Beating The Book: 2019 Week 14 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

and Anthony Lynn and the Patriots last night. Where do you place the blame? What's going on? So much more to talk about than all that, even still Guessing Lines Week fourteen in the National Football League to the Beating

the Book podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game, Alexander. It is the numbers game right here at Visa, the Vegas Stats and Informason Network, Visa dot Com, the Visa app, serious x MP Channel two for It's Gill Alexander's Where Sports Betting Analytics Live, actionable sports betting information Producing Number five. Jeff Parlay is here this morning for some guessing lines, so we'll get to momentarily. Good morning to you Jeffrey, how you doing, man, good morning, Gil you good? Oh,

I'm fine. Should we talk about your thumb? No, we don't want to grow talk about No, just just a just a just a big look and blister thing that I have to have drained. And uh, let's I'll be okay. Let's start the show with a public Okay, I'll be okay. Don't bite your nails, kids said, there it is there. Jeff bites his nails. He developed an infection under his under the nail bed of the thumb. And why you're puffed up. And it was discussed. It was very boys

and girls. Don't bite you, don't bite your nails. That's a simple, simplistic There are we done for the day? We out of here. Yeah. Whatever we say after this not as important as that. Kids. We do guess lines on a Monday, Week fourteen upon us in the National Football League. My goodness, week fourteen the quarter pole, I guess is what we call it, you know in horse racing parlance. Let's bring in the star of guessing lines each and every week through the years. He is the

South Point Hotel Casino sports director. He is off site, but he is on the phone with us my book, Chrissy Andrews, Good morning, Chris. What's going on now? You use quarter pole right? Most of these guys were a quarterway through the season. We'll say we're at the quarter pole, which of course is a million percent wrong a million and when you're a quarter mile ago, yes, and that's where we are at least after tonight, that's where we're

working officially, all right, Chris. We always asked the first question to get this out of the way, how did you guys do behind the desk there? Uh? You know, we did really well Yesterday. Saturday not so hot. We made a couple of bucks, but it really wasn't very good. Friday was great, way better than we thought it would be. Was just one of those days we kind of wanted everything. And then Thursday was terrific too. So those um talked to Mr Vaughan last night. He was very happy with

the weekend. So in other words, it's usually a happy guy regardless, he's got a lot to be happy about it. So Thursday and Friday is, but I mean, he's just a good natured guy, he really is. So Thursday and Friday reverse engineering that Thursday and Friday really bad for Betters. Basically, I would say so yeah from certainly from my point of view, Yeah, alright, Saturday and Sunday not so not so much either way. Here's what we do for those who are landing on the show for the first time.

Every Monday morning, I stay in a cocoon from Sunday night into Monday morning and guess the subsequent week's lines in the NFL. The purpose of this exercise, as was the case with the old Stardust radio show back in the day with Roxy Roxborough, is to try to extract some value, a first look at value in the upcoming week's NFL line. Sometimes, um, pretty accurate, and we don't

extract much value, like last week. Sometimes I'm wildly off, including the worst guests of all time earlier this year where we were full seven and seven and a half points off and I ended up being more right than the market and that one. Um. So it's it's an interesting exercise. And then Chrissie tells us right after the show, because you haven't put up anything yet, but right after the show, based on this sort of repartee or back and forth, we uh, you put up the lines right

after the show. That's how it works, yes, correct, Okay, yeah, and uh, you know this is a good exercise for both of us really to uh just figure out where we want to go. And because we're not the earliest to get up, get up and we take up that, I can tell you that that's for sure. We'll do it,

all right. Well, let's start with Thursday. Let's do this Thursday night, Dallas at Chicago, And of course in doing this, we will review everything that happened in the National Football League yesterday as well and Thursday and this being Thanksgiving

week just passed. So Dallas at Chicago to six and sixteen, and the Dallas Cowboys, despite their debacle on Thanksgiving against the Bills, remain a top the National Football Conference Eastern Division in in the driver's seat with four games left. And then there's the Bears, who are mired in a wild card and really are on the outside looking in.

On that Dallas loss for the six time in nine games on Thursday against the Bills, Dak Prescott filled up statute, so did Zeke, but they were minus two in turnovers. Here's the stat that I gave out on Friday about the Cowboys here on this show, and it's really the only one. You need to know. This sort of expresses their season. There, six and six. The opponents they've beaten are a combined sixteen fifty and one sixteen fifty and one. Straight up, those are the six wins against opponents that

are sixteen fifty and one. The six losses excuse me the other way around, the six loss Let's start that again. The six wins were against teams, Yes, six wins sixteen fifty and one. The six losses against teams that are forty nine and nineteen. That is the split among all splits. So they are feasting on terrible teams and they're getting crushed by the good ones. Um Chicago Bears. They flirt with disaster against the Lions also on Thursday with Thanksgiving,

but they did prevail against the Detroit Lions. Mitch Drabinsky came through in the clutch thirty eight for three thirty eight, three touchdowns and a pick. But he was really good in the clutch. Let's give Drabinsky credit for that. All of that said, and this, by the way, they're you know, good for Jerry Jones not firing Jason Garrett, are coming on right after that game and saying we're not gonna make a move here till the end of the season.

It's probably true that Jason Garrett probably has to get to the Super Bowl, I would imagine, and not get fired, maybe the NFC Championship. But good for him for not doing it. Because Dallas still controls their own destiny. They could still write a totally different story to this season. I'll say, Dallas minus three at Chicago, Well, you're dead on but yo, you're you're, you're you're burying the league. You know who's still in the hunt for that division

of the Washington Redskins. Yeah, yeah, you're dead on three. And that's what I'm gonna open. And I gotta tell you it looks a little higher than me. Uh. Trebinsky probably played his best game of the year. Is QBR was seventy five point two, which is really good for him. He talking about the the Cowboys filled up the statue. What they did, I'll get that in a second, But so did the Bears. Anthony Miller and nine catches from a hundred forty yards, Robinson had eight grade six uh

Roe Kwan Smith and fifteen tackles. Is all over film. But again, you look at the Cowboys, you know dak As QBR wasn't very good. It was forty three point six, so not great. They didn't play horribly, had three hundred yards passing, you know, Ezekiel Elliott seventy one yards, and Marity Cooper had eight catches for eighty five year. They really tried to get him in the ball, by the way, after him being shut out the week before. Even thefensively

Jalen Smith fourteen tackles, Shawn Lee twelve tackles. So they were, you know, again, statistically they look great. What happened on the winning side, Uh, they got twenty six fifteen and it really wasn't even that close. You know, they got dominated, got dominant. I'm gonna open three. Yeah, they got dominated. I'm gonna open three just because that's what it is everywhere. But I wouldn't be surprised if this thing goes down that. You know, I think Chicago is probably the right side here,

I really do. You know, we were joking, h Jeff and I were via text. I want to say this was on Thursday. You correct me if I'm wrong, Jeff, But get ready for a situation where like the thirteen and three San Francisco forty Niners have to travel to eight and eate Dallas in the playoffs like that is coming Dallas's remaining record and again there's six and six.

They could still have a winning record quite easily here at Chicago Thursday, then their last three games home against the Rams at Philly, which could very well be an NFC East decider, and then the final game home Washington. Wouldn't that be interesting if it was If it was an NFC East decider, I'm just dreaming. That is too funny. By the way, I'm very proud of that first guest Dallas minus three is when I came up with there, and I am I'm thrilled to know that that's what

it was on that. We'll see if I can mimic that some other times. Let's go to Sunday. What do we have Sunday? First game up? Pretty good games Baltimore at Buffalo. That is a great game. Baltimore ten and two after their win against the Niners yesterday, game that they end up winning on a field goal, best starting

franchise history. By the way, the Tenant two record Justin Tucker's thirty eight straight fourth quarter field goal attempt made let me repeat that justin Tucker's thirty eight straight fourth quarter field goal made unbelievable. He's the He's the most reliable, maybe the only reliable kicker in the National Football League. And I talked about it with Lombardi uh every week, or at least they tried to every week. We don't talk about place kickers enough in this league. Eight in

a row. Now for the Ravens, Lamar and Jackson once again in victory. He was fourteen of twenty three for one oh five through the air, one touchdown note picks sack just once, but sixteen carries for one one yards and a touchdown. He had nearly seventy three per cent of the Ravens yards from scrimmage for the excuse me for the last seven games of that eight game streak, twenty total touchdowns, zero interceptions. And then, and what was the theme yesterday throughout the NFL? Very few yards, very

few total yards for winning teams. Baltimore two three totally yards yesterday in their victory against the Niners. By the way, the Niners had nothing to be ashamed about. You might even m even say they could have won that football game, maybe should have won that football game. And then Buffalos we talked about on Thursday here there on extra rest, they beat the Cowboys. For those who forgot Josh Allen nineteen one touchdown through the air, no picks, sacked four times.

