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We're going to turn to China right now in a very important trip for Janet Yellen, her second and nine months to China. It's going to be followed by a trip by the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and as we try to get a sense of following the readouts and some of the other information that we've seen, try to get a sense of what came of this trip.
We want to connect with Craig Singleton and have been looking forward to this conversation with us from the China program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, where he is Senior director. Craig, it's great to see you. You can read the readout, you can read the news coverage and get different percent I want yours. Was this a productive trip for Janet Yellen? And if so, what do we get for it?
Yeah?
No, thanks, Joe. I mean I think the short answer is that Secretary Yellen's trip accomplished very little. Secretary Yellen is many things, chief among them, and accomplished I think, respected economists, but she's not an enforcer, you know, She's not the person you send in when you want to throw down the hammer, so to speak. And Chinese leaders more or less dismissed out of hand all of her concerns, which doesn't particularly bode well I think for next steps.
I think, from my perspective, at least her trip sort of extends this illusion of constructive engagement between the two superpowers, but without actually addressing the core issues that are sort
of fueling today's tensions. And you know, separately, for its part, at least, you know, China was very keen to capitalize on this trip for propaganda purposes, using Secretary Yellen's visit to project calm to investors who are very concerned about China's overall economic health, health, and China's meager growth prospects.
So there are a lot of audiences here when it comes to the audience in Beijing, Craig, what does it mean for an American official to pay a visit and ask you to rethink the way you're managing your economy, in this case boosting its manufacturing capacity, saying hey, you guys really ought to worry about increasing domestic demand because that's not working as well for us. What's the reaction?
No, I mean, I think it's been pretty clear for some time now that China's leadership has very little to maybe no interest in enacting major structural reforms to address the country's current economic challenges. So what we're seeing right is a sort of back to the future approach in which China floods international markets with cheap, heavily subsidized goods to stimulate growth. And one major concern, for example, centers around electric vehicles. You know, China is intent on dominating
this emerging sector. They see it as critical to leading the next industrial revolution. And with China's EV market already very heavily saturated, you know, China's thinking about dumping EV's on global markets, including here in the United States, which would have a pretty serious impact on US automotive manufacturers,
US laborers here. And so while countries like Brazil and Argentina are getting ahead of Chinese dumping and raising tariffs to protect their industries, that the Biden administration has yet to do that, and I think that's really a major mistake and a real missed opportunity here.
Well, so what does that mean for tariffs going forward? If we're dumping evs or solar panels, whatever it is, Craig, this administration actually has not had a lot of sunlight between itself and the Trump administration when it comes to tariff although Donald Trump is talking about much higher levels if he were to be reelected. How about for the Biden White House?
Sure?
I mean think what we're seeing right now is a reflection not of US policy on China, but global pushback to China. You're seeing talk about raising tariffs and protective measures across Latin America, across Europe that's mostly in response
to Chinese behavior. I think what the corollary to me is when the Obama Biden administration was really trying to tackle Chinese hacking and cyber attacks against the United States, the Chinese out of the gate admitted those are activities they don't engage in, just like today they acknowledge and say that we don't engage in dumping and non market practices. And a great deal of time is spent negotiating a deal like that. Cyber deal, and then what do the
Chinese do. They go about and actually increase the number of cyber attacks against the United States with absolutely no punishment from Washington. So I think China's perspective is, let's buy some time here, get ourselves out of this economic chaos and crisis that we've created for ourselves, and do so at the expense of American workers and American companies and increasingly worldwide competition as well.
Spending time with Craig Singleton here on balance of power, what do you make of the proximity of this visit and Joe Biden's meeting with PRESIDENTI she I guess it was about a week ago at this point, Craig, were those companion conversations if you will, did that meeting with the President's need to come first?
Yeah, I mean they had a call, you know, President Biden and Shooting had a call last Monday. I think there's a strong effort to sort of portray the bilateral relationship as stable or improving, But I think it's sort of a fallacy here. You know, since she and Biden met in San Francisco last fall, the US intelligence community has confirmed the Chinese are actively meddling and interfering in
our election. Chinese state directed hackers have been identified as not just accessing, but seeking to compromise our critical infrastructure like our ports and electrical grids. Chinese Coast Guard vessels are ramming Philippine ships in the South China see knowing full well that the Philippines and the US are defense allies. Those are hardly I think reassuring. I think for me at least, you know the principal paradox of the Biden
Administration's China policy in its unintended consequences. Right, so far from mitigating Beijing's brashness, a lot of these recent diplomatic overtures having boldened. She and I think with Washington's attention diverted to Ukraine and Israel and to a number of impressing domestic matters, we're continuing to accommodate Beijing's aggression today and that really risks Chinese overreach tomorrow and maybe miscalculation or war.
