five to forty mp A. Bay goes into the Rams, by the way, not really that close. It got clos ish when Marcus Peters picked off a ball in the uh fourth quarter,

took it to the house, by the way. On a day of vicious hits, that hit that he took uh from the from the Bucks offensive lineman. I believe it was uh Donovan Smith? Was it from the Buccaneers who hit him? That was the most vicious hit of the day of the day that featured hits from Vante's perfect that will get him suspended hit on Josh Allen um, so, it was just that was just brutal. I can't believe he got up and and and walked off after that.

But that was the only time the game really got close. Uh. Jared Goff filled up a statueet forty five sixty five seventeen, two touchdowns but three picks and a game deciding fumble. People think I'm crazy when I said he should have been the first example of a quarterback on a rookie contract for a great team that just got recycled. They should have never I just don't believe that money should have been paid to him. Hundred thirty four million. Lombardi

agrees with me. By the way, but the Rams did have a five They had five one yards of offense, but it's all in you know, frantic catchup mode. They had twenty eight rushing yards. Chrissie on the ground. Girly was five for sixteen on the ground. He did catch seven for fifty four, but tell me that's not still a thing with the Rams. They had thirteen penalties for

a hundred and six yards. By the way, our friend Ralph Michaels tells us that the number of NFL games with over ninety points since two thousand, that was only the eighth such occurrence. Uh this game yesterday. Uh so Rams lose that one in Seattle. They get by Arizona and they do so sort of been ho hum fashion. Chris Carson one oh four for one oh four, He didn't fumble. Seahawks scored two touch ends by early in the second quarter, one on Jenevian Clowneys pick off return

for a touchdown. So Seattle just ruled by Arizona and their game twenty having at ten they cover is five and a half point favorites. Put that all in the wash. I don't think the public perception of Seattle is still that of there's of of the Rams. Let's say so, I don't say it's a full field goal. It's a short week. I'll just split the difference between to pick them and the three, and I'll say it's Seattle by one and a half. Yeah, you know, it's kind of

like your number better. But right now I'm seeing both sides the favorite, but mostly pick them or Seattle one. I'm opening Seattle one and tell your true right, see any one and a half, I'm gonna go up there, very very tough home team, and you know, Russell Wilson, this kid just keeps women a lot of football games, you know. I mean they weren't dazzling yesterday. I think

a lot of that has to do with Arizona. I guess we'll get to them a little bit later on, you know, but I think they deserve to be a favorite at home. I don't think we could go to the full three, but I'm definitely opening to Seattle one. And like I said, if I see it higher, I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go a little bit higher. I like this team, and this is a very viable team, definitely in the playoff hunt. And I don't know how far they could go into NFC, but they could go

pretty far. I mean, this is a this is a team that if they made the Super Bowl, I don't think I'd be totally shot. Yeah, and all and all really does come down to Russell Wilson. Done it. With him, all things are possible. It's you know, there's so few really great quarterbacks and he is definitely on the shortlist. Just makes plays after plays, week after week, year after year. Uh So, Okay, so I had Seattle one and a half. You say it's more Seattle so what's the consens. What

are you putting it at. I'm gonna put up Seattle one. Probably at this point I say the contents pick them, but I'm gonna go with Seattle one. I favored that side. Like I said that, this is still a really good home team, and I know it didn't show last week with the uh with a Packer. I do think the home teams have a little bit of an advantage in these Thursday night games. I don't have the members and

farm me to prove that. I'm sure somebody does, but I kind of like these home teams on a short week, and I think Seattle's should be a slight favorite two weeks in a row. No though, with a good Thursday night match up Philly Green Bay last week and now Seattle on the Rams. All right, let's do some Sunday Morning.

What you got Sunday Morning? Ravens at the Steelers. Okay, So nothing surprised me more than that Brown's destruction of the Ravens yesterday, not because the Browns won, but just the manner in which they won forty to five, and again a game that really kind of wasn't all that close. Um, Baltimore loses it forty five. They do so at seven point home favorites. Lamar Jackson held here thirty four for two forty seven, three touchdowns, two picks, sacked four times.

He did get sixty six yards on the ground on nine carries. That ended a run of two passes without a pick for him when the Browns first picked him off yesterday, but they were down seventeen to end, the Ravens were moving for the potential tying score. That's when mark Ingram had the ball pride loose by Jermaine Whitehead and Chad Thomas recovered the Cleveland twenty six, Baltimore's first turnover turn over the season, and that's really when the

game sort of changed at that point. Never got close after that. Browns immediately went the other way, grabbed the two touchdown advantage late in the third quarter two yard run by Chub second straight week. Baltimore now has yielded more than five hundred yards five hundred thirty last week, this week total, So that's two weeks in a row. So who they beat? They beat the Dolphins and then they got by the Cardinals. So our perception of the Ravens here in two weeks time, even though we knew

we'd we figured they didn't really beat anybody. Uh, sort of down the drain here real quick again. They're tied with Cleveland at two and two early season. On top of the a f C North Browns had ten plays Chrissie of at least sixteen yards in that game. Ten plays of at least sixteen yards there at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh hasn't played. They placed Cincinnati tonight. Uh, Pittsburgh is three point favorites at home tonight Monday at football against the Bengals.

So I would imagine sight unseen, barring the unforeseen. We already have Mason Rudolph at starting quarterback for Pittsburgh. It's not as if Big Ben could go down. Um, I would imagine it's Baltimore by a little more than a field goal, I'll say three and a half on the road at Pittsburgh. I see one three and a half, but I see mostly four. I gotta I mean, I

know I'm a little biased sports Pittsburgh. But Baltimore. You just said they gave up five hundred yards twice, and uh, you know, maybe they're not quite I had them like that. Go Chris, He's watching videos I think on my one feed. Uh. Anyway, um, I think I like the three and a half a little better. Just you know, I don't know what they expect out of Pittsburgh, can I You know, I don't think any of us do. We've been going back and forth between three and a half, uh and three and

three and a half on tonight scame so uh. I'm not sure how much we'll gauge out of a game against Cincinnati either by unless they really get up pretty good. I'm gonna open three and a half. I think that's okay. And a lot of it is just my lack of confidence in the Ravens, who we had as clearly I thought the third best team in the A f C. Now I'm nowhere near sure that at all. I don't know who the third best team would be, but I'm

not sure it's them, that's that's for sure. Yeah. Just throw them all up a five three yards they gave up to the Chiefs last week. No, no shame in that it's the Chiefs, but five thirty to the Browns. Who I mean the Browns. This is the thin line in the NFL, right If the Browns lose that game, yesterday, they're one in three and Chrissy, we're burying them. We're burying them if they lose yesterday, Right, one and three, all this hype, stop talking, Baker maybe another two and

two tied for the top of the division. So um, there's that. That's the NFL. I love this league. I mean, were you know, and I know, God knows, we as bookmakers lose occasionally, but you know, it's just such a topsy turvy league that uh, you know, you really think you have a gauge on everything, and everything just goes right out the windows soon the Sunday start. Never know what's gonna happen. Barley, didn't I say that? Right before the show? I said, do you imagine how great sports

books have it? The most popular sport by far right is the NFL, and it's the one where we have the least clue about that. You said, you said it twice. Yeah, it was. It was such an important point and it's al and and that is why it's nice to be you, Chris. Let's do one more here before the break. Early on. By the way, I remember hearing this yesterday because Andrew Siciliano ended the red Zone with this. There are ten early games next week and just two afternoon games. Is

that right, Chris? I hate that that, but you know, I don't know. All right, let's do one more the truth. Yeah, okay, Uh, Chicago and Oakland at London. Chicago to Oakland at London. Brent Musburger headed to London. Uh, that is why we're all sort of filling in for him this week. Go my guys in the desert. I'm doing my guys today, Chrissie. I'll try not to. I'll try not to, try not to wreck the ship tonight. Uh, this afternoon, I'm sure I will be. Uh. Chicago three and one. They beat

the Vikings and beat him good. Yesterday Chicago gets the home win with Chase Daniels as a quarterback win for the Bears as Mitch Robinsky went down the first series of the game, knocked out on the opening possession with a left shoulder injury. That's his non throwing arm got pinned awkwardly under his body, ball popped out. But that was the end of Trabisky and Daniel the rest of the way, twenty two of thirty for one, one touchdown, no picks, Bears time of possession advantage, over the Vikings

yesterday thirty five minutes, thirty three to twenty seven. They held Dalvin Cook did the Bears defensive thirty five yards on fourteen attempts. That's after he ran for at least a hundred ten in his first three games. By the way, that's even though they didn't have a Cheam Hicks with a knee injury Roquan Smith for personal reasons. They both missed the game. Big Big just sort of dominant possession,

dominant perform in Chicago. Outgained the Vikings one two to fifty nine in the first half, held the Vikings to just two possessions eleven minutes and one seconds of possession in the first half, just two possessions. I believe the first half that had five total possessions, but I' mistaken. And then there's Oakland. Good for Oakland because we all wanted to bury Oakland, and somehow they're two and two.

