Beating The Book: 2019 Week 11 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews

We'll resume our pressure ways though We'll try to anyway this week. Take it a stab at these lines with Chris Andrews guessing lines week eleven. Play along with us right here on the Beating the Book Podcast, Ladies and gentlemen. He is the South Point Hotel Casino sports book director, and of course he's my mission book. It's Chrissy Andrews. Good morning to you, Chris. So I have a couple of weeks. I good beat into forty yard dash. Okay, let's uh up here pretty quick. Don't get crazy, Chrizzy,

don't get great. How are you doing? How you feel? How are you feeling, buddy? I know you went through your thing this last week. I'm feeling great, man. You know, here's the beauty. Here's the beauty of the human body. It numbs you right like it protects you. Otherwise you'd be in severe pain. And so the body goes numb and then once the surgery happens, they put you on drugs. So all good with me. You know, didn't didn't affect my football watching, although I will say this past guessing lines.

I think up until last week guessing lines, I was sort of ahead of the market. It would come to me and everything seemed pretty good. I botched a bunch last week, and anyway, the results didn't follow. So last week was one of these shows that didn't work out. I'm sure you had a spectacular Sunday. We had a very very good Sunday, and me personally, I'm in a couple of contests did rather well. I'm looking back over my notes the games I gave out on guessing the lines.

He gave about the Bills, which was either a push or or a loser, probably a push for most guys. At Batam, they left the Giants winner, Falcons winner, Bengals what we lost a close one there? Um the Steelers, I like, you know, so pretty good, pretty good, pretty and then the sports book you know, we did pretty good. We had a good day. We had a good day at that. I'm sure you did. Uh, let's do it for those who were just landing a JEPS wrong. Saturday

was not very good. Really, it was not very good. Friend, No, it was like that. I don't know about anybody else, you know, idn't I didn't check compatriots in the business, but I know Saturday, and it wasn't terrible. We wounded up a little slightly on the plus, but very slightly. Yeah, it was not a particularly good day. Well, look, as you always say, no one's gonna cry for you, and you got it all back on Sunday before. I'm sure. All right, let's do this for those who are just

landing on the show for the first time. Guessing lines is a tribute to the old Stardust show, which is Uh. I have been in cocoon since last night. I immediately win the games are are ending, I grab into I do notes for games yesterday. I don't see the lines.

I take a guess at them. Uh. And within this exercise and Chrissie tells us what he's going to post here at the south point right when we get off the air at a couple of hours, and in that exercise we hope to find value at least the first salvo, first approach at handicapping next week's lines in the National Football League. More often than not, this is a very

valuable exercise. And more often than not, again last week excepted, this has really been if we trusted our first instincts here probably the best way about going uh towards beating the National Football League. Let's start with Thursday, and of course when we do, these will look back on yesterday's games as well. What is Thursday night? This week? Two good prime time games this past week, and we got a third good one tonight. Yeah, we've got a good one coming up Thursday, at least for for a lot

of people, myself included Pittsburgh at Cleveland. You were right about Pittsburgh. You're right about that. Yesterday Pittsburgh's five and four. Pittsburgh has the same record as teams like the Elis Cowboys, the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh, who else is in that mix?

The Rams teams that we had had other perceptions of, Let's put it that way prior to the season, and the Steelers have gone from one in four to five and four before even get into this against the Browns, has this been Mike Tomlin's best moment as a coach in your opinion or a lifelong Steelers fan, and has this changed your perception of Mike Tomlin. Well, I personally was always a Tomlin supporter, so I think he was on the ropes a little bit last year. He came

down the last couple of weeks. I felt he had to either beat New Orleans or New England to keep his job, and he beat New Orleans. They did not make the playoffs, but they made a pretty good run at it. I think again, when you look at Mike Tomlin and what he got out of Antonio Brown, for you know, eight of his nine years as a Steeler is just remarkable. Also got a lot out of Lady On Bell, who you know, it's, you know, tremendous talented.

I'm not sure he's very happy in New York. Might be, I don't know, but he've got a lot out of those two guys, you know, and neither one of them more high draft choices. Uh. Bell was the second round choice in Brown, I think it was a sixth round choice. And then this year, you know, Gil, You're right, I do sing the praises of the Steelers a lot. I am a fan, but look back at their losses. Okay, they've got blown out by New England. I think that

really the story of the perception. Since then, their losses are to Seattle, San Francisco, in Baltimore. You know, you know, all four of those losses are the top teams in the NFL. Their defense is playing great, offense not so good, you know, but they're winning some ballgames. And I think Mike Comlin at this point in time, you know, would conceivably be Coach of the year. I think he's done a terrific job. There's absolutely absolutely a case to be

made for that. And I just for for those of us who just thought he was, you know, a good speech giver, you know, this has this is really shown a lot. I think about Mike Tomlin here now their decision, the Steeler's decision to send a one round pick to the Dolphins mid September in exchange for Minka Fitzpatrick, hours after they lost Big Bed to his season ending injury. We were here sort of saying, okay, great, now you

lost Ben Roethlesburger and now you're mortgaging the future. Well, this has turned out to be a phenomenal trade for the Steelers. And again yesterday Fitzpatrick returns a fumble and I put fumble in quotes. We'll get back to that in a minute. Forty three yards were a touchdown the second quarter, had a pick at the end of the game in the final seconds. He's had six takeaways now, five picks, one fumble recovery in seven games with the Steelers.

Just absolutely ridiculous. Minca. Fitzpatrick has been just a boon for the Steelers. He's got to love the move that he's made from Miami. He wanted out, they gave him his wish. Now, I will say this, this is what drives NFL fans and particularly NFL better. Is crazy. I don't know that that's a fun Parlay and I were talking about this before the show. He thought that was a fumble. There was nothing about that motion to me. Up.

Everything I've been led to believe is the rule. I think that's an incomplete pass, but it was called a fumble. Um second quarter, it's third and keep in mind the situation. Second quarter, the Rams have third and seven at their own forty one. You're inside the two minute one. It is one six left, the game is seven and seven, The game is very much in the balance at that point. That is the entire you know, it's a game changing play right there. I'm not sure that's a fumble. I'm

not sure how you saw it. I think it could have gone either way. But I was looking at Twitter yesterday when it happened, and the guy made a great point. If that's Brady, that's exactly, That's exactly, and you can't talk me off that. Yeah, I don't dispute that. I don't dispute that. One more thing though, about the makeup. That's Patrick trade. I said this at the time, not thought that was so much for it or against it.

But I understand the Steeler's philosophy at that time. Their their goal every single year is to put a contender on the field, and they don't tank. They're not playing for next year. And everybody told him they should do that. Hold onto that draft kick. They were going to be, you know, right there with the Dolphins is the worst

team in the NFL. And Steeler management certainly didn't think someone didn't react that way, you know, and that that's their message to the to the locker room to the coaching staff, to the fans, ownership, everybody know, we're gonna go out there, you know, where things look bad. We're gonna try to get back in this race. And obviously they have right now. And I mean there's a lot of football left to play, but right now I think they are the leader for the number two uh the

card spots. Yeah, but I mean, like I said long way ago, but I'll tell what. You look at their schedule and you know, we're gonna get to this game in a minute, and I'll just you know, took here a little bit. They're gonna a slight dog this week. Then they played the Ravens last week of the season, but all the rest of the games, I think they'll be favored and all the rest of their games, so they have a good shot of getting into the playoffs. And then once you get in the playoffs, so see,

you gotta get lucky. I mean, you know, there's New England, a better team, absolutely, but best team doesn't always win. If you get to the playoffs, this version of Pittsburgh Steelers, you've got to be thrilled with that. Mason rud obviously, by the way, so the Steelers do end up winning the game, of course, seventeen to twelve. They do so as four four and a half point dogs, depending on

where it closed at your shop. Mason Rudolph yesterday two thirty eight for two forty two, one touchdown, no pick, sack three times. James Washington six catches ninety yards with a touchdown. Steelers did have a lot of penalties though, right thirteen penalties for a hundred seven yards. They only mustard on offense two hundred and seventy three total yards, but it was without James Conner and Betty Snell Junior in the backfield. But the defense, It's all about the defense.

They already had twenty six takeaways this season after managing just dean all of last year. Steelers get the win. It's at Cleveland Division rivals. Cleveland gets their first win at home yesterday. Uh they how can I put? This is the word outlast the Buffalo Bills N sixteen Um Baker Mayfield seven Yeah, I guess so, I don't really know what else to use their Baker Mayfield seven yard passed through the long lost Rochard Higgins with one forty

four left Cleveland snapping a four game losing street. Uh. Streak. Rather Buffalo game tying field goal try with twenty two seconds left, uh did not clear the upright Stephen Housh goes off the mark on a fifty three yard er um earlier, how she missed the thirty four yarder. Mayfield thirty eight to thirty eight, two touchdowns, no picks, two sacks or twice sacked. Nick Chubb, even with the appearance of Kareem Hunt twenty carries a hundred sixty yards, seven

catches for forty four. Kareem Hunt did make his debut seventy four combined yards in the game. Jarvis Landry nine catches ninety seven a touchdown the Browns, though here it is even in victory over the Bills. And we'll get to the Bills and Josh Allen, who still does everything with his feet, not with his arm, but they do benefit from the house could misses. The Browns scored just three points despite twelve plays inside Buffalo's three yard line.

Say that again, three points despite twelve plays inside Buffalo's three yard line. The Bills in fact stopped the Browns on eight straight plays at the one, the equivalent of two goal line stands in the first quarter alone. Your victorious Cleveland Browns, who get off the schneid, as Chris Burner used to say, with the win. I mean, all that said, it's a division game, it's Pittsburgh at Cleveland.

