Beating The Book: 2019 Q2 MLB Derivative Stats Show

gives us license to do it. We'll talk MLB betting stats through the perspective of money line wagers, as if you're betting these teams each every day bizarro exercise, but teaches us stuff about each and every one of these ball clubs from a betting standpoint money line, home road splits,

run line, a sort of de facto power ranking. I should say not to mention starting pitching stats, umpire over under who's reliable, who's not from that perspective, and of course that it gets a little more proprietary first five inning stats as well as first inning pitching performance. You won't find that anywhere else but right here on the podcast mlb Q two Derivatives, right here on the Beating

of the Book podcast. Enjoy this is a numbers game with Gil Alexander broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and Information Networks. On those gidiots who believe in analytics, analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers, and Gil has every number you need to cash your tickets now live from the Visan Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is a numbers game.

Good morning to you on a Monday morning here at Serious XM Channel two oh forts where sports betting analytics live actionable sports betting information. Gil Alexander. Um, So here's the deal today on the show, you happen to land on the one day, Kelly, the one day you're here, you happen to land on our Q two Derivatives MLB show, So Major League Baseball Derivative betting stats show, which we do every quarter here Q one, Q two, Q three. So one team has rounded the uh the midway bend.

So we took that as an opportunity to do the show. The Mariners are past the halfway more arc here of the MLB season. They got a bit of a head start on folks, and so today on the show, if you are a baseball nerd uh man, is this nirvana for you? By the way, if you are not, I'll just try to say silly things and maybe entertain you. Anyway, right, which not so yeah, this was you know Covery baseball. It covered the Bartles years ago. I've moved on from

baseball since covering the Barley. The covering of the Barlos will help you kill your interest in baseball. Do you do you have a cold? Kelly? You sound like you've been under the bat a cold right now? Okay? All right, well feel better. Trying to get you some medication during the show, and we'll see what happens to you by the end of the show. All right. So what that means today is not only will we have we'll have little interludes. Paul Spore from fan Graphs will show up.

We'll talk to him about baseball in general, beyond betting how he feels about We'll do it through abetting prism division odds with what's going on in each divisions Paul Sport from fan Graphs. We will also have Jason Weingarten at the end of the show to talk with us about his bets of the day, which sometimes and most often becomes first inning bets. So we will have that. But in the in the meantime, what we'll do is we'll do money line money line splits, run line those

are all very widely available stats. Then we'll sort of narrow it down and do different categories. Starting pitching, we'll talk about umpires. Will bring in Mark Borcher, who has historical umpire stats force primarily for totals betters, but also for sides. Going to know which umpires tend to Uh, I don't know. Let's say call balls and strikes in their own unique kinds of ways. And I put together these graphics. It's sure it tells you the stats, that's

for sure. Yeah. And then we'll do five inning stats first five because people love betting first five. So we'll talk about the teams that have formed the best first fives and the worst. And then proprietary first inning stats that you will not find anywhere else. We have them here on a numbers game, and we'll talk about the pictures that perform the best and the worst in first innings to help inform your first inning bets. Now, here's the caveat to all of this, and it should be stated,

and I'll stay it. I'll state it again at some point during the show. Much of this is going to just be narrative. The whole point of this show is to give you predictive information. Some of it's gonna be narrative. Someone's gonna be predictive. It's up to you, obviously, is the better to determine which you feel is more predictive than not. But a lot of it is just, oh, well, this has happened. Is it sustainable? And that's sort of

the question that's the conundrum here. If it was that easy, right, if we're just giving stats, was that easy projecting moving forward, then everybody would be a rich person, Benny. But it's always fascinating to look at and to determine what could continue and what is just sort of a mirage that has no ability to be sustained. Let us begin, sir, by the way major League Baseball this weekend. We were just talking with Mitch and Paul E. Moan wents Ago and this is why it's fun to have Sporer on

the show today as well. But it has just been unbelievable the things that have gone on in Major League Baseball, specifically like you remember, have to go back for like just yesterday, we're talking about how the Padres against the Pirates, Padres first team in the last eight five seasons to blow multiple three run leads after the eighth uh, they were up seven to four over the Pirates. Pirates got three to tip up to seven seven Padres put three

more up on the board. Pirates tied that eventually wanted eleven to ten. Unbelievable. Then there's the Dodgers three straight games where rookie hit a walk off home run. That's never happened in the history of Major League Baseball. By the way, the Rockies bullpen talked about the volatility of baseball. Rockies bullpen eight and the third innings in their series against the Dodgers gave up eight earned runs, four homers, including those three walk offs. So predicting baseball on a

day to day base is hard enough. We'll try to give some perspective on it with all the stats that we go through today, beginning with let us start Kelly with let's do the broadest one, which is money line records for Major League Baseball teams, and these are widely available. Covers dot com a great source to find money line uh,

sort of the exercises of Bizarro one. Let's say you showed up the beginning of a Major League baseball season and you decided to bet every each one of these teams as a favorite laying the money to win a unit, or as a dog laying the unit to win. Uh. And if you perform that Bizarro exercise, here are the teams that are hooking you up the best in terms of in terms of the return on investment, it is

the Minnesota Twins. The Minnesota Twins here fifty and twenty seven in your standings, they would have netted you eight team point five units. Again the Bizarro exercise of having bet them every single day thus far this year. The reason they were often priced very very generously early in the season before folks caught on, before the market caught

on to how good this baseball team actually is. Dodgers, no surprise, second sixteen points six five units roughly in your pockets of you bet them every day thus far this season, and keep mine with the Dodgers their favorites and sometimes big time favorites on given days. So for them to have that kind of unit hall for you just tells you how good of a baseball team this is.

And as I was mentioning with Mitch and Pauli moments ago in our crossover, there fifty four and twenty five, the Dodgers, we are getting into we're not quite in Seattle Mariners two thousand, one sixteen game territory, but their paces righted about one hundred and ten wins right now.

That's how good the Dodgers are. Rangers, if you had this before the season started, good for you, Rangers number three, number three team and sent in terms of who has been best for better's fifteen points seven units in pockets for bizarro Rangers betters, that is, Rangers betters who would have bet the Rangers every single game thus far this season. By the way, if you're betting the Rangers every game, or any team any game over every single game, perhaps

you're doing something a little little nuts. Maybe that's not how you want to bet things, but you get it for the exercise's sake. Braves and White Sox close out the top five in terms of the best money line teams four betters in baseball thus far this year. And again the White Sox, even though they're thirty six and thirty nine, they are dogs so often and such generous dogs if you will, a lot of bang for your buck that even at thirty six and thirty nine they

would have netted you seven point eight five units. Thus, far this year. By the way, the converse of that, because we'll get to the splits momentarily, but the converse. The worst R O I teams in all of baseball. No surprises here your Baltimore Orioles. And when I say you're, I mean mine grew up on the Orioles twenty two

and fifty six. They would have hemorrhaged you nineteen point five five units roughly if you had bet the Orioles every single day as far this year, and by the way, if you've done that, you really are doing something wrong. Royal Second fifteen point three units. Uh Down, Blue Jays fourteen point seven five units. Blue Jays just offensively so Hamstrong, Nationals, and Red Sox. Some couple of these teams, not like the others, Nationals and Red Sox, would have cost you

the most money. And in the Red Sox case, it's the fact that they are favorites and such big time favorites so often that even at forty two and thirty seven, they would have cost you the fifth most amount of units in baseball thus far this season as we round the halfway bend, just over fourteen units. If you had bet the Red Sox blindly thus far this season, by the way, in terms of home road splits, Kelly, this

is all this is often interesting to people. If you look at home split the single two best teams in baseball, just betting them at home, it's not even close. It's the Dodgers and the Rangers. The Dodgers and the Rangers who are second and third overall when it comes to home performance. They are leaps and bounds, not just leaps, Kelley, leaps and bounds better than any other team at home. The Dodgers eighteen point five units to the positive at home,

the Rangers eighteen point one units to the positive. If you had bet them every single time thus far this season at home. Now, if you were paying attention moments ago and actually mentioned that their overall numbers were slightly below their home numbers, so yes, this is the case, then that if the Dodgers and Rangers are eighteen point five and eighteen point one units respectively, as blind bedders would have them at home, they are slightly in the negative.

