Beating the Book: 2019 Fantasy Football preview

It's all brought to you today by The Football Analytics Show. It's a podcast run by Ed Fang, frequent guests on the Megapod, and during the final two weeks of August he's doing the Preview Series. It's a set of ten episodes of ten minutes each that previews the season. Ten episodes of ten minutes each. I like them kind of nuggets. Both college football and fil will be covered. Of course. It's The Football Analytics Show. You can find it on

Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. Check that out. In the meantime, enjoy the Fantasy Football Special on the Beating the Book podcast and won those gidiots and believe in analytics, analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers, and Gil has every number you need to cash your tickets now live from the Visa in studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number two of a numbers game right here in Visa. We're

sports betting analytics, live, actionable sports betting information. Serious except Channel two O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App. Perhaps you prefer Foobo TV or Sling or Game Plus throughout Canada New York City. I like, I'm just happy you're on any of them, tuning us in. We appreciate it here. Jeff Parls, producing number five is here as well. Uh, Jeff,

always a treat when we bring in this gentleman. He has his own professional football preview guide each and every offseason, and that's about thing number ten in his world these days, ladies and gentlemen, it's the great Warren Sharp. Good morning to you. Warren Hey, good morning Gil. Happy to join you again. I'm looking forward to the start of the

season and hopefully the first of many conversations I hope. So, Warren, first of all, before you even got on Airge, the last segment I just went through the Doctor David Chow portion of your preview guide, and I was reading off his thoughts on on injuries of certain players Cam Newton, Todd Gurley, Sony Michelle, and Darius Guys. Good lord man, that put me in a bad mood as a Redskin fan. Well, that coupled with you know the fact that this has been the most injured team in the NFL for the

last five years. Uh, their field is a terrible travesty. And uh they don't do a very good job of resigning players. You know, if there's plenty to uh to check into some counseling over other than that, Mrs Lincoln, what happened at the play? Um? Before we get to the strength of schedule stuff from you, I just want to cherry pi because now your preview guys. First of all, how long does it take you to put together your preview? Guy, Because it would take me from now to like mid

August to fully digest every nugget in there. What's that process? Like? Yeah, and and that's actually not a bad thing, Um to spend some time with it and dive in. So I pretty much you know, the Super Bowl is the beginning of February. I took a little bit of time off immediately thereafter, and then I start going through updating statistics, updating metrics that are going to be used for the guide comprising the entire season, updating all of the visualizations

that are in here. And that's one of the things for listeners. You can't see it. You know, it's it's full color. It's full color. Every team has seven pages devoted to metrics that are color coded and coordinated, so it's easy for you to see which players in which which areas your team is doing well in and poorly in UM And never came that it's a visualized uh

learning tool, uh from the color coding perspective at any rate. Yeah, then pretty much working on it UM from i'd say, like early March all the way through till the end of June when I publish it, and especially the last month. I mean, I'm working just as much as I am during the season when I'm consulting for some teams, and and that's pretty much until like three am every night. Uh, So I don't get a whole lot of sleep, you know.

In in the month of May. It's tough because you have to incorporate NFL draft related information, and that sometimes changes, uh, some of your perspectives on the direction of team is heading. As you know, Gil, you know, certain draft picks apart

from quarterback don't actually modify a team's win total. That addically, however, it sort of impacts your thought process on what this team is valuing and what direction they're headed, and some of the trades they might make in the draft and players they might acquire in exchange for picks, and so there's a lot of you know, the right up is in the narrative, forces a lot of theoretical dis rushing about the team's philosophies, and so you can't do any

of that until the draft has occurred. Alright, let me try to try to address a couple of dangling participles there which which we brought up. One. First of all, where do people get the preview guide? So the best place for me to get it is if you go to short Football Analysis dot com. We completely revamped that site and we've brought in on a lot of new writers or providing content. We're really excited about the website.

But you could buy the PDF version there um and the other way you can get it if you want to have the printed copy, which I makes per copy on by the way, is over at Amazon, and that's the way that you can get the full color book. Now, I will admit, even though I make a lot more money on you purchasing it from the website. Uh, I love having a printed copy to to just thumb through and have my fingertips on. But there are those people that for PDF, and so we certainly are offering that

as well. All right, the PDF option and then the hard copy, which makes warrant twenty one cents per per issue. You decide whichever one you want. And the other thing there is you threw it in. You did very casually their warrant Before we get into this, you threw it. I will be consulting for NFL teams plural. Uh. Please explain what you can about that? Well, yeah, I was. I was then approached this offseason by almost ten teams

to do consulting workforce. Some we're interested in full time roles that would have required me to, you know, jump off everything Twitter, social media, leave the this world and go live in their city and work for their team. And I got to need a lot of different people with those teams from you know, the GM to the head coach to the offense coordinated, all the all the people founded, the strength and conditioning guys, and it was

a great process. UM. Ultimately, I'm still remaining in a in a consulting role for UM a couple of different teams UH this upcoming season, and I'm super excited about doing that kind of kind of trying to implement some of the strategies that I've come up with UH and actually make them have real success on the field on Sundays and and that's always a challenge, but it's very rewarding at the same time when it works. Man, Congratulations to you Warrant. I know this is a long time coming.

It's been a it's been hard work through the years, and no one deserves it more than you do. So Mozel, top to you on that. As far as your guide is concerned, here, there's no way we can do it justice here in two segments. But let me just let me throw out a few nuggets here before we get to some strength of schedule stuff. Let me throw out a few nuggets and this is just from the very first section of your book, UM, and I'm gonna try

to aggravate a few fan bases here, Buffalo Bills. This might even be from from your first section in the book, Buffalo Bills. Uh. The Bills called the most runs on second and ten plus yards plays to go in the NFL last year, running the ball on forty percent of those play calls. Those runs produced a successful gain just twenty one percent of the time. Because of their early downplay calling, the Bills faced third and eight point three yards to go on average, the longest distance to go

in the National Football League. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Lashawn McCoy the previous year just do unbelievable things with the Bill's offense, putting him in the worst possible situations. I think that. I think I recall that as well. Is there any hope for you? Given that? And again so much what you and I talked about with Crackman through the football season is all right, You've identified the problem. Do you have any confidence in the

coaching staff figuring that out right? Well? The you know, the bigger kind of underlying steam here is that, unfortunately a lot of coaches believe that they're going to quote unquote protect their rookie quarterbacks by running the ball a lot by being conservative on early downs and will only pass the ball when we need to, which is when we're in third and long situations. Well, you know, when when you get in these second inten situations you gotta

try to pass the ball. You can't You're not gonna get enough efficiency running it, and then you're going to be stuck in situations where you're being predictable on third and long. And the key for offenses you must realize. Offensive coordinators must realize that all the chips are in your stack. Like you control so much and dictate so much, the rules are explaanted in your favor. The one thing

you can't give up is predictability towards the defense. When you do that, you're just giving them portions of your chips. And uh, you cannot be in predictable situations. So uh, voluntarily choosing to be in third and long situations because you're calling run plays on second intent is a terrible decision. They thought they were protecting Josh Allen. They actually compounded this situation and made it worse on Josh Allen because

of these third and very long situations. It can improve if they feel like Josh Allen is no longer a rookie, maybe we can put a little bit more are on his plate. So in this situation, I think it could improve a little bit for Bill's fans, But I still think at their core they're probably going to be to run oriented than I would prefer. Denver Broncos war And we're talking to Warren Sharp at Sharp Football on Twitter, Great Great Football follow through the season. I mean sometimes

Warren's rants on Twitter or epic Uh, Denver Broncos. Uh, your point, arm strength does not equate to efficient deep passing and twenty eighteen, Joe Flacco ranked thirty second of thirty three quarterbacks on deep passes. His thirty four percent completion rate was also thirty second. In seventeen, Flacco ranked thirty one thirty two quarterbacks on deep as is. His

thirty two percent completion rate was also thirty one. Flacco twenty nine thirty one quarterbacks on deep asses completion rate ranked thirty over the last three years combined of twenty seven qualifying quarterbacks with enough deep attempts, Flacco's deep passing ranks dead last in the NFL. As you point out, Joe Flacco may have a big arm but it hasn't held at all with his ability to make deep throws yet.