This to me has to be Cleveland minus three. Right. Well, there were threes around last night when I took a first going. And I don't like looking at the numbers before this morning either too, by the way, but I couldn't help but looking at this one, there was a lot of threes around. They're pretty much gone. It's bounded two and a half and that, and I'm gonna open it two and a half because I still see three with some juice on the dog, mostly two and a halfs a few with two and a half juice on

the favorite. But I'm gonna open two and a half. And uh, you know what you said there is really was kind of read my mind here. Uh. If you look at this the raw numbers, Cleveland should have won. They did much more easily did. But I mean that's the thing, you know, the Steelers were talked about their defense. Defense gave up three points yesterday. The offense gave up nine. Uh, and I don't think I'm not sure if Cleveland plays the same way, you know, let me, I don't know

how to phrase that. If they don't execute when they're supposed to this like they did yesterday against Buffalo, they're not gonna get away with it against the Steelers. And they barely got away with it yesterday. You know, heat plays in a row, you know, inside the five or where they were a yeah, I mean they came away with nothing. I mean, you know, I mean you look at the raw numbers again, Baker Mayfield played well, Nick Job was fantastic. How did they only win by three points?

And uh, you know again, we we keep talking about Freddy Kitchen as a coach, and there's problems in that organization. And you know, they lose a lot of games they're supposed to win, and Steelers probably have won a few games that they're supposed to lose. And uh, I'm gonna open to and a half. But I gotta tell you, if I see this trending lower, I'm going lowers. I really I do like Pittsburgh in this game. Personally, I thought this game should be close with will pick them?

Oh I had three was the only thing that popped in my head here for all the reasons stated like, what if Pittsburgh's winning games, they probably shouldn't Cleveland, you know, barely winning games, they should blood. It's just a tough, tough matchup to uh per day. That's a good Thursday night game for sure, Cleveland, now three and six? Should we do one more here before the break? Let's do one more here on a Sunday morning. Uh, this is a tough one. You got Dallas in Detroit and there's

no numbers now right. You know, we had to take this game off the car and unforced them because of Matthew Stafford, which is back and you get broken bones in his back and I can't believe the doctor wouldn't sign off on him playing football. But did we have Did we have any indication of this the entire week until the very late? Yeah? None? They keep amazing. I had wife bet me on Detroit. You know, we're at the end, you know. Uh, and then this came on.

I you know, I knew he was, you know, And I asked some guys that when when the first announced that he was questionable or doubts or whatever, was a while his hips been hurting him, you know, So I mean we didn't even know about the back. So, um, you know, I don't know, but like I said, this was a big surprise. So right now, that's the next game on the dock at no numbers whatsoever. And you can see why. Where's my notes here on that game.

Jeff driscoll I bought exactly a stellar Cal's quarterback. But he wasn't terrible, Yester, He's almost pretty decent. But I mean, Stafford really has had a terrific year. I mean, if you look at that Detroit team, I mean he has really carried that team this year. And you know, a huge difference from Stafford to driscoll. But like I said, Drisco played okay, but you know, that's just not a good team like Matthew Stafford. Yeah, yesterday Detroit losing to Chicago.

Chicago just does get the cover. They were six and a half point favorites in that game, as we're alluding to. Though Jeff Driscal forty six for two sixty nine, one touchdown, one pick, He was sacked twice, did have five carries for thirty seven yards. Detroit loses for the fifth time in six games. Such a Detroit Lions kind of season three five and one, and they ruled out the thirty one year old Stafford right before kickoff hip and back injuries.

He had started UH one hundred thirty six consecutive games, first time he's missed a regular season games since. And the word is quote day by day, week by week. That's going to be the assessment of Stafford moving forward. So who knows when we'll get a number on this.

Chicago nearly gave away four teen wing lead driscll with the late orchestration of the of the late drives forty seven yard touchdown past to Kenny Golladay's K five fifty three remaining, and then Detroit from its ten got all the way to Chicago's twenty five on the game's final drive, but with the ball on the twenty five, Driskill overthrows

Marvin's Joon Marvin Jones Jr. In the end zone. Time expires on a play that by the way, never would have counted because it was a legal forward pass and penalty anyway, And Dallas, as we all saw last night, they lose to Minnesota to twenty four, do so on their home field is three and a half point favorites.

Uh Dak Prescott forty six for three ninety seven three touchdowns of pick He was sacked only once at Mariy Cooper filling at the box score eleven catches a hundred forty seven yards of touchdown Randall cops six for one or six in a touchdown, but Zeke on the ground twenty carries for just forty seven yards. Uh. They were nine of fifteen on third downs. They had four forty three total yards of offense. A lot of people complaining about the sequence at the end that um, Jason Garrett

and company didn't get it right. That on the final drive Dallas from their own six yard line, not the final drive because the final drive was the Hail Mary, but the one before that, Dallas down four points, matriculated all the way from their own six with passes. Uh, deep pass This is twenty yards at a time, pretty

much eighteen twenty that sort of length passed. They get all the way down field and then it ends up being uh, you know second and two or yes, I think it was third and two deep in Minnesota territory, and instead of still going to the past, they went with Zeke. I didn't have a problem that they had a couple of running plays to Zeke. Second and to third and two, and then they threw a strange past to Zeke. I didn't really have a problem with that. I know it didn't work for Dallas, but that's the

guy you're paying. I thought that was a lot of results oriented analysis after that. Not sure how you felt about that. Yeah, I know I would disagree with you because I think if you look at bit coaching on Minnesota and they mentioned that during the game, it's like they were determined Zeke Elliott was not going to beat them, so that and they stuck with that philosophy all the way through the game. And you know, Dak Prescott I thought really played well. I mean I'm looking at his

q bas seven point five. You know, he was really good. I thought the whole game against a pretty good defense. Um, but then they switched up again. So I wouldn't disagree with you on that one. Gil. I think that they should have kept throwing the ball and Zeke, h, we're not gonna let Zeki Elliott beat them, and they didn't, and uh, you know, I think, uh, you know, again, a lot of a lot of fault those to Jason Garrett and Moore, who's their play caller. You know, I

don't know. Maybe maybe the drugs want me to defend Jason Garrett Chris. I can blame it everything on the drugs. I've done that before too, you know, for a while. But but if it's drift call, Dallas is going to be favored by more than a field goal, to say the least. That's that's yeah, alright, no numbers at all, though, I don't see any numbers whatsoever. All right, Yeah, he's Stafford is just too important. We'll come back, We'll guess

some more. Week eleven line. So hard to believe. We're a week eleven already in the NFL, and of course, in the process will review what went on yesterday. It's all brought to you by the bet mgm app. Here on a numbers game where you can get in on the action by downloading the new bet mgm app, where first time players can make their first bet completely risk

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wager risk free. You can sign a betywhere, but you gotta be in the state of New Jersey to place a bet bet MGM. It's how you play the game. Download the app today. Gotta be twenty one year older. New Jersey only restrictions apply. Coming back guessing lines week eleven in the National Football League right here on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with you, Alexander. Back on a numbers game here guessing lines. We can levin right here to be in the Vegas

Stats and information that we're serious. Sex of Channel two or four. Parlay laughing at me? Why are you laughing at me? Parley, I'm not I'm not gonna say anything. I'm not throwing you under the bus. You're already on a scooter as it is. That's right, I'm on a scooter. Give a man on a scooter or break Chris. Let's bring Chris Andrews here for a second. Uh. The South Point Hotel Casino Sports book director, of course, is uh hanging with us as he always does, guessing lines. He is,

for goodness sake, the show here. You can follow him on Twitter at Andrew sports h question from my buddy e here Chrissie, who you know as well, asked Chris how badly he was sweating a Dallas field goal win with Dallas driving to go ahead down four? Would that have negated your whole day with them dancing between three and three and a half. Uh, it would have negated probably about a third to the day that they're not the whole day made you a little more than a third.

That was huge. We were most certainly holding our breath here on that on those last couple of drives, for sure. Yeah. Interesting. By the way, our other buddy, Chris Felika the Bear, he reminded me that I think you were on this text too, that the Steelers got screwed against the Ravens on our pass interfaces, not about that they could easily be six and three right now, you imagine. Yeah, No, I mean, oh, we'll get to we'll get to roughing the passer penalties on this show too, because we got

some tweets about it. I want to get to it too. Let's do some more on Sunday morning, Week eleven, This coming Sunday. Okay, New Orleans at Tampa. All right, So what was that yesterday? No? No, but that was very good for us. I can tell you whatever it was, it was a thing of beauty. I could tell you that Atlanta, who everybody just wanted to just scrap on, come out and dominate the New Orleans Saints, who were fourteen point favorites. They beat the Saint twenties six to

nine yesterday. We'll get to Atlanta. But as far as New Orleans, um, boy, I mean, how so many ways to look at this. First of all, the Falcons ended their six games slide with the With that win, the Saints had not been held without a touchdown at home with Breeze running the offense since two thousand six, his first year in New Orleans. But it was the second time this season, if you were called, the Saints had

not found the end zone at home. Remember that twelve to ten win over Dallas with Teddy Bridgewater filling in for Brides. So Breeze, when you look at the box score, thirty two of forty five seven yards, no touchdowns, no picture, like, Okay, what's the problem? Six sacks? He was sacked six times. Now keep in mind what an anomaly this was, or just or how I shouldn't say anomally, how this came out of nowhere. Up until this game yesterday, the Falcons

had a grand total of seven sacks. That's an NFL low. They came in with seven sacks, They had six yesterday alone. It happened against the Saints offensive line that had allowed twelve sacks through their first eight games. They give up six yesterday. Again, you look at the box, who are Michael Thomas Thirteen catches a fifty two yards but only three yards of offense for these Saints. And here's the

