Beating The Book: 2019 Week 13 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

the South Point right at the show's conclusion. Guessing Lines the Beating the Book Podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander Wabel. Duty to believe in Adams is he is, indeed one of those idiots who believes in analytics. It is Gil Alexander. It isn't numbers game right here in Visa the Vegas Stats and Information Network series x M Shail Too for Visa dot Com, the Visa app Phobostling game plus on down the Line.

Good morning to Producing Number five. Jeff parlays here. Good morning, Jeff, Good morning Gil. We guest lines. That's what we do on Monday mornings here on the show, we guess lines in the National Football League. Will do it for week thirteen. Now I say this every week, but good lord, we are through the buys. We only have five weeks left

of the NFL season. Everybody's played eleven games down of course, to help us along, and the exercise here, the point of the exercise is tied to extract some value in the upcoming weeks NFL lines. We bring in the South Point Hotel Casino, sports book director, Ladies and gentlemen, My chrisy Andrews. Good morning, Chris, what's going on? How you doing man? How was your weekend? How was the bookmaker's weekend? Well? It was it was good, not great, but it was

it was good. You know, no complaints on our end. The handle was fantastic. Yesterday we just kind of held our percentage and I was going through the games, so we didn't have any really big winds. We didn't have any really big losses. Just one of those kind of days, just kind of grinded it out, um, you know. But that's okay. That's that's kind of a bookmaker's life. That's that's fine. And yeah, I'd say all and all was

pretty decent. I sort of expected that answer. By the way, let me let me tell people this, our old friend James Salinas is up to his old tricks again. Let me uh let me for folks who uh don't know James Salinas, who has been a Numbers game and Visa guest for that matter, for since our inception. James Selinas won the Westgate Super Contest in he finished in third place in ten and I believe he finished in twenty sixth place last year. He also won the first ever

Visa March Madness Contest. He's just a contest uh, just expert. Well, he's up to his old tricks. The circum million third quarter comes down to tonight's game, and yes, James Salinas is in play, of course tonight's game. It's amazing Tonight's game between the Ravens and the Rams. It's three and a half in the contest, it's three and a half everywhere right now. By the way, um he needs the uh, he's got the Rams in this at plus three and

a half. So he is tied with somebody for the one hundred and forty three thousand dollar quarterly prize in the Circus Sports Million that Derek Stevens and Mike Palm so ably run. Um, there is someone who is a half game back with the Ravens. So if the Ravens cover the three and a half, Selenas will not lose. But if the if the Rams get there, he will chop it into and he will be uh seventy plus

thousand dollars richer. And of course he has the opportunity with the standalone game too, as does everybody who's in it, to sort of lock in a profit. So how about that Chris James Salinas. Once again, we hope to get him on the show tomorrow. I'll tell you what, that guy has one good handicapper. I mean he's been doing it for years. And uh, if he gives you a game, I would pay attention, is all I have to tell. He's very, very good the Rams tonight. He's on he's

on the Rams tonight plus three and a half. Yeah and he and he was yeah, he was four and oh yeah, let's make note of that, right, he's four and oh this weekend, I just want to let people know the picks that he had this weekend were and I want to get this right. Uh, look at it real quick. He went contrarian on these, but he went he went four and oh he had let's see here the half. I'll have to I'll have to see who

he had here because I cannot remember off him. But it was a contrarian deal where he had the redskins, for instance, among his picks, I know he had the giants. Um, so those were two of his four picks that he had redskins and and giants, redskins being probably the most contrarian of the bunch. And that got over where it is redskins, giants, panthers, and bills to go four and oh yesterday with with the ramps pending tonight, that dude

is something. So by the way, his for those are wondering what is entry name is el Kabong Do you know what? That's a reference to Chris Elkabung el Cabo. That's there's a cartoon from that exactly right quick, let me I be not prepare that with Chrissy. That's how good Chris Andrews is exactly what it is, quick Drawma Graws alias good for you, excellent Hannah Barbara knowledge on your park Chris. So, that's what my god, I can't believe I pulled that one out. It's amazing, said I

envisioned in my mind. Yeah. I think his son really loves it. So that's what he went with. All right, So let's see if we could get some lines here in week thirteen, try to extract some value. Let's begin with Thursday night, Chris Well. By the way, my my Twitter picture, my Twitter avatar is Mr Peabody. So I'm a great uh sies cartoons? What am I talking to? Yeah? Come on, wake up? Oh it's Thanksgiving. There's it's not a thursdayay night, it's a it's a triple header on Thanksgiving.

Of course, it's Thanksgiving Thursday morning. Yeah, Thursday morning, yil So anyway, okay, Chicago at Detroit. Well, let's let's go through this one quickly. Chicago yesterday, they spot the Giants a touchdown, they end up holding onto a nineteen fourteen win. Uh. That extra point meant a lot to some That final extra point b the Giants, that's for sure. Mr Bisky one for seventy eight, one touchdown, two picks. He was

sacked two times. Allen Robinson continues to be his big target six for one, one in a touchdown Khalil Mack with just his second sack in seven games, but that one set up a touchdown because it was a strip sack. Bears a score touchdowns on their first drives of the second half now in five straight games. File that one away in game Betters. The Bears have scored a touchdown on their first drive of the second half in five

straight games now. And the Detroit Lions without Matthew Stafford, and by the way, Matthew Stafford will not be available for this game on Thanksgiving either. There is some talk that they will shut Matthew Stafford down, although Stafford says he would like to come back and play this year, but he will not plan this game. On Thursday, they go into d C and somehow that Dwayne Haskins Jr.

And the Redskins beat them nineteen to sixteen. Although someone tell Dwayne Haskins Junior because he's busy taking selfies while the team is still in victory formation. Joe Fisman lost his mind. Jeff Driscoll and the Lions they lose their fourth and row third since Stafford went out with an injury. He was twenty of thirty three, one touchdown, three picks. He was sacked six times by the Skins, both Scarborough though both Scarborough, sighting eighteen carries for ninety eight yards.

Four turnovers for the Lions. That's what did the men minus two on turnovers at the Skin. So with no stafford, I just simply made this a pick them. Am I being lazy with that? Uh? No, not really, although I do see the Bears is a one point favorite. I see, I see a pick in a couple of spots, um, but I also see as high as one and a half and some decent spots as well. You know, I'm gonna go with one. Jeezus, you know what I mean.

It's one of those things that you look at. Jeff Driskwall was a road favorite last night, you know, and I know it was the Redskins, and uh they didn't play particularly well the Redskins, but you know, Jeff drisk

will road favorite. They come on. I don't know like that. Um. Anyway, to talk about the Bears game for just the second gals, looking through five games, Matt the point spread matter, which is uh way more than usual this weekend, So five games, um, anyway, I'm just getting off on a little bit of a tangent. I'm gonna open the Bears one. I think that's okay. I mean, the Bears weren't any great shakes by any means, but you know they're gonna be a road favorite here,

you know, I don't know. That's a tough one. Let me just climb an open one. Let me clarify what Chrissy just said there. He said five games yesterday the points spread mat nerd. What he means by that is eighty three per cent of the time historically in the NFL regular season of the time, the point spread does not matter. What that means is is that the favorite covers or the underdog wins outright eight three percent of the time. So if you could just pick a winner,

the point spread doesn't matter. But there were a grand total of five games yesterday were the favorite one but did not cover. That's what Chris is referring to. Uh, and that was going back to Thursday, correct, going back to Thursday, So four yesterday, and that was one of them, the Bears and the Giants according to the closing line based on that last extra point. All right, so what are you putting up on that again? I'm gonna open

the Bears one. I think that's okay. That's a tough game, you know, but the public wants to take us all right, Let's see we can get through all three Thanksgiving games. What's next? Okay, Buffalo at Dallas. Detroit is always the traditional first Thanksgiving am Dallas is always the second one, and then in recent times they've had a third Buffalo at Dallas. Pretty good game, Buffaloes eight and three now after they beat Denver twenty to three. We'll get into

the Broncos later. Um, Dallas loses to the Patriots in very in clement weather in Foxborough, a lot of precipitation high wins. They lose that thirteen to nine. But that's one of those games that we were just referring to. Were the favorite one, but did not cover. Buffalo best record now eight and three through eleven games since Nix, trying to make the playoffs for the second time in

three years now. Josh Allen fifteen two touchdowns, one pick, he was sacked once, Devin Singletary becoming their their guy, twenty one carries for a hundred six yards, and Frank Gore, by the way, this has nothing to do with betting, but Frank Gore passes Barry Sanders Chris for the third most rushing yards in NFL history, passing Marshall folk Um for fourth all time yards from scrimmage. By the way, so it's on the rushing list, it's Emmett Smith, Walter Payton, inc. Gore. Wow,

when did that happen? It's incredible on two bum knees by two surgically repaired knees um, the Bills end up with two hundred forty four total yards rushing in this game yesterday against the Broncos. They were eight of sixteen on third down. They did have twelve penalties for ninety yards, but they limited the Broncos to one hundred and thirty four yards and a grand total of nine first downs while forcing eight punts. So how much of that is

the Buffalo defense? How much of that is the Broncos offense? You decide. Dallas in their loss of the Patriots, Dak Prescott once he got his proper handwear, if you will, nineteen of thirty three for two twelve no touchdowns. One pick was not sacked. But the Cowboys were two of thirteen on third downs against the Pats. A Marii Cooper held without a catch for the first time in his Cowboys career. Patriots held the Cowboys without a touchdown for

the first time this season. Uh. They basically did what Bill Belichick does. They took away two of Prescott's favorite targets, Cooper and Jason Winton. They stacked the box on first and second out against Zeke and Jerry Jones after the

game because there was huge special teams plays yesterday. Jerry Jones quote, special teams is coaching taking a shot at the clapper and his uh and his staff with that one because they allowed to block punt, they missed a field goal, they beat twenty yards of field position with the penalty on another punt to the bad special teams day for the U Cowboys, and that might have been the difference. So it's at Dallas. It's Thanksgiving. I tend to believe a lot of that Buffalo performance yesterday was

the Broncos and ft offense. So I'll say Dallas minus six and a half. Well, I like your number better, but it's seven and it's a pretty solid seven. Uh. You know, we do everything in eleven at ten here at the at the South Point. So I'm gonna open seven because I don't want to, you know, play that little game and have uh six and have seven. You know that I have to fade all all week. But I do like your number better. It's seven. That is what I'm gonna open it. I have to tell you,