Called Beasley in his return to Dallas, was his best target that day, six for one, tenant to touchdown. I talked about the splits with the Cowboys. The Bills are nine and three, so the Cowboys six and six. We talked about those stark splits. The Bills at nine and three. The opponents they've beaten, the nine wins that combined twenty seven and sixties six at least with the Bills. Uh, you can say that one of those opponents was seven and five Tennessee. So there is that they beat one

winning team there um. But that's the nine wins twenty seven and sixty six opponents. So here's the thing with the Bills, though. Now the Bills are one out in the a f C East, and they control their own destiny to get the number one seed in the American Football Conference. The Buffalo Bills control their own destiny. Why because they've got Baltimore here in this game, and then they'll go to New England. Week sixteen. So, uh, there's that. So they control their own destiny. All of that said, Um,

I said, Baltimore minus four and a half. Here on the road in what should be a great football game. You're you're a shade light. It's I see anywhere between five and six. Five and a half the predominant number. I kind of like your number. I'm gonna open this five. So I'm at the low end of the spectrum. I gotta tell you, I'm very impressed with this Buffalo team. You know, everybody knocked Josh Allen. He was kind of like the favorite whipping boy coming out of the draft.

A lot of people thought he, you know, way over drafted, and not that he didn't, but he really fits this team very well. Uh. He had ten carries for forty three yards himself running the football, so he is a threat. And uh I'm looking he had he did get four. He got sacked four times for twenty seven yards. The thing about him is, I think he becomes a threat down in the red zone. Uh. You could cover everybody

and watch the running game. But I mean this kid is just a big, strong, athletic guy, and you know, he's fast, he's strong and he can get the ball in the end zone, or at least you certainly have to be aware of that. And I think he's This is a tough, tough team, and they beat Baltimore straight up, Yeah, I mean five points pretty sure. I think they can. Um. I think it'd be an upset, but I do think they have the ability to do that. At some point.

The well is gonna run dry for Baltimore. They you know it's I mean, maybe it won't, but they've been playing such fantastic ball. They really are a good team and probably the best team in the NFL right now. But I think Buffalo is a great chance to beat them in this week. I'm gonna open at five, and uh, you know, weather conditions you know, might help Buffalo here, although I don't see Baltimore being a team has to play in great weather either. But all that being said,

I think Buffalo is a great, great chance. I'm opening on the lower end here at five. Good game. Good to have the Baltimore San Francisco game yesterday in the morning, and this one's a morning game this coming Sunday, Yes, Jeff, So you know how well it's going for the Bills. The Bills against Chrissie's Steelers next week and Week fifteen was flex the Sunday night football guilt. Well, and here's here's the thing with that. Yeah, I mean we talked about Buffalo is a game out of the a f

C East. They're too clear of the number two wild card position. The Buffalo right now in the number one wild card position, two games up on the number two wild card team, which is currently the Pittsburgh Steelers but effectively tied with the Titans. If Buffalo doesn't win this game against Baltimore and Pittsburgh and or Tennessee do get a victory, that game has a totally different narrative at

that point. Well, they perfectly said. I was going through the the playoff machine on ESPN dot com to figure out all the scenarios if Buffalo does lose to Baltimore and Tennessee in Pittsburgh do win that game next Sunday night. Huge Actually could be a scenario where Buffalo loses the Pittsburgh and they're actually on the outside looking in going into a game at Foxboro week sixteen, which is something that I couldn't really wrap my mind around until I

saw the scenario. That's right, because there will be two teams or basically three teams fighting for two playoff berths at that point. So Buffalo is in one of these interesting situations where it could go wildly well for them or they could be out completely, which happens quite often this time of year in the National Football League for one or two teams. It seems every year. Let's do another one here, Chris before the break. Okay, you're Washington

Redskins at the Green Bay Packers. Well you you stole my headline, but I was gonna say three games out baby, the three and nine Washington Redskins. You said at the Packers at the nine and three Packers. Packers beat the Giants. Packers beat the Giants. Let's just start there. Aaron Rodgers one thirty three for two forty three, another four touchdown passes, another zero interception game. He was not sacked for the season. Twenty two touchdown passes and two picks. Is that good?

Lazar three for one oh three to touchdown DeVante Adam six or sixty four two touchdowns. They were seven of thirteen on third downs and they were one of one on fourth. Again, low total yards totals for winning teams yesterday three twenty two for the Packers in victory. They were plus three in turnovers. Eighth game this season without a turnover for the Packers. Let me repeat that, eighth game this season without a turnover. That's the most in

the NFL. And then there's the Redskins. Now, I'll sudden this to both of you, guys. Was this the most inexplicable outcome of any game this season in the NFL? The Redskins and the Panthers. Bizarro, Redskins beat the Panthers, and they beat them. Uh you know in the end, the final score was twenty one. They do so as ten and a half point dogs. But the Panthers went up fourteen to nothing in this game, and you figure the route is on and then from that point forward.

And I know this was not a marquee game. So I'm not sure how many people laid eyes on this game, but the Redskins absolutely dominated the Panthers on the line of scrimmage, like, just absolutely gash them. Uh. Darius guys ten of one, ten carries, one nine yards, two touchdowns. Ten carries one twenty nine yards, two touchdowns. By the way, Redskins fans rejoicing everywhere because Geis blew out his knee preseason last year after getting drafted, So this was the

the Darius Guys coming out party. Adrian Peterson not to be out done. Thirteen carries, ninety nine yards in a touchdown, two hundred and forty eight total rushing yards for the Washington Redskins yesterday. By the way, Caroline only had sixty five. It was the first time the Redskins have had consecutive games, by the way, with six plus sacks since Night four. Now, none of this really had anything to do with Dwayne Haskins. He was thirteen of twenty five or one seven, no touchdowns,

no picks, He was sacked five times. But they just absolutely ran through the Panthers and then even having done that, taking this massive lead after down fourteen nothing, they go up twenty nine to fourteen. Then the Panthers score late to make a get the on side kick. They got the onside kick where there didn't they Jeff might remember that. Great. This is the week where everybody got on side kicks

from Thanksgiving on. Panthers got one. They got all the way to the one yard line, could not punch it in Redskins win Redskins win three out in the NFC East, green Bay is gonna be a thirteen point favorite. All all that's said and done, green Bay by thirteen. Chris Well, I see, I see thirteen and a half and there's one fourteen. But pretty heavily juiced on the dog. I like the higher number. I think I'm an open four teen to take a bet. Um. It was one of

those things. The closer we got the game time, the more I like green Bay. I just felt we were kind of buying low on them after the they looked so horrible the week before. But I have to say, the closer we got to the games and the more I like Carolina too. Uh, that was just an inexplicable outcome. Where's my note to happens? QBR nine point seven. He had the lowest QBR of any winning quarterback of any when you know, but then you know, like you said,

they had what two hundred? Where's my two yards on the Yeah? Yeah, I mean so they did dominated Christian McCaffrey. They held him the forty four yards rushing. Um, you know what happened? I have no idea. I'm kind of like you, Well, you probably watched a lot closer than I did. But I had it like on one of my corner TVs, you know, once it was up fourteen. Nothing I really, you know, because like I said, I like Caroline, We're in a couple of different contests. I

had him in a couple of them. I thought we were coasting at that point. But joint obvious. We always need the dogs. I mean, especially we can get one that went out right like that, and uh, I really wasn't paying attention. Kind of tell the end, you know, but man, oh man that that. I have no explanation for that at all. But like it's thirteen and a half, I'm an open fourteen. I know they're gonna take it.

But come Sunday morning, I'm probably gonna be rooted for those guys who took the fourteen because I think green Bay, really I think they are a really good team. They had really a bad game a week before, but I think they got back on track yesterday. Rogers looked terrific and they're gonna smoke this Washington team. I believe that you really not that good. Yeah, I would have said fourteen were it not for that Redskins performance yesterday. Give it.

Give it to Bill Callahan and the Skins they seem to care deeply, they really do. And they didn't have Ryan Carrigan yesterday for the first time. I'm thinking maybe his career um time he had a big straight go on hundred and thirty four games or something like that. Uh. And they sat Kyle Allen seven times, and like I said, the offensive line just gash, just absolutely dominated the Panthers.

The Panthers, who I guess technically are still in the in the playoff race, who are well, maybe they're not anymore five and seven, they're still in it mathematically, but good lord, should you even don't even utter the word playoffs? Cue the Jim Mora tape at that point, because after that performance and you said it best Christian McCaffrey forty four yards on the ground, fifty eight through the air. That's a huge win when he only barely breaks a

hundred yards from scrimmage. So the Redskins doing their thing. But thirteen point and you said you'll open it at I'm gonna open a fourteen and take a bad I don't beat me on it because I see mostly thirteen and a half, but you know, go ahead, takes We'll take a we'll get some more lines momentarily Week four teen in the NFL. We'll talk a little college football later,

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Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Back on the Numbers game. This reminder that coming soon to Las Vegas, it's Visa book Maker Blonde. It's the gold nail crafted by the Lewis and Clark Brewing Company in Montsanna be available in a few weeks, starting here at the South Point as well as the de Hotel, the

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can make that happen as well. By the way, go to book bookmaker blonde dot com that is book maker blonde dot com for details as bookmaker dot com bookmaker blonde dot com that is winning taste better with a visa bookmaker Blonde. Shall I say that one more time just because I missed a bookmaker blonde dot com. You go, we look forward to that. Jeff was in here with John Murray drinking beers during market Watch the other day, biting his nails drinking beer. Let's just do. By the way,

are your mom and dad are they? Are they telling you what they should be telling you, which is this should be a wake up call from I didn't. No one needed to tell me that. As soon as they diagnosed it, it was very You are easy. You are a grown man with your own national radio show. Time to stop biting your nails. The nail clipper will be utilized now, Yes, it'll be good. Chris. Sorry, We're sorry you had to be subjected to that. Chris and I apologize.

