Beating The Book: 2019 Q3 MLB Derivative Stats Show

Love that idea, covering both college and pro football. Find The Football Analytics Show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcast. Check that out today on the show. It's our mlb Q three derivative show. Every club in Major League Baseball more or less rounding the one game mark, so you know how we do this. If you've been

a frequent listener to the show through the years. Public domain stats available on the show today, as well as the much more proprietary first five inning and first inning stats for all your betting needs to the Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your host Alexander. Oh yeah, and is the numbers game right here in Bason, Vegas. Stats and Information Networks serious except Channel two or four

Visa dot Com, the Visa appen voices. If you're hearing voices in your head while I was talking right there, it's not you. It actually happened just there on the air. It's skill Alexander. What's happening? Party people, Jeff Parl's producing number five is here is well. Good morning to Jeffrey and ladies and gentlemen joining us for what is a Q three MLB derivative show. We'll do other things. We'll talk golf with Brady Cannon, and we'll talk about today's

baseball slate as well. But it is right at the one twenty game mark, one twenty one game mark for most Major League Baseball teams. So what does our Q three MLB derivative show? And joining us for the first time for this endeavor, ladies and gentlemen. He's here yesterday, he's here today, Star of Jewish follow the Money Here, it's Lasdell. Let's Todd Wish. Good morning Todd, Good morning Gil. Welcome to the Gil and Todd Show, and thanks for coming.

Thank you for having me. Todd appreciate it. Um you uh you excited about little derivatives here man, because we're gonna through all these baseball stats, and again we're gonna try to determine how much of this is narrative and how much of this is predictive moving into the last quarter of the season. By the way, I'm if you've heard me on this show a couple of times I talked about how the Yankees can put any blob of

meat in a Yankee stadium. You've in a Yankee uniform, and all of a sudden they hit the ball out of the ballpark. And I said, oh, well, the Yankees are probably stealing the signs like the Cardinals did a couple of years ago. So this guy, David Lionetti, sent me a thing on Twitter. It's an article from the Boston Globe why the Red Sox are looking for counter espionage inside their caps. What they're doing now is they're putting they keep switching the signs so they don't get

people stealing their signs. So like, if Christian Vasca is the catcher, maybe it's the third sign one time, it's the fourth sign of different time, it's the second sign a different time. And I didn't read the whole article, but they have like a little cheat sheet in their cap as to which sign is the correct sign to foil counter to foil people who are trying to steal their signs. So stealing signs is a real thing, folks.

And if you watch these yeah, and if you watch The Yankees with Cameron Maybon, Mike Talchman as you like to call him, I'm claiming him Brave val Era and of course my favorite guy, pizza aficionado. Now I don't know this for sure, but I have a feeling he likes pizza. Mike Ford down at first base, you're disdained from Mike Ford. Actually, Mike Ford, I'm sure is a great guy. But you know, you know, when you're fat,

sometimes you don't like fat and others. It's like a psychological thing, you know, you hate what you see in others. So because I'm a fat so I've got you know, I look at Mike Ford and I go, come on, you know you're in the major leagues, you should be, uh, you know, in shape. But as opposed as a Mike I apologize to you, you're on the Yankees keep stealing the signs as opposed to really relating to him and

finding him lovable. So you what you are suggesting is that the Eggies because anyone who puts on a uniform all of a sudden becomes amazing. They have to be stealing. It's tongue in cheek. I'm staying a tongue in cheek. I'm not saying I would bet on it, but I saying it's kind of fishy. I understand by the way I am claiming Tauchmann, there had to be an Ellis Island incident. I just want to point that out. All right, let's do uh, let's do some major League baseball stats.

Now here it is is the Q three Derivative Show, and the point of this exercise and and we'll we'll intersperson throughout the show will also do today's games. But we're going to narrow this down. At first, it's gonna be very public domain stuff. And then we're gonna narrow it down into the proprietary stuff, which is first five innings. Uh, that's not quite propriet to. The first inning stuff is super proprietary. Um. But let's start with just the general things.

These are widely available. We get these from covers dot com. Let's give them a shot on this. These are the best um in terms of betting stats. Now, we don't care about real life here for this exercise, but in terms of the betting stats, the single most profitable teams in all of baseball a bizarro exerci eyes todd as if you bet this team every single game on the side, all year long, laying a unit as a dog, risking

more than a unit to win a unit as a favorite. Uh. And even when you do all that in the wash, here are your most profitable teams in baseball. Here most profitable clubs, it is the Yankees and the Dodgers, both at eighty and forty one in real life. See that the Yankees would have netted you in that Bizarro exercise nearly twenty units, and the Dodgers would have netted you eighteen units. So again, that's you bet them every day

sight unseen, you don't care the opponent whatever. Again, lay a unit as a dog, risk more than a unit to win a unit as a favorite. And even with the Yankees and Dodgers getting dealt big minus numbers right more often than not, even doing that, they're so good right eight and forty one in real life that they're still the most profitable teams in baseball. Well, let's look at the math. If they were eight and forty. Let's

just throw out the one. They would be winning two out of every three games if they were minus two hundred every game, and I assumed this would be like the midpoint line or they're they're just taking whatever their line was. So if they were minus two hundred every single game this year, they would have broken even if you would have bet them every single game. Obviously they there. You said, they're up about eighteen units in twenty games, so they're average prices is less than the average prices

probably somewhere in the neighborhood. I mean, I'm just doing the math off my off the top of my head, but probably one sixty maybe doesn't sound about right. Let me think about that. One sixty and forty units forty times one sixty is what point is is that they're exceeding their break even right there. They're doing better than they're breaking there. It is forty times one point six is uh sixty four losses. So right there, you know eight wins sixty four losses. You know you're talking about

they're averages right around one sixty. Minnesota, San Francisco at Oakland close out the three most profitable teams. This is just a money line bets. Now we're talking the Twins who uh caught most of baseball by surprise early let's say, generally speaking set seven in real life, they would have netted you over fourteen units this year. How about the Giants, the Giants who are back to five hundred again Todd Wishne making the daily mistake of not factoring enough Giants

magic into his model. Giants up thirteen units for betters. Uh, they're largely plus money night after night after night. And that's why, you know, you don't have to do better than five hundred to have netted thirteen units overall. By the way, we'll find out in these splits here momentarily how at home they're not profitable, and we see that on the screen right there, just a sort of portent of things to come. But away, man, they're a cash machine.