I'm very impressive Buffalo. On last week's show, I gave about two games that I like that. Um, I like Buffalo being one green Baby in the oven. One was hugely wrong on the one that was hugely right on this one. Buffalo's defense is really really good and Brandon Allen is getting better. Uh wait, that's the wrong app to keep forgetting Allen get better? Four Alan, I can't believe it anyway. I think that they will keep this game pretty darn close. And uh, you know Mark Cooper's

Zuo catches. Yeah, I guarantee somebody on Buffalo is gonna be looking at those films and figuring out how they do that. Um, but I think the six and a half is better than the seven. But I am an open seven, and I'm keeping an eye on this one. If I see that drop lower, I am going to drop lower and see see what happens. Because I think Buffalo a very live dogs. In this game, you will drop it lower with the quickness. I understand, but seven I will, I will. What's the sevens where I'm gonna?

But but I like the dog. I gotta tell you. What's the third of the Thanksgiving games? New Orleans in Atlanta? And they played last year on this Uh? Is this going to be the new tradition New Orleans and Atlanta every Thanksgiving? I don't know it's played last year. Yeah, and New Orleans just played Atlanta the week before, like

didn't they played? They played? Yeah, so this will be two games against each other in a three week span, actually fourteen calend fifteen calendar days, but uh, three week NFL span. New Orleans yesterday, I don't know how they beat Carolina, but they did Will Lut's thirty three yard field goal as time expired. By the way, that one just snuck through as well. SATs beat the Panthers thirty four to thirty one. Another one of those games that Chrissy was referring to were the favorite one but did

not cover. They were ten point favorites. Uh, that Will LUTs field goal. And by the way, now if you look at the standings, the New Orleans Saints have a four game lead in the NFC South with five games left, so Katie Barr the door on that. But that will Let's field goal came after New Orleans went from its own fourteen yard line with one fifty one left to the Carolina fifteen with three seconds were made in set

up the winning Kip kick. Rather, that was the end of a contest that basically was a roller coaster at the end. Late momentum shifts, big errors, none bigger than Carolina's kicker Joey Sly missing a twenty eight yard or twenty eight yard or just completely choked with two minutes left. By the way, he also, or I should say, he also missed two extra points earlier in the game. Um, the Saints, by the way, missed a missed two point conversion over the Saints. You have there the Panthers rather

missed two point conversion earlier. There's all kinds of things that that should have gone Carolina's way that didn't. But that Sli miss came after the Panthers Eric Reid stuffed Alvin Kamara on a run to the right side fourth and one from the New Orleans forty five. That set up a sequence in which Carolina coach Ron Rivera successfully challenged an officials decision not to call pass interference on a third town incomplete bass irony of ironies that this

happened to the Saints. Uh, that's set up a first first and goal at the three with two twenty one left. Of course, Lie then misses the field goal. Panthers couldn't convert and so that's why they had to attempt the field goal. UM Panthers attempted to pass for a two point conversion, by the way, after their second touchdown, As I mentioned, it was broken up. Drew Brees thirty of thirty nine three eleven, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice. Sean Payton actually got mad at him once

on the sideline. In this game. Michael Thomas continues to be his man. Ten catches a hundred one yards a touchdown, Jared Cook six touchdown, But the Saints were penalized heavily twelve for one twenty three in the penalty department, and then Atlanta real quickly. Uh. They lose to Tampa Bay thirty five to twenty two. I guess the Falcons are who we thought they were after a two week surge there one in four straight up in Mercedes ben Stadium.

Matt Ryan twenty three or forty six for two seventy one, but he was sacked six times. It was his lowest rated game of this season, despite the fact that Calvin Ridley caught six passes for eighty five yards in the touchdown. So this is a revenge game, real quick for the Saints again, huge lead in the South. But the Falcons, if we recall two weeks ago in the NFL eight days ago, went in there and just destroyed them at New Orleans. I'll say it's New Orleans minus six on

the road. Here, Well, I see six and a half and seven. Um, probably a little more six and a half. I'm gonna open this one seven deal. Uh. You talked about the revenge factor. I think the revenge factor will be very much in New Orleans favor this week. Uh. You know, they did get really thoroughly embarrassed by this Atlanta team. Atlanta got their come up and s yesterday. Like you said, I think they are who we thought

they were. They had been playing really, really well for a couple of weeks, but I think they got exposed yesterday Ordinarily, you know, game like this, i'd probably favored the dog, but I don't favor the dog in this spot. They'll probably take the seven off me. So if you're out there and radio land listening, line up quick because we're gonna open at seven, they'll probably take it off me fairly quickly. But but I'm gonna take of that

on New Orleans. I think New Orleans probably the right side here, and I'm not sure I'm gonna mark that as one of the games I like, but I do kind of like them. I think New Orleans stumbled to the game yesterday. They have the focus of being embarrassed by Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. In a short week like this, I ordinarily liked the better coaching staff. I think it's probably one of the better coaching staffs in the league. With New Orleans, I'm not so sure

about Atlanta. So I think I favor the Saints in this one. How do you feel about the p I reversal? Jeff? Did you like it? I thought that it was p I, but I haven't. We haven't seen that overturned all a year, basically, so it was it was odd to see river On actually get that one correct. Granted, it was another another fantastic day of just ridiculously terrible and NFL officiating across the board. I agree with you, though, I think it

was the right thing to do. But the fact is we don't have precedents right around the league where they've been doing that. They've been reversing, although now it seems like they're reversing some of these that perhaps a bit of a higher rate than they have been. Nonetheless, though some Saints fans and money liners will say justice was served when Slide missed the twenty eight yard and Lutz was able to speak in a thirty three yard. We will go to Sunday and we'll get some lines for

week thirteen. We'll move on. Chris Andrews, the South Point Sports book director, is with us. Of course. You can follow him on Twitter at Andrew's Sports, follow me at Beating the Book, followed Jeff Parley at Jeff Parl's p A R L E. S About that, we'll come back.

We'll get some lines right here on a numbers game and visa and it's all brought to you by the bet MGM app fall the most exciting time of year, of course, at New Jersey's ultimate online destination for fans who want to wager on football, pro and college basketball, hockey and more. And this week, bet mgm is a special offer for new customers and on tonight's match h matchup, I should say between the Ravens and the Rams, just use Bonus Cote Visa one place a one dollar pre

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Welcome back to a Numbers game with Gill Alexander. Do you think when Brent goes back in his career and he's like, I did all these sports, I did the US Open, I did college football approval, do you think he do you think he adds the man escape stuff to that list? Now? Do you think it's part of them? I want to send a shout out. We get tweets, of course that beating in the book Shy City. Brian sent this in a little Frank Gore didn't want to let the Frank Gore thing just linger there or just

sort of fall. One of my favorite Gore stats. He he tweets this out. This is not Brian talking about something that he tweeted out. Frank Gore leading the twenty nineteen Bills in rushing yards, which would be the fifteenth time in his fifteen year career that he's been his team's leading rusher. Nobody has done that, not even Emmett Smith. So another thing for the Frank Gore Hall of Fame resume. You think hall of fame resume you think he's a Hall of Famer, Jeff, I mean he to me, he's

the perfect definition of Hall of very good. But here's the problem when you're the third. I know, in baseball we have the the accumulators who make their way into the Hall of Fame. That's right, the counting stats. Yeah, but but Gore, I mean, look longevity for a position that doesn't have longevity these days. Either. Either, I don't know how you're gonna And also, you know, you know absolutely, you know also that that he's beloved by the folks that cover the game as well, so he's gonna get

in because of that as well. He's all these great stats, he's all so very passionate apparently about his Hall of Fame status as well. He'll give you his resume, so I think, I think, absolutely, Okay, he'll get in. It may not be first ball, but he'll get in. Absolutely. We're bringing Chris Andrews back from the South Point Hotel Casino Sports Book. Chrissie, shall we continue with Sunday games? Sir?