We're just trying to help people out of here with p s A. Is it nervousness biting your nails out of nervousness, and it's all, it's all. It's always been a nervous habit for whatever reason. I don't know what are you so nervous about. I don't know. You got the world beat. I know, I know we'll make him less uh less anst, give him less anst. Moving forward here hopefully, all right, chrissie, a lot of games to get to. Nobody's got buys, we got six d Let's go,

what do we got? Denver at Houston? Okay, start with Denver for a second. We'll get to Euston here. Momentarily. Denver beats the Chargers yesterday. Now I was gonna, yeah, I'm gonna skip ahead to the Chargers, just so I could explain here because the Chargers, now that was there. By the way, Denver wins that game by a field goal. They went at twenty three to twenty. Brandon McManus at

the buzzer fifty three yard field goal. I know we don't say it a buzzard football, but fifty three yard or after he threw a tender temper tantrum at the end of the first half when he was not allowed to kick like a sixty five yard but he uh, he kicks a fifty three yarder as time expired after Casey Hayward was flagged for a thirty seven yard pass interference that effectively put the Broncos into that field goal range. They had no timeouts, neither side had any time ounts.

And I've talked with Lombardi about this. This year, the Chargers had come back and tied the game as at uh at seventeen apiece in excuse me, at twenty a piece in this game, it from all intents and bourboses, it was headed over time. But when you're in this situation in the NFL, the way that refs control these games, and how how egregious p i s are because it's not the college rule of fifteen yards. It's spot of foul. You just send receivers out and you heave it and

you hope that you draw a flag. And you know what, we we go after vic Fangio a lot if that was there. They're they're thinking good for vic Fangio, good for him. Uh. As far as the Charger side is concerned, you have got to tell your dbs you cannot let this happen. Drew Lock, by the way, in his debut for the the Chargers have no excuses. Man, you're playing a quarterback who's not only in his first year, it's his first game ever. Drew lock eighteen of twenty eight

for one thirty four two touchdowns. One pick wasn't sad. Courtland Sutton his big target four for seventy four two touchdowns. The Broncos were seven of fifteen on third downs, and in the theme of the day, winning teams who didn't gain that many yards, the Broncos win this football game with two hundred and eighteen total yards of offense. Broncos win their four and eight. We'll get to the Chargers later because there's a lot to get to. Um. This

is at Houston. Houston beats the Patriots last night. Now, cosmetically I could go through this box score, but there's no point because it looks like New England played a competitive football game and Houston wins it to twenty two and have to stave off an on side kick attempt late to hang on. But in truth, when this game was competitive, or in the competitive time frame of this game,

Houston dominated the Patriots last night. By the way, Houston now with a one game lead over Tennessee and a two game lead over Indianapolis in the a f C South. They play Tennessee though still twice weeks fifteen and seventeen. That's a there's a scheduling cork for you. I've seen teams play each other two times in the final or two times over a three week span, but how many times it happened weeks fifteen and seventeen. That's the case. So Houston is not, uh, you know, a lock to

win the division yet. Deshaun Watson was eighteen or two thirty four three touchdowns note picks. He was sacked three times. He caught a touchdown pass from DeAndre Hopkins. Great trick play there from Bill O'Brien and crew. There were six of eleven on third downs, but again out gained forty eight to two seventy six. The Pats ran twenty seven more plays. The Texans only had fifty two rushing yards. None of that matters because it was all cosmetic. Here's all you need to know. And this is more of

a Patriots thing than it is a Texans thing. But the Texans defense entered this week ranked twenty six in d v o A. That's Aaron Shots Football Outsiders Proprietary stat Defense Adjusted value over average. The Texans had given up the sixth highest opposing passer rating in the NFL prior to last night, and yet the Patriots and Tom Brady found itself down twenty one to three late in the third quarter. Houston dominated. Uh, Denver still got drew luck.

Houston still Houston. I'll say it's more than a touchdown. I'll say Houston. Mine is seven and a half. Oh, you're here quite a bit low here, I see nine and a half and ten. I personally I liked the nine and a half a little bit better. You know, yo, we didn't. We didn't mention this last week, and we should have, but I'll mention it now. Be careful of the home dogs becoming a road favorite. Now, obviously this

team has to be the ex Houston over dead. But last week we had three situations like that, Right, I'm gonna take a mea call. But I should have mentioned it myself. Three teams went from home dogs the road favorites. Uh. One of them covered and that was the Rams against the Cardinals. The other two were the Eagles and the Jets went from home dogs to road favorites, and obviously they neither one of them covered. Uh, and really what I'm not a big like system guy and trend I

think a lot of that is data mining. But this is one of those cases where I think it makes sense because the number gets too high and uh, Like I said, I feel a lot of tens around on this game, and I think that's just a little bit too high of the number for a total. Looking at a total is forty one and a half, and the points bridge just seems a little bit too high. Of course, I think we only had two games over the weekend

where the point spread matter. Otherwise just you know, teams won or lost, uh, you know, regardless of the points. But this one I think is just a little bit too high. Now you're getting up around ten, there's a game where the dog could cover but not win, And I think this has a very good chance of being one of those games I've seen nine and a half and ten. I'm gonna open nine and a half and they'll probably bent me up to the tent. But again,

be careful of that. That's the one trend that I do tend to look at, and like I said, not I think the psychology of it is that it just the price gets created too high. Off off of the past week's game. Only game where the spread mattered yesterday, and let's defy that for people who are just landing here, meaning that the dog didn't win out right, or the favorite didn't win and cover in the process, meaning a

favorite covered excuse me one, but didn't cover. Only examples of that where the spread actually came into play Baltimore San Francisco or Baltimore won by field goal but was favored by six and then I guess on Thursday, depending on where you got it, Yeah, depending on where you got that bear's number, right, Yeah, most guys had it at five and happ and six. You know, so the dog covered most guys. Okay, so I'm a couple of points short on that, but not through a key number.

I do think that if it gets to ten, people are going to buy that back. That would be my my hunch on that. So I had seven and a half and you're saying nine and a half is where you're opening. Yes, okay, all right, let's do another here. Another good game San Francisco at Wow. Yeah, this was the one we were expecting. When we know San Francisco had the Baltimore New Orleans Kinniella here in this next

couple of weeks doesn't work out for San Francisco. Yesterday their tenant to New Orleans tenant two with the extra rest, having beaten the Falcons on Thursday. Um, Jimmy Garoppolo fifteen twenty one yesterday for one sixty five. You know, just typical Garoppolo. You don't know what you're getting from one touchdown. Note pics sacked twice. Raheem Moster nineteen carries for one d forty six yards and a touchdown for the Niners in defeat yesterday. And the Saints, uh, they have clinched

a playoff spot. They've clinched the NFC South already. Now they are playing for seating. Drew Brees was eighteen and thirty one eighty four on Thursday, but that was the Taysom Hill game. He blocked upon, scored rushing touchdown, caught a touchdown. Saints did have nine penalties for a hundred twenty one yards in that game. Um, I thought about this. The only thing that I could think to make this

with Saints minus three, know what else could it be? Really? Yeah, I think it's got to be three, although I think some I think kind of a wide variety of numbers. Um, you know, I see some like one three and a half the juice on the dog. I see some three, one three with juice on the favorite. Uh. I see three with some juice on the dog. And I see two and a half about two and apps are heavily juice towards the favorite. But I think you've got to open the street. I gotta tell you, kind of like,

kind of like the Niners in this spot. I thought they looked pretty good yesterday, traveling to a very very good team. Um, you know, I'm always a little careful though, you know, second team in the second game in a row, second very tough game in a row on the road, you be a little careful. But you know, let's kind of you know, like James Selina, see like to read the stories coming out of the you know, the locker rooms on each team all week. I'd be interested in

seeing how this plays out. New Orleans, like you said, has quints that division they are playing for seeding. Uh. San Francisco is really kind of in the dog fight here, especially if Seattle wins tonight with their slight favorite to do so, I think this game might be a little more important to San Francisco, and you know, once they hit the field, of course, that doesn't really matter, guys, you're competing, but all weeks the preparation, you know that

that's where it makes a difference. In New Orleans might be coasting a little bit, they have a little extra time, and San Francisco's, you know, at this point, might might be a little more desperate than you think for the team that easily could be about I don't know. I mean, certainly one of the best teams in the NFL, so I would keep my eye on this one. I kind of kind of favorite Sanrancisco a little bit. I think I have a great chance of going there and win

this game. But three is definitely what I think the line should be, and that's what it is. I'm gonna be. What else could it be? Yeah, and I'm with you on San Francisco yesterday. I think they looked real, real good at defeat. Probably listen, could have maybe even should have won that football game yesterday. We'll come back, we'll continue some line guessing week four in the National Football League, and then uh, it's manny about this whole Utah, Oklahoma scenario.

