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Nine days to a possible government shut down and no breakthrough yet on a plan to avoid it. Welcome to the fastest show in politics, says the Speaker, spars with the Senate Majority leader overfunding the governments, operations, Israel, Ukraine
funding and a lot more where that came from. We're joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, the Republican from Arkansas, serves on the Financial Services, Foreign Affairs, and Intelligence committees, and is at the center of the debate overfunding, as well as the one around renewing the government's warrantless spying powers. We'll have the representative here live from Capitol Hill in just a moment. It was a big night
for Democrats, a big election night, of course. We'll look at dem victories from Virginia to Kentucky to Ohio with our signature panel. Of course, a lot to discuss, as always with Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. We'll keep you posted as well on Wall Street trading throughout the hour because we do want to start immediately in our conversation with Congressman french Hill, who is with us from Capitol Hill. Congressman, it's great to see you,
and thank you for coming back to see us. Can you give us a status check here? And you've got guys like me asking you about a potential shutdown every day as you try to figure out a plan on this, but it's getting awfully close.
What do you know?
Well, Joe, it's good to be with you. Look, I've encouraged our speaker our conference. We need to pass a stop gap continuing resolution for a period of time so that we can get the rest of these spending bills completed in the House and the Senate and go to conference and enact twenty twenty four spending. I'm supportive of a variety of ways to do that. We could do one in a two step manner, part of it in
early December and the balance of it in January. Do it all until January, but we need that time to go past the November seventeenth deadline. We lost a lot of time up here Joe messing around with just a handful of people kicking Kevin McCarthy out of his job. We've got to get those weeks of work back.
Well, that's right, And are you referring to this idea of the laddered cr Congressman, in which there would be different expirations for various programs and agencies. Is that what's getting the most support in your conference?
Personally, I think simpler is better, and therefore I think a straightforward stop gap continuing resolution until say the third week of January is probably the best thing to do to not facilitate the Senate trying to jam the House with a giant omnibus spending bill before Christmas, as is the typical work of the Senate. I think that's the best approach, But the idea of a two step approach could work if Senate Democrats and that Republicans want to
do that. In other words, let's take defense, State and foreign operations, transportation, housing, urban development consensus bills and get those finished before December. But I think that takes both houses agreeing to want to do that.
What's the point of doing that?
That would essentially set up the idea of multiple cliffs, wouldn't it, Congressman, and I feel like we've had enough to last us for a while.
Yeah, Well, look, we want to demonstrate that we don't want to have a government shut down, So in effect, the House would be funding government. They would just do that to try to provide an incentive to the Senate to move faster on the bills that they've already considered.
That's the incentive. Another approach, Joe, would be simply to pass a continuing resolution through September thirtieth, twenty twenty four, and say that we're taking off the table a government shutdown and try to encourage the Senate to get their work done like that. We've passed eighty percent of spending here in the House. They've not yet completed their work in the Senate. But that's why we need this extra time.
Well, that's one matter that you're dealing with. Of course, we've talked as well as Congressman about this supplemental budget request for Israel, for Ukraine, We've talked about attaching money for Taiwan and the border to that.
That's actually the approach of.
The White House and the Senate, and it seems like that's being picked apart here in the House, at least that was the case for Israel money. Are you supporting the idea of bringing each of these to the floor separately or will that be handled in conference and you'll have a very different looking bill that might include all of those matters, because we're getting close to not only a government shutdown, but the idea of delaying money to Israel and Ukraine is making a lot of people nervous.
Congressman, for a lot of good reasons.
Right, Well, of course, we passed nearly four billion dollars of Israel defense spending over almost five weeks ago in the House. The Senate could have taken that bill up and passed it weeks ago, and we weren't even We might not even be having this short term concern learn
about Israel last week. You're right, the House did pass the fourteen billion dollar request for Israel across the House floor strong vote, got twelve Democratic votes with it as well, and in the House, I think we'll get a bipartisan vote for support for our other allies Ukraine and Taiwan. But there's no doubt that Republican members want to review that and make their recommendations on what that bill should contain. I was in a meeting for several hours this morning
on that. So we are making progress here, and I know they are in the Senate as well, So I expect that we will have a bipartisan vote to support the effort by Ukraine to throw Putin out of their country and also to defend our ally Taiwan.
Interesting because you know, we're hearing a slightly different tune from Chuck Schumer. He took to the floor this morning to say that this bill that Republicans in the House have put together tying Ukraine to border funding as a non starter in the Senate. I know that there's a lot of tough talk, and sometimes it's not exactly related
to a final products. Congressman, and you know there's a lot of posturing right now, but do you worry that in fact, this is creating delays for Israel and Ukraine.
Well, first of all, let's make sure we get the bill and the funding right to match the strategy of defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression, making sure Ukraine has the timely material they need to defeat Putin, and make sure Israel has timely stockpiles for their iron dome system and for their precision minisions. So let's get the substance right, then we can get this timing issue right. But I'm convinced that if we focus on the substance, we'll get
the timing correct. And to Senator Schumer's point, well, you've got Senator Jim Langford of Oklahoma working actively over in the Senate on a border policy that they can get consensus on and get democratic support for. So look, I think it's very fluid in both houses. I think both houses are committed to the appropriate amount of funding to defend our allies and their efforts to authoritarian attacks and terrorist attacks.
Do you think we're going to survive a government shut down then?
Or there could be a couple of days before something is figured out in the short term.
Look, I think that's a bad idea. We just don't need to do that. We should in my view, and we didn't do it this week. But I urge that we adopt a continuing resolution and get one that two hundred and eighteen Republicans could support and get that done and through the House this week or very early next week. And it doesn't appear that's going to happen, And so
once again we move towards a deadline. But we need that sort of leadership, and that allows us to do the substantive work that we're elected to do in analyzing the right spending programs for all of fiscal twenty four and to have the time to debate those supplemental appropriations that are critical.