Both of those teams on the road, by the way, the Dodgers and Rangers represent in terms of home road splits. Therefore, the widest gap of any teams in baseball in terms of home road splits. By the way, the team that came in third that might be of interest to some folks is of all teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who was roughly, yeah, roughly of cost you nine point nine units at home, but would have you up nine point nine units on the road. So the Diamondbacks, who are middle about twelve

overall money line, they're middling. They like the Dodgers and Rangers, have huge home road splits. It's just that the Diamondbacks splits are reverse splits. And doesn't everybody know in Phoenix, in the Greater Phoenix area, they're sort of nodding their heads like, yeah, not a great home experience that it has not been for the diamond Backs thus far this year. Um so those are the widest gaps between home road splits. By the way, if you're wondering who's the worst at home, uh,

no surprise. The worst team at home would be the Baltimore Orioles. Seventeen of their nineteen point five overall units lost have been at home at Camden Yards. Not good, not good at all for the Orioles, who of us who are down seventeen units in terms of home games,

by the way. Second worst at home the Boston Red Sox at Fenway fourteen point five units down at Fenway Park in terms of their home performance road performance, again we're talking money line Minnesota Twins, who are number one overall. Most of their units have been gained on the road. Of their eighteen point five units gained overall, twelve point

three of those have been on the road. There twenty six and fourteen on the road this year again for for twelve point three good for twelve point three units for Bizarro Bettors in terms of their road performance. That is by far the best actually know by far. But number two of all teams in baseball was the aforementioned Arizona Diamondbacks, who had that wide split wide split rather between home and road. Diamondbacks up nine point five years,

nine point nine five units. Excuse me, onto the road, by the way, and he guesses who the third best road team is on the money Line, Kelly, Oh god, you have mentioned them already on this show. I've met you to the Marlins there, I was gonna say, I think I really mentioned one teams. So the Marlins nine point four or five units for betters on the road.

How about that pretty incredible? You know, the two things that that I take away when we look at these r o I numbers both like just overall and hope and away you know you mentioned it a little bit of both. But as far as the best r OY teams, you know, the Rangers to be forty two and thirty six and to be that strong at home is impressive. And that maybe even weirder is the Dodgers, who are

so good losing you buddy when they go on the road. Uh. You know that when we look at the bottom r o Y teams, Uh, you know, like you you mentioned before, you the Red Sox being heavily favorite, maybe not a shocker to see them there, But the Orioles are that bad because they've been that bad from the beginning of the season. So it's almost tough to end up at the top of that list when you're getting plus two one are plus two fifty every day? And again for better?

Is the question once again is okay, all this is fun and interesting to look at. How much of this is predictive moving forward? Can the Rangers still be that good at home? Uh? Can the Dodgers still be that middling on the road. As Kelly just pointed out, by the way, the worst road teams in terms of the splits, because we didn't get to those yet, the worst road team in all of baseball in terms of money line split would be and he guesses, Kelly, I gave you.

If you give, if I gave you five guesses, you might not come up with us. And maybe I'll just tell you it's the Mets. Mets are down ten point eight units on the road, closely followed by the Kansas City Royals who are down nine point three five units on the road. So nothing really to see there. I'm not not so sure there's anything to read into that

in terms of run line. Now, this, of course is what I like to call a sort of power um number for betting teams, because on the run line, again, if you're winning as a favorite, winning by more than a run and a half, and if you're losing, if you're good, sometimes you get within that run and a half and you lose by just one run. So this will correlate a lot with one run records. But in terms of who's the best run line team in baseball

this year? So again, Bizarro exercise you're betting this team on the run line, whether as a favorite or as a dog, each and every single game thus far this year. The number one run line team UH in terms of record and in terms of your cash the Rangers, the aforementioned Texas Rangers, who are forty seven and thirty one on the run line thus far this year, good for

fifteen point one units. So remember, the Rangers are fifteen points seven units up on the money line if you bet them every time this year, if you've bet them on the run line, you'd be up fifteen point one units. Rangers thus far this year first half of the season, just a few games shy of that. For them specifically, they are a better's dream. Diamondbacks have the second best record,

as is shown on the screen here. But let me give you in terms of the money haull second best team in terms of money in your pocket on the run line, it's actually the New York Yankees, which fall fourth on the screen right there. They would have up twelve point four five units. What are the Rangers and the Yankees have in common. A whole bunch of offense. A whole bunch of offense that even when they're pitching

is middling, they will hit you into oblivion. And so the Yankees number two to the Rangers in terms of the best teams on the run line, sort of a de facto power ranking, if you will. In terms of the worst, well worst than the record actually not worstan a record. The Orioles of this are the worst record, but they're the second worst in terms of money lost on the run line. They would have cost you fifteen

point six five units. By the way, third worst on the run line would be the Toronto Blue Jays also pictured there. They would have cost you fourteen point nine units on run lines this year Red Sox also pictured fourth worst, fourteen point five five. But you know who would actually have cost you the most money on the run line, not pictured in the worst five records, which gives you an idea of how a mnemic their offense is.

It is the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco Giants thirty six and forty on the run line, but they'd have cost you sixteen point nine five units in terms of money, uh, in terms of run line bets. So that has a lot to do with the fact that the Giants aren't gonna hit very well. Um and the fact that sometimes their market price is just not uh commensurate, if you will, with what the results have been. So all very interesting in terms of the numbers. Now again, what of this

is predicted. Can the Rangers keep this going? I don't know. With that hitting, maybe they can, Maybe they can't. With that ballpark, specifically at home, maybe they can. So remember that's the thing with the Rangers. Really really good money line, really really good run line, and really good specifically in terms of the money line at home Texas Rangers. Very interesting. Will come back, We'll do starting pitchers, and we'll do umpires.