Now that we don't have to worry about Alabama. We'll talk about that potential scenario coming up on a numbers game right here at Visa. It's a numbers game, kil Alexander, it is a numbers game has brought to you by the bet mg MF Jeff, what is the promo of the week here of the day, I should say it's a good one here for Monday night football. New customers

can take advantage of this from bet MGM. Sign up with the code Visa in one hundred and place a one dollar money line bet on the Seahawks, and you went a hundred dollars. If Russell Wilson completes a pass, gil So sign up with the code Visa in one hundred, one dollar money line bet on the Seahawks. Russell Wilson, one of the front runners from the m v P, completes a pass, you went a hundred dollars. That's for new customers at bet MGM. The sign up code again

one more time, Visa in one hundred. I'm gonna say that happens. Yeah, to say, are in pretty good shape if you have I'm going to say that happens. Chris Andrews is here. Let's get some more lines, Chris sie what he got next? Uh, we got 're going from Cincinnati at Cleveland. Here they come, um Cincinnati off the schneide as I said last week. Oh, a two game cushion between them and the next worst team. So they can actually put Andy Dalton back in here and don't

have to worry about losing the number one pick. Andy Dalton comes in and the Bengals beat Jeff Parl's New York Jets two to six. They do, so it's two and a half point dollars. What do you have to say for yourself, Jeff nothing? Okay, I have nothing to say. It's a pretty good notes show, That's all I'll say. Pretty good. And one other thing. Andy Dalton much better at football than Ryan Finley. Dalton two of thirty seven

for two forty three, one touchdown. Note picks and sacks Again the the overriding theme teams that win football games with less than three d yards. There were very little in terms of Toto's two hundred and seventy seven total yards of offense from the Bengals yesterday. They outgained uh the Jets to seventy seven to seventy one. They only had forty four yards rushing did the Bengals. And then there's Cleveland, who's head coach Freddie Kitchens. What was that

T shirt he wore? What did it say? Pittsburgh started this? Very smart of Kitchens. Oh yeah, oh goodness, Belichick, Gibbs, the greats Parcels Walsh. And then there's Kitchens wearing that T shirt. Uh, Cleveland loses to Pittsburgh yesterday. We'll get to Pittsburgh. Give it up for Mike Tomlin. But Cleveland loses twenty to thirteen. In this ballgame. They were they were one point favorites in the end consensus in that one. Mayfield eighteen thirty nine six, one touchdown, one pick. He

was sacked five times by a Pittsburgh defense. That is no joke. Odell Beckham for those who like to know things about Odell every week, three catches, twenty nine yards, targeted six times. Do you think he's happy? Last Cleveland quarterback to win in Cleveland? Tim Couch two thous is in three, excuse me to win in uh? In Pittsburgh, Tim Couch in two thousand three. It's the last Brown's

quarterback to win in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Cleveland. So this listen, I'm gonna say it's and I'm worried I'm gonna be short here, but I'm gonna say Cleveland minus seven and a half because they don't deserve to be double digit favorites. Yeah, it's a little higher. I see eight and a half. Um, you know, I think eight and a half's okay. I mean I listened Sincinnatti. It may didn't even play that great. Yesterday was really just one of those where the I

think the Jets lost more than Cincinnati one. Although Cleveland really, I mean, this team is just you know, missing, They're missing a lot of heart, really a lot of discipline. You know, a lot of that stuff just goes to the coach and it's just one of those teams. They did a lot of things right as far as you know, drafting and and uh, you know, signing free agents, all that sort of stuff as far as drafting individuals, but they didn't put together a good team. And of course

that again starts with a coach probably a general manager too. Uh, and that's just where Cleveland is, you know, I guess eight and a halfs okay. I really don't know what to think about. This game is a very tough number to make for me, you know, I think eight and happs all right, that's probably that's where I'm gonna open it. But I looked for this game to move. This is

gonna be one of those movers. I'm not I'm just not sure which way it's gonna go, because you know this, this and this will be a very volatile game either way. And uh, you know, if you're betting our pleaser card, the reverse teaser by the way, on a bunch of winners yesterday, uh, this might be one you want to put on both ways. Yeah, oh yeah, sure, did you have you have individuals who won those those policer cards. I have the individuals that want a few of those cars.

But there's you look now, and of course they all sound very easily easy, you know. Well, yeah, you take Washington of course, of course, and uh you know Miami of course are gonna be You didn't know that. Yeah, you know a couple of those games like yeah, uh, you'd have done pretty good. Unfortunately, not too many you have to string them together, right, not too many people did. But yeah you could have won some money though on

that part. But this would be one that you might have a good chance of playing this one because this game could go either way very very easily. Yeah, sorry, Bengals fans, Sorry Brown's fans, We're not gonna linger on this game. I just want to say one last thing, But how many millions of years in the same situation would it take before Bill Belichick wore a T shirt that said Pittsburgh started this days before the game never would happen? Oh man, all right, let's see how long

has life been on Earth? Year? Right yet? Okay, this one isn't much better. Carolina had ALM well, so much better now right after after sting Carolina yesterday already went through Kyle Allen stats. He was sacked seven times. McCaffrey, you know, a hundred two yards from scrimmage total for him, which is just a terrible game for him. In Atlanta with the extra rest now, they lost to New Orleans Matt Ryan three twelve yards and defeat. He was sacked nine times by the Saints in that game, two weeks

after they had crushed a New Orleans inexplicably. But again, you know, they had the advantage in first downs UM held New Orleans to two of ten on third downs UM, but there were minus three in turnovers and that's all it matters. And kup Young Hoku missed a forty two yard or he missed a point after, so they've got you know, despite the fact that they recovered two on side kicks officially and really three, they were kind of hosed on a third before that, so they had that

going for them. But um, look after Carolina yesterday, I'll say Atlanta, I won't give him the full field goal, but I'll say Atlanta minus two and a half. I guess, yeah, it's tenure between one and a half and two and a half. Uh you know, I think two's okay to start and we'll see what they want to take me from there. If I get steamed one way or the other, and you know, I could easily go to three, I could easily go to one with this game. It's kind

of a real tough game to figure. I'm just not sure what caroline Is mindset is going to be after Uh you know, we talked about them earlier. They had a fourteen nothing lead against you know, vastly inferior team and blew the game and uh, you know, Atlanta, Um, you know, I I know they cut it to what they was by eight. They kind of to eight, but then you know, they didn't look very good. Uh, you know, you know New Orleans. I think as we got closer to game time, I like New Orleans really all week.

We want to need in Atlanta pretty good in the game, I just couldn't keep them off New Orleans. But you know, Atlanta kind of made it close at the end. But I think that's a little deceptive. Um, So I think two is okay, We'll start there and see what they want to go at this game. But I think a lot of it has to do with the mindset of either both of these teams. They were just kind of again James Selina's we mentioned him a couple of times. Uh,

see what's going on in this game? You might be able to find a winner because I think it's uh, it's a weird week for both of them. You agree with me what I said earlier, Um, we were talking about the Redskins earlier. For those who are just tuning in now, that that Carolina Redskins outcome was, if not the single most among the shortlist of most inexplicable outcomes of the entire NFL season. Yeah, I mean, really a

team that isn't very good. I mean, listen to you, like Parcel says you are what your record says you are. They dominated both lines of scrimmage, don't strongly, yes, dominate. Where did that come from? Gil, I have no idea what you know I mean, but they absolutely did. And uh, I'm not the kind of guy who looks at film. I wanted to really know what I'm looking at anyway, But just look at the numbers. I mean, they totally

dominated that the line of scrimmage. And until we talk about quarterbacks an awful lot and let me a little bit about running backs and receivers, but football begins at the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively. And this team got got you know, we're talking about Carolina. They got dominated by a clearly inferior team. And you know, where do we go with that? I don't know. But Atlanta,

of course, they gave up board. They I'm gonna act that they give us uh nine tack and when they sat grieve a couple of weeks before that, like six times or something like that. So you know, it's just listen, it's a crazy game that you know, that's part of what we love about the NFL. What a league. We'll

come back, We'll get some more lines. Week four teams try to extract some value a little off at two points here and there, but not through any key numbers yet coming back right here on a numbers game in visa. You know, the history of this podcast is really without sponsorship, except when I really believe in one. Bookmaker dot eu

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It's on numbers game with your host Gil Alexander wants to believe in Adams were guesting lines. That's what we do on Monday's Week four teen in the National Football League. The quarter pole, as I so accurately described it earlier, thanks to uh Chrissy's confirmation on that uh, it's brought you as always by the way in numbers game, brought you by the bet mgm app Jeff remind the good people what the promo is for tonight. Absolutely new customers can take advantage of the new deal Visa in code

or code I should say Visa in one hundred. If you sign up with that code, place a one dollar money line bet on Seattle tonight and you win. If Russell Wilson completes a pass, so a one dollar money line bet with the code Visa in one hundred money line on the Seahawks. If Russell Wilson completes a pass, you win a hundred dollars one forward pass, one forward pass. Yes, if we're not anymore, he should do that again. The

code Visa in one hundred one dollar money line. Bet on the Seahawks and you win a hundred dollars if Russell Wilson completes a pass tonight with bet MGM. Thank you, Jeffrey. Let's bring Chris Andrews back in. Here is the South Point Hotel Casino sports book director. He is my mish Chris. We got a whole bunch more games to get to here, So let us without further ado, let us resume, sir. What's next? Next up? We have the Lions at the Viking. Well,

the Vikings have not played yet. They played the Seahawks tonight. By the way, good Monday night game Seahawks. As Jeff alluded to in the promo, there Seahawks favorite now by two and a half consensus with extra juice two and a half extra juice across the board, UH teetering on the three UH Seahawks favorite at Seattle tonight. Which Vikings team will show up? By the way, Adam feeling now out.