A's by the way, the other Bay Area team who the Giants beat last night, they're the fifth most overall profitable team at all at baseball. So another interesting point about that. In the old days, um, you know, it was you almost could never bet a minus two hundred. You just couldn't do it and win. And you see from these numbers here that it's almost like betting has been turned baseball. Betting has been turned it on its head.

This is what I listen I said before last season, Remember I said, very ear lonestly, we're about to enter an era of baseball where that chasm between the halves and the have knots gets wider and wider. And this year, I said earlier in the season, if you listen to the show, I said, you almost have to shut off your brain betting baseball, and the Yankees and the Dodgers being on top of that list is the manifestation of that. They're they're huge favorites. Every night, you still would have

made the most money in baseball betting on them. That says it, all right, you know, you know it's not shutting off your brain. It's actually using your brain. You know what I mean. No, I don't know. I know what you're trying to say. But the point is you really have to use your brain even more in a sense. Value is value. Originally you're gonna think, oh wait, those

favorites can't make your money. But if you can recognize that some of these favorites versus the relative strength of the record of the league are not as good as it used to be. You know that that's in an effect, it's the opposite. You have to use your I understand exactly what you mean by that, right, you know, just take the favorites. But I'm saying you really fact that you have to recalibrate value. Right, you have to recalibrate

with saying it recalibrate. Thank you, don thank you. That's why I'm here, That's why you're here, Rather to be my hype man, flavor, my flavor flavor. You know, you're going out there and you're being cerebral, and that's what we want. We don't want physical we want some cerebral Dodd on football, I loved I was lost yesterday. So here the least, the least profitable, the teams that have hemorrhaged you the most money. Now, this is a bizarro exercise, right.

If you're going out and you're betting the Tigers every night's light unseen, I would suggest to you you're probably doing this wrong. Um, but the Tigers. If you bet the Tigers every single day of the baseball season, again, this is the flip of the Ygges and the Dodgers, right, their plus money and big plus money by and large when Matthew Boyd's not pitching. Exception to the rule, the Tigers are thirty and eighty one. If you bet them

every night, you're down thirty three units. See. Now here's something that I would love to see when they do these these you know charts. What about if you bet against the Tigers every night, so you wouldn't be up. You would be up like thirty seven minus the viig correct the other way, but I think you'd still be up. But that would be an interesting point as well. It's a good point. So it's just if no one's gonna bet the Tigers every night, unless you're like some kind

of crazy, die hard Tiger fan. But what would be interesting is how I guess we could figure out because that, yeah, that would represent the bookies take right, that's the strattle. So we went back the other way, twenty cents the other way exactly on every would it be every loss or everyone. I'm just trying to think about that now because there's a radio audience. Now you're just here getting too much, so we're getting too mathematical. No, but I understand your your point is a good one, right by

the way. So, the second most hemorrhaging team for betters in baseball this year is the defending World Series champion Red Sox. And this is a team that obviously off a championship, comes in with high expectations, so there's gonna be a lot of minus money on them, particularly early in the season, and that cost betters a pretty penny. You'd be down twenty six units betting the World's Are's Chance blindly all year long as a favorite as a

dog every single game. Royals, Mariners, Pod Rays, no Surprise, three four five. But the Red Sox are kind of the you know, one thing is not like the other. They're They're the team that stands out. And by the way, most years you have one or two or three teams that are at the bottom because the expectations or that, you know, the money the lines getting dealt on them on a daily basis is just not commensurate with their performance. It's the Red Sox to get the Booby Prize on

that this year. By the way, I just did the math in my head. Now I might be doing it wrong, but I think you'd still be up if you bet against the Tigers every game. Somewhere in the neighbor. Yeah, I think it's something somewhere could be wrong. No, no,

but that's the point right there. You'd be down thirty three if you bet on them, but if you had bet against them, you wouldn't be up thirty three about still very nicely in thirty And as far as the Red Sox, well, that's an obvious you know, this reminds me of the Cubs a couple of years ago after they won the World Series. That came out and we're played five hundred the first half of the year, and had you just bet against the Cubs every game, you'd

have been a bazillion dollars. So this is your Red Sox, uh World Series hangover their sixty three and fifty nine. But yet, especially at home, look at those home numbers. I'm sure tons of that represents all those sale losses at minus that's minus three. He's probably a huge portion of it. On the road they're only down three, so a huge amount of Let's do we have the split numbers before we get the splitt in the splits right there, I know, But do we have a separate chart of

the splitter? We don't like the home the top home and top yeah, yeah, we have Okay, well before we get to that, just one last thing on they have the Padres. Look at the Padres away. You would have made one United States dollar playing the Padres on road based on these numbers. Anyway, with all of this, the point of this exercises Okay, that's what's happened the first three quarters of the season. Now the endeavor here is to now figure out going into the final court of

the season. Is this just a fun thing to talk about in a narrative or is there any predictive value to this? And I would suggest on some of these things there will be predictive value. On other things, we're just kind of talking about it because it's fun to talk about, right, But there is some intuitive sense to some of the things that moving forward we'll find out more that blok to the home road splits just is

uh really one other point? Yes, the Mariners, if I remember correctly, might have been twelve and three to start the year and two much so if you take those out, they're tiger like. They are tiger like, no question, they're tiger like. All right, So now this is again just we'll do the home teams. The subset of what We

just found out the Dodgers, who were second overall. They're the number one home team for Baseball bettors this year, forty eight and sixteen at home, twenty units uh in people's pockets at home, so which means, by the way, that they're slightly negative on the road. If I'm not mistaken the Dodgers Rangers. I wouldn't have expected the Rangers, but they're they're Rangers, very profitable at home. Second most profitable team at home because they're thirty five and twenty

two at home. Astro's Yankees, Cubs and Boyd. The Cubs have a stark home road split that we keep saying night after night. Cubs get fourteen k's from Kintana last night and managed to lose again. They're two and three on their current road trip, which has five more games left in and and uh. The St. Louis Cardinals are not gonna have the dough in the NL Central one back. But the Cubs fifth most profitable home team. Least profitable home teams, Oh what he notes the Tigers and the

Red Sox at the bottom. There what is perhaps the usual suspects. If I could say that, let's just go real quick to ther way teams here this is just overall. These are widely available. Again, these are courtesy of covers. Most profitable road teams, the San Francisco Giants, Los Gantees will be up for almost fourteen units for betters who closely followed by the Twinkies and the Rays Braves are up.