They got the win over Denver week one, which doesn't look all that great, but they go into Indie and they really popped him in the mouth from the beginning. Derek car led the Raiders to touchdowns on three of their first four drives. Eric Harris with the late interception thirty yards who are touchdown to secure the thirty one

to twenty four win outright over Indianapolis. They had produced just two scoring drives had the Raiders in their previous eighteen possessions before they started this game with scoring possessions of three of their first four. They had lost two straight by eighteen or more points, and they had this trip to London looming, so they went in there. They had to get a win. They did um and their second half start sixteen play drive for Oakland consumed nine

minutes and twelve seconds yesterday. One of the big themes yesterday was these long, ridiculous drives in so many games. Oakland had one nine minutes and twelve seconds, ended with the short field goal gave the Raiders to ten lead. They did have their penalties, that's the Raiders thing. Eleven for eighty uh two key turnovers um for Indianapolis. They fumbled at the Oakland sixteen. That's the thing. All of this game would have been different for these two turnovers.

Chris a fumble at the Oakland sixteen yard line with three forty six left in the second quarter when the Colts were down twenty one to ten, and they were coming in and make it a one score game, and then that interception I mentioned with two and nine left when they were down just twenty four to seventeen. UM.

So that's the story with both of those teams. This is in London, um, and I've got, you know, even with the London part of things, which sort of neutralized by the way, it's technically an Oakland Raiders home game, but it's in London. I got Chicago minus six in this game. You're a little bit high. I see as low as four and a half, as high as five and a half, um, London four and a half. Yeah, yeah, the pound I know is falling pretty good with Brexit. So I'm gonna go with four and a half. I

think I thought Oakland looked pretty good. And of course we didn't even mentioned Trabisky is gonna be out for a while. How does that matter to the number, And I don't think so. I think Chase Daniel looks at least so far, at least as good as Trabinsky. But I'm gonna go with four and a half in this game. I think the public might come in on on Oakland. I just see this as a very tough defensive battle. Uh even yesterday Chicago. Listen, they won, they won handily.

The score probably not completely indicative of how much they dominated that game. Prening points are gonna be hard to come by in this game, and I hate to give either side too many points. Somebody goes four and a half, and I think I like that a little bit better. I think you're probably right that is a better number. And what I mean by the London discount and follow me here is I actually think if this game is in Oakland, it's worse off for the Raiders. So I

think the travel across the sea sort of neutralizes everything. Right. I think we all agree the Bears are a better football team with that defense than the Raiders are. But imagine, I mean, if you played this game in tim Buck two, right the lore the further you go, the more it neutralizes h any advantage for the better team. So I think that it probably does get knocked down to four and a half. That would make sense to me. By

the way, how about the Vante's perfect thing? Since I brought it up earlier, he was ejected season might be done for the Yeah, recentivist is what he is. He was ejected early in the second quarter after being called for unnecessary roughness helmet to helmet collision with Jack Doyle. And the thing about it was even before this is not funny, but with perfect somehow it's sort of just

sort of shake your head. Even before the refs got Novac announced of the crowd that the replay review was determined. Berfeck was jogging into the locker room. He's like, yeah, I did that. I'm done, So he was. He's had eleven fines and suspensions in seven seasons. That's what Cincinnati before joining the he when he negotiates his contract, you know, well, you know I'm gonna get tied to I gotta built that and build that into my salary. I don't know.

Maybe yeah. That was one where just you know, a lot of these were like, well, you know, it's football, you don't have really time to react. That one seemed like he had time to sort of make a different decision. Um, so he was out of there. So okay, Chicago minus four and a half at London. Brent Musburger on his way to London for that one next week. Uh is

that an early Is that an early time? What's the what's the kickoff for that Jeff that game, oh so, but but not early early, not like those old six am Pacific things that we had to like get up four and watch streaming. Okay, all right, so that's part of the ten am games one pm Eastern. We'll come back. We'll do more. Week five lines Chris Andrews, the director of the South Point Hotel Casino. Of course, at Andrew's Sports is where you can follow him on Twitter. We'll

come back, We'll do more. Right here on a numbers game at Vista. Welcome back to a numbers game, Kill Alexander. A numbers game brought you by the bet MGM app. Doesn't matter of fact, proud sponsors of the show getting

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By the way, Shanatva to everybody celebrating New Year today, including Terrico and Eddie Goldmen of the Chicago Bears, Happy New Year to that. Oh wait what they're not tribesman? Oh, I'm sorry I didn't get the memo. Chrissy. Uh. Chris Andrews is with us from l A. Chris, how are you feeling, By the way, How's how's everything going with the book? I think the book's doing well, you know, I only get these quarterly reports, you know, but the

response on Twitter has been really positive. I mean, everybody that gets the book loves it, and I can tell you, um so uh if if you haven't gotten it, yet, what's wrong if you go out there and get on a book crowd, what's come on? Uh, it's called It's called and then one day and then one day and get it on Amazon. Uh you know, just uh for my Twitter, I have a pin tweek where you could just uh you know, click on that and will take

you right to the site you can order it. And uh yeah, I mean so far the reviews have been excellent. The guys that have read it. I loved it, and uh, you know, so I think it's doing pretty well. I'm very happy with it. You make those you write those kind of books. You know you're not gonna make a fortune out of it, but you do it to connect with people, and I think I'm connected with a lot of people. I think it's been very successful in that sense. I was trying to make you a fortune, Chrissy on

top of it. But it is a great book. And and last week, uh, last week your story that Curtis gives me, I'm sorry the many Curtis gives me a check for a million dollars, I won't say wow, yeah, I really I didn't really expect this is really planning on this, Anthony. But I'll take it. Yes, last week a million? Is that? Yeah? Last week your story? Uh, I am now a Sekh warrior. That's one of the

great stories ever. Didn't make the book, didn't make a previous story Time on Beating the Book podcast Guessing Lines, Um, that might have been a top tenor Chris, that was great. That story, it's a great one. And uh, you know, I'll kind of tell you off the year why I didn't make the book. Okay, I don't want to mention her. So there's a story behind the story. There's the story had a story often times that would be one of them.

So you know, uh, but you know, I'm starting Guiden coming up to me and reminding me of some other things. And I've been taking notes, and I'm thinking, I know I might have enough for a second book, you know, I don't know. But but to go out and buy this one, everybody, don't wait for that, that's right. Let's let's buy this one first and then one day available

where all books are sold, including Amazon. I just want to reiterate one point, not the Eddie Goldman Tariko and shut out to a happy New Year's part of this, but the the you know, let's just take the NFL.

As we were saying, like no one knows anything. One of the things that I think is key is, you know, take that Colt's Raiders outcome that we talked about, and I don't want to gloss over the point I made the Colts fumble that ball late in the second quarter on their way you know, to the house, maybe to the house at least a field goal down to ten end of the second quarter, and then the pick six late in that game. The Colts only end up losing

by seven points in the end. Excuse yeah, seven points four, So the perception, you know, look, hey, Raiders went in there beat him. They scored three out of their first four possessions. You wonder, I mean, does anybody I guess the takeaway from that game. I guess what I'm suggesting is I still don't think the Raiders are that good, right, and so the four and a half, despite the travel to London seems light to me. Khalil Mack probably makes

three you ridiculous plays in this game in London. Yeah, listen, I went through this when I was briefly working I was working for the Calneia technically, but when William Hill was behind them and they're trying to make up some algorithms in order to do in game wagering, uh, you know, on the NFL or in football in general. And you know, I explained to them because they're really kind of certainly at that point they were very foreign to the NFL football.

And I was starting to tell him that's that's the weird thing about football. You can have first in gold, it might wind up being seven. The other way, you're going the wrong pick six and forget about it. And I mean, how do you put that in an algorithm? You know, I don't know. And they were having a lot of trouble with their in game not so much watching the game that they honestly don't understand that well, but trying to formulate in an equation that was a

good predictor. And I'm sure there are some that are some predictor zone are better than others. I'm sure that. But this game is just so crazy that, you know, it's it's hard to to get to get a gauge on exactly what will happen, forget about what has happened, you know, how are you going to gauge that? I mean, it's it's very very difficult which is, uh, you know why the bookmakers love it and uh, you know the

Benning public loves it too. But but it's very hard to predict, you know, before the game, in the game, now, I said, even after the game you go back and analyze, there's a lot of what I couldn't shouldas and that that's in almost every game in the NFL. That's right, unless you have access to the turnovers in the final box score, nothing really is that much of a sure thing. All right, let's do a couple more here, Chris, what's next Sunday morning? Okay, we've got Arizona at Cincinnati. Oh,