Well, you know you mentioned miscalculation. Isn't it something We have diplomatic messaging like this between Janet Yellen and Beijing, the outreach that we see a personal visit while we're talking today about the Biden administration laying out billions of dollars to Taiwan's semiconductors so they can come here and build foundries in the United States. As we talk about banning TikTok, if it's not spun off from byte dance, Craig, how do you have all of these at.
Once expensive proposition? You really have to think about, can we wage industrial policy? Well, I think at least of the TikTok front. You know, the clock is ticking on this TikTok bill. You know, despite passing overwhelmingly in the House, Senate leadership, particularly Senator Maria Cantwell, is not even scheduled a hearing, let alone a vote on the legislation, and in the meantime, TikTok's lobbying team, which is the largest of any Chinese company in Washington, is aggressively moving to
kill this bill. I think there's you know, there is really though, next to nothing from stopping a bold national security focused senator from attaching the TikTok bill to a must pass piece of legislation like the National Defense Authorization Act that would absolutely ruffle some feathers here in DC. But at the end of the day. I'm not sure senators can run or be perceived as being weak on
China during an election year. And President Biden has already given them top cover by saying I'll sign this thing the second it hits my desk.
Well, that's true. Are senators hearing the right pick? You mentioned the lobbyists and managed to snuff out this story for a good year in Washington. Somehow it came back. This gets a new breath of life in the House. Senators have been briefed by the White House, They've had classified security briefings on this graig or they hearing what they need to.
I think they are. No one that I'm aware of. No member of Congress has walked out of those intelligence briefings saying TikTok's not a threat. I think what they do sort of disagree on is whether this proposal legislation which seeks a forced divestment, not a ban, a forced divestment of chokers, is the way to go. And I think that there's some discussion about whether the bill needs
to be expanded in terms of scope. And I think ultimately those efforts, a lot of them which are being championed by TikTok's lobbying team are aimed at killing the bill, making it too big so that it fails. I think in this case is narrow, it's focused. It's been reviewed and drafted in partnership with the Department of Justice to ensure that it can stay and court challenge and there certainly would be one. But at the end of the day,
we're approaching a consequential election in a few months. The intelligence community has made clear that TikTok is the most important tool that the Chinese have to influence public opinion. It's time to a.
Bank you, Craig Singleton. Great to see you, Craig, Thank you for joining here on a Monday, Senior director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Where you can join us. Now search Bloomberg Global News. You'll find our live feed. You can even back it up to hear the last interview if you wanted talk about on Eclipse Day. I suspect that the nation's capital will come to a bit of a halt a couple of hours from now when the eclipse happens. We're going to speak a little later this hour with Julie Fine, who's
not in Washington, but in the Zone of Totality. Has anyone made an album called that yet? Zone of Total? Is there a song Zone of Totality? Wouldn't that be forthcoming? We'll connect with Julie where apparently people are flying from all over the country to be part of this as we assemble our panel now on the day that Donald Trump makes his announcement on abortion. This has been teased since the beginning of last week. Didn't know if he'd
go for six weeks, maybe fifteen in the end. None of the above, avoiding taking a stand on a national band pointing to the States. Here's Donald Trump in a video released a short time ago.
My view is now that we have abortioning where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, The States will determine by vote or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land.
In this case, the law of the state, the state Land. Donald Trump from earlier today, he promised an announcement on truth's social last night, and there we have it. Our panel today, our signature panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano back together again, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, what do you think if you're Joe Biden, this is good news. Correct. You can keep running the ads you already made. You can make abortion the same issue that you have been
framing it since the beginning of this campaign. What do you think?
Oh? I agree. This is what we call a non announcement announcement. And he shouldn't have been forecasting that we should expect so much from his non announcement announcement because he heightened expectations and then of course let them drop because what he's saying is that nothing is going to change.
It will still be up to the states. And just as we know electorally, the still being up to the states is what we've had since the Dobbs decision, and that has helped Democrats, so they've got to be celebrating in the campaign over there for Joe Biden at least a little bit, knowing that they don't have to remake these commercials.
Well, I mean, you know, and I say that facetiously. Then again, Rick, maybe you're going to tell me that this is the other way around. If he had reached for six or fifteen or twelve weeks that is, and talked about a national band in any specific way, he would have handcuffed himself to a policy.