We'll bringing Mark Borchered talk about his historical umpire records to sort of draw conclusions on whether this one half season performance really has legs in terms of the umpires career performances over time. Then we'll bring in Pulsemore We'll

talk to him about Major League Baseball beyond betting. Jason Weinart with first inning Picks, will do it all on the mlb Q two derivative show right here on a Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers Game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas back on the numbers game here at visa United States Women's World Cup team on

the field. By the way, Chris Feleik of the Bear from mespn's College Game Day chiming in on those stats that we just went over, and I think correctly so Kelly, you were alluding to this as well, uh, saying that's a little surprising the worst teams and units of the Orioles and Jays, just because there's such huge dogs all the time that a win usually negates a couple of losses, which is exactly right, But yet they're so bad at baseball Oriels in particular Blue Jay's offense and by the way,

Blue Jays on base percentage flirting with some of the worst on base percentages of all time. Uh. And it's

tough way betting experience. I talk sometimes about this. Imagine if you step back a second and you think about this stuff, and you're like, all right, well, what is the experience like betting on a team like the Blue Jays, like backing that offense and just the misery of just not cashing in, um, not getting even ducks on the pond if you will to have a chance to score runs it's just so it's such a tough betting experience

here in the dog days of summer. Let's continue because we want to do starting pitchers here real quick, and we'll get to umpires umpires of of note for totals betters, also side betters, but particularly totals betters. Let's see the

starting pitchers real quick here, Kelly, Lucas Giolito. In terms of the Bizarro exercise, if you had bet every single Lucas Giolito start thus far this year, and what a far cry, what a difference a year makes, because last year, every time Gelto was on the hill, I say this all the time, I would list his stats and they were, if not the worst in all of baseball per fan Graphs, they were right in the top two worst, and I would have to apologize to the Giolito family for reciting

them every day. We'll look at that. Lucas Giolito is the single best pitcher starting pitcher for betters thus far this year. The White Sox eleven and three in Gelto starts, you'd be up ten point five five units just having bet Gelto starts blindly, by the way we faded him last time. If you recall on the show Brandon Woodroff of the Milwaukee Brewers. Brewers are thirteen and three in his starts, he would have netted you nine point one units. Again,

these courtesy of covers. These are widely available. Andrew Kashner of the Orioles, we're just talking about the Orioles. Well, if you're an Orioles pitcher and the Orioles happened to go nine and six when you're on the hill, that's just what Chris was talking about, you'd be up eight point nine units. That's how easy it is for you to accumulate units if in fact the Orioles performed for you. And Andrew Kashner has had a lot of run sport on the hill for the Orioles. Eight point nine units

and Kashner starts. We talk about what is sustainable and what is unsustainable. Let me just throw that into the unsustainable category. Is pretty crazy to think about, where when you're looking at everybody else we have on this graphic, Cleland Ker shot with all of it. Did one castor die did six? And he's made you more buddy. Yeah, And simply because of that odds one of the one of these things is not like the other. That's right, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Odo Rezi closing out the top five

Kershaw Dodgers eleven and one in his starts. Remember he had that long streak where you didn't have any losses or no Dodgers games resulted in losses with him on the hill, eleven and one, eight point six units to the positive for you on Kershaw betting him blindly. Odor Reesy for the Twinkies twins are eleven and four, and Odo Reese starts, you'd be up seven point six units roughly in his starts. By the way, the worst the

worst r O I pitchers in all of baseball. Uh, David Hess of the of the Orioles, this is more oriole esque. You know there was a thing called the Oriole way when I was a kid. Uh. He's fifth worst. By the way. The Orioles are two and eleven. In his starts, you'd be down seven point eight units. Um. Jorge Lopez one in nine, Jorge Lopez one in nine in terms of starts for the Kansas City Royals thus far this year, you'd be down eight point two units.

Scherzer is third worst, and this again has everything to do with how big of a favorite he is every time National's only six and ten with him on the hill, so you'd be down ten point nine units. Jacob Degram second worst, you'd be down twelve point to five units, and to Gram starts because the Mets are only five

and eleven in his starts. And then no surprise again like with Serzer, Chris Sale is going to be such a prohibitive favorite in so many games, sometimes over three dollar favorites that when he loses, man does its sting red SOX six and ten in his starts. I'm surprised you'd only be down twelve point six five units. Quite frankly in sest we saw you know saw before we were going over the t borrow I graph ry stuff. Yeah. Absolutely, Let's bring in Mark Borcher to talk umpires. Mark from

Clear Data Sports. Good morning to you, sir, Good morning Gale. Mark. You're back on the show, just like a hand in the glove. Appreciate you doing this, man, I'll sure notice. No I tell you what it was worth it to hear you say a SPAN's I love about you the voice of sports betting. You know that. Thank you, Mark, I appreciate it. By the way, Mark. Before we get into the umpires real quick, what is Clear Data Sports doing.

You're you're emerging. What's happening? Oh, it's it's wonderful gilt we are emerging with Let me just say they're they're smarter people than myself and it's going to allow us as a handicapping team to produce this wonderful sports betting tools and applications. I'm really excited about it because there's a lot of stuff that's that's a lot of time that I'm gonna be able to save myself first off, and then the people that follow us secondly gonna be able to interact with a lot of our data. So

very excited about it. You okay, well, congratulations to you on that. We bring you in real quick for good five minutes with Mark Portra because we want to talk about umpires and I wanna say what their performance has been in terms of over unders thus far this year, and you can tell us if there's anything to it historically. So let's talk about the most reliable over umpires thus far this year. Alan Porter at the top of that list. Alan Porter, again, you've got to check your umpire assignments.

You can find umpire assignments at sites at sites rather like stat cast, Alan Porter when he's behind home plate calling balls and strikes, thus far this year, games have gone over twelve out of fourteen times, twelve out of fourteen times eighty five point seven percent at the time when he's been behind home plate. UH. Tom would ring not as much of a sample size, only four out of five have gone over. But then there's Mike Winners, ten out of thirteen have gone over when he's called

balls and strikes. Jeffrey Kellogg nine out of twelve have gone over. UM, And let's add to this list that's that's shown both Carlos Torres and Chad Whitson ten at of fourteen have gone over the total games that they have umped behind home plate. Sean Barber, Marvin Hudson ten out of fifteen, Trip Gibson the third, nine out of thirteen. So a whole bunch in terms of reliably over thus

far this year. But any of those names, do you have any historical numbers on any of those guys that lead us to believe that this is not just some aberration with them? Mark Yes, I do UM. Jeff kell is number five and over. UH he's got, he's over his quick year, which is a drive. The r A based on strikeout percentage, walk percentage and groundball percentage is

six greater than the average umpire. So just to just to kind of put it into context, there's ninety umpires that have a decent sample size, and so so Kellogg would be six uh from a from a run suppression standpoint and the fifth and from a run explosion standpoint, I guess to put it. So, so he is a reliably over umpires. What you're saying beyond just this season exactly deal And this is a four year sample size and it's weighted towards the most recent year. That the

technical part of the other rating very interesting. And with these guys, you never know, like is it you know, the fact that their strike zone is the is the size of a thimble. You know, like their strike zone is so small that it's just that much more difficult for pictures to get strikes and put themselves in favorable counts in favorable positions during a baseball game, that much

more advantageous four hitters. So Jeffrey Kellogg the name that leaps off the board, not just in terms of this year's reliable over humps, but it extends to Mark's four year sample size as well. What about the reverse here? Mark, In terms of the biggest under umpires thus far this year, we haven't pictured Andy Fletcher. Nine out of eleven have gone under. With Andy Fletcher calling balls and strikes. Again, this is the opposite of what we were just talking about.