For our allies, well as we consider policy that's critical to Americans everywhere. Congressman, there are two things that are getting not enough talk. I think you and I both agree on this. One would be the Farm Bill, and we'll get to that with an important renewal that could be coming as soon as next month. And then there is FISA, or seven oh two as some people call it short, that section seven oh two of the Foreign
Intelligence Surveillance Act. You serve on the Intelligence Committee, and you know a lot more about this than certainly I do or most people here. But there is a bypart as an effort to renew what a lot of people see as a controversial measure, a warrantless spying by the US.
Why does this need to happen?
Well, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, passed years ago, connected with the post nine to eleven world we live in is very important to America's national security. This is how we use the National Security Agency and other intelligence community participants to make sure we're monitoring people who might do US harm outside the United States. The controversial part is where an American citizen is talking to one of those suspects or terrorists or state actors outside the US, how
do we listen in on their conversations? For example? This
is where the reform needs to take place. And Darren Lohood of Illinois Andy Biggs of Arizona have been working together on a reform package that reflects the views of certainly the House Republicans and House Democrats have been involved as well, because we need the authorities of Section seven oh two under FISA to make sure that we have the intelligence resources to help protect against a homeland attack or protect against an attack against American interest outside the United States.
Well, it's you know, it's not lost on me that the FBI Director Christopher Ray said in a hearing was believe it's just last week talking about the threats abroad that had spawned from the Hamas attack on Israel, that in fact, domestic terror threats were nearing a high as well right now, that the chatter is getting very noisy, and I wonder, Congressman, if that's your concern, if it's domestic threats to the US, or it's something altogether different, why Americans need to see this renewed well.
FBI Director Ray last week before the Senate did say that it's very concerning to me that he would raise that level of concern that the information that they pick up through their intelligence sources indicate that America is the most at risk it's been since Isis rose in power in twenty fourteen. Some have even said the most at risk since nine to eleven. And here's how I feel about it. One, we can't can't let Fizas seven oh
two expire and lose that authority. Secondly, we need to have all of our military on alert around the world. And thirdly, we have an open border, Joe. We have an open border where one hundred and sixty nine people on the terror watch list have come across the border in the last year. That's a problem, and so I think that's concerning too, who's coming across this millions of people entering the United States illegally. So I'm concerned about
border security from that point of view. And who's gotten into our country local radicalization. You know, back in my hometown of Little Rock, we had a local radicalized Islamic fundamentalist in Memphis, Tennessee come over to Little Rock and attack our military recruiting base and kill a young man.
And that's what I think. Also Directory is concerned about, so external threats across the border, external threats around to our military and our diplomats, and internal threats by people who are radicalized by terrorism.
Will it be renewed by the end of the year.
That's my hope. And here's the way to do it. Look, if we can't agree on the precise reforms to the process, let's renew it for a short period of time while we debate those reforms and get them passed. We cannot have a gap in that coverage.
So it's a cr for seven oh two.
Well, let's not call it that, Joe. We're trying to help get it past here.
It's probably not going to help with anyone. Congressman. It's good to see you. Thank you for the time.
Congressman french Hill with us live from Capitol Hill as always on Bloomberg and as I mentioned, brings a unique perspective to think about it, Foreign Affairs, Financial Services, and intelligence committees. He put them all together, and he's coming at this from a different position than a lot of lawmakers. As we assemble our panel now, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino are with us. Bloomberg Politics contributors will start here with the matter of funding our government and the rest.
You know, I left for a couple of days, guys, I thought you might have something figured out here. Maybe I should have mentioned that to the congressman. But Rick Davis, this lattered cr seems to be catching on. I don't get a sense that Friendshill prefers it, but there seems to be some residents here.
Is that going to be the answer.
Well, it's certainly something that the speaker's trying to sell inside the caucus right now, and it's even a question as to whether or not people like Frendshill and others are willing to walk down that aisle. I mean, it's kind of a compromise on top of compromises, It wrought with problems. It kind of guarantees a shutdown for government for some period of time, and it's completely dead on
arrival in the Senate. So most people I've talked to have absolutely no idea how to actually implement this across the government, across Congress. And so most people are telling me they think that Senate is just going to do a clean CR and get it over there and kind of jam the House with it ultimately to just keep the government shut down from happening.
Does this just slow things down?
Genie, we're talking about the back and forth year on Israel funding, on Ukraine in this case, on government funding, dealing with approaches that everyone knows will not lead to a breakthrough or a law. Is that just the story of this period of time. We're just dragging everything until a longer wait cycle, and in some cases beyond what might be appropriate when you consider two hot wars being for.
Yeah, and you know, the reality is this is how Congress usually operates. It takes a long time. They do come to deadlines. I think the Representative is absolutely right. The smart thing to do here is to pass a clean CR, negotiate the funding for Israel, Ukraine and the rest separately, and move this forward. Because let's remember this latter CR. And Joe, you're on fire. You're so right. This multiple cliffs is a great way to describe it.
This is not only something that Democrats don't like, but Senate Republicans Susan Collins and others have said, this is just making the pain far worse. Let's get a clean cr let's get it through, Let's negotiate what needs to go out for Israel and Ukraine, and let's move forward. Is the smart thing to do. The concern is that may not happen, and it's really in the Speaker's hands at this point.
Rick, can't you see the cable news channels, you know, with five or six countdown clocks all ending at different times.
It's the multiple cliff show.
It does make you wonder about the optics behind all of that and just how crazy you might want to drive your constituents.
But is the alternative also a dead end for this speaker?
Would Speaker Johnson be recalled or fired if he actually passed a clean CR with Democrats?
You know, it's hard to tell about whether or not Johnson's honeymoon is over at this point. Certainly you've starting to see the sun set on that. Marjorie Taylor Green went after me yesterday, kind of shades of the old Congress again.
And who knows whether or not.