Those are the four teams that would have netted you double digit units just betting them on the road blindly. Least profitable road teams the aforementioned Chicago Cubs, worst road team money wise in Baseball. The Marlins are the only team worst record wise in the National League in real life, but because the Marlins are always getting plus money and the Cubbies are often times in minus even on the road, Cubs would have hemorrhaged you fifteen units if you just

let bet them blindly on the road. They're twenty three and thirty six on the road, and they lead a division in baseball. Royals, Mets, Tigers, Astros, Tigers on all is the one that really shocks me. Then, but yet down eight seventy, which tells you they're always big money. You know they're still on the road. They're still huge money. By the way, last night. Very strange circumstance with game two of that double header, and we talked a little

bit about this off air. Garrett Cole was expected to be the Game two starter, and he was what like minus three sixty something like that. Some some people are saying three, maybe three, It depends where you were shopping. But really there was a pitching change really late, like really late. It wasn't like people had had a chance to really adjust to it. Yeah, so the line didn't really have a didn't move that much off it. Usually

they they move it automatically. Thought it was very strange because who was Davinski Nsky was went off three sixty and I was like, that can't be right. I don't remember a circumstances like that that was so close to game time. And then I didn't even I didn't even realize that that was the line going into a Devinsky until someone like someone mentioned it later. I was like, oh, I didn't notice it either until it was like in the third inning and I looked up. I said Devinsky

minus three sixty. Usually they air move it when there's when there's a pitching It's not like anybody moves it with the with the money very They just quickly air move it, and I would think they would at least move it down like to exactly paying attention at that moment. Of course, they lose the game, and of course they lose the second game. Right it's right four to one to the White Sox. Um they had a lot of their their hitters out in the second game. We'll come back.

We'll do the best and worst run line teams for better than all of baseball. Then we'll talk first five intings. We'll talk up well and we'll get the first five. Eventually, we'll talk umpires, will talk starting pitchers. We'll do it all the Q three MLB derivative show. Todd Wishnev is here as well as Jeff Parlay, Gill Alexander right on a numbers game at Vicent. Welcome back to a numbers

game with Jill Alexander, produce the number five. Jeff Parls tells me that we got Charles Barkley back in the intro of the show. Is that true? I stepped on him. We we all stepped on him. We didn't realize where Barkley was in the intro, so I gotta let him breathe. It's been a big Twitter discussion the last It's amazing how how much the folks love Chuck. Do we have Barkley on the fade out or something? All Right, I

gotta lit a breathe. Well here, next time we get tweets beating the book, I love you all for tweeting us. Um Okay, more Baseball best worst run line teams in all baseball gain bizarrow exercise when you're betting these teams on the run line each and every single game of the season, which no one is actually doing, but it gives a sense of which teams have been profitable, at least profitable for betters. Remember run line. When your favorite, you're giving a run and a half. When you're a dog,

you are getting a run and a half. So a lot of one run out comes will affect these numbers. I like to call it todd a de facto power ranking, because when you win, you win big. When you lose, sometimes you keep it closer. Oftentimes, if you're on the on the most profitable list most profitable run line teams in baseball, excuse me, the New York Yankees. No surprise there, they'd have you up thirty one units plus. Again, these

courtesy of covers dot Com. The Rangers and A's Diamondbacks and Indians wrap up the top five run line teams in baseball for betters. Now, it's a big drop from the Yankees to the Rangers, right, it's eighteen units. Like the Yankees are far in a way the best run line team in baseball this year because when they win, they crush you. Probably I'm sorry, no, no, but that was. But the Rangers, as diamond Backs and Indians probably surprise

a lot of people. Diamond Backs certainly. I think the Yankees kind of makes sense because of course they and then they have the decent relief so they don't let you back for a one run win when they should have won by two or three. And then, um, the Texas Rangers kind of makes sense to me because you don't really ever see the Rangers win a close game, you know, because they have a terrible bullpen. They either just we're killing the ball and winning or just losing,

you know, and now they don't even hit. But I'm saying earlier in the year, but if the Rangers are sixty eight and fifty one and run line games, doesn't that suggest that they're losing a lot of one run games. Probably well, they would imagine, and he goes to Todd's point, you could see them have leads in the bullpen. Blue it a lot earlier in the year for Texas, they lost a bunch of one run games when they were

getting the run and a half. I am, I am efforting as we speak the Rangers one run record just to see if it, uh, if it makes sense, and they know they're nineteen and nineteen in one run game, so that is a very curious record. Now on the on the least profitable, this is saying if on the run line, if you're minus one and a half or both both is kind of confusing. A little bit is a little bit, yes, because you don't know how should be two sets of stets minus one and half in

plus one and a half minus one. I've always said that. I think you're right about that. But for the purposes of day, Tigers once again the least of the least, right, twenty seven units down on the run line, it doesn't matter. They're just bad. Red Sox once again second worst on the run line. Rocky Zose and Pirates wrapping up that list, and Rockies make sense right because they play at corps and so you are more likely to lose games by

more than a run. And the other thing is the Detroit Tigers are probably plus a run and a half out of those a hundred and sixteen games. I bet you the run and a half a hundred times. So you don't like you don't like that one. I agree with you. I understand what you're saying. By the way, Jeff Parley, you had a point about the Astros to Todd who was saying before well, and also I would imagine it impacted that list too, because the Astros were minus to seventy or whatever the heck they were on