And by the way, the bill season win total, who we just talked about with seven, So is the Broncos right at seven um still better off with Flacco or or are we trying to say maybe not so much? Well, if you're I think John Elway. The problem with John Alway is he's so infatuated with arm strength, right Like, that's the number one that he talks about when he's looking at quarterback prospects is arm strength because he had a decent arm and so that's what he thinks makes

a great quarterback. In Joe Flacco's case, yes, he can throw the ball far, he's got a good arm, but his accuracy, his success on this passes is terrible. So what are you actually getting. You're getting a guy you can throw it far but not well. Um, I don't think that's beneficial. And the other thing that we know is that it's not about your arm. Mike Leach talked about it at slow in this pass off season. It's

about your accuracy. That's the number one. Uh. You know, there's a number of tenants that Mike Leach, professor, is that the quarterback must have an accuracy is the best one. And you can't teach accuracy. You just are accurate or you're not. You just have that kind of ability to judge depth, perception and speed and you know distance and how you got to pass the football. Joe Flacco is not that accurate. So um, I'm not saying he's a downgrade over what they've had in the past few years.

There he could be an upgrade, but he's certainly not a good quarterback just because he has arm strength. And I think you know, John Alway continues to fail and draft these big, tall guys with strong arms like brock all Swiler who have been colossal disasters and he hasn't learned his lesson. We'll see how Joe Flacco pans out for him. Man, I'm sitting here, Smiley Warren because I can't wait for football season because we you me crack

Michael Lombardi when he's on this show. We spend so much time talking about the mind boggling thing my modeling things that coaches and organizations doing the National Football League. Let me pick on just and more. The Oakland Raiders, UH soon to be in Las Vegas. Uh, there's a note here Tom Cable, and again we're just cherry picking stuff from about Warren's Pro Football Guide, his twenty nineteen Pro Football preview. Guy Tom Cable's an offensive line coach.

Here's his lines, rankings and pass protection during Tom Cable's NFL career. Again, Tom Cable with the Oakland Raiders. Now UH six Atlanta thirty one? Is that a thirty two? UH seven, Oakland seven, OAKLANDTE nine, oaklandte Oakland Silen, Seattle, Seattle, U Seattle thirty second, dead last Seattle, Seattle, Seattle seventeen, Seattle twenty five. Last year, Oakland twenty five. And it should be pointed out in many of these cases, the year prior to his arrival, the team's offensive lines and

pass protection were top ten operations in many cases. And then he took over. And yet here he is offensive line coach with the Oakland Raiders. When you see stuff like that, are you just like what's going on here? Yeah? I mean we too Many fans assume that the coaching staff understands everything, the owners are making good decisions, that if the team isn't winning, it's largely because players aren't executing.

Players are making mistakes the reality is that oftentimes the person in charge of hiring some of these people just doesn't have the numbers at their fingertips. They don't have the understanding, nor do they care. And a perfect example is Tom Cable. I mean, this guy, he's made four different stops. He's bottomed ten virtually everywhere he's been. He makes offensive lines worse when he starts coaching them, and the longer he's with them, oftentimes they get worse. So

this guy is a problem as a NFL offensive line coach. Um, And you know, it's just mind boggling, nothing more to say. I don't know why he keeps getting jobs. Greater season win total six um again over slightly juiced minus one thirty. These courtesy of the Westgate season win totals in the lines. The individual game lines you see on the screen all courtesy of CG Technology. I could go on and on, but again it's just a flavor for what you can

find nuggets in Warren Sharp's Pro Football preview guide. UM, So, just generally speaking that because I won't pick on anyone individually here anymore, but generally speaking, what are the teams Warren? The team war teams that you feel shuns analytics the most or just has the most general lack of awareness of most of the tenants that you point out in

your guide at chart football Stats and a chart Football Analysis. Uh, well, there's there's a couple of teams that, um, you know, have talent and they're not using analytics enough to help get them over the edge. The two teams that perhaps are the most talented but aren't using enough analytics out there, in my opinion, are the Seattle Seahawks in the l A Chargers. I mean, these are perennial playoff contenders, um,

and over the last several years. You know, in the Chargers case longer than that, they can't get over that hump. And you know for the Chargers their cases, they just don't do enough there. They've started to throw the football to the running backs more so. That's great, that's perfectly in line on early downs with what you're supposed to be doing. But I mean, I just wrote an article up at her Football Analysis earlier today. Philip Rivers has

started every single game since Deal, every single game. No quarterback has started more games than him. The best play on short yard is is a quarterback sneak. They convert about seventy eight percent at a time running back you hand off to them about worse conversion rate. How many quarterback sneaks does Philip Rivers have in those four years since two thous of fifteen when he started every single game one one sneak? It makes no sense. Brady's got

like thirty eight. Even a guy like Drew Brees, shorter, smaller than both Uh Brady and Philip Rivers, has attempts and he's converted twenty six of them into first dound that. The fact that Philip Rivers refuses two quarterbacks snake the ball in these short yard of situations, it's amazing. Yeah, it's it's it's almost worn, like it's written into his

contract if you didn't know any better. Right, Like, you never see Philip Rivers quarterback sneake, You never see Ben Roethlisberger run play action like it just doesn't happen like as often as it should. And you point out at some point in the book to Uh, these are two things we've talked about on the show before. But that's a thing with the Steelers. They just don't Why aren't they running more play action? Play action helps tremendously in

certain situations with the Seahawks. So you mentioned it's all about they run too much. Uh, it's just so many fascinating tidbits. We'll come back, war We'll take a break. I want to get into some strength schedule stuff because you do that very well. It's Warren Sharp from at Sharp Football on Twitter, Sharp football stats dot com, Sharp football Analysis dot com. We'll talk more about his preview guide straight the schedule. Next on a Numbers game at Visa.