He can make it to the end of a term, you know, by January of twenty five. But right now he's got work cut out for him in front of him. This idea of splitting it up, it would only be a couple of different deadlines, one in early December and then one in the middle of January. But that being said, I don't even get the impression he's making progress with
his own Republican caucus on it. So it's it's hard for me to understand how you're going to implement that and how you're even going to get time to vote on at this stage because the clock has really ticked down too far. And what I find quite amazing is absolutely no word from the White House on their preferences. I mean, they've they've not tried to push through the
supplemental in any way that I've seen. They kind of just left it to Schumer in the Senate and and you know, he's got to buy part of the majority for it, that's not his problem.
So unless the White House.
Sort of puts some pressure on the House of Representatives, they're kind of going to let him just stew and I don't think that's good for the country. I think the president a way in and say get the cr done, and get the you know, get the government funded, and and let's go about the business of Passanese supplemental.
Well, I'll tell you by this time next week, it's gonna feel real, Like I mentioned, only nine days to go here, and we'll be of course talking it out with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino, our signature panel. Next, a big night for Democrats, a big election night. Rick and Jenie will weigh in on Democratic victories that might tell us a lot about the way forward in twenty twenty four, not to mention tonight's Republican presidential debate. We'll hit it all next with Rick and Jeanie. I'm Joe
Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
The Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Are we gonna start referring to Ohio as a swing state again, Is it going purple? Did you see this yesterday? Voters enshrining the right to an abortion in the state's constitution and legalizing cannabis in the same day. That was part of a good day for Democrats. You can certainly say, look no further than the state of Kentucky or the Democratic governor. Yes, Mitch McConnell's Kentucky the Democratic governor Andy Basheer wins reelection.
Just look at what we were up against. Five superpacks, my opponent's super pack, Mitch McConnell's super pack, Ran Paul Superpack, the Club for Growth, the Republican Governors Association, all running ads full of hate and division. And you know what, we beat them all at the same time.
From last night and a busy night, a string of wins here for Democrats and elections around the country. Let's reassemble our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor has been really looking forward to what both of you have to say here. The narrative is a tough one, Rick, for Republicans, and I wonder your thoughts on a state like Kentucky. I'm not really sure I understand the basher
phenomenon to begin with. But after what you just heard there, overcoming Mitch McConnell, overcoming the forces of gravity, how did he do it? And maybe more importantly, what does it mean for the greater fields in this next election cycle?
And well, you know, like all things in politics, it all starts with money. He outspent his opponent by twenty million dollars, so that helps a lot. And he's been running as a governor who as a centrist. There's a lot of value with being a centrist politician today, especially in some states like Kentucky. He's seen the state through some really tough times and so every time we read a survey, the one thing that is in common is voters want the parties to work together to find solutions.
And he's been a solution oriented governor, so give him his due. Getting elected a Democrat governor in red state is very rare. We talked about this earlier this week about how there are only five states left where there are split governance, where there are Republicans and Democrats in the statewide leadership, whether they're in Congress or in constitutional offices at the state level. So it's a rare bird.
To find something like this, and the fact that he was able to do as well as he did is real kudos to him for you know, the kind of politician, the kind of politics he's playing well.
The greater theme is certainly leaning in the direction of Democrats. In the last twenty four hours here, Genie, as we've seen in the midterms and a lot of special elections, the issue of abortion loomed large, and I suspect that you're connecting some dots here. It's not only what happened in Ohio yesterday with the abortion vote, but also what happened in the state of Virginia. We'll have Rick Way in on this too. He's certainly no stranger to Virginia politics.
But people are looking at the impact that the issue of abortion had. Governor Glen Youngkin was talking about implementing a fifteen week ban, but also what that means in the bigger picture for twenty twenty four not just for Glen Youngkin, but also that issue of abortion and how it might play for Democrats.
How do you see it?
It has played very well for Democrats since the overturning of Roe and the passage of Dobbs. There's no question about that. Every time abortion has been front and center and on the ballot, the pro choice forces have come out and they have won. So now we see it in the red Ohio, it played big in Kentucky, and
to your point, in Virginia. Interesting about Virginia, we saw Governor Youngkin trying to test out new language and a new way forward for Republicans and pro life forces, not to be defensive, but to go on the offensive, trying
to talk about this fifteen week limit. The reality is though, that once again that did not succeed for him, as it hasn't for Republicans across the country, and that means we are probably going to see in twenty four Obviously Democrats make as much as they can out of this, but we're probably going to see Republicans walk back a little bit. We've already seen that from Donald Trump. Fascinating. Here is somebody who wants to have it both ways. He's saying he's a moderate, this issue is going to
hurt Republicans. He's going to take a stepped back approach on this. And yet here's the same man who, when Dobbs was passed, claimed credit for stacking the Supreme Court. So how he is going to walk that line is going to be fascinating. But the reality is abortion has helped Democrats from the start when it's been the issue front and center. But I would be cautious about reading too much of these results into twenty four. The reality is is that a lot of what happened last night
was about local and state issues. Andy Basheer is a very attractive candidate. He is a son of a former governor. To Rick's point, he's spent an awful lot of money and he has been effective. That said, look at what he talked about when he stood on that stage for the first time. He talked about infrastructure, a bill that
joined Biden and McConnell down there in that state. So this does vode a little bright light for Biden and the Democrats, but they have a lot of work to do because you've got to get people out to the vote. This is a off your election with low turnout except for people who are incredibly interested in these issues like abortion in marijuana when they're on the ballot.
Yeah, right, how about that.
I did see a little bit of a line in Virginia. I have to admit, Rick, I don't know about you yesterday. But are people being fair to count out Glenn young Can in this cycle. Some had concocted this idea of Glenn Youngkin running the board on Tuesday night, a red wave through the legislature, and then making a late arrival on the presidential trail.
Yeah.
I kind of teased by Governor Youngin himself, right. I mean he set this up as, Hey, I'm going to put all my chips on win in the legislature. I want to i want to completely unified government the Senate and the House in Richmond. And and and I'm not going to make any decisions about my future politically until I do that. Well, he didn't do it, and so the decision about his future kind of got made for him.
Uh.
And this is always the problem with setting those kinds of markers in the future.