And maybe the strike zone is super duper wide here. Joe West, Oh Cowboy. Joe West eleven of fourteen under thus far this year. Rob Drake ten of thirteen thus far this year under Nick Marley pictured pictured, But that's also a small sample size. Jeff Jerry meals eleven out of fifteen thus far this year when he's called balls and strikes have gone under the total, and I'll add Lance Barksdale nine out of thirteen have gone under. Then

a trio will close it out with that. Pat Holberg, Kerwin Danley, and Eric Cooper eight out of twelve under the total when they've called balls and strikes this year. Any familiar names there, Mark, Eric Cooper. Eric Cooper is number five and run suppression to strike out rate is eight percent better than average, and that pretty much gives him his uh his rating and The other guy that I always have to bring up and and I remember you brought this up on on the Q one was

Mike Esterbrook. He's the third Yes, he's the third UH leader in run suppression from a from an umpire standpoint. And I was watching the game when when he was behind the plane, and I just he called a pitch a strike and it was it was a foot outside of the zone, and I just I just had your voice, the voice of sports betting in the back of my mind saying, yeah, that guy, that guy's calling calling he's

calling ball strikes a lot. Basically, did you happen to see Angel hernana is behind home plate last night, by the way, and the Angels Cardinals game? Neither I did. I watched some of that game, Gil, and I thought, this guy, he wants to be Leslie Nielsen from The Naked Gun. I mean, that's that's what the guys go in life. There is I think, rather than be a professional. Neither team had any idea what he was doing, like,

and it was so bad. His balls and strikes were so inconsistent and so bad that it was beyond arguing. You know, when someone is so is so poor at the performance you can't even muster up the energy or the emotion. Are you just stare at him. You stare at the strikes and it was incredible last night. By the way, Esterbrook seven out of fourteen, he's seven and seven over and unders thus far this year. But what you're saying is historically he's very much of an under umpire.

So again we talked about what is narrative and what is what is sustainable In the case of a guy like Esterbrook. The seven and seven might actually throw you off some some actual good knowledge that Mark is giving us. So just a review that real quick. Jeffrey Kellogg is a name you want to focus on when he shows up an assignments behind home played as an over umpire and to um Eric Koper and Mike Esterbrook two names that historically with Cooper also also doing it this year

already in the first half as well. Those are historically reliable under umpires. Mark borcher from Clear Data Sports you can follow him on Twitter at clear Data Sports. Thank you, my friend. I appreciate that. My pleasure. Jil nice talking with you, Mark borcherd with the historical umpires that those are huge for totals. Betters coming back, we'll take a

break from the stats. We'll talk to Paul Sport about how he feels about the season right now midway through the division races, and we'll get a little DFS from him on a short card on the major league schedule seven games, but maybe he has some thoughts for your DFS place today coming back on a Numbers game at Visa. Down back to a Numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Laws, Vegas.

In between segments here at Visa, we run a in case you missed Visa last week sort of montage if you will, from UH shows in the previous week, that one with a Dave farre in a mall, Kelly, they have like a tail of the table too. I don't know if I didn't know those two had beef, by the way, the slight trash talk a day when the ball was off, so we decided to make a graphic

floor when a ball came back against each other. I'm saying with Mitch and PAULI earlier in our cross talk this morning that if I ever complained to you about a bad beat again, Kelly, please stop me. Mid sentence because last night I had the over in the Angels Cardinals Sunday night baseball game. Did you see this last night? I saw bits a piece of it early, I did not see the edge. It was two to nothing headed into the ninth. The total you could have gotten an

eight and a half, but it closed it nine. It was two to nothing headed into the ninth, and the Angels when all nuts on the Cardinals bullpen. They were dinking them to death. I think there was finally an extra base hitting this game. It was of all people, Justin Bower had the face of the first extra base hitting this game. Anyway, the Angels played in four runs in the top of the ninth to make it six to nothing. By the way they left the bases j Coost,

so it could have been more. So if you were a totals better and you're like, oh man, that would have been a miracle. Oh my goodness if they had, if they had had one more swing in the bat, we would have had the over. But they left the bases loaded, so sixty nothing. Oh well, we gave it a run. Yeah, I'm looking at the box wor right now, and you know, I know, doing the show Saturday or Sunday yesterday, I bet across America with a ball. He had mentioned that. Uh, I forget exactly what gave it

was from Saturday where he had the over. I think it was eight and a half and two of the team scored eight runs I think in the first dating or for the first two, and he had to sweat it out to the last dating where they played at a ninth. Well, so this one last night, so as I said, six to nothing, they left the bases loaded, and even if you had some inkling of a miracle, you were like, oh, well that was fun to even play it out that much, to even have a shot at it, to get the to get the winning run

to the plate for your total. So then the bottom of the ninth shows up and it's quickly two outs, nobody on. It's still six to nothing, and you're not even thinking, you're not even thinking about what's going on. And then Martinez, out of nowhere hits a solo shot. You're like, oh, why out so there won't be a shoutout. It's six to one, and then Molina singles and batter

walks and Colton Wong. Then Jack's a two R B two RB I double and it's six to three and you're like, oh my god, you've gotta be kidding me. And then Dexter Fowler with this bloop excuse me single into right field and Wong scores from second and over Betters go crazy and under Betters, I just want to hug all of you. That is one of the worst beats ever. Um in a season full of just horrible

beats every night, it seems like a crazy weekend overall. Yeah, a weekend that had, you know, three consecutive walk offs from Dodgers rookies, which has never happened again. There was also the amazing thing in Pittsburgh where the Padres gave up to three run leads after the eighth that hasn't happened in eighty five seasons. And then the Yankees can't stop hitting home runs twenty six straight games, which is

a franchise record. We bring in Paul's borer here at the way marker, just right around the halfway mark of the Major League Baseball season. Paul from Fan Grass and the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. Great time to have you here. Good morning to you, PAULI morning Gale. How's it going going very well? Did you see that game last night. I did. I saw the end of it. I saw the last few innings there and it was absolutely insane. And um, I didn't have anything on it,

but that I thought about. I thought about the handies chapters, the ones who got lucky and the ones who got absolutely snake bitten by it. Just it's just incredible. What a what a uh? Every night in baseball there's some ridiculous story that might have been the worst of all of them. The Mariners have rounded the halfway mark of the season, so it gave us a license to do a Q two derivative show today. I'm curious with you, though about these division races, how you feel about all

of them? And let's start in within the American League East, where the Yankees, Uh Yankees. Right now, PAULI, they have a four and a half game lead over the Raise, eight games up on the Red Sox. If you look at the betting odds, the Yankees are at minus to sixty this per William Hill. The Rays plus three fifty, the Red Sox plus five hundred. We won't even mention the Blue Jays and Orioles numbers, which are you just threw up a number just to throw one up. But

how do you feel about the Yankees in this division? They, I would assume, in your opinion, or the team to beat here. And could this even increase from four and a half? Yeah, I mean it certainly could. Obviously, they've done what they've done with just an immeasurable number of injuries, and now they're starting to get guys back, like insane guys you know, uh, Jim Carlos, Stanton, Aaron Judge coming back.

When you get pieces like that, of course they're going to be aggressive at the break or at the deadline as well. So yeah, I can definitely see it growing. You know, they can always fall on hard times and and maybe have the Rays catch them, but it's a

long shot. Right now. I really got to think that they're the class of that division and probably the class of the A L because of what they were able to do, and now they're gonna have their whole team likely, right, And of course the injuries could continue to strike, but they've had some of the worst injury luck in a half season that I've ever seen, and they've they've maintained, not only maintained, they've excelled in spite of it. Yeah,

you've got a favor the Yankees right now. I don't know how you could really convince yourself that the Rais or Red Sox are our favorites there. For sure, you might want to bet on them, but you couldn't convince yourself that you're doing anything but taking a long shot. Well, they're they're not fair, right, The Yankees are minus to sixty. The question becomes, are the Rays at plus three fifty or the Red Sox at five to one? Are they worth a bet down four and a half and eight, respectively.