Right, what do you make of this just depends on who he was trying to make happy. I mean, if he was trying to play to the bass and wanted to keep them excited about this issue, then he would have said that there are a lot of good proposals
like Lindsey Graham's on a national bill. And he could have said that, you know, there are legitimate debates to be had around the tie, and maybe even had suggested fifteen weeks or something that has become a bit of a safe harbor, like Governor Younkin tried to do in Virginia last election year. So there are a lot of
options he could have taken. I think he took the one that was going to get him the most blowback from his base, and we see that from Lindsey Graham and from Mike Pence today, which is, hey, wait a minute, we never said this was just up to the states, and so now he's got exactly the opposite of I think what he really wanted, which was to be able to.
Have it both ways.
And at this stage, no Democrats going to think this is a great idea to have Donald Trump protecting your moortion rights, and no Republican is going to be satisfied with his answer, So.
I'd say, yeah, why even go there? To your point, Rick, Mike Pence just tweeted, this is a long tweet, by the way, I didn't know you could tweet this many characters. President Trump's retreat on the right to life is a slap in the face to the millions of pro life Americans who voted for him in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Rick, he can't lose evangelicals over this, can he?
Yeah? He can.
In fact, Susan B.
Anthony released a similar announcement right after he posted his video, and they represent millions of right to life voters and they are completely aghast at the president's decision. Look I mean, he owns getting rid of Roe v. Wade, he might as well embrace it, take what he can out of it.
It does show, I would say, if I'm reading the tea leaves that they know the polls that you know Genie talks about all the time, which is abortion can get Democratic horror voters and swing women in suburbs excited. And they're trying to put some air out of that tire. But I think they just added gasoline to the flames.
It's incredible, so interesting to think of the way this day is turning for these two candidates. Then Jennie Joe Biden is in Madison, Wisconsin, in a college town, talking about forgiving student loan debt, and it appears, based on the way this would all work or not work, that he can carry this for the duration of the campaign. So you've got abortion and student loan debt at the top of the stump speech here for Joe Biden. He's obviously got Israel and a number of other issues that
are still dogging him. But when it comes to domestic policy, these are two that you might consider in his favor. How do you look at it?
Yeah, you might, I mean, certainly abortion I think student loan is a bit tougher for Joe Biden. He's going to say it, he's going to run on it. Nobody if indeed he's able to push this through with this second try, it's not going to be felt in time for the election, which may be a good thing if it's overturned. So, you know, I think that's more of
a mixed bag on the campaign trail. And you know, I would just say that a real problem for Donald Trump to go back to that for a minute on the abortion issue, is here is somebody who has made his name saying I am not a politician, I am not part of the you know, the swamp that is Washington, d C. And yet what do we have here today somebody who's trying to play both ends against the middle. This is Donald Trump trying to be the poll and he is not doing it very successfully. He's getting blowback
from all sides. And that is something else the Biden campaign can use, because as much as we want to talk about positive things, both campaigns can use to their advantage. This campaign is going to be about the negative about the other guy. Nobody likes either one of these guys enough to vote for them, but they're voting against the other guy and abortion and Donald Trump as a regular old politician is not a good thing for Donald Trump. And the campaign's going to use.
That just quickly. Genie, you spend time with students all day. You're not hearing anything any hopefulness about this announcement today. This is you know, earned once when it comes to this issue. Show me what you got, Joe Biden, what are you hearing?
Yeah, we don't hear much about it because they've heard so much talk about it. They want to see action. Without that action, these young people are paying. And you know this well, Joe, because you have a son who will.
Be going to college.
It's almost sensive and yeah, exactly, and I've got one in myself, and you know it's expensive and these kids have no relief. It is a travesty in our system. But it's not won. Any president, forget about Joe Biden can resolve on their own. It requires Congress, and we don't see a Congress that's going to act on this.
Rick, what do you think of the big fundraiser over the weekend we talked about Radio City Music Hall for the three Democratic presidents. It was Biden Obama Clinton, a new record week goes by Donald Trump tops that by a lot, fifty point five million dollars, the biggest event we've seen of its kind at a billionaire's mansion in Palm Beach. Was this just about making a point or does it actually help his campaign?
Oh?
I think it absolutely helps his campaign. And part of what helps his campaign is he's making a point and he needs the money.
That's actually number one.
And when you can write almost nine hundred thousand dollars checks into a political campaign and you've got a bunch of billionaire buddies, then you would expect to have this kind of an event. And kudos to the Trump folks for pulling it off. It's not easy, and they did it with a lot less negative attention than the Biden twenty five million dollar contributions in New York City.
But they're going to need that cash.
They're still lagging behind the Biden armada of the DNC, his packs, and his campaign, so they're playing catchup. But they caught up a lot of ways this weekend.
Huh, fascinating, genie, Is Joe Biden going to try to top him?
Now?
What can we do here? In one weekend.