Uh.
The Virginia race was incredibly close. U Republics actually picked up a seat in the Senate and lost some in the House. And so the bottom line is Democrats now have both chambers in Richmond. Uh to style me any an initiative that the governor may have, you know, for the next two years of office.
So he's he's now trapped in.
Sort of political purgatory and to some degree of his own making. Look, there's no question abortion played big in this I would say looking at these Ohio results, even more so than Virginia, there are a lot of turnout and and it's actually almost historic for a off year election, an off off year election, and you know, three point nine million people voted in Ohio and four million voted
in the midterm. That is outrageous. That's you know, the idea that an off year could meet a midterm is is really something you know, and I think what Republicans have to pay attention to is, you know, Democrats have occupied the vast majority of voters in the cities, but with this abortion referendum, they were able to move that way out into the suburbs. And to me, that is something that could play important in the twenty twenty four election.
But three groups voters under thirty and independent voters and women all vastly supported this abortion referendum in Georgia or in Ohio. But all of them have in those cases. In Ohio a thirty nine percent approval rating of Joe Biden. So you can't necessarily draw the conclusion because they're turning out big for abortion in Ohio, that they're going to necessarily do the same thing for Joe Biden as president.
I'd be curious to ask you about the Trump effects in our remaining moment here, Jeanie. There was actually one big Republican win last night. May not have surprised anybody, but Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves beat Brandon Presley, a cousin or a nephew of Elvis Presley or something there. But Donald Trump went on truth so that Daniel Cameron lost. That's the one who lost to Basher in Kentucky because
he could not alleviate the stench of Mitch McConnell. He goes on to write, Tate Reeves, on the other hand, Surge will win after my involvement. Congratulations to Tate. Was this a win or a loss for Donald Trump overall?
Jeannie?
In his mind everything is a win, Joe, Matthew, But you know it was a loss.
Listen.
He endorsed Cameron as well, so I don't know why the stench falls on Mitch McConnell. But another great spot actually for Republicans, we have to say, is New York. Once again, they win the county executive in Suffolk, they win a city council seat in the Bronx New York. Because the focus has been on crime has been something that Republicans have been able to make hay of up here, and that is going to be something we're going to see a battle over in twenty four so, don't you know,
Democrats have to keep their eye on that. Abortion huge for Democrats, but crime and the issue of immigration and a legal migration continues to play big for Republicans rather in places you wouldn't expect it, like my home state. So we have to keep our eye on that because the numbers there are pretty astonishing, continuing what we saw for Republicans in the midterm.
Day after Analysis with Rick and Jeannie.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern.
On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
The House of Representatives still trying to figure a way to fund government operations beyond next Friday, votes to censure the lone Palestinian Americans serving in the House. Rashida Talib, the congresswoman from Michigan. This is not the first attempt that we've seen here put together by a member of the Republican majority. In the case of yesterday, it did get to the floor and it passed.
On this vote.
The yea's are two one hundred and thirty four and the nays are one hundred and eighty eight, with four answering present, the resolution is adopted.
It's the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.
Without objection.
The motion to reconsider is laid on the table, and there you have it. Two thirty four one eight.
This goes back to comments made by the congresswoman and in fact, a video that was posted on Twitter, which I will always call Twitter, I guess that showed pro Palestinian protesters chanting from the river to the sea as reassemble. Our panel with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors for their take.
On this, Genie.
We heard a pronounced debate on the floor of the House. There were a lot of Democrats who came to Rashida Salib's defense, talking about this as a freedom of speech issue.
Should she have been censured?
You know, it's really divided the Democratic Party in an important way. I think there's two things. I'm of two minds here. On the one hand, I agree completely with Hakeem Jeffries, the Minority leader, when he says that the statements that she made, particularly in that video you referenced, or that she didn't make them, she released them in this video, are deplorable. They are slogans that are destructive.
They do not at all support what we hope would be the end for everybody, which would be some kind of two state solution. They are polarizing, their divisive, They incite violence. So it is really really troubling to see that released by a congress person that said. I am of the opinion that when you go and you censure, you have to be very carefully. You're doing it only for reasons that are the most most serious. And I agree actually with Ken Buck and some of the other
Republicans on this. We have to be careful. We don't get into a tip for tat where we are censuring people on the other side because we don't agree with them. I don't agree with Rashida to leave here, and by the same token, I don't think we should make censure a weapon that is used to try to hold people up whose speech we don't appreciate. So I'm of those two minds here. I wouldn't have voted for the censer. I side with Buck on that, but the statements are deplorable,
and I'm glad. Hakeem Jeffreys came out clearly and said that it does though divide the Democratic Party. But you did have twenty two Democrats vote to censure her all the same.
Yep, that's right, and ken Buck was one of four Republicans, as you mentioned, voting against the measure. Rashida Tsalib spoke to her own defense on the floor.
Here she is speaking up to save lies, mister chair, No matter faith, no matter ethnicity, should not be controversial in this chamber. The cries of the Palestinian and Palestinian and Israeli children sound no different to me. Why What I don't understand is why the cries of Palestinians sound different to you all?
Is that a fair question? Does it deserve an answer?
Rick?
Yeah?
Look, I think the answer was she got censured, and she didn't get censured by Margerie Taylor Greene censure resolution and talked about insurrection and things like that. I mean Republicans said no to that, Democrats said no to that. That was fine, but she was censured for what she said. And sure, sometimes she says nice things like what she just said about the value of life. None other times she says things that are incredibly destructive and that promote
political violence. And we talk a lot about promotion of political violence on this show, and I think the Congress did the right thing by putting her in her place, centering her. It's only been done, you know, a couple dozen times in the history. But when you are promoting a chant of from the River to the Sea, which means the complete destruction of Israel, and you've sided with Hamas in the past, then you are promoting political violence, and that we got to have zero tolerance for that.
And frankly, if anybody else does the same thing, they should be censured to.