real thing, only fifty two yards rushing. The other thing that really bit the Saints, and the Saints were coming off an extra week. Here twelve penalties for ninety yards. They had four, Chris, do you ever remember a game where a team had four hands to the face penalties? That was pretty remarkable. So they're twelve, yeah, yeah, four in one game. Uh and by the way, the refs caught every single one of them. Um, they're at Tampa,

you said, Tampa bayands a four game losing streak. Jamis Winston thirty eight one touchdown, two picks, act four times, three carries forty yards. It's your typical Jamis box score. In Tampa Bay's thirty to twenty seven win, excuse me over Arizona, they do not cover the four and a half or or five point closing spread, but Tampa gets the win. Uh drove ninety two yards did the Bucks for the winning touchdown after Jamal Dean cornerback who had

played terribly the previous week against Seattle. You remember in that UM forty thirty four overtime game, he was getting beat left and right, but he ends Kyler Murray's NFL rookie record streak of two hundred eleven consecutive pass attempts without a pick. Um denies the Cardinals an opportunity to add to their twenty seven to twenty three lead. Mike Evans four catches eighty two yards. Ronald Jones Junior filling up the box score eleven carries for twenty nine yards

and touchdown eight catches for seventy seven. Bucks penalized severely as well, though nine for nine. It's kind of just the norm now in the NFL. Winston's interceptions. By the way, even with a victory yesterday gives him thirteen turnovers in the past four games. He's still Jamison. So all that New Orleans at Tampa Bay. New Orleans will get dinged obviously for that loss yesterday, but there's still New Orleans and they're still Tampa. So I'll say New Orleans by

what's my number here? I said New Orleans by four. You're slightly low. It's uh. I see one four and a half, but mostly five, even even a straight five and a half here and there. I think five's okay. I really thought this might come a little higher. Uh, I expect the Saints to rebound. You know you said it wasn't an anomally I would beg the difference. The sad thing was a total one normally. I mean, how the the Falcons got in drew breaths face like that yesterday.

I was shocked. I mean, now, anybody listens, if you listen to the show last week, I opened this game twelve and a half, and I told you even then I like the Falcons in the game. I just thought it was too high because they as bad as they've been, it seemed like they're close, and uh, you know, yesterday they really kind of put it all together. But I like the plus tall in half. You know, I went all the way to fourteen on this game, and uh, the were at the fourteen. I had like one guy

that me two dimes plus the fourteen. That was it. I mean, we had nothing on that Land. This is a huge game for tons of moneyline action on New Orleans. But I think I think New Orleans bouncing back here, So I'm gonna open open five. It just gives me a lot of flexibility. I can go to four or six off the bed because five still a pretty dead number in this league. Uh, but I thought this would come higher. I somewhat like New Orleans in this spot.

It was. It was so interesting because that for this game, I couldn't wait to see what was it? What was it Land on third downs? Because New Orleans could not get them off the field. At least That's how it seemed when watching the game. And then I'm like, oh, six of fifteen, Uh do we lose Cristy right there? Six of fifteen. I was like, Oh, it's not that it wasn't as dramatic as I thought it was, But six and fifteen nonetheless, but six sacks of Drew Brees that,

as I mentioned, the key stad there. Falcons came in with an NFL low seven sacks. They get six alone in that game, and a Saints offensive line that had allowed to just twelve sacks through their first eight games. Drew Brees six half of their entire sex to that point of the season in that game yesterday. So just a complete outlier in that one. We have Chrissy back. Let's go to the next game. So I said, I said four, and you're and you're going with five here,

I'm gonna go with five. Like I said, I sort of like New Orleans in this spot. I just think, you know, and they have to rebound off of that game, because I do think they are really I don't know about the cream of the crop in the NFC, but they're certainly right up there, and I think they will rebound after that. And Tampa was a little lucky winning that game this year. They weren't clearly the better team certainly. Yeah. Anyway, next game up, we have those same Atlanta Falcons at Carolina. Okay,

NFC South game Falcons that we just talked about. Matt Ryan two touchdowns, a pick sacked once returning from an ankle injury. As I said, six of fifteen on third downs, one of one on fourth. But Atlanta's defensive dominance. Here's what they changed, dan Quinn reassigned Raheem Morris from receivers back to the secondary. So Raheem Morris gets to take a bow because that that was the one significant change they made before that game, and that made a whole

bunch of difference. Carolina yesterday, uh they lose to the green Bay Packers by the by the score of twenty four to sixteen. Green Bay covers is five five and a half point favorites. In that game. Preston Smith, green Bay's defense stopped Christian McCaffrey at the goal line as time expires. Packers win a twenty to sixteen snowy lambeau Field Panthers got the ball with two twenty five left

on their own eleven yard line, trailing by eight. Kyle Allen matriculated the ball down the field twelve yard pass the DJ more and fourth and ten with fifty six seconds left. That extended the drive. They also benefited from an off side's penalty with thirteen seconds remaining. To convert

an other fourth down. McCaffrey had found the end zone on three yard run to cut the lead of sixteen fifty eight left, and then Panthers coach Ron Rivera elected to go for two instead of attempting the extra point. That failed, So they were in a position where they were down eight. Even had they had scored there at the end, they would have still had to convert a two point conversion. Now I got some I got a tweet or two about that where folks were like, how

do you feel about that? And my answer about them going for to down eight, My answer to that is incomplete, I said, one as as Ron Rivera says, it's completely the analytical way to go. Now, so this first, let's just say this, the notion that he's riverboat Ron is now the most inaccurately dubbed nickname there is, because he's by the book. Ron. In doing that, he's going strictly by the book. I can't answer the question because I don't know how in depth Carolina's analysis is of this.

Are they just, you know, on the one hand, are they just given a book like, oh, analytics say to do this, let's follow it sacredly or On the other hand, do they get to other and do they say to themselves, well, uh, this is the reason why we're supposed to go for it, and based on our personnel and the opposing team's personnel, let's just not do do this. You know, blindly, it still makes sense for us to do things this way. And here are the numbers with two point conversion, expected

points with two point conversions, and with extra points. So I don't know how in depth they get to it. I don't have a problem with it on the surface. Um, a good game for Kyle Allen three or seven, one touchdown, one pick, three, sack three times. McCaffrey twenty carries a hundred eight yards to touchdown, six catches for thirty three. But they did allow Aaron Jones three touchdowns on the ground. We'll get to the most egregious play of this game,

but I'll say Carolina minus six at home against Atlanta. Uh, you know you're pretty much right on. It's anywhere from five and a half to six and a half, say six the predominant number at this point. I'm gonna open this game five and a half. Um, it's kind of been a I hate to say an Atlanta believer. But I just really have been waiting for this team to finally wake up. It just seemed like they had a lot of pieces in place. But um, what do we

say last week? I can't remember who we were talking about. But some of the parts is not equal the whole, you know. And I still think they've got a shot to get this thing. I mean, I'm not saying they're gonna make a playoff run or anything like that, but I just don't think they're all that bad. And by the way, I was looking at Carolina, are we sure Christian McCaffrey didn't get into the in zone on that

last play? I'm not so sure about that. For me, I'm looking at my point, they really did shut down Christian McCaffrey. Oh, we only had what do you have there, like a hundred and some yards on their you know, they really shut them a hundred eight yards on the ground. Uh, But that's one of his worst games of the year. But I think the defense played very well for Green Bay. Uh.

You know, Carolina is good. I don't think they're great, And I think I'm gonna go to five and a half here, and you know, if they want to bet me up to six and it gets okay. I get said. I don't think they're a great team. I think Atlanta has the potential to make a run, no, but show a lot of improvement over the last half of the season. I think they do have that potential. A few things here, just to clarify, I think I said the the whole is worse than the sum of its parts. I said

that about the Cleveland Browns. I believe last week uh too, And I can't even remember what too was. So we'll get to three, which was to me still what I will remember about this game, and this is what again, We've only gotten through a few games here, and it's the second time I'm saying this. This is what drives people crazy about the NFL now, and particularly people who are betting on the NFL UM one. It's not even about Ron Rivera's decision. It's about what happened at the

end of the first half. It's third and thirteen at their own seven yard line for the Green Bay Packers with four twenty one left. They're up fourteen to ten um Aaron Rodgers drops back to pass. It looks like the play is blown up and they're gonna have to punt the ball. Caroline is gonna get the ball in good field position at the very least you can assume

a field goal attempt, probably on that final drive. But nope, Gerald McCoy, who looked to go out of his way not to land on Aaron Rodgers, gets flagged for a roughing the passer penalty and it gives the Packers new life. The Packers matriculate all the way down the field. Excuse me.

For the remainder of the first half, they make it absolutely what I believe to be a just ridiculous decision to try to punch the ball in for a touchdown first and goal at the two, first and goal at the one with with two seconds left and a half, instead of just kicking a field goal going up seven getting the ball back at the beginning of the second half, Like why field goals aren't cool enough now for certain teams, Like it says the analytics thing has gone crazy with people,

like the pendulum has swung too much. Just kick a field goal, get some points there. Uh they By the way, they didn't end up scoring your touchdown the first of the second half. But back to the McCoy thing, By the way, the poetic justice is that McCoy was the one who shot through the line and stopped that play the final play of the first half, so the Packers ended up with nothing but that play. I mean, it cannot be emphasized enough. That call changes perhaps the entire

outcome of that football game. And it's so clearly he got flagged for playing football. Chris, I've said it before, like it drives me nuts and I don't want to be that guy who comes on here every week, but the NFL is so saturated with this on a week to week basis that it makes you know, as I said it last year, for the first time, it's one thing to watch it. I'm betting on this when I don't even know when I'm betting on anymore. Well, two

things I want to say about that. First of all, I think it's like a twist saying or something like that says in the more laws there are, the more laws will be broken, and that you applies to the NFL. The more rules they are, the more rules will be broken.