And what I'm getting from that is not exactly you would not make those bets. The Raises only one I might consider. I really like what their squad has. But with the Red Sox, you know, I was kind of worried about, and I think we even talked about it on the show in in the spring. Their bullpen, you know, they didn't do anything with it, and it's really not any good at this point. And they got a few pieces of that are working the right way, but that

you have to have debt. We we've talked about bullpen. You know, it's great to have one or two guys, uh these days, but you really need four or five or six that you can rely on, and of course we know the ups and downs with the rotation. Chris tals back on tract. David Price has been great, but Porcello and I rod a Ardo Rodriguez at the back end, they're not really steady. And the offense is is still

great though that'd be what you'd be banking on. But no, I'd rather go raise between the two if I were going to take If I'm going to take a bet in the A l E. What's interesting about the Red Sox And sometimes when the team performs sort of middling like this after winning a World Series, you're like, oh, they're lurking beneath, they're sneaking. There's nothing about this team

that feels like they're lurking in any way. Like I just don't see a surge from them exactly because you know, the offenses is, you know, clicking on on not every cylinder, but but it's going quite well. While Mookie Bets maybe isn't at the peak that you would expect quote unquote

only an eight fifty two ops. Guys like Raphael Davers and Zander Bogarts have picked up the slack and so even if even if you would assume that maybe in bets and J. D. Martinez would maybe surged forward, you'd probably have to bake down, you know, bring down Bogard's endeavors a little bit to even it out. Uh, Andrew man Attende has been someone who has been kind of slow this year. But again, I just don't I'm with you. I can't really map out a scenario or they super

surge forward. Alright, Ale Central talking to Paul Sport from Fangraphs at sport spo r e Er on Twitter. Also the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. Twins eight game lead now eight game lead over the Cleveland Indians, which is big, but uh, you know, just a little uncomfortable with the Twins coming back down to earth a little bit. Twins minus nine thousand to win the Vision. You don't want to make that bet. But how about the Indians that

tend to one? Does that interest you at all? With a very easy schedule coming up in the next thirty days, however, still no Clubber, still no Clevinger, still no Carrasco. So brutal to have Clevinger come off the d come off the I l and sprain his ankle right away now, this one shouldn't be too bad, but it is kind

of brutal to have that happen. You mentioned Cluber's out he got hit in the forum with the pitch and broke it, and Carrasco is dealing with a total, you know, off field type of deal with the blood issue, and so yeah, I mean it is. It isn't terrible at eight, and you mentioned the easy schedule. That division is so bad. Of course the Twins are gonna be able to beat up on that division as well. I really don't see them.

I really don't see Cleveland making a massive surge. They might make it close where they're within three or four by seasons, then make it look like more of a race. But I picked Minnesota at the beginning. I'm gonna stick with that one. I like what they're doing and they're

gonna add as well. Whereas Cleveland, I think I'd be surprised if they add because if they if they weren't gonna do anything at free agency, what makes what makes us think they're going to trade away if they can't spend just money, What makes us think they're gonna take away trade assets and spend money. That's the thing with these Like, we talked about this with season win totals before the season, who's going to be in a sell

off at the deadline. Some of these teams that are that are in it still could be selling off of the deadline. Namely, let's take the a L West Houston with a tantalizing le narrow six and a half game lead in the American League West. You look up at the standings, You're like, wow, that's not nearly as wide as it once was. Rangers, who are six and a half back, are sevent team to one courtesy of William

Hill to win the division. Both the A's and the Angels, who are eight and ten games back respectively, they're thirty to one. Would you take a flyer on any of those three teams? Boy, I don't think so. I mean, the Astros made it look and made it look close recently because they were on a big losing streak before yesterday, and you know, so it looks a lot closer than it is because of when we're looking at it. Both of those clubs, the Rangers and the A's. Rangers specifically

have been really impressive this year. Folks were expecting the A's to do something and they found back. You're a slow start, and even the Angels are kind of lurking. They just don't have enough pitching. Uh No, I can't really convince myself to go up against that Houston juggernaut because it's not it's not even playing at peak performance. In my opinion, that is a team I could see

surging and their forty nine and thirty. So when you're a team that that's that good that you could feasibly see taking a leap in the second half, I don't want to mess with anything there between the Rangers, A's or or of course the Angels, which are the super long shot. I'm with you, I wouldn't touch any of them. I wouldn't do it with you your money. Let's go to the National League East Atlanta Braves now with a six and a half game lead similarly in the East

over the Phillies, who have just been getting destroyed. They've lost seven in a row. Braves, with the six and a half game lead over the Phills, eight and a half over the Gnats, nine over the Mets, Braves are minus one fifty to win this division. Over at William Hill. The Phillies are very shortly priced at plus one fifty. That's twelve to one met seventeen to one. Anything with the with the Gnats that that excites you there or

still just you just can't bring yourself to do it. Gil, we we got we gotta break up with the Mats. We've really been on them for years. We got we gotta dump them. This is a toxic relationship that we're in. You know, they've got a core that that makes that you can really you can really trick yourself your handicappers out there. You're gonna be late night staring at san grabs and Baseball reference, really making a case for yourselves

before you go put down some money. I'd be careful because again, once you get past the the offensive core and and the awesome Scherzer Strassburg Corbin one two three punch, it's it's light and again it comes down to the bullpen, which is awful for them. I would say that it's almost a miracle that they're even three games under right

now with the bullpen that they've had. I mean, they were chasing down some historical relevance for some for being for being awful with their bullpen early on, and it has it has regrets back a little bit towards the middle there. But who do you like in the bullpen besides Sean Doolittle. The thing of it is, even if they make moves, even if they if they gut the farm system or train a big piece and get two guys, the two bullpen guys really flip everything here. I don't

think so. I mean, you got Doolittle and that's really it. And the nerve wracking thing is as as the best guy that they have, he's got a little bit of a health profile that isn't isn't the most favorable either. So no, I can't really carve out the scenario for the Gnats. Of course, we will break up with them and then this will be the year that they actually do it. But I I'd be really really surprised if they were able to leap frog. And one of the things to be mindful of too is not only um,

you know, they kind of have three teams. I know that Mets aren't ahead of them right now, but they could be. You know, in two days, they could be right ahead of them. So they're really contending with two three teams at any moment. Not that the Mets are an organization to be worried. So to be worried about right now with the way they're turmoils going, but now I can't see it. And with the braves of Phillies

on short numbers, I'm not touching them. The Phillies are only one fifties there with the six and a half game deficit. No, you, no way, I'll burn my money, you know, forget that. That's that makes no sense to me. So and at least is a total layoff, all right, Well, the n L Central is the most interesting though, right, five and a half total games separating the Cubs at the top from both the Pirates and the Reds at

the bottom. And yet here are your division numbers. Cubs plus one twenty, Brewers a half game back plus one sixty, Cardinals two games back plus four hundred four to one, and then the Reds and the Pirates five and a half back, eighteen to one on the Reds, thirty to one on the Pirates. A bite here, perhaps I can get multiple bites here, to be quite honest, I mean, even the Brewers, it's not a great number at plus one sixty, but it's such a it's such a good team.