We mentioned it a moment ago. Twenty two Democrats chose to vote in favor of censure, Genie. They're all from different states. There were some New Yorkers in there. You've got Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida. Some of them you might have considered predictable, some of them not. What were they thinking of.
You know.
I think they are seeing what she released in the statement she's made as calls for the complete destruction of Israel, and even though she is a member of their party and they support her right to speak, they are very, very concerned about the rhetoric and the violence that can ensue as a result. You know, I think in my mind, what I try to think about is what should we do to advance what we all want. She's absolutely right,
it was a heartbreaking statement. You just played What is happening to innocent civilians and Palestine in Gaza strip rather is so heartbreaking. There is no difference between Israeli and Palestinian children, or any children or people that said we have to expect a good deal from our leaders in the United States that they are going to be productive.
And I think the members who voted to censure her on the Democratic side are looking at this as calls her violence that they just cannot go on the record either turning a blind eye to or supporting, you know, and this is I don't think she is likely surprised by this. I do think this is a really important
and difficult conversation to have all around. But violence does have to be condemned, and we do need to think about humanitarian assistance and solutions and being productive and violent rhetoric is not the way to do that.
Well, in our thirty seconds remaining, I don't want to cut you off here, Rick, but I wonder if you think this puts it to bed at least as a public sort of fissure in the Democratic conference in the House.
It could just depends upon her conduct and her speech between now and then. It certainly has put the squad, you know, AOC and her team on defense and certainly not a good thing for going into an election year.
Well yeah, members of the squad were standing with her or sitting right around her to support her while she was making that floor speech in her defense, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, we don't shy away from the tough ones here. This is Bloomberg.
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The Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen I have on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Joe Matthew in Washington this day after the election night that went pretty well for Democrats. Is the narrative, and we're going to talk to Wendy and Mark Niquette about that in just a moment. As Andy Basheer takes a victory lap, Daniel Cameron says, good night, contact.
That you pray for Governor Basheer and his team and for all of our commonwealth because at the end of the day, win, loser, drawl. What ultimately matters is that we know that christ is on the throne.
Christ is on the throne, he said, And we thought Trump was on the throne. This is Cameron when he won the primary.
A big thank you to President Donald J. Trump for his support and here's endorsement of this campaign. Let me just say, let me just say, the Trump culture of winning is alive and well in Kentucky.
Except it wasn't last night. As it turned out, Andy Basheer wins a remarkable race as a Democrat in Kentucky. And that's where we want to start our conversation with Wendy Benjamins in Bloomberg of course, Washington Senior Editor and Mark Niquette is with us from the great state of Ohio.
Bloomberg Politics Reporter, It's great to see you both here. Wendy, your thoughts on that the takeaways for Donald Trump on a night like that, He took to Truth by the Way and said that Daniel Cameron lost because of the taint or the stench or something of Mitch McConnell. Mitch mcconne, Oh my goodness, what about the stench of Donald Trump.
Well, yes, but Donald Trump doesn't think there's an He's none electoral.
Did he play a big role in this campaign, because we're going to next talk about how Democrats had a big night.
No, no, I mean Donald Trump really has his hands full with the trial the New York fraud Trilley who scores on the stand on Monday. So he was not really campaigning for this one at all, and I'm not sure it often helped. Remember in the midterms in last year, the people he campaigned for and the most MAGA candidates lost.
And I think overall, what this election told us last night was that voters are certainly in favor of abortion rights, They are certainly interested in the Democratic brand, whether they are, according to other polls, interested in Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the big unanswered question.
Well, that's right.
I used this race in Kentucky as an entry point mark. But I wonder your thoughts on some of the bigger picture takeaways from yesterday. When we look at the state of Virginia, for instance, a lot of folks thought that would be a red wave that sent Glenn Younkin running into the presidential campaign. Neither happening here. And of course what happened in Ohio. Wendy mentioned abortion, and that does seem to be a big part of the takeaway from
races we saw in all of these states. What's your view today.
I don't know how you cannot say this was a good night for Democrats. In Virginia, Governor Younkin went all in to keep Republican control of the House of Delegates and flipped the Senate. This is going to be his springboard, I think, to a run for president in twenty twenty eight.
That didn't work out.
In Virginia, the Democratic governor won what is clearly a very conservative red state in a year where it shouldn't have been good for Democrats given President Biden's low popularity, and in Ohio, you had this issue to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution passed by thirteen percentage points in a state that Donald Trump won twice. Are trending a red state now, and it just clearly demonstrated that in a case of abortion, it's an issue that can
mobilize Democrats and independents and works against Republicans. Of Republicans haven't figured out how to message abortion after the Supreme Court decision overturning abortion and abortion rights. And you know, clearly the results in Ohio showed that, you know, Republicans, particularly suburban women, Republican women, are going to turn out and vote for abortion rights.
Well, in the Mark, you're absolutely right. But the yellow flashing sign for Democrats, Joe, is that in November twenty twenty four, when it's probably but not necessarily going to be Biden and Trump, abortion rights will not be specifically on the ballot maybe in a couple of states, but you know that's going then. It's really not about an issue that as Mark said, everyone is many many voters are getting behind. It's going to be that choice that very few voters really want to make.
It could be six states if those ballot measures I guess are approved. So it's not like the whole country is going to be dealing with this as an issue. To your point, although the overhang of Roe, That's true, and that national effect is still very real, is it not?
It is and the White House or the Biden Reelette campaign has decided to make Vice President Kamala Harris the spokeswoman for abortion rights, and she is an effective advocate on it. She can bring it out. She herself is not as popular as even Joe Biden, I think, but she can really speak to abortion in a way that Joe Biden is very uncomfortable speaking about it because he's always been a little doubting on abortion rights.
Anyway, Mark Niquette, Wendy mentioned the Democrat brand and it wasn't only abortion in Ohio, it was cannabis. What do you make of these takeaways when you put them together, and does it reshape your view of Ohio.
Not for the general in a presidential race.