Before we continue, I could see money showing on Buffalo pretty much everywhere, So I will open this game six and a half. I do see a six and a half out there, but a lot of seven, uh, you know, guys, eight moving off numbers, there's a lot of seven with juice on the dog. But I'm gonna open six and a half. I guess we do everything of eleven and time here at the South Point. It's come to me, all open six and a half the yeah, yeah, and I'll say I take the six and a half before

I'd lay it. Yeah, well six and a half. That's what I figured it would be six and a half. It is now twenty minutes into the show. All right, let's go Sunday, Sunday morning, Green Bay at the New York Giants. You know, I had more difficulty, I was telling Parlay before the show. I had more difficulty coming up with this line than anything because Green Bay last night got smoked by the Niners thirties seven to eight.

My goodness, did they? Uh as three point dogs? By the way, green Bay smoked thirty seven eight Aaron Rodgers twenty of thirty three for one oh four. Let me repeat that, Aaron Rodgers twenty of thirty three for one hundred and four yards, passing one touchdown note picks. He was sacked five times, one point seven yards per pass play when he was in the game, The Packers were one of fifteen on third downs. The Packers with a grand total of one hundred and ninety eight total yards.

They got into an early hole when Fred Warner sacked Rodgers on the opening drive, forced to fumble that Nick Bosa recovered at the two forty, Niners broke it open. Then late in the first half, after forcing the Packers to punt following the two minute warning, Garoppolo throws a forty two yards of Deebo Samuel a cap of three play drive made it twenty to nothing, and then, as if that wasn't enough before the half, the Niners then fourced to three and out took over at their own

forty eight. With twenty four seconds left, Garoppolo completes the twenty two yard to Kittle Chase McLauchlin forty eight yard field goal twenty three to nothing at halftime, Katie bar the door. And then there's the Giants, who, as we mentioned, lost to the Bears nineteen to fourteen. Although they did cover for most uh, they dropped their seventh straight clinched their third losing season in row. Danny Dimes twenty one of thirty six for one fifty two touchdowns, no picks,

Uh sacked once. The Giants were one of twelve on third downs, they were two or four and fourth downs. They only had two forty three total yards against the Bears. Sae kwon Barkley. By the way, fifty nine yards rushing is this is a thing, Jeff, fifty nine yards rushing. For sake, kwon UH seventy two, sixty four, twenty eight and one in his previous first four games back from the high right ankle sprain, So I guess we can

still chalk this up to the injury. But let me just repeat that for sake, kwon last five games seven two one and yesterday fifty nine yards. Aldre Rose's missed two field goals, New York falling to seven and twenty now straight up underhead coach Pat Shermer, seven and twenty. So because the Packers got smoked last night, Christmas was hard for me to come up with. But I'm gonna act like I'm gonna kind of act like that didn't

happen because it's the Giants. So I'll still say Green Bay by a touchdown on the road seven seven, you're a little high. It's six and a half. But this is a tough one for me to gil because I like green Bay going into the game yesterday along the Law of the Public was on green Bay. The Sharp guys were on San Francisco. Um, well, you know, I don't think the Niners were actually all that great. I think,

really green they was just terrible. Um. You know the one thing about Barkley, they just don't have many weapons on the Giants. I think you could really, you know, focus your defense on Barkley and take away almost every the Giants want to do. Uh, boy, I don't know that. Like I said, this is a top one. I'm anna open six and now I think that's okay. But I'm

not a strong opinion on this game whatsoever. Uh you know, can Rogers be as bad as he look Estra, I don't think he can, to be honest with you, But we'll see if I mean, it's a very weak defense that he's playing this week, and I think he'll be I think I think he'll rebound. Um because he really has been he has been kind of inconsistent this year. But this is the kind of defense he could get healthy with. And I think you will this week. Let me ask you this because you you just brought it

up with San Francisco. Obviously Green Bay looked terrible, and you you mentioned you said, I don't think San Francisco even looked all that great in victory after New England's win, and I get it was in clement weather, but they just get by the Cowboys. Isn't the headline in the NFL that every single team is incredibly flawed and that there is just no super team at all, not even close. Yeah, I mean you look at New England. I mean, listen, their defense is terrific. But I said it last week

on the show. I really haven't been tested all that greatly. They're deep, their schedule gets a lot tougher down the stretcher, but including last night's game. We thought that was yesterday again, we thought that was gonna be a bigger test the defense, and they passed with flying colors. Now the weather had something to do with it, but they completely took a Maori Cooper out of that game. Zinky All Elliott has

had some decent numbers, not great the decent um. Yeah, but you know, to get back to your crushing, every team is just not great. This year, and I think I think the teams that are healthy and I think playing the best defense down the stretch are probably going to be the teams that that you know, make it, uh you know, I hate to say make it to the super Bowl, but let's say make a deep playoffs run.

And I think that's I think that's gonna be the key down the stretch because the offense is you know, can least opt in a lot of ways, and you know on a lot of the top tapes and uh Green that they'd certainly be in one of them. I'm just trying to think about all these teams, and Jeff, you help me out if I'm forgetting anybody. New Orleans probably should have lost to Carolina yesterday, just thinking about

the good teams. Seattle's nine and two, But you know, I don't think anybody thinks they're a super team there. They're a lot of them on the strength of one guy, perhaps on each side of the ball. Um. You know, Tonight's game, in many ways, as a referendum, is an interesting game, a referendum on both sides of the ball. One are the Rams going to make a run here in nineteen right the year after they get to the super Bowl. They're six and four right now, there's no

reason they can't get to the playoffs. But a game like tonight will really show us is this team any good or are they done? You know, it's a type of game tonight where it's really a full grum game for them. And then the question I was just asking you, Crizzy, the Ravens might be that team that could show us as early as tonight that oh we're over here, we're the team that's better than everybody. So that that tonight's

games super fascinating to me. With the Ravens again three and a half point favorites in this one, yeah, you know, I know, tell the other team that kind of keep your eye on that. And I hate to say this because we're in a very vulnerable position with them, but keep your eye on Buffalo. I mean, they could shut you down defensively. I say Josh Allen that he's getting better. I mean, I don't want to put him in the either in the in the top half of quarterbacks in

the NFL. But you know, they're a team that can win some games, and uh, you know, I think they're gonna be dangerous down the stretch. And in the playoffs because that defense is just that good. I'm not buying yet, but I will give you full credit if that. Actually, yeah, let's do one more are on Sunday. Oh you'll love this one. You're washing your Redskins against Carolina. You cannot eliminate the Washington Redskins, Ladies and gentlemen. Before Thanksgiving dot

dot dot Before Thanksgiving, Redskins are two and nine. We talked about the beating the Lions. Dwayne Haskins again when the Redskins were in victory formation was taking selfies there, so we left to get that worked out. Carolina, as we mentioned, lose to the Saints, but probably should have won that football game for many reasons. Um Quentin Dunbar, by the way, for the Redskins picked off Jeff driscoll final minute Dustin Hopkins with the go ahead field goal

from thirty nine yards out with sixteen seconds left. Skins won that nineteen to sixteen break a four game losing streak. Dwyne Haskins Jr. Thirteen of twenty nine for one fifty six, no touchdowns, one pick, three sacks. Terry McLaurin was his big target, bigg Ish five for seventy two Redskins only had two hundred thirty total yards. Let's not get crazy. They had eight penalties for sixty three yards. They still are the Redskins. Josh Norman, by the way, in uniform,

but only saw the field on special teams. How about that, Josh Norman, he of the large five year deal in his fourth year, only sees the field on special teams. Carolina in defeat yesterday, Kyle Allen twenty three or thirty six for two fifty six, three touchdowns and not picks.

He was sacked four times, and Kristin McCaffrey just Christian McCaffrey twenty two of sixty four with a touchdown, nine catches for sixty nine yards with an additional touchdown, and d J. Moore finally got in the end zone a couple of times, six for one twenty six for two touchdowns. I'll say Carolina by ten. Yeah, you're you're right on. It's can I see one ten and a half nice, but I think ten and ten it's a good number. Yeah. Really,

the Redskins were awful yesterday, Terry more awful team. Yeah, yeah, I mean so, let's not I'll tell you what CAROLINEA. It's not bad. They could have won that game. And whatever the kicker's name is, I'm sure he's looking for a job this morning. Yeah yeah, he really cost him that game yesterday. But yeah, I think tens a good number to start. Let's not get too crazy with Washington always dangerous laying double digits. But Haskin has taken the selfie.

I mean, how perfect did that? That is? Right there? What a great way to put it. How perfect is that? It? Really? HiT's poetic? Is what it is. Joe, thisman who used to wear a number seven, and who actually granted Dwayne Askin's permission to wear seven because it was sort of this semi retired number in the franchise. He just elite is not happy with that yesterday. So Carolina, mine is taken, and that's what it is. That's what you're saying. Makes

makes sense to me, sir, Okay, take a break. Let's do a couple more guessing lines Week thirteen in the National Football League, trying to extract some value. I don't know if we found that much yet. See if we can't coming up on a numbers game in visa, Welcome back to a numbers game. With Gil Alexander. Back in studio, Gil Alexander with Jeff Parlay produced number five and Patient X Loose in the corner. He denies it vehemently, but we're pitting this on everybody in studio. I did not,

but everybody's studio got sick. Jeff was really sick. Missi and Paul were sick as well. On the on following Money before Us, the gentile version of the show, and uh, we're all we're blaming loss Loose was the guy A hundred percent all on Lost hundred said, even though he'll deny it till the till the days, that's right, see Los, He's okay now, So just don't let it happen again. Let's get some more lines. Week thirteen, Christie Andrews is here.

