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Now, Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Hope you had a good weekend as we pick up here essentially where we left off last week with an historic strike being staged now by the United Auto Workers. As we've been saying all three of the Big Three, and the language that we're hearing, the latest that we're hearing is not terribly encouraging about a path forward. Seth Harris is going to be with us in just a moment and has been prescient about
this whole situation so far. As now, the UA doubled President Sean Fain says no go to the latest offer from Stilantis.
They did have talks with all three over the weekends.
The Landist offering at twenty one percent pay raise, It's definitely a no go, he said on Face the Nation yesterday on CBS. Here's what else he said about what they're prepared to do.
We're prepared to do whatever we have to do. So the membership is ready. The membership is fed up. We're fed up with falling behind. It's been decades of falling behind, and especially this past decade in the most wealthiest times in the history of these companies. There is no excuse. These companies have made a quarter of a trillion dollars in the last ten years, twenty one billion dollars in the last six months alone, and our workers' wages and conditions have went backwards.
So questions now about to what extent this strike might be expanded in the days ahead, even as talks continue, and we're starting to see the ancillary impact with you threatened layoffs. For instance at GM at one plant that's not even being targeted in the strike, but they're not getting the stamped materials that they need to make the products that they're working on.
Here.
This is where Seth Harris comes in. Everything he has told us about this event has happened so far. Senior fellow at the Burn Center for Social Change at Northeastern University, the former top labor policy advisor to President Biden, former labor secretary to President Obama. Okay So we've got somebody who's been there and done that. Although Seth this does feel historic in its scale, and the language that we're hearing welcome back, by the way, makes us feel like
the sides are ever further apart. How do you see it on this Monday?
Well, Joe, it's great to be with you. I think we've got a good long way to go before we get to a settlement here. The parties are quite far apart on a number of issues. It's not just wages. We're all fairly tightly focused on the dollar figures for what kind of wage increase the auto workers will get over the next four years. But there's a longer list of very very important issues, one of them being the two tiered employment structure. Another is cost of living adjustments.
Another is whether temporary workers will become permanent workers. And also the union is demanding job security. So I think there's a long way to go in a number of places. We'll see the union ramp up the number of plants that it shuts down over the course of the next week, maybe longer, and then we're going to have to see if the companies move.
What's it like at the table right now when You've got a union president who's talking about not only a strike that's actively underway seth but one that could get worse and more expansive in the days ahead. This could take a lot of different directions here. What's the posture of the automakers when they're hearing this from the other side of the table.
Well, you know, it's an intriguing question how they are taking this in. They have moved on their wage offers, which is an indication that they know that the union is very, very serious about the strike, but they have not moved in a lot of other ways. And you know, I think there are sort of two models here, Joe. One is the UPS model, where the teamsters applied a tremendous amount of pressure, threatened to strike, prepared to strike, and UPS understood the moment, understood what was going on
with their employees, and they moved. They substantially revamped their relationships with their employees. On the other hand, we have the Hollywood studios who have completely mismanaged their labor relations, completely misunderstood the moment. They're trying to cut costs, cut employment, and frankly shift the cost of their business decisions onto their workers and both the writers and the actors have
said no way. So the question for the automakers is which of those two models are they going to follow? Are they going to modernize their employment relationships and try and cut a fair deal with the EUAW. Are they going to be as intransigent as the Hollywood studios have been. I think it's going to be interesting to see what happens as the UAW ramps up the pressure.
I like to ask you about that Hollywood action SETH, because we don't talk about it enough, and it's been going on a lot longer than this one. But we're reading now that we've got one hundred million dollar loss every week for Ford and GM as the strikes continue, knowing that number could get a lot higher, what makes you think that this could be protracted that doesn't usher in a deal anymore quickly? Here with the automakers or SETH, Are they thinking about a lockout?
Could that be the next move?
I think a lockout is unlikely, and the one hundred million dollar figure, I think assumes a much larger scale strike than we're seeing right now. What the union has launched is what they're calling a stand up strike, which is a hearkens back to the days of nineteen thirties when the union had sit down strikes, and that's how the union was born. So they're only striking three facilities, and that's causing a small number of layoffs, both in
those facilities and beyond. But you know, the companies are not really shut down. If you had a complete shutdown, then we would be looking at billions of dollars in costs over the course of a couple of weeks. I don't think we're going to see that much loss. We're not going to see that much loss in auto communities because most of the auto workers are still working and they're still paying their bills, they're still shopping, they're still paying their rent and mortgage. So I think the economic
impact right now is fairly limited. But the risk is tremendous as the union ramps up and both the companies and the union have to figure out how much cost they can bear. And you know that's how power is defined. How much cost can you bear, how much benefit are you going to get? How much risk are you willing to bear?