Oh yeah, I think he's gonna try. I don't know if he'll get there, but you've got to feel good if you're the Biden campaign. The fundraising aspect, unlike the polls, is in his favor. Still, he has a you know, the small donors to go back to Donald Trump's billionaire friends are you know now they are cut out of this thing, at least legally unless they're going to go
to the super pack. So it's a problem for Donald Trump not to mention, he's got to pay off a lot more lawyers than Joe Biden does at this point.
They're going to be back next hour. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo our signature panel on Balance of Power. You couldn't have a Monday without them. I'm Joe Matthew on this eclipse day in Washington. We don't get the zone of totality here. We're off to the side. I guess kind of like New York City is. We're going to get what is it, We get like a two thirds something. It'll get kind of dark, it'll feel like dusk here for a moment. No one's traveling here to see the eclipse.
People are traveling, though, it's a place is like Texas to be a part of this. They're spending a bunch of money on air planes to get there. They're spending money on Mexican food in Dallas when they arrive. That's where we find Julie Fine, Texas bureau chief for Bloomberg, in the middle of this all can't find a place to park or a place to eat. From what I understand, Julie, is this all worth it for you? What if you
don't see the what if the weather doesn't cooperate. This whole travel aspect confounds me.
Well, it's worth it for me because I'm here.
But as for somebody, Yeah, you don't have to travel.
Right, I don't have to go anywhere. I just have to walk outside, work, put on the glasses and look up. I think for somebody that's coming here, there will be you will see something. You will absolutely see something. It may not be absolutely perfect, but it'll be dark, it'll be dusk for a little while. I think it's an event, and I think people are looking at it that way
unless they're really specifically into the science of it. A lot of people made a weekend here in Dallas, which is a very easy thing to do.
So I think for.
People that came, while it may not be perfect, it made for a nice couple of days. It certainly made a nice couple of days for Texas. You've got econ. I miss saying that this brought in more than four hundred million dollars.
For the state.
There is apparently, according to the mayor, four hundred thousand people in the city of Dallas right now. So a lot of people head into Texas this weekend.
Now, I don't know what. By the way, I'm asking about weather. I see, you've got what seventy four degrees now, you're partly sunny today. You could still pull this off, right Yeah.
I mean we're watching the forecast as they come minute by minute. Sure it's a little bit cloudy, but they're saying absolutely, do not lose hope. Yes, it's definitely a little bit cloudy. It is not perfect conditions. But I mean, whether the weather forecasters and meteorologists are saying, you know, do not lose hope on this.
Four hundred thousand did you say in town?
Yeah, the mayor estimated I received an email yesterday the mayor estimated four hundred thousand people in the Dallas area, and I don't forget we've got four work and we've got the surrounding suburbs around here. But look at a super Bowl, Joe. I mean a stadium hole one hundred thousand people, the largest stadium, so you see a bunch of people come in for that. That is not four hundred thousand people. So just to kind of show you how many people are around, that's a really good example.
So Texas already won, and the states in between. This thing's gonna arc all the way up across. If you're with us on YouTube, we're showing you the zone of totality all the way up through Maine. Does it have a festive feel? I mean, you're nothing but sprawl down there in Dallas, right, Can you even tell that everyone's there?
Oh, you can tell everyone's here for sure. There are people.
So it's a mob scene.
It's a mob scene. Yeah, it's very Yeah, it's an obscene. You can definitely sense that people are here. I mean a lot of schools are closed. Some people are really treating this as a snow day, so yeah, you can certainly feel that this is going on. I mean I got in here to park this morning, I'm like, Wow, this is the easiest day I've ever had parking. So yes, people are definitely very into the eclipse.
All right, you got your glasses? Are they easy to find? I? Actually, you know, by the way, I have big apologies to Craig Singleton. I probably made everyone feel bad because I didn't you know, I was going to be too cool to wear glasses. I'm going to encourage all of our guests. But they're clip.
Oh absolutely glasses.
You've got them handy.
Yeah.
Well, I was so worried there were going to be no glasses. I ordered for the office like three months ago.
I took a poll.
How many of you were going to be here?
I ordered?
Yeah, you can get You can get glasses pretty much all over the place. I was in Target yesterday. They still had glasses. There were tents on the street. I think it was selling glasses. You can get glasses, get that.
Yeah, you can't find them anywhere around here. I even went to the library over the weekend. It had been a long time since I had tried that. Can we see the sun on YouTube? We have a sun cam. There's an eclipse cam here, Julie. I don't know if we can show it there. You go. I never thought i'd share a box with the sun before, Julie, thank you. Don't stare at the eclipse without your glasses. Our Texas Bureau chief in the throes of activity on this eclipse day,
I'm Joe Matthew without a pair of glasses. But Kaylee Lines will join the conversation next. We've got a lot to talk about on Balance of Power. Only here on Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Froudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where we are not sadly in the path of totality today for the eclipse is Wisconsin in the path of totality, because that's where President Biden.