I really, there's not much to say here. Cincinnati hasn't played there at Pittsburgh tonight at three point dogs Arizona's oh three and one. Ze Gonzalez missed a couple of field goals yesterday from forty three and forty eight. For the Cardinals, they've given up six touchdowns to opposing tight ends. That is a theme that I have stated once before on this show, but it's also in fantasy players. Cardinals

not good against the posing tight ends, uh distantly. Team high seven catches for fifty seven yards against the Cardinals yesterday in the Cardinals laws at home to the uh Seahawks ten. And I really don't know what we've figured out about Kyler Murray quite yet, Chris, And be honest with you, Choppy is how I would sort of rate his performance thus far. I don't think they can be that upset with it. I don't think they can be that happy with his performance. I'll just say Cincinnati sight

unseeing the placeholder should be three in this game. That's higher. It's four and a half, and that's almost a universal number from what I'm looking at. I do kind of like that. Um, you know, I hate to say, I kind of expect a decent performance out of Cincinnati. Can I win or lose at Pittsburgh? You know? So I think the four Napps Okay, you know you'll I've said this before. I don't want to root against anybody, especially like these rookies coming into the league, uh, because I

want the league to thrive. I want them to just do well and everybody wants a bet at every game. But I said it about Kyler Murray and just that the kid is just too small and uh, and I said it about their coach and why is Klingsbury an NFL coach, you know, so I'm kind of anti Arizona and you know, you know Murray, you know, he's just too little. I mean I've seen him back there and they were comparing him to Russell Wilson. Listen, Russell Wilson. I think it was like a one enough million kind

of guy. He's a terrific quarterback and Kyler Murray has to take these huge deep drops Kennon to see over his own lineman. I think it was a terrible choice by Arizona to pick him number one. Listen. Murray made the right decision financially. I think the game thirty five million or whatever it was where the Oakland A's we're gonna get him five million. So for him himself personally, right decision, but for the NFL, for Arizona, I think it was a very bad decision to have him raided

so highly. And there was some I hate to use the word political correctness, but there was like a correctness too to not knock Kyler Murray going into the draft. Like if you if you thought like me, you know, people were saying, oh, you're just a cave man, you don't understand the new NFL, and the way it works, and we protect the quarterbacks and it's a much faster game all that. You know, maybe a little, but not that much. I mean you still you know they talked

about Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Those are those are aberrations, and this kid, I just don't think has it. I said, I don't want to root against them, but I don't mind betting against him. I canna tell you that I had Seattle and All my contest as one of my top picks, so I've definitely anti Arizona at this point. I thought, I love Cincinnati so much, but I think four and Apps a decent places start. By the way, that was the first game that featured two starting quarterbacks

shorter than six ft. And I think a generation if I'm not mistaken. I'm not sure when the last year was, but you don't see that very often. And I think, you know, listen, as I heard you saying that, Yeah, part of me said to myself, Christy's captain caveman. But the other part of me said, the main part of

my brain said, I think you're right. I think you're right about most of that um that Russell Wilson is and Drew Brees, Drew Brees if they want, when they put the camera behind Drew Brees, and Drew Brees is what listed at six feet I believe. But when they put the camera behind him, it is amazing that he completes any pass, let alone being a Hall of Famer, right, it's just incredible. It's like, how did he complete that?

And he just he just has this amazing football sense and a knowledge of his offense and whereas receivers are gonna be and he's just he's one of a kind. Russell Wilson does it with his legs as well, and that's just the exception at that height, with those monsters all over the football field. But Cincinnati minus four and a half is the number. I can totally see it being that. If Cincinnati comports, you know, it plays well tonight, I can see it going down to three if Cincinnati

gets destroyed tonight. Let's put it that way. So I don't have a problem with with either one. All right, Let's do another one. Jacksonville like Carolina, jackson Bell like Carolina. Well, this this ends up being an okay kind of game. Uh yeah, two expansion teams at the same time, Jacksonville, Carolina both two and two. Now Carolina, by virtue of their win over Houston will get to Houston because I have no clue what Houston does from week to week.

But Carolina wins at sixteen to ten. One of those dogs on the road, one of those road dogs, that one outright. Uh they win sixteen ten despite perhaps Kyle Allen's fumbles yesterday. Um, Jacksonville, good Lord, where do we

start with this? Jacksonville yesterday? Let's start with Jacksonville. Jacksonville hundred and fourteen first half yards yesterday in the first half, okayve hundred fourteen yards six points, then in the second half north of three hundred uh points for Jacksonville and twenty points for Jacksonville in the second half in their UH six to twenty four come from behind or she said, come from a come from behind, come from a head, come from behind win over Denver Leonard four net twenty

nine carries two d twenty five yards career high that included an eighty one yard or they went in on Josh Lambo's thirty three yard field goals time expired. They did have twelve penalties for a hundred four yards, but their time of possession domination over the Broncos yesterday thirty nine, twelve to twenty minutes and forty eight seconds. They fell behind Denver by two touchdown, seventeen to three, and in the day of long sustained drives, Jacksonville had two of them.

A ten minute, twenty four second drive that led that started the third quarter that cut the lead to seventeen to thirteen, then a seven minute drive that led to a field goal gave them a twenty three to seventeen lead. In the fourth quarter, Flacco matriculated for the Broncos to get a touchdown and that led to that final drive for Jacksonville, by the way, which was aided by another roughing the passer uh penalty on the Broncos. Will get to them, Caroline, as I said. Kyle Allen twenty or

thirty four for two thirty two. He was sacked three times, three fumbles in his third career start, second this season in place of Cam Newton. Texans were only able to get points out of the last one of those fumbles, though, and Christian mccraff. Christian McCaffrey continues to be everything. Twenty nine carries, twenty seven carries rather for ninety three yards

a touchdown, ten receptions for eight six Jacksonville Carolina. It's probably more than a field goal, just because it's still Garden Minshew, A Gardner Minshew, it's still a rookie quarterbacks as well as he's played, but it is Kyle Allen that that obviously mitigates it as well. I just think the perception of Carolina is that much better. So I'm gonna say it's four. Letna say it's Carolina minus four, just perception wise, and three and a half. In a matter of fact, I see three and a half the

guys that used juice juice on the dog. Um. You know, of course i'd say it every week here it's outpoint. Everything's eleven and ten on straight pits off the board and football. Um, so we're gonna open three and a half. You know, I really I liked Kyle Allen. I was looking through this QBR and er my notes forty three point nine. I though I'd be a little bit higher than that, and uh, you know Jacksonville Berner Minshew, he was forty one point one. So anyway, quarterbacking probably about even.

But I mean Leonard Fournette this. This is finally the Leonard four nette. I think that we somewhat expected to see in the NFL. I mean, he was dominanting. But I think it's a really good game. I think both these teams looked pretty decent to me. Uh, you said three, I really kind of like your number better, but I don't want to mess around with the three at this point said four. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I haven't went the other way. Uh, I'd like three and a half.

I could see this game one of three though. I think a lot of money showed on Jacksonville yesterday, and that was one of those games where I was scratching my head. I'm not sure why everybody's Ononville so heavily, but they were, and they were having out me right, And I was at a bet on jackson mild or bet again. I was gonna say, it's the fate of Denner. Yeah, yeah, I'm not positive it could be either one, you know,

but definitely Jacksonville. We've talked about it before. If you bet against Jacksonville, they take away your wives get cards. I don't know if that applies this year. That certainly has in years passed, but I've been open three app. I think three apps okay, but I wouldn't be surprising this game goes closer than three by post that we'll get to the Broncos. And I just want to say this, Chris,

because Denver was one of my Circus Sports picks. If I bet on Denver again this year, you have permission to slap me in the neck. Seriously, just come up to me. Don't say anything, Just walk up to me, say nothing, and just slap me in the neck because it's just it's pure hell. I have no idea, and I say it before, and I'm like, I can't now catch a shot at me. A quarter in when I see the Flacco face and I remember that I'm betting on him, but it's a Flacco fangio sort of ken

yella and it has not gone well. So we'll get to them momentarily. We'll come back, we'll take a break, we'll do some more Week five guessing lines again. Hopefully you're guessing along with us. It's an interactive game UH nod to the old Stardust Guessing line show. The first sort of salvo at the upcoming week's NFL lines give you your first UH start to your handicapping week if you will, and hopefully you can find an edge within the process. Will come back more with Chris Andrews right

here on a numbers game at Visa. Keep it right here for more of a numbers game with Bill Alexander. How much do I love October? Football? On the weekend? Baseball playoffs starting Tomorrow's best month of the year, sports fans, sports betting, all the above. Let's just more Week five guessing lines, Christy, let's sneak a couple more in what do you got next? By the way, hockey opens on Wednesday, to let me not sleep on that. That's right hockey,

you know, no, you know, that's that's you know. There's a couple of trends of scenes since I kind of got back into business. Uh well, that's one lot of hockey action, and I can see why I've been a hockey fan my whole life. So that starts Wednesday too, so that you're right, it's great, great sports time here. Okay, we've got the Vikings at the Giants. Vikings at the Giants.