Twenty one percent pay raise offered by Stilantes interesting by the way that the automakers are putting their offers out publicly so people know what it is that's being rejected. As I said earlier, definitely a no go. The language from Sean Fain on twenty one percent. Do you have a number in your mind as the union I believe stands at thirty six percent? Seth, Is it somewhere between these two?
I don't. I don't know what the number is going to be. And what matters from the union's perspective is what contract will get an overwhelming ratification vote, a favorable ratification vote from the membership. Sean Fain was elected by just a few hundred votes, and he really needs to pull his union together around this contract. So he needs to get a vote of sixty sixty five percent something even north of that, to show that his members are
standing behind him and the Teamsters UPS negotiations. The UPS Teamsters voted eighty three percent for their contract. That's a sign that President O'Brien succeeded in getting them the deal that they wanted. Now we have to see a president Fain can negotiate a deal that his members are going to support enthusiastically.
Yeah, that's right. Talk to me more about what's happening in Hollywood.
Seth Harris, we saw Drew Barrymore pulling about face after she said she was putting her TV show back on. Now she's not after the backlash. Same thing happened just about an hour ago to Bill Maher, who was supposed to have his show back on HBO this Friday. Apparently that's not going to happen either. Following his explanation for that decision, he said, this has been going on a long time, didn't seem like any progress had been made. They've both been forced to back off those plans.
Seth. How long is this going to go for in Hollywood?
Boy, It's very hard to predict, you know. There are the writers started their strike in May, the actors started their strike in July, and act the writers are just getting back to the table. I don't think there have been any negotiations with the actors in quite some time.
I think that the studios just thoroughly misunderstand what's going on here, and we're not going to see shows getting produced, accept those that are produced or movies that are produced by independent producers who are not part of the trade association that's negotiating with SAG. AFTRA and the Writer's Guild. And let me say, Drew Barrymore and Bill Maher by pulling back their efforts to start their shows, did the
right thing. You don't want to cross a picket line and put yourself in conflict with your co workers and your friends in your industry. But at the end of the day, the studios are going to have to make some significant changes to the way they want to do business and the way they're currently doing business and let those workers, the actors and writers in on the profits that they're making. Now. They've made some bad business decisions.
They overinvested in streaming. There's a lot of streaming services right now. They're not making enough money off of that. But that's competition among the businesses. There's no reason the workers should have to subsidize that by giving up money, giving up jobs, and giving up opportunities.
So what's the cumulative effect here on A. Marria's view on organized labor seth Maybe I'm asking the wrong person, but I'm curious your thought on this. When they hear auto workers turning down a twenty one percent pay raise, when they see the situation happening in Hollywood, they don't have the shows that they were hoping to watch this fall. Does it come together before Americans in a way that makes organized labor appear broken?
I think the opposite is true. I think the increased worker activism and worker organizing we're seeing around the country has increased the popularity of the labor movement, the labor movement. Two thirds of Americans say they have a favorable view of the labor movement. Eighty eight percent of workers under the age of thirty say they have a favorable view of the labor movement. Two thirds of the workers under the age of thirty say they would like to have
a union in their workplace. Boy, that is really really good news for organized labor, and I think bad news for the corporate folks who are trying to sort of tarn the story against unions. I think that seeing activism, seeing unions fighting for their members and winning, is a successful strategy for the labor movement, and so far, you know, the public is wholeheartedly behind them, including the UAW.
Seth, It's great to have you back. He's helped us walk through this and I think we're going to need your help again. Seth Harris, the former I want to get it right this time. Deputy Assistant to the President Labor and Economy under President Biden, former Deputy Secretary of Labor and former acting you had every friendly business card possible between these two administrations during the Obama administration. He's now at Northeastern University Senior Fellow at the Burns Center
for Social Change. Seth, thank you as we assemble our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano join now Bloomberg Politics contributors on What he Is Day four, I guess, the third full day of this labor action. Genie, what do you think about what Seth just said. If unions are more popular than ever because of all of this, when does that add up to increased membership?