Sunday when they lost on the run line. Also, but they lost yesterday minus three sixty. They lost almost minus five dollars on Sunday. So there's basically there's a little over eight units right there. So the road road money record is what it is. Yeah, the road money line. They lost eight units two in the last three games, right, Yeah, it's incredible. Um, but surprize of you don't even have the r J special. We caught the r J special out in the sports book. RJ likes to lay the

j Alman's guy. He lays the two and a half, sometimes in the ridiculous lines, and so we call it the r J Special? Did you don't have the two? Did you want to share with people with? R J says about some of the employees. This is one of the one particular employer at this I know you don't want to share that. I think that should be left unset. He really is a fan. He's a fan of Yeah, he's a good, great guy. He is a great guy. Um, okay,

let's go to now. This is for let is to the pictures real quick starting pitchers, most least profitable starting pitchers. So this is I don't know how you feel about this again, Todd, but this is when this particular picture or pictures takes the hill. This is how his team ultimately performs with a win loss record and then the

associated profit or loss. This is interesting. Well, it's interesting because sometimes it doesn't have anything to do with the starter, right, They can have a marginal performance, but the team just happens to come through for them, or or the opo of that. Do we have these at all, Jeff? And all with the starting pitchers, I'll read them off here. Okay, give me the most profitable starting pitcher. So I'll read

them off here. Domingo Herman is number one. You're getting your plus a little over to a little over twelve units on Herman Andrew kash near her. Let's let's clarify why Herman. The Yankees are seventeen and three in games that her mom takes the hill. Yeah. Wow, he just shows up and they win baseball games because Talman crew go crazy. You know. I think there's something to that, actually, because I've seen, you know, I noticed this on uh,

really good teams when they lose. Sometimes it's when they're big starters in or something, and then I don't know, I don't have any data to back this up. Yeah, Josh Towers would say it's a random okay, but but but to your but to your point, it feels like that that certain teams, like the good teams know when they have a guy on the mound that they have to pull around, pull across for them, and they hit better. I don't know if that's true again, and probably is

just totally random. One of those random Orioles Cy Young winners in the eighties. I don't know if it's Gotti McGregor or Steve Stone, someone would have to check on this, Jim. But like, but like the Orioles would never lose when they were on the hill, like they were flann again. One of these guys would just have a ridiculous and it was you know, in those days we were into analytics as much. Right, so it's like, oh, okay, he

never loses this when lost, record is unbelievable. But like they would just show up for him every time, right, Yeah, some some alb al bumbery with the gloves sticking out the bash. Oh Gary Reddicky we interrupted, Jeff Parls. So it's Domingo Herman. Here they are on the screen, Jeff, did you catch that? Andrew Kashner had his first career saved last night. Andrew Kashner the new Red Sox closer. That's what I'm saying right now. By the way, Jeff, Jeff and I were watching at the same time. We

were on the phone, and he looked fun. He looked great. Yeah, uh, Kashner's number two. So these are again the most profitable starters in all baseball this year if you bet that team blindly when they started a game. So the Red Sox are eleven and six when oh yeah, the Orioles and the Red Sox. Remember he had with the Orioles, he was in plus money so much time that the

that the r o I was huge. But the teams that he has pitched for, Orioles and Red Sox eleven and six, when he's taken the hill, Brandon Woodruff sixteen in four, well he makes that makes a lot of sense because if you think about it, the guys that don't come in with big uh you know that come into the season with big reputations, aren't going to have big numbers. So if they have big, big years, they're gonna have giant r o I. Because because of that makes a lot of sense. Brandon Woodruff of the same

thing with Ryu Riyu. Wasn't exactly considered the best starter in baseball? Was he? He wasn't considered the best starter or the second best on his own team. Point taken Wade Miley, my favorite guy. Wait for those listening on on radio, Todd, let's explain what's going on here. This is not a television broadcasting. Sup I thought they could see the Brandon wood Ruff again. Brewer sixteen and four. When he takes the hill, they're up almost eleven units,

betting them blindly. Hungen Ryu fourth place, seventeen and five, Dodgers seventeen and five in games that new she started up almost ten units. Wade Miley is, as TADJS pointed out, seventeen and seven, the Astros seventeen and seven with Miley on the hill. So and look at that. It's interesting because he's there nine six and they're ten games over five, So he probably hasn't been that big a favorite. Wade Miley.

That's right. And then the least uh in r o I. In terms of the pitchers, the ones that have hemorred you the most money, no surprise looked. This list is always riddled with big names because big names have big juice, and when they have a season that is not stellar, this is what happens very quickly. Chris Sale your least profitable, your biggest hemorrhager of money um in all of baseball. As a starter, because the socks are nine and fifteen in games in which he started that it costs you

twenty units. So if all you did was bet, Chris Sale starts your twenty units down, and then a lot of them were at home where he was even bigger juice that's all right, Jacob deGrom. The Mets are nine in fifteen when he takes the hill. Just they haven't been as big favorites overall as Sale has been with the Red Sox, so he would have cost you a

fifth team plus units, not twenty plus like Sale. Max Scherzer third in terms of the hemorrhage list over ten units for betters this year, because the Nats are nine and the eleven, and then you've got Tyler Molly and uh Aaron Sanchez, Aaron Sanche Well, Aaron Sanchez one of the most underachieving pictures by advanced stats thus far this year. We'll come back, we'll do umpires, and then we'll get into the proprietary stuff first five and specifically proprietary on

the first inning stuff. Right here on the Q three MLB Derivative Show will do today's slate Todd Wish Nev alongside here on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game with you. Alexander Basins Pro Football

Betting Guy will be ready for download on Friday. Case you're wondering, just forty eight hours from now, purchase the sixty page digital magazine before Friday get it for after Friday about nineteen, or get the College Football Betting Guide along with the Pro Guide for just twenty five dollars, and both guides feature your favorite Visa guys in the Desert, including Brent Musburger, Michael Lombardi, Matt Human, Dave Toula. We are are on a we all, let me say that again.

We all are on a chart there with all of our pro football picks. Even I managed to show up on this one with a late. Wait. Wait's the ass Lombardi on the air, Wait what was the deadline? He's like, it was today, Gil, So I just put it in today, So I'm gonna get it there late, I'm told. But we all have our picks division by division, in the NFL Conferences, super Bowl, and then individual awards as well.