Down Back to a Numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. Back on the Numbers game, Sports Betting Analytics Live Gil Alexander right here at Visa in Series XM, Channel two. Oh for Warren Sharp, kind enough to join us this

morning for a spell. Warren, just before the break, I asked you, what are the team war teams in the National Football League that are least embracing of analytics, And you said, of the teams with talent it would have of a lot of talent, would be the Chargers in the Seahawks. If we took away that qualifier of the teams with talent, and let's just set all thirty two teams, with the Redskins being number one on that list. Well, they would be close. Um. They certainly are problematic with

their run rate on early downs. It got worse with the Dream Peterson. You know, Jake Gruten's infatuated with that, and uh, it's very unproductive. And the problem is that now they may be starting. I mean, for while you thought there he was doing it because he didn't love his quarterbacks, but I mean Kirk Cousins was giving him a certain level of play. Uh. And you know, they continue to run the football stage. Maybe it was maybe Jay didn't think as highly as Kirk. Okay, Well, so

they brought in Alex Smith to hand picked them. They still were doing it. Without Alex Smith, they still were doing it. And now you've got either case Keenum or possibly a rookie, and I think they're probably still going to continue to run too much. Now. They did hire an analytics guy, uh this this upcoming season to try to assist them. How much though influence he will be able to have over like play calls in that capacity,

uh is I'm skeptical of. But we'll see. I Mean, I always hope that teams change their ways and do things more intelligently. But I take a realistic approach to it, a pragmatic approach. And you know, Jake Gluten, you know it can't change his stripes back quickly. I don't think. Yeah, if they push Scott mcluin out, they can push anybody out in d C. Uh famous Sloan sports conference with you. By the way, we're on a panel for this past year, so it congratulates to you on that, but a famous one.

A couple of years ago, few years back, I ran into Matthew Berry from ESPN Fantasy Guy, who of course is a huge Redskin fan as well for those who don't know, from d C, and I said, does it bother you, like the the only NFL team not here of the Redskins, and and he looked around, he goes, yeah, actually it does. So just not very exciting for those of us who would like the Redskins to approach things

perhaps with a little more brain power. All right, So, Warren, strength of schedule, we talked about this every year, and we talked a little bit about it earlier in the off season when season win totals were first coming out. But break this down for us in terms of the easiest and hardest past defenses run defenses faced. However, you wanna to parse it out right, So I think first, I mean, we have to understand just who who are

you facing? Um and the team that has the most interesting schedule variants from the team season is the Houston Texans, and we talked about that before. They have my number one easiest schedule last year. They have the number one most difficult UH schedule this year, and other teams that are grouped near them are the Broncos, the Raiders, and now the Dolphins. The Dolphins as I've adjusted my strength of schedule analytics based on some tweaks that Vegas has

made to the season win totals. By the way, there really hasn't been a whole lot of movement which season totals since they've opened. It's a it's been a kind of a unique year. Imagine we'll see more as training camps open and injuries start to occur. But Um and the Titans also have a very difficult schedule. On the flip side of that, the teams that I projected, what a month or two ago with you to have the

easiest schedule still have the easiest schedules. Of Patriots, of course, because they play in the NFC starr of the FC East. The Jets also have a very easy schedule. How do the Bills? So the a f C East plays the easy schedule of opponents throwing there the Eagles and the Browns. That's your top five easiest to overall schedules. Uh, if we want to talk about from a fantasy perspective, um as well as you know what's going to help quarterback play. And I think you've known this for a while now.

We've kind of alluded to it. But when teams are when when fans are looking at, what's my team? How are we going to do this year? Keep in mind offense is more important to your wins and losses than his defense, and passing offense is more important to your wins and losses than rushing offense. To the first place you might want to start with strength of schedule is just analyzing um which teams are going to face easier, tough schedules of opposing past defenses. Taking the mind these

are projections. Also taken to mind that great quarterbacks and passing offenses can overcome tough schedules. Where it hurts is where mediocre passing offenses face a tough schedule, and where it really helps is when a good passing offense faces a really easy schedule. So let's run through the five easiest schedules of passing defenses this year. Arizona partners with

Cliff Kingsbury. They're going to face the number one easiest schedule of past defenses, which should be really interesting and makings fun out in Arizona with Kyler Murray obviously growing pains, but they will face the easiest schedule of past defenses. Carolina with Cam Newton. How's the should they're going to do? That's going to be interesting. The forty Niners with Jimmy Garoppolo at number three, obviously getting him back is valuable.

That offense was way beyond expectations in terms of doing really good last year with backup caliber quarterbacks. I love the job that Kyle Shanahan did. Number four is the Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins getting another shot at having a good season this year with the new offensive coordinator. And tied at fifth are the Saints and the Bucks, two teams from the NFC South. Bruce Arians now coaching the Buck. That offense should be interesting. Obviously lost Sehn Jackson, but UH,

Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Fifth easiest schedules. Look at the most difficult schedules the top five. The Chiefs hardest past schedule of any team this upcoming season. But I mentioned in the past, a great offense can overcome that, and they certainly do have a great offense and a great quarterback. But it's going to hurt teams like uh,

the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Miami Dolphins, the Oakland Raiders. Those are numbers two through four in terms of the most difficult schedule of past defenses, and rounding out the rear is the Cleveland Browns. So Baker Mayfield, he struggled last year against good past defenses, but he was a rookie and he was modifying into a system that he wasn't

taught in training camp because Freddie Kitchens took over. So he's gonna strike, you know, will he adapt to that in year two and play better against his tough defenses. Time will tell, But he's going to face a much more difficult schedule than he did last year. That is fascinating stuff right there, and you're right, especially the past defenses faced, especially for fantasy purposes. Uh, is really good stuff right there. Um, your fantasy guy who's also in

your preview guy, is it rich Rebar? Is that how you pronounced his name? Yeah? He he also uh he he likes Jamis Winston and the Bucks did show up on your five top easiest past defenses faced. He thought that was a breakout possibility for Winston, which I found interesting. But yeah, so much of that is great fantasy information because you're right not to be taken as the gospel. I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes is going all of

a sudden crater because of that. But for the other teams there, the Dolphins and the Raiders, little Baker Mayfield perhaps, uh, you know, dousing of the flame there, and then on the easiest side, you're right, Kyler Murray maybe a flyer there under Cliff Kingsbury as a very easy group of fast defenses faced, you know, assuming he'll play all all sixty games. But I mean, that stuff is great. How do you do this for rush defenses as well? Yes,

definitely for rush defenses. We can run through that quickly because it's it's not gonna have as many implications for your overall, um, you know, win losses, but let's hit it anyways. The easiest schedule is going to be for the forty Niners, So um, that's going to be interesting because they have a big running back by committee there and they've got Kevin Coleman now Jacks and Kennan is healthy. They brought him in last year but towards a c L so he missed the whole year. How will he perform?

Very interesting situation. Maybe not a lot of fantasy value to chew on until we see who's gonna actually take the bulk of those carries. Another team that's really interesting is the Baltimore Ravens. That number two EASIESTU team obviously loves to run the football, so they've got an easy schedule this year. Uh. This Seattle Seahawks, another team ran too much last year, but how are they going to get away from it when they've got an easier schedule

of run defenses this year? And then Arizona another team they got they just have an easier schedule of overall defense UM and easy schedule run. And then number five is the Pittsburgh Steelers. So James Conner year two with him as a starter, That should be interesting. Overall the most difficult schedule of run defenses, UH, Kansas City Chiefs. So the Chiefs just played like the most difficult overall schedule of opposing defenses. UM, and it's very tough against

run defenses. I still think that Damian Williams what he does in the past game and what he can contribute in the run game, couple with how terrible Carlos Hide really is. I mean, look at the stats. I had a tweet about him yesterday. Guys terrible, He's I doubt he's going to take away substantial carries from Damian Williams. So I still like him in fantasy a lot. Um green Bay, you know it's going to be interesting now before wants to start running the football more and being

a little up more balanced. But Green Bay faces the second most difficult schedules run defenses. Your team the Washington Redskins Tennessee for the third most difficult schedule of run defenses. And of course, you know Jake Gruden likes to run the football lot. So does the Tennessee Titans, and they're gonna have to do so against tough schedule run defenses. In the Atlanta Falcons Round, up the bottom five as the most difficult run defensive space warrant. That is outstanding stuff.