We mentioned all about the Vikings Kirk Cousins yesterday and they're lost by the way to the Bear sixteen to six, a game that was perhaps not as close as sixteen to six. Indicates Kirk Cousins twenty seven of thirty six for two thirty three, no touchdowns. Note pis sacked six times and once again Chris a fumble that led to a Chicago field goal at the outset of the second half. That was a big sort of inflection point of the game where you're like, yeah, this isn't gonna happen. Span

Digs was his perhaps one safety valve. Seven catches a hundred eight yards. But it's Kirk Cousins and an eighty four million dollar contract, and every Redskin fan is sort of sitting there and nodding their head like, yeah, it's kind of kind of what it is. Now here's the thing, you know, the Redskins. Are the Redskins better off or not having them? No, obviously not, but it's this weird thing in the NFL. And I alluded to it with

Jared goffer Leer. If you're not a Hall of Famer or you're not an overperformer on a rookie contract where you can pay handsomely to other positions on the team, I e. Sort of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks when they won the Super Bowl and probably should have won

more than one. You're not winning super bowls, right, So these middle ground quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, like Jared Goff, these teams end up having to make these massive decisions, whether it's the Redskins or the Vikings with Cousins, whether it's the Rams who who decided what they decided with the Jared Goff and through a hundred thirty four million

on them. The NFL is sort of a screwy league like that now, where teams the way that it's structured, they've got to make these massive financial decisions on guys that probably are going to lead them to middling playoffs success, you know, as as a ceiling. So that's where the Vikings are right now. They're two and two, and then there's the Giants who are two and two. By the way, if I told you before the season, this is to

a game between two two and two teams. Daniel Jones not so great yesterday three thirty one for two, twenty five one touched on two picks. But the Giants played the Skins. They out first down to the Skins, if you will, twenty four to eight. They held the Skins to a hundred and seventy six total yards fifty five on the ground. Both teams had four turnovers. We just a mess of a game. Again. The time of possession

thing was such a theme yesterday. Thirty six o nine to twenty three fifty one in favor of the Giants. Wayne Gallman two touchdowns uh In uh In uh se Kwan Barkley Stead there Ja Bill Preppers, Jabill Jabril Peppers rather scored on a thirty two yard interception return. Giants three over the Skins yesterday. The only road dog the Skins that didn't win out right, if you could believe that Minnesota minus four and a half, I guess on the road at the Giants will be more than three,

it will be less than seven. I'll say four and a half. Very good. That's exactly what I'm gonna open it. I see nothing happened five. I definitely like the four and a half better. You know, I'm with you on Cousins. I mean, boy, that's I mean. We'll go into this a little bit later on some other teams, but you know, the Giants. I think the Giants to have a chance to improve, and you talked about Daniel Jones. Where's my notes here? He had a pretty good QBR, which is

a different way to look at things. I'm not always married to it, but I think it's a good way to look at things. Seventy three point three was his QBR. Very impressive for a kid really making just his second start. Uh. Anyway, but I was kind of impressed with him. I'm not very impressed with Minnesota. I mean, they really want to run the ball in awful lot, and if they have to allow on cousins, I'm not sure it's there. So I see four and alfter five. I definitely like the

four and a half better. And I think Giants pretty viable dog in this game. I wouldn't be surprised of season some money showing the Giants here. All right, let's do one more. Oh you'll love this one. New England at Washington. Needless to say, I do this was guvy. By the way. How about Redskins at Dolphins next week? That should be fun? Oh man, yeah, yeah, So the Patriots are gonna be five, and when the Redskins are gonna be owin five, let's get that out of the way. Um,

Patriots first four and oh start in four years. They entered not having allowed a touchdown rushing or passing. They entered the game against Buffalo or a point in the first half. Both of those streaks came to an end. Patriots sixteen points were scored as a result of Bills miskews all sixteen of their points. Patriots winned on the road, sixteen to ten, and there was the big knockout of Josh Allen late in that game. The Bills were none too pleased with that, and uh so Matt Barkley was

left to finish for the Bills. So we don't know how that would have ended otherwise, But the Patriots get to win. Tom Brady forty five. Speaking of you, said, qb Are, how about a passer rating which is scored out a one fifty eight point three Tom Brady forty five point nine passer rating sixth lowest of his career three point eight yards per attempt, worst of his career.

But then there's the Redskins Jake Gruden thirty eight and one now lifetime Dwayne Haskins Jr. Uh nine for seven seen one oh seven, no touchdowns, three picks, one of them wasn't his fault. Thirty two point eight passer rating, but you know that was better than Case Kingdom's pass the rating of twenty three point seven. They were two of eleven where the Redskins and they're lost to the Giants on third downs I mentioned a hundred seventy six

total yards. They're also a mess in penalties, right twelve or fifty eight? I mentioned they got you know, the time of possession twenty three fifty one in that game

against the Giants. And then the Skins like they have injuries every week and we've barely started the season, right, So Chase Realier the knee injury, their center Brandon Schuff didn't play his ankle, Terry McLaurin was a scratch with his hamstring, Jordan Reed is never sitting the field again with a concussion, and so West Martin, their rookie guard by the way, made his NFL debut starting for suff So the Riskins are a mess. Uh. The Patriots by

seventeen and a half. How about that? Now you're a little high by the way time like qbrs. You know what, let me find where was Brady ten point three that scored out of a And I don't have always qbr out of a hundred. That is just off when the I mean, he did not look good. But you know, I gotta give some credit that at Buffalo Defense. But I'm sure we'll get to them a little bit later too. Uh. You know you're a little bit high. You know. It's the anti redskin bias, uh that you have that which

is very Justifie. It's just like a completely just afiable. What is it fifteen and a half? Where I see some fifteen I'm gonna open fifteen and a half pots Patriots? Why why is it anything less than I mean, I don't know. I thought it you'd be seventeen anyway, that's kind of from there. But I'm gonna with fifteen and a half. Yeah, and I think if by seeing higher, I'm gonna go higher. Boy, this Washington team, uh you know,

and uh you said it last week. It was like a life sentence when the thirty five year old Daniel Snyder bought this team. There there's there's there's no light the end of the time. I don't think there is with this guy. I think it's just gonna be one screw up after another and milking the fans and the NFL for all we can for every every dollar you can lie his pocket with. I just you know how they left these guys in the league in the first place.

But I guess it's hard to judge the thirty five year old, but he's been a jured from day one. He really has been. And uh, you know what am I gonna say. I'm a Pirates fan, so I know how it is how people, the owners coming and just milk the public out every penny they can get with no intention of ever improving the team. And that's exactly what you have in Washington. Uh, seventeen and a halfs a better number. I'm sorry, that's a way too low. It really is. And I know it's an anti redskin

bias because of self loathing. But but that's gonna come to me. I'm pretty sure about that. We'll find out if it will as the week, progressives will come back. I do want to make a baseball note, because the playoffs are starting. We'll talk about that, and I'll ask Chrissy about some interesting sort of uh non intuitive numbers on these playoff numbers, if you will. We'll get to that momentarily, and then we'll resumed guessing lines. It's a numbers game right here at and stick around sport for

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night after night. That's what we markets for everything at Bookmaker got e slash gill. It's a numbers game, kil Alexander want to believe in our number two guessing lines week five right here in the National Football League, I'm a numbers game here at Vison. Happy New Year to those who uh celebrate such things today. Um, not only am I at work, I'm doing double header today, sitting in for Brett, Uh for Brent Musburger, my guys in

the desert. So uh, just parlay if I could just say this, make sure my mother is not listening today, because it would be bad news for me if she she knows I'm on the air twice Gil, you're my leading today. Just don't let my mother know that I'm on the air. And by the way, on young kipor ten days from now, please don't let my mother know or higher power for that matter, that both me and Wishnett will be in for k. That's really the worst. Christie Andrews is here to guess some lines before we

get back to week five. Chris, let me ask you by the little baseball note that I mentioned before the break, which is just sorting thing thing, that the Nationals are minus one seventy eight minus one seventy nine somewhere in that pocket. Um tomorrow night, because it's Max Shures on the hill shows are, by the way, who has not been as good lately as it has been earlier in the season. Brandon Woodruff going for the Brewers, who have

just been on fire down the stretch. But then when we get to the to the south point and l Tenant numbers, you see that the Brewers are actually the shorter shot. Is that just the liability question there for you? Yeah, definitely, And uh, you know it's listen, we'll be taking action on this baseball for about eleven months now, so we're all over the place. Yes, that's a liability issue and probably not a reflection of the true odds going in here.

So I'll probably have to make some adjustments today. Uh, you know, once I get off the flowing here and started looking at things a little more closely. But that's where we were mostly again because of action. I love that. That sounded more like now that you mentioned it to me, you know, maybe when I come in there, I should Yeah, yeah, all right, Well, so that's interesting and I cannot wait for baseball. Cannot wait. And it's a rocking chair game

for me. As I said, we set it up, I hope numbers game listeners followed all that stuff and we're saying, Hey, there, the Nationals are available over William Hill at plus money to win the wild game. Hey, the Brewers attended. When I hope everybody, uh you set themselves up as well for this. Um. But you know what's interesting about by the way, yes, go ahead, oh or the side. A good friend of mine is a big baseball fan. Uh sent me this book when you knew I was gonna

be spending. And by the way, I've had so many people send me books now that i'm you know, under doctor's care. Anyway, this one I think would be interesting to you. And that's so far. I'm only two chapters in. But a History of BA Baseball in ten pitches, mhm, very interesting book. And I'm not getting anything for this. I'm just giving the book a plug by Tyler Keptner and uh it's started the first chapters on the slider, second chapters on the fastball. And that's where I'm at

right now. Really a good book for a baseball fan, I'd say, uh, you know, kind of a must buy. Should get this one, okay. And by the way, once the wild Card games get through Tuesday and Wednesday, just for those who want to know the schedule, St. Louis

at Atlanta game one Thursday. That's followed by the winner of the n L wild Card game against the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine that's also a Thursday game, and then Friday quadruple header nationally game two's or games too if you want to pluralize correctly, and then the Ale Minnesota at the Yankees and whoever wins the ALE wild Card

game at Houston. So Baseball playoffs finally meaningful baseball games after so long without really anything of uh, you know, with the exception of a few teams that were in races, not real import Otherwise, let us continue with Week five guessing lines so far of the games we've done. We'll recap these at the end. But I think I like the Bears if they're only given four and a half at London against the Raiders. I definitely like the Patriots if it's only fourteen and a half against the Skins.