You know, I think we may see that going forward, depending on how this pans out. And of course, as you mentioned, the important strike going on in Hollywood, and you know, I think it is striking in addition to the polls that Seth mentioned, and I think that is
very good news for labor. Is the fact, if you look at our public officials, and I've been paying careful attention to their statements over the last several days, from Biden to Trump, the most popular public officials on all sides are standing with and trying to attract labor, and I think the reason is pretty simple. We are talking about record profits for CEOs and we are talking about workers on the line whose pay has not kept up
with inflation. It is not as simple with as that when you get to the bargaining table, of course, but that's the message the public is hearing. Forty percent pay increase for CEOs versus workers whose pay hasn't kept up with inflation. That is a message that is going to resonate with the public, and that means that the polls are supportive of where these workers stand.
Jeanie says, it's striking Rick.
That was pretty good, Genie, I don't know how you've always managed to do it.
When's the backlash? Though?
Potentially for these unions, at a certain point, you do reach the level of diminishing returns. Here, people's shows aren't on this fall. Maybe you can't get a car the way you want, or your car's price goes higher because of this, and maybe the cumulative effect leads to a recession. Does that blow back on the union ever?
You know, I think the cover over all of this is the politics of this right. You got to remember that it were the union voters who helped put Donald Trump up and become president in twenty sixteen in some of these key Midwestern states, and so they've been looking at options to being, you know, loyal to the Democratic Party. And I think what you see here is the potential for this strike and the emergence of time with the strike. In other words, the longer it takes, the worse it
is for Joe Biden. I don't think anybody disagrees with that, and potentially the better it is for Donald Trump. I mean, so Biden's efforts to try and promote unions in America may result in benefits to Donald Trump.
A lot more to come with our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino. Out of the Blocks on a Monday, with an apparent deal in the House on the budget among Republicans, can it last be? On the end of this program, we'll talk to Rick and Jeanie and have more from Capitol Hill.
Next.
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As the UAW auto wor strike enters day four today, there's talk of a deal here in Washington on funding the government. This is not a story that's going away anytime soon, certainly not before the end of the month when the fiscal year ends. The big question right now is does the government shut down at the end of this month or will there be a continuing resolution to stop gap bill that somehow gets us through the end of the month and buys a little more time to
negotiate here. By the way, everyone seems to think a shutdown we'll still be inevitable just later on in the year. But how about this headlining great work from Billy House and Eric wasson Bloomberg Congress reporters. McCarthy demands eight percent spending cup border wall to avert shutdown.
Hey, we've got a deal on something.
You know.
Of course, members of the Freedom Caucus have not been big fans of Speaker McCarthy, leading to this government fight. Interesting headline as well on the terminal as we seek to apparently Gate, the debt ceiling deal. Now, this was playing out on Sunday Morning television before we bring Rick and Jennie back in here. Kevin McCarthy on Fox talking to Maria Bartiromo about landing a deal here and avoiding a shutdown for political reasons.
A shutdown would only give strength to the Democrats, It would give the power to Biden. It wouldn't pay our troops, it wouldn't pay our border agents, more people would be coming across. I actually want to achieve something.
Right around that same time, Fox New Sunday, at least to phonic of course, whipping for Republicans in the leadership in the US House.
Well, we're in a very good place. I've been engaged in conversation with members as well as Speaker McCarthy over the weekend. We are working through this and I'm optimistic that we will continue to move the appropriations process forward, and that includes the dud Appropriations Bill, that also includes potentially a continuing resolution to ensure that we do not face a government shutdown.
Government funding fight.
Just round two of the debt ceiling brawl, I read on the terminal and that is basically what we're talking about here.
Right.
This was largely done earlier in the year when we avoid a default, but we're doing this again. Let's reassemble the panel with Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. What's your thought on the appropriations process this morning? Here, Rick, I see that ninety eight members of the House Democrats, the new Democrat coalition, this, according to Axios, off with a letter to Kevin McCarthy urging him to put the Senates
Bipartisan Appropriations Bill up for a vote. Does it sound like consensus around anything right now on Capitol Hill?
Well, I think we can ignore the Democrats right now. They're probably just taking advantage politically. Their ability to affect change right now is pretty limited.
I think what you're hoping for.