The other thing, you know, the analytics on that on that final play when you're down at the gold mine, they're part of the analytics is if you miss it, you help your you have them at the one yard line, well, the half's gonna end, so you don't have them at anything, you know, go kick the fielding to go up. I mean that's the thing. Yeah, I mean if it's the middle of the third quarter, yeah, you go for it. Sure, because like I said, if you missed, yeah, you hold

them in a bad position. But this the half was gonna end in seconds. Just not a well thought out decision by green Bay. But yeah, you're right. The penalty before that really easily, easily could have changed the entire game. So I said, carolinea minus six, and you said it's right around there, uh anywhere five and a half, the six and a half. Six really is the number. But I'm gonna open five and a half. I do see

five and a halfs a round. I think I've got like five and a half a little bit better here. All right, we'll take a break. We'll do more Week eleven guessing lines. These lines so far with these matchups pretty uh pretty mechanical so far, for lack of a better term, nothing too out rages yet. We'll come back. We'll do more with Chris Andrews right here on a numbers game at Feaston Welcome back to a numbers game with you, Alexander. We had tweets set beating the book.

Always appreciate the feedback. Matt Terse at Warrior zero one three. I'm convinced that no one knows what will happen in the NFL week to week. Sure we might all hit on this lock quote unquote that we had, but general we're all clueless throwing a point spread. Good lord, Um New York Mess sixteen. I'm glad Chrissy said that if it's Brady, it's not a fumble. Talking about the Jared golf fumble. I agree. Look at Green Bay where Rogers got rough and called but Alan had head twisted and

refs missed quote unquote the face mask call. Almost likes our pitchers getting the corners. Um, Paul Tony my favorite show guessing lines. Thank you, James Lange. When Chris talks Steelers philosophy, I can't help but think he's talking about the exact opposite philosophy of the Skins and Lions. Nodding my head silently, yes. Brian Wright, Uh, Game plus two thirty eight. I'm optimal cable this morning, not on it. Says it's on channel in, but they're showing some video game.

We've got a couple of game pluses on Twitter. They're having tech issues this morning, Jeffrey. That's why they're not people are people want their guessing lines. Man, So everybody who checks this out on Channel to thirty eight, they're don't worry. It's just a thing. Hopefully they get that corrected. And Dr Peter Bregman glad all went well with your surgery again. Cannot recommend the injection of eggs zones highly enough. Look it up stem cells. All right, look it up, Chrissie.

Let's get some more lines. What do you got what's next week eleven? I was recommending the injection of morphine, which is what they gave me. Pretty good. Okay, Yeah, is uh this a quirky game there. We've got Jacksonville at Indianapolis. Um uh, Foles will be the starter for Jacksonville. And I think we're not positive who the starter is going to be for Indianapolis at this point, but you know,

this is a kind of a funny game. Right now, I'm gonna guess it's Jacoby Brissette because I think he was close to plan yesterday and Brian Hoyer, Yeah, didn't exactly light the world up on fire. Indianapolis is lost to the Dolphins. They lose outright sixteen to twelve, as ten and a half or eleven point favorites, depending on where you saw the clothes. Hoyer eighteen of thirty nine, two oh four, one touchdown, three picks sacked once, only

three hundred total yards for the Jaguars yesterday. Uh, Dolphins converted three Colts turnovers into thirteen points and that was it red zone stop. In the final minute of the game, Hoyer took three chances at the end zone. All were in complete. Fourth was an eight yard completion to Eric Ebron on fourth and ten. That does not work out

with the math. By the way, Adam vinit terry six extra point miss of the season, and that caused the Colts to need a touchdown when they reached the Miami sixteen yard line with less than a minute to play instead of a tying field goal. Uh, this is three. I'm not gonna be labor. This has to be Indie minus three Jacksonville coming off the extra rest. Yes, Uh, two and a half. U two and a half is a low mark. Two and a half with some juice I see on the favorite three with juice on the

dog man. It's a tough one. I think I'm gonna open three. You know, we do everything in eleven and ten here at the south Point. Uh So probably either way I open it, they're gonna bet me that way. I think Brissette. I can't believe this number hardly moved with Brissette out of the lineup. I mean when it first came out, I lowered it to the low man on the totem pole as far as you know the pointspread, and they laid it to me pretty good. And uh, I'm going to Jawyer. What was his Q? Four point four?

So he takes the prize for the low lobe mark of the week. And he was that bad? He really was. I think with Jacobe present in the game, I mean, they win this game, so I'm gonna open. I guess I'm gonna open three. I think it's a tough one, though, um, I'm not sure where they're going to take in this. This is gonna be an interesting game to follows is the week because I'm not sure what to take of

either quarterback at this point in time. But this is gonna be interesting, and I think we'll do a lot of action on this game because people are gonna have opinions. People are gonna have opinions. It is interesting. It's the year of the non move on quarterback changes, non move in the betting market. The most glaring example was when wish Neev and I were sitting here in the morning that Brian Flores said, no, we're going with Ryan Fitzpatrick, not Josh Rosen, and that thing didn't budge and we

couldn't believe it. We couldn't believe it. Um. By the way, the Dolphins the only thing I get consistently right from week to week. What's the next game here, Let's sneak in one more Denver at Minnesota. Well after yesterday, Denver is gonna be on extra rest here too, right there? Come off a bye after last night in Minnesota's I mean, can I say Kirk cousins signature moment. I believe that

Joe Buck said this. Kirk Cousin's signature moment as a member of the Vikings in terms of yeah, in terms of beating a good team on the road, Cousins was twenty three or thirty two for two twenty two touchdowns. Note picks was that just once? Dalvin cook Man twenty nine seven to touchdown seven catches for eighty six. The Vikings were eight of fourteen on third downs. They were one for one on four. I'll say this is Minnesota minus ten because this will be Brandon Allen and the

Denver Broncos. Yeah. Ten, I see a little bit even higher than that, but I think tens a good number, kind of a low total, so we're expecting, uh, kind of a defensive game. But I think ten's okay here, and uh, Kirk Cousins really I thought played his best name of the season, for sure. But Dalvin cook was fantastic, he really was. And the Denver the Minnesota defense was terrific as well. Even though they they led the Dak

Prescott have a pretty good game. But there they went in and I mentioned it before, they decided they were knocking to let Ezekiel Elliott beat them, and they didn't. Um. I don't think Denver has anywhere near those kind of weapons. The only the only fear I have in Minnesota. It looks so good in prime time. Uh, this number might get a little over inflated. I don't see it going in nine and a half, but I you see it maybe going to ten and a half with a public

on it. If it gets up too high, you might want to take Denver. Uh in a game that figures to be very, very low scoring total I'm looking at right now is like thirty eight and a half, so you know, points may be worth taking this number does go up, which I think it will. Yeah, Minnesota, but its tendon again. I returned to normalcy on the show today. Uh no, outlandish guess is no way off so far. Anyway,

We've got another hour to do. We'll see if some appear, but so far pretty much in pocket with these guests. We'll come back. We'll do more and a word on l s U Bama and the Heisman Trophy coming up on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander. So you would think my first thoughts Friday morning, because I knew I had to go under the knife that day for the Achilles surgery, you would think my first thought was, oh, man, I

gotta have surgery today. Nope, first text I got that morning when I woke up was from Felika. Uh quote, Well, there goes the Chase Young Heisman campaign. And so as soon as I read that, I'm like, oh no, could this day get worse? Uh So Chase Young immediately suspended. Um, that was the first thing. And then on Saturday, of course L s U Abama. What a football game. Everything we could have hoped for from an L. S U Alabama game, and Joe Burrow won the Heisman Trophy that day. Period.

What are the what are the updated odds here at the south point Jeff Joe Burrow minus a thousand now Jalen Hurts second favorite of twelve to one fields at fifteen and one two at twenty one. It's gonna take something really crazy for Joe Burrow not to win this thing. And if you go to like Draft Kings, you'll see people like Chase fifty to one to be on it. That that's it. It's it's Burrows to lose, and I don't know how he loses it at this point. Um,

So that's the deal. Chris. Do you expect like zero money to come in on this anymore? Yeah? God, we get murdered on Joe Burrow, we do. I really, I was, well, we had a lot of money line play on L s U on Saturday. You know, the point spread was actually you know, pretty well bent on both sides, but a lot of money line on L. S U. And I do agree with you. Joe Burrow, I think won the Heisman on Saturday, so we really kind of want to damn it a win to take away some of

that steam on Burrow. But we beat up pretty good with him winning the Heisman. I think it's you know, I'm not quite a foregone conclusion, but pretty darn and close at this point. Could you define could you define beat up pretty good? Because what's that market like? Uh, it's pretty significant. I gotta tell you, m yeah, I mean it's uh, you know, I don't want to throw out numbers. Jimmy does that all the time, but I don't ask him. When he's on the show. He'll tell

you what it is. It's pretty bad for Jimmy. Christy forgot. Yes, now, Jimmy's he's just probably having his eight muffin mcnog trade now with his coffee. But when he, like a beam, throws out the numbers, that will throw them out quite so readily. So, by the way, you know, can we go back and uh, I'm gonna amend the number here, Carolina, I said I was gonna open five and a half. I'm gonna open that six, all right? Yeah, the tight end for Atlanta Hooper, who's uh I think has fifty

six receptions? The tight end leading type. Yeah, bleating tight Endrasira and uh I got the jump out. Well we'll finish that thought. Coming up, we'll get more lunch, we'll get the clarifies thought coming up on a numbers game at Feast Sport for Today show, as always comes from bookmaker dot EU, an industry leader for close to thirty years. Now, you know how the bookmaker motto goes. It's where the lines originate, because chances are your sports book follows their line.