I mean, I think Ohio will not be in play in the presidential race, but I think it shows how these issues can be motivating factors for turnout. Abortion in particular, I think will be used in Ohio to try and increase Democratic turnout and you know, maybe work against some of the suburban vote. The supporters of Issue one think having the separate ballot issue to legalize recreational marijuana help drive turnout of younger voters, which helped them on the
abortion issue. But the abortion results were very interesting. In Ohio, you had eighteen counties that voted for Trump in twenty twenty support the abortion rights amendment and in some cases, you know, pretty.
In a big way.
And what's interesting about that is a lot of these counties are suburban counties, like around Columbus, the state capitol, and in northeast Ohio, we're sort of working class voters who used to be Democrats but came over to Trump and are pretty strong Trump supporters.
They went for the abortion issue.
So it just kind of shows how abortion can be a factor as an issue in the race. But you know, as you said before, it's not going to be a race about abortion. It's going to be a race about the presidency in particular a choice between Trump and Biden.
Well, as we pull this into a bigger conversation about twenty twenty four, we had the New York Times sianopol which freaked out a lot of Democrats here in Washington for lack of a better term, Wendy, and I'm looking at Marquette University today. This is specific to Wisconsin and these matchups Nikki Haley fifty three, Biden forty four DeSantis Biden forty eight. Not quite the spread here, but Biden
still beats Donald Trump. And I wonder how that will inform what you're going to be looking for tonight in this Republican debate, because the two aiming for second at least in this hypothetical in Wisconsin could beat Jobiden absolutely.
And that is what Nikki Haley's going to come out swinging on a lot of issues on this because she is ascendant in the polls as Dissantis sort of either stays the same or drops, but she really thinks she could be the last person standing if Donald Trump goes down.
One of the things that was interesting in that New York Times senapol is that voters, especially independents, who would vote for Trump over Biden while he's under indictment, would change their vote once if he ever became a convicted felon. That convicted felon, maybe the bar switch people off Donald Trump. And if that's the case, six percent is actually enough
in a close election to beat it. So if he becomes a convicted felon, let's say it happens before the convention somehow, in some political movie that I can write someday, you know, Nikki Haley becomes the Republican nominee, then Bind's in real trouble.
Mark, what are your thoughts in helping our listeners and viewers prepare for this debate tonight?
It's going to be the third round.
We've got five candidates on stage and with the backdrop that we just laid out here, who will have your attention tonight in Miami?
Well, it looks like.
It's going to be a fight between Ron DeSantis and Nicky Haley. Is when he said for second place to try to be sort of the Trump alternative. So it'd be interesting, you know, to what level that sparring actually takes place. But I'll be interested to see, you know, how Nicky Haley tries to use the issue of abortion in this debate. I mean, she has more, you know, stick out a more moderate position on abortion than Ron DeSantis, who supported a you know, a six week heartbeat bill
U band kind of issue. And I think the results from last night sort of suggests that a majority of voters are towards the more moderate, you know, restrictions on abortion rather than you know, the more strict six week bands.
Well, and after last night, it'll be really interesting to see if Nikki Haley and some of those others are as unapologetically pro life as they have coined themselves in previous debates, knowing that it's a loser even in places like Ohio and Kansas and other conservative rock red ribbed states that have rock ribbed red states I guess that have that have been trying abortion rights.
Well, it's gonna be something to watch this evening the debate in the spin room, and I appreciate your coming over to talk to us about it. Wendy Benjaminson with us from Washington, Mark Niquette from Ohio. After an important election night, Thanks to both of you for the insights today on Bloomberg Sound On, as we add the voice of another expert here and in fact, someone who knows these poll numbers probably a lot better than we do, and as in fact prepared a presidential candidate for a
debate like this. That would be Jim Messina. Jim, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg Sound On. It's a pleasure, of course, CEO the Messina Group, former Deputy chief of staff to President Obama.
This is a tough world.
I guess if you're competing for second, my goodness, the front runner doesn't even show up. So what's the strategy tonight for Aronda Santis or a Nikki Haley?
What would you tell him?
Well, look, I agree with Wendy. I think it's important tonight to stand out. You are competing for one lane and one lane only, which is to be the Trump alternative. And what is chilling these guys right now, Joe, is that there's too many of them, and so they need some these guys to get out. They were happy that Pence got out last week.
They need some more of these folks. And so they got to do two things.
They got to look presidential and look like they can do this, and they need to stand up to the other potentials who are going to swing at them, and you know, try not to.
Have an oops moment.
And so if I was advising either DeSantis or Haley, I'd say stick to your own message first, kind of shuck off the back and forth and don't let them hit you and just try to look at the electorate and make your case why you should be the Republican nominee for president.
Nikki Haley's got a major differentiator now that Mike Pence is out of the race, Jim, and that's firsthand experience with foreign policy. Wouldn't you just talk about Israel and Ukraine and Russia and China all night?
Yes and no, Joe on one hand, he asked, But you know she doesn't agree with the majority of her party on a couple of those issues, right. You know, she's always been more pro engagement in the modern Trump Republican Party who doesn't want to be in some of those places, and so that makes her messaging more difficult. I would absolutely attempt to, you know, talk about leadership
and move this to that. But you know, voters tend to care way more about what you're going to do for them and why they should be excited about you, and part of primaries is about excitement.
And so she's got.
To figure a way to kind of continue to be the candidate of the moment, which she's done really good at the Other thing is I'm glad you raised that Wisconsin pul earlier. You know, the thing that's propping up Trump right now is the belief that he can be Biden. And now there's starting to be data out there in Wisconsin, which, for your viewers and listeners, is now the most important
state in America. Wisconsin is the state where when you run computer simulations, that's the state that gives you the presidency. And the fact that Donald Trump can't win that state right now, but Haley and Santas can't. If they can't make that sale to the Republican base, there's no sale to be made. I still think this primary is already over and they're competing for the VP. Joe, But you know, tonight's tonight they've got to move here.
You do believe the primary is over? You just answered my next question. So this whole exercise tonight is one in vain just in case something bad happens to Donald Trump.