I really liked them. I think they're going to remain aggressive to and make moves at the dead line. Uh, the Reds have really intrigued me. This was actually a team that I was interested in coming into the season, thinking that they could make some noise, and they got off to just an atrocious start, and I was like, you know, maybe maybe I was a year earlier, just

dead wrong on that. They went eleven and sixteen, or or um twelve and seventeen if you count their their too March games as well for March April, and it was just looking really bad. Talk about pitching there's was just horrific, and they're hitting was actually remarkably in two. They didn't really have anything going right their way. Now everything's starting to click and we're really seeing what this Red team is made of, if this offense can can keep it going and you know, get up to a

level where they belong. Right now, they still only have two guys with an OPS plus over one hundred that are regular starter. Strick Diatrict doesn't it doesn't quite make the grade to be a a full time starter, or else they'd have three because he kind of splits time. He doesn't start against lefties. But I like this Cincinnati team. You look at their Pythagoran when what just looks at runs four and again, and they're right there with the Cubs.

They're they're a half game behind them. So I think the Reds as far as my long shot, that's the team I'm all the ones we've talked about so far in the first five divisions. I'd like to go with them for my long shot. And then, like I said, the Brewers as well for more of a obvious pet but a team that I definitely like. I like it Brewers and Reds at thirty to one. We'll take a

bite on both of those. Paul Sport from Fan Graphs right here on the Numbers game at Visa now live from the Visa Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of the numbers game. Right here at Visa, we're sports Betting Analytics, live, actionable sports betting information series x M Channel two four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App, Fobo TV, Sling TV, and Game Plus, as well throughout Canada, New York City and

New Jersey's Gil Alexander. Let's continue with our mlb Q two derivative stat shows. So again this happens once every quarter. We do it We've done on the Poe Cast for years, both Beating the Book and Betting Door before that, where every quarter of the baseball season we look at betting stats and hope to learn something. Again, much of it

is narrative, but some of it predictive. Some can help you with your baseball bets moving forward, and these will become more proprietary as we go along here now, UH, in the first hour, we did very widely available stats covers dot Com a great source for those stats, and we talked about umpire assignments again, specifically with the umpire segment stat Fox among the sites that have umpire assignments, so you know who's going to be behind home plate.

And again if you missed it, we'll put it up in podcast form to give you the names that we mentioned that are reliable over and under umps. Let's talk first five innings. Now. For years I relied on on Side Sports Great Sports app for these UH. They are so into there, they are so busy with some UH deals that they're making that they were not able to

provide them for me this time. However, Joe Osmore shout out to Joe Osborne who had some five inning stats for us, and I went ahead, listen to me, Kelly, I did some stuff this weekend. I actually did some Morgan updated these through the weekend. How about that. Wow, Yeah, somebody got off their button did some work. So these are the best and worst first five inning teams in all baseball game Joe Osmore providing them. I just updated

them through the weekend. But in terms of the actual records, Twins best first five team in all of baseball for the season started. If I had said to you, hey, who do you think it's gonna be the best first five team in all Baseball's gonna say with the Twins have been on your radar, and I finds I'm a little surprise to see the Dodgers out there right now. Whether you've lost buddy for you on the road, you

would think they'd be a little little closer to even there. Well, So Twins five and ten, these are just the records in first five games. Again, remember these could be pushes. That's why we have ties here and ten for the Twins. Dodgers right behind them fort and eleven. Dodgers record actually better, but the amount of money they made for you. Actually just just a little lower than that because of what Kelly's talking about. Dodgers are favorites a lot and so

and they lose, it tends to hurt more. Athletics, Yankees, Rangers round at the top five. That's a boy. The Dodgers and eleven top five or excuse me, a first five, but their second best in terms of the record, in terms of the money one. So if we went to the actual raw stats from Joe Osborne, what we learn is that in with those records, the Twins roughly would have netted you if you bet them blindly first five any game this year, Roughly you're about nine units up

roughly abount nine units up with the Dodgers. You're up around six units because it has to be significantly less Dodgers then, right, but Athletics might be around what the Dodgers are or maybe by way off uh no, right exactly right there there, right on their heels exactly. Athletics are excuse me, right around five point seven units somewhere in that territory. So it's um, you know again bizarro exercise. You wouldn't you wouldn't do this in real life. Bet

them maybe you would. I don't know, maybe some of you would, but you probably shouldn't bet these every single day are you're probably doing something wrong. But if you had, that's where these shake out. In terms of the bottom five, uh worst first five inning teams thus far this year, it is the San Francisco Giants that have the worst record whatsoever. Forty two and thirteen and first five just Giants.

I mean, here's the thing though, if you're a Giants fan and I said you look, before the decade started, I said, here's the deal. You're gonna win three World Series in the next five years. You're going to suck at baseball after that. Do you take that deal? You take it every time? Anybody that's right. Blue Jays, God, Blue Jay's come up on this list so many times.

They're bad at first five to fourteen, Indians, third worst, three and fifteen, Tigers and Padres running up the top the worst five if you will, by the way, looking at with the money, if you had bet the Giants, so now, remember when we talked the top, if you had bet the Twins, you'd be up nine units and you're like a nine units big deal. Every one of those games. Well, if you had bet the Giants, you'd

be down twenty units first five. That is not good. Yeah, you do not want Yeah, the the bad are much worse than the good are good. In other words, Blue Jays, you'd be down about nineteen point five units, and then it drops a little. Indians, you'd still be down thirteen point three five units, Tigers roughly thirteen units in the red padres ten point seven units. That's if you bet them again, blindly, each and every first five thus far

this year. And so you know, you look at those both good and bad, and you think yourself, who would I have predicted before the season? Well, Dodgers, with those pitchers, you probably would have predicted they're gonna have a good record no matter what. Um. On the other hand, you look at the Indians. The Indians who you you figured, oh,

it's gonna be Clubber, and it's gonna be Carrasco. You've got Trevor Bauer going well, they've had the injuries, they've had the you know, the blood issue with Carrasco, Clevinger hasn't been there. So the Indians at fifteen hemorrhaging first fives just hasn't gone their way. Uh. Four betters us far this year. By the way, our friends at team Rankings all always provide for us in terms of just the raw data, what's the run production and run prevention

in the first five innings. The Minnesota Twins um they no surprise based on their record there, it would not be surprising to know that they have scored the most runs on average per per first five thus far this year. So the Twins are playing three point five three runs per first five thus far this year. So that's a great betting experience if you can rely on them and to get three and a half runs every first five, you'll take that every time. By the way, Texas right

behind them three point three eight. They've shown up on a lot of positive boards thus far in the show Yankees third three point one four runs per first five. You know, they just with the trends were starting to see within this show. Rangers are kind of all those good boards. Everyone has been on a lot of the bad ones. You know, that's exactly right. You see a

lot of trends. And by the way, the Giants who we just mentioned are horrific bottom five in terms of first five, they only score they score the fewest runs per first five this year one point nine run excuse me, one point nine one runs per first five thus far this year versus Minnesota's what five point three three point five? Yeah, um,

but one point nine ones. By by the way, the Marlins, just to give you some comparison, score one point nine three runs per first five, just just ahead of the Giants, Detroit two point zero one, San Diego two point zero six, and Toronto, who again flirting with one of the worst on base percentages of any team ever just two point one five runs per first five thus far this year.