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a numbers game with your host, kill Alexander. You want those units to believe in Adam limits our number two of guessing lines right here on a numbers game of Visa and the Vega Stats and Information Network series Sex and Jail to It for Visa dot Com, the Visa at Fubo Slaying game. Plus it's all brought to you by the bet mgm AP by the way, where first time players can make the first bet completely risk free

up to five hundred United States dollars. Same folks who brought you Borgota, Atlantic City's premier hotel and casino be with the all season long with a wide variety of betting options and easy deposit and withdrawal methods. Just download the app, use bonus code, VISA and five hundred. It's signed up to get your five hundred dollar risk free bet. Bonus code v s I N five hundred. It's place your first bet. MGM wags your risk free You could sign up anywhere, but you gotta be in the state

of New Jersey to place a bet. Bet MGM is how do you play the game? Download the app today, gotta be twenty one year older. New Jersey only restrictions apply. Gambling problem called one gambler. That's the bet MGM AP, VISA and five hundred. The code you need to use it is Gil Alexander. Jeff Parlay Producer number five is here as well. I'm hopped up on drugs, so that's fun. No telling what I'll say. Um well, the last thing about the l s U Alabama again on Saturday. L

s U forty six Alabama forty one. Bandel was favored by five points closing line of that game. Not only did Joe Burrow win the Heisman vote. I was watching two A Jeff just when I would just when I would get the thought man to it. I'm not sure. I'm not sure where I would draft this guy, like I was just down grading down as soon as I would have that thought. He'd throw a dime deep. Man, he throws a nice deep ball, but he's too hurt too often. He's too brittle at that age, um and

nothing is his fault. But that's just you got. You know what does Paul Sport saying baseball staying healthy as a skill, and I'm not sure to a has that, and uh good for good for l s U. Here's what will be interesting this week, And of course the second rankings come out tomorrow. Again, only the last one matters. But where will Obama go? We know where LSU's going. Where will Obama go? Will they drop below Oregon in Utah? Or will they be ranked ahead of Oregon in Utah?

Because if if you put them below Oregon in Utah, in what world are those two teams better than Bama? Just stop it, even understanding this is Obama team that doesn't have the big dogs on d offense like they used to in previous years. But come on, yes, Jeffrey, I think Batman is gonna be four. I think they only saw one spot. One spot? You think only one? Yeah, so you think Clemson is still gonna be fine. I

think I think Climes are gonna be three. Yeah, I think I think it's l Se Ohio State Clemson one to three. They're getting all those three teams are getting in, assuming they went out. Even Ohio State could suffer one loss and still probably get in. Clemson's not losing. I think Alabam it's either Alabama or Georgia. Number four. You can't just the Pactole teams are nowhere near as good as no, no way even close. Let's just stop with that.

It'll be interesting how it plays out tomorrow. Let's bring in Chris Andrews. I don't know if he has any thoughts on that, but I know you wanted to clarify the Carolina thing again. Carolina who you're putting up a six point favorites, uh in their game this coming week against the Who are they playing again? Who do we say they're playing? They're playing the Atlanta Falcons. So Carolina is gonna be six point? Yeah, I'm gonna go to six.

You know, Hooper and Freeman looked like they're Hoopers out. Freeman looks highly questionable. So two pretty big offensive weapons for Atlanta. So I'm gonna go to stay five minuving six so many I was, I was leaning towards five and a half, and I'm gonna go to six minutes. There's still five and halves around, by the way, but I like six little better. Back to your college football. You don't win the games on the field, you know, I'm sorry when the games on the field not to

come down to a vote. Firstballer should be eight teams and five conference champions and then vote in three teams. You know, I think it's ridiculous. You know, you don't even win your division in college football. But Ohio State in Alabama, theyn't get in. They don't have to win any It could be seven and five and someone like you're telling me they're not better than Oregon. I don't care. FeliCa.

FeliCa says Georgia four Georgia. I think he's right. Um as probably right, but geez, go win it on the field, for God's sake. Don't just have let you Condoleeza Rice vote in. She's come on, oh sure, pick on condoles. It crizzy for her, and about you know twenty others. You know, you don't win on the field, so that that was Again, it only doesn't matter to the edit, but for it matters betting for futures tickets that people have. But it's how I started it on on Wednesday of

last week. It's interesting from the perspective because you have the rational thought perspective, which you know I was talking about on Wednesday, which is the only problem I have is that they're inconsistent, right they vote one team four instead of five based on resume, which they did Penn State over Clemson. But at the top there Ohio State over LSU just because they're better at football, they say. So there's all kinds of inconsistencies, and I think that's

sort of a rational way to look at it. But then there's the conspiracy theorist right who or like, oh, they're just trying to get a pack twelve team in there, no matter what's It will be interesting to see how how this plays out. It's certainly fun to talk about. We got games to get to, though, Chrissy. Let's let's say continue with Week eleven in the NFL. What's next. There's a great one. The Jets at the Redskin. Yes,

clear my schedule. The Jets win yesterday they beat the Giants. Uh, they do so by the score of thirty one to twenty four. Congratulations Jeff Parlay and the Jets nation. Sam Donald after the game. By the way, they do so as three point closing dogs. Sam Donald after the game yesterday. Uh, if we win out, we can still make the playoffs. That is a quote, technically correct. Technically correct. The Jets are two and seven. It should be noted you're you're

not looking at the standings incorrectly. The Redskins are one and eight. The Redskins are coming off some arrest here. Sam Donald yesterday in victory, nineteen thirty one touchdowns, no pick uh, sack twice he ran for another score. Snapped the Jets three game losing streak. They were plus two and turnovers versus the Giants. Giants lost their sixth straight, by the way, but they gave up yards passing to

Daniel Jones, who had four touchdown passes. They did sack Daniel Jones six times, but Slayton scored twice on the Golden tate. Did they did hold the Giants? Here was the key stat of the game. They held the Giants to twenty three yards rushing, twenty of which came from Daniel Jones himself and say Kwan Barkley thirteen carries for one yard, and when you make a team one dimensional, it's a lot easier to play football. Third team carries

from one yard. Um, sure, Lombardi's gonna have a lot to say about that, including say Quan's ability to uh chip block. Uh. If I say the Redskins are favored, will you accuse me of being a homer? I still have the Redskins minus two and a half here. Well, that's interesting. I see this game from one all the way to two and a half, and let me just say, probably the outfit. I have the most respect for hashim a two and a half. I like it, you know, I would you know I have trouble going there part

looking at me like I'm crazy. I'm on fire, Jeff, I think I'm gonna stick like one and a half here. Oh my god. Meanwhile, let me say that because the Giants have a week off, so we're not gonna get to the Giants. I always thought Sam Donald like my knock against him, as he does not protect the ball, whether it's during interceptions or fumbling. Daniel Jones is worse. I mean, I never my God, protect the ball for God, say jeez oh man. So I mean, like I said,

Giants have the week off. Maybe they put some glue on his fingers or something in the next week so he'll learn something. But Jets, I thought they played pretty well. Um, like you know, the Giants certainly helped them out, but I think one and a half. So okay, you know it's still the Redskins. And I'll tell you what I could see already right now, what's gonna happen. There's gonna be so many six point teasers and the Jets taking them plus seven and then absolutely and I do not

blame them one bit. It's almost like you're handing them a win. That's the Yeah, seven and a half on this game would be ridiculous, like you have one end on your keys are in already. Jets are everybody's first teaser leg of the week, Yes, Jeff, Yeah, Because the total is only thirty anywhere from thirty. I see one thirty seven, the mostly thirty seven, a half thirty eight, So it's gonna be a low scoring game. It takes seven half in a game like that, again, especially against Washington.

This league is this league is filled with so many direct teams it's not even fun. And these are two. All right, we'll see another Buffalo at Miami. Al Right, we talked about both of these teams. Buffalo and defeat to the Browns Miami and victory against the Colts Buffalo. Josh Allen forty one to sixty six. Again, no touchdown, passes, one pick if he sacked once, but he does things with his feet. Six carries twenty eight yards, two touchdowns.

I always think about my friend Bob Stole, Dr Bob, who is a big college football guy, and one of the things that he's really good at his projecting quarterbacks from college into the pros. And one of the things he always says is, look, the only thing that is super reliable projection wise is completion percentage. Accuracy is one of those things that just can't be acquired that easily. And so there's been any number of drafts through the years where he has accurately said these guys like I

remember the Blaine Gabbert Christian Ponder draft. You remember that one. He was like, how Blaine Gabbert can be drafted by anyone? I have no idea based on accuracy? And in this one, you know, he has said this about Josh Allen the whole way through. He's like, look, this guy cannot He's got no accuracy whatsoever. And I really do think we have not written the final chapter on Josh Allen. I don't know how to feel about him. He loses yesterday. There's six and three are the bills, but I don't

think anybody's Garrett about six and three. Uh. And Miami here, which I said again is the only thing I've consistently gotten right from week to week is that I value Miami so differently than the market does. And week after week we are cashing against the number on the Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick yesterday one thirty three for one sixty nine,

no touchdowns, one pick, sack, three times. Miami wins it despite only gaining two twenty nine yards uh scoring on the ground by the fleet of foot nimble thirty six year old Fitzpatrick, who UH said he wasn't even sure he was gonna make it to the end zone, and then late in the game, booth officials told the refs

to send him to the sideline. At the start of Miami's final series, I don't know if you saw that after he had taken helmet to helmet hit on the previous series, so Josh Rosen was actually in there for a while. But I will say it in spirit of the in the spirit of the last three weeks. I'm gonna make a guess here, and I'm going to hope that I am uh low here, and then I can bet on the Dolphins again. I'm gonna say Buffalo minus

four and a half on the road. Well, I like your number quite bit, but there's a lot of sixes around. I see it mostly five and a half and six. I see one six and a half with juice on the dog. I'm with you. I'm gonna open this five. I see one outfit and I mentioned him. I don't want to mention their names, but an outfit that I really respect. They have it five, and I'm gonna open the game five. You know, I'm a few I think Miami,

you know, under Fitzpatrick is really you know not. I mean, I don't want to say they're good, but I mean they've covered like, what four in a row. I think something like that, maybe even more net uh but you know, they're not that bad Buffalo are They're gonna put up a bunch of points there, and I just don't see it, you know, Josh Allen, you know, I don't know. I mean,