Um Jesus, that's what we're gonna it could be. It could be twenty and a half, and I might play it. Listen, here's the problem. As we just mentioned ten and road Dogs yesterday seven and one straight up, So it's not fun laying points anywhere, but those two leap to mind so far. Anyway, let's do let's do another one, Chris, what's next? Yeah, not much on this one. Jets at the Eagles. Uh, you know, there's a question mark that Donald might be back for the Jets. So there's very

few numbers. I only get a couple out there, but the Jets at the at the Eagles. Yeah, Sam Donald recovering from the mononucleosis. And again, mono nucleosis is something that folks recover from. But if you're playing a contact sport, there are ramifications of regarding your spleen. You cannot have that hampered in any way ruptured, uh, because then it would be life threatening. So we don't know if it's

Sam Donald. We don't know if it's looked Falk, but it's the Jets who were coming off a by playing the Eagles, who will have extra rests, and they played Thursday night against the Packers. It's double digits. I guess, you know, I would just sort of throw ten and a half out there. I'm guessing that might be short though. If I say ten and a half, yeah, I canna say. I'll want to see a few numbers, but fourteen is what it's looking like, and that's even four team I

think right now. That's the big question mark. Is he playing or not? I mean, listen, I don't think he's exactly set the world on fire, but it looks pretty good. And Luke Falk, you know, boy, I don't know. I think there's some pretty big question marks around that kid at this point. But I'm gonna open fourteen to be extremely conservative on taking any action in this Meeme, so

just leaving a dad. I think the Eagles come off a huge win on Thursday night, so Jets are coming off of by the Eagles are coming off a Thursday game, so they have that's true risk too. So I don't know. I don't know what would help the Jets in this case. Garnald, I guess certainly would, but I'm gonna open fourteen. They want to go with that. I got, like I said at the outset, I got the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and there's nothing in the NFC that suggested me that

that's an impossibility. Let's put it that way, all right, what's the next next up? We've got Tampa Bay at North Tampa Bay in New Orleans. NFC South two and two Buccaneers now against the three and one Saints. Buccaneers, as we mentioned, go into Los Angeles fifty five to

forty winners at the Rams. Jamis forty one for three eight five, four touchdowns at the pick That was good Jamis yesterday Chris Godwin twelve catches a hundred seventy two yards, both career highs, two touchdowns, Tampa Bay twelve penalties for ninety nine. They were part of the penalty brigade. But Tampa Bay had an eighteen point lead yesterday that shrunk

to five on that Marcus Peters pick six. And that was a week after they blew the eighteen point lead against the Giants, So they must have had a sphincter tightening experience yesterday on that. Sorry to be so graphic here, Chris Uh. And then in Dominican Sue returned Jared Goss fumble thirty seven yards for a touchdown one oh six left. That's what UH shut the door once and for all in the Bucks forty win against previously unbeaten l A. That was after Barrett forced the fumble with his ninth

sack of the season. UH shack Barrett on that. So, by the way, that's the most sacks in NFL history through a team's first four games since Sachs became a state in two. UH Tampa Bay gave up five hundred and eighteen total yards in victory as the Rams, UH threw the ball around the yard trying to come back. But it was like with the Raiders, it was an early burst, right, it was an early twenty one to nothing lead for the Buccaneers. Um they scored twenty four points.

They outscored the Rams in the fourth quarter twenty four to twenty. That was a fourth quarter alone. And as I said, that Marcus Peters hit by Donovan Smith was just horrific. And then there was the Saints last night, literally like the only thing I got right, I think from top to bottom, Um Saints in a very defensive struggle. They outgained the Cowboys two sixty six to two fifty eight. So imagine both of those teams contrasted with the Rams

UM Buccaneers game. Basically, both of those teams combined almost what one of the teams had in the Bucks Rams game. Bridgewater Teddy Bridgewater was sacked five times last night. Saints had nine penalties for eighty yards. But they outpossessed the Cowboys big time, thirty six oh four to fifty six. They had the ball over eighteen minutes in the second half as well. Amari Cooper got shut down by Marshawn Lattimore. Um, that was really a big deal for for the Sints.

Even Saints defense was awesome last night. They won without scoring a touchdown. Von Bell forced the fumble, UM two recoveries that helped stifle Dallas's offense, and Will LUTs four field goals twelve ten Saints over the Cowboys. Uh, that game, that second half last night was on warp speed. That was such a quick football game. UM. So Saints slogging along with Eddie Bridgewater, but they got it done yesterday. Um,

Cowboys hadn't played anybody. We made that point, Chris before this game, and now they played somebody, and you know, they went into a tough environment and lost. No shame in that, but it just plays to the fact that who's good. We don't know who's really that good. I'm not sure. Um, I think the Saints will be more than a field goal favorite. They'll be less than a touchdown. I'll say four and a half At home against Tampa Bay. Yeah, you're right on I see nothing but four and a

half actually in this game makes sense. You know. I think that's okay, and I think it might be a little light and uh, you know I talked last week. I think I said it on the air. I definitely said it on Twitter. I think we're starting to see good Jamis. And you know, the guy has always had the talent. He just needed the right coaching, and I think he's finally got that with Bruce Arians who's had success with this type of quarterback, a big, big, strong kid,

you know, from Andrew Luck to Ben Roethlisberger. Uh uh, Carson what's his name from from usc Uh my brain is not what it uses. Carson Palmer, thank you. Uh So that's his type of quarterback, and I think he's having some success now with Jamis. Winston definitely looked pretty good yesterday. Conversely, I've always sung the praises of Teddy Bridgewater, the boy sent the injury. The kid, he's just not what he was. Unfortunately. I feel bad for him. You know,

he's just not I'm looking at QBRS. His was seventeen point eight yesterday, and uh, you know, he just you know, obviously didn't lead him to any touchdowns, just four field goals against some pretty tough defense. But still your professional quarterbacks. She's playing at home, and at home, you're supposed to at least get him in the end zone once, whereas uh, you go to Jamis Winston. Eighty four point six was his QBR, So he's really turned into a decent quarterback

so far. I think it's a tough environment though, and highly impressed with the New Orleans defense. Not so impressed with the Tampa Bay defense, So I gotta tell you that. So I think it's a little light, but I think four and apps and okay place to start. I'll see what they want to take me. But I wouldn't be surprised this one closed a little bit higher. I think your point about Teddy Bridgewater, I think that's the big

takeaway one. Yes, New Orleans defense played great last night, but you know, I think about the sack he took late that gave Dallas the ball was terrible, unforgivable, right, And I think if you're a Saints fan this six week period or whatever it is, that Drew Brees is gonna be out, you have quickly gone from We're gonna be absolutely fine with Teddy Bridgewater because he's Teddy Bridgewater too. Boy,

Drew Brees can't get back soon enough. Like we're sort of just bridging the gap here, because Teddy is not um. He is a shell, as you say, to paraphrase, a shell of what I think they thought they had before, at least pre injury. Oh yeah, pre injury. I think this kid was destined, I think destined for a startom. But he was. He was destined to be one of the better quarterbacks the NFL for sure, and he's just

not the same. You know. It's it's unfortunate that a guy like that, because I know the team loves him as far as like his teammates and that sort of thing, but he's just not the player he was, and it's unfortunate that a guy would suffer that kind of an injury. But you know, but this is what we got, you know. And uh And I think I think corner as a good plays to start, but just with the strength of New Orleans and the weakness of the Tampa Bay defense,

I can see this one going a little bit higher. Okay, let's do one more here, and the Falcons at the Texas and these are still early games, right, ten early games and two lates on ten o'clock. What are they thinking? It's just for viewing, for betting. It's just the worst Atlanta Atlanta Houston. This is one of these games whenever Houston comes up, because I think Houston, for me, takes the prize of in a league where we can't figure out many teams at all. Maybe Houston is the poster

child of this. Atlanta's one in three, Houston is two and two. Yesterday, Matt Ryan filled up the box score, but it was all in sort of catchup mode against the Titans, right He was thirty five and fifty three three ninety seven. He was sacked five times. Austin Hooper was a good target for him yesterday, nine for one thirty, but the Falcons trailed twenty four to seven at halftime. They've been outscored sixty five to ten in the first

half of their three losses. So Dan Quinn, uh, you're in the j Gruden sweepstakes as well for the first coach to be fired. And then there's Houston. Um DeShawn right back to getting sacked a whole bunch. He was twenty one of thirty three Deshaun Watson one under sixty yards passing, no touchdowns, no pick sacked six times. Uh. Bill O'Brien quote, it was terrible. We've got to do better. I don't really have any answers. I've got to go back and watch the film. I have to start like

right now. Unquote. Okay, Bill, go watch some film. Um So when I when you guess the line for this, I sort of throw up my hands. I'm like, I don't know, like, uh, three scenes, Like it's probably not a little light. People would bet Houston if it was three. So I'll just say three and a half and then a guess that's what it is. And I see it four and a half and five definitely, I can see one. It doesn't I see one five and a half too. I'm gonna start with four and a half. You know.