Is that the Republican Caucus actually gets together. If you could get ninety Republicans in a room who would actually agree on a way forward on this saying, it'd be a significant accomplishment. I think what we heard over the weekend, you know, with the Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus, two dimetrically opposite groups, right, one tends toward more centrist policies,
the other tends toward more off the cliff policies. And they got together and said, look, let's put a little mini bus together, you know, a group of agencies that we can fund. They did the eight percent cut that you described non defense spending and said we as a group would be willing to support this. The problem is there are three other caucuses within the Republican Party, the five Families, Remember were reminded of them all the time we get into this kind of trouble. Well, they haven't
been heard of yet. So I was really happy to hear the speaker, as you played the clip over the weekend, say I want to avoid a shutdown because some in his caucus think a shutdowns good politics. He is smart enough still as a politician to know that that's only going to give more power to the Democrats and make Republicans look like they can't manage the federal budget. So there seems to be new pressure, new momentum in trying to avert a shutdown. And I think it's pick them right.
You know, you can take the Senate bill, you can pass the House bill, but either way it gets then into us a good conversation about putting a spending package together that keeps you from having to shut down the government.
Genie.
At least the Phonic says, Republicans in the House are in a good place. Rick just mentioned the Main Street Cox, the House Freedom Caucus coming together to essentially endorse this deal that Kevin McCarthy is promoting. He says they're going to vote on this on Thursday. But it wasn't the Main Street Caucus we had to worry about originally, Right is can the House Freedom Caucus stay together on this?
You know?
Apparently not. I mean, just in the hours after they released this, you had ten members come forward and say they weren't going to support it, including Marjorie Taylor Green, who's not a part of the Freedom Caucus, she's part of McCarthy's leadership. I don't know what a least Stephonic is thinking when she describes this as a good position for the House Republican leadership. It is anything. But she's very optimistic. Apparently God bless her. She's also a New Yorker.
But the reality is what they are talking about ISDA It is dead on arrival in the Senate and they are going to waste all this time, all this energy. I don't know best case scenario they hold these various families as describes them together, they pass this thing, it is dead on arrival in the Senate. It will not get the signature of the President. Even if it passed. And let's not forget if you are serious about curtailing spending, if you are serious about the deficit and debt we
have overspent in recent years. This is a nightmare because it is not going to help the situation. But the reality is most of these people in the Freedom Caucus are not serious about this. This is performative because if they were serious, they would be thinking about things, and they would be working with people who also have power in Congress to move this through in a productive way. So yeah, Alas, Stephonic very optimistic this weekend, but I'm not sure why.
Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what.
Ron DeSantis not terribly optimistic. He's backing those members of the Freedom Coucress who say go ahead and shut it down. And Kevin McCarthy was asked about that as well in his interview on Fox Rick.
Here's what he said.
Look, I served with Ron DeSantis. He's not at the same level as President Trump by any shape or form. He would not have gotten elected without President Trump's endorsement. And so I believe our best step forward pass our appropriation bills, so we're stronger.
With a swipe.
Ron de Santis on the campaign trail as well. Should the governor of Florida wait it into this, Rick or does he end up with egg on his face?
Yeah? No, I don't get it.
I mean, the one thing about running for president if you're in Congress is it means you don't have to weigh into this stuff. You know, you would think the governor would be smart not to get into the middle of this morass, and especially because you have no idea how it's going to turn out. And so yeah, I
can't imagine. I mean, like, I've advised a lot of candidates who ran for national office, and I didn't ever have one single moment where I said, hey, it's a good thing to jump into this, you know, Internestine political warfare in Washington, because somehow that's going to mean more to your primary voters. Now he's wrong about this. He's only going to spend more of his political capital. And something that doesn't isn't worth anything.
That's pretty tough stuff there.
He's looking for any opportunity to break out the genie and the latest polls that we saw for the weekend. There was another one for CBS show Ron De Santis, and some polls back in single digits. Here, I don't want to open a whole new front on the campaign trail, but specific to his candidacy, weighing in on the Tubberville blockade and support winging in on the Freedom Caucus, support of a government shutdown, is this his final stand?
You know, it very well might be because also over the weekend you had Donald Trump out un meet the press with Kristin Welker. Congratulations to Kristin Welker, another woman leading a Sunday show.
And what was he doing.
He was talking like he is already the candidate for the Republicans. He's pivoting to the general. So you know, it may be a last stand for Ronde Santis. And ouch the swipe that McCarthy took, I've served with them and he's not up to par I mean, you know, it was ugly all around for Ronde Santis this weekend, not something he should have weighed in on. And you know, just getting hit down by the House speaker got less.
Than a minute.
Rick Will Kevin McCarthy then be the undoing of the DeSantis campaign.
No, I think the DeSantis campaign is being undone by DeSantis himself. Nobody can take that award away from him.