What do we got next? There? By the way, that's why I do this show from home, exactly, that's great. My doctor would murder my wife would murder me. She's in the next room. I did that stuff. I don't know why she would know. She stands to do pretty good if I kicked the buckets. So anyway, well that took a turn. Jeez. Yeah, well that's my believe me. That's my darling, she's I know she's listening, so she'll hopefully laugh at that. We're on the aircraft, yes like um. Anyway,

Next up those San Francisco forty Niners in the Baltimore Ravens. Man, wow, that's a good game. Well San Francisco. Of course, as we mentioned, they beat the h they beat the Packers, not just beat him, beat him, beat him silly. Last night again thirty seven to eight taking on the Ravens, who we have not seen yet. Again. The Ravens take on the Rams at l A tonight, their three and a half point favorites on the road in that one. Jimmy Garoppolo yesterday, Jimmy g just sort of to your point, Chris,

about how great were the Niners on offense. They didn't really have to do much. Fourteen of twenty for two fifty three, two touchdowns and no picks. He was sacked three times. Niners didn't convert a third down in the first half of that game. George Kittle back in the lineup, and man, is that a big difference for the Niners. Six catches for one touchdown for him back from knee and ankle injuries. The Niners um not only they go to Baltimore here, but then they go to New Orleans

the following week. So that's a two game, a two week stretch here for the Niners, where we are going to the proverbial learn a lot about this football team in the next two weeks. And let me just make this note about the Niners last night. I was talking to uh Parlay about this before. They allowed seventy eight points the past three weeks in two games against Kyler

Murray and Russell Wilson. Then they get the traditional pocket passer like Aaron Rodgers yesterday, and they allow a grand total of one yards on seventy plays, didn't allow a single completion longer than fifteen yards. So I'm wondering, as a sort of handicapping note with the Niners, maybe against mobile quarterbacks, a little more of an achilles heel, if I may use that expression, thank you very much, Maybe

more of an achilles heel for the Niners. Then against the pocket passer, who they just absolutely destroy, even the likes of Aaron Rodgers. So let me just sort of throw that out there. But I'll say this is a Baltimore, So I'll say it'll be Baltimore Baltimore is three and a half tonight at the Rams. I'll say there'll be three and a half at home against the Niners. Well, I keep three and a half and four. There's some lineering numbers out there that the guys who had opened

it higher, who you know, going into yesterday's game. They opened the history morning like four and a half and five, which I thought was a little high, but I put it the more I looked at San Francisco. I mean, they were they were good, but I think, you know, it really was a defensive game. Here's an interesting stat. I was looking at a garoppolo. He was, you know, fourteen to twenty two or fifty three yards, twelve point seven per attempt, two touchdowns, no interceptions. His past serating

was one point eight, which is terrific. This QBR eighteen point two. Oh that's interesting. Now, that is interesting. And like I said, I always don't really know what goes into QBR. I mean it's one of these like a secret recipe like Coca cola. I mean it's in a you know, safe somewhere. I don't know how they find it, but I do like looking at it. It just gives you a little bit of a different perspective. Um, because I didn't think they were that great yesterday. That's almost impossible.

That's almost impossible. What you just one quarterback right at one forty five point eight, just to refresh people's memories, is out of one fifty eight point three scorely old school passer rating. The QPR is scored out of a hundred, and it was what eighteen point two? There you go? Yeah, I mean, but anyway, I checked on that. I think three and a half and four. You know, at least I gotta check on that. I don't think I made a mistake, but I might have because anywhere I like

the four a little bit. I am correct. Jeff confirms are correct. Yeah, Um, I like the four a little bit better. And it's funny because I kind of like the ramps tonight a little bit. Um, But I so, I think Baltimore won't look that great tonight and the number might come down a little bit. But I I like four a little better here. Um, I didn't know that statu you had talked about pocket passers versus mobile

quarterbacks for San Francisco's defense. But I think Baltimore is just a little bit better, and I think they observed to be a four point favorite, so that's what I'm going to open them. Then, of course we've got Knight's game, so I will close that up at post time. Knight. Yeah. I use the word referendum to talk about the Rams and the Ravens tonight, Well, referendum game between the Niners

and the Ravens. About the Niners next week. You know, these are these are real interesting games as we head closer and closer to the postseason. Let's do one more here Tennessee in Indianapolis. All right, well this has to be three. Let's just start there. Am I right about that? Definitely? Yes? Okay, yes, not much Chelsea could be Yeah, another a f C South game seemingly every week against two teams that are cozied up to five. Both of these teams are six

and five. Tennessee against Jacksonville yesterday. By the way, Tennessee won that game forty two to twenty in a game that really wasn't that close. As it turned out, they did at his four point favorites. The Titans scored four touchdowns over a span of excuse me, six offensive plays

in the third quarter. Let me repeat that, four touchdowns over the span of six offensive blaze in the third quarter for the forty two to twenty route Ryan Tannehill talking about you know, Garoppolo only through twenty passes, Ryan Tannehill was fourteen of eighteen for two fifty nine two touchdown passes, UH, no picks. He was sacked once, but he did score twice on the ground seven carries for

forty yards and two running touchdowns. The Titans are four in one now straight up with Tannehill as their quarterback. Remember Marcus Mariotta, everybody, anybody remember that guy? Long gone? Derrick Henry doing his late season thing. Nineteen carries a hundred fifty nine yards, two touchdowns. He becomes the first player in the NFL since two thousand six to score two touchdowns within twenty seconds. So what he did yesterday? A j Brown was Tannehill's biggest target of his fourteen

completions four catches for one thirty five a touchdown. The Titans racked up four hundred and seventy one totally yards against the Jags, two hundred nineteen of which were rushing. UH. Titans tied with the Colts and the Raiders just outside the a f c's final wild Cards wild Card spot the next two opponents, by the way, with both of them on the road, this first one at Indianaples and then at the Raiders. The Colts for their part um, as we mentioned, this was a Thursday game, they lost

to the Texans. Jacoby Pricette was sixteen of twenty five in that game for just one twenty nine no touchdowns. No Pixie was sack one's Jonathan Williams in Marlon max absence their biggest rushing threat one O four and a touchdown. They were nine of fifteen on third downs in that game. But it's three, and you said it's three, and there's nothing else it could be. Yeah, I mean, you know there are some like three minus so five minus thirty. So it's just gonna be three. And I think this

number probably gonna stay there pretty much all week. Um, you know, Gil by the way, you were talking by QBR Marcus Mariotta, he had the lowest QBR in any starting quarterback who started any significant amount of games until he was unseated by Mason Woundolf. This dealer is a little later we will but uh, you know, Tannehill, I'm just wondering was he didn't just suffer from poor coaching. I mean, he was the first round draft pick, don't forget a couple of years back. But he's playing some

pretty good football. And like I said, I really like Mike Brabel was a coach. I like Frank Wright as a coach. Is I think it's a really interesting game and uh, you know, I can't wait to see this one should be good. And Ryan Tannehill, of course, one of those guys who only played a couple of handful of games at quarterback in college before he was drafted. As as such in the National Football League. We'll come back. We'll get some more lines coming back right here in

the numbers game at FEASTA. Support for today show is always comes from bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Professional players consider them must for three reasons. Everybody together the first to post dots, they take the highest limits, and they pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player. Ever, that is huge

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three hundred dollars. That's Bookmaker dot eu slash gill to join and claim you're welcome bonus of up to three hundred dollars Bookmaker dot eu slash gill. It's a numbers game with your host, Kill Alexander. Do you want built as they believe in analytic Yes, I am. It is a numbers game right here in Visa Vegas Stats that Information Network, Serious x M Channel two oh four, Visa dot com, the Visa A good morning to you once again.

Everybody is Gil Alexander. Jeff Barrls, producer number five, is here as well, and clearly the most impressive thing on this program so far this morning is that Chris Andrews, when asked what is Elkabo, immediately said, isn't that an alias for a quick drama graw? And he's absolutely correct. Again, James will lead us tonight. Elco bong. This circu sports million quarterly needs the rams of the rams cover chop seventy plus thousand dollars in his pocket? Man, that dude,

good for him. We'll try to get James on the show tomorrow, win or lose. How about that. We'll get James on there, get some of his handicapping thoughts and his approach. Let's get some more lines. Chris, by the way, el COmON Quick Drama, grow, well done, great knowledge on your part. I have so much useless information floating around in bond brain. It's ridiculous. Trap steel trap your mind.

Oh yeah, what's Philadelphia at Miami? Okay? Let me? Can I just apologize to people because about two was it like six seven weeks ago? I don't. At some point into the NFL season, we were doing quarterback tiers and my whole point of the whole subject was to show how few great quarterbacks there actually were. And I came up with a list I think of six of the time, and for some reason I felt generous and generous rather and I added Carson Wentz into that group. How stupid

does that feel? Right now? Let me just the the sort of the caveat with this is Carson Wentz, doesn't have DeShawn Jackson, didn't have al Shon Jeffrey again yesterday, didn't have Nelson Aglor, didn't have Jordan Howard. Lane Johnson was out, and we've talked about for years now, a couple of years. Anyway, Lane Johnson means so much to that Eagles team in terms of just strict wins and losses.