Atlanta and by the way, I needed Atlanta big yesterday. Yeah, they were I think one of four on fourth downs. You mentioned the sacks, Uh, you know, some turnovers. I mean, it's like they're this close to being what we expected them to be. This is a Super Bowl team just a couple of years ago. But on the other hand, Houston, which we know they had a problem with the protecting

Deshaun Watson. I think they spent their first to draft choices on a tackle on a guard to beef up that offensive line, and it doesn't look better than it ever was. I don't know if they're bad draft choices or maybe Deshaun Watson just holds the ball too long. I think that's I think all that is part of part of it's DeShawn right, Like that's the Lombardi said that to me this week. It's just kind of his game. Yeah, yeah, I think he holds it too long. I'm gonna go

at four and a half. You know, like, I don't know what to think. This is a you know, we're talking about Atlanta, you don't know what or Houston. You don't know what they think. I don't want to what to think about Atlanta. This is if either team wins by three touchdowns, I don't think I'd be all that shot. So I'm gonna open four and a half and we'll

see where they want to know with that. But you know, this is one of the I know you always talking about on your bag up on what's the one game you wouldn't want to bet an early look might be this one. Totally, totally would be this game. By the way, I act like, you know, Atlanta Houston not having identities is the worst thing in the world. It's not like I'm standing up like at least the Redskins know what they stand for, you know. It's not like I'm taking

that position. Uh. That's well, I'd rather be Houston or Atlanta. We have a few more of these for the prime time. We'll take a break. We'll do those still in the ten am games. What is the NFL ten early games? Two afternoon games, which is just an abomination. We'll do those, will do the primetime games. Try to extract some value guessing lines with Chris Andrews right here in the Numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with

kill Alexander. Don't forget football season is here and get in on the action by downloading the exciting new bet MGM app. Jeff, do you get excited for new apps again? Is that he is? That is too strong of a word, exciting apps. Get excited about it. I'm very excited. There's there's a lot of exciting things out there, including app skill. I'll gree with you well, thank you. I just wanted to know if I was using hyperbole with that word,

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get tweets. Appreciate all the feedback, always um, sometimes funny, sometimes insightful. Sometimes I don't know. Uh, five too many one? Ron Bower, Hey, Gil, will you have Angry Andy to talk NHL season win totals prior to the season's talking about our hockey guy from Edmonds and Alberta Andy McNeil, who speaks Canadian, so we do have a translator. Um, he cannot do it this week, but he has passed along his projections, so I will pass along his projections.

He will be on the show in a couple of weeks, but I he gave me all his numbers, so I will pass those a long run and we will talk cockey this week. Billy mcvegas, Hey, Gil, are you still pinch hinting for Uncle Brent today? Yes? Yes, I am my guys in the desert with Mike Palm, with Vinny mali Ulo and with Ron Flatter Mayhem. I'll try not to sneak the ship. That should be fun. Kyle Stewart, Hey, Gil, does the on site app show you what teams allow in defense and football? I can't find it what teams

allow in defense? Uh? Yes, you'll have to be more specific, but yes they do. They do. Uh show that the on site sports app. Uh new York mess. Do you still like the Bears if they don't leave for London until Friday? Is that the word with the Bears? They're not going to London until Friday. Let's check on that. But yes, I still like them. But yes, that is a curious travel schedule, waiting all the way till Friday for the Bears. Uh. Steven Vegas ten NFL games in

week five at ten am, two at one pm. In my household, we usually call the afternoon games and nap time. Yeah, that's not It's not a fun schedule. Uh. And then for Christie over Undergirl is one of the Chris Andrews is one of the nicest people, not just in life, but met in his business the treasure trove of great stories. Yes, that is correct, we love our Chrissy. Uh Nicholas Griggs one more Minnesota was a road dog who didn't win. Also actually consensus pick them on Minnesota, so I don't

count him as a road dog. You will, you would find some plus ones, but they were a pick him more than plus one's across the board anyway, on the screen that I got. Let's bring Chris Andrews back right here. You can follow who had Andrew's Sports. The name of the book once again is and then one day forty years of bookmaking from Chris Andrews available will all uh sports well where ald books are sold Amazon and otherwise.

He's the South Point Sports book director. And it's our Monday tradition during football season to do guessing lines an old nod to the old start us show, Chris, we have a couple more do we have? Do have one more ten am game? If my math is correct. Uh, yeah, one more Tenants ten am game, And so we get Buffalo have Tennessee not a whole bunch of numbers out there because we're waiting to see Josh Allen status. He

left the esterday's game with the concussion. He did ind he was thirteen of twenty eight before he left with one fifty three, no touchdowns, three picks. He was sacked four times. Um. Buffalo was not happy about this, by the way. They were fuming by the way, unable to finish the game. As you mentioned, helmet to helmet hit from Jonathan Jones. Sean McDermott, Buffalo coach quote, there's no room in football for that, and he questioned why Jones

wasn't ejected. As a matter of fact, Alan was not woozy placed in concussion protocol left his status uncertain for this game against Tennessee. At Tennessee next weekend, the Bills were facing third and eight at the New England forty five. He scrambled out of the pocket through a hole up the middle. Uh drawn Harmon came in from the right. Alan was struck in the crown of the helmet by Jones,

lowered his head and made the hit. Teams combined the Bills in the Patriots yesterday and Patriot sixteen to ten win, combined for fourteen punts, one of which was blocked. I mentioned earlier, all sixteen Patriots points coming off Bill's gaffs. Matt Barkley in place of Josh Allen nine of sixteen seven no touchdown, one pick, one sack uh Frank Gord did his thing seventeen for one oh nine, the ageless

wonder on two uh reconstructed knees. Talking about first downs, the Bills out first down to the Patriots, if you will, to eleven out gained him three seventy five to twenty four, But the four turnovers and the minus three turnover margin that sunk them. That and the fact that they were two of thirteen on third downs. And then there's Tennessee. Tennessee as we as we talked about crushed Atlanta twenty four to ten at Atlanta and Tennessee did so. Derrick

Henry twenty seven catches a hundred yards. A J. Brown at Old Miss three catches for ninety four, two touchdowns. Marcus Mariota and I've I've taken shots at Marcus Mariota before, Chris, but let me just say this. He's the only quarterback in the NFL this year to start all four games this season who has not turned over the ball once. Now, if you knew you were getting that out of a quarterback more than any other characteristic, might you not throw a lot of money over a guy who's that judicials

with the football. I think you might. I threw three first half touchdown passes, as said to to Brown, Titans defense had three fourth down stops on the Falcons. That's the other thing, right, those high leverage moments Tennessee one them all against the Falcons yesterday. Those go the other way. Maybe it's a completely different outcome. Demonte Freeman held to eight yards on twelve carries the week before was stopped by Darrell Casey or he was helped at twenty on

twelve carries. In this game, he was stopped by Drill Casey on a fourth and one in the second quarter. Ryan was sacked on two fourth down plays in the second half. Tennessee allowed seventeen sacks in its first three games, almost six per game. None allowed yesterday. So Buffalo at Tennessee, three and one team against the two and two team. The entire a f C South is two and two. Hate to be lazy, but it's Tennessee minus three, isn't

it two and a half? That's what I see, And I think, okay, yeah, I kind of have a feeling he will. But I mean, of course a lot of doctors. Is strictly my own judgment here, But you know, we're talking about Tennessee. You know, you never know when big plays are gonna happen in the game, and Tennessee made every one of them against Atlanta. Uh you know, is

that an aberration? Yeah? I'm not sure because I think that you can make an excuse for Atlanta going into the game, But boy, we're making excuses for them all year. Buffalo on the other hand, and I haven't had a chance to go through the numbers that thoroughly yet, but I think the best defense in the NFL. I mean, they got to be close, and they're right there. So I think this is gonna be. You know, we've got

a low total. What I'm seeing right now is thirty eight and a half, which I think is the lowest total on the board. Yet it is so far uh so, and I can see why it's such a low total. I think this is gonna be a very tight game. I think two and a halfs okay, And I think Josh Allen's I'm assuming he's gonna play. I think he will. Matt Barkley is competent at best, but if they have to go with them, they have to go. But it's not like Josh Allen and set the world on fire. Rader.

Although the kids he's he's a winner. He's won a few games one So I'm gonna go with two and a half. I needed o king. Yeah, we'll wait to find out about Josh Allen. That's obviously the big question mark there. All right, the two afternoon games, what do we have to look forward to in the afternoon next week? We have the Broncos at the Chargers. Someone checked my pulse Denver's oh and four Charges two and two after

their win over the Dolphins. By the way, just brief aside, the Dolphins have a by here, I believe before their clash with the Redskins in two weeks. But the Dolphins they had a lead for three minutes and forty nine seconds in this game yesterday against the Charges. That's the only time they've had a lead all year. But they've been outscored one sixty three to twenty six, worst four game point differential since at least nineteen forty. That's what

I'm seeing here. Apparently someone was checking this and when they got the nineteen forty, they just got tired and they stopped. They stopped going back in time. Dolphins have been outscored eighty one to nothing the second half this season. Eighty one and nothing. Is that good? Um, okay, so let's start. Let's I guess we could start with the Charge then since I just started with the Dolphins, So Chargers, maybe the Dolphins. They cover, by the way, the biggest

spread of the of the week. They went at thirty to ten Rivers twenty four thirty for three ten, two touchdowns not picks. I don't really know what we know from these stats though. Against the Dolphins, right Ekeler eighteen for sixty a touchdown, five catches sixty two yards another touchdown. Of course, Melvin Gordon is available for this game now coming up. Charges were eight of thirteen on third downs.