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at Visa dot com. Slash bet football for the plan that works for you, whether it's the all access, whether it's the pro alone, whether it's the pro and college football betting guides together, all of that at visa dot com slash bet football. This is some umpires real quick. Uh this year umpires the most reliable over umpires, the most reliable under umpires. This for pre early, for totals better,

but also for side betters. And again you can get umpire assignments at sites like stat Fox, that kind of thing that you know as early as anywhere, you guess Alan Porter is a very big over before. How did you guess Todd WISHNEP number four? Look, I didn't even look at that. The reason I knew is because Antoine, this guy who sits in the fist pound. That's a

nice one, right there. Can we reach out there with us in my living room here at the South point Um Sports Book, we always talk about Alan Porter being a super over and that's how I knew that name. So Alan Porter, what you're saying is Alan Porter's strike zone is is the size of a thimble. Yeah, he's not giving you any edge strikes, so you better Yeah, you know, you better have some major movement on your pitches,

all right. But if these names come up now, we don't have borchered on the show to sort of compare with historical analysis. He was unable to make it this morning. But your best over umpires this year anywhere? Anyway? Tom Woodring six out of seven games that he's been behind right there place. Why does that guy only have seven behind the home But it's just how assignments when the other guys have like nineteen, that's just how they're used

and their their assignments. Nobody explain that to me if they're I don't know the umpires, how they work their schedule, A very simple todd Some guys shift between Triple A and the major leagues, just like players. Yes, so top wood Ring is a guy who didn't know there was of vampires. Yeah, there are guys who will get more assignments and then some people get more home plate assign exactly, But did you know they pull up umpires from Triple actually did? Well? Look at you guys, Okay, I learned

something today. Anyway, Continuing, Top would Ring six of seven behind home plate. I've gone over Jeff Kellogg ten of thirteen when he's been calling balls and strikes have gone over John Bacon. He's the very non posher strikes on yeah, I don't know if we include John Bacon that was that was a mats of ball, hit it out of the park. Uh, three or four games. There's only four games sample size, and we're not gonna read it to

John Bacon. But there's your Alan Porter fourteen and nineteen have gone over when he's gonna calling balls and strikes. And Alfonso Marquez sixteen of twenty two have gone over when he has been behind hope late. Now these you know, again, narrative or predictive. Here's the thing when we have board and we're able to really determine a lot of these guys consistent with their careers, uh, in terms of of

going over under. Here the most reliable under guys Nick Marley six of eight behind home plate unders, Kirwin Danley twelve of sixteen under, Joe West sixteen twenty three under, Andy Fletcher thirteen of nineteen under, and Jansen Visconti fifteen of twenty two have gone under when he has called balls. These are guys that just want to get back to

the buffet. If you, if you, if you watch baseball like I do, yeah, a lot, you will notice that there are guys that call strikes six to seven inches off the plate, and you know they're just thinking, let's get back to the buffet and back to the hotel. So let me give you a case in point of that. You see the ninth inning of the Cubs game last night. Anybody who's watching this is nodding right now and going, oh my god. Um. I want to say it was one man on and nobody out, but don't hold any

of that. The Cubs were down two to the Reds. They ended up losing by two to the Reds right up the Phillies. I'm sorry. Yeah, they play the Reds before them, So they ended up losing by two, four to two. They were down four to two in the ninth and was it Tony Kemp that was up? And it was a three to pitch which was not only high, but was super outside Kemp, Like Kemp would have had to look like a little leaguer if to make contact with it, Like we just had to like wildly swing

at it. Strike three. Called talk about wanting to just get out of there. It's unbelievable. I mean, I'm I'm joking, but I'm not really joking. We talked about with the Dodgers, Padres game a couple of weeks ago, and I was on the dodge, like I could have completely changed the game. Um just like it called strikes that were just way out of the strikes and you're like, come on, we need some sort of robotics here for this. It's ridiculous.

And then the other one is where there they stand like all the way to one side of the catcher, and then the catcher puts his glove over on that side and then he reaches across while it's still fully in the strike zone and it's you could see it's in the box because a lot of these games have the box and will bisect the box. It's so down, it's not down the middle, but it's on it's in clearly, it's not even on the edge, and they miss it.

And because it's so far on the other side, and not only do you miss it, do you wonder if they're like, well, I'm not going to give him credit for that because the target wasn't there too. Oh, there's so many of those things in baseball, and this this reminds when I was reading an article yesterday UM online

on Twitter. They had some article where they rated the home broadcasting guys from each team, and you know, like, and I hear a lot of them because I'm the retard out there or I'm the mentally challenged person out there, whose second whose second best to Kype? And uh, they were way up there there, they were way up And

I get the box. So I listened to all the different games that I want to hear, And of course I thought the Mets would be way up there because I of Keith her nandez Ron Darling and Gary Cohne. Of course they were like in the top three or something. But I knew right off off the bat if this was gonna be a good ratings, the Pirates would be way down because I can't even listen to the Pirates it's so bored interesting. Nine they were twenty nine. The

Tigers guys gotten a scuffle last year. Two they fought each other, I mean the new one with with with with Kirk Gibson sounding like he's high on pot um is not you have you ever heard Kirk Gibson, by the way, a game, it's us of Todd Wishing's not representative of numbers game. He's like, and uh, it's like real real, Are you sure that it's just disinteresting product. I'm sure that's a that's a good point as Michigan do they have recreational weed yet? Well, well we'll google that. Yes, yes,

we'll google that. We'll come back, we'll resume with the first five and the first dating is on the Derivative Show, and we'll get to today's slate. We'll do it all on a numbers game right here at Visa. Welcome back to Numbers Game with Jill Alexander. We left that a conversation hanging about the that list of the best local announced baseball this radio or television television, Yeah TV, And I guessed correctly that San Francisco gizs Dwayne Kuiper and

Mike Cruco, who are just an institution? There are top five? You said, Um, who were some of the others in the top five? San Diego interesting? The Mets. Um, the Yankees were not? Huh, Yankees were not? It was San Diego, the Mets, Oakland A's oh what Glenn Kuiper and Ray Fasse and um, Dallas Braden right, is any part of it?

He's also he might be part of But I and I also guest off air, I guessed dead last, and I feel bad that I guessed it because I don't think they should be dead last, but I I knew that they would be somewhere, and that's the Nationals with f p F S GIL. I have the actual list in front of me. Todd was slightly off on the actual list a little bit, but not terribly. Nats were last.