I'm not crazy about him, certainly. I hate rooting against anybody in this league, like I said, any of these young quarterbacks, because I want to see the league do well. But I'm kind of a doctor Bob on this one. I you know, I just don't see it. I mean, I hope he gets better. I wouldn't count on it. Um, but I like I like five here. I don't know what at five they'll probably bet me again low total thirty nine, so you know points are gonna be at a premium here. Um, But I think i'd like Miami

in this game. And if he can get six, and there's a lot of six out there, I would take Miami plus to six. I think Miamie got a good that would be a good play. Yeah, I'll grab the six immediately. That's the first one I really like today. Let's do another or still still early games here. One more early game. Okay, interesting game. Houston at Baltimore. That's probably the best matchup we've had so far, right, Houston at Baltimore. Houston six and three, Baltimore seven and two

Baltimore yesterday Houston obviously coming off by here. Baltimore has has won five in a row now for the first time since yesterday. Lamar Jackson fifteen of seventeen for two d twenty three yards, three touchdowns, no picks, was never sacked, seven carries sixty five yards, a touchdown, and a one hundred and fifty eight point three passer rating perfection. It is his second perfect passer rating of this season. Only Ben Roethlisberger in two thousand seven has done that, had

two perfect ratings in a one season. So Lamar Jackson, meet Big Ben, You're the only two. He completed a forty nine yard pass on the very first play of the game and then the signature play of the game, perhaps the week, and perhaps the season in the National Football League, and will be if Lamar Jackson ever puts on a gold jacket many years from now, and I

know that's a big if, but if he does. This is on the highlight reel, a three hundred sixty degree spin yesterday on Nick Vigil and UH and his Bengal teammates that UH put them to the ground helplessly on a forty seven yard scamper from Lamar Jackson a thing of beauty. It's like hitting the maddened spin button at the perfect moment. There were also four of six on

third downs. Noteworthy, they only had six third downs one of one on fourth down uh r G three by the way, three or five or twenty yards, no touchdowns, one pick and so I could just need to contractually obligated to point that out. And Micca Fitzpatrick is the Steelers version of this. But Marcus Peters, who is just a risk taker, feaster famine kind of guy. He picked off Ryan Finley in this game, and the return at eighty nine yards to the house his third pick six

of this season. So Marcus Peters seven defensive touchdowns since entering the league, and that's the most in the NFL over that span. Not sure how analytics guys like him, but he certainly when it goes his way, goes very well his way in dramatic fashion. I'll say Baltimore minus four. This is a huge game with teams headed for the postseason. I'll say it's more than three. I'll say Baltimore minus four or you're right on, but I see four and four and a half. I'm gonna use a four and

a half. I gotta tell you, Lamar Jackson. You know I've bet against him yesterday. I just thought the number was a little too high. Uh, Mike, it didn't take me long to realize how long I was. Uh. You talked about his perfect passer rating. I looked at the qb R. Its QBR with ninety nine point eight, and I can never remember one QBR higher than that. Of course that's from zero hundred eight, so it was like two tenths of a point away from perfection on the QBR.

It's fantastic. I mean, just everything he did sixteen and seventeen, so we're talking about accuracy, Uh, you know, thirteen point one yards per attempt, which is a big statistic for me. He was just terrific. And you know, listen, I'm a stealer fans of hard for me to say any positive about the Ravens all these years. But what have I said? John har But I think the second best coach in the NFL, he said, I think he deserves a lot of He deserves a lot of credit for not trying

to make Lamar Jackson what he's not. I mean, this kid is a fantastic talent and they have kind of used that to the best of his ability. And the evens they're inconsistent, I know what people are saying. I mean every team in the NFL's inconsistent, you know, I mean every one of them. So let's not go overboard knock in the Ravens. I think they're really good. They have a great chance to to win the Super Bowl, and uh, I I like them in this spot there Therefore,

I think that's a little cheap. I thought this number would be closer to six myself, So it's four and four and a half. I'm an open four and a half like the higher number here. Uh. You know, Houston, they have their moments to no doubt about it. They're pretty decent team. But you know, Baltimore, boy Jackson is just unbelievable and unbelievable talent, and they're really using him about as well as they can. I hope he stays healthy. That's the one thing. The guy that runs like that. Uh,

you know they're looking at Cam Newton um. You know, it wore him down over the course of years. I hope Jackson does not get worn down. I think I hope he's more like Russell Wilson and learns how to avoid taking the big hits. And that lasts a long time in this league, you know, because he really is

a terrific player. Well, there's so many things there. One, you know, his uh, his backup RG three, the knock on r G three, among several knocks, but one of them was, oh, he he all, he just takes punishment. He didn't know how to get out of bounds. And I always thought that that was such results oriented criticism of r G three. Right, he got hurt. I get it, but it wasn't because he was doing anything differently than

anybody else. So I think you're right, you hope that Lamar Jackson can stay healthy, But you said it earlier and and and this is sort of macro football to me. Give the Ravens where they used Lamar Jackson for what he is. They didn't try to make him something that he wasn't. I always say Joe Gibbs, the reason that I consider him the greatest coach of all time is that he tailored his xs and ohs to the personnel

that he had. Whenever he had that specific personnel, he wasn't arrogant, he didn't come in thinking it's my system. I know what's going on, and the only way to play is my way. And those are the marks of the truly great coaches. And Parlay and I had this conversation before the show Lamar Jackson, who again the Colts maneuvered to pick someone else at the during the first round of that draft, and then they just decided sort of at thirty two, Uh, yeah, let's let's go get

the quarterback. Why not? And why not? Because John Horball did not come as a defensive coach or as an offensive coach, right, he was a special teams coach. There was really no identity that he had to uh conform to. And I find them Horball Jackson, I find that team so likable from that standpoint. And we wondered, we sort of were, you know, thinking football if Lamar Jackson ended up somewhere else. And this is the big hypotheticals in the National Football League that you can never answer. But

I used to say the reverse of that. I used to say they used to make people's heads explode that if Peyton Manning were drafted by my Washington Redskins, he never would have become Peyton Manning. Now people are like, Oh, you're crazy. No, I'm not, because he would have had a different coach and he would have had a different coordinator every single year. Now, do I think he would have sucked? No, he comes from pedigree, his dad was in the NFL. I don't think he ever would have

bottomed out. But would I would he be a much more pedestrian quarterback than he ended up being. Absolutely, Now, there's no way I can prove it. There's no way you can prove it. But I think about someone like Lamar Jackson. I'm wondering if he ends up with any of those other teams early in the first round, and Parley and I were talking about this, who would those teams be? The Dolphins, the Jets, the Bills. I'm leaving one out, You're you're leaving out Cleveland and Cleveland right,

Cleveland at the very top. If he ends up with any of those other teams, does he end up first of all playing at this point right? Perhaps? Yes? But do those coaches have the humility as opposed to the arrogance to let Lamar Jackson's skill set dictate what's going on, as opposed to imposing their will on him? And there's no way we can know that, and so that's why to me, this is a beautiful thing that's happening in Baltimore. Yeah,

I'm with you, you know. I mean, there's a lot of teams that I think have ruling the quarterbacks over the years. And when was the last time the Bear has had a good quarterback? I mean Jim McMahon was, you know, pretty serviceable, obviously won a Super Bowl. You know, I've been watching football. I'm sixty three years old. You know, Bobby Douglas was a second. That's what Jim Avalini going way back, that they have not figured out how to

use or how to draft quarterbacks. Now they draft, they move up to draft Trabinsky, and I'm not sure Trabinsky is the answer. Not looks like not, you know, but his coaching certainly has not helped him, not at all. And you can make that. I've heard, you know, Mike Greenberg on ESPN says they ruin more quarterbacks and they developed and I think that's absolutely true. And you know, Baltimore, I guess they're they're developing Jackson, but he's developing himself

a lot too, and they're letting him do it. And uh, like I said, I'm as a Steeler fan and it's hard. I hate seeing that success out of Baltimore, but you have to appreciate it for what it is. I mean, there's a that's a good organization and they handled this kid a hundred percent. Right. We'll come back. We'll do the afternoon games Week eleven. Guessing lines in the National Football League with Chris Andrews. It's a numbers game right here at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with

Jill Alexander, Craig Parley's father Jeff Parlay. Excuse me, Jeff Parley father Kreig Barley. It's the drugs, Jeff. They blame it all on that's me. Don't blame it on the sunshine. Don't blame it on the moon light. Don't blame it all the good times. Blame it on the drugs. Uh. Craig Parl's Jeff's father loved the Raheem Morris reference. Thank you. Back when he was coaching the Bucks, Bill Simmons created

a stat name after him to measure coaching performance. It was called wins above Raheem Morris or warm, not to be confused with war. That was a fine Bill Simmons moment. Warm, what was your worst Bill Simmons moment? I have a few, getting to those later. All right, let's do afternoon games, Chrissie Chris Andrews later. You can follow him by the way on Twitter Andrew Sports. And of course the name

of the book. We haven't plugged the book yet today for goodness sakes, um it's called Then one Day forty years of bookmaking in Nevada with Chris Andrews. All the great story times are in there in written form. Some you may not remember being told, just great detail, wonderful and you told one of them last week to great response, the old horse racing one. That's all classic. Yeah, little Britain.