So for those people whose fantasy teams playoffs or no playoffs depended on the presence of Adam feeling, God help you, I would fall into that category. By the way, ESPN Fantasy does not let you switch in and out on that, so great for all of us. Detroit at Minnesota, Sorry about that side right there, Detroit on extra rest. They lose to the Bears. They snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But David blou performed well twenty two for

thirty eight to eighty two touchdowns. One pick was sacked twice. Golla Day his biggest target there. For touchdown they were eight have sixteen on third downs. They did have nine penalties for eighty five yards. And then Minnesota's I mentioned not having played yet, they played tonight. This to me would come down to Stafford versus no Stafford, no real distinction between driscoll or blow here chrissie. If it's not Stafford, let's just do that. I would say Minnesota would probably

be borring anything that goes crazy tonight. Probably about a thirteen point favorite somewhere in that pocket. Uh it's it's fourteen. Uh pretty much everybody that has it up has fourteen. I'm gonna put it up just I hate to not put up a number like this, so we'll put it up that right now. Uh, they're saying Stafford is very questionable. I can't you know if I was I mean, if I was a doctor, and I'd never signed off on this guy playing the rest of the year and all

with a back injury like that. You know, Um, I don't see why you would played David Blow. You know, I really didn't know much about him. He played for Perdue. I remember seeing his numbers and stuff like that. And uh, I finally played really well for you know, an undrafted free agent getting his first start on national TV. It seemed like a very confident kid too, and uh, you know, good for him. I think the four teams a little high.

So not that I don't like your number better. I just don't want to mess around with this number too much. With Minnesota playing tonight and you know, I'm assuming Stafford isn't play, but I really don't know. So I'm gonna open fourteen and they gets okay. By the way, I do want to correct one thing you said, Gil. It's not to an alf with extra juice on the favorite everywhere and a half. It's two and a half minus

one and the sound point. As we do every week, I keep reminding everybody everything is eleven and ten on the board here at the South Point on straight bets on halves are a little different. But on the games, whether it's you know, basketball, football, college pro, whatever, everything's eleven and ten. Yes, it's worked out highly in our favorite let's say, over the years, and we surely helped our handle quite a bit. We should remind people that's

a that's a Michael gone on down policy. That's just a policy, blanket policy here. But yeah, I had a new kid came in this last year and he moved. We had a game I can't remember us. He moved into a dollar fifteen and I come running out of what the hell are you doing? They were just steaming and we don't do that here. Don't do that here, We don't do that here. Stop taking a lot of your own hands. Um. But yeah, no, no, no, I understand you came from another book. That's what you guys did.

We don't do that here. Um. I I stand correct, and I apologize for that. Of course at the South Point that is not the case. By the way, we talked about this with the Bills earlier, how they're sort of in this strange not strange, but in this in this uh sort of sphere where they can really ascend to the top of the a f C. They could also be out of the playoffs well. Tonight's game between

the the Seahawks and the Vikings. Seahawks win, they are technically in first place in the NFC West and the and the Niners would move down to the fifth seed, at least temporarily. If the Seahawks win tonight. For the Vikings, they're very much in the Bills situation. Uh. If they win tonight, they're in a tie with Green Bay atop

the NFC North. However, by the way, the Bills won out in the a f C East, but the similarity is if the Vikings lose tonight, they just have a one game lead over the Rams for the final wild card position, the final playoff position in the National Football Conference. So huge implications for both teams to night, particularly the Vikings, who could be teetering um as the Bills could be next week if they lose on in the playoff picture entirely as good as they look in their position right now.

All right, So Detroit at Minnesota, you are opening at what was the final word, I'm gonna open four. I'm gonna be very careful with this game too, because I don't know a lot of a lot of things could happen here, but I'm gonna open four. Dad just want to be great with everybody else. What is next? Miami at the Jets? All right now? Whenever I do Miami guesses, I always get because of that Miami Pittsburgh. We'll call

it the incident from from six weeks ago. That will always be referred to as the incident where I guess minus seven and a half of it was minus fourteen or minus fourteen a half. I will give. I'll give what I think it should be and what I what I guess it will be. What I think it should be is the Jets minus four. What I guess it will be will be higher than that. Because we always do this every week with Miami. I bet it will be the Jets minus five and a half before you

give the answer to that. Miami ten and two now ten and two in one possession football games since the start of last season, they are the anti Chargers. Ten and two are the Dolphins in one position game since it started last season, they've won three of five since starting Owen seven. They beat the Eagles, of course, marying the headline. They beat the Eagles yesterday outright by the score of let's get the final score on man thirty seven to thirty one. They did so as ten or

ten and a half point dogs. They outscored the Eagles twenty three to three after trailing by fourteen in the third quarter, another fourteen point deficit. Dolphins and Redskins had that in common yesterday. The Dolphins scored on six of their seven final drives. Ryan Fitzpatrick thirty nine for three sixty five, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked three times. In Davante Parker seven for one fifty nine and two touchdowns. Dolphins were three or three on fourth downs. And we

talked about the Jets. They just got crushed by the Bengals two to six. Donald forty eight for two thirty nine, no touchdowns, No Pixy was sacked four times. They had ten penalties for one hundred five yards. Um. So again, let's review. I think it should be minus four, but I guess it'll be minus five and a half in favor of the Jets. Here. Yeah, it's actually a lot more six than five and a half. There's a couple of five and a halfs out there. I'm opening five

and a half. I'm with you. You know, I'm sure I'll bet me up. But you know, I looked back with Miami game, and I like, totally I'm smarted myself. As I said, uh, the Eagles went from a homegogs or road favorite. And as I'm as we got closer to games, I'm reading all these guys back for the Eagles. You know, Aldar's back, how Sean Jeffreys back. Uh you know what, what's the tackle's named Johnson? Is that the kids? The tackle? He's back? Uh, finally we're gonna get to

see the real Eagles. And uh, you know, actually Carson Wentz played a pretty good game. But nonetheless I started I put the put the Eagles in a bunch of my contests, and and uh, you know, there's no doubt there were the wrong side. It was unquestioned. It wasn't like that Red Skin game where the Redskins looked bad and then all of a sudden came along Miami was the right side from the big game. Uh, and the Jets, you know, the whole world new Cincinnati was gonna win

that game yesterday. I don't know what it was. I guess Dalton coming back and they didn't want to be in sixteen. This was their chance to go to win the whole world. New Cincinnati was gonna win, and the Jets just look prowful. Six is too high. I'm with you, yea, you know the six is way too high. I'm gonna mark that on my sheet. That's one of the sides I like, I'm gonna open five and a half. They'll bet me up and God love him, they can have it. How many yeah, how many times have we been on

this show this year? And I was at Miami pick that that. That's the first pick of of so many of these dancing lines this year. I just think they are criminally underrated. And again they've they've won three out of the last five. Out right, yes, Jeff, forget forget the points. Miami's winning the game. Out right, Gil there it is Jets fan Jeff Carls. It's like he's my child. It's like he's my child. He's taking my Redskins defeatism. And he said he's through osmosis taking it for the Jets.

So it is minus six. Give me the Dolphins. Give me the Dolphins again, Miami ten of two, ten and two rather in one possession game since the start of last season. They're not a bad They're not a terrible Let me rephrase that they are not a terrible football team when Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing quarterback. This notion that they suck when he's their quarterback is just wrong. They're not good, but they're okay. Um, so give me the

Dolphins there, let's do one more. I'll say what to Let's give credit where'd that fours has done a really good job as their head coach. He's kept his team together when they could have really gone south it looked like it was going to It's kept this team together pretty good. You know, all right, give him credit to It's Fitzpatrick. He is what he is. He's had a very interesting career. But you know, he's put up some numbers, no doubt he he was the right move for this team.

About it, No, you make you make a good point there before we move on to the next game. You know, as much as we talk about the Freddie Kitchens of the world and the Jason here, it's and you know, the Ron Rivera as he deserves some criticism yesterday and all these guys, and believe me, we'll talk about Lombardi tomorrow. All these coaches Shermer who might be you know, and there's a lot of one and done here. Give Flora's

credit in Miami, give Callahan credit in Washington. Uh and uh, and give Mike Tomlin credit, which will get to momentarily with Pittsburgh. Let's do another here. We got the Colts at Tampa Bay Colts and Tampa Bay Boy. The Colts are six and six again, fourth time in five seasons they've been six and six. This time they they kind of staggering and are staggering into six and six. Jacobe Brissette yesterday in the colts thirty one to seventeen home

loss to the Titans. Uh. He was forty three nineteen one touchdown, two picks, act three times. Zach Pascal was his main target seven and one on nine. But Adam Vinitary, Look, this is the thing. I get it. Frank Wright has been so loyal to Adam Vinitary. But I think Uh. Siciliano said this on on Red Zone yesterday Andrew Siciliano, and he's right. When you look back at this cold season, the headline is Adam Vinitari probably cost him this season.

He really did. Yesterday two field goals blocked fifty three and forty six yards. He missed another one which was fifty five. Obviously the one block was returned to the house and really sort of I didn't clinch the game, but it really sort of put the nail or was about to put the nail in the coffin for the Colts at that point against the Titans. Yesterday, Tampa Bay they yesterday, you know, they win. They beat Jacksonville eleven.