Last question before I let you go, though Chief's toughest they're in They're among the toughest when they face past defenses. They're also among the toughest rush defense schedules they're facing. I have to word that properly. So Chiefs once again, the past defenses and rush defenses they face, uh, their number one in the toughest in those categories. But yet they're not in the top five of the toughest overall schedules. Uh. In terms of the defenses they face. They are in

terms of the schedule. In terms of the overall schedule, they ranked twenty if so they have what is that like, the eight toughest schedule of overall opponents they face based on wind totals, But they will be facing the most difficult schedule of opposing defenses this year based on my projection. Got you Okay? That clarifies it for me? Okay, same thing, by the way, I was gonna ask for the Cardinals,

but I guess that was the distinction. It's it's tough, it's really easy defense as they face, but not necessarily overall. Is their schedule that easy? It's really on that side of the ball. Um Warren Sharp again at Sharp Football, Sharp Football Analysis dot Com, Sharp Football Stats dot Com, and again the preview guide for everybody on the way out, warrant work. Can they get that Sharp Football Analysis dot Com if you want the pdf or Sharp or just go on Amazon if you want the printed book and

just search for Warren Sharp's football Preview. All right, Warrant appreciate it. We'll talk to you during the season, my friend. Thank you, Joe Warren Sharp, best in the business, right there, kind enough to join us in years past each and every Thursday with Bill Crackenburger round table here on a Numbers game at Visa, and we go through that week's NFL schedule and we of course rail on stuff we saw the previous season. Hopefully we can get Warred to

do that this year. He's a busy man, though. We'll try to, uh, we'll try to get him to do it again, back for another season. Support for today's show comes from Bookmaker dot eu. Bookmaker dot eu and industry leader for close to thirty years. Pro players consider them a must because of these three things. They are first to post odds, They take the highest limits, and they pride themselves on never having kicked out a winning player.

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sports betting information here at Serious except Channel two four. Uh, first time on the show. Real happy to have this gentleman on from Pro Football Focus, also a serious XM host himself. Ladies and gentlemen, Jeff Radcliffe, good morning to you, Jeff, Good morning, glad to be here. I appreciate it, man, Jeff. I have a buddy who's in the Mountain time zone who told me before the show, when I told him

you were coming on, he said, please tell Jeff. I'm a little upset because his time slot changed for him. So now he like he doesn't hear you going into work. Now he has to play you in a podcast as motive. When can people hear you? Right now? We are on at one eastern on Serious x M Fantasy Sports Radio. So that's to ten on sirius and x M A D seven And hey to my friend in the Mountain time zone. I I wish I had to stay I'm on the air, but we know it doesn't work that way. Yeah,

we do. Well. He well, he'll appreciate the person to person Uh message back, that's for sure, all right. So, Jeff, there's so much I want to ask you here, so much and maybe even trying to coax the player prop out of you or two. Uh, after all this is done, But first thing is, I'm just curious how does one get into being the fantasy guy? Like, how was it? What were you doing before this? And then how did you finagle your way into being expert in this subject?

So I actually have a PhD in anthropology and so too. I've had two jobs in my lifetime that people have no idea what I do because fantasy certainly, Uh, that through a lot of people for a loop initially, but you know, it was back I received that in two thousand twelve, and uh, it was back at two thousand ten when I was really just looking for ways to procrastinate. I'm not gonna lie. And uh, Unfortunately at the time it was right before you know, the the industry kind

of grew and developed into what it is today. And I reached out to the right person at the right time. Happened to be Mike Clay who's now at ESPN, and um, you know, fortunately for me, Mike saw something and said, hey, you can write. I'm not gonna pay you, but you can write. Uh. So, um, you know, we started from there and honestly, nobody was paying attention and and and really for me, it wasn't about uh, you know, getting

any accolades or anything. I just wanted to talk about football because I love this game, and fantasy has been an outlet for that. Gambling has been an outlet for that as well. And you know, over enough time, if you work hard at something, you can you can kind of get your way in there. So you know, timing, of course everything in life. Uh. And of course it was right before the big DFS boom that we saw in fourteen and fifteen. But yeah, that's that's the story.

It's a weird story. It's not what I expected to do with myself. No. I love it though because some people are gonna be like, oh, it's the old cliche, it really is true, Like I mean, you you work for nothing. I mean so many of us have that similar story where I used to say, by my podcast, you're lucky. If I was wearing pants, right, I wasn't making any money doing the podcast, but you just you had a passion you went for it. Yeah, a little

timing perhaps, but you know what's the saying. Uh, you know, luck is where preparation meets opportunity and Mike Clay, who we've had on this show and on the podcast before. UH saw what he saw in you, and you have made the most of it. So let so let me ask you this. Jeff again, talking to Jeff Ratcliffe, who you can find on Twitter at Jeff Ratcliffe r A T C L I F E on Twitter, the director

of Pro Football Focus Fantasy. UM, I'm curious when you're making your rankings, and we'll dive into some of these, but your top sixty rankings, which you're a proponent for everybody to make their own top sixty rankings, but you provide it will actually show it up on the screen. What Jeff has his top sixty? How much of this is based on your own proprietary stats, how much of this is Pro Football Focus stats per se? And then to what extent are you incorporating day to day NFL

news into this? So I won't take like an obvious thing like an injury like Tyrek the other day, what was was reheeled off the practice squad and then he came back. I'm talking more like a Redskins Trent Williams thing as it applies to say, Darius, guys, are you watching that kind of thing very actively to monitor how you would put a guy like guys up and down the board. Yes, Now there's a lot of a lot

of inputs in football. That's the that's the challenge. So you know, I am fortunate enough to have a lot of cool stats at my disposal from working for PFF. But you know, I have my own model that I used to to really establish a baseline. So I always say projections. A lot of people take projections at gospel, but really what they are is averages, right, so there are a good starting spot, they're really not the end point because they don't show you ceiling and floor, uh

you know. Whereas with with like gambling, for example, I think it's great to use projections. Sometimes with fantasy it can be a little it can be a little uh off, you know, especially when you're looking at season long I much rather prefer weekly projections to season long projections because the season long don't show you the ups and downs

throughout the course of the season. Like you get a guy like DeShawn Jackson who any week he could go for a buck fifty and two scores and he could also go for fifteen yards right for weeks on end, Yeah, yeah, exactly, and that doesn't show up in the season long projection, so I start there. But then there's there's an art to it. There's subjectivity to all of this, and and

that the aspect of news is very important. You know, back in the day, used to work for Rhoto World, so I know what you know goes into creating the news feed at Rhoto World. And the biggest lesson I learned was to react and not overreact. You know, I've seen people already moving Ezekiel Elliott down the board. We're not at August six yet. You know, August six is a date. If he's not there, if he's hanging out in Mexico in August six, yes, now we need to react.