Well, that's saying something there. It is from a master in campaigning, Rick Davis, Dany Shanzano. We thank you as we turn to news next about this prisoner swap with Iran. This is highly controversial, but one that coincides with President Biden's arrival at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, and of course precedes a speech and only from a President Biden, but of course the leader of Iran at that event as well.
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Important news as President Biden begins his visit to the United Nations General Assembly this week in New York. The news is not from New York, but oversees five Americans freed in Iran prisoner's swap Landing cut Her the headline on the terminal A remarkable moment. Whether you agree with this or not, imagine their thoughts as these five Americans walked onto the ramp in one hundred four degree fahrenheit late Monday in Doha. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln spoke a short time later.
Just a few minutes ago, I had the great pleasure of speaking to seven Americans who are now free, free from their imprisonment or detention in Iran, out of Iran, out of prison, and now in Doha route back to the United States to be reunited.
With their loved ones.
Five of the seven, of course, had been unjustly detained imprisoned in Iran for years. Two others had been prevented from leaving Iran.
You've seen that shot of the tarmac. If you're with us watching today on YouTube, you can do that always now on Bloomberg sound on, get to YouTube, search Bloomberg Global News and join us here in studio.
Now.
As part of the swap, the administration here is releasing five Iranians held at US custody. The most controversial element, though, is the money here about this likely by now six billion dollars in oil revenue that had been frozen in South Korean banks due to sanctions now unlocked. Let's reassemble our panel for their take on this. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors, Genie, was this all worth it?
You know, you look at these people and they've suffered in one of the most notorious prisons in Iran for many, many years, in some cases Evan Prison, and you know, your heart goes out to them. You're so happy for their families. They seem to be in good health. That is all a very positive thing. But I think the concerns on the flip side are very real. From a policy perspective. The United States has had this challenge which with Iran since its inception in nineteen seventy nine. We
have had many exchanges before. But let's be very clear, and I think one thing, one very small thing the administration could do is change its language. This is not a prisoner swap. The Americans held were given sham trials. They were not prisoners. The people held here that are being released, the Iranians, they were given a fair trial. So it is, you know, not as if it is a prisoner swap. The Americans held were held, excuse me, unjustly,
and so that is one very small thing. But I do think the concerns are very real about the use of this six billion dollars. You know, Iran has been very clear they won't just restrict it to humanitarian reasons, and I am a firm believer that we have to have a set out policy on that, and we have not as it pertains to these activities that have been going on long before Biden came into office.
Rick, I want to read you a statement from Senators Head Cruz, of course serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Quote.
President Biden has established a secret nuclear deal with the Iranian regime, he writes, that is being kept from Congress and the American people. Today's news, he says, confirms there has already been a side deal, including a six billion dollar ransom and the release of Iranian operatives.
Is he right?
We have no idea of what Teddy Cruz says is true or not. There's no evidence that there is a deal, And if there were a deal, why wouldn't it be public. I doubt if anybody in the White House could think that they could keep an Iranian nuclear deal secret, especially through an election year, So I discount that. But I think he is right to question the use of frozen Iranian funds to pay for the release. We all celebrate
the release of these individuals. One mister Nemazi had been in a horrible prison for you know, almost three thousand days. I mean, that's as outrageous. And the conduct of the Iranian regime is to blame nobody else. And so it's a good thing that they're they're coming home, and it's a good thing that that that they're being greeted with a fanfare by Americans because we can't allow the Iranians
to dictate fairness. And that being said, Iran has turned hostage taking into a commercial enterprise, and we have to find ways as a government to not fall prey to that. Right now, if you're an American in Iran, you're a high value hostage because they know that they can get something from our administration for it. And that's Republicans and Democrats alike. Nobody wants hostages to remain in that god forsaken place. So we need a new policy, We need
something that we can adhere to. And thank god they're back, but it gives us time now to really think through how to approach this regime in the future.
Well, let's talk to your Genie that this move paves the way for talks over Iran's nuclear program. Is that the end goal or was this just a matter of getting people home?
Yeah? I mean, the administration has denied any connection between the two, but there is, to your point, a lot of specula that in reality there is a tie. You know, I think talks would be a very good thing, and any communication on Iran's nuclear capacity would be a good thing. But you know, I don't think we know the veracity of whether, in fact that's the case. I do go back to the fact we do need a policy. You know, I was just talking to somebody about James Foley, and
you remember this story. Well, we don't negotiate with terrorists, and yet in the case of Russia, who the President describes as a terrorist government in many respects, and Iran, we do negotiate. And so to the families of these hostages, and they are hostages. The question is when do we and when don't we as a government negotiate. We have no clarity on that from the US government. And again this proceeds Joe Biden by many, many years, if not decades.