So just think again, I get back to take yourself or remove yourself from the betting experience, from the from the betting raw numbers momentarily and just take yourself into the betting experience. If you're betting the Giants first five this year, not only are you hemorrhaging twenty units if you bet them blindly, and you shouldn't be, but they only score they score less than two runs per first five. How would you like to live through that every night?

Just absolutely just I don't know how you're betting on that team anyway? About it right now? In terms of run prevention first five, like, who's the best the Dodgers, who end up with the second best with with the best record but the second most money. In terms of first five, no surprise that they give up the fewest runs first five. They only give up one point seven two.

So they're basically facing a worse version of the Giants offense first five, or or I shouldn't say they're facing they are making it that they're facing a worse offense than the Giants first five only one point seven two runs allowed first five thus far this year. The Tampa Bay Ray's second best in run prevention first five just one point eight three runs allowed first five since Senata two point zero one two point zero one runs allowed first five thus far this year. That plays into what

Spora was talking about. They're only five and a half games back the Reds in the National League Central. Their run differential is right on the heels of the first place Cubs, and much of that has to do with this great starting pitching performance here and I'll have to look it up, but they're you know, they're over under record. The Unders are incredible. I think I think they're the best team in the baseball right now to the under.

I mean, they're just they're preventing, but they're not scoring either. That would be the issue. Yes, Seattle, by the way, the worst team in terms of giving up runs first five. The Mariners have given up three point six runs per first five this year. So we talked about how the Dodgers are basically making the opposing offenses worse than the Giants. The Mariners are making opposing offenses better than the Twins

first five. Baltimore right behind them, giving up three point five one runs per first five thus far this year. The Chai Socks and Giants right behind them three point two nine and three point two four respectively. By the way, the Blue Jays rounding out the top five three point one nine, so that Giants and Blue Jays basically show up add in every category we've discussed today, just terrible, whether raw records, raw numbers, or betting numbers. Giants and

Blue Jays just the worst of the worst. Noteworthy that the Marlins are not in that category, typically because the Marlins are getting so much bang for their buck when they win that they tend to get relieved of this horrific um horrific uh sort of notes in terms of being at the bottom of all of these lists, and it might also look a little different with them if we were doing this a few weeks ago. That's right, we just happened to do it. That's a good point.

We just happened to be doing it right when the first team is rounding the bend here at the halfway mark, that's specifically being the Mariners. So those are your first five inning stats, both to the good and to the bad. Again, what what of this can we can we feel its sustainable? I think the Dodgers is absolutely sustainable. I don't think

there's any question about that. I think the Yankees and the Rangers are Rangers because of that offense and because of that ballpark, and the Giants and Blue Jays of the bad. I mean, could you could make the case the Blue Jays might get better, But I'm not so sure. You're not a believer of the Twins. I just I think the Twins are good. I just don't think they can sustain what they were doing. And we've already seen

some aggression on that already. Um, I think they'll still be good, But I'm just saying with those offenses, the Yankees and the Rangers, and conversely the Giants and Blue Jays that to those, to me, seem more sustainable than ever. Yeah, I agree with you. It's it's it doesn't seem like the Giants and blue Jays are gonna be going far from where they're at on this list. Interesting to look at again. Thanks to Joe Osborne filling in for our on side sports guys on the first five just updated

through the weekend to the very moment. We'll come back and we will give first inning stats. Now, these are completely proprietary to this show. You will not hear or find these anywhere else. There's something that I call through the years, a lot of us want to bet first innings. We have been betting first innings, yes and no, on this show for years and on the podcast for years.

I know everybody's just sort of discovering it this year, but we of uh, we've sort of been tracking this for years, and uh, I want to get into the pictures that show up the best in the first innings thus far this year and the pictures that show up

worst in the first frame. And then later on the show, Jason wine Garten himself hopefully with some first inning bets, we'll see what bets he wants to make on today's slate coming up QT derivatives MLB Right here on the Numbers game at Visa down Back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. Board tweets at beating the book.

Always appreciate the feedback. Uh Godfather seven oh two. As Nick Bogdanovitch says, to bet baseball, you need to be sick and hate yourself. As Nick Bogdanovitch also says, to bet baseball you need whiskey and a revolver. There's no question, true words that've never been spoken. And I was on the right side of it last No, not the right side, but the winning side of it last night. And I believe me, I wanted to hug the under betters for

that Angels Cardinal Sunday night game. This from jet Ware three. Gil loved the Q two derivative show. Oh We're not done yet jet with the Giants first five so off the mark already twenty units. What's your thoughts on a daily fade? Well, I don't I don't advocate anything auto fade or auto back, but it's always something to consider, of course, based on price. You gotta look at it

like you do anything. But yeah, I mean the thing about this show today is there have definitely been consistent themes with teams to the point where where it's been really really consistent. I don't remember it ever quite being that consistent across the board on a Q two, but it certainly was today. Uh, this is BH buying is your Is your buddy e active on Twitter posting info for dumbasses like myself? Or does he remain in the shadows unlike one of your shows guests who is like,

look at me. I don't know what he's referring to. He's taking a shot at something. He's taking a shot at one of somebody else that I have. I don't know. I don't know who that is. Uh five times, rich Gil, what's your best guests that it would take to get your buddy to do a guest segment on your show? Slim to none, He will not come on the show, do your off. I I've heard it from from Afar

and what I've produced. Listen, let me tell you. Let me sell somebody not only the most successful sports better I know, um, but makes me about twenty times better at my job because he's he's always thinking of things that I do not think of it necessarily, it's good to surround yourself with people like that, which especially when you're doing this job. Yeah, I mean no, I think anybody who thinks they you know, that they can only you know, being a vacuum and and think they could

cover every ground. No, No, I think our just our text exchanges three ways. By the way, with Chris Felik on text that it just makes you that much more, your antennas are raised that much more. But no, he will not come on the show. I get it. Let me get it. Maybe one day, remember our final day ever on this show. Maybe for three you know, it's the end of Gil he's on today. All right, let's conclude the Q two derivatives with first inning stats. Now we've been betting these on this show and on the

podcast for many many years. Let me start with and this is really I get to what if this is narrative? What of this is actually predictive? So this from our buddies over at team rankings again, Tom Federico and company over there at team rankings. These are just the percentage first inning scoring percentages. So this is the percentage of time that a team has actually played it at least a run in first innings thus far this year, and again talk about the themes that we're talking about earlier.

The Texas Rangers have played in a run thirty eight point four six percent of the time and first innings thus far this year. Now you say to yourself, maybe that means they'll played a run thirty eight point four or six percent of the time moving forward, And I would say to you, nothing really predictive about them, Just curious, just interesting. This stuff is very interesting because I feel like it almost produces more questions, you know, like will you throw that out that I want to know? Okay,

so is that where does that rake historically? You know what I mean? Well, that's a very good point. It ranks pretty highestorically. But here's you know, second places Tampa Bay their thirty seven point one eight percent. Now do you remember about a month and a month a half ago when everybody on this network was going crazy because Tampa Bay score. There was always a run scored into

Tampa Bay first inning. And I sat here on a numbers game and I'm like, you're taking people off the scent, like there is no predictive nature to it, because you know what, no one can possibly sustain that. And sure enough the rays and first inning and you hear nobody talking about it anymore, like it never happened. So I think we we can't be prisoners of the moment on

this stuff. And so just you know, just for interest sake, for another example of that, everybody on this second network is talking about Gito, so I think there's a bet on him every time he starts on this network. Well, people have done very well betting on Julie. And I'm not I'm not saying it to to in any way to sparage anybody. I'm just saying, in the case of first innings, for those of us who have done this for years and years and years, not exactly what we're

supposed to look at. But for the purposes of this show, I just want to point out some numbers. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay both at thirty seven point one, uh playing runs in the first inning thus far this year. By the way, just to give you an idea how ridiculous it is. Guess who fourth places in terms of reliability of scoring a run in the first inning. Is this back to the Marlins again, Baltimore thirty five point nine percent of the time they score a run in the

first inning. By the way, the worst San Francisco Giants take another bow. Yeah, there's another list to put them up on. Fifteen point seven nine percent of the time. That's all fifteen, so three out of three out of every uh twenty times they score a run in the first inning. Basically, Miami Marlins second worst. Only eighteen point four two percent of the time do they score run.