But right now moving him down our board isn't really doing anything because I think it's just posturing. I think ultimately we do see him get paid. But then again, I didn't think Leviian Bell was gonna sit out the entire season last year. So we got to get to August six first. If Zeke is not in camp, then we adjust. So that's the sort of the the art

to it, not overreacting to news. Pre August six, you've got Zeke is your number one player on your top six ranking, se Kwon, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, no surprise to three four there um. But as far as you have your status or is it PF stats, like, what's what's in this mix? Well, it's it's a lot of stuff that I use from PFF. So over the years now I'm I'm this is my tenth NFL season with PFF. I've been able to kind of work through all the

data and that was the beautiful thing. In the beginning. We have all these numbers and nobody knew what had to do with them. So, you know, when Mike Clay worked for us and I was working with him, we were tinkering with things and figuring out what what meant something and what was just you know, noise, and uh

so I use a lot of that stuff. It's nothing, you know, I'm not compiling anything necessarily on my own, just from a time standpoint, but I do have a whole bunch of sheets that I can input data into and then start to make sense of it pretty quickly. People loving these rankings on the screen. I'm sure fantasy heads, all right. So there's a couple of Jeff Radcliffe tenants that I love to pass along as sort of fantasy one on one to people. Um, one of which is,

let's start here. The difference between PPR and non PPR isn't often as significant as many make it out to be. We all have our friends, they're always the PPR. Is it not PPR and you're saying, you know, not the most important thing in the world, exactly exactly. I think sometimes we get bogged down by the microcosm and and the reality is we just want to make the best decisions possible. And you know, I get it, because hey,

everybody's ramped up for fantasy, especially right now. If you're drafting like three weeks, you're thinking about that thing every day, and second is thinking about that thing. He's gonna get the paralysis by over analysis. And the reality is like a running back like James White, is he more valuable in PPR than he is in non PPR. Yes, but not as significantly as as a lot of people think. He was seventh in PPR last year he was eleventh and non PPR. So that's the difference of only a

few spots. The thing about it is a back like James White, I don't think we should be looking at him as like, oh, well, we can't draft him in PPR or not or in non PPR. That is the thing we have to realize is his his fantasy production comes from catches. You know, he's not a high floor running back. He may have a high feeling on a weekly basis, but he also has a low floor given

the volatility of touches. It's all about touches in fantasy football, and James White, you can't guarantee that he's going to go out and have like a seven, eight, nine catch game every week. It's just not gonna happen. So you know, it's it's a little bit of a bump your ride with those sorts of backs, and I tend to fade

them even across the board, even if PPR. I tend to say, guys like that, Jeff, two of your big tenants, I think these are the macro ones draft for value, don't reach, don't overlook the importance of roster construction though as well early in your draft. So I put those two together. M my oldest friend in the world, My best friend in the world, Tommy back in d C. He's got the old Booby Prize he's got twelve in a twelve team Snake draft, So he's got twelve and thirteen.

So what do you say to someone like him if a lot of the running backs are off the board and he's staring at say, I don't know, looking at your rankings. Let's say Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, who many would say is head and shoulders above any other tight end in football, they're on the board. Do you say to someone like him, you know what, grab those two guys, Kelsey being the best tight end, Hill being the ultimate game changer in fantasy? Or are running backs?

You know? And again you've got to watch what your opponents are doing. What would you tell someone who's got number twelve right now? In that case? Well, I think my number one objective here this season is to get one of the top ten running backs. I was saying top eleven, but Melvin Gordon situation bumps him out of there. Right now. It could change, we could go back to top eleven, but I want to get at least one of those guys, because I'm telling you, if you went

Kelsey Hill, you feel really good. You you know, you put those stickers on the board, you get the ooze and odds you get the all man tight ends off the board already. But then in round three when it rolls back to you, and that's a long wait, who is on the board at running back? Now you're looking at probably like the twentieth running back on the board, And I don't feel that comfortable there because running back

is gonna spin out really quickly. So in an optimal world, and I do not think at twelve that you're gonna have all of the top ten running backs taken already an ossible world, what I would do, It's very likely take one of those top ten, fade Kelsey and take Hill because you can get a good tight end. I'm drafting Jared Cook in the seventh round and twelve team leagues every draft I can this year, you can get

a good tight end between rounds five and seven. You get Hunter Henry, get O J. Howard, you get Evan Ingram, you get Jared Cook, you can get Dance McDonald, you get Eric Ebron. And I like that roster construction a lot more having that top end running back than having Kelsey. So fade Kelsey in that case, fade Kelsey because there are so many tight ends available. You can get great value laid. Perhaps take hill and perhaps take a running back. That is probably very sound advice. And that is sort

of the corollary to the whole quarterback thing. And I think this is like, this is a massive thing, right because people are so tempted by a Patrick Mahomes early, um, by a you know, I don't know, pick your quarterback by an Aaron Rodgers early, but quarterbacks, that's the key to all these drafts. In your opinion, just wait, just wait as long as you can. Absolutely, there is so much value nited in mock draft yesterday for CBS, and you're talking industry. People are gonna wait very long. But

this got out of control. I had Russell Wilson in the twelfth round and Ben Rowl the Spurker in the thirteenth round. And I know people are kind of running away from Ben and because of no way B. But that's just crazy, doll. And it just shures you the depth of the position. I mean, Mahomes went relatively early, but you're talking you can get guys who are legit fantasy starters as the twentie quarterback off the board. Kirk

Cousins is going twenty. He had another four thousand yard season and its first third touchdown past season, you know of his career, and people are acting like, you know, he's the plague at this point. I love the value. You could just totally wait, and if you're in a ten team league, you could legitimately not draft a quarterback and still be fine. You could stream all season long and still be fine. If you're an eight team league,

you don't have to drag quarterback. So it's just so much depth the position in this past happy NFL that we have right now just makes more sense to wait. So many great fantasy tenants that might be the greatest of them all. I got Jared Golf in the twelfth round last year, Jeff twelfth round. You know, so it's so true, Yeah, so true, beautiful number two quarterbacks through the first eleven weeks of the season. Yeah, and you know, and you haven't recommended. We just flashed on screen about

ninth tenth round this year. Kind of thing for Jared goff Um. So many things to ask you about fantasy Um, I'll save them for another time. Will you hang out right here after the break, real quick segment. I want to ask you about a few NFL player props if you would, Jeff Sure, Jeff Radcliffe, Pro Football Focus coming back on a Numbers game at Visa. It's a Numbers Games live from the Tip of the Strip in Las Vegas.

Gets your films Numbers even after the show is over by following the crew on Twitter at Beating the Book and at beast in Live this week, here's some of what you missed. We have to wait to the end of these fights to see these scorecards. Why please tell me why we don't get to see this after every round?