That's got a got a hardy one point five is to make the point of I knew the Pirates were going to be terrible and they came into Well, the Pirates do this weird thing where they rotate five guys between radio and television, so there's never consistency, so they don't announced the game. It's just like they're dead air. If the can I just say, Pearls knows his announcing team. Oh my god, Parls, we're talking off air. Parls can give you like inside like the third string and answer

on this. It's amazing. Shout out five of six sports Gary Thorne and uh in Baltimore? Is he in top five? I'm pulling it up. Number one. I was surprised at the and their and their good crew or still in company in San Diego were number one, which I was surprised that they're very good. By the way. Apparently Jim Cott is doing twins games now, which I did not

realize the Yankee games for a while. Number one is uh number one San Diego, number two, San Francisco, number three, the Mets, number four, Erry Thorne and Company in Baltimore. Number five was the Dodgers. The Dodgers were number The Dodgers were five, the Angels are six. I was surprised I wasn't mentioned because here at the South Point, you were not mentioned. Yeah, I'll tell you why you do

games here. I do when I have a team and one of my guys is about to go yard, you know, I'm like, it's way back picks everybody Tennis picks in people you get to I want to tell you what one of the guys, this guy digs out there, he goes, you know, Todd, I couldn't watch a single baseball game, you know, if I was just by myself, he goes, I come here and I watched him with you. You make it exciting, really people. Sure there's also people annoyed as well, So people who want the wish and have

play by play. You come to the South Point, you get I'm sure there's half people annoyed half people enjoying you might want to probably enjoying one's maybe not. Uh, maybe I'm sure something coming back more derivatives. Welcome back to a numbers game with kill Alexander, We get sex, we get tweets. Chris Felika, friend of show, friend of network, was piling on when we're going through all those old Orioles in the eighties, he goes, Dim Stoddard, Yes, that's

another great one. Uh. And then my buddy E who knows of such things, he points out, I think there's a great point about the baseball announcers and that the San Diego Padres broadcast team ended up number one on the favorites list. Uh. He points out Mark Grant and Don Rcillo, he said, are awesome, and they gotta be because the team sucks so bad. Same with the Baltimore Orials. I mean, think about all the space you've got to fill when your team, especially when your team is awful.

So it's also the case for years when the Mets weren't good. That's why that crew also is highly rated, able to fill space. Well, they're so good, Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling, and they're just so good. And Gary Cohen. They're really really I actually like listening to them, you know, just regular here at MLB teams will will resume the Q three derivatives here. So now we're talking first five innings. So again, what if this is just narrative? What if

this is predictive? What can we actually use here to help ourselves make bets moving forward? First five innings? Major League Baseball? Now, from team rankings, are friends over there, Tom Federico and company. Over their team rankings, they called together the first five innings runs per game. So, just from just a raw data standpoint, what's the team that plates the most runs in the first five innings? Pictures

that they face, aside, lineups, aside, what's the club? What are the clubs that played the most runs in the first five innings? Minnesota Twins three point five one runs

per first five innings. They are the most prolific offensive team just on that average runs plated in the first five No surprise the Yankees or second, No surprises, Red Sox Astros, Maybe the Diamondbacks are a little bit of a surprise, but those are your top five largely, no surprises there, Twinkies, obviously, with all those home runs this year, trying to get the three d home runs for God's sakes,

not a surprise. Now the lowest is interesting to me because I always say this, this is so representative of folks who you know, you make a first five inning bet on these teams, and it's the experience. It's not only that you've got your money tied up, it's the experience of having to live through these teams in the first five. They are so anemic offensively that you know, like it's just torture watching these teams. And the Miami Marlins this, I mean, this is a great, uh sort

of poop poo platter of the worst teams. And these are these largely why these teams are just not among baseball's elite. To be kind, Miami Marlins, they played less than two runs, fewer than two runs per first five one point nine three. You're betting on the Marlins, You're living through that. That's not fun. Giants not much better, Tigers not much better two point one one, two point one. That is the the five hundred magical team of the decade.

San Francisco Giants three World Series titles. By the way, is it an even here? But are these stats from this year or from this is this year, this is just this year. That's the first five runs per game. Follow along. I was making a joke because you're sorry, Giant, I'm sorry, it's right, I get it. Sorry. Chicago White Ox fourth worst. Now the Cardinals. You've made this point before. The Cardinals, who right now are ensconced as the number

two wild card team in the National League. And they and they only score two point Todd's expert analysis right there? Could you read that they can't hit the ball two point and here it is corroborated by the numbers by the day to two point three one runs per first five and yet they're in the playoffs if it starts today, you know. And by the way, and by the way, there one game behind the Cubs in the NL Central one because it's a stinker division. It is a stinker division.

By the way, Cubs are no good, um pretty good, Todd. Since they stink. That seems to be a prerequisite for the Cardinals winning a World Series, is that in the middle of August the team stinks. Look at oh six and two thousand eleven. I don't think this team is winning the World Series. I have an off the grid. Mattawa Mono bet with my buddy, who's the greatest sports better of all my friends and everybody anybody I know, And we get in these sports arguments and we always

settle it by just making a bet. And we ever talked about like that that that ends the art, you know, So it's like, okay, well, if you feel so strongly about it, smart man, let's make a bet. So we have a bet Cubs to make the playoffs, Cubs to not make the playoffs, and you're on the not make the playoffs. I got him at plus two hundred, to which he responded, well, I got a great line because the draft Kings number is the Cubs to make the playoffs,

and like minus five seventy six. I'm like, well, if you think that line is any good, you're ridiculous, right. So we have that going the rest of the year. So we're very involved in how the Cubs do on a night tonight basis. By the way, what was interesting about that. I don't mean to us the story, but when you were talking about the first five I'm sure there's some math people out there who can tell us

are runs evenly distributed in all innings? Now I don't have never done the data this, but I can just tell you from watching all the games, the fifth inning seems to have a lot of runs. There's no way there's equal distribution. I would love if somebody could like twitter out what the what the distribution of runs per inning is in a regular ball game. I'm going to guess at the fifth inning is a big runs inning. You can twitter it out or you can tweet it out,

whichever you want to do. I call it twittering because tweeting what is what is what does Jimmy Vicar call it? What does he call it twexting or something? He has some he made up word by the way, yet to see Jimmy says he's been back. Well, you just have you're you're just not here at the right time. That's all it is. I know. So Now, opponents, if you're curious, opponents, what do team's opponents played per first five runs? Because

you want to see the defensive side as well. The Dodgers are the best at muting runs in the first five innings. They're they're the best at run prevention first five inninges Dodgers. Basically, they're starting pitching staff turns every opponent into the Miami Marlins first five. That's really good. They only give up one point nine runs per first five. The Rays, Reds, Gnats, and Astros. And there's no surprises there, right, because well, the Rays might be to some people because