What's what's the movie? It's a Woody Allen movie where Alan all That plays this total jerk and he says, now, comedy is tragedy plus time. Well, that's a tragedy plus time. I can laugh at it now, wasn't that funny on the day? And I can tell you that tragedy plus time? I love that. Yeah, it's kind of true anyway, Okay, uh niners. Of course playing tonight, we have Arizona at the San Francisco for you Niners. How do we feel

about that game tonight? By the way, Niners. All the analytics folks love the Niners tonight, and then of course there's an m v P. Russell Wilson to uh pull out the analytics. Niners, as you mentioned, favored by six? Is it tonight still the number? Yeah? Six? Uh? In San Francisco? Good Monday night game. Do you just say

San Francisco is playing Arizona again? Didn't they just play a second ago Arizona at San Francisco this tome So this is the second game in three weeks between these two teams, second game in three weeks between these teas. They had a Thursday night affair where Arizona back door them uh to cover If you recall on an eighty eight yard touchdown pass yesterday, Arizona, as we pointed out, lost to Tampa Bay Kyler Murray in typical and typical Kyler Murray fashion. He is not fun to bet against.

Arizona covers forty four for Kyler four yards, three touchdowns, a pick sack twice, three carries thirty eight yards. Christian Kirk six catches for one thirty eight three touchdowns. He's a fantasy Juggernaut yesterday. Here's the thing with Arizona. They were one for ten on third down, two for two on fourth downs. They had eleven penalties for eighties seven yards, and as I mentioned, Murray's uh streak without throwing a pick, which he had since September twenty nine, the span of

six games that got snapped. Arizona also lost a fumble for the first time all season. How about that fumble luck fans? If you're a fan of fumble luck, I give you the Arizona Cardinals who lost their first fumble yesterday. So you can figure this one out. That spread two weeks ago. If I recall, I guessed San Francisco minus ten. You opened it at eight. It came to me at ten. So if that was San Francisco by ten on the road,

Arizona ended up covering, this is now San Francisco at home. Uh. Mechanically it would be a six point shift because Arizona covered. Let me dock that I will say san Francisco minus fourteen. You can kind of do this formulaically. Yeah, I don't disagree with your number, but it's thirteen and a half and I kind of like that a little bit better. Um, you know Kyler Murray. Hey, listen, he's better than I thought he was gonna be. I really I didn't like

him coming out. I just thought he was too little. But you know he's played well. We talked about lasting in this league and see him lasting too long. But you know, I don't like coaching so much for Arizona all the you know they covered yesterday, God knows. Um, I like thirteen and a half here, just you know San Francisco is gonna be coming off a Monday night game. You know, winner loses a big game facing Seattle, a long time rival. Arizona not that much, even though they're

in the same division. But I like thirteen and a half. That's where I'm gonna open it. We'll see what happens tonight. But I think that's a pretty decent number. I wouldn't want to go too high against Kyler Murray because they are definitely covering some numbers, no doubt about it, No doubt about in San Francisco. Of course, as Chris mentioned, Site Unseen haven't played yet. We'll see what happens tonight.

What else in the afternoon, New England at Philadelphia. Oh, there's a game this was the This was the matchup that I had predicted for the Super Bowl this year before the season started. That's not looking all that great. On the Philly side, New England's eight and one, Phillies five and four, both coming off a bye here. Um, I'll just say there for since there's no game to

talk about yesterday, New England minus three on the road. Well, I kind of like your number better, but it's three and a half and I don't want to play that little three three and a half game all week, So I'm gonna open it three and a half and see what they want to do with it. I think some wise guys might be on the dog. I think that kind of think the bogg is the right side here. I think three and a half's a little too high, and I think it'd be a tank for Philadelphia. You know,

Philly is one of those teams. Again. We're just waiting for them to get it together and maybe having the week off will help them do that. Exactly that. I mean, New England. They' the best team that though, they you know, probably, but their heads above everybody, I don't think so. You know, they really played a very soft schedule so far, and you know Brady is still Brady, but I'll probably get a bunch of tweets from people from New England, you know, but you know, he's not what he was. And the

defense I think has really carried them. But again, they've played a lot of soft opponents so far this year. And I think Philly, I think they certainly have the potential to get it together. I think to meet three and a halfs that take here, I'm gonna open it three and a half. But if I was out there betting, I think I would. I think I'd be out there and play on Philadelphia plus the three and a half. You know, as you're as you're saying that, I'm thinking to myself, how many teams in the a f C

truly scare you? So New England because it's New England, it's Belichick and it's Brandy, and you always know they're scary. Uh, Baltimore because of Lamar Jackson just the X factor. You you can't defense Houston maybe honorable mention, but like, is there any other team that's not horrifically flawed other than that? Kansas City's defense is Oakland's defense is awful. You know, we're not for his offenses is awful. I mean, that's

kind of it. That's kind of a list. So I said three, but you're opening three and a half because you don't want to play a three and a half three game. Yeah, I mean you know, like like he texted early in the show, Yeah, that three wad killed us on Dallas last night. And I definitely had a chance to come into three. Um. So I think this will be a very well bet game, and it should be. This This is a terrific matchup, a Super Bowl matchup

from a couple of years back. But um, you know, I think I think three and a halfs a take. I I kind of like the dog here last one afternoon, last one of the afternoon Sincecinnati at Oakland Cincinnati, your only winless team in football. Oh and no, oh my god, the terrible too. Yeah yeah, and I and I've said it for weeks. Um, Zack Taylor the the most bewildered looking guy on any sideline ever, the oh and nine Oakland's five and four. My goodness, has Oakland just exceeded expectations?

And that's the understatement of all time. Uh. Leventh in a row, by the way, leventh loss in a row for Cincinnati if you extended back into the last season, Ryan Finley sixteen of thirty four, one sixty seven yesterday and there forty nine to seventeen excuse me, thirteen loss yesterday to the Ravens. One touchdown, pass, one pick, sack twice, Joe Mixon thirty carries for a hundred fourteen yards Oakland. If you recall from back on Thursday night, which we

didn't really get to talk about. I wasn't here on Friday because I was under under the knife. But God, our Philip Rivers and the Chargers frustrating. They are just murder murdered to back and Philip Rivers. That's that game to me is why he's not a Hall of Famer. To me, I think his stats may put him into the Hall of Fame, but that game is why he's not a Hall of Famer. But Oakland doing Oakland things. Twelve penalties in that game for ninety seven yards, but

they were plus three in turnovers against the Chargers. That's why they won that football game. Ultimately, great drives of the Raiders at the end of both a half and the game to win for betters on both the half and the game um Oakland minus ten. Wow, it's gotta be that, right, It's gotta be double digits. I'll say ten. Yeah, it's a ten and ten and a half. I'm gonna use the ten and a half. I mean, here's one big jo You failed to mention Joe Mixing fourteen yards

thirty carries. Yea, they were losing from the beginning. They gave this kind of ball thirty times. Yeah, you gotta be kidding me. It's a great point, guy. I mean, you're supposed to try to get back into the game at some point. I know that's highly see it radical. I mean they blasted from early on in the game. You give this guy thirty carries? Where is Zach Taylor?

How could he? I mean, he'll keep his job just because it's the own family and owns them, and they're certainly one of the cheapest owners in the NFL, and they don't want to be paying some guy that they probably signed with three or five in the contract who's not going to be there anymore. But he is totally clueless.

And uh, you know, talking about teams that have ruling quarterbacks, I'm not saying Andy Dalton would have been Peyton Manning but you people put him in the right situation, he would have been a much better quarterback than what his career has been. And uh, they just have so many problems on that team. And and I've been on him yesterday, so I guess they have a little bit of resentment

when I say bet on him. I'm in a couple of contests and I had them, and I think all three contests and I'm in, Uh, they just were awful and like from right in the beginning, like Joe Bixy had thirty carry, I think right like thirty carry, when you're you're getting blasted from early in the game, it's just ridiculous. Um, So I'm goody ten and a half. And it's one of those that, uh, you know, you know, one of the old things I loved and bettings. Don't

beat a dead horse and plash. Sure, I don't feel like beating the dead horse of the Cincinnati Bengals, But this might be a little too high. Oakland coming off a very impressive win, and we talked about Mike Tomlin being coach of the Year. I think what Jon Gruden's got to be up there too. He's really done a terrific job. I knocked Derek Carr quite a bit, you know, a few weeks ago. Since then, he's actually played some pretty darned good football and they're kind of coming together.

And I don't know how much is Derek Carr, how much is maybe Gruten coaching them up. But Gruden has done a very very good job with this team. So I'm gonna open ten and a half. It's probably a little too high, but I'll be darned if I'm gonna be on Cincinnati again this week. I just can't take it anymore. I just can't take it anymore. Do the Bengals draft Jeff bringing this, Do the Bengals draft Joe Burrow number one? If they end up with the first pig has to be I guess it's got to be again.