We do need to come to some kind of policy agreement and consensus on that we don't want to risk that we incentivize the cap of Americans traveling. And as one of this Republican senator said over the weekend, people need to be very careful about traveling to Iran at this point, it is a very dangerous situation.
Now we've just learned the President held what's being described as an emotional call with the families of the American citizens returning home to.
The US from Iran.
And while we can talk about the controversy here and we will continue to certainly depending on how this plays out, I think what Rick said is important, and that's obviously all of us are relieved to see these folks get home. Anthony Blinkn referring earlier to the emotional conversation that he had with them as well and what must.
Be going through their minds.
I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with analysis from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano.
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I'm Joe Matthew now joined by Kaylee Lines here in the Bloomberg Washington DC Bureau. Good to see you as we pick up a new week with the same issue as we ended the last week with. And by that I mean day four on the strike yep, or I guess third full day we're saying, technically and a deal on the budget, just no celebration yet.
This is pretty interesting now. We talked about it with the panel last hour.
Main Street Caucus, Freedom Caucus, Right, cats and Dogs living together?
Eight percent budget cut. But can they pass it?
This is the question. And when we say Freedom Caucus, we aren't really talking about the whole Freedom Caucus who has agreed to this, because you already have a number of those members who said they would vote no to this agreement between these two different factions obviously one far right,
one more center right. What they agreed to also include some measures that would pretty much make it debt on arrival in a Democratic controlled Senate, Whether it relates to the border, an asylum granted to migrants, constructing the border wall, those deep spending cuts that they probably aren't gonna like. And there's nothing in there for Ukraine or disaster relief that the President has asked for.
Maybe just put this straight back to me. So we've seen this movie before. It feels like, yeah, there was a great.
Headline on the terminal government funding fight. This is bloomberg government now government funding fight, just round two of the debt ceiling brawl.
Ain't that the truth?
Deja vous all over again?
Right?
This is why we talked to Mick mulvaney every week, because there's always an update on this stuff and mix ben there on both sides of it. Capitol Hill of the White House even ran the budget. So we've got some stuff for Mick mulvaney today. It's great to have you back. Make of course, former OMB director, former member of Congress who co founded the Freedom Caucus. Every time McCarthy seems to think he's got a deal together here, Mick, it's just a couple of noisy members of that Freedom
Caucus who burst the balloon. Is this actually going to get a vote on Thursday?
Hey, Joe, Hey, Gayley, the more things changed, the more they stay the same, it seems. Look, and the difficulty of God is is just mass right. He's got a maybe a four seat, maybe a five seat margin depending on who shows up or you know, who quits between now and the end of the week, or who gets you know, thrown in jail. I don't know what's going on with some of these members. Then when you've got to margin that narrow, any four or five folks can
throw a monkey wrench in. And that's exactly what you see happening. I was stunned by the way that the main street folks and some of the right way folks are able to come to a deal. I was impressed. That's pretty good work. And if that doesn't satisfy everybody, then the chances of getting anything out of the House just on Republican votes probably isn't very good at all.
Yeah, And of course this is something that Speaker McCarthy would like to avoid eventually, even if he can get it through the House, he doesn't want to see a government shut down. Take a list and mick to what he said on one of the Sunday shows on Fox over the weekend.
A shutdown would only give strength to the Democrats, it would give the power to Biden. It wouldn't pay our troops, it wouldn't pay our border agents. More people would be coming across. I actually want to achieve something.
He wants to achieve something. And he went on to say Mick that a shutdown would just weaken the Republican's hand, would it We can speaker McCarthy's hand most of all.
You know, actually no, I'll give you the counter on that one. I think that you sort of get the sense I spent all last week in Washington last We're talking to folks across the spectrum, and you sort of get the impression that the middle of the party. I'm not talking about the main street folks. I'm not talking about the Republican Study Committee, which sort of leans right, or even the Freedom Caucus people that are okay with perhaps this deal. Again, this is not a Freedom Caucus mutiny.