I think about how how much better as betters first of all, as as people who wager on these, and as just viewers and fans of boxing, if we could see the scorecard after every single round, how much more fair all of this would seem, how much more exciting

it would be because and the boxers would know. I heard somebody And when I said that on the air the other day, somebody on Twitter at Beating the Book said, well, they're worried that one of the boxers that if he's way up, he wouldn't have to go all out and fight. We'll go book. That's the case in every other sport. If a team's up seventeen points, they can alter their strategy accordingly, Why don't we have that for boxing? You're concerned about the cowboys here with guy. I want to

get paid all I want to get paid. I want my money cash. Zeke wants it, but they have the fifth year option for him. They don't have a fifth year option of Deck because he was in the first round. So he's gonna have to get his money too. So what do you do? Kellen Moore calling the place about that first year off and coordinator will help from John Kitna apparently Lenahan was not well, like he's out the door.

So there's a lot of changes in the dells. Are you going to fall up your chair when they give Deck? How much every money they're gonna give him, because you know Paulie, it's gonna be pushing probably what thirty million dollars a year. I'll tell you I know this. His stats stink. When Zeke's not on the field, they're horrible. Talk about a running back that's worth a point or two to line. It's seek, it's night and day. His numbers was was Zeke on and off the field? It's crazy.

So I know Jerry got him some new toys at least with the uh he lost Beasley, though he gets Witten back, and then they made the big trade last year to which I didn't like, but it worked out for the short term. We'll see Cooper does again this year. I will ask you this in a day and age where running backs are inevitably replaceable almost on every single team, and quarterbacks are supposed to be, you know, the crown

jewel for every team, not this guy. If you could pay, if you could, if they could only pay one guy the money, Dad Prescott, Zeke, who do you give it to? I'd have to go Zeke, and on have to uh maybe sign like a case Cam or somebody like that. I'd go Zeke and I try to replace dat. I just can't WoT. You can't. You can't beat your chest and say how great ye are, but then you have horrific numbers when the guy's not on the field, and then when he was just spended, how bad it was.

You can't do it. Now, back to a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our VS IN studios in Las Vegas. We've got a few good minutes left here. With Jeff Ratcliffe from Pro Football Focus again, you can follow him on Twitter at Jeff Ratcliff. That's r A T C L I F F E. Just a couple other tenants of drafting at your fantasy drafts. Ceiling more important than floor. So, in other words, what was the comparison used, Jeff, between the two wideouts that

you cited in your last article. Do you remember to give a good example of that? Oh, man, off the top of my head, I'm not really it was the Tyler Tyler Lockett versus somebody versus Larry Fitzgerald. That was it? There, you go, yeah, yeah, So it's Larry Fitzgerald is obviously one of those name brand guys, and we see this year in and year out. Everybody knows him. It's sort of comfortable, you like, you know he's older, but you still draft him anyway. But there's almost no ceiling with

Larry Fitzgerald at this point. Hall of famer, you know, future Hall of famer, one of the best fantasy options all the time at the position. But Tyler Lockett has juice. You know, he has major upside. Now granted it's a run heavy offense, but he still scored ten touchdowns. I expect that that, you know, efficiency to regress this year because he took that on fifty seven catches. But you know he's got so much more upside, especially you know, figuring to be the number one target now with Doug

Ball went out in the mix. So if you might have him ranked closely, well, the reality is you should lean towards a guy with the higher ceiling all right now, as you select players from the top sixty, don't worry about bye weeks or players on the same team, at least not that high in the draft. So again, great stuff from Jeff. Check out the articles Pro Football Focus, Um.

Such great work and there's so many fantasy questions I could ask you, but our raining time here, let me just throw a player proper to it you or maybe you have one that you want to throw out. This is from DraftKings Jeff about Lamar Jackson specifically. I'm curious if you have any thoughts on this total rushing attempts on the regular season for Lamar Jackson of the Ravens.

It set a one ninety and a half. The over is the dog at plus one ten, the under juiced as the favorite about minus one thirty four on that one. Any thoughts there? I mean, I can't see him getting close to that number. I know a lot of people are looking at at the over seventeen it was just over seventeen attempts per game for week eleven on. We're not gonna get close to that at all. And we actually currently haven't projected a hundred and sixty four rushing attempts,

so that'd be a big time under. I just you know, the team wants if they want to make it through the season, uh, you know, with him under center, they can't be given him that sort of volume as a the runner. So I think that I would take the under on that one, and that that's what I'm comfortable on. Like with player props. And by the way, like if you're listening to this, you're a fantasy player, player props

is the natural. Like for me, I always was a little intimidated by by going, you know, picking games against the spread or or money line or or over under. But player props, I mean, we're studying these players anyway, and I think it's one of the bigger advantages that you're gonna have over sports books. So I like, you know, when I'm not right on that line, when I'm you know,

way under like this. I'm like with Lamar, I am gonna, you know, take that action real quick here, Jeff, And in our remaining few seconds, is there a player or a player that you think is overrated or underrated by the market, whether it's a quarterback, running back, or receiver yardage wise, you know, I haven't really seen much that would be too overrated. Uh, there are some that I

think are a little underrated. I keep seeing Antonio Brown's yardage total just feels a little little under and I know people are are you know, downgrading him because Derek Carr from Ben Roethlisberger thing. But the reality is he's gonna see volume in that offense and a b could still go out and put up a fourteen hundred yards season. So I've seen that. I've seen that over unto around

about twelve hundred yards for much of the off season. Yeah, twelve, yeah, twelve twenty five over at draft King, So big over for you on that, Jeff. We've gotta get you back because we're running out of time. But this is great stuff again at Jeff Radcliffe on Twitter. Jeff, good luck with all your drafts and uh, we'll be watching you at Pro Football Focus. My friend. Thank you appreciate it.

Thanks Jeff Radcliffe debut performance here on a Numbers game and visit welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander and more about that golf we just before, we'll get the Todd Right here because you make a good point also, Jeff all fair, which is you might want to take a flyer one of the long shots. It should be pointing out that if it wasn't kept us specifically, I probably wouldn't go plus two hundred, right, But it's Kepka talking to Todd Right. By the way, the greatest

radio host there ever was ladies and gentlemen. By my money, I will not be debated on this. Uh. Former host of the All Night with Todd Right showed ESPN Radio back in the day, and as I mentioned, the Todd Right Fantasy Football podcast and the Todd Right Toddcast. Uh these days, so um, Todd, before we get into specific fantasy football questions, you are a noted commissioner who runs

his his leagues with an iron fist. I'm playing with that, but maybe maybe you do this of the extent you wanted to say something about those who are setting up leagues. You had something to say, Well, what I've been doing on the Fantasy Football podcast since we came back for the season for the first time in four years. We took a little bit of a hiatus with a fantasy podcast, so I wasn't talking fantasy football from say February until June.