Is going to send his pointing. I guess he'd have something to look at there, if not total the zone of totality. I feel like there needs to be an album recorded and think you'd make a lot of money right now. I've heard so much about this. We spoke with our own Julie Fine in the zone of totality to the south where Kaylee, it's cloudy today.
That's a big bummer. Yeah, So I guess we'll get to see if President Biden experiences the eclipse or to a degree in Wisconsin. But of course he's there with a very specific message today, Joe, and that is that he would like to provide more student loan relief to the Americans who are saddled with that debt.
And here you thought that this was not happening, remembering the Supreme Court shot down the first attempt to do this. Now, Kaylee, it's a plan B. We're talking about as many as twenty six million Americans. The question is will it work. That remains a question, and it could for the balance of this campaign. And that's where we start today with Jordan Fabie and Bloomberg White House reporter is with us now for more on this. Jordan, it's good to see you.
What makes this different than the first one? Is is it the more strict criteria? How's the White House going about this?
It's still quite broad based, Joe, but the White House has tried to make it more targeted in order to pass legal muster. So they've targeted groups like borrowers whose balances exceed their original principles. Borrowers who might qualify for other federal programs have again enrolled. And so the hope is that by tailoring it a little more narrowly, they will be able to pass muster. But we'll have to see if the courts agree with that approach.
Yeah, and of course we'll hear from the president about this this afternoon. He's going to be speaking in Madison, Wisconsin, where of course the University of Wisconsin is and that was also one of the areas in the Wisconsin primary that we just saw earlier this month in which he struggled with the uninstructed vote. A lot of young voters, as we have seen in college towns all across the Democratic primary states, are voicing protest over his policy surrounding
Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza. Is this give them something so you can try to get them back, knowing they're upset with you over Israel, try to make some progress on the student loan front.
Yeah.
As you mentioned, Kaylee, these college towns are sort of ground zero for all of President Biden's problems. You mentioned the Israel, Gaza War. This student loan issue is a big issue for young voters, gen Z voters who we need to show up in November. I think we had pullings showing them falling away from President Biden after they
strongly supported him in twenty twenty. He's going to need voters in these college towns like Madison State College in Pennsylvania to name a couple to come out for him in November, and so he's starting today.
You know.
The risk is that he'll go to Madison and you know, I'm sure there'll be protesters there, but the white hoping that their message isn't drowned out and that this appeal breaks through to those voters.
Some impressive fundraising numbers. I'm sure you saw Jordan for March ninety million dollars for the Biden campaign and for the DNC. He ends the month with one hundred and ninety two million dollars cash on hand, which is more than double what Donald Trump and the Republican Party of the RNC have in their equivalent accounts here. It's interesting
to me the money game that we're talking about. Donald Trump's getting a lot of attention for setting a record over the weekend with a fifty million dollar in one night, doubling what Joe Biden managed when he was on stage with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. How would you frame the money contest right now if that's in fact what we should be paying attention to.
The fifty million dollar haul is impressive, but it also illustrates how much ground President Trump has the makeup against President Biden. Biden's war tress that is more than double of what Trump says. And so why does this matter? Look ahead to later this summer, going into the fall, when the election really starts to become the focus for people.
Biden's going to have a lot more money at this point to open those offices in battleground states, to get people out knocking on doors, handing out materials, and also to flood the airwaves with advertisements. One of Biden's biggest problems is that he's done all these things in his first term, whether it's the Inflation Reduction Act, whether it's this Act student Loans today, and he's not giving a
lot of credit for it among voters. So the advertising could help that breakthrough to people who haven't really been tuning in. So those are the ways that you could look for Biden's kind of outpaced Trump, but money isn't everything. You know, Trump was outraised by Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen and he went on to win. So while it's important, it is not the decisive factor.
All right. Jordan Fabian, who covers the White House for us here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for joining us. And of course, as Jordan, there was talking about some of these college towns and the issues resonating there, including
policy over Israel. We know, Joe that the White House has been pushing and pushing more aggressively, so perhaps Israel to do more in terms of humanitarian aid, protection of civilians, and that really has been the heart of the debate over an operation in Rafa, that city where over a million Palestinians have sought refuge. We just just get a statement from Netanyahu about Rafa again. He says there is a date for that. We just don't know what the date is.