They held Miami to two hundred thirty three yards. They had a lot of penalties ten for eighty nine and a penalty ridden league. They also had a huge time of possession advantace thirty seven thirty six. They too had a long drive to to help that time of possession domination eight ten and a half minute drive in the third quarter that helped them take control. They never punted against the Dolphins, on and on and on. By the way, they did lose Melvin Ingram in the first quarter with

a hamstring injury. He didn't return, so that could be a big loss for But back to Denver, and I said this to you earlier, Chrissie. If I been on Denver again, just walk up to me, slap me in the neck. Don't say anything, just keep moving. You don't have an X. There's no explanation necessary. That's their eighth straight lost. Denver's lost to Jacksonville yesterday's their eighth straight loss going back to last season. They're eleven and twenty

five since Peyton Manning eleven and twenty five. Joe Flacco yesterday twenty two of thirty eight, three oh three, three touchdowns, one pick, and the Joe Flacco face was in full effect. Emmanuel Sanders five or one oh four. But they were victimized again by a last second field that we talked about it earlier Josh Lambeau for the win. Second time

this season that's happened. They blew a fourteen point lead at home in a loss for the first time since two thousand six, and it was just like they're lost to the Bears. Right in Denver. Two weeks ago, the Broncos helped ignite a winning drive by getting whistled for roughing the passer against Chicago. Was that Chubb play which was highly questionable, right the league admitted afterwards, in fact,

there was a bad Hall. And then yesterday, after Denver took the one point lead late, it was a flag on Van Miller who got Minshew in the neck. Gardner Minshew in the neck just as he released his past. That was right after he picked up the ball that Chubb had knocked out from his hand. So while the Broncos finally ended their sack drought, they got to Minshew five times. Now they couldn't stop the run. Two sixty nine yards rushing and we mentioned, of course four Net

had most of those. Denver led by two touchdowns that were driving for another score just before halftime. That was the moment of the game. It looked like We're just to dominate. And then Ronnie Harrison picks off Flacco who just completely airmailed the pass to Emmanuel Sanders and that led to Lambo second field goal that pulled the Jaguars to seventeen to six and a half. And that was

the turning point of that game. Right, You're up two touchdowns, you're going in for a score, and then Flacco just airmails it and that left the door open and the Jaguars walked through it. Denver's at the charges. I guess the Chargers by six, I'll say, Anthony Lynn Discount aid like I see a few sixes, but mostly six and a half. And That's where I'm going to open it. The Chargers just do manage to do some things that you just scratch your head and say, when are they doing?

Of course they couldn't even try to blow that game against Miami yesterday. I looked like a couple of times they were gonna try. I mentioned QB R a lot. This was flaccos. QB artistry set me two point six out of a hundred. So that's like one of the better ones. I'm looking that. But boy, that could be really deceiving. Yeah, yeah, that really is because he did not you know, he came through in that last drive and uh, you're talking about the Joe Flacco faith. I

understand that. You know, he does not get flustered, which I give him credit for that. But still he had that play at the end of the half. I think, you know, did the game turn on that? Man? You know, it's hard to say it turned on that, but it certainly could have been one of those leads that were almost insurmountable for Denver. Had they scored then Uh, yes, that's that's not a great that that number is not

reflective of what we saw on the field. But all that means that I think that's a little like you like six, I'd like six and a half. I even thought maybe seven in this game, just because you know, I like Denver going into the game. Distray ifically gave that out on the show. But boy, I could not have been less impressed with that team. Even if they would have come back and one. The defense, which we thought was really going to be good, never really came

up with a big play. Offensively, they were very, very challenged. But it's the Chargers who have a habit of long games like this. Yeah, so I'm gonna start with six and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if this one goes to seven. Now, well that's why when I guessed that I went six instead of seven, Because it's the Chargers, right, I don't have like supreme confidence. And then covering numbers either, um boy, Denver at Chargers late tomorrow. We got two

primetime games obviously Sunday night, Monday night. We'll get to those, will wrap it up, will recap it. It's guessing lines right here on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with you, Alexander. We'll call out my piece alone. Israeli guy works as there's Caesar's. He's gonna kill me for reading this, sat I won't tell anyone. You're on the air and I'm watching and not in synagogue, So everybody sort of circumventing the new year and talking gambling.

My mother used to say to me, Jeff, on the on rush on the New Year, that if I talk back to her that I shouldn't do it on the New Year, because that's that means that's how I will behave for the entire year. That's what she would say to me. So I'm hoping the gambling instincts are perfect today, so therefore I will have great gambling instincts for the

for the entire year. It's according to the code follows, doesn't well, I thought you were gonna say it was gonna be the year to she expect you to finally like the brisket. No not. I never loved the brisket. No matter what my mother says, you love the brisket, I don't love the brisket. Ema you love the brisket. I do not. Let's get back at Chris Andrews. Chris, I, Jeff tells me I botched this. There was one more afternoon game. There's one more after game, and that's one

Green Bay at Dallas. Green Bay at Dallas green Bay extra rest. They lost the Eagles last Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers thirty four fifty three for four twenty two, two touchdowns of the pick DeVante before he went out with the toe injury. Devanta's injuries big uh. Ten ten catches for one eight yards. Green Bay had four one total yards. But if they don't have DeVante for this and Jeff we gotta get a status on on Adams for this, his absence would be huge. Uh for this game Cowboys

lose to the Saints. As we mentioned last night, twelve to ten predictable first down runs for the Cowboys perhaps yesterday, UM, Dallas came in with the NFL's third ranked running game, averaging a hundred seventy nine yards. They had scored no fewer than thirty one points in a game. Again, that was against the Dolphins the Redskins, and who was the third team they played? Dolphins, Redskins and uh, what other

drek do they play? Giants? UM? Apologies of the Giants for including you with the Dolphins and Redskins, but they only got forty five yards on the ground did the Cowboys Yesterday? Zekiel Elliott scored the game's only touchdown the third quarter gave Dallas the ten and nine lead, but he finished with just thirty five yards and his longest run was six yards. He was also stripped, if you remember, by Von Bell in the fourth and short run. That

was huge. Um, Dallas by three and a half, I suppose, yeah, I see three and happens four. I'm going to go to three and a half. But I do think that Davante Adams, who by the way, a fish three listed as questionable the latest latest high half. I think that is a big injury because I think you get averaging like about ninety four yards of games something like that,

so you know, obviously a big, big weapon for green Bay. Um. You know, it's funny green Bay's defense carried in the first couple of games and then all of a sudden, the defense doesn't show up. But of course Rogers has his best game of the year or so forth. So interesting game. From that perspective, I think Dallas showed that maybe they're not quite the at this team on Earth, like Jerry Jones would have you believe when they faced

the real opponent yesterday in some hostile territory. Of course, they're coming back home here I think three and a half's good. I wouldn't want to go too far land points against Green Bay. Like I said, I think that defense probably maybe that wasn't the real defense we saw against Philadelphia, and Missily was really on a mission that game, and Wentz played extremely well for the first time in a while. But I think the defense probably shows up

a little bit better for Green Day. And I think three and alps of plenty, plenty of points to have there. So I'm gonna go to three and a half. Nailed that one. Let's go Sunday night. What you got. The Colts at Kansas City, Colts at Casey, Colts among the two and two teams in the a f C South after their loss of the Raiders at Casey Casey four and oh only undefeated in the NFL, case New England, and then the Niners who are three and oh coming

off of by UM. So I look at the Colts and the Chiefs as sort of sort of the same lesson right, We talked about how the Colts the two key turnovers or everything they fumbled at the Oakland sixteen with three forty six left in the second quarter. They were down to one and ten at the time. Then the pick six with two O nine left in the fourth quarter when they were only down a touchdown should also been noted. The Colts had a lot of injuries right t Y Hilton Devon Funches, they were both out

with injuries. Uh, the Colts still game three forty six yards more than half of those. I should mention in the fourth quarter when they were scrambling to get back in the game, but Marlon mac didn't return after hurting his ankle in the second half. They also played without All Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who was concussed. Safety Malik Hooker had the tornment niscus, so that could have gone very differently for the Colts without those two turnovers. The

Chiefs and the Lions were fascinating yesterday. Somehow we haven't gotten to this game yet because the Lions I'm assuming are are either they're gonna buy next week, is it um? So the Chiefs. Yeah, The Chiefs lost three fumbles and Detroit gave it back twice with fumbles in the third quarter, combining for the most fumbles lost in a game since So the key sequence of this game and the Chiefs, I don't know if you could say they should have lost this game, but they certainly could have very easily.