the Rays use an opener a lot. So the Rays give them credit, right, give them credit for how they manipulate their starting staff. The opener strategy works for them. And there's the nu miracle representation of that with the Dodgers, Reds, Nationals, and Astros. Very intuitive because you're like, oh, yeah, those are the embarrassment of riches starting staffs. All those teams, including the Reds who have now recently acquired Trevor Bauer,

but they've got Luis Castillo Sonny Gray as well. But the Gnats with Strasburg and Scherzer and Corbin, the Astros with good Lord everybody right, Verlander, cole on down the line cranky now. And then there's the Dodgers, who, again we said Hanenru might be the best picture on their team this year. But would you take them even, you know,

second in a playoff rotation? I don't know that you would with that team with Walker Bueler and Clayton kershel on the same staff, by the way, most allowed first five, the Orioles on the Orioles Small network three point six too. That's who they That's how much they give up first five. Mariners, Rockies, Rockies play at core, so that's always on a curve. Pirates and Rangers all of them give up more than three runs per first five, with the Orioles given up

three point six to leading the way. Leading in quotes. Just think how bad the Rockies aren't hitting when they're not in the first on the other chart, like they should be in the top five just because they get to play in that stupid stadium, but they're not. That just shows you how bad they are on the road. And you know what I mean, that's kind of interesting.

Joe Osborne puts together the first five records for these teams, so we've sort of buried the headline in the first five because those are just the raw numbers in terms of output and and input if you will, I can use that um but Joe Osbourne puts together first five. I usually rely on side sports, my boys over there on side Sports for these but they're far too busy

this year to be calling these stats together. So Joe Osmoorne with the best first five records and the best first five and the worst first five money, So we'll do money first Oakland and as the most profitable first five teams. So basically what we did for the full game at the top of the show. This is the best first five. So if you bet the A's first five, blindly favorite underdog and remember their ties involved in first five, but when you put it all in the mix, the

A's are the best first five team in baseball for betters. Yankees, Twins, Raised, Diamondbacks. A lot of those teams showed up on the most runs produced or or the least runs UH allowed in the first five in the raw data we just talked about, so as Yankees that you remember when we were talking about the most profitable teams, they were up like eighteen hundred and nine, et cetera. But you know when you go in the first five, you're only up nine. Is

that because ties? Well there's there's ties involved, right, But what's another reason, Mr Man, the straddle is wider? Oh very good, look at you looks at the big Thanks for inviting me on your show. Least at least profitable teams in the first five. The Orioles knows no, excuse me the other way around. The Toronto blue Jays, who, by the way, are on fire. And I keep saying this every day. If you had the Blue Jays under you,

already counting your money not so fast. The worst team the first five, but they're the worst money team when it comes to first five. The Tigers who are always on these right, the Giants who we talked about moments ago, the Rockies again they play, of course, and the Orioles. But the Blue Jays are worst first five. And that is intuitive, right because name their name, their ace, right,

name their second best picture, name their pictures right. If you would, if you took anybody in this casino right now that's out here in the south morning behind us, and you're like, can you name a Toronto Blue Jays starting picture? How what do you think the the hit percentage on that would be? Uh of people in the casino don't be way less than sports book, And the sports book wouldn't even, I promise you wouldn't be. Do

we have the raw records of those teams? By the way, Jeff, I I can, I will, I will read those out right now. The Dodgers have the best record in the first five, followed by the Atlanta Braves who show up at number two, the Yankees at three, the twin Is at four, and Tampa at number five. The money was what was interesting, and the money the money was more surprising.

This is just the bad teams. Detroit or excuse me, the Orioles have the worst one, then Detroit, then Toronto, then the San Francisco Giants actually come up at number four, and then it is the Rockies. Yeah again, the Rockies always relictive purposes. Really, what what this whole exercise tells

us is I was just about to get to this. Yeah, okay, so Nona, I was gonna say that if you can pick out some teams, like every year in Major League Baseball, there's a couple of teams, maybe one or two teams that late in the season starts playing really much better than they've played the whole year. Some people say, maybe it'll be Toronto because they started playing well. But if you remember last year, Tampa Bay Rays were not a

good team up until about August. Then they won every single game for the rest of the year, practically except one when they were up like eight to two in the ninth the blue the league. So what qualifies here that what's your take away from this season's exercise on this? I would say you have to be looking at teams maybe like the Marlins. They kind of hang around and

they try every game. I'm not sure if it's the Marlins, but I'm saying in the next week or two, you might get a sense that there's teams that are playing way above what they've played the rest of the year. I mean, I'm gonna tell you what I've taken away from this, and we'll get to the first dating is that's the last thing we have to go, and then

we'll talk about today's late. But what I've taken away from this year's exercise is exactly what I predicted before last season and what I said this season the whole way about betting baseball. The fact that the Dodgers and the Yankees are the most profitable teams we already talked about, like with all that minus money just says everything about baseball. It's like, Wow, even when you have to lay those numbers,

they're still value on them. And even think that they will continue and I think they will continue to be because they're starting to jerk them up to like ridiculous. Well yeah there, listen there exactly. So now you have to ask, okay, well will this continue in the in the last four games? Well, I think they will in the short term, like because they're not gonna sit anybody

short term yet. But think about this, if they were average one fifty six or according to Mike Palm one fifty whatever, you guys should say, you guys should fight one. Let's say they were average one. Okay, going forward, I think if you take the next forty games, they're not going to gonna be much higher, and therefore they could be not they might not be profitable. As what you're saying, we might have missed the boat. We might have missed

the boat. There's no question we might have missed the boat. Which is why I keep saying, you know, you have to determine what's predictable what's not. I guess what I'm saying is what what does all of that tell us thus far? I don't think there's a lot of gems this year because of that dynamic. Though to actually cull like usually with some of the years, we're like, oh my god, Tampa Bay like I never would have thought that that great first five, like last year that was

the big thing. They kept coming up as the best first five team Q one, Q two, Q three, and it was like, oh, this is very interesting about the Rays. This opener thing and by the way, I know it was last year they before this opener thing is very interesting and we could take like legit it predictive information like this is sustainable because of what they're doing specifically. But this year, I think you're right about what you're