Brandon Brooks left the game in the first quarter. They're starting right guard, so caveat is he They were really depleted on offense. I get it. However, if I may just say, there were some throws yesterday from Carson Wentz, and this is going on for a couple of weeks now, but yesterday it was like there was one Miles Sanders where he was wide open. He could have just lollygagged into the uh into the not lolligand, but he could have just traped on into the end zone. All he

died is like a little seven yard floater. Carson Wentz through that ball about fourteen yards. There was one, and he's real loose with the football of a sudden. So I don't know what's going on with Carson Wentz, but the Eagles lose to the Seahawks in a game that the Seahawks probably should have won one thousand to three, but they end up losing its seventeen to nine. Do the Eagles uh? The Seahawks covered the two and a half point spread at Philly Yesterday mentioned all those guys

that the Eagles were missing. Both of those offensive linemen were Pro bowlers. By the way, they couldn't do much on offense. They hurt themselves with three tone three turnovers by the way inside Seattle territory and another near midfield. By the way, rookie first round pick Andre Dillard was forced to make his first career start at right tackle after playing the left side all season, and he was

benched at halftime. So that's how well that went. Wentz in the statuet thirty three or forty five for two fifty six, one touchdown, two picks, sack three times, lost two fumbles, including one on a handoff exchange. Wentz quote, I gotta be better, no excuses. It starts with me. Zach Ertz continues to be his favorite target. Twelve for ninety wanted a touchdown, So five total turnovers four the Eagles in that game minus three turnover difference, but they're

going to Miami, which is always the tonic. Miami loses to Cleveland yesterday forty one to twenty four. They do not cover. But let me just say this, did anyway see that last right before Cleveland's last touchdown? There was a pick that got reversed on a flag. There was a there was a roughing flag. Did you see that play? Parlay? I did not think that flag should have had Miami me in a teaser that went down because of that call? Was that that have been thrown? Ridiculous? And so Miami

doesn't cover. Probably should have, certainly should have for teasers, but they don't do anything in the end. Um Fitzpatrick two touchdowns, two picks, sack four times five forty five on the grounded other touchdown. Miami secondary was missing three starters in that game yesterday. Oh that said, Philly is gonna be a seven and a half road favorite. How about that for decisiveness? Pretty pretty close? I see anywhere from seven and a half all up to nine. Okay,

I think the nine is way too high here. I gotta tell you, I kind of like your number. I think I'm gonna open eight though, just kind of be in the middle. This is a tough game because I'll tell you what, you know, Carson Wentz, it's not you know, I'm not sure you should have put him word did

I mean absolutely clearly? I was, Yeah, right, clearly. Well, let's not forget only a couple of years ago he was the favorite for the m v P s uh late in the season before he got hurt, you know, and then the Philly went on to win the Super Bowl without him. And we'll get the Nick Foles pretty quick too, you know. But uh, you know, he was missing an awful lot. But the Philly team is missing an awful lot. And uh, I think that's one of the key issues here, not just wins, but the whole

team right now is just really really banged up. Um. I think Miami is a pretty good chance, uh, you know, certainly to cover. I don't about when, but I think they have a terrific chance of covering. I think it's just very high number. I'm going to open eight. Uh, they'll probably lay it to me, but that's okay. I'm gonna take a bet on phil on Philadelphia and probably gonna need Miami in the same Philadelphia five and six, just a game out in the NFC East or Dallas

or otherwise stated. The Redskins are just four out Chris, how about that for him? And there's a chance. So you're saying, there's a cheese. All right, let's do one more. So a couple more? What you gotten? Oakland had Kansas City? Oakland at Kansas City, by the way, moved to the afternoon. Moved to the afternoon. Okay, because I always chronically overrate Kansas City. Here, my my guests will probably be higher than the market. Oakland finally shows themselves, I think a

little bit. Yesterday. Oakland loses to the Jets. Not just lose, they lose thirty four to three as six point excuse me, as three point three and a half point road favorites Oakland, who had, let's put it this way, they you know, if Cincinnati were any kind of a football team, Oakland probably loses that game last week to them. Oakland had a win probably against the charges they probably shouldn't have had. But they get exposed a little bit by the Jets yesterday,

maybe a lot. Thirty four to three. Derek Carr fifteen of twenty seven for one twenty seven, no touchdowns, one pick was sacked ones. By the way, that pick was a pick six. He was pulled by coach John Gruden with just under two minutes left in the third quarter. Derek Carr. Now, we we go after Jared Goff when it's in clement weather. We're always like, oh, Jared Goff, California. Boy, Look how he looks like a deer in headlights. It's

only thirty two degrees not not thirty two below. For goodness sake, here's Derek Carr's record Now in games where the temperature starts below fifty degrees fahrenheit, and it was forty three at kickoff yesterday. Guess what his record is in eleven games straight up? Jeff under fifty degrees and two and nine good? Not good? Uh? Glenn and Mike Glennon, or as Gruden called him in hard Knocks. Glennon was four of seven for twenty yards yesterday. Josh Jacobs ten

carries thirty four yards. Oakland gets housed by the Jets. We'll get to the Jet side later. Kansas City coming off the extra rest here, coming off by I'll say the Chiefs minus ten, and I'm very prepared that that's gonna be way too high. Oh, you're right on. I see a couple of nine and a halves, but ten is certainly the phenominant number. And I'm gonna open ten um far. I'd really played some pretty good football, but you know, when we look back, you know, maybe against

some very weak opponents. And uh, I think that I have to take note of though um openly went. Uh they got a lot of wives guy money yesterday. Wives guys were all over Oakland. Um. So I try to take that into account because maybe they saw something that I haven't seen. But they got annihilated yesterday by not a very good team. Although we'll get to the Jets a little later. Uh So, I think ten's okay. Kansas City off some extra rest me o. Andy Reid's record off the Bay is very very good, and uh, I

think ten's a good number here. I'd be careful lane too many points, but I think ten's probably a pretty decent number. Jamal Adams of the Jets yesterday after that game quote, I don't want to sound very arrogant or two cocky talking about the Raiders fans now who showed up at at this game, but I think they came in a little too happy. I think they thought it was going to be an easy game. He felt the need to say that afterwards. I kind of get it alright,

So it's ten. Let's do one more Tampa at Jacksonville. Oh geez, there's a game to four and seven teams. Uh, Tampa Bay with their second winning their last seven games yesterday, congratulations to you Bucketeer fans. Beat the Falcons as I mentioned, thirty five to twenty two, as three point dogs went it out right, Jamis, It was good Jamis yesterday eighteen twenty three, thirteen, three touchdowns, two picks, wasn't sacked. It's his sixth straight. You fantasy folks know this kind of thing.

Jamis Winston's sixth straight three yard passing game, though, of course, in typical Jamis fashion, you have to quickly after the commissay though. Of course he's been picked off in NFL high twenty times. That is Jamis Winston. Chris Godwin continuing to be his his biggest target seven of four for two touchdowns. Uh. Seems to outstat Mike Evans pretty consistently now four hundred and forty six total yards of offense

for the Bucks yesterday. And then there's the Jaguars, who we mentioned got crushed by the Titans and that flurry of touchdowns in the third quarter. Nick Foles yesterday for the Jaguars thirty two for two seventy two, no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times, Leonard four nine seven with two touchdowns. Jags were penalized eleven times for a hundred four yards. They had nine set when they played the Titans the first time the Jaguars, they sacked

Marcus Mariota nine times. You remember that. Not to pick on Mariota, but they sacked him nine times. Yesterday they sacked Tannehill only once. That clearly the most glaring difference between their two games against the Titans. Um, it's Tampa Bay, it's Jacksonville. Both teams are met Um, it's probably not Jacksonville minus three. I just split the difference between the three and a pick him. I'll say it's Jacksonville minus

one and a half. Seems fair, Yeah, very good. You know it's it's one, but mostly one and a half. Actually one and a half, so okay, you know we're talking about two b R. We caught a little while ago. Uh him, Jameis Winston Clayton. Well, he was eighteen eight or thirteen yards eleven point two per attempt. He did have those two interceptions, no sacks, three touchdowns, two interceptions,

no sacks. Ninety point eight was his QBR. That's pretty high. Again, I'm not sure what all goes into it, but I went to guests did be anywhere near at ninety point eight out of a hundred to b R that that teems pretty high. Um, yeah, kind of shocking when I was going through the numbers earlier this morning. Uh, you know at Jacksonville, you know there's kind of a myth team. Uh, I guess one and a Half's okay, I could see one either either of those two numbers. I guess I'll

start on one and a half. You know, like we had good jamis yesterday and oftentimes we don't get good jamis, So we'll go with one and happens. Who were the public wants to take me on? No? One. I asked a question at the end of every Beating the book Megapod that I do with Mike Palm and Todd Wishnev each and every week, and one of the final two questions is always if you if you had if we lived in a bizarro world and we had to bet a side on every single one of these games. But

you were allowed one free pass. What would be the game you would want no part of? I would think Tampa Bay at Jacksonville is your early it's your early front runner for that. Who knows what you get to that game. That's the leader in the clubhouse at this point. Yeah, Barlow, you agree with that. I was gonna I was gonna make it a three dollar favorite to be uh, the number one choice. Absolutely. Okay, we'll continue. We'll try to extract some value. This kind of difficult this week. Uh,

these are pretty tight, these lines. We'll come back. We'll get some more Week thirteen, a lot more to get to, at least six more games, I believe. Coming up right here on a Numbers gaming visa. It's brought you by the bet MGM app. As always, New Jersey's ultimate online destination of fans who want to bet on football, pro and college basketball, hockey, and much much more. In this week bet MGM with the special offer for new customers