Tampa Bay has worked themselves to a five and seven record, which is, you know, okay, great Jamis Winstom doing Jamis Winston things thirty three, two sixty eight, no touchdowns, no picks. Yesterday for him, he was sacked four times. Uh. The Bucks were seven of seventeen on third down three hundred fifteen total yards in victory. But the key stat turnovers. They were plus three in turnover is against jackson Millton.

That's all you need. They win that game. Um listen, this wouldn't have been the line even two weeks ago, but now, um god, I was debating between Bucks minus two and a half or Bucks minus three here, which is hard to believe that you would make this line at this point. But that's where it is. I'll say Bucks by three, so pretty solid three. I do see some juice on the favorite and some spots. Um, I think the public will be on Tampa Bay in this game,

just a hunch. I don't know about the wise guys, but I have a hunch public will be on Tampa Bay. But you know, you know one thing we've we've set off and on this show in the NFL, the key to winning long term you buy low, you sell high. And right now I think this would be a perfect example of that game. You're buying low on the Colts and uh, selling high on the on Tampa Bay. I kind of like the Colts in this spot, you know, But I think you're right by vance Erry. I think

they probably won't make the playoffs. And and you know, you hate the pennant on one guy, especially a guy what's the guy? What super Bowl ring? Yeah? What a career? Yeah, I mean he really is, but you know, I mean he'd probably cost him a playoff spot in this in this season. Um, you know, not that they're a great team,

but they have a pretty good lineup. I mean I think you know, we can go off under Andrew Luck think I think if Andrew Luck was on this team and with the right kicker, then they'd be one of the top teams in the a f C. Uh. But right now, I think I think right now, Indianapolis, I think it's a good chance that they that they win this game. Out Right, I'm gonna mark myself next to the Colts here. I'm gonna open three. I think that's a number of you guys kind of got to open

at this point. But I definitely like the Colts. Wasn't the kind blow on them strolling ais on Tampa back and and the season? You know, I shouldn't we say when he read the PostScript on this season? Listen, they're only two out in the a f C South, two back behind the Titans, one back behind the two back behind the Texans, one behind the Titans, only one game out of playoff position. So I'm mean, look, there's still time here for the Colts, but they're gonna have to

do better than they did yesterday. And they they really have got to figure out what to do with Adam Vinitari. Um. I don't know if there's any move pending, but this is really an albatross for them. Uh, let's do one

more here before the break Chargers at Jacksonville. All right, we finally get to talk about the Chargers now, Parlay, Jeff, Jeff, Parl's was outraged more than anybody I know yesterday you thought, by the way, Chargers again lose to the Broncos and the the NFL veteran that is Drew Lock, who has one game under his belt. Now they lose by a field goal. It's the fourth loss this season for the Chargers by three points or fewer, the fourth loss by three points or fewer. That's the most in the NFL.

All of their eight losses, their four and eight are by seven points or fewer. It's the same movie every damn week. Philip Rivers nine for two seventy two touchdowns, a pick, he was sacked three times, Mike Williams five for one seventeen. But you know what's the only long the only downfield pass that Philip Rivers ever completes now is a heave and a prayer that Mike Williams somehow

comes down with. There is nothing structured downfield. But you, you, Jeff, you were like Fangio and Lynn both played this wrong down the two of them. Well, let's put it this way, not a mensa meeting. When these two teams meet, the two of them now do not break out. But but Anthony Lynn did everything wrong on the Chargers last drive. We did one thing right at least well, he mills the clock. He decided to kick the field goal in correctly. He milked the clock correctly, that is correct. But the

whole sequence fourth and one way deep? All right? Do you absolutely have to go for it? That's correct? False start? Um? Then? Or was that the delay a game on fourth? Oh? No, the delay a game was it became fourth and left, then the fourth and X. All right, yet all three time outs. I thought, maybe our idea punt. Then fourth and eleven. There's no way you can possibly go forward. You're handing Denver three points. Denver is gonna run the

ball into the offensive lineman's behind three straight times. You're gonna get it back with two minutes down three You know what, I didn't have a problem. Oh it was completely wrong. It would work. And then one at the end it was fourth and a foot. And this comes back to what we've talked about plenty on the show. Philip Rivers doesn't sneak. He doesn't If you if you if you had a quarterback that sneaks, you sneak, you get the first down, and you go for the touchdown

and try to win the game. It's funny. More than anything, this show in recent times has been known more for the Philip Rivers thing than anything. Every time it happens, I get a flood of tweets and people, look, you're right, he doesn't steak. Sneak. It's a competitive disadvantage. The reason that the Chargers shouldn't have gone for it on fourth and one is unlike the decision making for any other team because they don't have the sneak option. It's like

it's in his contract. It's amazing. And also also I know it ended up working in the end for Denver, but throwing ball in that spot was completely and utterly reckless with a rookie quarterback. Well, okay, but no, let's see all counter it was. But it was it reckless? Or is it the exact right thing in this modern day of the NFL where refs will throw a flag for seemingly anything. What, let's just just walk this through.

Maybe Vic Fangio is smarter than you think. Maybe that coaching staff got together and said, look, there's nineteen seconds left or however many there was. Nobody got to telling just heave it, just heave it. And I can't remember who the receiver was. Um, was it Setting? Also Setting? He had a great game to touchdown already Sutton find the d back and just run into him. Now in

this case, he didn't have to change direction. He just made a B line towards the ball, and um, you know, Casey Hayward just absolutely lost the ball and crashed right into him. And you don't live. When we were watching it live, I was like, oh, you can't throw the flag. And then when they showed the replay from the back judges viewpoint, you had to float throw that flag. You had do so I don't know. Maybe maybe Vick fan jo on that Bronco staff deserves a lot of credit

if they do. Anthony lynnon that staff should be equally admonished for not saying to their backs, whatever you do, make sure you're looking back at that ball at all times so they don't throw the flag. Um. Anyway, who are they playing Jacksonville? I forgot about Jacksonville. Uh, charges are playing Jacksonville? Jacksonville? What did they do? Oh? Yeah, they lost the Tampa Bay We just talked about eleven.

Nick Foles was seven or fourteen for nine three. But then Gardner Minshew came back, and I've gotta tell you it's a different football team. He was sixteen of twenty seven seven, one touchdown, one pick, sack two times the Jaguars. You wonder why I mentioned penalties. The Jaguars yesterday had sixteen penalties for one twenty five yards. That good. Uh, listen, I don't know what to make this line. I had the more more trouble with this line than I think

any of them because it's the Charges of Jacksonville. I wouldn't Let's put it this way. Let's put two and a half on each side. If there's any number in between the two and a half, so I will not be surprised by any of it. I just said pick them because the Chargers don't deserve to be a favorite on the road against anybody. They will find a way to lose. But I wouldn't be surprised if they're a tick of a favorite here. But I'll say pick them. Yeah, you go as high as three? Whoa three? Yeah, as

high as that. With juice on the dog I'm gonna open to and half. I mean, anybody wants to go to this charge of thing. But I gotta tell you, Gardner Minshew wasn't any good either yesterday, this New Orleans or this Jacksonville team. Remember on how many years we've done this show. Gil said, if you didn't like Jack's olle every week they took away your exactly how nobody like Jacksonville Yesterday? I gotta tell you that was a bad game for us UMN. Tampa Bay just got steam.

We went from we opened Acting to the one and half, but we closed Campa Bay three and there was just no takers. Suge Acting go on this game and I then just a bad, bad football team. But here we go on the Chargers road favorites again. Come on, man, I And I was I did. I did a podcast or radio spot with Aaron Ooster who's with the NBC UH Sports Radio, the Daily Line and this show, and he tweeted me back yesterday because I was on the show, and I forget what we was. We were talking about

an upcoming Charger game. I well, you know it's the Chargers, but they tend to do Chargery things, you know, good and bad and yesterday he tweeted the regulations. There they go doing chargery things again and they blew the game. And yeah, I'm with Jeff as far as Yeah, definitely not a mensa meeting between these two coaches. But I think Fan Joe did the right thing. You know, I gotta agree with you there, and that was you know,

what was what was the downside? I mean, I guess they could intercept the ball and run it all the way back, but I mean, the kid has a strong army threw it, you know what, fifty yards down the field, you know, I mean, be a hell of return that he We're going to get it back in position the score, you know. So, yeah, I thought it was a pretty good move on their part. I was surprised they did it, to be honest with you, but they wounded up. Okay, but charges I'm gonna open to and half. I guess

they'll probably land to me. But you know, I don't know, can I You know, we always talked about the game. There are a couple of games I wouldn't want to have any part of it. This wouldn't certainly be there's a few and one o'clock window, by the way, afternoon okay, first afternoon, that afternoon games. Okay, boy for for for more of the country to watch. Uh, let me just repeat that Chargers fourth loss this season by three points are fewer than most in the NFL, all eight losses

this season by seven points or fewer. I'm sure Anthony Lynn is a nice guy, but at some point you have got a point to coaching. For all of that, you can't figure out your way to win any of these football games. Goes round, blame goes around. Philip rivers on the downside, to say the least, coming back, We'll guess some more. We'll do the rest of the afternoon games, in the primetime games, guessing lines on a numbers game right here at Visa Welcome back to a numbers game

with Jill Alexander. Don't forget to take advantage of Visan's Black Friday Cyber Monday deal. It is Cyber Monday today. Purchased Visas All Access subscription for one year at two and get a bookmaker, blonde shirt or hat for free. Find out more about the benefits of Visas All Access subscription and this limited time offer at visa dot com slash subscribe. That's Visa dot com slash subscribe, we get texts,

or at least I do here. Chris Felak, of the Bear from ESPN's College Game Day, Who Like You Jeff, is a noted New York Jets fan. He said, Jets minus six, Dolphins money line police. I think we're all on the same page there. Uh. He also said, does that not some up Anthony Lynn? Perfectly? Once he incorrectly decided to do something, he then correctly did something After that.