Dolland Trump has the largest lead of any primary candidate in our modern lifetime. Now, let's not get too excited about that. The previous record holder was Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in two thousand and eight.
I don't think.
We're going to compare the Santas and Nikki to Barack Obama. So you know, I'm to quote the great movie line, there's still a chance, Joe, but I you know, he's over fifty in all these In Ron DeSantis' home state of Florida, there was a pull out yesterday that showed Trump leading him by thirty nine points, and so that shows you the hill. These folks are climbing up, and at some point their version of me is going to walk in the room and say, hey, can we have
a private conversation. Do you think you're running for president or do you think you're running for vice president? Because that is a whole different thing about what you say about Donald Trump.
So you're saying there's a chance.
Spending time with Jim Messina, I was taken by a tweet from Larry Sabadow Jim, he's going to join us later on today on Bloomberg TV, and he was reacting to the Virginia election results, which I'd love to hear from you on. Of course, a lot of folks thought this would be a make or break situation for Glenn Youngkin.
A lot of folks thought it would make a potential presidential campaign if Glenn Youngkin the governor could run the table turn the legislature read the opposite, of course happened, and as Sabbado writes on Twitter, clearance sale, he writes, Jim All Youngin for President twenty four merchandise of free my pillow comes with all purchases over a dollar, no returns. Did Glenn Youngkin just surrender his chances to be president?
Oh? Absolutely?
And I think he kind of had already because he wasn't running.
And is that just for this cycle or ever?
Oh, I don't know about ever. Voters don't have that long. But you know, he was styled as the guy that could unite the party, that the conservatives could get behind, but then the moderates who could win in the suburbs. And you know the problem you and I have talked in the past about abortion, and that this was like, you know, the Republicans have been chasing that car for a long time and then finally the dog.
Caught the car.
Well, the theory was Youngkin had a new message on abortion that could appeal to the suburbs and they could win on And that message was clearly and roundly repudiated last night, both in Virginia and Ohio. And so not only did they catch the car Joe, the car blew up on them.
And so now.
Everyone one is sitting here saying, what are we going to say about abortion? Because the message we thought we had just didn't work in a place that we all thought it should. And Yonkin is going to take a whole bunch of that responsibility from a whole bunch of very angry Republicans today.
Well, yeah, he was upfront about it.
He told people that if Republicans took power, they would implement a fifteen week ban.
So let's extrapolate this.
You're preparing a twenty four campaign for president, or you're advising at Jim Messina, what did you learn last night that you might not have known otherwise that you can actionalize in the next year.
Two things, One, it's interesting to look at who turned out last night. There wasn't massive turnout in these places. Both parties didn't get the historic turnout they got in the last couple elections. What that means is that both parties are going to have to worry a little bit more about turning out their own voters. And the second thing with you and I just talked about, Joe, is I think both parties were waiting to see if abortion was still an issue. It clearly was an issue in Dobbs.
It clearly was an issue in the twenty twenty two midterms. But you know, there was some view in both parties that maybe that issue had gone away, not gone away. Absolutely, look at the Ohio number thirteen points, like nothing passes by thirteen points.
It passed by more than the free weed initiative.
Like come on, and then Pennsylvania spring court race last night, and then in all those Virginia.
Louden County seats.
So the other thing I learned is both parties are going to be talking about abortion next year as well.
You mentioned Louden County.
Not to get too hyper local for our listeners around the country and around the world, but trends rights were just a very big deal in that area.
It helped to get Glenn Youngkin elected.
In fact, on having parents become more involved in curriculum and policies like these, was that a rebuke to some extent?
How do you read into it?
Yeah, I think I'm not sure it was a rebuke.
I mean it could be.
I think that largely abortion became a bigger issue. You know, I also think that Youonkin wasn't.
On the ballot.
You know, this is the problem that Republicans have had with Trump. It's a problem we had as Democrats without Obama on the ballot. Can you turn your voters out without you on the ballot? And so far the data for both parties is it's hard And last night those Yonkin swing voters in Loudon County went Democrat. And you know, and so they're both parts are looking up today to say, is Virginia really a swing state in the presidential election?
Well, we're looking at as many as six states based on our reporting, that could have abortion on the ballot in twenty twenty four. Obviously it's not going to be a national vote, but it could be a national issue. To your point, to what extent did Joe Biden's successful outcomes state by state depend on abortion being on the ballot, It's a great question.
I don't think that's how it works, because I think it doesn't need to be in the ballot. I think, you know, this will be the first election since jobs where the presidential election could be a referendum on abortion, because you're going to have very clear difference. Trump has said repeatedly, you know I'm proud to appointed these judges. I'm the guy who got rid of rov Wade. Biden said repeatedly, I want to pass the bill to codify
a ro v Wade. And in those swing states, to your point, it doesn't matter if it's on the ballot, it's going to be a choice between two very different theories of the case to presidential campaigns.
And these swing women voters.
That you know, decide presidential elections in Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, in Milwaukee suburbs in Wisconsin, they are going to want to know about people's stance on these issues, no matter if it's on a state referendum, because largely abortion is a national issue for these voters and proven that over and over in the last year.
How about that, I haven't asked you, asked you about the Donald Trump effect, and I don't know if you even see one. He was blaming, I think, as he put it, the stench of Mitch McConnell for Daniel Cameron's lost lost in Kentucky last evening where Andy Basheer, the Democrat, wins re election. You're talking about some broad strokes. Here was Donald Trump one of them in this election?
Or not.
He was.
In the twenty twenty two midterm election, Joe, the most determinative factor of how you were going to vote as a swing voter, exit polls showed was your view of Donald Trump. And the problem the Republicans have of Donald Trump is he's an amazing turnout machine, but he tends to endorse these candidates that are hard to win statewide.
And the Kentucky race was less about his candidate, more about the Democrats nominated a very conservative Democratic, very successful governor, and one by five points in a state where Donald Trump won by twenty and so that's, you know, that's about good candidates. And so for twenty twenty four, both parties need to nominate people who can win in some.