Oakland Athletics two percent of the time. By the way, we could go and look at first inning score prevention and do the same exercise, but I don't want to. I don't want to take you off anymore sense, So we'll just we'll leave that to the back burner. These are proprietary stats. Now. These are starting pitchers thus far in the in the major leagues thus far this year,

minimum fifty plate appearances faced. All right, So I said A said a bar there that they had to have faced at least fifty different plate appearances of opposing batters. Who are excuse me, Kelly, who are the worst pictures thus far this year in first innings? For whatever reason? Who are the worst? If I gave you forty guesses, would you guess the worst? I could not name any of these guys I can tell you about. I think

I could name twenty pictures of baseball right now. So you're asking the wrong guy, Gil, Maybe I am uh. This gentleman was was most noteworthy this weekend for being very mouthy in the Mets locker room in the Mets clubhouse. Jason Vargas the worst. But we're talking about through the prism of of opposing on base percentage. Now in first innings, Jason Vargas is the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball first innings along with Michael Walker of the Cardinals.

The both of them tied opposing batters first innings thus far this year minimum fifty plate appearances faced. They are allowing a four twenty one on base percentage opposing batters Vargas and Waka. That's really interesting because obviously, when we talk about pictures, you're talking about you know, the first time through the lineup, you should be the most successful, right, So it's it's tough, I guess, to think that you're the worst at that in the league. It is, but

it is top of order, right, So there's that. But You're right, it's first time through, but it is top

of order. By the way, Waka giving up a three eight batting average first inning, so he's just getting he's just getting raked um Drew palmerans in terms of on base percentage, next worst for fifteen Antonio sents a tela for fourteen on base percentage for opposing batters Kyle Freeland his teammate there or one time teammate on base percentage allowed You say Cokuchi from the Mariners, the rookie right after that four hundred. By the way, you know who's

giving up a four hundred on base percentage? Tied with you say Cakuchi, Lucas gi Alito. First inning. We have found a category where Gilto is not doing well this year. The first inning is not so much. So keep that in mind with Gelato opposing batters. Four hundred on base percentage first innings for Geolto. So that's interesting to look at through that prison. Now, who have been the best

in first innings thus far this year? I mean, I would think some of the aces that that now that we're talking about that, so I don't know, I mean Kershaw, I mean, well, I guess we just said Gelto is on the other side, so maybe not. Well, you are corrected. It is primarily aces. Uh. The single greatest though, is Michael Pineda of Twin Wow. Okay, that surprises me a bit. Fifty one plate appearances by opposing batters. He's only giving up a one eighty five on base percentage for posing batters.

But then it is a sort of aces up there right. Well, no, it's Bueller, his teammate walk Buller, who I still consider the ace of the staff even though he was doing this a seven time I brought up a ball, but he said that this weekend he'd take Walker Bueller in one game over you. Oh no doubt A Mall is getting a lot of juice on this show to because

I didn't think I've mentioned it this anytime. They checking the minute from a mone Walker Bueller second best too oh four on base percentage allowed opposing batters like talking about them all on the show. Jacob Degram third, third best two oh seven on base percentage allowed opposing batters, Chris Sale to ten opposing batters on base allowed. So first innings they've been great Panada Bueller, de Graham Sale top four. Uh, Frankie Mantas, who will no longer be

with us for Adie games. He why the way, also showed up in the top ten. It should be noted, well, whatever he was taken was working out for him, at least in the first innings. UM, so that's interesting. Again, those are those are how starting pitchers have performed. Those are proprietary statue won't find those anywhere else. Who has been the best? Who has been the worst in terms of first inning performance thus far this year? Now? To

what extent should that inform your first inning bets? I have famously come on this show now for more than two years and said it's the one thing. Although I guess I said something in tennis I wasn't willing to talk abut last night this had typically been the one thing I wasn't willing to talk about. And I'm still not willing to talk about how we bet first innings. And let's just say what I've mapped out for you. Maybe not the most important thing in the equation, but

interesting none the less. Okay, but interesting Nonetheless, As I popped the mic with the all this stuff, it's very it's it's very interesting, I think, especially we're taking deep looks at it like we are today. But you're right, take take with a great assault, right, you know, don't desire you're betting around it? Well, I think, But I think when we look back on this entire show, I think the key to all of it has been And yes, we can take from the first innings, I think we

can take a nugget or two for sure. But the consistency with with with with which the Rangers and the Yankees, teams like that came up on top the Dodgers, and the consistency with which the Blue Jays and the Giants like they are just bereft of any betting. Like after you hear a show like this, can you, under any circumstance put money behind the Giant Blue Jays on any

given day? You have you have absolutely schooled the that I that will depute doing that for the rest of the season, at least for the rest of the quarter, at least for the rest of the Baseball betting is hard enough, as we've documented so many times on this show too. For you to go through the experience of betting on those teams, what are you doing? It's it is It is crazy to see how just what you talked about how many times a couple of these teams

have ended up on every single graphic with it. Think that we've talked about now. Listen, No, no one has bet baseball. I'm sure there has been some people, but I've bet baseball for for decades. I did it through predicted modeling. So listen, I understand it's all dependent on price. Value is value. I get it more than any you know,

as much as anybody. But sometimes teams are just that bad where even the prices the market's given them, you know, it's it's one of these things where we talked about the beginning of last year, the chasm between the halves and the half nots has gotten so wide that even when your model shows value on the Orioles and the blue Jays and the giants, even when there should trigger a bet, right and you're like, oh, hey, look these teams are plus two fifty, uh and I have them

at plus two hundred, Well I should make a bet on them. Yeah. I just don't know if you should just blindly bet your model anymore with some of these teams. That's the point of all this. It's like, I get it, your model says one thing but can we have a little humility with your model because these teams are just that bad it all say, you know, I mean, you know, I used to bet baseball more heavily. I've gotten away from it, one of those ballendio guys. I'm sorry, I've

got more into CFL and stuff like that. It's just tortures me a little bit. But you know, beginning of the season, I felt like I would seeing numbers that I never saw five years ago, and did consistency that we were seeing teams at plus two eighty two ninety three hundred. It suckered me into bet on other orioles a couple of times. I'm like, you know, it's the two weeks into the season, I'm getting plus three dollars, okay,

And what did they just shot? And what this show has shown at least through the first two quarters of the season, at least through the first half or take it two games that even even doing that, um, it is not a winning proposition. In fact, you will hemorrhage money. Will it be the case moving forward? Well that's for us to determine. It's just a sort of a cautionary note, if you will, from all of us here in the numbers game that visa full p s A from all of us when we talk baseball.