That's pretty much it. One thing good, one thing bad. Uh. It'll be curious to see if the ending of that Chargers Broncos game will now rekindle the age old NFL versus college debate on pass interference spot of foul in the National Football League fifteen yards in college and for everyone who immediately knee jerks to yes, it should always be fifteen yards because of stuff like that. You know,

I'll give you the Brent Musburger counter argument. Brent is famous for saying this, if you if you make it fifteen yards, you're going to have an NFL that is riddled with people just yanking on every play that they're beating on. And so you're gonna have this just epidemic of fifteen yard pass interference penalties, like it will just exponentially increase. That was his take on the argument. Hope, I'm not quoting him, but I'm paraphrasing what he had

to say. So there's two sides of that argument. Um. But yeah, I mean that's one of those where you're like, god, thirty seven yards on that mistake and it is a game decider. Um, let us continue with some game. Actually before we do, do you have that David Perdama tweet yet, Jeff Um? If not, I can read what David perdam had to say here because David Perdham, who works for ESPN shalk and who we love here at the network, friend of the show, friendom Network, David Bate and Burdham.

In September, at DraftKings twenty four of thirty two teams had attracted more bets to win the Super Bowl than the Ravens. In September and DraftKings twenty four, thirty two teams had attracted more bets to win the Super Bowl than the Ravens, including the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New York Giants. Well, some regional bias with the Ladder two. But there's the Dolphins in there as well, proving once again with when it comes to the NFL,

no one knows a damn thing. Interesting stuff. By the way, that's just one little highlight from an article that Purdham has out at ESPN dot com and ESPN chock um. Check that out because he's got a lot more details, including the fact that he was mentioning that. Um the Ravens. Let's see they were in September. Well, first of all,

they kicked off the season. There's a forty five to one Super Bowl long shot, and they were forty to one in early October after losing to the Chiefs in the Browns before this tear forty to one in early October on the Ravens. Pretty interesting. Read that article there, David paying perd David Perdham there at ESPN Chalk. You follow him on Twitter at David Perdham p U R d U M. Let's guess some more lines, chrissie, what is next in the afternoon for Week fourteen? Before we

go on, I wanted to make two quick comments. First of all, the Chargers game yesterday, that was our biggest game of the day. We opened the Chargers one and a half. We closed three and a half. And if we lose that game, that there goes our whole day. We had a really good day. We'd have lost it all pretty much on that one game. That's how big that was. And I saw a couple other guys said

the same thing. Uh, and then onto David Purdham. You know, I saw a couple of guys kind of Pernam made some quotes yesterday and some guys said, well, bookmakers only tell you what they want to tell you, you know they Well, I mean that's everybody only tells you what they want to tell you on any walk of life, whether the politician or a bookmaker or you know, uh,

you know, a movie star or whatever. But I can tell you this, David Purdham, of everybody I know in this business, we all pretty much trust David person to tell the truth. Well, you know, you know so, I mean I like Purdham a lot personally, and I find them to be a very honorable guy. Anyway, Chris, you you mean people? Are you suggesting that people don't tell other people everything about their lives that you're suggesting? Yeah, And when I supposed to tell David you know how

I lost my virginity or something. Okay, anyway, uh, next, we had some lousy games. There's some really good ones too. There's a really good one Kansas City at New England eight and for Kansas City after crushing the Raiders yesterday, Derek Carr now to intend games that start below fifty degrease Marynande Kansas City eight and four. Now as they beat the Raiders by the final score of um, what

was it forty nine? Yeah, forty two nine in a game where that blocked blocked extra point was a black extra point black field goal returned for two pushes the total over is that correct? Depending on when you got it, depending on where you got it to That is tough to lose on that first consecutive wins for the Chiefs

in September. How about that first back to back wins for the Chiefs in September, Andy Reid, Now, for those who are wondering, after a regular season, by eighteen and three straight up mahomes fifteen seventy one touchdown note picks sacked once there were seven eleven on third downs were the Chiefs in the theme of the day. They won the football game by thirty one points, gaining a grand total of two fifty nine yards of offense plus three in turnovers versus Oakland and included a pick six. The

Chiefs had z euro accepted penalties. So again in the year of the penalty, some teams don't get penalized. Chiefs zero accepted penalties yesterday. We haven't said that, I think all year for any team. Then there's the Patriots who lose yesterday. Again we talked about this earlier to the Texans and the final score twenty two. It wasn't nearly that close, and yet the Patriots had a shot in an onside kick late to perhaps have the ball to

win the game. But Brady in the end, I go through these stats, I'm not even gonna bother because they don't mean anything. They're all done in garbage time. But Brady did still post a passerrating below a hundred for the seventh consecutive game. Seven times in a row, Tom Brady has had a passerrating that scored at a one fifty eight point three of less than one hundred. It's the first time that he's done seven straight games like

that in his entire career. Forty two year old Tom Brady, who, let's face it, I'm gonna be kind and say I don't think he's well. Let let me let me pose it to you guys. Is it that he's no longer elite? Is it the fact that he had no receivers to go to? Is the fact that his offensive line is banged up? And really his only weapons are white Needelman? Where it's all of those things, isn't it? That's what

I would think, all the above? Yeah, but there's part of this to all those yeah, oh yes, to all of us Dorset, Lacosse, Myers and s New those are your white outs besides Edelman, And remember Antonio Brown in and out, Josh Gordon in and out, to various Thomas in and out. And of course the retirement of Gronk was everything Patriots by three, like the Saints and the

and the Niners. I didn't know what else to make it. Yeah, I mean this is this is the three and uh I see three though, but with juice on the dog and I think the public is gonna bet the Chiefs here and again, you know we talked about buying low selling high. If you play New England here, you're buying low and I like New England this game. Um, you know, I think the number has to be three. But it's not the Homes versus Brady, it's the Chiefs versus the Patriots.

And say what you will, I mean, I think all those things you mentioned are true. He does not have many weapons. Um, I can't remember the Dante SCARNECKI had the offensive line coach that he retired this year regardless is he's still there. But they have a lot of offensive line problems. And that's always been one of the strengths of this team because they've shuttled in different running backs that have done well. Um, you know, we're not

seeing that so much this year out of New England. Uh. You know, they've done a great job with Brady making the receivers into you know, stars or at least you know, you know, extremely competent players. Again, we're not seeing that this year. But this team tends to get better as the year goes on. And uh, you know, I know we can quote a lot of garbage times stats out of New England yesterday, but they still have a chance to win that game as badly as they were outplayed.

You know that on side kick, if that guy tipped us for himself. He could have gone all the way there and the seconds of the game, and I mean that very easily could have happened. Um. I just think right now, like I said, I think you're buying very low on New England, and I liked them in this spot. I think they beat Kansas City here, I really do it. I'm I'm putting a slash next to this game. I definitely like this side, and that win for the Chiefs yesterday puts them too clear now of the racers in

the a f C West. What is next, sir, well, I'm interested in this game, Pittsburgh at Arizona. I bet you are Pittsburgh seven and five after their win against the Browns yesterday against Arizona, who laid an egg for the first time. We had love to say betting against Kyler Murray is always scary. It wasn't yesterday as Arizona gets crushed by the Rams thirty four to seven, and

that was a cosmetics seven late for the Cardinals. Uh. Pittsburgh has won six of seven now under Mike Tomlin after a one in four start, and they're doing it without Big Ben, without Juju. James Conner has been banged up uh duck Hodges yesterday fourteen of twenty one for two twelve, one touchdown, one pick sacked. Once again, one big pass to James Washington. That's been the stable for the Steelers here last couple of games, four for one,

eleven for Washington touchdowns. Have no idea how he came down with that ball. And again the theme of the day. Winning teams Pittsburgh three twenty three total yards of all offense in victory, ten penalty sixty five yards in Arizona. There o n six versus teams that are above five hundred first nine drives yesterday is all you need to know against the Rams, seven punts, one pick, one turnover, uh thirteen. They were out first downed by the Rams.

They were out gained five forty nine to one. Oh Man in the first half it was three nine to sixty seven and they were two of thirteen on third downs. Pittsburgh not not by a field goal on the road. I'll split the difference. I'll say Pittsburgh minus one and a half at Arizona. Yeah, I see one and a half to I even see a two and a half. You know, I'd like your number. I like the one and a half. I think they certainly deserved to be the favorite here. Once again, be careful, uh team went

from home dog to a road favorite. They wind up you know, the wise guys were on Pittsburgh late yesterday, so we closed this game Cleveland one, so they weren't much of a home dog and not not gonna be much of a home favorite or a road favorite here. So you know the part of that series, you know, the pricing of the game. And I think this, this, this makes sense regardless of yesterday's outcomes. So I do I think Pittsburgh's a decent one and half point favorite.