It's a small group of people the Freedom Caucus at any time as roughly maybe forty members, and you need about eighty percent of those to take an official position, and nowhere near that. This is a rump group with
ra happy to be Freedom Caucus members. Who are causing all the difficulty, And honestly, I think the more unreasonable they are being, the more it helps Kevin and that sooner or later, and it maybe I think after a shutdown you might see an overwhelming number of Republicans go to Kevin and say, it's okay with us if you start talking to Democrats about things that are reasonable, because it's the only way we're going to pass anything, And that,
if it happens, might actually strengthen Kevin and really undermine these these five to ten folks who just say, note everything at this point interesting.
So that would unlock a little bit of negotiating across the aisle in that world, make at least the Phonic described this as a good place. She said, House Republicans are in a good place right now. We've got a deal. When she was asked also on Fox News Sunday, how would you describe the place that the Republican whip.
Is in today?
Listen, I think they're the keV The meltdown last week was was was a watershed moment. The line that Kevin said when he said he knows just bring the F and motion, let's let's get this over with. That's a watershed moment, because what I think he's realized is that Number one, he's never going to satisfy everybody in the caucus, and he needs to satisfy just about everybody in the
caucus to pass something with just Republican votes. But just as importantly, I think he's realized nobody else wants the job. Nobody else could get elected Speaker, and even if they did, they wouldn't want the gig. And I think that actually helps Kevin's hand because it sort of allows him to call these folks bluff. And I think that's you saw the opening salvo of that last week when Kevin challenged
them to bring the motion notice. By the way, they didn't take him up on his offer that Matt Gase's response is, you know, please bring us the appropriations bills. And I get that, listen, I get what's causing us. I get the anks with the spending. I get the lack of a budget, which I think they're going to solve this week. They're actually going to pass the top line budget number, which is some of the things that
the phys who conserves something complaining about. Those are legit concerns, But I think Kevin is finally realizing that the more this small group pushes and pushes and pushes, the more it actually helps him in strengthening his own hand.
As we talk about this small group, Mick. Over the weekend, the House Democratic Leader Hakim Jeffries characterize what is happening among House Republicans as a civil war. Do you think that's an apt description?
You know? Is it any different than the internal discussions in the Democrat Party? I mean, look, David Ignatius wrote a piece in The Washington Post last week saying that Joe Biden shouldn't run again and that Kamala Harris shouldn't run either. You want to talk about a civil war? Oh my goodness. When that outlet, with that author is taking that position, then you know there are discussions going on with the Democrats that are just as civil warish
as the Republican discussions are. So yeah, I don't think the gem is wrong. But to think that it's not like that for both parties in Washington d C. Is naive.
Look to ask you about something else that's making news here in Washington make and that's the prisoner swap with Iran. Some folks are very upset about this, a lot of Republican lawmakers are criticizing President Biden. Is it's not only a swap for five Iranian detainees Ruanian prisoners, but it's also unlocking six billion dollars that apparently was being held
by South Korea. This is oil money apparently destined for Iran, which says it will use it anyway it sees fit, even though this was supposed to be for humanitarian purposes. You spend enough time in omb to probably understand some of the inner workings here. First of all, was this the right move to unlock that money? And how does the Biden administration do this without the help of Congress.
Yeah, these are tough. I mean, the prisoner swaps are really tough because you know, we tend really not to take people into you know, arrest people in this country for political purposes, especially foreign citizens. Right. We don't go often and take a Russian because we want to be able to use that person as a as a brokering chip,
and the Russians do, and the Iranians do. It's always difficult when we see our innocent citizens being held overseas, and you've got to you know, I sympathize with the Biden administration for the position they're in, we had it from time to time. Actually, one of things that President Trump was really really good at was these prisoner negotiations
and so forth. The difficulty with doing it the way that the Biden administration is doing it and they're couching in terms of money only for you know, medicine and food, is that, as every listener of this program knows, money
is one hundred percent fungible. In fact, it is the ultimate fungible thing, right and now, instead of having to spend six billion dollars on food, the arrangeys be able to take this six billion dollars and spend that six pillion we just gave them on food and use the six billion they were good to spend on food to buy weapons systems, which is exactly what they mean when they say they can spend this money every way that
they want to. But they answer your question, by the way, deals with the abilities under the various laws that have already been passed that we give the we give the State Department, if we deal with already, would give the administration a great deal of authority. It's part of the execution of the laws. Typically speaking, if it's done properly. It is a proper function of the executive branch of government to cut these deals.