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dot com for the fullest of terms and conditions. Gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler, It's the bet mgm app. Coming back Guessing lines Week thirteen in the NFL. I can breathe right here on Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with kill alexand big news here at Visa we're in the beer business. Well, if you know that, parlay, you're aware of it. Today Vison is announcing the launch

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in the desert. Go to Bookmaker Blonde dot com for details. That's book maker blonde dot com winning taste better with the Visa book Maker Blonde coming back guessing lines we thirteen in the National Football League. It's Skil Alexander. Jeff parl is here and of course my Chrissie Andrews on the phone the South Point Hotel, Casino sports book director. Uh, let's do some more of these, Chris. We got a whole bunch more to get to. Ok. Uh, the New

York Jets at the Cincinnati Banks. The Bengals. Bengals are owing eleven. I don't know if you know that, Uh. Jets, as we've jests, as we mentioned Jeff Parl's boyhood team. Uh. The Jets crushed the Raiders, as we as we pointed out, thirty four to three. Sam Donald yesterday twenty nine for three fifteen, two touchdowns, no picks. He was only sacked

once ran for another score. It's the fourth three yard game of his career, and it's the Jets the first three game winning streaking over two years since Week three through five Jeff of the seventeen season. The Jets did not punt in this game yesterday until the two minute mark of the third quarter. Robby Anderson was Donald's favorite target for for eight six and a touchdown. They out first down if you will the Raiders twenty one to ten. The Jets came in allowing the league low seventy nine

point one yards per game rushing. They gave up sixty eight to the Raiders. And then there's the Bengals. UH franchise records now for the worst start in the longest losing streak. They're owing eleven. Ryan Finley yesterday twelve one touchdown, no picks, was sacked four times in their loss to the Steelers. And by the way, that loss was sixteen to ten. And boy did the Bengals have their chances in that game. Tyler Boyd five catches for one on one in a touchdown, but the Bengals were two of

twelve on third downs. They only gained two hundred forty four total yards of offense. They had a chance, but Boyd made a catch was stripped by Devin Bush at the Steelers eight yard line in the fourth quarter that preserved the Steelers lead. And then Bud Dupree sacked Ryan Finley forced a fumble that he recovered with two thirty eight left to close out that ball game. So again, Bengals had their chances. They just couldn't get over the hump.

And really we'll get to the Steelers. Steelers just had that one big play from Duck Hodges to James Washington. Otherwise maybe the Bengals win this, but not to be Bengals O. Eleven. I'll say the Jets, who we left remember a couple of weeks ago when Sam Darnald when they won that first game of this three game when he street Sam, Donald was like a two and seven. He was like, you know, if we went out and we can still make the playoffs. Uh, there're four and seven.

There's still there's still a chance. Nobody's laughing now, but he's laughing now. Jets minus four, I will say at Cincinnati, because they're the Jets. Let's not get too crazy. Yeah, it's pretty much a solid three and a half. Hi, Wow, I thought you were high. Um, I'm not sure. I don't like your number better, but I'm gonna have put an asterisk next to this game. But this goes higher. I'm gonna go high. You know. Really, the Steelers didn't

win that game. The Bengals lost it, and uh we told the story a couple of weeks ago, a story time that had never been told about Kevin White, not his real name, who went crazy over the Bengals. Boy, if this one ain't making them crazy again, I don't know what. This team is just so awful. Uh, they are really bad. And the Jets, you know, I mean, if Donald holds the ball, I mean, if he protects the ball, doesn't throw in your stuff, and it doesn't bubble,

then they're not a bad team. They got a decent line up, and um, you know, I had a big questions about the coach, uh you know, questions about Donald of course, I think still we have to look at that going forward, because, like I said, he had this problem in college, he's had it in the pros, didn't have it yesterday. But he does not protect the ball well. But if he does, and then I think there's a little bit of a cheap number. But actually three and a half. I see three and a half with juice

on the dog a little bit. So I'm open three and a half. If I opened it four, I know they would jump all over. I'm gonna keep my eye on this one. I preferred higher thing, but we're gonna open three and half. Kind why would they jump on the Bengals? Though? Right, Like it seems like this is such a funny sentence, like, but why would they? Um, Zac Taylor, I think I'm made that joke yesterday. What a terrible way to die again, trampled the death by

guy he's running to the counter on the Bengal. That's right, Zach Taylor just continues to look bewildered in a j green. I guess is just punting on the season. He's just like, yeah, I could play, but I don't really feel like it. Um, Jeff, you're a lifelong Jets fan, how do you feel about this team here? Do you think they are? Seriously the

four and seven? They are not completely out there not making it because they're they That was their first win against the a f C this year, by the way, guilty, which is uh, well, if they were in the NFC East, they would be right in the thick of it because because there are three and one against the NFC East. The only loss was against with Luke Falk playing quarterback. Look, it's very simple with Sam Donald when he doesn't turn the ball over. Sam Donald's actually been pretty good in

his NFL career. It's just like we talked about it after the New England game in the Miami game, when he commits turnovers, it seems to come and in droves. I've never seen someone's spiral is badly once he gets the first turnover. Yeah, just in droves. But look, he's been great the last few weeks. They played some bad teams. They played Oakland yesterday, who look that was that game was never close after the first quarter is complete annihilation

after the first quarter. And look at when Donald protects the ball as Chris he said, He's right, Donald's actually pretty good. Uh. And that week one loss to the Bills for the Jets looms loss large for both teams because Buffalo is coasted into the playoffs because of that, and the Jets may miss by a game because of that. Alright, that's easy with the Jets, I said, Meg, big difference, just seven. I don't want to get too crazy about it, but that just shows you how the bottom of the

a f C playoff picture is looking. Right now that there at least did it technically, Um, all right, Christmas? Next the Rams at Arizona. All right, so we haven't seen the Rams yet. They play again tonight, good game at home against the Ravens. Will learn a lot about the Rams tonight. We'll probably learn a lot about the Ravens. Um Rams at Arizona, and Arizona's coming off a bye. So it's the site unseen Rams against the three seven and one always not, you know, never fun to bet

against three seven and one Arizona Cardinals. If that's a sentence that makes sense, because Kyler Murray is never fun to bet against. With the back door open. I mean, just as a placeholder, I would say Rams minus three and a half? What the what the Ravens are to the Rams tonight? I would say the Rams are to the Cardinals. Yeah, pretty evenly split between three and a half and four. I think I'm gonna open it four.

I expect the Rams to look good than I. Well, the RAM is just one of those interesting teams, so you look at some of the parts, is really pretty good. That they have not put it together this year, but you know they're They're a super Bowl team, you know, long ago. Let's not forget that, you know. So I mean, can they get it together? I think they can. And like I said, I expect him to play well tonight in Arizona, you know, coming off to Bye and they

probably do me a little something. Still don't like the coach down there. I've had my questions right from the start from Kylo Murray. But I'm ready to take a mea call for there. He's a lot there than I than I expected him to be. Uh, But I do like the four a little bit better. Like I said, it split between three and a half and four. I'm gonna open four myself and expecting ramps to show up tonight, and I think that will be the more predominant number

come tomorrow morning. Have I been more than a point or point and a half away from any of these today? Like this is a far cross from a few weeks back or four weeks ago with the famous Pittsburgh Miami one when I guess seven and a half and it was fourteen and a half and like the worst guest ever. But these lines are pretty pretty logical to me so far. Today There's still like a handful of opportunities here to mess up, so let me not speak too soon. What's next?

The chargers at the Broncos. Oh god, it's my Tampa baby, Jacksonville. Yeah, this is just rble. Uh. I told the story on

the megapod, I'll tell it right here. So when I was recovering, and again thank you to everybody who wrote such nice kind notes to me on Twitter at beating the book after my complications for my Achilles surgery, where again I had a a massive pulmonary embolism a saddle embulis a huge blood clot that was impinioning on my heart and was really touch and go there for a second for me but that was the night, like to give you an idea how completely surprising this all was

with me because I was just I was just short of breath. I mean, can't be that much wrong with me. They came in there and they said, oh, we gotta give you an immediate throw back to me. We gotta, we gotta you know, we gotta take care of you. We're admitting you. I'm like, what you're admitting me? And did you give you an idea how our brains are and how it takes a while to sink in. My first thought was, wait a minute, Uh, the Chargers are playing in the Charges are playing the Chiefs in Mexico

City at five AM. I gonna be okay for kick off of this game because I'd like to watch this football game. They're looking at me like I'm nuts, right, I really really so. I missed the first half of this game because I was under But by the time halftime rolled around, I was in a gurney in this in this sort of recovery room with other people in gurneys, and we couldn't see each other. We just knew each other where everyone was looking up at their own individual