We were talking about it before with with two against Burrow. It's very easy to look as great as two has looked when receivers are running wide open by thirty yards. By the way, you assumed that it was Joe Burrow versus two way, it's not even two is not even close to me to be the number one pick in the draft. To me, it's Joe Burrow versus Chase Young. Have to take the quarterback. I mean Finely. Finely's almost in as much over his head as as Taylor as

in the NFL level. Chase Young, Chase Young, Welcome to the Nation's capital. That's what I'm That's what that's what I'm doing for here. Yeah. But you know, Joe Burrow, somebody posted his hunt Twitter. There was a picture of Burrow looking like just kind of despondent. Must have just been a moment or something. Here's the Joe Burrow face realizing he was going to be drafted by the Cincinnati bank rolls. Yeah. Yeah, I hate to see them ruling

this kid. I said to Lombardi weeks ago, though, because we're always talking about like the drafts and how none of us know anything. Just think, even on the collegiate level, right before we even get to the draft, we're talking about does Dan Mullen did he not see the Trask was better than Filippe Franks in practice? Like go or you were tending practices, you didn't know that? Why are we to think that Burrow wasn't better than Dwayne Haskins all along? Why are we to think that Fields wasn't

the best option to George all along? Like these guys are in the practices. You can't even tell that. They can't even tell you who the best quarterback is. Um, but Joe burrow Man to say he was the best player on the field on Saturday is captain obvious of all obvious. He was just a pro among amateurs, uh, in that football game. So uh yeah, since Innati Bengals at least right now, Uh, that's who would have the first pick and the Skins would have the number two

pick in the draft. We'll come back, We'll do the primetime games. And remember with the NFL season now more than halfway through, uh, we gotta really all covered visas, all access subscription special deal to mark the occasion. Dollars get you everything we do from now through the Super Bowl. That means you get uh fifteen issues. I'll say it's fourteen issues now. Point Spread Weekly are digital magazine that's made to make you a better handicap or not just

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All of that for just but if you're not sure yet, there's even an option for a free trial just at a Visa dot com s Last Subscribe for details. That's Visa dot com S Last Subscribe. Because after all, like Brent likes to say, cashing tickets is what it's all about. So again, head to Visa dot com S Last Subscribe for everything you need to know for that special deal, we'll come back. We'll do the primetime game Sunday night, Monday night Week eleven guessing lines right here on a

numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander. I want to know what the most harrowing part of my achilles surgery was. On Friday, Jeff, my my brother, kind enough to take time off work and come here to uh to uh be with me during the surgery. I of course took off work to schedule the surgery. It's scheduled for the for the surgeon himself. Um, everything's going and everything all right. I change in the clothes and my gown, get the I V and me

it's all ready to go. And then they look at me and they go, ah, there's been a hold up. I'm sorry. What. Yeah, there's a little problem maybe with the insurance. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. What is that? Yeah, there's someone who doesn't like want to approve it. I'm like, what the surgeon comes by, it's like, yeah, so there's some dude who's got like a quota of getting rid of surgeries off his book, who's like holding up everybody's life. Let me ask you a question. Everybody's rearrange their life.

If they tell us, I said, what's the worst they could happen here, They're like, oh, we could cancel the case. Oh when I walk out of here with one leg attached to one foot, that's it. That's how that works. Haroin. That was the worst part of the whole day. What a system. We'll point that out. I had to deal with them mentally. Let's see the primetime games. This has been a public service announcedent. Let's do the prime time games. Chrissie,

what's Sunday Night. Don't get me started or night. Sure, I've been very fortunate and will dropping at that. Did you imagine God? Yeah, twined my wife with her brain tour and me with mine MDS. I've been very fortunate. Yes, not everybody is quite so fortunate. I was gonna say, my my problem is not a problem. When everybody you know, you know here yours, It puts it all in perspective,

that's for sure. Well, I got a great story. I don't want to tell on the here, but I mean i'd tell you privately about someone who did not have insurance. Pretty pretty bad story. Yeah, okay, Uh, Chicago Bears at the l A Ramps. That's Sunday Sunday Night team. Well, lucky for Jared Goff, it's actually in l A because this guy wilt in clement weather. And when I say

in clement, I mean it gonna gets below forty. We used have a joke in d C where I grew up when like we we didn't handle snowwell and so like when the temperature got below forty degrees, like the school superintendents were like, for God's sakes, get those kids out of school. Like there was some imminent danger. That's Jerry Golf. He's that school superintendent. Uh. Yesterday, the Bears beat the lines. As we mentioned Mr Rbiskie sixteene for

one seventy three, three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked five times. But the Bears on offense two of twelve on third downs, grand total of two d twenty six yards of offense. They do snap their four game losing streak. By the way, they were so happy with their win. Matt Naggy. This is a quote from him after the game talking about his players. Quote, they ended up doing some one on one dancing, which is pretty neat. Unquote,

that's awesome. Rams loose to the Steelers. As we pointed out, Jared Goffty one to forty three, no touchdown passes, two picks, He was sacked four times. The lone Rams touchdown on the twenty six yards scoop and score from Dante Fowler on the second snap of the game. The Rams were one of fourteen on third downs yesterday. Let me repeat that, one of fourteen on third downs. Oh for two on four. They had four turnovers minus two turnover differential, ten benalties

for ninety five yards. If it weren't for Aaron Donald, it might have been worse. He was grace finished. He got a safety, five tackles, half a sack, two tackles for a loss. Um Cooper Cup held without a catch for just the second time in his three year career. And Todd Gurley man Chrissy, that dude has no burst anymore. Seventy three yards on twelve carries. Uh, he was not involved with any regularity, sat out the first two series of the fourth quarter. He's got a huge contract, I said,

of course, made people's heads want to explode. I said to Lombardi, I'm on record, they should have made Jared Goff the first guy only on a rookie deal. That then they then just recycled into some other rookie deal, because you can't win Super Bowls unless you got a Hall of Famer or guy over performing on a rookie deal. But they gave him a hundred thirty four million guaranteed. So they got these two massive contracts. I don't know what this means for the Rams. There five and four.

The Bears are four and five, huge game for playoff, staying in the playoff picture. I'll say the Rams by six at home. I like your number way better at six and half. I evedn't see some sevens. He's going to be high. If anything, Wow, she's I'll tell you this is like the mismanagement of your quarterback Bowl of signing anyway. Uh, you know, Chicago of course traded up to get Mitchell Trabisky. I'm looking at the numbers yesterday. Numbers for Travisky weren't that bad. I watched a little

bit of that game that he was awful. I man, I don't know what to say. And then I'm looking at his qbowa sixty four point seven, which is pretty good. He was terrible. I'm sorry. I mean there are their offense, particularly the first half was just terrible, and they wound up, you know, making Hay kind of the second half a little bit, and and like I said, they kind of came around. They won the game, covered the number. Uh, and golf was just awful in his own right. And

I agree with you. I was a little slow to come around on just how bad golf is. But uh, you know, they dedicated a hundred some million arsk I and uh cheese, oh man, this, you know, I just think this number is too high. I got to see this final being like thirteen ten something like that, just a terrible Sunday night game. But in that case you probably got to take the dog um. As bad as the Bears have been, you know, the Rams haven't been any better. So you know, I'm gonna open six and

a half just because I set them sevens around. But I like six and a half certainly way better than the seven. But I like your number at six, and even that it might be a little bit too high. It's uh this this mark me down here. I like the Bears in this flor Let's do money that real quick.

Kansas City at the Chargers, And this one is an International Series game Jeff at s Teca in Mexico City, assuming they can get the field right, because remember this was the Chiefs Rams game last year that was supposed to take place in Mexico City that the field wasn't ready for and so they had to uh move its date side. So this one is scheduled for Mexico City, Chiefs at at Chargers. The Chiefs, as we mentioned, loose

to the Titans yesterday. Look, the Chiefs could have covered this and this ended up being around a six or five point spread. Uh Chiefs could have covered it, but it was not to be. Ryan Tannehill throwing a twenty three yard touchdown to Adam Humphrey's with twenty three seconds left, Joshua Kaloo blocking a last second field goal attempt to beat the Chiefs. The Titans did thirty thirty two to

spoil Patrick mahomes return. Um. Titans only had a chance after a bad snap by the Chiefs on Harrison Butler's fifth field goal attempt of the day. Remember, the Chiefs were up trying to go up eight points um when there was a blame at least any Red blamed communication for the snap taking holder Dustin cuil quit by surprise, and then he ended up throwing the ball away in desperation, got intentional grounding call that set the Titans up at their own thirty nine and the rest is history. So

it shows you plinko in the NFL. Uh tennessee now eleven and oh straight up under rabel by the way, when tighter leading at the half um, but the Chiefs look. Patrick Mahomes was great right, four forty six yards passing three touchdowns. Note pics Tyreek was grade eleven for one fifty seven and a touchdown. They ran seventy eight plays. The Chiefs did five yards. But their defense is drac and the Chargers that I just mentioned, I can't trust them at all. I'll say the Chiefs minus three on

the neutral site, you're a little low. I see three and a half and four and many opened three and a half. I didn't see one. Four and a half and it gets too high. Um, I like to I think three and a halfs Okay. Mostly, I don't know what to think because the Chargers just do chargery thing. Yes, the blow games, but they could cover as a dog for sure. In Kansas City, by the way, the Chargers Gordon had a hundred yards on the ground first first really good game of the year. And Kansas City what

did my headline knows? Oh yeah, Henry had twenty three carriages for a yard account. You know that's uh, I mean, that's some pretty bad defense on the part of Kansas City. Yeah, Chris again, let me jump in, let's take let's take a break, and let's recap them all. Because I know you you have your favorites. I'm struggling to come up with mine, but I'll come up with him next. We'll recap him next right here on the numbers game guessing lines at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with

Jill Alexander. Here's his tweet about Chiefs, by the way, who are playing on Monday night against the Chargers in Mexico City. Um, a little testament to Andy Reid here uh from Ronnie Jazz A year early. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost by seven points or less in their last thirteen losses, including the playoffs, longest streak longest such streak in NFL history lost by seven points or less in their last thirteen losses. Here's what I like, Chrissie,

after I so rudely interrupted you there. I like the Dolphins again. I like the Chiefs giving three. Um, what are you opening that one at three? Is it three and a half? We're Chiefs three three? And I like them because I think they should have covered yesterday. And I like Minnesota. I think tends to light. What do you like? Real quick? I like Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears. You really like the Bears. I know that was one of your favorite Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, Bears for Chrissie. Chris,

thank you again, love you for it. I hope you're feeling better. You too than you. I'm fine, I'll find I'll be all right. The drugs are wonderful. Chris Andrews, Lades gentlemen. Follow me on Twitter again at Andrews Sports. Follow me at Beating the Book.