Yeah, it's really something. As you mentioned, they were pulling out of certain areas to regroup, and that did give us a sense that something might be about to happen here. The administration has been adamant about this. No invasion at all without a credible plan to evacuate civilians. I'm not sure that we see any reference to that here. It will happen, says NET and Yahoo. There is a date. We did hear from the White House over the weekend
on this as well. When it comes to our deteriorating relationship.
Yeah, this was something that Admiral John Kirby, who of course as a spokesman for the NSC, was asked about on ABC's this week and this is what he said.
We have been increasingly frustrated. And again that was a core message that the President delivered the Prime Minister of Netniao in their phone call this week this past week. If they've got to do more, they've got to make changes now. The Prime Minister assured the President that he would do that. We've seen some announcements in those early hours. That's welcome. We got to see more. We've got to see it over time.
So for more.
We're joined now by Carmeil Arbitch. She is Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs. Kmeil, always great to have you with us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. As we hear from Admiral Kirby there the idea that they've got to see more. They think they will see
it over time. How much are we seeing already, not just in terms of the fact that there has now been another corridor open for humanitarian aid and res For example, they have the military has taken action with those who were responsible for the World Central kitchen strike that resulted
in deaths of seven of those humanitarian aid workers. Are we seeing Israel actually come around to the US's way of thinking, here are these relatively small steps that don't actually fundamentally change too much in terms of their policy.
Yeah, thanks so much. I think we are at a fundamental change point in this war. It's not just that Israel has pulled out of fun units, It's that they have pulled the majority of their troops out of Gaza as they prepare to move to the next phase of war, which will likely be more pinpointed attacks. So I think we are seeing a really significant shift here. Now how
that plays out is yet to be seen. I think on the one hand, you have Nattaya, who's speaking to domestic audiences asserting over and over again that there will be an operation in Rafa, which many in Israel are now starting to doubt, while at the same time pulling out troops to prepare for what could be a breakthrough in cease fire talks as part of Hamas's demands. So we're really at an inflection point in this war right now where we're seeing a shift in Israel's operation.
Well, should we doubt whether this invasion takes place? Now that we have this statement? Karmel, how do you read what Netanyahu is saying only suggesting that there is a date.
I think the question is what that operation is going to look like. So twenty out of the twenty four battalions of Hamas's military have been dismantled, and the four that remain are in Rapha. So the question for Israel is what they are going to do, how and when
they are going to go into Rafa. Right now, as I had mentioned, the ceasefire talks are really very close, and there is a huge amount of international pressure, including from the White House, which is exerting pressure now in a way that it had not been throughout this war. We've seen a huge shift in US public opinion and thinking about this war and then how the administration is approaching it. And with that now we're starting to see a shift within the Israeli government as well.
Yeah, in part of the statement we got from net Niahu, not just the suggestion that there is a date for an entry into Rafa, he also said he has gotten a report on those talks in Cairo. He says, we are working all the time for the achievement of our goals, first of all, the return of all of our hostages and Carmeil. As you talk about the international pressure on net Nyahu and the Israeli government right now, it's also
worth noting there is domestic pressure as well. Once again, over the weekend we saw thousands protesting calling for a deal that would secure the release of those hostages. How should what's happening inside Israel a factor into our thinking about Netanyahu's likely moves as we move forward.
It's very important. Ultimately, all politics are local, and so you see Nasagna who continually speaking to both sides, both to his far right government who he's trying to show muscle too, and that he will not coward international pressure, and at the same time is responsive to the thousands of Israelis we're taking to the streets to demand the release of more than one hundred and thirty hostages. Every day that passes, the number of hostages that are killed grows.
It is now believed that about half of those hostages are still alive, and so every day the pressure mounds.
I'm glad you mentioned that because there was a terrifying story in the Washington Post this morning about families parents of two boys in this case, who they thought two sons were being held hostage, hoping for their release for the last six months, only to learn that they had died, either during their captivity or as they were dragged into Gaza Carmel. To what extent are families in Israel losing hope?
Yeah, there is a huge amount of pain in Israel right now, not just over the hostage situation, but that Natagne who has yet to deliver on many of the fundamental promises he made about this war that includes dismantling Hamas, and while he's made significant military gains, Hamas still remains in power in Gaza, the hostages have not been released.
There is a huge amount of pain and suffering. More, the two hundred and fifty Israeli soldiers have been killed in this war in Gaza, and many Israelis feel that they are neither. They're not winning, and so Natanya who is under pressure to prove that that's not the case, while at the same time to try to retain his position of power, which is becoming increasingly challenged.