TV screen, and so I asked them to. So I we all watched the second half strangers in this recovery room, and when Philip Rivers and the Chargers had that last drive, it was just hilarious to hear the common They were all united by the common uh acknowledge that the Chargers were never going to win that football game, right like they had. Everybody was like Rivers, like I could hear these different things people from their own recovery beds and

like same little Chargers Um. Chargers lost that game, of course to the chiefs Um they had to buy here there at Denver, Denver. Yesterday, Denver loses to Buffalo. As we mentioned twenty two three, they loses three and a half point dogs brand into Allen. There's another Allan for you, Chris Brandon Allen ten of twenty five for eighty two yards. Is that good? Zero touchdowns, one interception. He was sacked

four times. Here here were his stats in the second half, three of fourteen for four yards in the second half. I'm not making that up when you factor all the Saxon. By the way, the total total passing yards in the game for the for the Broncos was forty nine passing yards. Forty nine passing yards when you factor in the sacks. Drew Lock, everybody drew Lock. He spent the past two weeks practicing since being sidelined in August by an injury

to his right thumb. He would remain on i R the rest of the season if he's not activated by December three. So there is a there's a drew Lock decision coming up, if not this week then next. Not that that should excite anybody too much either. By the way, let me not make two big a deal of that. So do you make of that Chargers are at the Broncos? I mean, I could say Chargers minds three, But then I say, why would the Chargers deserve to be three

point favorites? And we just saw the Broncos play fairly well here in recent times. I'll split the difference. I'll say Chargers minus one and a half on the road at Denver, Yeah, it's one and a half and one. I'm gonna go with one and a half. Uh. You know, the White guys were all over Denver ship they play for them. I mean, and you know on the pod on our show last week, I Got Love Buffalo. You know, everybody open at four and a half. Five opened at

five and a half and they took it. And a lot of times I'll skip five, just go straight to four and a half when they take they you know, one of those sharp guys took the five and half. My guy, he went to four and half. I could just go back to five. Buffalo is gonna kill this, you know. And uh, obviously I'm wondering I see something really wrong here. Evidently it didn't. But you know, I don't know. This is this is a terrible game, and

I don't know. I guess one and a half between this and the Tampa Bay Again, I don't know which would be the one I stay away from the business. You imagine watching this game without a bed, So say, if betting didn't didn't exist. Two of eleven on third downs where the Broncos yesterday they had a hundred and thirty four total yards of offense on the stat sheet. Um, by the way, let me ask you a question before we get to one more. How many of these so

far have been afternoon games? Because yesterday the NFL did that thing right where they had nine early games, nine early games and then two afternoon games, which is really one game staggered to the next right one uh four oh five Eastern, one oh five Pacific, then another the Patriots of the Cowboys at four UM, and then the Sunday night games. So it was like nine games at once, and then standalone's like what are they doing? So how

many of these were afternoons so far? And then we've gone through uh, well seven so far, and then we've got one more. The next game is Cleveland Pittsburgh. They got foopped from a later game to one of the early games. So they probably did that because seriously, probably expecting some trouble with Cleveland to Pittsburgh and don't want to have too many drunken fans. So that's an interesting point. Much that's going to help. But that's, you know, my

opinion on this. And by the way, you know you're talking about your embolism and all that. Don't do that again, Gil, Yeah, please don't do that. Don't do that. I'm sorry, Yeah, I like I said, I was like, it's just I came scooting into the e er. They told you, the doctor said that they go, well, two things. Well, we gotta hand it to you. We don't usually see usually see people coming with this scooting on into the r

They usually keeled over too. We gotta go, we gotta put you under immediately, you know that kind of thing. So again, the lesson in all of this, ladies and gentlemen, listen to your bodies, Listen to you. I can attest to that I did my own stupid, stupid things when I had my disease. You know, so well, I think, can we just guys are idiots. Guys are idiots. Guys are idiots. You're one of your stories, and forgive me

if i'll just I'll just offer one. Is you were out, you were short of breath, and you would meet something, you would have a lunch date, and you would tell people, oh yeah, yeah, no, go ahead, I'll meet you there. Uh, you know, I just want to go to the bathroom kind of thing. But you knew that you were going to slow them down kind of thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Well I always say the final night, the final night is,

you know, I go get my keys from Valet. I had to walk about thirty feet to get to my car, and I'm like, well, can I have Like, I don't know if I can make it the thirty feet In the first spot that crossed my mind is steps Curry can make jump shots from here and I'm not sure I could walk that far, and we think, yeah, and listen to your bodies. All right. So you mentioned it's

Cleveland at Pittsburgh. This is the the rematch, revenge, whatever you want to call it from that Thursday night debacle in which Myles Garrett swung Mason Rudolph's helmet at him, and Myles Garrett has done for the year regular season in playoffs because of the suspension based on that and then the fallout afterwards. Myles Garrett late last week saying that Mason Rudolph had a racial slur against him. The NFL finds no evidence of that, but on and on

suspensions were rampant. UH in this situation. Marquise Pouncey served the first of his two games suspension, for instance, yesterday for kicking and punching Myles Garrett. UH. Steelers actually had a bunch of guys out. Juju was out still against Juju Smith Schuster, he was out with a concussion, James Conner with the shoulder injury, and their win against the Bengals yesterday. UM Let's start with Cleveland Baker Mayfield in that win against the Dolphins. Thirty four for three twenty seven,

three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once. Nick Chupp twenty one carries a hundred six yards and a touchdown. Jarvis Landry ten catches one forty eight in a touchdown. Oh b J six for eighty four in a touchdown. That's the first time Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Scored touchdowns in the same game as Brown's teammates. Hadn't done that the two of them since when they both played at l s U. I WoT that uh and then Pittsburgh and that win against Cincinnati. As we talked about,

they were playing shorthanded. Probably should have lost that game. But they now have, as you very well known as a Pittsburgh Steeler guy, Chris, they've got a quarterback decision. Mason Rudolph was eight of sixteen eight of sixteen for eighty five yards in the first half yesterday, no touchdowns, one pick, He was sacked once, and Mike Tomlin said,

that's enough of that. Devlin Duck Hodges come back on the field five of eleven for one eighteen, most of that on at seventy nine yard or to James Washington with a stiff farm for the Ages. One touchdown that was it for a Hodges, no picks sacked twice. Benny Snell Junior out of Kentucky twenty one carries for ninety eight yards for the Steelers in Connor's absence, Washington was three of ninety eight with at seventy nine yard touchdown, ten penalty seventy six yards, on and on. Anyway, it's

Cleveland at Pittsburgh. It's the rematch. And what Chrissy saying is right. The NFL braced obviously for this. I have a feeling everybody's going to be on good behavior. But because of the controversy here, if I can even use that term with the Steelers, will it be Rudolph, will it be Hodges? And I kind of think Mike Tomas got to go to Duck Hodges here. But because of that, um, this is kind of a coin flip to me, I'll

say it's a pick them again. I like your number better, but I see Cleveland one and one and a half. The thing about Pittsburgh right now, you mentioned, uh, you know the players that missed yesterday, and you know you almost have to assume they're gonna miss this game too. Juju Smith, Schuster, James Conner and Mike Pouncey is is definitely missing. You know, he's on suspension. Um that's three of their absolute biggest key guys to that offense. So

they'll you know, let's assume they're missing. And at this point, that's what I would think. Uh. And about the quarterback controversy, I think you gotta go with Hodges myself. I called for that yesterday during the game. But we're talking about Rudolph has the worst QBR of any player who's started any kind of significant amount of games, uh, this year. But you know, Douck Hodges was not much better yesterday. UM, Hodges two yards was twenty five point six, which is terrible,

even though his passer rating was one fifteen. And again, just a different way of looking at some stats because I'm you know, we get analytical. I'm not sure always what what's more important, what isn't. But it's just a different way of looking at it. But the team did seem to have a little bit of a spark when he got in there, and Uh, I gotta say this, I'm not I'm not crazed by him as a quarterback.

I thad be like one of these guys are gonna be serviceable as a backup throughout most of his career. But the racial thing that got acute that he was accused of. Even if he's innocent, and I hope that he is. I hope that he is. There's no way evans to say that he's not. And something I'll stay with him probably the rest of his life. And that's why I didn't. I don't like that, you know, with with no evidence whatsoever, and you know his teammates jumped

in to defend them right away. Well, I don't know. I think it's it's a shame that that that would get attached to a kid like that, and you know, a young player, uh like I said, with no evidence, But you know, I mean, that's just the way it is in today's in today's society. All that being said, Cleveland really played well yesterday. I think they had one of those games sort of coming because they do have

a very good lineup. We talked about Freddy Kitchen is not a very good coach, but they werenato the right opponent yesterday, and even then, I thought they did all they could to try to blow that game. I really did you know? So I do. I like to pick better, but I see a lot of one and a half, so I'm gonna open. I'm gonna open one and see where they take me with that. But if I see pick,

I'm gonna go to pick. And I don't think Pittsburgh should be a favorite with all the players that they do have out, But I'm not sure Cleveland should be a favorite either, And that you're talking about people on good behavior. Players on the field probably will be. The fans in the stands probably will not be good. Expect to see some fights in the stands. So I think that's why they moved this game. But drunken fans between Pittsburgh and Cleveland will not be a pretty site. Yeah,

I mean, right now, Pittsburgh six and five. If the playoffs, of you, if we did the old playoffs sort of beginning right now, thing, Pittsburgh's in as the six wild card team or the second wild card team, but the sixth playoff position, the final one at six and five. Oakland and the Colts, as we mentioned, tied with them as his Tennessee at six and five, and then it's the Browns just one game back of them at five and six, so this could still happen for both of

these football teams. Huge football game despite all the uh, you know, the extracurriculars from their last contest. It's an actual huge football game in terms of the season. The fates of these two nineteen seasons will come back. We'll do primetime games. By the way, the answer to the question was, there's a grand total of three afternoon games on Sunday. We have this little squorely because we have a three Thanksgiving games, but three late games on Sunday before,

of course the primetime games hit. We'll talk about those with Chris. It's a numbers game guessing lines right here. Week thirteen in the National Football League at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander and I just want to uh make some notes here or clear sometu. Indianapolis putting Eric Ebron on season ennging I r ankle injury, so that's a big loss for the Colts. And I mentioned right guard Brandon Brooks left the game in the

first quarter for the Eagles yesterday. Turns out he leaves, according to reports, due to an illness related to anxiety. He's been open about dealing with anxiety. Took to social media Monday to address what happened. Um just apparently he has a he has a routine where he wakes up and does a typical routine of morning vomiting. Geez uh, and it didn't go away like it normally does. So that's what forced him out of the game for the Eagles yesterday. The NASA and vomiting came back and until

he left the field. And so that's just another thing to add to the the Eagles personnel losses on offense yesterday against the Seattle Seahawks. We do have primetime game started Grocer out there Parl Barley first thing in the morning. But I just wanted to clarify that there was not an injury. Um So if you want to learn more about that, go to Brandon Brook's twitter. We got the primetime games week thirteen. Chris what he got Sunday night?