I think that's the right number. I have no real opinion here, but you know, Pittsburgh day, they've been winning a lot of close games this year. They're they're kind of the anti Chargers, I guess in a lot of way because, uh, you know, they they did not have their full uh consort of players, certainly Estuary, and still you know, won that game, look pretty good in doing it.

And I think Palms is gonna be back this week, and we'll see about ju Ju and Corner, and if those guys are back at Pittsburgh, he arguably could be the right side. I careful here for sure. Pittsburgh right now in the number six position in the a f C wild card picture if the playoffs were to begin today, which spoiler alert they don't, but they'd have a winning percentage in conference games, tie break over Tennessee, but obviously

a fluid situation for all teams involved. One more afternoon game, Chris yep Tennessee and openly speaking of Tennessee, Tennessee Yesterday, Ryan Tannehill seventeen of twenty two for one eight two, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked six times. Ryan Tannehill now in the Titans three game winning streak, eight touchdowns, six through the air, two on his feet, no picks. He's five and one this season, tanne Ill. When the when he starts, the Titans are five and one. You

remember that guy, Marcus Marianna. Every week I'm gonna say that, did you remember, like Marcus Marianne. Derrick Henry twenty six one nine for a touchdown Titans in victory yesterday, two hundred ninety two total yards of offense. There's so many games like that yesterday. You don't often see that. Tennessee beating Indianapolis, of course by two touchdowns thirty one is seventeen and then Oakland and defeat Oakland who were six and four. They fall the six and six. Derek Carry

two twenty two, one touchdown, two picks. He was sacked twice. UH Josh Jacob seventeen for one oh four and Waller his tight end seven for one hundred. But they were minus three in turnovers against Kansas City, and they had, as the Raiders tend to do historically, twelve penalties for ninety nine yards. They get housed by the Chiefs forty to nine. Huge implications for both teams. UH Tennessee on the road. I'll do the same thing I did in

the last game. Split the difference Tennessee minus one and a half. That's mostly three almost, it's all three what I'm looking at, Yeah, Tennessey three, some juice on the dog. But of course we're gonna open three. You know. I kind of like what you're saying, No, Gil, You know, again, we've hit on this team a couple of times, buying low, selling high. You're buying very low on opening. I mean,

they looked absolutely horrible yesterday. Tennessee one, very convincingly, but were they that great or did they just have a few things go their way? So I think you know you're buying high you play Tennessee here. I kind of like Oakland in this spot. You know, they've taken the full three. I think there's some value there. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna mark that down just yet. I want to look a little more closely into this game. One of the things I would say, and somebody has

on Twitter this morning, somebody mentioned it. I see their point. They said, Pokland collectively, is it hitting the rookie wall like too many young players And all of a sudden, yeah, here they are late in the season. Uh you know, they they had a nice little run where they looked like they were right back in the playoff hunt, which they were, and all of a sudden, they haven't played well the last couple of weeks. I mean, because they looked like a kind of a beaten team the last

two weeks. And y F I have Derek Carr had a couple of games where he played extremely well, but he certainly didn't play well yesterday. But it wasn't an all car really was. You know, the whole team did not play well. Did they hit that rookie wall I think that's a very good point that I want to look into a little bit more closely before I would say, but three is the number. I think it's a little too high. Uh, but that is what I'm going to open and right now, gun to my head, I would

play old Tennessee. Um, they've got Houston two more times week fifteen, in Week seventeen, they're one back in the South and of course the same record as Pittsburgh right now for the number six position in the a f C Playoffs. Coming back prime time and recap on a numbers game, guessing lines right here at Visa Well back to kill Alexander. It is kill Alexander. Jeff Parls is here, so is Christie Andrews. Chris. We've had a good run

of primetime games. What is Sunday Night, Seattle at the Rain, Seattle at the Ram, Seattle favored by two and a half tonight against the Vikings. As we mentioned the Rams easy win over the Cardinals yesterday. Thirty four is seven. Jared Goff thirty two, forty three for four, twenty four two touchdowns, no picks, in a sack. In the first half alone, he was twenty four of thirty one for

three twenty three and a touchdown. Girly nineteen ninety five touchdown on the ground, and Robert Woods thirteen catches for one seventy two yards. Who didn't play him in Fantasy Jeff this guy? Um, you know what I think this is gonna come down to. Honestly, I don't usually do this, but I think tonight's outcome really affects that line. I think if Seattle looks bad tonight, this is probably a coin flip. If Seattle looks really good, I could see Seattle being as big as a I don't know, two

and a half only favorite on the road here. Well, right now it's two and a half. I ain't two and a half with some juice on the favorite in a couple of spots. Um, I thought this game should be closer to pick on that. I'll open it two and a Yeah, I'll open it two and a half just because, like I said, I see two and apple juice on the stament. So if I open lower than that, I know they'll bet me they'll probably be playing two

and a half. But that's what I'm going to open it, and uh, you know, we'll see I think tonight's game is very interesting, and this should be a really good game tonight, and I think it will be a great game next Sunday. I do. I think the Rams I'd rediscovered Girlly for one, and golf all of a sudden, it's playing like the golf that played last year. So we'll see what happens. Yeah, Neutral outcome tonight. I'm I'm closer to pick him on it, all right, and then

Monday night to Monday night. You look great in the preseason, I guess Giants at Philadelphia. Oh jeez, well, there goes in the primetime streak. Giants are two and ten, Eagles of five and seven. Uh. The Giants have eight losses in a row. That's eight in a row. Daniel Jones sixteen turnovers in that span. Um but um. He's the fourth quarterback also in the Super Bowl era, with a touchdown pass and each of his first ten starts, So

that's something. Here's the thing with Shermer though. Patrimmer uh ten plus losses in each of his first two seasons through twenty eight games. Now he's seven and twenty one. Keep in mind Ben McAdoo was fired after twenty eight games. He was thirteen and fifteen, and he had a playoff appearance Shermer seven and twenty one. By the way, the Giants officially eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Packers yesterday thirty one to thirteen. Eagles. As we mentioned,

they go into Miami, they lose to the Dolphins. Um They allowed two hundred sixty four total yards and twenty three points in the second half alone, and allowed thirty seven plus points for the third time this season. I'll say Eagles by a touchdown, Eagles by seven, you're a little low. It's eight and a half, and I'd like the high number better here. I don't want to I don't want to say I like the Eagles, but you know, I mean, it's one of those how many times are

gonna let them break my heart? I don't know, but I let them break my heart. Yes, I really like them going into the game. They were absolutely the wrong side from start consenters, but they got a bunch of guys back, and I just think the Giants are just terrible and they're eliminated from the playoffs. Where is there incentive here? Well, I guess playing on TV, I guess, you know, should I mean, plus do your job. How's

that for an incentif? Uh? But I kind of like the Eagles here, you know, you know, I don't know. I mean, like I said, I'm not gonna put my mark next to them as one of the games I like, but I do favor them certainly at this point. Okay, we'll come back, we'll recap it, we'll tell you what we like the best of first look at week four teen lines right here on the Numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill alex Under. All right, let's go around the horn here. Here's what

I like. Miama for sure getting six at the Jets. I like Dallas Thursday night giving three. I think at Chicago, even though I knew that'd be the line. I think I like them to bounce back San Francisco getting three at New Orleans, Tennessee giving one and a half at Oakland, and maybe Baltimore depending at at five. I kind of like Baltimore. Those are my five, Jeff, Miami, forget the points, just take them to win the game. The Jets are done,

the offensive line imploded again. I'll tell you this, girl, I kind of like Pittsburgh lay in the one and a half on the road. I think that's a that's a good spot for the defense. I know Arizona just got embarrassed, but I think that the Steelers win that game and then the last one. I know it's a ton of points and I'll wait and see if it comes down. How about green Bay Lane? Like once it gets back to thirteen and a half, I think the

Packers the Redskins fun is gonna end. There are three out, Jeffrey, it's all over from Washington. Yet again, there's three out, baby Darius. Guys feel the power. Chris, what do you like? Uh? You know, I kind of like the Niners. I like Miami. Uh we all do there. I like the Colts plus the three, and I like the Patriots minus the three. By low Cell High. That's the theme of the day, sir, Indie and Marland qualifying for sure on both of those. Uh, Chris,

thank you as always. How are you feeling? You're feeling okay? These days? Feel great? Yeah, it feels great. My doctor gets mad at me because, uh, you know, I act like I've never been sick of day in my life. That's the way I feel. Although I know there's things out there that I have to be careful of that. How do I feel? I feel great good. I'm like you, Junior, basically my last uh to say, how are you? How are you? You know? I got one leg, but I'm fine.

I'm gonna lift. That's all that matters now nothing. It's so funny when you go through an experience like that, your perspective on everything. Chance, I'm like, nothing bout Let me tell you, yeah, nothing bothers me anymore. All right, Chris, well, I appreciate it. We'll talk to you on Monday for week fifteen as it rolls on, sir, Thank you so much. All right, sounds great? All right, the great, the great Chris Andrews. We are privileged to have him. By the way,

you can follow him on Twitter at Andrew's Sports. And the book is then one day Chrissy's book that is selling like hotcakes. You can find it on Amazon wherever books are sold. Then one day is forty year journey as a bookmaker. Uh, pick up a copy there, Jeff, thank you, Thank you too. Who's in the corners that Los Los patient X in the corner? Thank you everybody downstairs as well. Good luck with the game. Tonight, all of us here at Lucity wish you well.