There is still, as you have really alluded to, a ongoing threat from Hamas. There are still battalions that have not been dismantled. They're also Carmel, though might be more of a threat from Iran directly, not just from an Iranian proxy like Hamas. We have heard in recent days that Israel's military is prepared to respond to a scenario that could develop if Iran retaliates for the strike on the embassy in Damascus earlier this month. What could we
see from Iran? Do you think we could actually see some form of retaliation from Iran directly rather than this being done through proxies as we've seen in the past.
Yeah.
I think the stakes around Iranian retaliation right now are incredibly high for two reasons. One, the timing is going to matter a lot because the Israelis and Hamas are so close to a ceasefire agreement. Anything that Iran does right now could potentially derail that. So that's the first thing to keep an eye on. The Second thing that we're looking at is whether or not Iran is going
to escalate. There have been dozens upon dozens of attacks dominating from Hezbalah, also on US assets across the region, and similarly Israeli attacks on Iranian assets, including those that have increasingly targeted the IERGC and the Iranians directly. And we've seen that throughout the war, but up until this point, it's really been at a relatively low simmer. It's been kind of this medium medium heat, if you will. So the question now for Roun is whether or not they're
going to increase that temperature. Most likely what we're going to see is some kind of attack on Israeli American assets overseas. I think the scenario in which they would attack on Israeli soil remains pretty low, but would mark a significant escalation in this conflict.
So where does this actually play out then? Is it in Syria itself? Are we at c car Meal or does that have yet to present itself.
It really has yet to present itself, and the Iranians have many options, and that includes everything from embassies or Israel's diplomatic presence overseas in countries as are reaching in Latin America or Europe where the Israelis have already put their staff on alert. We could also be looking at US assets and the seas, and the US has of course been working to tamp down on Huti attacks and
has done so relatively successfully in recent months. So we could see really in any of these arenas around really planning up its rule and going after again either the US or the Israelis directly.
Carmel, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming back to see us from the Atlantic Council, carmeil arbit on a day that we have learned, according to the Associated Press and now confirmed in a statement by Benjamin Ett Yaho Kayle, that a date has been set for the invasion of Rafa. There's no sense, obviously, based on this conversation, when that will be or in what form that it will take.
No, all he says is that it will happen in that victory for Israel requires an entry into Rafa and the elimination of the remaining hamaspittalions there. So it becomes question, Joe, of between now and whatever date ultimately is set for this operation, what can be done for the million plus civilians in RAFA, can they be successfully move given aid protected as the US would like to see.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
As Janet Yellen wraps the big trip for second to China in nine months, and it's interesting as each member of the administration kind of delivers their own message here Kayley creating a composite that Beijing can react to. In this case, though, urging our competitor to rethink their economic strategy is an interesting way to go about it. Yeah.
Well, her primary concern is that because China is dealing with kind of a multifaceted you in their own economy, including the property sector, which has been really weak for some period of time, they've been investing a lot in their industrial base into manufacturing and potentially creating if you listen to the Treasury Secretary's concerns, more supply than the world is actually going to be able to absorb everything. The message that she brought the question is was heated? Will it be heated?
Well, that's true. Whether we're talking evs or solar panels. This has a direct impact on our industries here. It's not lost on us that today the administration announcing billions for Taiwan's semiconductor to come here to start building foundries.
Yep, another fab they're planning in Arizona. All of that, of course, is part of a big push we have seen in semiconductors and chips in particular. But it all speaks to this idea that the US is not trying to decouple from China. They are trying to diversify the supply chain, including bringing more here at home, while also normalizing this relationship simultaneously trying to protect national security interest
at the same time. It all is a very difficul picture of that Jenny Yellen and others in the administration face as they try to navigate this relationship. And we want to go now to someone who knows this relationship quite well. He's Lieutenant General Robert Walsh, Academy Securities Advisory Board member. He's also a former commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command General. Great to have you
here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. You helped develop the twenty eighteen National Military Strategy and National Defense Strategy in which China is defined as a strategic competitor. This is language that we hear a lot. What is your assessment right now of how the US is treating China in this strategic competition? What exactly does that mean?
I think the relationship has certainly changed a lot from the days where we considered them a strategic partner. I think if you look at Secretary Yellen's visit and President Biden's call with President Jijinping last week, we've seen that
the competition is very clear. And now I think the US administration is really trying to thread a needle by maintaining relationships, trying to improve relationships with China because they kind of dipped off for a while there, but try to improve those relationships, but still try to protect US technology, and specifically, the Biden administration would like to be a leader in the green energy area in the globe, and
they see China rapidly moving into that area. You mentioned EV's is one, and so that's an area is the Biden deministration tries to create jobs in both the semiconductor industry and also the EV industry and the green energy. They see China's ability to over manufacture and increase production along with state owned enterprise subsidies to be able to reduce prices and potentially flood the market and caused damage to the ability of US to manufacture here in the US.