They opened the second half with the McCole Hardman fumbling on the McCole Hardman fumbled the kickoff return opening kickoff return second half. Then Matthew Stafford fumbles on the Kansas City six on the ensuing possession. Uh. And then Johnson fumbles into the end zone on Detroit's next drive. That carry on Johnson fumble. Uh, that's when Kansas City went ahead for the first time early in the third quarter. But Shad Brilon recovers the carry on Johnson fumble he

returns at a hundred yards. Is one of these things where they don't blow the whistle, right, they take advantage of everyone on the field sort of appearing to stop momentarily, the officials not blowing the whistle. And it stood after review and it was a correct standing. Uh. It was a fumble and the Chiefs completely flipped the game on that. By the way, they needed a final score late on a big Patrick Mahomes scramble on fourth and eight on

their final drive to see or the win. But were it not for that play, UH, there's no way they win that game. Probably, so Chiefs got sort of fortunate to win that game against Detroit, who gets their first loss of the year Casey versus Indianaples. Though it's still Kansas City and it's Monday's Sunday night at home primetime. I mean to me this, if it's seven, it's too little. Fourteen is way too many. The only question for me is that ten or ten and a half I was

gonna guess. And if it's a ten and a half, um, I'll say ten and a half because I think ten. People still bet Kansas City. I'm gonna open ten, but I think nine and a half and ten on this game. And you're right, a Sunday night game, the public is going to be on Kansas City. But I would not be surprised if the wise guys coming in on the coach in this game. First of all, let the Detroit game. First of I was impressed with the Lions. They're they're

pretty good. That's a that's the only team. Man, that's one hell of a division. I gotta tell you, I don't know who's gonna win that, but right now I think I think it's the Vikings in last place, which a lot of people like them to win it. But that that division very, very tough, So I'm impressed with Detroit. That being said, um, Kansas City pulled out to win, and you're right, they had a couple of big plays. They very easily could have lost, maybe even should have lost.

But nonetheless, I think the public will be on Kansas City in this game. And uh but I think the wise that might come in and take the Colts. So I'm gonna open ten. I think that's a good number, but I see some nine and a half's out there, and I'm not sure. If I was opening in a vacuum, I wouldn't go at nine and a half. But like I said, I think the public will definitely on Kansas

City comes Sunday night. So that's why I'm gonna open it. Yeah, they're gonna bet nine and a half up to Ted immediately, I think to your point, NFC North Green Bay and Chicago both three and one, Detroit to one and one, Vikings two and two. Talking to you, Kirk Cousins, All right, what's Monday Night? Monday Night Cleveland at San Francisco. So San Francisco not only on the buy, but they get extra rest to the Monday night. When we last saw

San Francisco. They were playing Pittsburgh and barely winning that game. UM tried everything they could to lose that game, but they got it done. And for the third time in four weeks, Cleveland's in prime time? Is that right? Jeez? But like that, it sounds like there was a lot of a lot of publicity going into this year, but the Cleveland Brown sounds like it. Did you see anything in the betting markets I should be aware of over

the offseason? Beldin a little bit. Yeah, they were, but you know that said they were more impressive, like I said at the beginning than maybe anybody. Yesterday that went over Baltimore was resounding. Um Mayfield twenty of thirty for three forty two, one touchdown, one pick. He had thrown five interceptions on just three touchdown or with just three

touchdown passes coming into that game. Nick Chubb twenty for one sixty five three touchdowns, including an eighty eight yard or where he was shot out of a cannon no one was near him. Uh and Landry by the way eight catches for one sixty seven five thirty total yards for the Browns, and they sacked Lamar Jackson four times first time Cleveland's been in first place after four games since I know they're only two and two. By the way, they didn't have Denzel Ward of Greedy Williams right there

starting cornerbacks again. Both were enacted with hamstring injuries for the second straight week. Cleveland at the Niners. That's Niners by three, right, Yeah, I see it a little higher. Three with juice on the favorite or three and a half with Juice on the dog. Yeah. I think it's a tough one. I'm gonna open three where they want to take me with this one, but I have a feeling they'll lay it. But you know, listen, it's an

evolving game. We know that they're talking about a young quarterback and a young coach for Cleveland, and I think there's a lot of questions about Mayfield going into the game, and there still is. I mean, one game isn't gonna make your career. But I think he really did play pretty tough and uh, I think a lot of the question marks surrounding him were, well, he panicked with there's

pressure in the pocket, and he was pressured. Although they protected him pretty well, he was pressured, but he really didn't succumb to the pressure. Too much yesterday and well, Chub was he was a man and a half in that game. He was unbelievable. But the other question marks from Cleveland, I think it was a coach Freddy Kitchens. He coached a really good game and uh, I gotta tell you of all those things that that was impressive.

And you know, listen, it's his first job as a head coach, and I think he made some mistakes for sure along the way from from the off season two in season so far this year, but I was impressed yesterday. He did a really really good job. And uh, you know, they came through I think in his quarterback and you know, maybe maybe they've turned the corner because they do have a very good lineup but a very good roster, so maybe they've turned the corner. But I'm gonna start with three.

I have a feeling you'll probably lay it, but I'm gonna take a bet at the three and to see where they want to go with it, so that that that that's gonna be my opener. But I think they will wind up going to screen app at some point. You know how we said Atlanta Houston would be the answer to the megapod question of what's the game? You want no part of the side. This is sort of an honorable mention because I know, I know when the Cowboys were three and know, we said, hey, they played

the Dolphins, the Giants, and the Redskins. What do we really know about them? San Francisco, what do we really have a feeling about them? Like they beat Tampa Bay on two pick six, as if I'm not mistaken. They did crush Cincinnati, but you know it's Cincinnati. And then that Pittsburgh game with Mason Rudolph and all the Steelers fans like yourself are like Mason Rudolph's not that good. Everybody was saying that in San Francisco barely won that game,

barely won, Pittsburgh covered. Yeah, so I mean there're three and no but I don't know what to make of them, So I would want no part of this game either. Well, the other thing is, you know, when you've mentioned it before, I'm much how big of a home field advantage San Francisco had. You know, that's that's not like an intimidating place to go in and play. Now, maybe you know there's three and oh they're playing Monday night. Maybe it's a little different this time, but I'm not so sure.

I don't think it's certainly a lot like going to Seattle. I can tell you that traffic on the one on one headed to that stadium. Yeah, you know, yeah, I mean if I was, if I was to San Francisco, and I think I would be staying home and watching it on TV. And I think probably a lot of them will, you know. So I'm not sure that they get the full home field advantage. But nonetheless, I think this game will go up. I think there's gonna be money for San Francisco, and I'm not sure it's the

right side. I don't know what the right side is going. To be honest with you. You do think money will come in on San Francisco. That's interesting to me. Okay, despite all the Cleveland love, you think, Yeah, I do because I yeah, because I see juice on the favorite at three, and anybody with three and a half is getting juice on the dog. But yeah, I think listen, you know you're talking about muscle memory. I think it

will be one of those muscle memory games. We've got a la the three because it's out there, because are higher, higher numbers when we could get so we have to weigh its memory will happen. We talk about a betting muscle. Memory talked about on the show all the time. We'll come back, we'll review it all, will isolate. The games we think we have the most advantage are at least the ones that we think there might be a possible edge on a first salvo. Don't hold it to us.

We could. We could absolutely convince ourselves otherwise by Friday. But anyway, it's a first reaction. It's guessing lines. That's the point of this week five, the interactive game right here on a numbers game in FEASA. Welcome back to

a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Okay, so here's what I think I like then, um, and that's the whole point of this, to figure out all right, we're going to start the week of handicapping Week five, and remember circu million, it's a brand new four weeks for everybody. You might have messed up the first four weeks. You might have gone home in twenty. Now's your chance to go twenty and seven. I like Chicago if they're only given four and a half in London against the Raiders.

I like the Monsters of the midway there. If New England's only fourteen and a half or fifteen and a half against the Redskins, and I do mean only I kind of like New England called me square. The other ones I like, Minnesota is only four and a half at the Giants. I know it's Kirk Cousins, but Minnesota, if you can't cover four and a half against that outfit,

to use Chrissy's word, give me the Vikings. And the other one I like is the Packers getting more than a field goal getting three and a half at Dallas if Davante Adams is playing. I like Green Bay's defense a lot this year. I will take the three and a half at Dallas in that game, Chris, what do you like laying only one at home that Rams? And you know I like the Packers as well, and you know Davanta Adams. I think it's gonna be a big difference.

But as I'm talking to you, I said it was three and a half and four when we went through the numbers. Fours have pretty much disappeared, so it's all three and a half. I even see a little bit the juice on the dog in one spot, So I'm gonna open three and half. I think that's if you want to be green day. Probably bet him early number might go down. Yeah, and for those of his because his mic was off, Seattle was his other pick there Thursday night, Seattle given just a point. All right, Chris,

I appreciate it as always. UM, hope to have you in studio soon. For those who are like, wait, we don't get a story, We're gonna do him once in a while this year, right, that's sort of once in a while whenever we come up to him. Yeah, you know, I know it sounds like I'm just you know, we're not at dinner. You know. I gotta keep it at you know, kind of in the time frame, so I need to rehearse it a little bit. Whenever we do

these stories. You know, it's not like the old based on the podcast or I could take half an hour, you know. Now I gotta keep it a little tighter. Okay, Well, we appreciate it. UM feel better every day, man, Thank you for so much for the time. We'll put this in podcast form for everybody else who wants to hear it as well. Okay, the boot that Tupapa ba ba Bo