Pretty good ones Sumday night, New England at Houston. They flashed up this stat yesterday. Did you see this during the Cowboys game for New England about half time yes at Gillette Stadium. I didn't know that. Uh, the the adding yesterday's victory to this, the Patriots now at Gillette Stadium. I would imagine this is under Bill Belichick. I'm guessing ninety nine in one at Gillette Stadium when leading at

halftime ninety nine and one. That can't I mean, that has to extend past Belichick right now, Gillette Stadium during the Belichick because so it's all of the all of the games of Gillette rule game sorry, Raiders fans, was the last game at the old stadium there, and that was two thousand one. Yeah, okay, so well that was right around Belichick getting there right year after that was the first Super Bowl two year year two into his tenure. So ninety nine and one is what they finished with

the halftime lead. They had a halftime lead yesterday. That was their nin and a hundred such instances. It's the eighteenth straight regular season win for the Patriots at home. They've won ten games and seventeen consecutive season. That goes on and on and on. But I would like to say this is Tom Brady still in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Been teen of thirty seven from one nine one touchdown note picks, two sacks. Now again, horrible weather

yesterday in Foxboro. Typical New England kind of winter weather, a lot of precipitation. The wind was high to kill Harry uh in Kiel Harry rather Uh seventy five player to catch a touchdown pass from Tom Brady, extending an NFL record seventy five dude to catch a touchdown pass. Different guy, that is, to catch pass from Brady. Uh. The Patriots, though, had as much trouble as the Cowboys did. Really on third downs. They were three of thirteen on

third downs. There was no mohammedsan New yesterday. Philip Dorset, we're both ruled out. Uh. This is at Houston, Houston, coming off the extra rest. Now, remember they had the Thursday night win against the Colts in which Deshaun Watson went nineteen of thirty two nine two touchdowns, one pick, one sack. Will Fuller the fifth seven catches for one forty DeAndre Hopkins six catches, nine, two touchdowns. They were six of twelve on third downs of that game, New

England at Houston. I will say that this is New England minus three. And the reason and they don't make it more is this because if you're watching the New England Patriots, as good as that defense is again caveat and clement weather. But it even extends further back. That offense is not very good. So I'll say it's minus three on the road. You know, guilt's three with juice on the favorite. I do see some three and a half flat, uh, and three three and a half the

juice on the docks. I'm the open three and a half. I'll probably take it off me, but I think that's okay. I eight to play the street three and a half game all week, especially on a night game, because we'll do a ton of business and I have to avoid that. You know, this new England team a couple of things I want to say. First of all, it reminds me of that Broncos team that won the last their last Super Bowl with Peyton Manning, who was really just a show of himself at the end of the year or

that whole year. Really uh he was kind of like the game manager quote unquote. Then they had a great defense, not a very good offense, won the Super Bowl. I think Brady is probably not quite as bad as Peyton of that last year. Their defense probably as good. And if you need a game manager, is there a better one than Tom Brady? And uh, you know, um, you know Kubiak was a coach for that Bronco team. Well, I thought did a terrific job, and of course you got to go to check the coach of this team.

So I think they're still very, very viable as a Super Bowl. We got a favorite, you know, and I think they deserve to be that. They're really tough to beat down this stretch. But I do think uh Brady has certainly come back to the pack and he's probably in the upper half of quarterbacks. But a lot of that I think has to do with the fact that he knows how to win games rather than just go out of light up a scoreboard. He's not gonna be able to do that. But you know that's the NFL.

I mean, you gotta win games. It's not college. I mean college. You know, you go out and you gotta put you know, forty points on the board to win it in put twenty four on a you know on the board. Win most of your projemes. Uh, you know, we only put what they be out yesterday thirteen or what they have sixteen thirteen, whatever was, um thirteen. Yeah, and they won. Yeah, some pretty famtom tripping calls. I don't know what Cowboys got, so yeah, boy, I don't

know where that came from. I mean, I saw absolutely nothing on either one of them. Anyway, I'm gonna open three and a half. I think it should be a really, really good game. But you know, I'm not saying I'd lay the three and a half on the Patriots, but I probably lay three if that's what it was everywhere three flat. But I don't see three flat. I see three with juice on the favorite and three app juice

on the dogs. I'm gonna open three and a half. Yeah, phantom tripping call on Travis Frederick which really stifled the Cowboys attempts to come back and win that game. By the way of ninety nine and one, the only loss was that was that that Thursday night opener against the Chiefs in twenty seventeen. The Patriots were up seventeen to fourteen at the half, lost forty two to twenty seven twenty one and thing fourth quarter for the Chiefs that night.

Let's do the Monday night game real quick before we go on. I do want to say one thing. I just remember this, and I don't have the numbers with me, but Bill Walsh was kind of like the same way he wanted to build a big halftime lead and second halves he just was, you know, grinding it out, and

he knew how to win football games. And I gotta tell you one of the things that you know, when I was still out there betting quite a bit, I bet second halves under on those great Niner teams because they score a lot the first half, and everybody had high numbers for the second half, and most of those second halves went on. Bill just knew how to you know, run the football, just have a very controlled path in the game. And I s go check to kind of

the same thing, but the similar type quarterback too. By the way, Chrissy, let me let me, let me speak in, let me sneak in a break here. We'll come back, we'll do the Monday night game and we'll recap what we like, if anything. Tough week here week guessing lines on a numbers game right here at Welcome back to a numbers game with Alexander. All right, Chrissy, what's Monday night? We got the Vikings at the Seahawks. Vikings coming off by Seahawks remain undefeated on the road in six games,

first time in franchise history. Russell Wilson thirteen of twenty five and that win against the Eagles yesterday for two yards, one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked six times. Wow, Wilson first quarterback in NFL history to start his career with eight straight winning seasons. How about that? Wilson started all one d thirty six games since his rookie season, including thirteen in the playoffs. Rashad Penny yesterday fourteen for one fifty eight yard touchdown run. When did Rochard Penny?

By the way, when did Rashad Penny jeff eat Maurice Jones drew? When did he become a bowling ball? When did that happen? Good lord? Twelve penalties for ninety yards for the Seahawks yesterday. They were without Jadeveon Clowney, still got it done against the Eagles. I'll say Seattle minus two and a half at home against the Vikings. Well, I don't see any two and a halfs, but I see three with Juice on the So you know, we do everything eleven and ten, we're gonna open three. They'll

probably wind up taking it off me. But I try to hold before to three as long as I can because I know if I go to two and a half, so lay it right back. And that that's the other thing we talked about. You know how many games the point Sprade comes into playing two and a half to three or three to two and a half, and see how much action you created. It's quite a bit. So you know, it's what I made for the players and the different things for books makers. Uh, you know, looking

back on these, then, Chris, what do I like? I mean, this was the most pristine guessing of lines thus far this year. These were all really cozied up. So just my first instinct, and it's not much of an instinct, but my first instinct is kind of chalky, which hasn't been the case in recent weeks. Caroline is only quote unquote giving ten to the Redskins. I kind of like Carolina Casey giving ten to the to the Raiders. I

thought I was gonna be high. You tell me, it's I kind of like Casey Jets only giving three and a half or whatever it is on the road there to the Bengals. Those are kind of my instincts. What do you what do you like? Real quick? I like the Bills taking well seven and you can get it, but it's gonna probably disappear quickly. In the Saints, you can probably lay six and a half. I'm gonna open at seven myself. So those those do both on Thursday, and I ard that not much, not much at Yeah,

that's tough, Parlay and you reaction real quick. Tough week yet again. Yeah, very simply. I actually like I actually like my Jets laying three and a half. Cincinnati do too. I think, Sam darnall, they are they are really trying to get that playoff race. Uh, the schedule is favorable, that's for sure. Chris, thank you, appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon, sir, Yes, sir, yes sir, it's stay healthy. Yes,

thank you you too. Chris Andrew, south Point sports Book, Hotel Casino sports Book director kind enough to join us once again on Guessing Line. You can follow him at Andrew Sports, the name of his book then one day available where all books are so, including Amazon. Thank you for listening and joy stoop boom