Well, just to get back general to where Hayley started here, let's go back to your in twenty eighteen. That designation strategic competitor that you came up with in that piece of work has been repeated ever since by administrations, including this one. We've heard Joe Biden say more than once that China is someone we want to have a competition
with and not a conflict. We've seen some interesting footwork around jargon here, from a decoupling to I can't even remember what some of the other ones were at this point, back where you were in twenty eighteen. If you looked at the relationship today, how would you have described it?
Then?
I would describe it that China's continue on the path that they've been on. How they've vocalized that or put that out from an information standpoint is different. And back then when we really started to see them come online
is what we considered as strategic competitor. They had just come out with Made in China twenty twenty five, which was a hey blueprint or strategy that laid out how China wanted to dominate the globe in technology, listed in areas like AI, quantum computing, robotics, into semiconductors, those sort of things that we saw them saying that they're going
to lead and lead the globe in. They kind of pulled that off the table and became kind of quiet for a while because it got a lot of adverse publicity around the globe that China was going to dominate and put others out of business. And since that time, we've seen them really march along that path. And now one of the things I think we're definitely seeing is the Biden administration seeing that we talk about you know,
high tech capabilities, dual use capabilities such as semiconductors. We can look at how they dominate areas in rare earth minerals, some of the things that make batteries like those type of materials dominate those areas that not only can have a military impact on the US. But now we're seeing more of a competition on the economic side. And I think the real wake up call is coming is the US military into Department Defense, has really studied China's military growth.
What we're seeing is the Chinese Party is really leading much more towards economic dominance across the road through their Belt Road initiative.
Well, I'm glad you brought up the military aspect of this relationship as well, because, of course, when Biden and Chijhin paying had their summit out in California in November, part of that was trying to normalize military to military communications, which had stopped for a period of time, And as Yellen was in China, we got news that the US and China had resumed a dialogue basically preventing an inadvertent clash.
How high, general, in your mind, is the risk of an accident of some kind of miscalculation while we're still working on normalizing that communication. How much room for a potential error, perhaps very significant error is there now?
I think it's a great, great point, Kaylee. They did begin those discussions effect. The first call came from President Biden ToJ in July twenty two and like you mentioned at the APEC summit, they had another discussion. It's really we have to keep the lines of communication open even as a competitor, which is completely different than we had with the Cold War with the Soviet Union. We always kept the lines of communication open so we don't have
misunderstanding of each other. Certainly in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, we see the Chinese military the PLA being very aggressive. Certainly around the Philippine Islands, we see that and the rook of having a misjudgment, whether it's you know, aircraft ships at sea, there's always that danger. And one of the things I think that also concerns US is the Chinese military has been very
aggressive in their actions. They have not been tested since nineteen seventy nine in a war with Vietnam, and we just are concerned that the rhetoric that comes out of the Chinese military that is almost sometimes that they're almost itching for a fight where the US is trying to have clear lines of communication open so we don't run into a situation like that.
You mentioned China's plans for twenty twenty five General it was in Air Force General Mike Minihan who just about a year ago was out with a memo that some reporters got their hands on, urging his officers to prepare for a conflict with China as soon as twenty twenty five. Will he end up looking right?
You know?
I think our perspective on that is as you weigh it all, you know, as we look at the framework we kind of use, is we use as dime as diplomacy, information, military and economic levers of power. Those are the things that kind of you can use as a national power to be able to try to coerce and compromise with a competitor. And I think in this case, if you really look at Gping in the Chinese Communist Party, the one thing they want to do is stay in power.
Staying in power means keeping their people happy, and I think economically that's the most important thing for them right now, is to try to lead the globe economically. So though we see that they put out the rhetoric that by twenty twenty seven they'd be ready to take Taiwan militarily, we certainly have to be ready, and the Biden administration is doing everything they can to try to deter anything
like that occurring. But at the end of the day, in the near term, though, they've got the capability that continues to grow and in many ways outpace our own
US military. What we're seeing though is I think they want to lead more globally, and that's why I think you see this discussion between the Biden administration, between jan and Yellen, with Commerce Secretary Raimondo, all going towards this economic area, because I think that's where we really see the Chinese trying to dominate, and they would do this strategically, be starting with things like you know in Africa, in in South America, in the Caribbean, those areas where you
can get these rare earth minerals, things like cobalt and lithium, and put them ahead in some of these high tech areas to include some of the green energy capabilities.
He's a board member at Academy Securities. Retired Lieutenant General Robert Walsh, It's great to have you with us in general. Thank you for your insights today. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com