Of these states.
And Trump keeps endorsing folks that are really problematic to win in general elections. And that's not Mitch McConnell's fault. That's Donald Trump's fault. And so I'm sure that this morning, you know, you have a very angry Mitch McConnell.
Well, so what do you make of all of these polls on many of them on a national level, But you mentioned Wisconsin and we've seen another one today Georgia the CNN poll. Do you believe the conventional wisdom that Joe Biden can only beat Donald Trump?
Or could a lot change in the next year?
Oh?
A lot good change. And it's not me trying to spin your Joe. It's just history, right exactly this time twelve years ago, this weekend's The New York Times magazine put Barack Obama on the cover and said he only had a seventeen percent chance to win based on the polls, and he was toast. That was their words. Is Obama toast? He trailed in every single battleground state, as by the way, Joe did George Bush at the same time in his
election cycle, as did Bill Clinton. So you know, there's lots of bed wedding Democrats out there who are losing their minds. There's lots of cocky Republicans. Both of them just need to have a very big beer and realize, to Joe's point, all this can change, and we are a year away, which is a lifetime in American politics, just a lifetime, and you know, the issues could largely be very different. Who thought two months ago we'd be
talking about war in the Middle East? And who knows what's going to be going on with China, just the issue that could be wildly different. And so I don't think these polls tell us really anything except for the country's probably not super jacked up to have a rematch.
Well, I'll tell you it's interesting you use that term. I was at the White House this morning and spoke with a sea and your official who referred to bed wetting and rubber sheets and was making the same point that you were, Jim. So to the extent that you can, you know, get to the issues you can control, knowing that most people will probably vote first on the economy, You've already got the abortion matter. It sounds like covered here.
What do you do for the next year to try to turn around this disconnect between polling numbers and what this White House frames as strong economic data.
Yeah, you do two things.
First of all, to your point, they've got to get this economic message out, and it's hard. Swing voters only think about politics four minutes a week, and they're just not looking at the data the way you and I are, and so they got to continue to wail away at this and it takes a long time. Joe Biden in twenty twenty, you lost the question of the who's better on the economy, but won the presidency. You know, can he do that again? They don't want to try. They
want to win the economic argument. And the second thing they got to do is make this a binary choice between them and Donald Trump. And that's how they won last time. And so the question is when they start that. Right now, they're just talking about their record, which I think is right because they've got more work to do with these swing voters on it. But eventually they will pivot and be very contrast forward message why they are
better than Biden. Those two things have to happen to win a presidential election for both sides.
Here, how much does actually determining your rival factor into the way that you're presenting the candidate, not in terms of oppo or how you're going to run against somebody, but once you know, all right, it's Donald Trump, or it's Nikki Haley, or it's Ron De Santis, this is the Joe Biden we want to put forward.
You know, it doesn't as much as you think. When I ran President Obama's re election.
Campaign, you know, we obviously cared very deeply about who came out of the Republican primary. We were hoping it wasn't going to be around me, but it was. But what we learned was that you just had to control your own destiny, and you had to get your message out, and then you had to de buying your opponent. And you know, the Biden campaign is advantaged by this primary process the Republicans are going through because in a very competitive primary, they've all had to endorse the six week
abortion ban, which is just horrible politics. They've all had to endorse some of these other really controversial things like cutting Social Security Medicare, and so you know that's helpful to Team Biden that no matter who comes out of that primary, they have taken those positions.
They're handing out and planting dark brand in signs in Miami today. I want one of these lawn signs, I have to admit, Jim. I wonder though, if that is going to be the angle here. Does Joe Biden need to scare people a little bit when it comes to Donald Trump or is it going to be city on a hill. I've got the long view as a man of experience, what's the approach in the tone of this campaign?
Well, look, if I was them, and thank god, I'm not advising Donald Trump because I'd kill myself. But if I was, I would take a page out of Reagan and do the city on the Hill and try to paint the picture. He has no ability to do that and no sort of interest, and so their theory is going to be burned down. Joe Biden, I just don't think that's how voters think about it. I think they
want something to vote for. I think the lesson of Barack Obama, the lesson of George Bush, the lesson of Bill Clinton, the lesson of ron O Reagan, is that positive matters as much as negative and more in some ways, especially when you're trying to do the two things you and I talked about, Joe, which is turn voters out
of your party and do swing voters. Your Party's not going to get super jacked about, you know, a year of negative they're going to hear you say something, and so I think, you know, Team Trump has got to learn that lesson from last time.
Well, this has been a seminar as usual, and you've been incredibly generous with your time.
Jim.
I'll ask you lastly about one thing that happened in Ohio. We haven't really talked about, and that was the vote to legalize marijuana. Ohio now the twenty fourth state to legalize the recreational use of cannabis. Why does it remain so controversial here in the nation's capital.
It is crazy because people are still fighting old politics, and you have a bunch of older members of Congress who haven't seen what their constituents want. To your point, it's all over the country, Red states, Blue states, My home state, red state of Montana did it like, it's just not controversial at the state level, they're passing hugely. The only place that hasn't gotten the message is this
ten square logic free zone called Washington, DC. Sooner or later they got to kind of wake up and realize it if only Joda tax it right, because eventually to do some of the things like reduce the depths at which we need to do.
By the way, you're going to have some.
Tax increases, and why not tax it, especially when twenty five states have already legalized it. They won't even let federal banks deal in the money, which is just really stupid. So hopefully they're going to wake up and take yes for an answer.
I'll be curious to hear if Joe Biden has much to say about that on the campaign trail Moving forward, Jim, great pleasure, good to see you, and many thanks, as I said, for all your time. Jim Assina not only runs the Messina Group, former deputy chief of staff to President Barack Obama who helps to orchestrate the reelection of Barack Obama. It's always fascinating to get inside his head for a moment here as we get these little snapshots.
We've got a year ago, but these.
Little snapshots along the way in this campaign are what will make you a lot smarter to understand the final results. Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.