Interesting, well, you know Senator Ted Cruze's issue to statement. It says President Biden has established a secret nuclear deal with the Iranian regime that's being kept from Congress and the American people. He says, Today's news confirms there has already been a side deal, including a six billion dollar ransom and the release of Iranian operatives. That is not good politics for the White House? Is it fair language?
Ransom?
Well, it is.
Ransom, right, I mean, that's exactly what it. They took our people and we're paying the money. It is absolutely ransom. Like I said, this is a tough position for any administration to be in because that type of criticism is absolutely right. And the reason you don't like to pay ransom is that all it does is encourage people to do it again next time. So we used to have a policy in this country that we didn't negotiate with terrorists.
But you know, clearly the Biden administration has done just that. But again with its innocent Americans being held that. The sympathy levels are very very high. I don't know where Ted is getting this issue about a larger nuclear deal. I think there's plenty of here to criticize without now going that for unless he's got evidence that he's not talking about. I'd be surprised by the way if that had happened, It wouldn't surprise you they would do it.
I just can't see how they would do it in secret. The Democrats have wanted a deal on I Ranyan nuclear weapons for a long time. We tried to undo it. But I don't know what Ted is talking about when it comes to that. But maybe you can ask him, Mick.
While we're on the subject of foreign relations. Of course, later on this week we're going to be looking forward here in Washington to a visit from Ukrainian President Zelensky, both at the White House and on Capitol Hill, and a headline just across the Bloomberg terminal Reuters reporting that
McCarthy says he will meet with Zelensky this week. That's, of course, as McCarthy is dealing with parts of his Republican party in the House that would no longer like to help Ukraine in regard to funding for the war with Russia. When Zelenski makes the trip and please for more. Do you think it's going to fall on deaf ears in the house? Can mines change on this issue?
Yeah, in fact, they're already changing, not on deaf ears, but they're going to be cynical ears. There's no question. I think the days of writing a blank check to Ukraine have coming gone. You've already seen the reports starting to leak out about the lack of accountability of buy the Ukrainians. People forget and they want to forget, especially folks on the other side of the Aisle want to forget because they want to just look at Ukraine in
terms of a Trump issue. But one of the reasons that we withheld money for the Ukrainians in the first place was because they're one of the most corrupt places on the planet. There's actually special rules on the books in our country about giving money to Ukraine in terms of foreign aid. There's limitations that only apply to Ukraine because it is so corrupt, and you're starting to see that now come home to root. This is one of those interesting topics that is not necessarily right down the
middle partisan. There's going to be Democrats who are interested in in not spending more money in Ukraine. There could be Republicans who want to be interested in not spending more money in Ukraine. You're going to see a very healthy debate, I think on this particular issue. I don't think so once he comes to deaf ears, but I don't think he comes now to folks who are willing to write a willing to write him a blank check.
And Mick, I have one last question for you, because when you were on the show last week, you had some love express for Congressman Ken Buck, the Republican from Colorado, and he on Friday published an op ed in the Washington Post. I wanted to ask you about it's in regard to the impeachment inquiry. And this is a quote. Republicans in the House who are itching for an impeachment are relying on an imagined history. He goes on to say Trump's impeachment in twenty nineteen was a disgrace to
the Constitution and a disservice to Americans. The GOP's prize in twenty twenty three is no better. Mack, what's your response to that?
Sick?
Ken Buck is a really, really conservative guy. Okay, this is some This is not somebody from the middle of the party. This is this is a right winger. He's saying that people should pay attention. He's also a very thoughtful guy. He's well regarded with in the party, and I don't know if he's right or wrong because I haven't seen the evidence. I also encourage people to recognize there's a difference between an impeachment inquiry and an impeachment.
People want to sort of blurred lines between those two things. People forget there was an impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump in twenty nineteen before there was an impeachment. And I'm necessary I don't necessarily disagree with the decision to do an inquiry. But when Buck is coming out and saying that people should pay attention because he's a thoughtful person and he might be right, you might, you know, say, look, if we do this, then are we just as bad,
are we just as awful as a Democrats? Or is there not a moral high ground here that we can take. I remember back in twenty eleven and twelve, and I came in a tea party way, there was this inkling every now and then from back home about impeaching Barack Obama. Now, if that's the same question, where's the high crime and misdemeanor. Show me a high crime and misdemeanor that we have the discussion. I think that that's the same thing you're
hearing from Ken Buck today. Show me a crime and we'll talk about our teachers.
There you have it, from Mick Malvenny.
We thank you McK as always with us here on Bloomberg sound On.
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