Is set up your league's properally, and I've I've you've given me a forum deal to talk to a lot of fantasy the owners about this. I've even had some of your listeners say, hey, we want to adopt some of the things that you talk about, but we're having a tough time convincing our commissioner. So many commissioners are stuck in the past. They haven't evolved their leagues. And I get help now when I even see some other fantasy people writing columns on major website saying time to

fix fantasy football now, they don't do enough. So just a few of the things I say. First of all, I say PPRS outdated. Now I'm not expecting everyone to drop PPR, but here is the simple argument. Running backs in the nineties, when you had Emmett Smith and Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders and Chris Warren, and they dominated the game they touched the ball so much. Now you don't have. I mean, really, Ezekiel Elliott. And that's a whole other issue again. Right now I feel like I'm

covering Hivin Smith again. Um, running backs don't dominate the game like they used to, so so they don't dominate fantasy football like they used to. If you use a yardage base league, and you use fractions where every game of yardage by every player ultimately produces points, I don't understand why, say, uh, anyone who catches a ball and doesn't gain yards should earn a point. The running back

doesn't earn a point for handing him the ball. In most leagues, the quarterback doesn't earn anything for simply throwing the ball or having it caught. So I've never understood that. So again I'm losing this battle. But I think overturing people will see PPR is too much of a reward for just catching a ball and doing nothing with it. If the player does something with it in a yardage base league, you are rewarded with the yards. Just as the player helps his team game yardage, he helps your

fantasy team. Why should any player receive a point for reception that gains no yards. And it's not just those zero yards, just in general the other things that I've talked to you about very quickly. There aren't enough tight ends to go around, and once the bye week start hitting, it's almost an every week thing. I got sick of answering all these well, I need a tight end this week. No, you don't change your lead. Make the tight end voluntary,

it's not mandatory. You simply use a wide receiver slash tight end flex. You replace the tight end position with a wide receiver or a tight end. So if you do have, say Zach Ertz, or you have Travis Kelsey, you can play him, or you have or you're big on Evan Ingram, that's fine. But you could go the entire year not touch the tight end position and doesn't matter. You just play a third wide receiver in that spot.

It impacts your league, not at all negatively, unless you're forcing tight ends down people's throats, which you shouldn't do because there aren't enough to go around. The Other thing that I really really wish more leagues would do is modify kicker scoring, because, let's say, in a standard scoring league, even with the yardage incentives. I've never understood why a fifty yard field goal should be worth five points and a forty nine yard touchdown isn't worth I'm sorry, a

twenty four yard touchdown pass isn't worth five points. Uh So I eliminate any field goal being worth more than three. I don't think your kicker should be able to roll up twenty points in a week, so you make every field goal worth three. And for those who say, well, wait, you know that, what about the incentive for anything from outside of forty while you put in a penalty for anything inside of forty. So it's basically this simple. If your kicker makes any field goal, just like in an

NFL game, it's worth three points. But if he misses anything from thirty nine and in, you lose one point, and the same on extra points. You get one if he makes it, minus one if he misses it. This curbs kicker scoring, and I think then falls more in line with the actual game itself. Those are my biggest ones. Another one I'm on is the dropping of dst Entirely. I've never played the I d P, but by dropping D S T Gill is just two random it is.

It's just so random how the points are accumulated, and so many smart owners can just throw a dart each week and mix and match and look for matchups, And to me, that takes away from the value of building a season long team. So in my podcast league and in my personal league, I've eliminated defense special teams altogether. None of us stare up there who are fantasy football fans. You're not staring up there rooting for your defense, and

if you are, to me, it's pretty pathetic. So I think you're eliminated as the most random element of fantasy football. You know. It's a great point about that. One Todd though, is there's always a guy in everybody's league who makes hay on the waiver wire defensive pickup based on the matchup every every week. And it occurs to me that it penalizes people who have lives, you know what I mean, who aren't as sharp on the waiver while it's just there's that. And the last one about the PPR non

PPR thing. Jeff Radcliffe from ProFootball Focus. I'm not sure if you're familiar with him. He was on the show last week talking about this. He said he's actually run the numbers on that stuff. He goes, even if you have that distinction, it ultimately doesn't really matter that much in the end. That's what his point was. So that would just sort of Butcher's your point from his perspective as well. Um, I have so many questions about individual players before we go to break though, let me just

actually one generally. Let's let's talk about just mistakes. General mistakes that people make that you just want people to stop doing. Give me those. Well, well, first of all, is don't be a homer in your fantasy league. Generally, it's not gonna work. Now, there are examples where it can. I have a Philadelphia Eagle homer. I don't know Gil. I know, well, he's the assistant pro at a private club, so I let him in the league so I can

play there. That's a cowboy fan talking to a red skin fair right there by the way right, and he's an Eagles fan. So two years ago he went all in on the Eagles. It actually were the only Eagles he didn't known were the two eye drafted arts and foals. But he had other ones and it did work out for him because they won the Super Bowl and they were good all year and he didn't lose Wentz until right about the time the fantasy playoffs began, but he got by because he had somebody named Homes on his

bench that all said, don't be at Homer. I don't know about you, Gil, I mean, we've all been there, whether whether we're losing against the spread or we're losing our favorite team is losing. I like to separate. So I'm a Cowboys fan. If the Cowboys blank the bed one week, I want to bounce back with my fantasy team. I can't do that if I have a bunch of

Cowboys on my fantasy team. So I think you split your loyalties and you limit yourself to one player, one player where you didn't overdraft for that player off your favorite team, and that's it. I also think you're a smarter football fan and you know more about the thirty two team NFL for gaming purposes, betting purposes, and overall knowledge. If you force yourself to combine a fantasy football team from around the league and not just your favorite team,

I like it. That's your a number one. That's the that's the number one mistake to avoid. That's the biggest, the biggest one. Because everybody plays in a league where there's an obvious homer or two, and when they make a pick like that, they'll say homer. But what it does is you let those homers be homers because that elevates the value of the player they should have picked, and it keeps them in the draft pool for uh, fantasy owners who aren't homers and aren't filling their team

with their their players on their favorite team. Makes sense to me, makes sense to me. And thank you for using the word blank as well, Todd. I appreciate that in that uh. Uh. So we'll come back hanging height because I want to ask you about specific things. One, uh, your take on drafting quarterbacks high that some people seem to want to do this year. Um, and specifically you

mentioned Ezekiel Elli. We'll talk about him, Antonio Brown, Melvin Gordon uh and then the Travis Kelsey conundum A conundrum rather for those who are having tight ends rammed down their throats. As you say, Todd, I want to ask you all these questions. It's Fantasy Football with Todd Wright, Ladies and gentlemen, host of the Todd Right Fantasy Football podcast. By the way, UH answers all your fantasy football questions

at Todd Wright Fantasy Football at gmail dot com. Coming right back all those questions and more on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill Alexander. Thank you. Ron flatter Ban is back on the Numbers Game, Gil Alexander, Jeff Parls is here and Todd Wright from the Todd Right Fantasy Football podcast, and Todd writes, toddcast kind enough to join us once again. All right, Todd, you're ready for some fantasy football speed

round sir? Ready for that? Yes? And also at the end, asked me about the FedEx Cup Final again. I misunderstood your question about changes. I want to address that again at the end, I apologize I misunderstood the question. No problem, no problem, we would do that. Uh. Let's take someone you just mentioned from your beloved Dallas Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott. I am still of the mindset that he that they get this worked out. He's Zeke after all, and he's

the engine for the Cowboys. But you know, people's fantasy drafts are starting to come now, Um, what do you do? We had this, you know on Draft Eve with Levian Bell last year. How how do you handle this with Ezekiel Elliott with the sort of the question mark that he is. The way I would handle it is here how I handled it two years ago, and also employing my Homer theory. When there was this thought he'd be suspended for the first six games, and when that was pending, UM,