saying about those teams with the big numbers. Maybe we've missed the boat, but up until this point, that's been the story. Like baseball has been so haves and have nots that there really isn't a gem in there, you know that we can take out of there. We're like, oh, you know, I'm just randomly select a team. Oh that's interesting. I wouldn't have expected them to be that good or

that bad to this point. To this point, but that's the exercide, right, we gotta figure out from this data is or anything, and and I don't think there's a lot And how how often do you see teams that run away to eight and forty one? Records continue to play that well into September very often. I remember, do you remember the Dodger team a couple of years ago that had a run of like sixty and five or some some ridiculous number. Last year, the Dodgers had an

unbelievable winnings. Yeah, massive winning stretch, and then they actually it flipped for like two three weeks after that, they were they were terrible at right and I and I remember very often the team that's way way out in front in September stops really trying and they start playing a bunch of guys and then all of a sudden. So I don't think it's gonna be predictive going for it. It would be very interesting to see what the numbers

are for the last forty game. I mean, that's why I think it's a it's a fun exercise to go through because it is uh. It does stimulate the brain, and it does require us to sort of look at baseball through a different prison and say, Okay, well that's great.

Is there anything we can cull from it? I would argue this year probably less than most years, and there's no sense in thinking that any of that will manifest because of the dynamics of what you're saying, Like, there's some teams like the Yankees and the Dodgers are so far out in front, will they start to rest players sooner than normal? Uh? They can kind of coast into a hundred win seasons at this point, though even if they go five hundred, they're a hundred win teams. And

here's actionable information. People are going to forget in September that there is a baseball season still going, no question, because they're gonna all be on the football all day long. It's going to be football wall to wall. And who doesn't love football? I love football. We love football. They're gonna forget and and the lines in baseball are gonna get a little softer. I noticed this every year in September. People are not on the tip top sharp razor point

of their game because everyone moves over the football. And by the way for again, for the home run race, a lot of people like, oh, Cody Bellinger is gonna sit because therefore he's not gonna sit by the way middle relief. What did I say yesterday? Home run against middle relief? Yesterday? Bengo bengot nine three way tie thirty nine. Right now, it's a sprint trout. Bellinger yell at all at thirty nine, Alonso at thirty eight, and so Lair and a Kunya Jr. The sneaky freaking brothers sneaking in

from the rear. They're like making some noise now too. Everybody's gotten just tons of Homer is a juice ball. I don't know if you know that juice ball. We'll come back. We'll do the first inning numbers on Q three on a on a numbers game right here at Visa. Welcome back to First Game with Jill Alexander. Visa's Pro Football Betting Guide ready for download on Friday. Just a friendly reminder, purchase sixty page digital magazine before Friday. You

get it for that's after Friday. Or get the College Football Betting Guide along with the Pro Guide for just twenty five dollars. Got all that, plus you can consider an all access of all access subscription that is all that information Visa dot com slash bet Football. That for any plan that works for you, including a free trial that's Visa dot Com slash bet Football. I mentioned we get tweets and text on the show. I just want to point out again for those who listen to the show.

You know, I'm always referencing three way text between me, Chris Fleakin, our buddy E and Uh. They comment on on everything that goes on, and I love him for it and us sometimes it's phenomenal, my buddy e. Uh he says this, Todd, he's piling on me, saying, of course we're on distribution is and even he says, of course we're distribution is an even third inning should be the least bottom of order. That's a good point. That was my point. I didn't I said I know what

it was. I said fifth might be the most. I wasn't sure. I didn't say I know which one. I knew it wasn't gonna be even. Don't get defensive. All right, let's wrap up with the first innings here. First innings. These are proprietary status. You won't hear these anywhere else. Um, I actually track what pictures are doing in the first innings of games. Don't read into that, don't. I'm not suggesting that's how I make my first inning bets, which

we've become famous for on this show. But just to let you know, UH, this year in Major League Baseball, minimum forty five plate appearances faced. Do it through the prism of on base average allowed. The worst starting pitcher in baseball this year is actually Jeremy Helickson, who you will not see listed anytime soon. Dylan, Uh, Dylan, what

are we talking about now here? These are Let let me actually up this from forty five to fifty because I'm getting some names of guys that aren't even like you know, in major league lineups right now are major league rosters. They're all like downs for the year. Yeah, the first first inning first, just for sure, those are bet first innings and are interested in this kind of thing. So minimum fifty plate appearances face this is better. The worst in terms of opponents on base average Michael Waka

four oh nine opposing on base percentage first innings. Kyle Freeland second worst four oh seven allowed, Drew Palmerant's third four oh four allowed, Jose Rainya, Aaron Brooks raw stripling, Jordan Zimmerman, Trevor Williams ross strippling is a surprise on that list. You're the best in the first inning. These are the guys that they show up. Yanni Cheering knows the best first inning pitcher in all of baseball as

far this year one seventy five on base. Think about in the first inning, you're going against the best hitters of the other team, yes, you all. So this kind of means something A little bit it does, and it's just sort of, you know, a shout to again the Tampa Bay Rays for the whole opener thing. There's Janni cheering os. So everything the Rays are doing, they are they are smart, they're doing it for a reason. It's

working out. Walker Bueller next best first innings. By the way, Clayton Kershaw has always been on this list for years now. The Dodgers replace him with Walker Bueller for first inning performance only a two oh eight on bass average, A loud Chris Paddock to eleven on its loud first innings Frankie Mantaz, Domingo Herman, John means your boy, John means of the oriole age. He's regressing fast. Kyle Gibbson, Griffin Canning,

Jack Flaherty, Michael Pineda, Jacob Degram. Right, by the way, that's kind of a surprising list because you don't see all the huge names on there. Yeah, no, that's true some of them, but you know some of them are like I actually cut it off right at de Gram, who is eleven, but then it's right after him where you see some of the big names de Gram, Velasquez, let's forget him for a second, ru Verlander, Strassburg. So

they're they're they're just not top ten. Flaherty doesn't surprise me because I think he's been having a real under the radar great Him and Sonny Gray are my two under the radar great. I mean people follow it, no, but if you if you ask people out there who's been really outstanding in shape but don't know about Jack Flaherty would not come up in there on their list, right, Jack Flatty has been really good. He's been really good. Alright.

I hope you enjoyed Q three and one Dababa Ba dabag Book one Dababada Papa