I went out in the first round. Uh, and I drafted then a solid RB one middle of the first round, and Shady McCoy, and then we wrapped around snake draft too, and ironically I took Melvin Gordon. By the time it got around to me in the third round, Elliott was still on the board because he had scared so many owners away. I took him then, um, because now he's a bonus to me. I already have my RB one

and I have my RB two. So even if Elliott missed the first six games, if I've drafted properly at one and two, I didn't need him anyway because none of those by weeks came into play. Now. That ironically was a season also where I picked up Alvin Kamara on waivers. I think after week one it might have been weak two. So even when Elliott hit his six week suspension, I was prepared so I think you have to treat an Elliott, and you have to treat a

Gordon that way if you're drafting before their holdouts ultimately end. Uh. Look, other owners are probably going to jump in front of you, but that's the way I would treat it is, don't treat them like a starter. But if they fall into their lap and you can put them on your bench, they have great value the minute this is all resolved. But otherwise, let somebody else draft him. In other words, if somebody wants to overdraft him by your standards there,

let him, let him do it. So Melvin Gordon, who you brought up there, ironically you went with the last time this this uh happened in one of, if not the most ill conceived holdout in my opinion, of of all time. I guess you just completely ignore him for a while. Let someone else deal with that headache, because he's got backups in in in Los Angeles, Austin Ekeler being the biggest example of that. Melvin Gordon may never be the Melvin Gordon this year that last too long. Yeah,

it's it's it's not very pensible to me. I understand what he's personally trying to do. There is no trade market for him unless, say, within this week, in a non contact injury or a scrimmage or a week two exhibition game, some Super Bowl contenders running back goes down and they feel the need to make that deal. Ultimately,

I think Gordon will be in for the Chargers. It does help Gordon's case that here we go again with Austin Ekeler, who had some nice touches on the opening drive of the exhibition game against the Cardinals, and then inside the five yard line the ball gets yanked out of his hands. That's why Eckler didn't get more touches last year, because he can't keep the football off the ground. So that helped Gordon a little bit. But yes, I would ultimately treat that the same way, although I think

Gordon gets in before Elliott. Okay, what about Antonio Brown. This is a developing situation, Todd. Uh. First, it's the foot. Now it's listen. I'm not playing football, per Antonio Brown, he says, until I am allowed to use my old helmet, which the NFL has now banned. And so he didn't show up for the first preseason game, and we don't know really what the story is with him, given that the Raiders are the Raiders and that there is at least some question mark as do how well their offense

will do? Do you also let somebody else in fantasy deal with that headache? Yeah? I do. Yeah. Where Antonio Brown for the last on three four years has been the first wide receiver on the board, and even last year I talked to you at this time about the Antonio Brown dilemma. How do you are you that owner in the first round that selects Antonio Brown but by the time it wraps around to you in the second round?

Are there any RB one's left? Are you chasing RB one points the whole season because you took Antonio Brown where everybody else was taking RB one. Look, I try to stay away from rookies and I stay away from free agents because we we just there's the unknown. I to use a common term, I like to draft chalk in fantasy. I think later rounds or waivers are where you ultimately start taking some chances because there's less downside. I take the established the sample size and once played.

Look Levy on bells in this category to me too, like I don't know where he's going to be on third down? Until I'll know maybe by week three, week four. Where when he was in Pittsburgh, we knew where he'd be on third down, he'd be split out as a wide receiver on third down. With the Jets, I don't know where he's going to be, So how does that

impact his value? And with Antonio Brown, there are at least four, if not five, other wide receivers that right now look like they're worth more of a wide receiver one investment than Antonio Brown. Who correct me if I'm wrong you It seems like Antonio Brown is just making up any excuse he can to not play football anymore, totally totally for training camp at the very minimum, right, but I mean maybe maybe even more. Um, all right,

we close out with two more broad ones here. If I have if if I'm gonna snake draft twelve thirteen is let's say I'm somewhere in that area. Let's say I've got twelve thirteen or I've got eleven fourteen, whatever it is in a twelve team league. Uh, and then Travis Kelsey is available. I know that the tears of tight ends is probably there's probably Kelsey, two others and then everybody else. Um, are you a guy that believes

because he's that. And again, I know your general philosophy on tight ends, but in leagues where tight ends are still happening, uh, do you grab Travis Kelsey or do you or do you just not care about Titan at that point? Just wait for the masses of them. I owned him last year and I loved him, and I was in a non mandatory tight end league and I love him. I mean, everything sort of fits here that he's on a big time offense without Drownk, he's a big time tight end um and you know it basically

plays like he basically plays like a wide receiver. We've talked about that before in your show. Look, I wouldn't be drafting him in the second round, but I think some will overdraft him this year, probably more so him than Arts, because basically, as Gronk used to be overdrafted, Kelsey will now be overdrafted. And honestly, Gil Kelsey will probably give you more on the investment because Gronk didn't play sixteen games. He you know, was kind of a he played two and then miss one or play having

one big game and one as game. With Kelsey, it's more consistent. Although I've talked to you about this too. You sort of analyze each Chief's game. Is it a big Kelsey game? Or is a big Tyree Kill game? If Hill had been suspended, then Kelsey's value probably is in the second round and up with some of those

top five, top six wide receivers. Hill wasn't suspended, But yes, uh, Kelsey is likely worth the investment because he's attached to Mahomes and he stays healthier than gronked It Kelsey, Earth's Kittle probably the top three tight ends that I was referring to, probably probably, although Evan Angraham has a lot of value all of a sudden because the Giants lose a wide receiver every ten minutes. That's very, very true, every ten minutes, exactly on the clock. All right. Last thing,

then quarterbacks. And I've talked about this with previous guests, um the very few that I have talking about fantasy football, But yours is an opinion that that I value perhaps more than anyone's quarterback. There's so many of them. I drafted Jared Golf in the twelfth round for God's sakes last year, Todd, But there's Patrick Mahomes. You let somebody

else have him, and you just wait for quarterback. Yeah, you do, Um, if you're in a one quarterback league, and what I mean by that is you only start one quarterback. More and more leagues, even my personal league, use two quarterbacks or the super flex, which allows you to play a second quarterback or a running back, or a wide receiver or a tight end. That's why it's called super flex. You can play anything you want in

that spot. In two quarterback leagues or leagues with a super flex, the value of the quarterbacks in the draft are elevated. You can get Patrick Mahomes going in the first round. You can get Aaron Rodgers going in the second round. You get Drew Brees going maybe third round. That's going to happen. But in single quarterback leagues, UM, And I recently did a television feature with a friend down here for a station that I'm on in the

greater Tampa Bay area. He did a mock draft and I kept telling him wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait until all the other teams in the league picked a quarterback. You will still have value there. And then you take two. And he took back to back after everyone else had their quarterback. Big Ben and Philip Rivers. The downside is those guys give you no rushing yards or no rushing touchdowns. But we both know any week Roethlisberger and Rivers can put up four hundred yards, so the value is there.

Later in the single Quarterback League Todd Right from the Top Right Fantasy Ball podcast. In the Tod Right podcast, m